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Inside Politics
October Jobs Report Exceeds Expectations Despite GM Strike; Trump Switching His Residency from New York to Florida; Warren Releases Plan to Finance Medicare for All. Aired 12:30-1p ET
Aired November 01, 2019 - 12:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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[12:31:07] NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Better than expected jobs report out today helping push the S&P and Nasdaq to all-time highs this morning, and giving the president something positive to tweet about amid all the impeachment news. And right now, you can see the Dow currently up about 250 points, and that's good news if you're in the stock market. And today's solid jobs numbers came despite the extended GM strike and slower third- quarter growth.
We got CNN's Christine Romans and she's got the breakdown.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Nia, steady hiring again in the month. And what we also learned is the summer was a little stronger than we had expected. August and September were higher, in October, 120,000 new jobs created in the economy. The unemployment, 3.6 percent still near a 50-year low, it did go up one- tenth of a percent probably because three 25,000 people came into the labor market. That's something you like to see 10 years into an economic expansion. People comfortable with what they're hearing about the labor market from their friends and their family and the headlines and coming in and trying to get a job.
Let's take a look at where the sectors are higher in the food services business. Manufacturing, that is a hundred percent of the GM strike. That GM strike took almost 50,000 workers out of the labor market for about six weeks for 41 days. And when you look at manufacturing, we'll be watching this carefully, this is where you're feeling the brunt of the trade war. But that last column there that is 100 percent of the GM strike.
X the GM strike, you're still seeing the manufacturing market a little bit wobbly here. The average job creation now for the year is about 167,000 net new jobs each month. You can see that is still steady hiring by American employers, but it's not quite as robust as we've seen in years past.
Nia?
HENDERSON: Thanks, Christine.
And we've got Jeanna Smialek with the New York Times. She is going to join the conversation. And you heard Christine there talk about the softening, right in the manufacturing sector showing that graphic. How worried should the president be about this softening, right? This was his big promise that these plants would come rolling back and folks would be having jobs and employed in the sector.
JEANNA SMIALEK, FEDERAL RESERVE AND ECONOMICS REPORTER: So I think it's a slightly complex answer because on one hand, slowing down in manufacturing independently is not going to be a huge deal for the overall economy, it's just a small portion of the economy. It's about 12 percent of employment.
I think what is more important is if you see that manufacturing slows down, spillover in other sectors. We haven't really seen that in a meaningful way, yet although you have seen some wobbly service indices. So if you -- if that would be sustained and if you would see a broader slowing in hiring, I think that would be a problem. Today's jobs report was really a positive sign that that isn't happening yet or if it isn't happening, it isn't happening in a concerted way.
HENDERSON: And this summer there was some concern about a recession. I guess some of these numbers put that to bed, some of those fears. But there is a permanent investor that essentially saying Trump is playing with fire.
"Trump's immigration and trading policies are hurting business confidence, according to a prominent investor. Trump is playing with fire. If the president stays on the current course, economic data will be weaker by the time of the election, no question." And this is from JP Morgan Asset Management Chairman Michael Cembalest. What do you make of his comments?
SMIALEK: So I think one thing that is really important to remember about these job data, in particular, is that they are a little bit backward-looking in the sense that the labor market takes a long time to respond to shocks. And so I think what is being (INAUDIBLE) and what is important to remember is that we are seeing business investment really slow, you can see signs that uncertainty is starting to affect the broader economy. It's not clear how much of that is just a global growth slowdown versus the trade war, but to the extent to which it is the trade war, I think you could really see that slow down in business investment begin to echo through the rest of the economy. And that is a real source of concern just because we are 10 years into an expansion it's getting a little long in the tooth.
[12:35:03] This is not a moment where you want to sort of play with those vulnerabilities.
HENDERSON: But you do find -- when I go into Target or Marshalls or Walmart and Piggly Wiggly, folks were there and they're shopping, the lines are long, so consumer confidence still pretty good.
SMIALEK: Yes, consumer confidence is pretty high. Consumer spending looks excellent. The consumer is really holding up the entire economy right now. I think any time you have your entire economy resting on sort of one leg though, it sort of -- it's very nature (INAUDIBLE) a little bit more wobbly and a little bit more vulnerable. And so I think what you would really like to see is a situation where businesses get back into that game and sort of give a little bit more support to the broader economy especially because that spells a better picture going forward for hiring, I think for wages, et cetera.
HENDERSON: Thanks Jeanna for that report from the New York Times. We appreciate it.
Next, Julian Castro's campaign makes enough money to fight another day.
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[12:40:57] HENDERSON: Topping our political radar, President Trump has invited the World Series champs to the White House on Monday. The Washington Nationals returned to D.C. last night after Wednesday's amazing game seven win over the Houston Astros. Some fans booed the president when he attended Sunday's game five. And the team's victory parade is tomorrow here in Washington, and I will be there.
A big Halloween treat for Julian Castro. After warning supporters that he would have to quit the presidential race unless he raised $800,000 by October 31st, his campaign says he hauled in more than a million for the month from nearly 50,000 donors. Yesterday was his best fundraising day since August and today he's back in Iowa.
And President Trump no longer wants to be a New Yorker. In a three- part tweet, he announced he's moving his permanent residence to Palm Beach, Florida and will live at Mar-a-Lago once he's out of the White House. Hopefully, he says five years from now. The president says he cherishes New York and its people but complain city and state politicians treat him badly despite the millions he pays in taxes.
The New York Times' Maggie Haberman broke the story. Here's what she thinks might be behind the change.
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MAGGIE HABERMAN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I remember he's going to pay far less taxes in Florida than he would in New York. Florida has a no-state income tax. There's an irony here became it did taxes (INAUDIBLE) became more onerous in New York after the tax bill that President Trump signed into law. I think that they also -- this says something about his post-presidential future and the recognition that New York is perhaps not such a welcoming place for him.
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HENDERSON: And President Trump -- this is the fun fact, he's visited Mar-A-Lago five times more than Trump Tower in New York. And we've seen from some of the politicians there, essentially they're saying (INAUDIBLE) whatever meme you want to use. And so, yes, I mean, interesting for the president to do this. I'll let Toluse.
TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. As a Floridian (INAUDIBLE). Yes, the president was --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're a Florida man.
HENDERSON: Yes, yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And so as he. So as the president now.
OLORUNNIPA: He is now a Florida man.
HENDERSON: Yes.
OLORUNNIPA: It does fit with his political instincts. Florida now has a Republican governor, Republican -- two Republican senators, a Republican legislature and it's much more welcoming politically for him than it is up in New York where he -- you know, where folks protest and all kinds of unrest whenever he goes back up there. So I do expect the president to be spending more time in Florida. There's also tax benefits so it does make sense that he's a senior citizen from -- going from New York down to Florida. We have a lot of that.
HENDERSON: And when he goes to rally down there, I imagine he's going to be saying, I'm one of you now. I'm a Florida resident. (INAUDIBLE) good for him as he tries to win that seat again.
Up next, can Mayor Pete (INAUDIBLE) 2007 Barack Obama in Iowa.
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TERRI HALE, IOWA VOTER: You know, back in 2007 about this time, we heard people saying America is not ready for a black president. And we hear people saying, I'm OK with it but my neighbor is not ready for -- he says America is not ready for a gay president. But we believe that Iowans will rally around the experience that Pete has.
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[12:48:47] HENDERSON: Senator Elizabeth Warren is campaigning in Des Moines, Iowa. Let's listen in.
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- it's working for all of us. and Medicare for All is a part of that.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) for people who work in private insurance and all the people here in Des Moines who work in private (INAUDIBLE), where do they go and work on private insurance (INAUDIBLE).
WARREN: So if you've had a chance to read the plan, you'll see no one gets left behind. Some of the people currently working in health insurance will work in other parts of insurance. In life insurance and auto insurance and car insurance. Some will work for Medicaid. And there is a five-year transition support for everyone. Because what this is about is how we strengthen America's middle-class and how we make sure that in transitions, no one gets left behind. It's right there in the plan and it's fully paid for.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you building on Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All plan in this plan that you put out? Have you talked to him or have you reached out to about what you've done here?
WARREN: I called him but he hasn't returned my call yet.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Senator, Mayor Buttigieg says this is heading towards a two-way race between you and him. Do you agree?
WARREN: Look, I'm just out here talking about why I'm running for president. And for me, it's based on a lifetime of work.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you feel like you're the frontrunner?
WARREN: I feel like I'm out here every day talking about why I'm running.
[12:50:03] I've spent my lifetime fighting for working families. And today I got to announce a plan where working families who are projected to spend $11 trillion over the next 10 years can see those costs go to zero. A plan where people who are struggling right now to figure out how they're going to manage their healthcare bills will see the solution. A plan for someone who has good health insurance but who right now faces rising premiums, rising co-pays, rising deductibles, rising out of pockets for healthcare coverage that isn't covered see a solution.
You know, that's the role I think the government ought to play. It shouldn't be on the side of giant insurance companies and protecting their profits. It shouldn't be on the side of the giant drug companies and protecting their profits. It ought to be on the side of the American people and making sure that American families have a real chance to build some economic security. And dealing with healthcare costs without having to richen their pockets for $11 trillion in payments over the next 10 years, that's going to be a real boost for a lot of families across this country.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Senator, your plan here is built on a lot of revenues including immigration reform, a lot of different ways that you're going to pay for this. But how are you going to ensure the American people that you're going to pass (INAUDIBLE)?
WARREN: Look, this is what I believe that democracy is all about. You get out, you dream big, and you fight hard for what you believe in. We talked about the things that Americans support across this country. We get out there and fight for it.
Look, the revenue projections in this bill are entirely backed up by President Obama's chief labor economist. These are all things we can do. But people have been so long talking about just what isn't possible. They talk about dreaming small, no. We need to be an America that dreams big, that gets out there and aims high and then fights for it. Fights for things that most American people want to see.
People want to see an America where they can get healthcare from the doctors they trust, not just the ones the insurance companies tell them they have to go to. They want to be able to get the drug care or the drug prescriptions that their doctor recommends and not have some insurance companies say I'm sorry we don't give you that drug, we give you some other drug.
People just want a chance to get their healthcare without going broke. To get their kids educated without getting crushed by student debt. To have a chance to get a job and be able to pay. Or not have to pay for childcare. These are the things we can do and we can do them together. We just have to get out there and fight for the.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (INAUDIBLE) at this point in the race had to put out a plan this detailed or do you feel like --
HENDERSON: And that's Elizabeth Warren in Des Moines, Iowa, answering questions about the details for how she would pay for Medicare for All. We're going to Jeff Zeleny who is there in Iowa.
Jeff, what did you make of what Elizabeth Warren said here, her responses to these questions that she's been dodging by over these last many weeks?
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Nia, there's no question that Senator Warren is trying to stop some of the questions that her rivals have been asking her about how she's going to pay for the plan. But I think the most significant thing we have seen in this that now there is daylight between her and Bernie Sanders on the Medicare for All plan. She has famously said repeatedly I'm with Bernie now she's not with Bernie in terms of how this Medicare for All plan is going to be paid for.
So this is going to be part of the campaign discussion and dialogue and debate for the next three months until the Iowa caucuses. The politics of this have changed tremendously over the last year or so. It was seeming at that time that many senators who are rushing to get on Bernie's bill if you will for Medicare for All. Now the politics don't look quite as certain for that. There's, you know, much more of a moderate streak in the party about is this possible and how it can be paid for.
So she does say that middle-class taxes will not go up, but there are still questions as her plan is being studied over, you know, if some of the estimates of how expensive this plan would be are actually a realistic here. So this is not the end of this discussion at all, Nia. It's quite likely the beginning of it. Certainly, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Joe Biden are going to be asking more questions about the -- how realistic her plan actually is.
HENDERSON: And possibly questions for Bernie Sanders as well because he has said oh, you know, details don't matter quite yet. She noted there that she called Bernie Sanders to talk about this plan but he hadn't called her back yet.
ZELENY: Indeed. I mean -- and this is something that they have been together, you know, on this issue, so we are seeing a bit of a separation. But Nia, what I'm seeing on the ground here as all the candidates are arriving here in Iowa for, you know, a big event, the biggest event before the Iowa caucuses is that there is, you know, a divergence here. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on one side and then there is a moderate group, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar.
[12:55:06] So this is a real question that Democrats are going to be answering here. What direction do they see the party? It all (INAUDIBLE) on electability. Who's the strongest candidate to take on Donald Trump? Of course, Obama 12 years ago scored well at this dinner but there was no incumbent in the White House at that point.
Nia?
HENDERSON: That's right, Jeff. Thanks for that context. Less than a hundred days to go before those caucuses.
Thanks for joining us on INSIDE POLITICS. Brianna Keilar starts after a quick break.
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