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WH: Biden Will Meet With Putin If Russian Leader Doesn't Invade Ukraine; Putin Says U.S. Offered Possible "Moratorium" On Ukraine Joining NATO; WH Denies His Claim; WH Warns "Extremely Violent" Russian Attack On Ukraine Could Begin "In The Coming Hours Or Days"; U.S. Has Credible Info About Russian "Kill List" For Ukraine Invasion; Arbery Killers Face Federal Hate-Crime Charges; Dem Advisers Raise Alarm About Party's Prospects In Midterms; Three San Francisco School Board Members Recalled By Voters. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired February 21, 2022 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Hello, and welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Abby Phillip in for John King in Washington. Joe Biden says, he will meet with Vladimir Putin but only if the Russian leader doesn't invade Ukraine. The problem American intelligence officials say that Putin has already ordered his commanders to do exactly that.

Plus, a warning for Democrats from three of its most high-profile campaign gurus. A midterm shellacking is coming in November, if the White House doesn't stop celebrating and start listening. And a weekend case study and how Washington Republicans navigate a big party divide, the choice between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell.

But first, a new diplomatic scramble, a last-ditch Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin summit is now on the table. And the White House says, Biden has agreed to the meeting in principle. But there is one big condition, it will only happen if Russia doesn't invade Ukraine.

President Biden's decision is complicated by reports that American intelligence officials have a high level of confidence that Putin has already decided to attack. And today at the Kremlin, the Russian president has convened his national security council. Here this morning, the White House National Security Advisor appeared on each network morning show to again sound the alarm.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAKE SULLIVAN, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR: We have seen just in the last 24 hours, further moves of Russian units to the border. With no other good explanation other than they're getting into position to attack. Every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is that they are in fact getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine. What we have done is indicate to the world that this is not something Russia has been provoked into.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIP: CNN is on the front lines of this story around the globe. But we start off at our coverage at the White House with CNN's MJ Lee. So, MJ, the White House says that they aren't going to close the door on diplomacy. Are they really prepared to take this meeting? How likely do you think it is?

MJ LEE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Abby, for now, President Biden is prepared to meet with Vladimir Putin. But there is a huge caveat, and that caveat is that meeting only happens as if Russia does not invade Ukraine. And all of the words that we have heard over the weekend from this administration, is that the outlook does not look good.

We heard National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, making clear over the weekend that if this attack were to happen, it would be incredibly violent, but this is an invasion that could happen any day now. He used the phrasing any hour or in the coming hours or the coming days. He said this is a kind of invasion that would kill Russians, it would kill Ukrainians. It would also impact civilians and military personnel. So, this is a very sort of grim outlook that we're hearing from this administration.

And of course, over the weekend, we saw President Biden are really keeping close tabs on the situation. We saw him yesterday convene a meeting with members of his national security council. We also know that he spoke with French president Emmanuel Macron. And today this morning, we have seen a flurry of activity here at the White House as well.

We've seen Vice President Kamala Harris, who of course, just returned from the Munich security council. She has now arrived at the White House. We have seen Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, he is also here. CIA Director, Bill Burns, he is also here.

So, clearly this is shaping up to be another day where President Biden is going to be in close contact with his top security folks to make sure that he understands this fastmoving situation. But again, even as this White House is trying to go the route of diplomacy and last- minute deterrence, again, they have made very clear that the outlook right now does not look very good. Abby?

PHILLIP: A very tense situation unfolding at the White House. And you can tell often, as you said, MJ by who's coming in and out. But let's go now to Ukraine, where CNN's Matthew Chance is standing by live in Kyiv. Matthew, there was more shelling in Donbass overnight. Is there any sign today that Russia is doing anything except preparing for an invasion?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's a good question. But look, I mean, you're right about the shelling. There has been heightened tensions in that region of eastern Ukraine where there's been a war being fought between Russian rebels and government forces for the past eight years. The violations of the ceasefire in that region have been really exploding literally, over the course of the past 72 hours. And so, that's really ratcheted up tensions.

The fact that has been civilians ordered that by the local authorities or the rebel authorities into Russia has, you know, kind of increased that sense that there is a humanitarian crisis, a manufactured one, perhaps, but nevertheless, that's happening there in Donbass, as it's cold in eastern Ukraine. And it does look.

[12:05:00]

If you look at the military intelligence, so we're getting that, Russian forces tens of thousands of them, which have gathered near to the borders of Ukraine are positioning themselves into a place, which means they'd be more ready to strike. And of course, it was that intelligence over the weekend that the order has actually been given to commanders on the ground to attack.

But we have not seen that attack yet. It is still just notional. It is still just an option, a trigger, if you will, for Vladimir Putin to pull if he decides to finally go with that strategy. But there are other options that is generated as well. Today, the national security council of Russia had a televised event.

They broadcast this highly choreographed session of the security council in Russia, in which they were discussing the possibility Vladimir Putin and his top officials of recognizing those rebel republics in the east of Ukraine as independent states. It's something that's been sort of in the background for a long time, it's now coming to the foreground.

And to be clear, Abby, if Russia does recognize those rebel Republics as independent states, it will do so through an act of its own parliament, it would then presumably be allowed if those rebel republics invite Russian troops to come in, be allowed to deploy its forces and argue that this is not in violation of international law.

Now, the United States and the Ukrainians have made it clear that they would - they believe that that would be a gross violation of the Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty. And there would be consequences for that in terms of punishment, if you like for Russia doing that.

But I think the chances are and this may be part of Vladimir Putin's calculus, that the tough sanctions that have been promised by the Biden administration, if Russia invades this country, may not be imposed, if it just recognizes these republics. And so, it may be a way for Putin to escalate but to avoid the tough sanctions that have been promised by the international community of invades.

PHILLIP: A fascinating observation there and developments that are happening at the moment, a minute by minute, Matthew Chance in Kyiv, thank you very much. And here to share his reporting and perspective is David Sanger of The New York Times. David, you've got a pretty sober, arguably terrifying piece of the times today, saying that a Russian attack would be the largest and most violent battle for European territory since the Nazi surrender in 1945.

You report this as well that the Pentagon and American intelligence officials have described a worst-case scenario that they now consider to be likely, a week or two of terror, constant rocket attacks and street fighting, and ultimately, a hunt for anyone who supported the democratically elected government of President Volodymyr Zelensky. So, David, I mean, why are American officials now convinced that this is what will play out in the days ahead?

DAVID SANGER, WHITE HOUSE AND NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES: It's a really fascinating divide. So, the Pentagon officials and most intelligence officials will tell you that if you look at the array of forces, and based on the intelligence they've collected, presumably their sources within the military in Russia that is beginning to be arrayed along the borders. They think that Putin strategy will be the goal for all of Ukraine.

If you listen to what Matthew was saying, and you watched that theater of the Russian national security meeting today, they were talking largely about annexing this area that has been the source of separatists fighting, largely Russian speaking. And I think Matthew had it right, that their calculation may be that if you take that part, you don't get the full sanctions.

And so, the issue is, is Putin preparing to try to take the whole country? Or do it in small bites? Or is he trying to do a sort of python move where he squeezes the government until he destroys it? Remember, his goal here is to get a friendly puppet government in Kyiv. And to do so with the least amount of economic penalties on him, or casualties to his own troops. And the question is, what's the strategy that gets him there?

PHILLIP: And given all of that that you described, I mean, maybe he takes a small bite. Putin seems to be moving incrementally toward a scenario in which something happens. And yet, they're still talk of this, of this summit at the end of the week. I mean, what is the real likelihood of this summit actually occurring? And Putin deciding to invade any way, maybe invade, simply go into those separatists' regions as you were talking about?

[12:10:00]

SANGER: My own view is you're not seeing a presidential summit anytime soon. We did hear today from the Russian foreign minister that he planned to go ahead with a meeting in Geneva on Thursday, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was just here in Munich, where I am now at the Munich Security Conference. Mr. Blinken said to us, before he left, that he would not go to that meeting if Russia had invaded before then, the same condition that's there for the meeting for the President.

So, you can see what the U.S. is doing here. It's the hostage negotiation strategy, right? They're trying to go negotiate with the hostage taker and keep them talking, and hoping that if you keep them talking, they don't actually pull the trigger. I think the risks for President Biden, if he did go ahead with that meeting would be pretty high. Most presidential summits are highly choreographed.

You and I have covered them together, you know what they're like? You don't go into those with much mystery about what's going to come out of them. And of course, it's a haven't made much progress on the fundamental issue, which is Putin's demand that the west pull back, the western allies pull back its military forces, its nuclear weapons from any place where the old Soviet bloc is today. Well, that's a pretty fundamental issue, about how you defend the west that I suspect they're not going to make much progress on.

PHILLIP: I want to play what the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan talked about this morning, which is the prospect of a hit list for targeted assassinations if Russia were to move forward with invasion.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SULLIVAN: We also have intelligence to suggest that there will be an even greater form of brutality because this will not simply be some conventional war between two armies. It will be a war waged by Russia on the Ukrainian people to repress them, to crush them, to harm them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIP: What more do you know about this, David?

SANGER: Well, you heard brief mention of this list in Mr. Blinken's speech at the U.N. And then over the weekend, what we heard was that intelligence officials had picked up evidence of a pretty extensive hitlist, almost anybody who has been in Zelensky's government, and we saw Mr. Zelensky here in unit for a few hours on Saturday. And he was, you know, trying to put on a brave face about all this.

The list would include academics, journalists, anybody who would be threatening to Russia's rule over an occupied Ukraine. And we've seen things like that before. So, this morning, we saw the administration send a letter to the U.N. organization that basically oversees such things. Human rights organization saying, we have evidence that this is Russia's plan. So, it's all part of the effort to try to expose Russia's plans at each step along the way, and hope that that throws Putin off course.

PHILLIP: It's a deadly serious situation unfolding. David Sanger, thank you for bringing us the latest. We'll come back to you, I'm sure more and more as this unfolds. Coming up next for us though. The closing arguments are underway in the federal hate crimes trial for the three men, who were convicted of murdering Ahmaud Arbery. We will take you live to Brunswick, Georgia next.

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[12:15:00]

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PHILLIP: Closing arguments are happening right now in the federal hate crimes trial of three white men. Travis McMichael, his father Gregory and William "Roddie" Bryan, all three were convicted of murder in state court for chasing down and killing black jogger Ahmaud Arbery in Georgia. And now, they're being tried in federal court where a jury will decide whether they killed Arbery because of the color of his skin. CNN's Nadia Romero is outside of the courthouse. Nadia, what is happening right now?

NADIA ROMERO, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Abby. I want to paint the picture for you of what's happening inside the courthouse behind me. So, in the jury, you have all those 12 jurors there that are listening, that are attentive right now at these closing arguments. You also have Lee McMichael, the mother of Travis McMichael, the wife of Gregory McMichael, she's inside the courtroom right now.

We also saw the mother and father of Ahmaud Arbery inside the courtroom as they have been over the past couple of days and really since the beginning, since jury selection. And they are an attentive captive audience, waiting to hear exactly what the prosecution and the defense laid out.

So, the defense - the prosecution, excuse me, started the day with about two hours for their closing arguments. And they want the jury to see that this is all about race. They say this was not a citizen's arrest that turned violent, but instead, all three of the defendants have racist histories, social media posts and text messages.

They had one-on-one conversations with the 20 witnesses. The prosecution had testified during this trial, who all say they had conversations that quickly turned into racist rants against black people, calling them in word, using other racial slurs and saying at times that they hoped all black people would just die. But the defense, they were starting - their closing arguments today as well and each defendant has his own attorney.

[12:20:00]

So, the defense attorney for a Travis McMichael says, listen, this isn't about race. Travis just wanted to find the person responsible for stealing things in their neighborhood. He had a gun stolen from his truck, Travis did. And there were other missing items throughout the neighborhood, and he believed that a Ahmaud Arbery was the one who was victimizing their neighborhood and that's why he was going after them.

That is where this line is drawn. They all agree that the defendants have been convicted of killing a Ahmaud Arbery. They all face life in prison. But if you ask Ahmaud Arbery's mother, she says this federal hate crimes trial, is about sending a message to everyone that being a racist and acting on that doing a hate crime, you will be held accountable. Abby?

PHILLIP: Very important day in a very important trial. A lot of people are watching. Nadia Romero at Brunswick, Georgia, thank you so much. And coming up next for us. The Democrats are sounding the alarm, warning of potential major losses in this year's midterms, if things don't change.

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[12:25:00]

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PHILLIP: Cool advisors are warning of a massive democratic loss in the midterms. If the party doesn't make some big changes. Obama's former senior advisor David Axelrod assesses President Biden is losing his edge in identifying with Americans everyday lives. He says, he has been speaking more in the voice of government officials than he has of Scranton Joe, and he needs to get back there.

With me now to share the reporting and insights is CNN's Melanie Zanona, The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim, and the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Tia Mitchell. This is not unusual that there would be, you know, some soul searching some handwringing, whatever you want to call it ahead of a midterm, in which the party in power is expected to lose.

But it seems to me that what's going on here is that what the Trump years masked for four or five years, these fissures of the Democratic Party, they're cracking open now. And there's a lot of conversation about what big picture? What direction is the party going?

TIA MITCHELL, WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT. THE ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION: Yes. And I think, you know, the Democratic Party wants to be a big tent. But there is disagreement about how far the party can go without losing people in the middle, and quite frankly, without losing, you know, white liberals. And so, when you think about things like policing reform, you think about things like being an anti- racist, or addressing America's legacy of racism. There's a lot of opinion as to what's acceptable, and what's "too far too woke." And that's what they're grappling with.

You know, I think Democrats would probably say, that's better than what the Republican Party is grappling with and what the fissures are on that side. But it's a real disagreement that they have to continue to work through.

PHILLIP: That I think is 100 percent correct. On a lot of the arguments that are happening, especially among, you know, the party, the people who are the most active in the party, but there's also another warning coming from Stan Greenberg a democratic pollster, who is basically saying, we have to figure out how to win. He tells Maureen Dowd.

Maureen Dowd writes in her column, she says Greenberg said, he's tired of trying to warn Democrats, that they're driving people away, fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including black and Hispanic ones, he told me, if they don't listen this time, we are going to end up with fascism, dammit. So, I mean, at the end of the day, he's not talking about, are you too woke? He's just saying, are we speaking to everyone who is available to us. And if we don't, we could just end up losing everything.

MELANIE ZANONA, CNN CAPITOL HILL REPORTER: And I think one of the lessons from the recall in San Francisco with the school board, a lot of people interpreted that as an outright rejection of woke racial politics but that's not the full story. Parents, their tolerance for those political policies were wearing out because their basic needs of their children were not being met.

And had things been going the right way, who knows what the outcome would have been right. So, I think if there is a lesson to be learned out of that, it's like Democrats first and foremost, need to be addressing the concerns of voters and education, inflation, all of those priorities at the top of the list.

PHILLIP: And to that point, listen to the San Francisco Mayor London Breed, on that very issue about meeting people's basic needs in terms of schooling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAYOR LONDON BREED, (D) SAN FRANCISCO: But we failed our children, parents were upset, the city as a whole was upset. And the decision to recall school board members was a result of that. In San Francisco, for some time now, our private schools were open even when our public schools couldn't get it together. This is not a Democratic Republican issue. This is a issue about the education of our children.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIP: So, you can have the debate on the grounds that the Republicans want to have it. It's about critical race theory. It's about renaming the schools. But I think what she's talking about is just open the schools, that that Democrats and Republicans are with you on that. So, just do that part first.

SEUNG MIN KIM, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER. THE WASHINGTON POST: Right. And I don't think there's a parent in America that doesn't want their children, especially the children who are vaccinated and are protected from this virus, to be able to resume a sense of normalcy, to be able to go back to work. And I know there's frustration, especially in the administration that, you know, most of the schools did open up under Joe Biden.

Yet, it is the Democratic Party that is not getting the credit because of these races, like the San Francisco recall election, like the Virginia gubernatorial race, where somehow the Republicans have been able to turn the issue of education, traditionally Democratic priority, because sort of over and take the advantage on that.

So, as much as the Democrats can promote what they have done, which is getting the vast majority of schools open under the Biden administration and trying to resume the sense of normalcy could help considerably. But again, they're working with traditionally difficult headwinds of a midterm year.