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Dr. Conley: Trump No Longer A Transmission Risk To Others; Trump Poised To Hold In-Person Rally In Florida Monday; Thirty States See COVID-19 Cases Trending Higher; Biden Crosses 270 For First Time In CNN's Electoral College Outlook; Bipartisan Opposition To Trump's Stimulus Offer; Early Vote Shattering Records. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired October 11, 2020 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:25]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN HOST (voice-over): Out of isolation and defiance.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is the single most important election in the history of our country.

KING: Plus, the COVID case count is surging.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you relax, this is what happens. This is just merely sloppiness.

KING: And early voting shatters records. And the challenger thinks big.

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If we show up, we win. We can't just win. We have to win overwhelmingly.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(MUSIC)

KING: Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS. I'm John King. To our viewers in the United States and around the world, thank you for sharing your Sunday.

President says he's feeling great, ready to get back on the road after a week in the hospital, and then isolation because of coronavirus.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We're starting very, very big with our rallies and everything, because we cannot allow our country to become a socialist nation. We cannot let that happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now, the White House called that Saturday speech an official event, but it was all campaign politics. A crowd pulled together by a conservative black Trump ally. The president kept at a distance, though, his doctors insist it is now safe for him to resume public appearances.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Through the power of the American -- the American spirit, I think, more than anything else. Science, medicine, will eradicate the China virus. Once and for all, we'll get rid of it all over the world.

You see big flare ups in Europe, big flare ups in Canada. A very big flare up in Canada. You saw that today. A lot of flare ups, but it's going to disappear.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Notice the president did not specifically mention the flare up right here at home, 30 states now trending in the wrong direction. Nearly 5,000 new American deaths from coronavirus just since the president left the hospital Monday tweeting: Don't be afraid.

His rush to get back campaigning is understandable. Joe Biden has a big lead in this race with 23 days left and millions of Americans voting early.

Just this weekend, with the president in COVID isolation, the former vice president, the Democratic nominee, campaigning in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: America deserves a president who understands what people are going through. You're facing real challenges right now and the last thing you need is a president who exacerbates them.

I'm running as a proud Democrat but I'm going to govern as an American president. I'm going to work as hard for those who don't support me as those who do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: The president's rally scheduled this week includes Florida, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. His doctor hasn't answered a question in a week. But his latest memo does say the president is off medications and cleared to travel.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: They tested the lungs. They checked for the lungs, and they tested it with different machinery. They have incredible stuff I've never seen before, and it tested -- it tested good. Initially, I think they had some congestion in there, but it tested -- ultimately, it tested good.

I have been retested, and I haven't even found out numbers or anything yet, but I've been retested, and I know I'm at either the bottom of the scale or free.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KING: The campaign calculations in a moment. First, the health questions.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky is chief of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital.

Doctor, grateful for your time this Sunday.

You just heard the president there talking about the exams his doctors have given him. This is the latest memo from his doctor, Dr. Sean Conley. I'm happy to report that in decision to the president meeting CDC criteria for safe discontinuation of isolation, this morning's he's no longer considered a transmission risk to others. Now at day ten from symptom onset, fever free for well over 24 hours and all symptoms improved, the assortment of advanced diagnostic tests obtained reveal there is no longer evidence of actively replicating virus.

Does that answer your questions? Would you be confident now based on everything they've made public and what the president said that he's safe to leave the White House, he's safe to travel, he's safe to get on an airplane in close quarters with others, he's safe to have thousands of people come to a political rally?

DR. ROCHELLE WALENSKY, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: Good morning, John.

You know, there's very little medical terminology to decipher what the president has said. What I can tell you from the memo is that, first of all, the CDC does not recommend repeat testing after somebody tests positive. And at that point, it's really a time-based release from isolation. So, you know, I believe he's ten days out from his initial symptoms. If that's case, that puts symptoms Thursday or even Wednesday.

[08:05:04]

And, generally, the CDC guidance says that after ten days and fever free for 24 hours, you are no longer infectious. There are some people who have severe disease who can be infectious to 20 days, but that's even less common.

The president did have sub genomic mRNA testing and other tests that really indicate he likely is not infectious. Whether an indoor rally is a good idea, it certainly is not. That doesn't necessarily speak to the president's individual infectiousness but potentially infectiousness of others.

KING: And what questions do you have? You mentioned Dr. Conley's memos. Whenever I talk to a doctor about it, they all say that's not the way we speak, that's not the way we describe things.

What questions -- what questions do you have and do you think just an American citizen whether they're going to vote for Joe Biden or vote for the president or somebody else? What questions should they have right now? WALENSKY: I would like to know if he had severe disease during his

disease course. He would prolong his duration of isolation if he had severe disease.

I don't put a lot of weight onto his PCR tests because it could be positive for up to three months. What I would like to know as we know he has waning transmissibility, if not no transmissibility at this point, I really like to know what was going on at the time that he had maximum transmissibility.

That is last Thursday, last Wednesday, when he was first developing symptoms, who he was in contact with, when the symptoms developed and what the contact tracing around that has been.

KING: It would be nice if the president's doctor would take some questions as the president prepares to travel the country.

Again, Dr. Walensky, grateful for your time this morning. Thank you very much.

With us now to share their reporting and their insights and the campaign calculations, Jackie Kucinich of "The Daily Beast", Toluse Olorunnipa of "The Washington Post".

Toluse, I want to start with you. In your piece yesterday, you talked about the president's defiance, talk about the president determined to get back out on the campaign trail. Again, the political calculation here is obvious.

Is the campaign confident that their candidate is now up to this?

TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, they're going to take that risk. They're down in the polls and only have three weeks before Election Day and they need to turn things around. So, they're going to risk the health of the campaign and the White House officials by sending the president out there. Even while it's unclear how infectious he might be.

And they're not changing their ways. They're not changing the types of rallies they're going to be doing. They're going to continue to have these massive crowds at airport hangars, no social distancing will be encouraged. Masks will not be required.

They say they have handwashing stations but we've seen in the past all kinds of bad public health behavior at these Trump rallies. And they're going into these and the president has already announced three rallies over the next two or three days over the course of this week. He's going to be traveling across the country. It's going to be in confined spaces on planes even as the White House continues to deal with this really bad outbreak of coronavirus, they're not changing their ways. They're showing defiance.

KING: And to the point about not changing their ways, Jackie Kucinich, the president and his aides said here's a chance sort of to be humble, here's a chance to be more empathetic about this pandemic and its impact on Americans, more than 7.5 million cases, 210,000 plus deaths, we keep counting.

Instead, though, the president has continued as he said from the very beginning, the play it down. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Don't let it dominate you. Don't be afraid of it. You're going to beat it.

I feel like perfect. So I think this was a blessing from God that I caught it. This was a blessing in disguise.

Remember this. When you catch it, you get better and then you're immune.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: In some ways, Jackie, this plays up a contrast. Listen here to Joe Biden. He thinks this is the best way for him to close the campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: Hs reckless personal conduct since his diagnosis, the destabilizing effect it's having our government is unconscionable. He didn't take the necessary precautions to protect himself or others. And the longer Donald Trump is president, the more reckless he gets. How can we trust him to protect this country?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: This issue will be front and center in the final 23 days.

JACKIE KUCINICH, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, absolutely. I mean, this election was always going to be about the coronavirus and the administration's response to coronavirus and the effects on the economy. And on Americans themselves as much as the administration tried to make it about other things, we're back to this.

And in terms of the president always trying to protect strength, left unsaid, in the videos and in that what can only be described as a shamwow commercial for seniors, is that the president's care, his care and the treatments he had access to are not accessible by the majority of Americans. His health care, most people don't have a team of doctors working on them day today.

[08:10:01]

So, the infection, we don't know the severity of his infection, but there's a good chance if someone else caught the same thing he did, they might not have the same results because of the care that he was able to access.

KING: Without a doubt, without a doubt.

And if you look at the state of the race, Toluse, right now, Biden's lead versus Clinton's lead in '16, a lot Republicans are saying, well, we're going to have another comeback, just like we did in 2016.

Biden's lead has been fairly steady. In national polls it's bigger than Hillary Clinton's lead was. We'll go through battleground state polling later in the states.

So, what the president needs a comeback, and we know throughout the pandemic, Dr. Fauci has become a nationally known face on television. I suspect when he sees this new ad from the Trump campaign, he might cringe a bit. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AD ANNOUNCER: President Trump is recovering from the coronavirus, and so is America. Together, we rose to meet the challenge. President Trump tackled the virus head on as leaders should.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF ALLEGERY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: I can't imagine that anybody could be doing more.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Again, Dr. Fauci is regularly repeatedly, just the other day, he said the president held a super spreader event at the White House. Dr. Fauci's view on how the president has handled this and is handling this is a little different than you see on that ad.

OLORUNNIPA: Yeah. That quote came from a couple months ago when Dr. Fauci was a public face of the task force. He's been sidelined. The president embraced other doctors who are more in line with his idea of herd mentality of not taking the virus seriously, of opening up everything immediately and not following public health guidelines.

So, the president has changed his attack, and now we see he has been infected with the virus himself. He's trying to spin that into a positive, saying that he took the virus head on and he was a strong leader that caught the virus and tackled it and fought it and was able to come out successfully, when a lot of Americans realize, as Jackie said, the president had topnotch health care. He caught the virus in part because of the lax public health guidelines at the White House and it's not clear that he's getting a polling bump at all from the fact he tackled this virus in the words of that ad.

Instead his numbers seem to be going down because people think he hasn't taken it seriously enough.

KING: Right, his conduct has been reckless and certainly his numbers going down, Jackie. If you talk to Republican strategists and Senate races and competitive house races and other races down ballot, they see this coming.

Listen to Ted Cruz and the word he uses.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX): If people are going back to work, if they're optimistic, if they're positive about the future, we could see a fantastic election.

But I also think if an Election Day, people are angry and they've given up hope and they're depressed which is what Pelosi and Schumer want them to be, I think it could be a terrible election. I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress. That it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Skip the spin about Pelosi and Schumer. A bloodbath of Watergate proportions. Many Republicans are worried about, again, with three weeks to go.

KUCINICH: All you have to do is listen to Mitch McConnell last week who seemed to be creating distance between himself and the White House, talking about how they handled the virus versus how the Senate handled the virus.

And listen, a lot of the president's allies have ended up catching this virus, be it at the event for Amy Coney Barrett or somewhere else. So, it really is spreading into the campaign. You do -- you hear someone like a Thom Tillis talking about how he should have taken it more seriously.

So, the fact that the majority of the Republican Party kind of went along with the president initially, how he was handling the virus, that seems to be taking a turn as people see how it affects their lives and are looking toward their leaders currently there. Some of them might be saying they don't like what they see.

KING: That's a great way to close that conversation.

Jackie Kucinich, Toluse Olorunnipa, grateful to both of you on this Sunday morning.

Up next for us, we'll crunch the numbers. New COVID-19 on the rise, and because of that, so too are estimates of how many more Americans will die in the weeks and months ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:18:16]

KING: Just yesterday, the president again saying the coronavirus is disappearing. The numbers tell you just the opposite. It is growing and spreading again, right now across the country.

Let's look at our trend map. This is just depressing, 30 states red and orange, just about everywhere 30 states trending in the wrong direction. That means more new coronavirus infections now compared to a week ago. You'll notice essentially the entire northern half of the country where it's getting colder, infections going up.

Thirty states trending the wrong direction, 18 holding steady. Only two states, Texas and Hawaii fewer new infections now compared to a week ago. If you look at the case curve, and this is depressing, no other word.

Yesterday, more than 54,000 cases. Friday, more than 57,000 cases. Back on September 7th, down to 24 hours cases. Before the summer surge, down below 20,000 cases.

Up down some. Now heading back up. Heading back up. You see numbers near 60,000.

What the public health experts worry about is if we went from 20 to 77, what happens if your baseline is 40 and you head up. How high do you go?

Look at the state setting records. Twelve states setting records in their seven-day average of new coronavirus infections, 12 states setting records. That's not disappearing.

And with the new cases, hospitalizations also on the rise in many states. You look here -- Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, just four of the states where hospitalizations now going up as well.

And sadly, sadly, the death curve continues to be high and the projections will go higher. 990 deaths on Friday. You see it came down some. But with the cases, the public health experts tell you it is inevitable this is going to trickle up.

In fact, the IHME model estimates now 394,693 deaths by February 1st, because of the case count, because of behavior.

[08:20:07]

That's an average of 1,500 deaths per day. So, this projection tells you, in IHME's estimate, the death count is going to start going up.

Let's discuss it now. Joining me with his expertise, Ali Mokdad of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Mr. Mokdad, thank you so much for being with us.

You see this number, and I'm just going to bring up the chart here that shows the trend line in your report, if mandates are eased, if governors say forget about masks, forget about social distancing, you actually say it will get much worse, 502 deaths. This is your baseline right now if behavior stays the same, 394,000 deaths.

You say it could drop by about 80,000 deaths if people would universally be using their masks. Walk us through how you get to these conclusions.

ALI MOKDAD, PROFESSOR OF HEALTH METRICTS, UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON: Good morning, John.

Yes, what we are doing right now was projecting what we're seeing based on behavior and what's happening in terms of relaxing the mandate. We're saying 395,000 by February 1st. But if 95 percent of Americans wear their mask when they are outside their homes, we could see that number drop to 214. We're talking about 79,000 lives saved. Or 44 percent of the deaths from now until February 1st.

In the first time of our history, we have a no side effects to save a lot of lives and we should do it. If we let everything go, relaxing our mandates, you're talking about 503,000 deaths between now and February 1st.

KING: And you mention it so calmly there, it's simple, inexpensive way to save lives, protect yourselves and yet, we have a problem.

I just want to use New York as an example right now because we all remember, New York went up the curve early. Way up the hill. It was horrible. Came down and has stayed down.

If you look at recent months, you stayed down. If you take the long view, you would look at this and say New York is in good shape. If you look at the last two months, you see New York starts to trickle back up in terms of the cases.

That's just New York. You're starting to see this again, the positivity rate is low in New York. If you look at New York, New England, up through the Northeast, we're starting to see this creep back up.

Is it inevitable that the whole country is going to start the second wave, or are there ways to stop it?

MOKDAD: Unfortunately, it will head up because of the fall and winter season. This virus loves the cold weather and we're moving indoors. So, we have to be extra vigilant. We have seen when you look at the Southern Hemisphere, what we've seen in south Africa and Chile, even with all the measures they put in place, the COVID-19 kept going up because it follows what we see in the seasonality.

We can't prevent it but we have to be extra vigilant as we come indoor because we are as humans sometimes we feel safer indoors, especially among our friends. This is a message for all of us. Be vigilant even when we move indoors and stay away from each other, otherwise, yes, it could go much higher.

KING: And you mention the unfortunate nature going higher. In your latest report, there's also some discussion about the numbers of so- called herd immunity. Meaning if people decide rip it, you hear the term. Once we all get exposed, everybody will be okay.

Your latest report says absolutely not. Walk through some of the numbers, 15 million deaths globally. If the pursuit is herd immunity, 1.2 million deaths in the United States, break those numbers down for us.

MOKDAD: So, John, there are so many unfounded rumors out there saying let's go to herd immunity. What we are seeing because we monitor every country in the world in our estimates, we haven't seen it.

And you have natural experiments going on, if you look what happened at a French area, 70 percent of the citizens were infected. If you look at sum of the patients in Brazil, who've reached 60 percent and the pandemic was still going on.

So, herd immunity to be achieved in the United States means a failure. So, let me explain a little bit more.

Right now in the United States, the only state that reached 25 percent infection is New Jersey. Most of our states are very low right now. As a country we're less than 10 percent.

If we allow this to happen in the United States and we have done this calculation just to put the information out there and tell the public that's not -- herd immunity is not a reality. So, if you look at 40 percent, that's 10 million global deaths. If you reach 40 percent infection in the globe, 850,000 deaths in the United States.

If we go to 60 percent, which we have seen right now in Brazil, as we mentioned, that's 15 million and 1.8 million in the United States.

So we really need to wear our masks, stay away from each other, give our scientists a chance to get a vaccine that's effective to reduce the spread of this virus.

KING: I like the last part, give scientists -- give science a chance and give scientists a chance, maybe listen to them as well. Ali Mokdad, grateful for your insights on this Sunday morning.

Sir, thank you very much.

And next for us, back to politics in the battleground states. Florida and Arizona, live to Florida and Arizona. The president's trails three weeks out, including in areas that were absolutely critical to his 2016 victory.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:29:30]

KING: Three weeks and two days to Election Day, Joe Biden in the driver's seat. A double-digit lead in national polling averages and a lopsided advantage. You see it right here in our CNN electoral outlook.

Yes, President Trump can still win reelection but the hill is steeper because he is struggling everywhere. And by struggling everywhere, if you look at this map, we have Joe Biden at 290 electoral votes right now in our outlook. It takes 270 to win.

Dark blue solid Biden, light blue lean Biden. Same for the president. The dark red means it's solid Trump. The light red leans Trump. The president's in trouble right now. If he won everyone of the yellow states here, those are the battlegrounds, right plus Maine's second congressional district. If he won them all, he would still be short.

So the president needs to come back and come back in places that he won pretty handily in 2016. He must take Florida back without a doubt. See Arizona, we lean it right now for Joe Biden. That's trouble for the president losing in places he won before. Let's just take a look at some of the dynamics right now. If you look

at the battleground polling, yes the president came back in 2016.

But look at all these battleground polls. Here are just ten from recent days. What do you notice here? Only one has a Trump lead. And that's Georgia plus one which essentially is a tie. They're tied in the states, not just the national polls is Biden's way right now.

In part, Biden is protecting his lead because this is a phenomenon in this race. Biden is outstanding the Republican incumbent president on television right now including in the battleground states just since September 1st. Nearly $50 million in Florida for Biden. $31 million for the president.

You see the Pennsylvania numbers, North Carolina, Arizona $19 million for the vice president. $9 million, a little over $9 million for President Trump. So as the president tries to come back, one of the dynamics he's been unable to campaign the last week because of coronavirus. Joe Biden is spending more than him in these battleground states.

And watch as they travel. A little example here, the former vice president and the vice president yesterday in Florida. Joe Biden targeting the suburbs. Mike Pence trying to get senior citizens to vote Republican.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: How many more have to go under? How many more dreams have to be extinguished because this president threw in this towel? Instead of focusing on your needs, he's still trying to take care of -- take away your health care.

MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Because of the cooperation of the American people, the leadership of our president, we're slowing the spread. We're protecting the vulnerable. And we're saving lives. And we're opening up America again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: With us to share their reporting and insights this Sunday from the battleground states. Politico Florida correspondent Marc Caputo, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez of "The Arizona Republic".

Mark, let me start with you. You had Mike Pence the vice president in The Villages. It is a campaign stop we see in every cycle. Both in state races you see it all the time and in these presidential races.

But look at the numbers right now. Biden versus Trump. This is Quinnipiac numbers, among senior citizens. Back in July it was 49-46. The latest poll it was 55-40. What is it in your battleground Florida that has senior citizens, a reliable voting electorate breaking for Biden in the late days?

MARC CAPUTO, FLORIDA CORRESPONDENT, POLITICO: Well, I'm not sure the Quinnipiac polls are accurate. Let me just get that out there. I don't mean to trash them on --

(CROSSTALK)

KING: I get it. They tend -- they tend to lean blue. I get you.

CAPUTO: They've had some problems. But coronavirus is the short answer to your question. You know, seniors are more likely to die and get hospitalized right now. And we're one of, if not the eldest state in the nation, certainly by the numbers and proportions of people together.

So you're seeing is Biden more so than Hillary Clinton and about as much as Barack Obama is taking a good share of the non-Hispanic white vote and the older vote. And if a Democrat gets shares of that, let's say 40 percent of whites, he's probably going to win the state and that's what you're seeing in the polling. But we've seen polling before say that the Democrat's going to win but election day happens and it doesn't happen.

KING: And Yvonne, as you look out in Arizona right now, one of the challenges that you see these states, this is my 9th presidential campaign so you always think of them as the last time.

But your state is changing so fast, much like Florida. Across the Sun Belt, you're seeing the growing suburbs especially outside of Phoenix. I just want to look at Maricopa County. It's about 60 percent of the vote in the state because it's so big.

When you go back to 2000, it was 914,000 votes and President Bush won by ten. If you go to 2008, John McCain of Arizona was on the ballot, and you see the total votes cast just in Maricopa growing to 1.2 million. In 2016 it was 1.5 million. And in 2020 it will likely be a higher number and the revolt in the suburbs against President Trump one of the reasons Arizona is leaning Biden now, right?

YVONNE WINGETT SANCHEZ, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, "THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC": That's one of the reasons we do see some of the same effects that you're seeing in Florida with seniors. I mean it looks to be just total cratering among seniors for President Trump.

And then you have Joe Biden alongside, you know, Cindy McCain, the late senator's wife vouching for him and talking a lot about his character, particularly with people of faith, members of the Church of Latter Day -- Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. I mean these are people who are really voting based on values, based on the president's handling of the coronavirus.

And we've got a lot of transplants who brought their own political philosophies with them, oftentimes from liberal states. So both of the candidates are really wrestling for the state's 11 electoral votes. And Joe Biden has consistently led here.

KING: You mentioned the Cindy McCain endorsement, number one. And now at a new TV ad. Let's look at a snippet.

[08:34:54] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CINDY MCCAIN, WIFE OF JOHN MCCAIN: In the Senate, they disagreed on almost everything. They'd fight like hell on the floor and then they go eat lunch together because they always put their friendship and their country first. Now more than ever we need a president who will put service before self.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: It is interesting, including in your state with such a well- known figure Cindy McCain, Joe Biden is closing, even in our polarized politics where you think turnout of your base is so critical, he's closing with a message of unity. I want to be Republicans' president as well as Democrats' president.

SANCHEZ: Yes. And he's using this in particular to reach disaffected Republican women voters, Independent women voters, people who maybe voted for Trump in 2016 but are really starting to have second chances -- second thoughts about the president. She's really trying to give them a permission structure to break away from their party.

KING: And Marc, your state is one of the most complicated states, Florida because it's so different. You know, the old cliche is the farther south you go, the further north you get, meaning, you know, retirees from the north in Broward, in Palm Beach, in the Miami and the like.

Walk through some of the complications. If you're a candidate who is trailing late in a race, how hard it is, because you have different constituencies depending on where you are in the state.

CAPUTO: Ok. Yes. So basically we have ten major media markets and 67 counties. When you go the southeast of Florida, it's culturally like the northeast because of I-95. But Miami Dade, the largest county in the far southeast is basically the capital of Latin America.

On the southwest coast is essentially culturally like the Midwest because of I-75 and then you have the area called the I-4 corridor which swings from Tampa to Orlando and over east into Daytona Beach which is basically the swing area of the swing state. Kind of like everywhere, U.S.A.

So you have all of these different constituencies and then you have north Florida, which is the farther north you go, the deeper south you are.

Now, in Florida we also have about 30 days of early voting by absentee ballot. And you can't compare 2016 to 2020 exactly because Republicans listening to the president who's kind of demonized mail-in voting are not asking their ballot and say they want to vote in person.

But it's still a really, really big deal that Democrats are turning in absentee ballots at such a high rate -- 841,000 Democrats have already voted. It's like eight times what they did at this point in 2016. That compares to 483,000 Republican. So the Democrats are really voting in big numbers.

Now, when the in person early voting period begins later in the month, we'll start to see if Republicans are going to catch up and they're just going to show up that way.

Just one last point, in 2016 Hillary Clinton actually went into election day with a 247,000 vote lead. Republicans showed in such force the she wound up losing the state by 113,000.

So we've seen this play before a little. But we just haven't seen Democrats pour it on the way they're pouring it on now.

KING: Pouring it on at the moment.

And Arizona is early voting, is similar? Is that what you're seeing?

SANCHEZ: That's what we're seeing. I mean we've only just begun. We have -- I don't think we have a good enough sense of what the trend lines are going to be but we do expect Democratic surges across the state, even outside of Maricopa County. So we'll be watch those closely and reporting on them on "The Arizona Republic".

KING: Yvonne and Marc, grateful for your help from the battleground states this Sunday --

CAPUTO: Thank you.

KING: -- it's hard to understand a campaign if you're here in Washington.

(CROSSTALK)

SANCHEZ: Thanks so much.

KING: Thank you.

Up next for us, the president's new stimulus offer is panned by House Democrats and Senate Republicans. The Washington gridlock that threatens the fragile coronavirus recovery.

[08:38:32]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: If you are counting on new and quick economic help from Washington, odds are you will be disappointed. There was a glimmer of new coronavirus stimulus hope as the week wound down. The president authorized his team to raise the acceptable price tag of a package to $1.8 billion. House Democrats are at $2.2 billion right now. So compromise appeared possible all of a sudden.

But the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi telling Democrats in a letter Saturday the White House offer was in her view, quote, "one step forward, two steps back", meaning more money was a plus, but giant disagreements remain over how to spend it. Then Senate Republicans lashed out at the president's offer, telling his top negotiators Saturday it was far too generous.

Now the talks are not dead. But those involved are not optimistic. And that worries economists like Mark Zandi of Moody Analytics who warns companies are at a cross roads. Zandi writes this. "If as a result they lose confidence in the recovery and pull back on their spending investment and hiring, then the recovery will unravel. Lawmakers don't have much time left to shore up that faith."

Mark Zandi is with us this Sunday. Mark, explain the consequences of what you're talking about here. How bad and how soon if Washington doesn't help?

MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY'S ANALYTICS: Well, if lawmakers can't get it together and provide some fiscal support, the economic recovery which is already weakening, will weaken further and I think by the end of the year and early next, we'll see some job losses.

You can see it in the jobs data. You go back to June, the economy created 4.8 million jobs. That was the peak of the growth. And then in July we got to 1.8, August 1.5, last month in September 670,000. So you can see the trend lines, John. And that's with fiscal support.

That's all gone now. And if we don't get any additional help from D.C., I think we'll get some job losses by the end of the year, early next. Unemployment will start to rise. So we need that package and we need it soon.

KING: The package that the House was contemplating includes aid state and local governments, aid to the airline industry, stimulus checks for Americans, some payments for small businesses, additional unemployment benefits. There's been resistance to breaking it down and doing individual bills.

From your perspective, what is needed most now?

ZANDI: Well, I think all of the above, really, John. I mean, I think to avoid backsliding into recession, we need a package that's somewhere between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. So lawmakers were in the right ballpark, and that has to include aid to state and local governments because if they don't get help, they're going to start laying off again and they're going to have to cut programs and services.

Help to unemployed workers and low-income households. Here's a fact for you: one-fifth of American workers are unemployed, underemployed or suffered a pay cut since the pandemic.

[08:44:55] ZANDI: More help to small business -- goodness knows they need the help. Restaurants, hotels, businesses in recreational activities, transportation industry. They're struggling to survive. They're still, you know, the pandemic is still raging and their business is still significantly disrupted. The airlines need help.

Yes, I can go on and on, on and on. We need all of the above. KING: Well, but the House Democrats say the president's plan is still

too small. I mean House Democrats say that. Senate Republicans say it is too big. Who knows if they can find a sweet spot before the election.

If you listen to the president, he says if Joe Biden wins the one thing we have seen that's been encouraging of late, a decent stock market will crash. But you write in your analysis that you think the markets have already factored in a Biden win and they're not that worried. Explain.

ZANDI: Yes, exactly. I mean you were just talking about the polls. The poll numbers are pretty definitive. It looks like increasingly like Vice President Biden is going to win the election. And there's even growing odds that there's going to be a Democratic sweep. The betting markets are anticipating this.

So stock investors know all this and they're are anticipating all this. And despite that, stock prices have held firm even had a good week last week despite all of that.

And I think that's because investors are beginning to calculate that on the other side of the election if it's a Democratic sweep, we'll get a very large fiscal package. It will be, you know, $3 trillion and that's really good for the economy and for business and corporate earnings and good for stock.

So the stock market actually is signaling that they're ok with a Biden victory and a Democratic sweep.

KING: The question is if they had to wait for that, what devastation would happen in the meantime?

ZANDI: Exactly. That's between here and there. And of course, as we know, things happen. So you know, pandemic could intensify. The election could be real chaos and a mess. So there's a lot of things that could go completely off the rails between now and after the inauguration February of next year when they get a piece of legislation. And of course, a lot of people are going to suffer as a result.

KING: Mark Zandi, grateful for your insights this Sunday. We'll keep in touch as this debate plays out. But again, those involved in the talks are not terribly optimistic. Mark, thank you so much.

Up next for us, court fights everywhere as millions of Americans vote by mail because of the coronavirus pandemic.

[08:47:11]

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KING: In our "Trail Mix" this week, a reminder. Early and mail-in voting is shattering records and leading to dozens of legal challenges. Here are some of the latest major rulings. In a Pennsylvania, a win for Democrats. A federal judge there, a judge appointed by President Trump says ballot drop boxes are legal. Those boxes make if more convenient for voters to drop off ballots. And of course, an alternative, if you don't trust the mail.

The Trump campaign had claimed they make it easier to commit fraud. Republicans can still appeal that ruling in the United States Supreme Court.

A victory for Texas Democrats over drop boxes as well though perhaps a short-lived one. A federal judge there says Governor Greg Abbott cannot limit drop boxes to one per county which means long lines in places like Harris County which include Houston.

But late last night an appellate court did stay that order while it considers an appeal meaning Governor Abbott's restrictions stay in place at least for now.

A judge in Ohio with a similar ruling. He says the Republican secretary of state cannot limit drop boxes to one location per county because the judge says that's not fair to voters in big cities like Cleveland. The state has already filed an appeal there.

And a win for Republicans in Wisconsin. A federal appeals court says ballots must be received by election day to be counted. The appeals court reversing a lower court ruling said because of the pandemic, ballots received up to one week after election day could be counted. Both sides continue to argue in court. They will through the election and perhaps beyond on the trail sending the sane message to the supporters in these final days. Get to the polls.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: If we are going to get anything done we've got to come together. We are going to have to vote like we have never voted before. Early voting is open here in Pennsylvania. So go vote if you can.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have had more enthusiasm right now, right now this year than we had four years ago by a factor of three times. And we had a lot.

This is the single most important election in the history of our country. Get out and vote.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Let's look at the some of the numbers now, many of them courtesy of Catalyst the data company that provides analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and some nonprofit groups. So let's just look at this. Total ballots cast already (INAUDIBLE) nationally, in the 36 states from which we have data, 7.4 million votes already cast. Election day still three weeks plus two days away. 7.4 million votes already cast and if you look at the trend map here you see the deeper oranges. That means higher interest in mail-in and early voting now compared to 2016. You see it in some of these battleground states like North Carolina, like Georgia or even Florida.

Interest up some. And we will watch this. we'll watch this all the way through to the election. From the states where we have data nationally breaking it down, 20 states, 55 percent of the ballots cast so far have been by registered Democrats. That doesn't mean they all voted Democrat but we do know from the polls. Democrats are overwhelmingly voting for Joe Biden, Republicans overwhelmingly voting for President Trump -- 55 percent ballots returned so far for Democrats, 25 percent by Republicans.

Then you see the rest of the break down here. Let's go through a couple of the battleground states. In Florida, more than 1.2 million ballots, look at that. Already cast.

51 percent of them cast by registered Democrats, 29 percent by a Republicans. So again, we're not certain how those people voted but you can do the odds are. Most of the Democrats voted for Biden, most of the Republicans for Trump. In North Carolina, fewer ballots cast so far but still big number. 418,000. Again, half of them returned by Democratic voters, and percent by Republicans so Democrats have the advantage in this mail-in voting so far.

Of course, we need to count on election day as well. And in Pennsylvania, a smaller number, 170,000 million -- 64 percent. That's a whopping advantage right now Democrats returning early ballots in Pennsylvania. 24 percent for Republicans.

[08:59:58]

KING: We are going to track this all the way through election day. We'll track the numbers, we'll also track the legal challenges in your state. Make a plan. It's important because of all the fights over this.

That's it for us this Sunday on INSIDE POLITICS. We hope you can catch us weekdays as well. We're here at 11:00 a.m. and noon eastern.

Up next, a very busy "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER". Jake's guests include the president's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow, Biden Deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield, Democratic Senator Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and the Republican governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday. Have a great day. Stay safe.

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