Return to Transcripts main page

Inside Politics

Biden, G20 Leaders Tackle Vaccines, Supply Chains, Taxes, Iran, House Leaders Eye Tuesday Vote On Biden's Big Economic Plan; McAuliffe And Youngkin In Tight Race For VA Governor; World Leaders Gather In Glasgow For Global Climate Summit; Kinzinger's Big Announcement. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired October 31, 2021 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:32]

(MUSIC)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST (voice-over): Democrats miss another deadline, but is the party finally ready to unite around Biden's massive economic plan?

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: It's quite a spectacular vision President Biden has put forth.

REP. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-WA): We're making transformative investments that will change people's lives. And I can't wait to get it done.

RAJU: Plus, the latest on the president's foreign trip with the focus on vaccine, supply chains and climate.

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's about leading the world, or letting the world pass us by.

RAJU: And two days to go, Republicans are eyeing an upset in the Virginia governor's race. GLENN YOUNGKIN (R), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: We are going to send a

shockwave across this country.

This is the future of our country. Everybody is looking at Virginia.

RAJU: INSIDE POLITICS, the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters, now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RAJU (on camera): Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju, in today for Abby Phillip.

A busy day for President Biden in Rome, a final day at the G20 summit. This morning, he met with President Erdogan between rising tensions between Istanbul. He will meet with them at 2:30 p.m. His agenda this weekend was dominated by getting vaccines to poorer countries, restarting the Iran nuclear talks and fixing the global supply chain. Now, there is a new deal for a new global minimum corporate tax.

Joining us now is CNN chief White House correspondent Kaitlan Collins from Rome.

Kaitlan, what does the White House see as the biggest success so far?

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I think, Manu, when it comes to concrete examples they would point to that global corporate minimum tax. That, of course, has been something that they were incredibly focused on since Biden took office and having 80 percent to 90 percent of the world's GDP at this conference, at this summit of world leaders, agreed to pursue that.

It's something that they would say is incredibly significant and it does set an example they believe going forward to present this race to the bottom among corporations to find tax havens to operate out of. So, they would point to that.

And we also got news overnight that the United States has struck an agreement with the European Union on those steel and aluminum tariffs that, of course, were put in place by former President Trump and caused quite some economic tension between the two, between the United States and several other nations, but especially the European Union. And so, that is also some progress that the White House would point to.

But I think when you step back and you look at the bigger picture, this is the first G-20 summit, Manu, that has happened in two years, since the COVID-19 pandemic. And so for the president here on the world stage, he is attempting to reassure them of that message that he had brought to the G-7 summit a few months ago, which is that America was back, and they are committed to these alliances.

And, of course, the things have shifted in the last four to five months when it came to the criticism from allies over the U.S.-led exit from Afghanistan. Of course, you saw the president in recent days smoothing over tensions with the French leader as well. And now he's preparing to head to this climate summit after he wraps up his meetings here today.

Of course, that is what you have heard from scientists and global experts saying this is the time to get concrete commitments from some of the world's biggest leader to commit to that, to make changes when it comes to the climate change. Otherwise, they are going to risk catastrophe.

RAJU: Yeah. Big questions, a lot of details, though, we expect to get in the hours ahead.

Kaitlan Collins, thank you for joining us.

And joining us now here with their reporting and their insight, Julie Pace of "The Associated Press", Jonathan Martin of "The New York Times", "Politico's" Rachael Bade, and "The Wall Street Journal's" Sabrina Siddiqui. So, Julie, give me your take so far on the summit. The president,

they're touting this victory in Rome for the global minimum tax, the summit focused on policy, than the personality conflicts between the Trump administration?

JULIE PACE, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ASSOCIATED PRESS: And I think this is where Biden would like to be. He doesn't want this to be a relationship between the U.S. and allies focused on personalities. He sees opportunities to rebuild alliances and make some progress on key issues, economic issues. I think really significant they were able to roll back the tariffs with the EU, a real point of tension there.

But as he heads from the G-20 into the COP climate summit, I think you're going to see some of the limitations of these alliances. There are very low expectations that countries are going to come out of COP with anything that really is significant.

RAJU: Yeah.

PACE: You some have individual commitments from countries on their own targets, but in terms of moving the globe forward and tackling this challenge, the reality is that we're just not in a place where that's going to happen and that really butts up against the science and butts up against what experts are saying about the time frame that we have to deal with this really existential crisis.

[08:05:02]

RAJU: Yeah, optics versus actual concrete solutions. That's one of the big questions that comes out of this.

But, Jonathan, you know, Biden, a lot -- changed since June last time when he met with the G-7. Just look at his relationship with the rest of the world and things that have occurred since then. The chaos in Afghanistan, we saw everything that happened with the delta variant surge, supply chain problems across the globe, inflation, this diplomatic fight with France, and overall here in the U.S., Biden's approval rating is down.

JONATHAN MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Difference presidency.

RAJU: Different presidency.

MARTIN: Yeah. It really is. And you see that across the board. And obviously those issues trail him abroad as well. You know, part of this mission is doing some cleanup too.

In very Joe Biden fashion, he says things very bluntly. You know, admitting for the cameras that they had blundered with their relationship with the French and Biden seeming to throw his own staff under the bus and the process was a nice touch by the president for us.

But, look, he ran and I think conveyed to the American people he would restore relationships around the world, that the former president obviously sort of created challenges with. Harder in practice, right, because you have to sometimes pick among your friends. It doesn't matter if you're Joe Biden, former chairman, you have to pick among your friends and that is going to leave some bitter feelings.

RAJU: Yeah, has he succeeded, do you think, in preparing the relationships or still the jury is out on that?

SABRINA SIDDIQUI, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think that certainly this trip so far according to the White House has been more focused on, you know, global commitment around key issues with respect to the economy, climate change, COVID-19, national security, there are some talks about potentially restarting the Iran nuclear accord.

And, you know, a lot of the focus had been on the U.S.' chaotic exit from Afghanistan as you pointed out. Of course, that diplomatic -- the diplomatic dispute between France and the United States. But for Biden it is the challenge is reasserting American credibility and what he really ran on that the U.S. is once again going to assert itself on the global stage.

And so, coming out with a couple of wins, whether easing these steel and aluminum tariffs, a major sense of tension with the E.U., this global minimum tax rate, which the administration is saying could generate $68 billion in additional revenue in the U.S. alone, and perhaps some kind of commitment around climate that president is expected to tout, you know, more than $500 billion in spending in this framework and that's not yet law, but a significant commitment on the part of the U.S.

I think they'll consider it more of a success because there is not as much focus overseas and the domestic battle unfolding over here. So, I think as long as he comes back with a few commitments on the global stage, they'll consider it to be a successful trip.

RAJU: And, Rachael, he's trying to tie foreign policy to domestic policy. You heard him making that argument on Capitol Hill last week, saying we need to pass something, agenda, to show that democracy works. That's the argument that he's been making, other members of the Democratic leadership. Does that resonate among the members here?

RACHAEL BADE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: On the world stage, I mean --

RAJU: Well, here in Washington.

BADE: Here in Washington, no, I think for Nancy Pelosi, I mean, it certainly does. She -- one of the things she said to her caucus on Thursday was we cannot embarrass the president, you know, as he's going abroad. We need to give him a win and boost him on the international stage.

And, you know, as you mentioned, he wants to stand up in next couple of days on the climate summit and say, look, the United States is reasserting itself to tackle global warming after four years of doing nothing under the Trump administration and in order to do that, he wants a win. And does it make a difference he has passed the bill or not passed the bill? I think a lot of us in D.C. think this bill will get passed at some point. It is a question of when. So, you know, the fact he can go and show up with 500 billion -- I'm

going to be funneling $500 billion of tax credits into, you know, the energy sector to try to move to clean energy, that's something. But, yeah, I think for lawmakers on Capitol Hill, they wanted to get it done before then, but the sausage-making is messy. And this kind of stuff takes time.

RAJU: You know, listen to what the former NATO secretary-general said in "The Washington Post" on Friday. After four years with Trump, the world is very, very curious whether this is a lasting new direction of American politics or could risk a return to Trumpism in 2024. It will be an uphill effort for Biden to convince his allies and partners that he has changed American attitudes profoundly.

What do you think about that?

PACE: This is the reaction that Biden is facing in the rest of the world. Coming out of the 2020 election, there was a huge sigh of relief it was going to be Joe Biden serving for president for four years, as proposed to Donald Trump, but very few are convinced that Biden represents a significant and long lasting shift. There is an open question of whether he is a place holder or whether he is actually going to signal that Trump is in the past.

[08:10:03]

And I think if you look at where we are in the U.S., don't think anybody would argue that Trump is in the past or Trumpism is in the past.

I don't even think Joe Biden feels that way right now. I don't think he can make a convincing argument to that effect when he's having these meetings.

RAJU: Do you agree?

MARTIN: Yeah. Absolutely. I think that the former NATO chief is spot on in his assessment, there are questions whether or not we have moved. Not just from Trumpism, but the kind of deep polarization and tribalism that is the defining element of American politics today.

You don't have to be a poli sci major, even professor, to realize that's what's happening here in our times. And that that's what shaping elections and politics generally.

RAJU: Yeah. We'll see how the president deals with it. There's still more to come. He'll speak today to the cameras. We'll see what he says when he gets questions from reporters.

Next, it hasn't been pretty, but Democrats finally may be on track to pass a massive economic agenda through Congress.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:15:14] RAJU: Sources tell CNN House leaders now think both parts of Biden's agenda could be ready to pass as soon as Tuesday. Yes, we have heard that before. Democrats have set and missed a series of deadlines for passing President Biden's sweeping economic agenda. But this time, progressives signed off on changes made to Biden's Build Back Better Plan. It's half the size it wanted, but the leader of the progressive caucus says it is still transformational.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAYAPAL: We want universal child care for every family to not pay more than 7 percent of their income. We want universal pre-K. We want the biggest investment in housing ever. We want a massive investment in climate. And we want some significant wins on healthcare.

So I mean, look, I think this is -- this should be a time for us to talk about how great that is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Now, the House progressives are meeting today to discuss their strategy.

But, Rachael, they have been demanding that Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema sign off on this larger deal. They want commitments set. If it passes the House, it is going to pass the senate, before they agree to support the infrastructure bill, $1.2 trillion plan.

How do you see this playing out? Do you think they'll simply take a leap of faith and hope that Manchin and Sinema will be there at the end of the day?

BADE: I think the fact that you have Pramila Jayapal blessing and praising this $1.75 trillion deal when she wanted $6 trillion deal a few months ago is really significant. I mean, obviously, there is questions about sequencing, they weren't able to get this bipartisan infrastructure vote this week because progressives want more of these commitments from these moderate Senate Democrats.

But I think the fact you have two Senate Democrats who are willing to support this framework, and you have progressives out there saying they endorse the framework and not balking and trying to get additional provisions in this is really significant, clearly it's only a matter of time.

And this comes as, you know, Bernie Sanders at the same time in the Senate was saying in the morning that he wanted to make changes to this framework. So, the fact that you have progressives in the house saying they want to rally is a huge deal and huge win and one very overcast by the sequencing fight we saw last week. This is really a matter of time before we get this done.

RAJU: Yeah, and they'll probably -- they'll make changes to the bill, they're starting to do that now. We'll see what they come out with a new version of the $1.75 trillion plan, a question. A question, but, you know, on Biden's performance. He comes to Capitol Hill, second time, talks to the House Democratic caucus. He called on a vote, but didn't specify the vote to happen on Thursday as Nancy Pelosi wanted. She ultimately had to punt because progress progressives said Joe Biden doesn't ask for us to vote.

This is how one more moderate Democrat said to me on Thursday night, Dean Phillips from Minnesota. He said, I'm not afraid to say I wish he was more explicit. If the president led us down that hallway and on to the house floor, I think it would have been close. I think with the Republican votes, it would have passed.

The question is the president doing enough to get this done right now?

SIDDIQUI: Well, there is certainly some Democrats who feel like President Biden could be doing more, but just some context, you know, prior to him going to Capitol Hill, Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, the leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, did convey to the White House that they shouldn't pressure progressives to hold the vote. She did express concern that if he did, then he would perhaps head to Europe with a failed vote on his hands, which would have been more embarrassing to him.

So, I think the White House calculated this is a delicate balancing act and so, you know, they would have liked to see a vote, at least on infrastructure. But he's really navigating still meeting the demands of Senators Manchin and Sinema while also keeping the progressive caucus in line. But I think putting out that framework ahead of the trip was a way of signaling we got to wrap up this, here's a framework that hopefully everyone can agree to.

And as Rachel pointed out, I think it is significant that the progressive caucus came out and endorsed, even though it did not include paid family leave, tuition free community college, the number is significantly lower than what progressives would have wanted. Progressives are signaling they will ultimately get a buy in from Sinema and Manchin. So, we'll see if they have a vote before the president returns from Europe.

But I think, you know, if they don't, I think you can certainly see the president continue those conversations. Maybe make another visit to the Hill.

RAJU: Look, this could become law and this could be significant. It could have real impact. The problem the Democrats have is they're running now. They're running in Virginia now. They're dealing with the midterms next year.

It's going to take a long time for these policies to be implemented. I mean, look at the way Obamacare took forever to get done. It got done on March 2010. They lost the House that year.

It's more popular now. It wasn't popular then. Are they going to see any political benefit from this comes next year?

MARTIN: I think that depends where the economy is, where the country is next year. The parallels with '09 and '10 are eerie though.

[08:20:00]

They -- president Biden did not sell the stimulus then, I think, to the red of many Democrats, very aggressively and the health care issue, while sweeping and long term very popular, in the moment was not seen as something, Manu, that was addressing the needs of the American voters.

I think today we're having the same conversation in part because this is a process-heavy debate. But people in this country are focused on getting past COVID and rising prices they are seeing all around them. And right now, Julie, they don't see how this agenda connects to that.

PACE: I think that's exactly right. Even if next year, some of the key provisions in this bill, if it ultimately passes, are not being (AUDIO GAP) down, if the economy overall improves, it's more of those macro level issues that I think will affect it more than anything for Democrats.

But Joe Biden and Democrats do have to get out and now sell the actual elements of this bill. It's been so process heavy and that's because process is how you get things done. If you're an American who's been kind of dipping in and out of this coverage trying to figure out what's going on in Washington, I think it would be really hard for you to quickly say yes, I would get X, Y and Z. That is not really --

RAJU: It's very confusing. And, look, this is what voters actually say, according to an AP poll from October 21 through 25th, about what should be the highest priority in the economic plan -- health care, number one, 64 percent. Education after that at 59 percent. Climate change, childcare and paid leave is at 27 percent.

Of course, paid leave, as we know at the moment, is out of the bill. They are lobbying to get Manchin to support it.

Do you guys think the Democrats made the right choice about what it punt, to punt on, to kill family leave from this bill?

BADE: I mean, it's a balancing act. Bernie Sanders got a promise from Chuck Schumer (AUDIO GAP) Medicare in this bill, coverage for seniors, and that's scrapped right now. I mean, they have to deal with -- the numbers that they have. They have 50 Senate Democrats. They cannot lose a single one, and they have two moderates who are not willing to support some of these things.

And so, you know, the problem Democrats have is they overpromised. They talk about $6 trillion and $3.5 trillion and all these things that people are going to get for free -- well, they can't deliver if they don't have the numbers. Ands they don't have the numbers, and so, they have to scale back their provisions.

PACE: The irony of the thing is Biden's strategy when he came to office was to underpromise (AUDIO GAP) --

RAJU: You have the messaging issue, they would have focused on individual smaller bills, Nancy Pelosi is making the argument these are transformational, one of these provisions. Whether it's universal pre-K or money for home health care, dealing with disabled be $550 for climate change but they didn't do that, they lumped it all together. And that's been the challenge.

SADDIQUI: The big thing too is what comes next? The White House said the president is committed to paid family leave. You know, midterms aren't looking particular promising for Democrats. He could effectively become a lame duck president. They have the narrowest majority.

So, you know, he did signal in the CNN town hall that he may be open to some changes to the filibuster. So I think a lot of Republicans are looking to see if and when they pass these bills, are they going to move forward on paid family bill and tuition free community college. Other issues like voting rights and police reform and really animate Democrats going into the midterms because I think if they fall through on a lot of these commitments they made and campaign promises, there are not a lot of incentives for Democrats to go to the polls.

So, it's not just this package of bills, what do they do after, and is this it?

RAJU: Yeah and --

MARTIN: That's the unspoken part of it, is this it? I think everybody kind of realizes this may be their only bite at the apple and a lot of these issues before we have a midterm that can change hands.

RAJU: And during midterm season, as we know, things don't really happen on Capitol Hill. But before there's a midterm, there's a Virginia governor's race come Tuesday. Voters have hours left to choose their next governor. Republican Glenn Youngkin says he has the momentum but Democrats insists he's too extreme for his state that's been trending blue.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: Extremism can come in many forms, it can come in a rage of a mob driven an assault -- driven to assault the Capitol. It can come in a smile and a fleece vest.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:28:54]

RAJU: Could the GOP take back the Virginia governor's mansion on Tuesday? Polls show a tight race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin just days before election.

Now, McAuliffe has brought in some big names from President Biden, VP Harris, and musician and Virginia native Pharrell Williams to help make this closing pitch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TERRY MCAULIFFE (D-VA), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: The choice is do we go forward in a positive way or do we get down in the muck that we've seen under Donald Trump for the last four years. My opponent has been endorsed by Trump now eight times.

Donald Trump and Glenn Youngkin are trying to run down the democracy in this country and we will not tolerate it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Meanwhile Youngkin is focused on local issues namely education.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GLENN YOUNGKIN (R-VA), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: This is no longer a campaign. It is a movement being led by Virginia parents.

We're going to send a shockwave across this country and there's not going to be a Democrat in any seat anywhere in this nation who's going to think that his or her seat is safe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: CNN's Eva McKend joins us for this part of the conversation. Let's talk about this race. JMart, you've been spending a lot of time down there as well. How nervous are Democrat heading into Tuesday?

JONATHAN MARTIN, "NEW YORK TIMES": Very nervous. There is a history of the pendulum swinging back in Virginia. Typically the party that wins the presidency loses the governorships next year. I think there was some rationalization if you will among Democrats early in the year that that's not going to happen because the state is just too blue now.

It's just structurally that cannot happen because now it's a blue state. As we know, governor's races are different nationally. You do have Democrats who win in more red states and vice versa sometimes.

So I'm not terribly surprised that the race is competitive. Where I think it matters nationally though is, first of all, if Youngkin does win, what's the immediate fallout on Capitol Hill? If they have not come to an agreement yet, Manu and voted on these two bills, is there pressure to, you know, pare back the bill more -- the second bill more? Is there pressure to go bigger because, well, we're never going to pass anything else now so we may as well use this chance?

And just on a timing generally how does that shape the bill? And I think more broadly -- I think it's going to cause Democrats to consider, do I want to run for re-election and end my career on a loss in a tough midterm election?

RAJU: And will they keep the majority, there will be a huge fear if they lose on Wednesday.

Eva, you've spent a lot of time on the campaign trail. You've been talking to voters. Let's just look at what they're saying what their top priorities are here.

You have the shift really from September to October. Look at education was at 15 percent in September. Look at it now, 24 percent of voters view that as a top priority, up about 10 percent here. The economy down by four points here and then the pandemic down from 16 percent now to 10 percent. And does that match what you're hearing from voters on the campaign trail?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL REPORTER: Yes, absolutely. And the McAuliffe campaign will push back and say, you know, we've been focusing on education for a while. This is not a new issue for us. We've been talking about giving teachers a pay raise. We've been talking about addressing the learning loss because of COVID.

But it is this parents matter message that Glenn Youngkin has seized on that seems to be resonating with a lot of people. When you go on the campaign trail and you speak to people showing up at his rallies, that is what they are saying.

They're animated by this. You know, Terry McAuliffe, my understanding, or he will tell you, he does not hate parents. But that is certainly the perception that people have that are showing up to Youngkin's rallies.

RAJU: Yes.

MCKEND: Another big issue for them is how race is taught in Virginia public schools. The history of racism in America and its impact. They say that that is their number one issue.

RAJU: And, of course, that comment that McAuliffe's made at the debate, I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach -- that becoming an issue. And that, of course, becoming on the campaign --

MARTIN: Not an ideal call.

(CROSSTALK)

MCKEND: That did not land though on that night. I was in the press room and the moment of the night was when Glenn Youngkin was asked about COVID vaccine mandates for kids and if he supported the vaccines for mumps and rubella and measles.

Well, by the same logic, wouldn't he also support the vaccination for COVID for kids when it's available? And that was a big moment, not this. but the Youngkin campaign very smartly politically, picked up on this and it is what it is now.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTINGLY: McAuliffe is betting on some backlash against Youngkin. He had an ad campaign who featured a woman who saw that Toni Morrison's "Beloved", banned from her son's school.

Listen to how Terry McAuliffe dealt with this in an ad. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Glenn Youngkin supports banning books by Toni Morrison and other black authors in Virginia classrooms. We know what this is. Just like Donald Trump, Glenn is trying to silence our voices.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Effective?

PACE: Well, I mean McAuliffe is leaning in to this debate over education and schools. I mean he's not trying to run away from it. He sees this as a potential issue that can motivate his base as well.

But it also is his way of trying to link Youngkin to Trump. I mean Trump cuts, you know, two ways and McAuliffe believes that there is still enough energy among Democrats in terms of trying to keep Trump and Trump acolytes at bay here.

But I think the question that he's going to face to our earlier conversation is what else can he be running on proactively? This has been his challenge. He's acknowledged this in these final days, you know, he would really like to be out there talking about a specific bill that has already passed. And that's going to be Democrats' challenge going into the midterms.

They've got to be able to talk about Trump and also talk about things that are not about Trump.

MATTINGLY: I want you to first listen -- before you weigh in Rachael -- about what Republican pollster Frank Luntz, he said about the infrastructure bill that Terry McAuliffe has been demanding get passed, it has not gotten passed. Maybe it will get passed on Tuesday just as voters are finishing voting on Election Day. This is what the Republican pollster said.

[08:34:52]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FRANK LUNTZ, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: I don't think that Democratic passage will have an impact in Virginia. I do think that attitudes towards President Biden and former President Trump matter a great deal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: What do you think?

BADE: Yes. I mean look, if they pass it too late -- if they pass it Tuesday, it's going to be too late to make a difference. I mean obviously, people in Virginia -- you know, we were hearing from Democrats on Capitol Hill that they wanted this bill to pass a while ago, right. Like Virginia -- they wanted it passed as early as last week to have

some sort of benefit and churn voters out. So it's probably going to be too late.

But just to go back to, you know, Terry McAuliffe saying now maybe he wants a more positive message. Look, he's the one who has been bringing up Trump over and over again. He's been using the former president's name more perhaps than his own opponent.

And so he's really made this race about Trump. And you know, that's tough when you have someone like Youngkin, who has clearly, you know -- they're not the same person. He's talking about, you know, being a suburban dad, wearing his zip-up fleece, you know, going to soccer games and just has a very different tone than the former president.

So it will be an interesting test case though to see if he can sort of test case that he has whether he can get Trump's endorsement but sort of keep him at arm's length, can he really win?

MATTINGLY: And that's the question, I mean Eva, do Republican voters care at all that Youngkin is not fully embracing the former president. He says he's not going to be part of the Trump tele-rally tomorrow. Do voters -- do voters care about that?

MCKEND: No, not at all. They are elated that they have a real chance in Virginia, right. For the first time in a dozen years to have a Republican that could win statewide.

So you know, Youngkin giving sort of a wink and a nod to Trumpism through this early conversation about election integrity, that is sort of good enough, right. The prospect of having a conservative and conservative policies, that is what motivates them. That is what they're energized about. It's not about Trump.

RAJU: What do you think?

MARTIN: Yes, I think that they have largely given him a pass because Trump himself has been on his best behavior. Trump is not Glenn Youngkin. He's not putting out statements saying why is Youngkin giving me the Heisman and stiff-arming me and keeping me out of the great commonwealth of Virginia?

You may call it a state, it's a commonwealth. But -- so that has been enormously helpful. Also helpful, not being on Twitter. You ask any Republican strategist privately, they will say one of the best gifts they've had is Trump being off Twitter because he just doesn't have the presence like he used to. He doesn't jam them like he used to, which is why it's now Democrats who are trying to elevate him.

I was joking with somebody earlier today, you know, Trump doing this tele-town hall rally on Monday, you know, McAuliffe, I'm sure is going to try to elevate it much more than Youngkin himself is, right.

He's more energetic about elevating Trump because it's the best asset that the GOP has. It's their best turnout lever to this day. And so yes, they're focusing on it but so much so that questions can be raised, what's your math (ph) -- what's your agenda?

RAJU: And one thing Republicans in Virginia and Capitol can agree on, they're happy Donald Trump is not on Twitter.

And don't forget to join CNN for live coverage of the governor's races in both Virginia and New Jersey. Tune in on Tuesday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.

Up next for us, the climate crisis summit. Can the world still avoid the worst?

[08:38:11]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: Stronger hurricanes, bigger wildfires, longer droughts, one- third of Americans experienced extreme weather this summer. Scientists say climate change already is here but climate policy hasn't kept up. Half of Americans say current U.S. policies do not go far enough to combat climate change. Now, President Biden is trying to change that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Over a billion metric tons of emission reductions, at least ten times bigger on climate than any bill that has ever passed before and enough to position us for a 50 percent to 52 percent emissions reductions by the year 2030.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Joining me now is climate scientist Dr. Katharine Hayhoe. Dr. Hayhoe, thank you so much for joining us this morning.

Democrats, they have set aside $555 billion for climate and clean energy programs in this new social spending bill. But what exactly is this amount of money going towards, and is it enough to cut emissions by 50 percent like the president wants?

DR. KATHARINE HAYHOE, CLIMATE SCIENTIST: Well, the reality is we have no more time to lose. The crisis of climate and biodiversity laws are here today and as you just pointed out in the intro, they're hitting us here now.

We used to back in the 1980s, have $1 billion weather and climate disaster about every three months anywhere across the U.S. Now we're getting one about every two and a half weeks.

So when people say how much is too much to fix the climate crisis, that's the wrong question. The question is, how much are you willing to spend to save the economy because that's what's at risk.

It's not about saving the planet, it's literally about saving us. And our economy is one of the first things that is already suffering the impacts of climate change.

So is the bill enough? I hope so. But we can only use more and we know that this bill is being negotiated. There are things being taken out and put in and it's a real concern that this bill may not meet the ambitious targets that the world is agreeing on in Glasgow this month.

RAJU: Yes. And this is going to be a key focus in discussions this week for President Biden at COP26, that summit overseas. So what might get accomplished there at COP26 and how would you measure success?

DR. HAYHOE: The nations are going there for two reasons, one is for all the high emitting countries like the United States to show what they're doing to cut their emissions.

[08:44:44]

DR. HAYHOE: But the other reason they're going is something that's called "climate finance". And that's kind of a wonkish term that basically means back in Paris in 2015 in the Paris agreement, all the countries in the world agreed to put money into a green climate fund to help developing countries develop without depending on fossil fuels and to help them adapt and prepare for the impacts they can't avoid anymore.

And to date the latest analysis I saw said that the United States has only contributed 20 percent of what it promised to the green climate fund.

Canada, 40 percent; the only country that's contributed all of it as of the latest news I saw was Norway.

So these are the two things that are going to be discussed. And what would be a success in Glasgow? A success would be if we came out of it with enough emission reductions to keep warming below 2 degrees, and 1.5 if we can, and with enough commitments to developing countries to give them the support that they need. Because they didn't cause this problem, and they're bearing the brunt of the impacts.

RAJU: As you mentioned one of the critical focuses of the summit will be agreeing on those policies to keep warming below critical thresholds.

You know, before the Paris deal, the planet was on pace to warm by 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which scientists say would be catastrophic. But even if the world meets its pledged commitments, and so far as we've talked about here, is it, we're still on track for this 2 degrees of warming.

Scientists say the target should be 1.5 degrees. So today the G20 will actually call for action to keep warming to that level, but Dr. Hayhoe, is that at all realistic?

DR. HAYHOE: Well, right now with the promises that countries have made, we're on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius warming. And we want, again, to hold it below 2 degrees and 1.5 if we can.

So what does the science say? There's no magic threshold that we can somehow avoid all impacts if we get below a certain temperature because we are already seeing dangerous impacts today. The massive heat wave and the wild fire west last summer, over 150 times more likely because of the impact of a changing climate.

So the risks are already here today. And what the science says is this, literally, every bit of warming counts. The further up the global thermometer ticks, the more risk we are all at and the greater the economic damages as well.

RAJU: So much to talk about this week, we will see if it actually leads to concrete action or talk. We'll see.

Dr. Hayhoe, we appreciate you coming on this morning and giving us your expertise.

And coming up for us, a high-profile Trump critic announces he won't run for re-election.

[08:47:19]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: Republican riffs in redistricting take their toll on a rising GOP star. Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, one of ten Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump isn't running for re- election.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ADAM KINZINGER (R-IL): There's little to no desire to bridge our differences, and unity is no longer a word we use. It has also become increasingly obvious to me that in order to break the narrative, I cannot focus on both a re-election to Congress and a broader fight nationwide.

I want to make it clear, this isn't the end of my political future, but the beginning.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Now, the former president's response was not so subtle saying "Two down, eight to go."

Rachael, what was the reaction to Kinzinger's message and why do you think he made this move now?

BADE: I mean look, it's just the latest Trump critic to fall, even after President Trump is gone. It continues to show that he has a firm grip on the party and I mean it's really hard to be a Republican criticizing Trump and running for office again. I mean I was thinking back to earlier this year after Kinzinger voted to impeach and he sort of went out there and said he's going to raise a bunch of money and going to primary Republicans who supported the big lie.

What a big change it's been in ten months to see him saying I'm going to go on the offense against Republicans to I can't even run for re- election right now.

RAJU: And of course, redistricting made things hard for him as well. What do you think it says though JMart, on the state of the GOP?

MARTIN: Well, let's be clear that he was, he lost (INAUDIBLE). The Dems in Illinois were doing him no favors despite his critique of former President Trump, they're trying to pick up seats in the delegation and politics is ruthless when it comes to the redraw of the map in both parties.

Even if he had run for reelection, he would have faced a really tough primary in his old seat. It's just tough to be that public of a critic of the former president and survive in the primary electorate of the Republican Party.

I think of the ten who voted to impeach President Trump, he's probably the least surprising of the ones who were not going to run for re- election, so I'm not shocked by it. It does though point out that if you're going to be an outspoken voice it's pretty lonely in that company.

(CROSSTALK)

PACE: -- the house, I mean this is one of the fascinating questions about Kinzinger is what he does he do next? Does he run for Senate? Does he run for governor in Illinois and is there space for an anti Trump Republican in an office like that in a state like Illinois which is not a far right state.

RAJU: Right. And also the key parts of -- his part of the January 6th committee investigating the insurrection. He's one of two Republicans defying his leadership and deciding to join that committee investigating the insurrection.

This comes as Donald Trump is trying to block that committee from getting a whole host of his records that they're trying to get here. From CNN reporting from Friday, "The records that Trump wants to keep secret include handwritten memos from his chief of staff about January 6th, call of the then-president and former vice president Mike Pence, and White House visitor records.

Those records include working papers from then White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, the press secretary and a White House lawyer who had notes and memos about Trump's efforts to undermine the election.

Sabrina, do you think that this effort is going to work to keep these records secret?

SIDDIQUI: Well, it's going to certainly lead to a protractive legal battle. We already know that the Biden administration has said that executive privilege would not apply in this particular situation.

[08:54:54]

SIDDIQUI: They believe that it is in the nation's interest to get more information about what the White House and the former president may have known in the lead-up to the January 6th insurrection.

Look, former president Trump obviously encouraged his supporters to go to that rally. At that rally he incited them to go to the Capitol and make their voices heard. But I think that, you know, what this legal battle will do is have pretty significant implications for the reach of executive privilege for the kind of authority that former presidents have over documents from their time in the White House after they leave office as well as the powers of Congress to subpoena, congressional subpoena power.

So you know, we'll see where this lands. But ultimately I think the committee will prevail. Again, it's no secret that former President Trump wants to keep these documents secret because they probably will reveal a lot more about the extent to which he and his aides were perhaps involved in the events that led up to January 6th.

RAJU: And the question is they may succeed but when it will happen after the midterms. Particularly (ph) when the Republicans take back majority and end that investigation for good.

MARTIN: Right.

RAJU: Thank you panel, for joining us.

That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. Join us back here every Sunday at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time and the weekday show as well at noon eastern.

Up next for us, "STATE OF THE UNION" with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. Dana's guests include Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. Happy Halloween. Happy birthday to my wife Archana.

See you next time.

[08:56:11]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)