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Inside Politics
The Final Sprint To Election Day; Polls Show Large Gender Gap, Majority Of Women Back Biden; Biden: Trump Wants To Take Away Your Health Care; Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D-MI) & Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) Discuss Their Thoughts On Voter Turnout In Their States Between Trump & Biden; Most Battleground States Saw Record Case Counts Last Week. Aired 8-9a ET
Aired November 01, 2020 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[08:00:38]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN HOST (voice-over): The final days.
JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I'm running as a proud Democrat, but I'll govern as an American president to unite and to heal.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have made America powerful again. We have made America wealthy again, and we will make America great again.
KING: Plus, a record smashing COVID surge.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Our nation is plunging into a terrible darkness from COVID-19.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Every indicator, metric that we have is trending in the wrong direction.
KING: And the biggest election choice.
BIDEN: Donald Trump has waved the white flag, abandoned our families and surrendered to the virus.
TRUMP: Biden and the Democrat socialists will delay the vaccine, prolong the pandemic, shut down our country.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS.
To our viewers in the United States and around the world, thank you for sharing this important Sunday.
The presidential campaign is in the final hours and it is being disrupted by the coronavirus to the very end. President Trump and Joe Biden are making their closing appeals to a country adding new COVID infections at a stunning record pace. More than 81,000 new infections reported Saturday, and you see the trend line. It points to more trouble and more pain ahead.
So does all this red and orange, 37 of the 50 states now adding new cases at a higher rate than last week. Only four states trending down.
Dr. Anthony Fauci in a new interview says bluntly of the United States, you could not possibly be positioned more poorly.
The Republican incumbent all but ignores the dangerous spike. The Democratic challenger says it is a crisis that demands new leadership.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: It's a choice between a Biden lockdown or a safe vaccine that ends the pandemic and it's ending anyway. It's making the turn anyway.
BIDEN: Imagine where we'd be if we had a president who wore a mask instead of mocking it. I can tell you this: we wouldn't have 9 million confirmed cases of COVID in this nation, over 230,000 deaths.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Coronavirus safety concerns now a giant factor in eye-popping. Nearly 92 million Americans have returned their ballots. That's more than two-thirds of the total votes cast four years ago. And the coronavirus cloud hangs over a giant final days question. Will ballot voters already dropped in the mail will be delivered on time to be counted.
Federal judges now demanding the pollster service do a better job. But the agency blaming slowdowns on coronavirus-related manpower problems. A handful of states will settle this race, and the Trump campaign is preparing aggressive ballot challenges first at local election boards and then in the courts.
The president is more than transparent about his strategy. If he is leading in the Election Day count, he will move to shut things down, even if there are millions of legally cast ballots still to be counted.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: You're allowed to have time limits beyond November third. So what does this mean? The whole world and our nation is going to be waiting and waiting and waiting to hear who won and very bad things can happen with ballots during that period of November 3rd to whatever date they gave them. Many, many days.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: What the president says there simply isn't true. We count ballots after elections all the time. That's how it works.
But those court points would be moot if it's not close. A new polling tells us Biden does have the opportunity for a statement map changing win. That's not to say there's no path to reelection for the president, but he needs overwhelming Election Day turnout in a half dozen states.
Let's look at some of our latest polling. And let's use the 2016 map to do it, because brand new CNN polling out overnight in some of the key battlegrounds. This one here, look at Arizona, Joe Biden with a four-point lead in Arizona. That is close if Joe Biden can win this state, that might be a game over statement in and of itself. It changed the Sun Belt states.
But look, this one is very close. Joe Biden with the lead. He'd love to turn that state, competitive to the end.
Let's move to the east here, and look at our new CNN polling -- again, one of the states that could decide it all and we expect to count votes quickly, on Election Day, North Carolina. Joe Biden with a six- point lead in North Carolina. If that holds up, that would block the president. He needs North Carolina's electoral votes to win reelection. Joe Biden with a lead there.
[08:05:01]
A couple others, quickly, Michigan -- remember, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, that's what made Donald Trump president. He cracked the blue wall.
Well, look at this, the new CNN poll, a 12-point lead for Joe Biden. A steady, stable lead we've seen for Joe Biden in Michigan. This one, 12 points heading into the final weekend.
That would be a statement that the Democrats again in the industrial states back, and then you move over to Wisconsin, again, part of the president's big win four years ago. You see this here, an eight-point lead for Biden in Wisconsin. Just go back, remember the history, 47.8 to 47. Wisconsin was one of those in 2016, 22,000 votes and change, 52-44 there.
Now, that is not to say the president can't come back. Let's switch maps and show you something. That advantage in those states, right, let's start with the president's map. This is the president's map back in 2016.
If Joe Biden can win Arizona like you saw in the poll, win North Carolina like you saw in the poll, win Michigan and win Wisconsin, that's enough right there. If he holds the Clinton states and flips those four, he's the next president of the United States, and he can do it without Pennsylvania, without Florida, without Texas.
The president has a path, but he has to turn people out overwhelmingly. One more look at the battlegrounds. If you look at the state of play right now, ten battle ground states on this graphic, let me try to switch it out for you a little bit, 10 battleground states on this graphic.
What do you see? Only two of them does the president have leads in new polls. Florida by a little bit, Iowa one poll last night shows him up by 7. But look at the blue for Biden. Biden has more menu opportunities to
get there. The president, draw to an inside straight flush, maybe. Both candidates hitting the battle grounds trying to get to 270.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Three days to put an end to a presidency that's divided this nation. Three days, we can put an end to a presidency that's failed to protect this nation. Three days, we can put an end to a president that's fanned the flames of hate.
TRUMP: Biden is a Washington vulture who decimated your steel mills, annihilated your coal jobs, clean coal, and supported every disastrous sellout trade deal for over half a century.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: With us this Sunday to kick off the conversation and share the reporting and their insights, CNN White House correspondent Kaitlan Collins, Jonathan Martin of "The New York Times".
Kaitlan, to you first.
Because Donald Trump is running against Joe Biden but he's also running against the coronavirus and heading into this last weekend, Dr. Tony Fauci giving the most blunt interview yet that he knows what he's doing here, the election is right around the corner. Dr. Fauci -- this is from the "Washington Post." Fauci said former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign is taking it seriously from a public health perspective.
Trump, Fauci said, is looking at it from a different perspective. He said that perspective was the economy and reopening the country.
Dr. Fauci saying right there Joe Biden has a public health plan about the coronavirus and the president does not two days before America votes.
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, it's a pretty scathing indictment of the way that the president has handled this. It's been clear that Dr. Anthony Fauci and the president have not agreed about the approach to the pandemic for several months, but to see it in that stark of terms as voters are casting their ballots and making this decision and we know that the pandemic is hanging over all of this. That is not what President Trump wanted.
For several months throughout this pandemic, he talked about how in November he thought things would be better, thought we would be rounding the corner is the phrase he uses so often. Of course, we are seeing in the numbers that we are not even close, we are actually going in the other direction. Seeing some of the highest case numbers we have ever seen.
And, John, I've been talking to Trump campaign officials and the president's allies, they are not happy about this because they know that the president does not have a good credibility meter when it comes to the pandemic and they know that if that is the top of mind for voters, it does not bode well for them on Tuesday.
KING: And, so, Jonathan, you look at all the numbers and it's dizzying, the number of late battleground state polls, and some are contradictory. One poll has Trump up in Florida, one poll has Biden up in Florida. There's a poll out of Iowa, the recent polls have shown it very close, all of a sudden, the Iowa poll seems to show Trump momentum.
So, we're going to count this out on Tuesday but it is indisputable that Joe Biden has many more options, many more menu options to get to 270 electoral votes and beyond, many, many more. You're right with your colleague Alex Burns in the paper today in Wisconsin voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016 --
JONATHAN MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right.
KING: -- favor Mr. Biden by 19 points. They have a similarly lopsided preference in Florida where Mr. Biden leads by 17 points. The advantage with people who sat out 2016 is 12 points in Pennsylvania, seven points in Arizona. The Trump campaign keeps telling us they've registered people who didn't play in 2016, they're going to overwhelm us on Election Day.
But you say at least so far, the evidence points to the other direction.
MARTIN: Data and anecdotes prove I think pretty conclusively, John, that these new voters are showing up to support Joe Biden more than they are Donald Trump. We see it in our new survey today as you pointed out, I saw it last week in Texas, I was in three different parts of that state and talked to over 50 voters at early polling sites.
[08:10:03]
The new voters are overwhelmingly young and nonwhite and they are not showing up for Donald Trump there. And so, I think it's pretty clear that the people who are coming into the political system are doing so out of opposition to this president more than to register their support.
And I think, John, it's important to keep in mind for your listeners, the onus here is on President Trump to hold his map. We talk a lot about Florida and Georgia and North Carolina and Arizona and now, yes, even Texas for good reason because Biden could win in a rout if he picks up those Sun Belt states.
But Biden only needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, as long as he holds the rest of the Hillary Clinton states to win the presidency. And every one of those states, those three states in the industrial Midwest, Joe Biden is leading and has been leading for months. Trump has not led in a poll in any of those states for months.
KING: Right. So that's -- you see four rallies by the president in the same state, the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. That tells us everything you need to know. He's trying to find people, bring them out of the woodwork and more.
I want you to listen to the president yesterday, this is Butler, Pennsylvania. The president trying to make his closing message, he knows the coronavirus is spiking everywhere, including in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Instead of trying to address I'm your president, here is what I will do differently, he talks about Joe Biden.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Biden will delay the vaccine and impose a crushing lockdown on all of America.
Under Biden, there will be no school, no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgiving, no Easter, no Christmas, no Fourth of July, no nothing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: That fails a fact check in many regards. The former vice president, Mr. Biden, has said he would be happy to have a vaccine as quickly as possible if the scientists support it and says he does not support a national lockdown, he supports targeted measures including more mask use and shutting down places if you have a spike.
But the bigger point to me is that, we've watched around the world, we've watched governors and we've watched mayors, Boris Johnson making the painful decision to put his country the U.K. back into lockdown. The president of the United States has not once taken a break from the campaign trail as the cases have spiked in recent days to address the American people as their president. Whether it's to defend his plan, whether it's to change his plan, whether it it's to tell them about what lies ahead, instead he does rallies where he says things about the virus that aren't true.
COLLINS: Yeah, and you're seeing these two candidates go to states where the cases are surging, and you see the difference in how they addressed. Where Joe Biden talks about the numbers going up, the president doesn't it. He instead frames it as if the numbers are going town.
But this is the risk that the Trump campaign is taking, because they are betting that there are people like the ones in that crowd who are happy to come out, not social distance, a lot of them not wearing a mask, and listen to the president, you know, instill fear in people that there is going to be another shutdown, that you will see the restrictions we saw in the United States several months ago in March and whatnot.
But the risk in that is that there are also a lot of people who don't want to go to a rally like that, who have not been around a crowd like that in a year now and so the risk is that they are going to alienate those voters by holding these rallies, by pushing that message to where voters will see Biden as a safe alternative. That's their fear here. Because you're right, the president is taking this in a much different approach than someone like Boris Johnson who says I don't want to lock the country down for another month but that's where we're going because our cases are going up.
We are seeing cases go up and the president is taking not only that approach, but the opposite approach by holding these rallies and by saying that businesses and states need to be opened back up fully to where they were at pre-pandemic levels.
KING: And so, Jonathan, what are you looking for in the final two days? They're sending Barack Obama, the former president, back to south Florida. Democrats are worried about African-American and Latino turnout.
As Democrats try they think in many places the early voting has helped them, but they have to execute to the end and they have some people, older voters, breaking for Biden this time, might be afraid to vote because of coronavirus -- inner city African-Americans disproportionate COVID cases.
What are you looking for in the final days in terms of execution?
MARTIN: Well, we mentioned Pennsylvania a second ago for good reason. That state more than the other competitive states has most of their votes taking place on Election Day itself. Yes, some Democrats there have done min ballots but a lot of people are voting on Election Day itself.
And more broadly in the black community in this country, there are a lot of voters who don't want to vote by mail. African-Americans prefer to vote on Election Day. That's why you see Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris sweeping back into places like Florida in the final hours of this election to drive black turnout on Election Day votes itself.
KING: We will see if it works out. The fabulous fun final days, we're execution now. The candidates give all their speeches but this is about execution, identifying voters, using your data, make sure you turn them out.
Kaitlan Collins, Jonathan Martin, grateful to start this Sunday with the reporting and insights there.
And up next for us, we will go deep inside the numbers of the record early voting and the president promises a massive Election Day turnout.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:19:15]
KING: No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, it will go in the books as history because pandemic election, intensity, early voting off the charts. Look at these numbers, more than 91 million, nearly 92 million votes already cast. Already cast. It's Sunday.
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, we are not to Election Day yet, 91.6 million votes already cast across the United States of America. Let's look at this. It's key battleground states versus 2016. Texas
has already surpassed its 2016 turnout in early voting. We're already 109 percent, more people have voted in Texas already than voted in the 2016 election.
Georgia is pretty close, 95 percent, North Carolina 95, Arizona 92, Florida 89. Nationally, 67 percent increase in early voting this year compared to 2016.
Now, let's break this down by party. In some states Democrats think this is helping them.
[08:20:02]
The question is, can they finish? Can they keep people coming out?
Look at Pennsylvania, 67 percent of the ballots returned Democrats, 22 percent Republicans. Let's be clear -- we don't know all these Democrats voted Biden, or that all these Republicans voted Trump. But we know from polling, 90 percent in each case for the most part.
Look at Florida, closer here 40 percent Democrats returning ballots, 38 percent Republicans, 21 percent there is the wild card, people unaffiliated, no party.
In North Carolina, it's pretty close, 38 to 32, slight Democratic advantage, they will take everything they can get in in that state that's competitive. And in Arizona, 38 to 36, pretty close there.
That's one of the trends you see if you look at how this played out. Ten days ago Democrats had an 11-point advantage in ballots returned by partisans in Florida, now it's down to 2, in North Carolina, it was 14 ten days ago, now it's down to 6. In Arizona, it was 9. Now, it's down to 2. Iowa 22 down to 16, still a big advantage.
Pennsylvania off the charts 51, 45. This one is worth watching. That's why the president was there four times yesterday. He knows the Democrats are way ahead in early voting and needs to get people out of the woodwork and turn them out.
But some of these are shrinking, which means if the president gets that massive turnout it might put more states in play and make things surprising. In the final days Joe Biden telling Democrats this is great, keep voting. The president sounds like if he doesn't like the results, he might challenge them.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BIDEN: Americans vote no matter how many threats he makes, America will be heard. When America is heard I believe the message will be loud and it's going to be clear. It's time for Donald Trump to pack his bags and go home.
TRUMP: The only way we can lose this stay and the numbers are in, you see what's going on, right? Somebody is going to play games and they just get an extension. What's the extension all about? (END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Joining us with their reporting and insights, CNN's Abby Phillip and Lisa Lerer of the "New York Times."
It's great to see you both on this important Sunday.
Abby, let me start with you. Look, the numbers are off the charts and Democrats think it's to their advantage. But listen here, Senator Kamala Harris in Florida yesterday, Barack Obama going back to Florida, they do -- even as confident as they are, they see some pockets of worry including African-Americans and Latino turnout. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. KAMALA HARRIS (D-CA), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I believe that folks are turning out because, again, they know what's at stake. What I am hearing in particular when we talk about African-American, Caribbean voters in Florida, they want to know that they have a president who understands the commonality between us of us. They want a president who speaks to our higher purposes and better angels as opposed to speaking to hate and division.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Is that doing your job or is that a sign of nervousness, jitters that the numbers aren't quite right?
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a sign that they are heeding the concerns of people on the ground and activists across the country who say that the turnout that they need to see isn't quite there yet.
I spent the weekend talking to Democratic strategists about this issue and many are saying, look, we still have some time. There was a delay because of COVID and getting on the ground and getting to please people, but now this is where the rubber meets the road and even small things like last weekend's Souls to the Polls events were kind of rained out. This weekend, they were hoping to get those folks back out there.
But it is the most critical thing for Democrats to have that strong turnout in south Florida and a lot of it is driven by black voters, by Caribbean voters, Haitian voters, Latino voters all of whom need to be connected with by activists and the coronavirus definitely set Democrats back and it's a worry because Florida, as you know, is a linchpin state for Donald Trump, but if Joe Biden wants to deny Trump an early, you know, opportunity to stretch this out, winning Florida would certainly do that.
KING: That would be it, that would be game over.
But again, we may have a confusing election night because of the min ballots and delays counting them. Florida says it will be done on election night. If Joe Biden wins that it would give us a strong clue. So, Lisa, we go through every piece of every coalition, if you will,
we're just talking there, if Joe Biden has a problem, let's say African-American men, more voting for Trump, Latino men, we see some evidence more might vote for Trump.
The flip side the Biden people say is that we are winning among seniors in better numbers than Hillary Clinton four years ago, making inroads with white men. But the most important part for Joe Biden is the gender gap. Women will be 53 percent of the national electorate, in most states, they are the majority. Somewhere around that, 52, 53 percent.
You've spent a lot of time on this issue. We had soccer moms back in the 1992 campaign, you write about Panera moms. I want to listen to one of your podcasts here talking about how this -- for Joe Biden if he can turn out suburban women anywhere near what they say in the polls he could be the next president. Listen.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
ANDREA GRANARY, OHIO VOTER: I had so many regrets in 2016 because I took for granted that I just -- I just thought Hillary would win. I thought it would be no question.
[08:22:03]
And so I have said since then like I'm not -- I'm determined not to have regrets on November 4th this time and I'm really just pushing myself so much to do everything I can.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
KING: And that is a national dynamic, number one, but number two, if it happens in a place like Ohio, again, that would be a game over.
LISA LERER, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Oh, exactly. Ohio is a state that many Democrats felt was lost and some still feel it's not a place where they will play very strongly, but that's kind of why this transition among these suburban communities is so interesting.
And as you point out, it is a national phenomenon. I'm here in Orlando. I'm going to be heading up to Seminole County which is another sort of suburban county where you're seeing these kinds of changes happen, these historically Republican places that are now trending more in Joe Biden's favor and that is overwhelmingly because of suburban women.
What we know about the Biden coalition as compared to, say, the Obama coalition is that it's whiter, it's more suburban, it's more educated. Obviously, voters of color are a crucial part of Joe Biden's path to victory as Abby talked about and that's part of why you see President Obama coming back to the state, coming back to Miami-Dade to make sure hat those voters turn out. But Biden has this other route which runs through America's suburbs. It runs through those Panera moms.
KING: Panera moms, I love.
And, Abby, one of the things we need to prepare our viewers for, we may not have a winner on election night because states, understandably, there's nothing wrong with this, despite what the president says might need to count mail-in ballots and that's a process that some states say could take into Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps even Friday.
We also expect a lot of challenges. We can just put some of them up and I'm not going to get read them all. We'll put them. There is a court hearing tomorrow in Texas on disqualifying 100,000 votes in Ohio and Texas, each county has been limited to one ballot drop box which is offensive, but these are Republican governors who don't want people to vote I guess.
No extension of deadline in Minnesota and Wisconsin because of court cases there about min ballots. In Pennsylvania, you better please check the rules, mail your ballots back right.
I will stop there. There is a lot of efforts that the Democrats say are Republicans trying to suppress votes any way but especially in this pandemic when you should be making it easier.
PHILLIP: Yeah, there's no question about it. I mean, this is just really I would say the tip of the iceberg what you just laid out. All of these battles coming up to election day to restrict how far after election day ballots can be accepted, where you can drop your ballots off, how easy it is to match your signature on your ballot to what is on file.
But I think what would be very concerning, particularly to Democrats, is what happens after election day and will there be efforts led by President Trump based on his rhetoric to stop ballots that are already in -- have already been cast from being counted. That is what is keeping Democrats up at night and the president is signaling that that's the direction that he wants things to go in.
KING: Well, the lawyers will be busy as well. But it's going to take time, folks, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. That's how it works.
Abby Phillip and Lisa Lerer, grateful for the reporting and their insights.
When we come back, four rallies in Pennsylvania Saturday, Michigan, Wisconsin next. The president trying to recreate his 2016 map, but Joe Biden and the Democrats, yes, they see a chance to rebuild their blue wall with a little help from a two-time presidential winner.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: They're not white values or black values or Latino or Asian or American Indian, they're American values, and we have to reclaim them. But to do that, we're going to have to turn out like never before. To reclaim what's best in this country, we can -- we can leave no doubt. We cannot afford to be complacent. Not this time. Not in this election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:33:16]
KING: If you pay attention to the blizzard or polls in recent days, you know this. Joe Biden has a chance to remake this map. This is the Trump map from 2016. This is why Donald Trump is president.
And you see polls, Joe Biden competitive in Florida, leading in Arizona, maybe in play in Texas. You think wow, Democrats have an opportunity to rewrite the map. Well, they do but this is also true, Donald Trump is president because of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe Biden could be president if he just holds the Clinton states on this map and wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
There are grander plans maybe. Maybe the voters will decide otherwise. But if you're in the Biden campaign, the bread and butter is to get those back, so that's the question in the final days. Let me switch maps and just say, you see the polls narrowly in Pennsylvania, more healthy lead in Michigan, for example.
Can Joe Biden turn out voters? African-Americans in Philadelphia and swamp in the suburbs and can he do better? You see all this red? Donald Trump won those counties hugely. Joe Biden doesn't have to win them but can he do better with blue-collar voters? That's a challenge there.
Then you move over to Michigan, can Joe Biden take back Macomb County? That's just north of Detroit, right up here let me get that poll out of there for you. We don't need to see that. Sorry about that. Can you get Macomb County back, the auto industry, blue-collar workers here, Reagan Democrats and can you turn out African-Americans in higher numbers than Hillary Clinton did here, Wayne County in Detroit.
That is the challenge in the final days of the campaign and watch the schedule, both candidates know Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan will decide the election.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Joe Biden will shut down your economy, wipe out your factories and shut down your state, ship your jobs to China, raise your taxes. A vote for Biden-Harris is a vote to ban and you know this, ban fracking, ban mining.
JOE BIDEN (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If they get their way, a hundred million Americans will lose protections for pre-existing conditions.
[08:35:04]
Including more than 4 million Michiganders. Donald Trump thinks health care is a privilege. Barack and I think it's a right.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Joining us now first from Detroit, the Michigan Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist and from Braddock, Pennsylvania, the Lieutenant Governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, John Fetterman. Gentlemen, thank you both on this important Sunday. I know you're busy and I'm grateful for your time.
Lt. Gov. Fetterman, I want to start with you because the President was there for four rallies yesterday. He had several rallies the other day as well. The polls show a narrow but steady Joe Biden lead, but I just want to show our viewers a tweet that you sent out yesterday. I don't care what the poll say Trump is popular here, "700,000 ballots still out there, you need to bank your ballot. Use a Dropbox. Get them in."
I want to show you the voting trends. This is a Fox News poll, 61 percent of Biden voters say they're going to vote early. Only 30 percent of Trump voters say that. So here's the question, this is the defining question in your state and others. Do you think Trump is capable of getting this overwhelming Election Day turnout to overcome the early voting?
LT. GOV. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-PA): Well, here's what I suspect the Trump campaign strategy is, is one, to create a lot of electoral chaos and noise around mail-in ballots and uncertainty. And they've been successful to some extent with that to create that kind of misinformation and why about the conditions on the ground and fraud.
The other one and I would find this difficult to capture in polling is an unprecedented list to barnstorm the state. By my count, there has been between 15 and 20 events with Trump and/or his family and surrogates in Pennsylvania within the last seven days and I'm not sure how polling can really capture that. But what they're doing is activating the small county base across Pennsylvania and that is their path if they in fact have one. But they're playing it well in regards to that. So I suspect that the two-prong approach in Pennsylvania on what they're banking on?
KING: It's fascinating and we will watch it. And Gov. Gilchrist, let's move over to Michigan in your case. I just want to look, if you look at the polling, again, this is the question for Democrats, do you believe what your eyes are seeing compared to 2016? President Trump in your state carried men by 12 points, four years ago. Joe Biden has a lead. Hillary Clinton won women, but Joe Biden has double her lead.
White/no college degree, yes, the President still leading but by half what he had in 2016 exit polls. You see seniors there. President Trump carried them four years ago. Joe Biden is ahead by double digits. Do you believe the numbers? Is Michigan going to flip back to blue or are there things in these final hours that you're calling the Biden campaign saying you must do this?
LT. GOV. GARLIN GILCHRIST (D-MI): Well, John, I appreciate you having me on to talk about this. What I'm seeing on the ground is unprecedented energy from those groups that you described, but also energy from groups like black men in Detroit really showing up in high, high numbers in the early vote. So we can run up the score in places like Detroit and Flint.
And that is why President Obama was here with the Vice President just yesterday in both of those cities to really make sure that we can use that turnout, because that will add to our paths to victory in Michigan. Joe Biden polls strong here because he's been a strong ally for the people of Michigan for years and we trust him as being a person in power and a partner.
And so I believe that we're doing the organizing work. We're going to close strong. We're always going to close strong. Donald Trump comes to Michigan all the time and we just want to make sure this is the last time he comes on to Grand Rapids on Tuesday.
KING: Lt. Gov. Fetterman, back to you on the same idea, just looking through the demographics of your state and it's a complicated place. Joe Biden needs overwhelming turnout in the suburbs. Donald Trump needs overwhelming turnout, as you noted, in those smaller rural counties and then we get into the math. But again, if you look, then 2016 versus now President Trump still leading among men, but by a much smaller margin.
Again, Joe Biden's gender gap, Hillary Clinton plus 13, Joe Biden plus 21. White/no college degree, the President's lead cut almost in half among that constituency and older voters, senior citizens if they vote, that's the question and these COVID times, that could be a decisive swing vote toward Joe Biden from 2016. And yet, you have a little sense of jitters, I can sense it. What does Joe Biden need to do in the final 48 hours?
FETTERMAN: It's really not jitters. It's just there's so much unknown in 2020 right now. Like I said, Donald Trump is doing things that have never been done in Pennsylvania politics in terms of the raw barnstorming across small county Pennsylvania. So it's hard to predict with certainty how that's going to activate not only his base of voters from 2016, but also those that set it out too because there are any number of those as well too.
I'm not saying Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania, but what I am saying is that he's doing everything that he can to maximize his chances and then the other known aspect of that is the chaos factor. We have 600,000 to 700,000 votes out still, mail-in ballots and there's only three paths for those ballots.
[08:40:00]
One, drop box them, deliver them in-person. Two, go in the trash and they don't vote. Or three, jam up Election Day lines in urban areas where lines are already going to be long too and that's going to create additional chaos, because they'll have to essentially trade one ballot for another, which I'm adamantly opposed to.
So there's that unknown factor there and here in Pennsylvania. So Joe Biden is going to smaller counties. My campaign manager for my first race is managing Pennsylvania for Joe Biden. And I told them, get to the small counties, get to Erie, get to Cambria, get to Bucks, get to Luzerne and they've done that and Joe Biden is well positioned in Pennsylvania. But Donald Trump is playing, in my opinion, that two- pronged strategy to barnstorm heavily unprecedented and also to foment chaos and uncertainty with the voting in the mail-in ballot process here in the state.
KING: You're walking through my Tuesday night there, the Luzerne theory and so on, as we go, that's my Tuesday night watching votes and checking in on the key counties without a doubt. So I want to ask you both about this in closing and I want you to listen to the President of the United States, there's something else the President is doing that has never been done before. He's questioning the integrity of our election.
It happens, you count ballots after the election. That's the way it works. This year, there'll be a lot more ballots because of all this early voting. Listen to the President's characterization of if we're counting votes on Wednesday and Thursday, he says that's terrible.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: You'll have to have time limits beyond November 3rd, so what does this mean? The whole world and our nation is going to be waiting and waiting and waiting to hear who won. And very bad things can happen with ballots during that period of November 3rd to whatever date they gave them many, many days.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Lt. Gov. Gilchrist to you first, I've talked to your Secretary of State several times. She says it may take a few days. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Both campaigns, both parties get to watch the process. If they say anything, they can raise their hand. That's the way it works. Where do you see things now, if you gentlemen represent the two states that could well decide the election, how long do you think it's going to take and assure people - you're a Democrat, but I want to assure people out there, this will be done properly.
GILCHRIST: It's important that we get the results right for the 25 percent of ballots that have been returned in Detroit that are from voters who didn't vote in 2016. They want their votes to be counted properly and Donald Trump is so dangerously disconnected from reality and that's why people don't trust him anymore. And I think that people do trust their local election administrators, people do trust secretaries of state who have been doing such important work to make sure that we have processes to count these ballots accurately.
And if that takes a few days, it takes a few days, because we need to get the future of our nation right and that starts with getting these election results right. And that's what we're going to do in Michigan here. We're going to take care of that business and people just - we can't trust Donald Trump. He's proven that time and time again.
So, of course, he's going to lie and try to sow chaos and division, but I think that we can ignore him, frankly, and we should focus on getting the results right, not getting them fast.
KING: Lt. Gov. Fetterman, any update on when you think Pennsylvania will be done or people just have to strap in and wait?
FETTERMAN: I mean, the truth is that voting is actually going well in Pennsylvania. The one documented case of voter fraud in this cycle was actually a Republican in Luzerne County who tried to vote for his deceased mother. But that doesn't necessarily factor into this unprecedented assault by Donald Trump on the integrity of our voting system, which is absolutely sound.
Once again, that's part of that (inaudible) is the Supreme Court. He's not even trying to hide that at this point. It's openly part of his strategy. And you have a number of counties in Pennsylvania that have defected to announce they are only going to count mail-in ballots starting November 4th, which again I strenuously disagree with, those are our Secretary of State.
Like I said, that two-pronged approach in Pennsylvania is one that is the Trump's campaigns only path to victory (inaudible) ...
KING: Gentlemen, appreciate both of your time on this very important Sunday. Lt. Gov. Gilchrist, Lt. Gov. Fetterman, best of luck in the days ahead. Again, thank you both for being with us. And to anybody out there watching, just vote. If you have a chance, vote. Find a way to do it. Don't trust the mail at this point.
Up next for us, the final week of the 2020 campaign is the worst week of the coronavirus pandemic.
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[08:45:15]
We are in the closing days of a campaign, but we know the coronavirus crisis will stay with us well past the election. Let's just look at some of these numbers right now and they are horrific. Thirty-seven states, that's the red and the orange. We do politics red and blue.
Red and orange here, those are states that have more new COVID infections right now than a week ago and there are 37 of them. Nine states holding steady only four reporting fewer infections right now compared to a week ago.
This is where you see the troubling weeks and weeks and perhaps months ahead. Look at the trend line, going almost straight up. A new record Friday. Last week was a week of record, high case counts, 99,000. The experts say a hundred thousand is in our near future, a little bit down on Saturday, but the trend line they're going straight up.
This was the summer peak, 77. You can see 20,000 plus over that already and counting as we head up. This too a painful graphic in the sense that for all the cases, the death rate has stayed down a bit, but it is starting to trend up Friday, went over a thousand. Let's hope they're wrong, but the experts say days of over a thousand, maybe 1,500 in our very near future. Let's hope they're wrong about that.
If you just look at this, this tells you sort of the months we've been through. In April, the Northeast getting it mostly. A little bit down in Louisiana, some spots around the country. By July, the summer surge, you start to see much more red. Here's where we are now. This is pretty much all across America.
Yes, some areas darker than others, but all of America right now involved in this fall surge of coronavirus cases. To make that point, 31 states had record case counts this past week, 31. The President says we've rounded the corner. That tells you that's simply not true as more states post these records.
And in the final days of a campaign, this is what people are seeing, this is what people are seeing, these are battleground states but all across America, states near shortage of ICU beds, regencies most virus cases since August, virus continues to surge. People are getting sicker. Let's bring into our conversation now our veteran CNN Political Commentators, the Democrat Paul Begala and the Republican Alice Stewart.
And Alice, that's the question I want to ask you first, I get the President is in the middle of a campaign. I get the inconvenience of this. But this is his job. This is his job, not once in recent days or weeks, as this surge has started, has the President done an event at the White House as president not as candidate as president to just walk the American people through what is happening, even if he wants to defend his policy, the voters can decide whether they like it or not, why not?
ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, certainly that's not a great messaging for him. And the reality is, John, and I think we all three can agree. The numbers you just outlined are the real reason why we're seeing 92 million Americans vote early. They are motivated, A, to vote early and use caution and social distance.
But the Coronavirus is a big factor, that's also why we're seeing Joe Biden using that as part of his closing argument. He's pushing COVID as well as character and he's really stressing what he feels as the administration's inaction on COVID.
And the President is out there, certainly he talks about what he is going to do with COVID and has done with regard to PPE and working on getting a vaccine and contact tracing. And, to some degree, encouraging people to wear masks and social distance, but he is driving home the closing argument of safety and prosperity and I'm really trying to steer away from COVID, but really focusing on the economic opportunities that the last four years he has created and what he plans to do moving forward.
KING: Paul, I have the 2016 map up here and a lot of Democrats, obviously, who thought Hillary Clinton was going to win will be grateful when we don't use this as the template anymore when we move on to new election. But when you look at the map in the final weeks, we've gone through the polling in the program here. Joe Biden seems to have a steady lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
But the big question this time, you and I met long time ago when it was Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas running for president. And he did change the map some because he was from Arkansas and he put together, he won Georgia, for example, in one of his campaigns he won Arizona. Do you see this as a map changing election?
PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I do, John. I do. First, it's good to see you again. Back in Clinton's days by the way, we're planning his campaign, California had gone Republican in nine out of the 10 previous elections. Nine out of 10, it was the most reliably red big state in America. Now Texas is and I know you think I'm crazy, but Texas is going to go blue. It hasn't gone Democratic course since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
In fact, no Democrats won a statewide election since 1994. But there has been a surge in voting. Texas is usually last 49 or 50 in voting, it's number one in voting now, 9 million Texans have voted. This is led by a surge of young people, 1.4 million young people have voted in Texas already, MJ Hegar, the Democratic candidate there is rallying people. She's given John Cornyn the race of his life. I think she's going to knock him off.
[08:50:05]
So it's things like that. You have a similar situation in Georgia, which Bill Clinton did win, but no Democratic has won since. The same thing, you've got huge rallying of the Democratic base and you have the suburbs collapsing for Mr. Trump. So I think we're seeing that in a lot of states.
KING: So Alice, that's the point and I'll clear this and bring up Texas. We'll see if Mr. Begala's hopes for his home State of Texas are correct. But Paul makes the key point. Democratic voters are motivated by their anti Trump animus, so we expect high turnout among progressives, we expect we're seeing if Democrats can deliver up to Election Day with African-Americans and Latinos, but the suburbs are the key.
In 2018 in the Dallas suburbs, the House Democrats added a seat. In the Houston suburbs, Harris County, one of the fastest growing places in America, Democrats picked up a seat in the House. That is the challenge. Why have the suburbs of the United States including in a state we used to think of as ruby red, why are they turning against this president?
STEWART: Well, a lot of what we're seeing is with regard to women voters and his ability to connect with them. Look, I think Democrats have made tremendous inroads in Texas. I spent a lot of time there in the Cruz campaign and they have really started to blaze the trail to turn that state blue. I don't see it happening at this point. I think it will be tremendously close. I don't see it happening.
And likewise in my home state of Georgia, Stacey Abrams did a great job of leaning Georgia to the blue column. But I still see that staying as a Republican state and I think we're looking at the battle of the Sunbelt versus the Rustbelt. We're looking at these Sunbelt states. We're looking at Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, those are very tight. I see Trump bringing those home on Election Day.
But we're looking at the Rustbelt states, I think the Trump campaign has a little bit more of a challenge. We're looking at Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Of course, we know Pennsylvania has been for the Democratic candidates in the last six presidential elections until 2016 for Trump, so it is an uphill battle with Joe Biden going there before Election Day to make the closing argument. It will help to bring the Democrats to his side.
But I do see President Trump having a good day on Election Day with regard to these Sunbelt states because the these numbers are super close and very tight and they have a good ground game. And I see them turning folks out in these key states.
KING: Well, to that point, Paul, the Democrats in many places, not all but in many places are encouraged by the early voting. But the key in the end is execution, execution. And Alice mentioned, let me pull the map back out, and again we're using the 2016 map right now because this is where Donald Trump crack the so-called blue wall.
Those were states going back to your win with Bill Clinton in 1992 until 2016. These states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin had been in the Democratic fold since 1992. Trump flipped them. What are you hearing from Democrats in the final days, even in places where they think, OK, we're good with early voting, can they sustain it to the end? Because if you bank a bunch of votes early, but then you don't deliver the rest on Election Day, Trump does it again.
BEGALA: Absolutely, John, and they are haunted by that. I've talked to (inaudible) I talked to, for example, Lavora Barnes, who's the Democratic chairwoman of the state party in Michigan. She knows to the exact number how many they lost Michigan by the last time. I talked to Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, same thing he's fanatically turning people out.
I had a long talk with my old friend and former colleague, Sen. Bob Casey, this week to really get a briefing on Pennsylvania. Everyone in those Rustbelt swing states that Alice referred to in the Democratic Party is just working their hearts out and they are starting to walk with pride now. They've been shell-shocked and they had PTSD from 2016.
But there's been an attitude change this week. Some of it is Trump's campaigning though, John. Newton's third law of physics still applies, for every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction. So Trump has these rallies and they rally his base and he's got great performance skills and I respect that. But when he does that, he is spreading COVID. He is frightening seniors and motivating the Democratic base.
And Pennsylvania is the second oldest population in any state in America and there's a study that Stanford out today or yesterday that says Trump's rallies, just his rallies have caused 30,000 cases of COVID and 700 deaths. If your senior citizens sitting in Pennsylvania and you watch these super spreader events, we shouldn't call them rallies, super spreader events.
Yes, it motivates his base, but I'm telling you is turning out seniors a cohort that Trump won and turning them out for Biden.
KING: Well, we'll be counting them on Tuesday to see if they do turn out. Our medical team is a little skeptical of the findings of that Stanford study. I want to make sure we get that in the record. But there's no question the President is holding rallies with people packed in closely and there are some data in Minnesota, for example, that there are cases from them, whether it's our highest that Stanford study, we're not quite so sure.
But Paul Begala and Alice Stewart, we're grateful for your insights on this final week and that's it for INSIDE POLITICS. I hope you'll join us weekdays as well, especially in this big week ahead. We're here at 11 am and noon Eastern.
Up next, a very special two-hour STATE OF THE UNION with Jake Tapper. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday. Stay safe. Vote.
[08:54:57]
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JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Last chance, with Election Day 48 hours away, candidates make their final pitches in crucial swing states.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: You are so lucky that I'm your president.
BIDEN: We can put an end to a presidency that's failed to protect this nation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TAPPER: As Joe Biden tries to maintain his lead can President Trump convince voters to get for more years? I'll speak with Biden campaign Senior Advisor Anita Dunn and Trump supporter Florida Senator Rick Scott next.
[09:00:06]
