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House Panel to Begin Debating Articles of Impeachment; Swing District Dems Still Considering Vote on Articles of Impeachment; New CNN Polls Released on Two Major Super Tuesday Contests; 2020 Frontrunners Manage Unfavorability Ratings Among Dem Voters; Trump's Impeachment Defense Plays Out on the Airwaves. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired December 11, 2019 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:32:35]

JOHN KING, CNN HOST: An important day on Capitol Hill. Markup day for the articles of impeachment against the president of the United States. Opening statements slated for 7 p.m. tonight, debate in the Judiciary Committee starts tomorrow, and expect a final committee vote by the end of this year.

The rush is partly because of the calendar. Democrats want the full House to vote by next Friday. That's this year's last legislative day.

But the hurry is also a reflection of the math. Republicans are solid so Democrats see little or no point of waiting trying to win more GOP impeachment votes. And there are some small signs of potential Democratic jitters from members getting pummeled by anti-impeachment ads back home.

Add those two factors up and the speaker's view is to get a full floor vote as soon as possible.

Let's get straight to Capitol Hill and CNN's Manu Raju. Manu, what is the state of play as we prepare for this very important hearing tonight?

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Democrats are moving pretty quickly to have this vote in the House. Yes, you mentioned in the opening statements in the House Judiciary Committee tonight, expect Republicans to object to that not having witnesses come forward. And also tomorrow, the votes a very messy, day-long affair over the articles of impeachment in the House.

The Judiciary Committee that will ultimately lead likely by tomorrow evening in the approval of those articles, those two articles sending them to House floor for action probably by midweek next week. And that's where some of the key votes will take place. People who are -- who come from swing districts, Democrats in particular, people who did not come here or campaign on impeachment but now have to cast these critical votes about whether or not to impeach the president on two counts. And I've spoken to a number of these freshmen Democrats from swing districts and a lot of them still are holding their cards closely to their vest contending that they're still looking at all the evidence. And they want to hear from their constituents. And they're making it clear, they're hearing a lot from both sides.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Are you ready to vote for them?

REP. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-MI): No. What I'm going to do right now is to do what I was trained to do as a CIA officer which is sit by myself with a full body of information, the articles, the reports on both sides, right, both Democratic and Republican, the rebuttal. I'm going to sit with the House rules. I'm going to sit with the articles of impeachment from prior impeachments.

I think it was a responsible way to go to limit it to two articles. And I'm going to look seriously at the two that were put in front of me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: And that last point is critical because she came aboard getting behind an impeachment inquiry after it was announced by the speaker it would focus on the Ukraine matter, whether the president abused his office and leverage the power of his office in pushing that cont -- now open investigations into his political rivals.

[12:35:09]

And when I asked whether or not she'd be opened to that third count of obstruction of justice that Democrats put aside, she was glad they focused on those two. So, John, we'll see how other freshmen like her in difficult districts come down. At the moment, lot of them not saying how they'll vote.

John?

KING: It will be fascinating to watch as the markup begins tonight and the next few days. Manu, appreciate the live reporting on Capitol Hill.

And there have been just a small number of Democrats having sort of -- it's not even official conversation amongst themselves about should we consider censure, is there another way to go here. Listen to two of the more senior Democrats, more liberal members saying absolutely not.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. PETER WELCH (D-VT): To diminish it with a censure I think would create a lot of dissension within our ranks.

REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-NY): Why in God's name is any Democrat, you know, trying to lower the bar. I think this is a moment where we need to get clear about right and wrong and just listen to what your mama always told you which is just do the right thing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Is there -- or how deep, if any, is the speaker nervous about losing Democrats? We know a couple who -- two who refused -- did not vote for the -- just to proceed. We assume there are no votes. How far we think this is going to go?

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think it's going to go all that deep. And I think the speaker knows that she is likely to lose some Democrats and potentially beyond the two that she lost on the vote on opening the inquiry, setting the rules for the inquiry. But I do think that this decision is sort of a sign of the times that we're in, how different this impeachment is than previous impeachments have been. That that discussion among that small group of Democratic moderates about whether they could potentially steer away from going down the road of impeachment and instead do a censure vote which the theory of that is well, we could get some Republicans theoretically to join us in censuring the president, and then we would have a chance to say that what he did was wrong, we think it's misconduct but we wouldn't have to go all the way to voting for articles of impeachment. They recognized that there are very few if any Republicans who would be willing to do that.

Whereas this conversation back during the Clinton impeachment was in much more live discussion, it didn't end up happening but there was at least a chance of some bipartisan supports, some actual momentum behind that. That is just not the environment that we're in and I think they recognized that. And I think many of the people who are thinking of that are likely in the end to vote for these articles of impeachment however nervous they may be about the consequences.

KING: And to that point in part, whether you're watching at home, whether you like it or not, whether you agree with the president or not, whether you think he should be impeached or not, the president has done a very good job politically keeping the Republicans in line. Right now there is zero evidence of any House Republicans breaking. There are some Senate Republicans who say they're going to listen, they're open-minded but there is zero evidence that there is anywhere near enough support to convict the president if -- even if one or two Republicans broke. And I don't think that's on the table today in part because the presi -- because of the president's tweets, because of the loyalty to the president's party, and because as he travels to country he continues to make the point.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You saw their so-called articles of impeachment today. People are saying they're not even a crime, what happened? All of these horrible things. Remember, bribery and this and that. Where are they? They sent these two things and not even a crime. This is the lightest, weakest impeachment.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KING: Again, it's just the world we live in. The Democrats say we kept it narrow, we kept it focused to make it strong. The president says only two, it must be weak.

MAGGIE HABERMAN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. I mean, I think that -- look, I think that the president and his team have been basically moving on a pretty incremental time period response, right? They're taking things not just day by day, hour by hour. And so it is not a surprise that they are taking the fact that there are fewer articles of impeachment than there might have been. We know that there were discretions about something broader and saying look, that's -- it's (INAUDIBLE), there's nothing specific about Mueller for instance. And so they feel like that is some kind or at least they're going to say that that is a saving grace to them.

But at the end of the day, again, I say this a lot. Don't confuse what the president is saying publicly as this is weak which is what we always terms his opposition with him being OK with this process. He is not OK with this process. He might have become convinced that there are some political upsides for him. He does not want to be an impeached president. That's a really, really small group of people and it's not one he wanted to be in.

KING: No president wants to be impeached. Every president then has to try to turn it politically, that's what a president has to do especially a president heading into re-election. But that's an excellent point to make, no president wants to be impeached.

We'll come back to this a bit later.

Up next, some encouraging news for Vice President Biden -- former Vice President Biden and some new CNN polling looking at the two biggest Super Tuesday prizes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:44:26]

KING: New CNN polls releasing this hour give a glimpse down the 2020 nominating road a bit. Down to when the race shifts from small state at a time to multi-state primary dates rich with the ultimate prize, convention delegates. March 3rd is 2020 Super Tuesday. California and Texas, the two biggest prizes. Let's take a look.

As you look at the map, 14 states plus American Samoa vote on the first big Super Tuesday, 1,344 delegates at stake in that election. And just shy of half of that just in two states, 415 in California, 228 in Texas. The candidates will be competing heavily in those.

[12:45:01]

Let's look at California. A top-tier, Biden, Sanders, Warren very tightly packed. The former vice president statistically on top but that doesn't count, it's within the margin of error, 21, 20, 17. Followed by Mayor Buttigieg at nine, Andrew Yang at six, Michael Bloomberg at five percent. A very cluster top-tier in a very important state.

Let's break down how this works out. One reason Bernie Sanders is running strong in California so competitive, and you see this in Nevada as well, his support among Latino voters. Biden at 27, Sanders at 25, Elizabeth Warren at 10 when you look at the critical Latino vote. Once you get past Iowa or New Hampshire, the electorate gets more diverse especially in California.

This is interesting when you look at Democrats by age in California. Former Vice President Biden struggles among younger voters. Among those under the age of 45, only 13 percent. Senator Sanders strongest there. Among all the voters that's over 45 though, Biden has the edge, 27 percent. Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg rounding up the pack there.

Texas, the candidates aren't in Texas as much just yet least to find race but familiarity seems to be at play here. The former vice president with a much bigger lead, 35 percent to 15 percent for Senator Sanders, 13 for Warren. And you look deeper, you look at non- white voters, who's best on issues, Biden has a healthy lead at the moment in the big state of Texas.

You see there Bloomberg, he's been spending, he's now over a hundred million dollars in TV spending, starting to show up in the Democratic polls but still way down here. Joe Biden up here in the state of Texas, Joe Biden says keep spending, Mike, I'm not worried.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Monmouth and Quinnipiac, they both have you as the clear frontrunner and Michael Bloomberg despite all the ads and all the million of dollars at five percent. So, what does that tell you about what Democrats are looking for?

JOE BIDEN (D-DE), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Michael, keep spending. It has been a party that's decided that everybody deserves an equal shot. And when people think that somebody is in a position where they have a distinct or unfair advantage, they're not happy about it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now all these later state polls will change once somebody starts winning. Some is going to win in Iowa, some is going to win in New Hampshire, South Carolina. But it is a reminder especially as you get to the more crowded, number one it's a lot of money, you have 14 states including California. TV markets are expensive. And b, then you get to a place where the electorate is so much more diverse which makes it complicated for the candidates.

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: It does. I mean, I do think that Bloomberg and even Tom Steyer examples do show there is something money can't buy. It's a little bit but it's -- maybe not enough over the long haul of this race. And I do think the challenge is going to be that some of these candidates are going to have to figure out -- like if you're Bloomberg and you want to spend a hundred million dollars now, we should note a lot of that hundred million dollars is actually further out in the primary process because he's not competing in these first four states.

But at some point, he has to interact with the other candidates. And it's going to be very difficult to do that given the debate rules which are not just polling numbers but also fundraising numbers. If he's not raising money from voters, it's going to be hard for him to qualify to get up on the stage against Joe Biden and show voters --

KING: Unless they change the rules after the first (INAUDIBLE). That's a possibility they change the rules for the later contests.

HABERMAN: You're saying that about Bloomberg getting on this debate. I don't think Mike Bloomberg wants to be in debate.

PHILLIP: And maybe he doesn't want to be. But I do think that Joe Biden is the candidate to beat when you're talking about black and Hispanic voters. So at some point some of these candidates are going to have to figure out how to chip away at that. And it's not going to happen by osmosis.

KING: Right, Buttigieg still has the problem with non-white voters. We talk a lot in the counties of South Carolina when you look at the California and Texas polls it's the same issue for him. Elizabeth Warren a bit of a plateau, is that a fair way to put it as she starts looking at these polls?

TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, she's really been hurt by this debate over Medicare for All. She eventually put out her plan and her numbers have not gone up since then. In most polls they've actually gone down.

Biden has had a pretty strong run of polls over the past few weeks. It'll be very interesting to see if that is reflected once his fundraising numbers come out. The last time he put out fundraising numbers, they were a little bit anemic, a little bit weak. And because he wants to compete in some of these later states to sort of try to secure the nomination if he doesn't do well in the early states, he's going to need to have strong fundraising. And it'll be very interesting to see if the polling that he's getting helps build up his fundraising momentum.

KING: That's a great point because he has proven resilient in the polls, to some surprisingly resilient in the polls to his credit, but you get into that, you're going to compete in California in a contested race, that's a lot of money. And he has been behind both Warren, Sanders, and even Buttigieg and so far. We'll see how that one plays out.

I just want to show something as we get closer to elections. I don't want to be over obsessed about polls but when you did -- this data is from Monmouth polls. As candidates are out there and you're on the track for a while, you get scraped up. That's what happens, you mentioned the Medicare for All debate for Senator Warren. Mayor Buttigieg has been challenged about his experience, about his work for McKinsey, the consulting firm.

And I just want to note, again, I'm not making over significance of this but you do -- this is what -- watch the trajectory of your unfavorable rating among Democratic voters to be going that way, you want your poll numbers going that way not your unfavorable as we get closer to the actual vote.

HABERMAN: So I have a bit of contrarian view on this which is basically since 2014 we have seen that almost every elected official is upside down in approval rating.

[12:50:06]

Voters look at all politicians pretty badly and so it's not a surprise that over the course of a race, everybody is -- any candidate who's getting a lot of media attention, their negatives are going to go up. And the question is going to be are their negatives higher than the other candidates' negatives.

It gets into a danger zone but I think it's a little different in an era where it's not -- I mean, remember, we had in 2016 we had two candidates running against each other, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who were upside down in approval ratings. So I'm not sure it's as predictive as it once was. That's all.

KING: That's a -- it's a very valid point. And to that -- just to the point, I just showed you Buttigieg and Warren, I just want to show you now Biden and Sanders who are more well-known to Democratic voters nationally.

So you do see a spike. Everybody went up in August. They have to go back and see why are people especially mad at politicians (INAUDIBLE). They didn't want their summer vacation interrupted by any of it. But everybody's unfavorable went up in August and then you see a little bit of bouncing around. But it is -- you just -- to me, it's just the Democratic race is getting chippy because we're getting closer to the votes. And when that happens, you get bruised. That's called life.

DAVIS: Right. They've been in it in a while and they've been at each other for a -- you know, we've seen some more of these debates play out of, you know, each candidate criticizing the other's policies, in some cases having this sorts of moments on the campaign trail that people seize on. And so, you know, you're likely to see that continue. And the question I think to Maggie's point is whether that ends up really affecting what the choices that voters start to make when they start to go -- you know, when the primary start to actually take place.

KING: Right. And as the Democrats are fighting it out, it's interesting the president's campaign also spending some big money as you push through some of these issues on television. He's got a new TV ad package that is up right now. And if you could roll that up for me, I can see the money numbers for you there.

Since September 19th, Team Trump, $4 million just on impeachment- related TV ads. That's in addition to some digital spending the president has done on this issue. A little sample of what you're seeing on TV.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Democrats would rather focus on impeachment and phony investigations, ignoring the real issues. But that's not stopping Donald Trump. The Democrats are trying to overthrow President Trump, undo the 2016 election, and silence our voices. Don't let them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: We have a map. I just want to show you the map of the TV spending here because there's two goals here. One is to help the president in the impeachment fight, and then to help him in his re- election campaign. But it's also if you look at some of these states, it's clear, Maine is one of them for example, Senator Susan Collins is there. To keep Republicans anti-impeachment, to give her essentially air cover or incentive to not go anywhere if you look.

These are battleground states where there are TV spending. That's where the president is going to be worried about his re-election. But there are other purposes as well.

HABERMAN: Yes, there are. I mean, listen, I think that they -- you are seeing the campaign making a certain calculation that has crosscurrents on where they are doing this spending. Another crosscurrent that I was thinking about as we're talking about Biden frankly was those Biden ads that they were airing which were aimed in the four early states aimed at bringing Biden's numbers down. Those actually speak to the limits of what these ads can do especially when the airwaves are getting so saturated. So we'll see.

PHILLIP: It does also strike me that the other thing that the Trump campaign tends to focus on and that they understand pretty well about how Trump has been so successful as a political figure which is that the fervency of his support is important too. How much his people love him is important. And so as much as favorable, unfavorable matters a little bit, I think on the Democratic side too, we got to be looking at how excited are people about the candidates that they're backing because that's how Trump remains so sturdy with his relatively small base is because they keep kind of egging him on with these ads saying your guy is under attack. And I think it does work in that space. And on the Democratic side they've got to figure that part out too especially a Joe Biden where there's a lot of passive support for Biden.

But you see on the Bernie and Warren sides, some more fervency and you're starting to see that with Buttigieg. These things matter too.

KING: That's an interesting point. I was looking deep into our Texas poll that were released today, and the president's numbers are not great. He's under water, his approval rating is under water in Texas which, you know, is a state that's trending a little bit more blue but it's reliably red. He's way under water in California, nobody expects a president to be competitive in California. That's a fundraising stop.

But, on the issue of extremely excited about voting, the Republican numbers are higher. Not that the Democratic numbers are not in any warning zone yet but the Republican numbers are higher which I think is to your point that at the moment with the impeachment, Republicans are stoked. Democrats are still dealing with the family feud, a primary first.

HABERMAN: Right. And Abby makes a great point. I mean, I think the intensity, yes, up here is something that the president's folks are relying on. I think that that may change when there's actually a nominee. But it is certainly true that impeachment and it was very striking at the president's rally last night both when Vice President Pence spoke introducing him, and then when the president spoke that impeachment basically gave them a coat hanger to hang all of these other things on.

And I think you are going to see that for as long as possible. We have no idea whether voters are going to be talking about impeachment in 10 months. They may or may not but for right now, it does serve a political purpose no matter how uncomfortable the president finds it.

[12:55:05]

KING: And he gets to target general election states while the Democrats are still finding it out in the primary. So it's just a huge advantage to be an incumbent. That's why we had three two-term presidencies in a row. One of the reasons anyway.

Thanks for joining us today in the INSIDE POLITICS. We're waiting for the Senate Judiciary Committee to return. Brianna Keilar will pick up our coverage after a quick break. Have a great afternoon.

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