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Inside Politics

This Week: Harris & Trump To Fan Out Across Battlegrounds; Post Debate, Trump Doubles Down On Baseless Claims. Under Pressure, Republicans Split on How to Handle IVF; Republicans Push to Neutralize Omaha's "Blue Dot" District; Interview with Senator Joe Manchin (I-MT) and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT). Aired 8-9a ET

Aired September 15, 2024 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: -- on the Vikings.

[08:00:01]

Here are some of the other early matchups. You got the Jets and the Titans. Aaron Rodgers never started zero and two in his career. You got the Ravens also looking to get their first win taking on the Raiders. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys host the Saints. Tom Brady on the call for that one, guys, did not get rave reviews in his first game in the broadcast booth, but he said he realizes it and he knows he needs to do a little better.

ISABEL ROSALES, CNN ANCHOR: Always exciting. Andy Scholes, thank you.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: You got to get the reps.

SCHOLES: Reps, reps.

BLACKWELL: You got to get the reps. It'll come with that.

Hey, thank you so much for sharing your morning with us.

INSIDE POLITICS WITH MANU RAJU starts right now.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(MUSIC)

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST (voice-over): Ground game. Post-debate, Harris targets deep red territory.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Pennsylvania today, I ask you, are you ready to make your voices heard?

RAJU: While Trump digs in.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Springfield was this beautiful town, and now, they're going through hell. RAJU: CNN's political director joins us at the magic wall. Why one

city could tip the balance.

And abortion politics.

HARRIS: The government should not be telling her what to do with her body.

RAJU: New reporting on an issue roiling the GOP and the surprising message from Republicans.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I believe the president is functionally pro- choice. President Trump is.

RAJU: Plus, in their endorsement era, on a big week where one on one with Senators Romney and Manchin.

Harris, would you vote for Harris?

On who they may back this November.

INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RAJU (on camera): Good morning. Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.

Election Day will be here just before you know it, in just 51 days. And after last week's presidential debate, the two sides now are recalibrating their strategies and preparing for an absolute slugfest across the airwaves and in key battleground states. But in a race that could be historically close, what decisions will the campaigns make now in order to tilt the outcome of a potential November cliffhanger.

Now, Harris spent the past week campaigning in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, targeting both redder spots and seeking to shore up key blocs of voters. Former President Trump was in Arizona and Nevada seeking to rile up his base, even doubling down on those baseless conspiracy theories about Haitian migrants eating pets in Ohio.

Now, a look at the week ahead shows the frenetic pace on the campaign trail. But here's a big question that still looms did the debate from last week move the needle at all? It's still too early to assess, but brand new polling from ABC News this morning shows Harris is leading by six points, with likely voters five points with all U.S. adults. The numbers among likely voters is unchanged from ABC's pre-debate poll, but Harris is still calling herself the underdog.

And last night, she spoke at an event for the Congressional Black Caucus here in D.C.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: We actually have a plan for health care, not just concepts of a plan.

Our vision is under profound threat. While we moved and fight to move our nation forward toward a brighter future, Donald Trump and his extremist allies intend to take our nation backward.

But we are not going back.

We have some hard work ahead of us, but I know we like hard work. Hard work is good work. Hard work is joyful work.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: A lot to unpack this morning with a very, very good panel of reporters and analysts to break it all down.

CNN's David Chalian, Leigh Ann Caldwell from "The Washington Post", "Semafor's" David Weigel, and Jasmine Wright with "NOTUS".

Good morning to you all.

DAVID WEIGEL, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, SEMAFOR: Good morning.

RAJU: Thanks for being here.

So it's interesting. New poll, we're getting a couple of sense -- a sense of where this race is post-debate. This ABC News poll, the second really that we've seen a national poll about where this is. It suggests this race has not changed at all, despite the view among many people. Quite the view of some of the snapshot polling in the aftermath that Harris won the debate.

But the race hasn't changed.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yeah. And the view of the people in this new ABC News poll as well, Harris the clear winner of the debate when they were asked about it. You know, as we've been saying, winning a debate and winning an election, not necessarily the same thing, though, if you're Harris, likely voters 52 to 46, you're not unhappy with those numbers even though they haven't changed pre- debate or post-debate. Those are numbers you'd like to see.

As you noted, this is a national poll. This is a battle for 270 electoral votes. And so, I think it's going to take a little more time for us to see what's going on in the polling inside these battleground states, post-debate.

I don't think we've really gotten a sense of that yet.

[08:05:00]

But her clear victory in the debate, I don't think is really in question other than for Donald Trump, of course.

RAJU: But he says everyone says he won, even all the polls, even though all the polls suggest the opposite. CHALIAN: So I don't think -- I don't think that's really in question

here. I do think and this is evidence of the race, the dynamic of the race, the overall trajectory and tenor of the race, the shape of it, the scope of it, largely unchanged, pre-debate, post-debate. And I think we'll continue to look in future polling to see if that holds.

RAJU: So where does this now go in terms of how the campaigns will move ahead here? Post debate, Trump says there's not going to be another debate, and perhaps he wants to make the last debate, this past week's debate a distant memory as voters vote in November.

But this is really going to translate into a warfare at campaign rallies, but also across the airwaves. So just look at the amount of money being spent for future ad reservations through Election Day. $77 million in that big prize of Pennsylvania Democrats are spending, compared to 60 million for Republicans.

And it goes all the way down to the stunning amount of money. But what does that say about where this race is right now? Where Trump and in a large part wants, wants to focus on a paid media campaign attack ad strategy against Harris?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, WASHINGTON POST EARLY BRIEF CO-AUTHOR: Yeah. So the polls, I should say the polls haven't changed pre-debate post- debate. That's right. But the polls have changed so much since two months ago with Biden in the race. So, I mean, this is no one would have thought two months ago that this is where the race was going to be, that Harris --

RAJU: It feels like a year ago.

CALDWELL: It does feel like a year ago, but that change has also led to an enormous amount of fundraising and an enormous amount of money that the Harris campaign is able to spend, which is why you're seeing those numbers where Democrats are outspending Republicans in so many of these states and able to go on the airwaves with this.

You know, I was talking to Trump's campaign manager last week ago, Chris LaCivita, and he said, look, we are going to be outspent, we think, but we are going to have enough money to paint Kamala Harris as the radical liberal she is.

So that is still their strategy. And that seems to be the most effective strategy that Trump has against her is by, as we saw in this ABC poll, where people some, I forget the percentage. I think 47 percent thought that she was too liberal. And that is the campaign on the airwaves that the Trump is going to.

CHALIAN: But I just want to say that highlights the missed opportunity for Trump in this debate. What you're saying, well, Chris LaCivita is doing and says he wants to do with the paid media, when you have 67 million people tuning in and your candidate is there to amplify that message that is on paid media and fails to do so, it's an extraordinary, extraordinary, missed opportunity.

He did not successfully paint her that way. And so now that's at odds with what he presented with what people see in their living room, rather than in conjunction with and that's that -- that is why when I say the polls haven't moved, don't discount that the debate, the debate was consequential and important, even if we don't see movement in the polls. Kamala Harris got in front of 67 million people who still have questions about her and answered them for the large part in a positive fashion for voters, as we've seen.

So there's value to it and missed opportunity for Trump. It just may not change --

CALDWELL: The long standing tension of like what the candidate does versus what the campaign team wants the candidate to do. The story of the Trump years, if you will.

And speaking of what the campaign was about, the ads attack across the area, Julian was talking about what people are seeing in their living rooms. Just get a taste of what is being blanketed across the airwaves and the messages that the campaigns hope will sink in with voters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: It's about two very different visions for our nation, one focused on the future and the other focused on the past.

When the middle class is strong, America is strong.

AD ANNOUNCER: Another day under Bidenomics, morning coffee costs 65 percent more, gas for getting to work costs doubled.

HARRIS: Bidenomics is working and we are very proud of Bidenomics.

AD ANNOUNCER: Pleasant dreams.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: And -- but Trump didn't even said Bidenomics in the debate. Maybe, maybe I maybe I'm forgetting. But I don't recall him actually saying that.

But that's what they hope that voters will ultimately vote on that.

WEIGEL: That, and a lot of crime and immigration messaging also not effectively used against the vice president in the debate. If you spend ten minutes watching TV in a swing state, you see the mug shots, you see horror stories of crime, of migrants crossing the border, things that Trump did not talk that much about. He's doing on the trail, sort of reverse of 2016, fewer events than he did in '16, comparable to 2020. More policy announcements from the campaign stage that are not echoed in the ads.

They're doing this, this, this two track campaign where Trump will come out with an idea. They'll dare Harris to match it like paying for IVF or no taxes on tips. The advertising is much more crime focused. It's much more negative.

[08:10:00] And yes, it doesn't mesh very well with what happened in the debates. So this is day four. I think of a strategy to retell and reboot what he did not do on stage.

RAJU: And just where Harris is, what she is up to. She's been going to a lot of more. Some of the redder areas in these swing states, hoping to cut into Trump's lead. She did that in both Pennsylvania and also North Carolina. That's been part of the strategy here all along.

And how does she deal with what are some of her vulnerabilities? Are according to the polls, there is a gender gap that and the women's side favors Harris significantly, 50 to 37. She is beating -- leading Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll post-debate. But the issue with men and male voters, there's a gap there, too.

So, you cover the Harris campaign, Jasmine, what are you hearing about how they plan to cut into that Trump lead there?

JASMINE WRIGHT, REPORTER, NOTUS: Well, I think they recognize that there's a deficit with Harris, with men, with rural voters, particularly with white rural voters. And that's why you're going to see her really camped out in Pennsylvania. I was actually thinking this morning how her stays in Pennsylvania have reminded me of 2019 when she said, I'm moving to F-ing Iowa, right? She's going to be there constantly.

I was with her in North Carolina where she talked about the economy, but she even ratcheted that up in Pennsylvania, where she unveiled her policy to lessen the academic requirements for federal workers. And so that's going to be what she talks about, because they recognize, even though polls, even though the one today was out, "Financial Times" saying that voters thought of her more favorably on the economy, they recognize that she is losing to Trump when it comes to Americans and how -- or whether or not they trust or who they trust more on the economy.

And so that's what she's going to be talking to, really affecting or trying to show that she can be a change agent when it comes to the economy, to those Pennsylvania voters. I think that that's where she's going to be in Pennsylvania, in North Carolina, those redder states, trying to at least ratchet up the numbers. But obviously, I think that they recognize, unlike North Carolina, that Pennsylvania is a must win. And that is why you're going to see her.

RAJU: Very much so and we'll be digging into that a little bit later on the show as well.

All right. Next, Trump's claims about migrants putting his party in an awkward spot. I caught up with some Republicans who are struggling with just how to respond, or some who have decided to stay quiet altogether.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: The former president would not say if --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:16:42]

RAJU: Donald Trump may have invited widespread ridicule by saying it at last week's debate that Haitian migrants were eating people's pets in Springfield, Ohio. But that has not stopped the former president from invoking the baseless internet rumor yet again. On the trail in Arizona and Nevada, Trump continued to dig in on the Haitian migrant conspiracy theory and the long debunked falsehood that widespread voter fraud cost him the 2020 election.

And even though such rhetoric gives many Republicans heartburn, Trump -- well, he clearly does not see it the same way. He took it even further during a rally in Las Vegas on Friday night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats.

I'm angry about illegal Haitian migrants taking over Springfield, Ohio.

I'm angry about Venezuelan gangs taking over Aurora, Colorado.

The Venezuelans have big AK-47 supremes.

We are going to liberate parts of our country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: So, of course, there's not much truth to these -- some of these comments are not illegal. Haitian migrants, in fact, are here legally in Springfield, Ohio, and there's really no evidence at all to suggest that they're eating pets. But nevertheless, just on the issue of how he handles immigration, Trump is leading Harris in these battleground states, according to a recent CNN-SSRS poll on this issue.

But as Dan Balz reported, this morning, Trump can't expect accept his poor debate. So he spiraled into conspiracy theories. As "The Washington Post" headlined, why is Trump continuing to dig in? Is it simply because he sees immigration as this has been his calling card since he got into the presidential race so truth be damned?

WEIGEL: Well, it's Trump and it's Vance, and it is -- it is Elon Musk's -- Elon Musk's X, which boosted this. Musk himself was saying that he heard, that he's heard online these rumors.

There's a there's actually a policy part of this. Remember at the RNC, one of the signs of one of the nights was mass deportation now, Donald Trump 2024. We refer to people in Springfield as he did illegal Haitian migrants. He could become president, take away protective status and do a mass deportation in Springfield, in Charleroi, in Pennsylvania and other towns he's been talking about. Part of this is saying, envision me as president. If you do not like

immigrants in your community, I have a plan to get rid of them.

And that is what he said in 2016 when a lot of people said, well, he's not really going to act on it. I don't believe him very much. The text and the subtext of what Trump is saying, this time is elect me and there will be fewer migrants.

This is -- a meme that his campaign has shared that show gang members and say, meet your new neighbors, your new building managers.

This is not been a subtle part of the campaign. It's being boosted. It's the sort of messaging that a campaign would not have dared ten years ago. They would have thought it backfired.

RAJU: And there's some real life consequences, right? The city hall in Springfield was forced to close to a bomb threat on Thursday. Two elementary schools are evacuated, evacuated Friday in Springfield because of these -- some of these concerns here.

And Trump was asked about the bomb threat, and just yesterday that happened in Springfield, Ohio, and whether he had any words about that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Do you denounce the bomb threats in Springfield, Ohio?

TRUMP: I don't know what happened with the bomb threats.

[08:20:01]

I know that it's been taken over by illegal migrants, and that's a terrible thing that happens. Springfield was this beautiful town, and now they're going through hell.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: So he was actually asked on Friday at the press conference, too, about the bomb threats. And so he said yesterday, I don't know what happened with the bomb threats.

WRIGHT: Yeah. I mean, one, I would love to know if he's actually ever been to Springfield, Ohio. But two, I think that this is a real way for him to reclaim the national spotlight, the media spotlight.

One thing that we've seen over the last ten months is that he really dominated when it came to headlines in comparison to Biden, then when the vice president topped the ticket that flipped, it was Harris momentum. It was Harris grabbing the headlines, and it was him really trying to claw that back.

And so now, after the debate, when he's had kind of an unsuccessful debate, this is where he's really doubling down on this migrant issue, when they're not illegal migrants, they're legal migrants in this in the city of Springfield, Ohio. And so I think this is a way for Trump to reclaim the national

spotlight. But I also think it is red meat for his base. It is a way for him to stoke this anti-migrant sentiment that his campaign has really fueled or been fueled on for the last ten or so months.

And so this is another way to double down for him to show his base that he is serious about this issue and that, like Dave said, that he could be a president that would actually act on these issues.

RAJU: I mean, I remember him saying, the caravans are coming, the migrant caravans are coming. And this is a common Trump refrain.

CHALIAN: And, you know, the immigration line from the moment he came down the escalator nine years ago, obviously was part of his successful effort in 2016. The line and these to your point, they've been used in every election since. Donald Trump has not been successful in '18 or '20 or '22. Caravans being an example of one of those.

I do think if you just look, we've got seven weeks left. And so, if you are the Trump campaign, you just lost a week now to not just a bad debate performance, but then this -- your week became about, you know, spreading this rumor and conspiracy and not about the economy or fighting immigration.

I mean, he did turn it to deportation at one point. One of the things he said. But for the most part, he's just swimming in this story.

That can't be when you look at the precious commodity of time, how they want to spend one of the final seven weeks of the campaign.

RAJU: Yeah, and I was spent the last week asking a lot of Republicans about exactly what you're talking about. Should Trump be talking about Haitian migrants and a story that not so true?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: But he is accusing them of eating pets. Should he be doing that?

SEN. RICK SCOTT (R-FL): Well, I don't know what happened in Springfield. I can just tell you, my experience with Haitians in Florida has been very positive.

REP. MIKE LAWLER (R-NY): If the election is focused on the substance of policy and the seriousness that it deserves, given what we're facing as a country, then you know, great. But instead we're talking about dogs and cats and bull (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

RAJU: Is he a role model, Trump?

REP. DON BACON (R-NE): Well, I've disagreed with him on some of the things he's done. And but that's. We have the choice that we have.

RAJU: It's not a yes. BACON: Yeah. Well, I've critiqued him at times on this. And but -- in

the end, I'm going to vote for the guy who's going to secure our border, keep inflation low and keep our keep our nation more secure.

(END IVDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Your reaction?

CALDWELL: Well, all three of those people that you highlighted are also up for reelection this year.

RAJU: Tough races.

CALDWELL: Especially Don Bacon in tough races. Mike Lawler as well up in New York.

RAJU: Less tough with Rick Scott, but it could be.

CALDWELL: Yeah, I mean you know there's abortion on the ballot. And you know we'll see how that goes.

But it was notable how in Florida, he praised Haitians because that is not a very good electoral decision for him to back to slam Haitians in the state of Florida. But this is once again putting Republicans in a very tough position to have to defend the head of their party, the Republican nominee.

And like we all said, they have tough races and they have to face voters, too. Don Bacon is in a swing district where there's also one Electoral College vote in the Omaha area that Trump or Kamala Harris needs to win.

And so, you know, Manu, we've lived this for eight years now, going to Capitol Hill and talking to these Republicans who don't agree with Trump and his rhetoric, but they can't separate themselves. They don't have the courage to separate themselves from him.

RAJU: Yeah. That's right.

And as Mike Lawler said, he's speaking to a lot of Republicans when he says if the election focused on substance of policy in the seriousness that it deserves, then they win.

But we'll see if that's what the election shows --

(CROSSTALK)

CHALIAN: Stopwatch on the pregnant pause that Don Bacon --

RAJU: Yes, exactly. It took a while. It took a while. There's a full pause.

WRIGHT: It will be hard to see.

RAJU: Yes.

All right. Coming up, how some Republicans are offering a much different message about how they view abortion, including this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am pro-choice. I believe the president is functionally pro-choice, President Trump is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:25:27]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I have been a leader on IVF, which is fertilization, the IVF -- I have been a leader.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: It's been two years since the Dobbs decision and Republicans are still struggling to find their consensus on their position on abortion and now guaranteed access to fertility treatments like IVF have become a centerpiece of Democratic attack ads over reproductive rights, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer set to bring up an IVF bill this week in order to let Republicans block it.

New this morning, anxiety in the House GOP ranks and a push by endangered Republicans to deflect such attacks.

CNN's Annie Grayer joins us now to unpack her new reporting about a push for a House vote.

So, Annie, where does Speaker Mike Johnson stand in all this?

ANNIE GRAYER, CNN CAPITOL HILL REPORTER: Well, that's the big question, Manu. When I talk to House Republicans who made this push to Speaker Johnson directly, they say that for the most part the Speaker is placating them. You know, hearing them out but not giving a firm answer.

And in one case, a lawmaker told me that Speaker Johnson specifically said no, this vote is not going to happen.

Now, there are a lot of factors at play here. What you and I have talked about and covered extensively.

The first is that there are only -- the House is only in session for two more weeks before government funding runs out and that is Johnson's main focus. It's been a mess so far.

On top of that, he's running -- he's ruling a very narrow and divided majority. So even though there is this public support for IVF, there aren't a lot of members who are willing to stand up and publicly put their name behind it.

But the moderate Republicans who I spoke to said that this would really be helpful to them in their competitive races and to take a public stand as Democrats continue to use this issue to try and drive a wedge on IVF and just reproductive health care in general.

RAJU: (INAUDIBLE) just another divide that Mike Johnson will have to navigate in this narrowly divided House.

Annie Grayer, great reporting. Thank you so much for bringing it to us this morning.

My panel is back to dissect this. It's so interesting because Trump knows this is a potent attack too, right? He come out -- came out and said were going to pay for all IVF treatments, the government will. And if the insurance companies don't mandate it.

But that doesn't fly with a lot of Republicans. But he knows full well, this is a problem for him as do lot of these House Republicans as well.

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, EARLY BRIEF CO-AUTHOR, WASHINGTON POST: Oh, absolutely. I mean, there has been an IVF protection bill sitting in the house by the authored by Democrats since the Alabama court came down and they haven't voted on it yet.

But I will say that when the Alabama Supreme Court came down with that decision that once again brought IVF, especially into the conversation, talking to Republicans after that they were all over the place.

A lot of them didn't really know what IVF was, they could not defend it. They tried to defend it.

And so this is just one -- the other thing alongside abortion the Republican Party as far as reproductive rights is concerned, has struggled to find an adequate message, a message that they can all agree on and how to address this issue that is -- that is impacting and working among voters.

RAJU: What is so interesting as you're talking -- we talked about abortion is part of this debate over reproductive rights and how the campaign is shaping up, how about the Republicans in these swing districts and blue districts messaging how they want voters to see their position and some of them are sounding a lot like Democrats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MATT GUNDERSON PRO-CHOICE ON ABORTION: On a woman's right to choose, I'm pro-choice. I believe abortion should be safe, legal, and rare. I don't want politicians dictating health care for my daughters.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I trust women. I cherish new life and I reject the extremes on abortion. I'm against a federal ban. Employ common sense approach.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I believe health decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, not Washington.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Democrat or Republican. I mean, you look at the ad, you might not know. Those are all Republicans in districts that Joe Biden carried.

The first one candidate who is running against an incumbent Democrat in a district in California that Biden won by 11.4 percent. Effective strategy?

DAVID WEIGEL, SEMAFOR NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: And some of it might be sincere. There are people who did not think about this issue when they got into politics. Mike Lawler is another person who was quoted in the show has one of these adds too.

I think there has been a movement by some people who are still in the side of the Republican coalition saying no, I'm not -- I'm not pro- life on every single issue. They had moved.

On Trump it does seem more cynical. This is one -- the IVF guarantee that he's talked about -- one of many proposals Trump has put out without costing, without explaining how he's going to pay for it, without going through any of the moral questions (INAUDIBLE).

One, I think Cato Institute said this would cause $7 billion even if no one else joins IVF, think of the religious implications. People -- people who think in embryo destruction violates their faith would be asked to pay for someone to do your embryo destruction.

Republicans don't take that very seriously. They still are not defending the actual policies Trump is rolling out. They want these broader strokes and they want this promise that not much is going to change if Trump this president.

[08:34:50]

WEIGEL: That -- that is -- that is not how Trump is running. He's making more promises for them to either dodge which seems to be the most popular -- the most popular response. Or for them to wrestle with.

While Democrats are very consistent. Keep it legal. We can bring back Roe. Don't mess with it. It's just the one simple issue they have.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: To say nothing of -- I mean, I'm old enough to remember when Republicans were against insurance company mandates, when they --

(CROSSTALKING)

CHALIAN: -- don't care but --

WEIGEL: Expanding Obamacare.

(CROSSTALKING)

CHALIAN: -- if I recall correctly. RAJU: it is remarkable and that just shows you when you talk to him about the specifics of what Trump is asking for, they are not so keen about that idea, about IVF paying for -- government paying for all IVF treatments.

But just on the Dobbs issue and how Republicans are dealing with their support or lack of support for abortion rights.

I caught up with one congressman from California, John Duarte, who is in a tough reelection battle in a Biden district -- that Biden carried back in 202. And I had asked him a few months ago about Dobbs -- the Dobbs decision.

And then I asked him about it just this past week.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Do you support the Dobbs decision?

REP. JOHN DUARTE (R-CA): Which is that?

RAJU: the Dobbs decision -- overturning Roe.

DUARTE: It doesn't matter. It's done. It's in the rearview mirror. I am pro-choice.

I believe the president is functionally pro-choice. President Trump is.

(INAUDIBLE)

DUARTE: No, he's pro-choice. He wants the states to make their policy themselves. He doesn't want to federalize abortion law, neither do I.

RAJU: He opposes abortion rights.

DUARTE: No, he doesn't. He said the states -- the states are moving towards abortion rights one-by-one. The Dobbs decision put it back to the states. I believe abortion belongs to the states.

RAJU: So you supported the Dobbs decision? But you're pro-choice.

DUARTE: I'm pro-choice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JASMINE WRITE, NOTUS 2024: I mean, is that pro-choice like the states choose whatever they want to do? Is that the definition?

I mean, I think that this is like really fascinating because at the end of the day, this is Kamala Harris' playground, right?

She is the candidate that sets the rules on abortion, sets the tone on it. In all of the Republicans basically have to kind of twist themselves to finding an amendable (ph) place. And we have seen time and time again that the Republicans haven't figured it out yet including Donald Trump, who I would say the Republican Party has tried to find the most moderation on the issue itself.

And the debate that Harris campaign said that her comments on abortion, their back-and-forth on it was really their highest moment. We've seen them cut ads on it. We've seen her in her speeches since then, talk about that exchange because they know how good it was for them, how much it cements that she is a leader on this issue.

And so everything that Republicans are doing is going to be in the wake of the fact that Democrats are really winning on this issue. That they know is a popular motivating issue for the entire electorate, not just Democrats.

RAJU: Instead of ballot referendum, I even --

(CROSSTALKING)

WRIGHT: Exactly.

RAJU: You look at -- you look at the map about there are lot of states that have -- ten states have abortion on the ballot in November, several of those are in key battleground Senate states like Montana for instance and (INAUDIBLE).

CHALIAN: And it's worth noting, Donald Trump is not paying a price for doing all of this muddying of the waters on his position on this, because the Evangelical base of the right-wing or the pro-life movement, yes, we hear leaders of organizations express dissatisfaction of him, but he's not paying a real political price for doing and leading some of these Republicans that you just talked to this place of just trying to muddy the water on this issue.

RAJU: Exactly. Can muddying the waters be a successful strategy? Maybe. We'll see.

All right. Up next, as they prepare to pack up their offices on Capitol Hill, who of these two retiring senators be back in November and which cities could be Harris' tipping point to 270? And why are Republicans so concerned?

CNN's political director David Chalian, who's sitting right next to me, will show us. Stick around.

[08:38:35]

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RAJU: In a race this tight, every vote matters and it really could come all down to one electoral college vote, specifically one vote in Nebraska. It's one of two states that distributes its electoral college votes based on congressional district rather than winner take all.

And with the blue-leaning district around Omaha likely to back Kamala Harris, Republicans have been pushing hard to switch up the system.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) RAJU: What do you say to people who say this is a power grab by the Republicans.

REP. MIKE FLOOD (R-NE): We would be changing to what 48 other states do in America.

RAJU: But to benefit Trump.

FLOOD: Well to benefit the people of Nebraska speaking with one voice.

REP. DON BACON (R-NE): If every state do it the way we did it I think that's the right way to go. I really don't like being one of the two sides.

RAJU: So should they change it before the election to make it look every other state.

BACON: If they had the votes, yes. But they don't have the votes.

RAJU: They don't have the votes.

BACON: I think they were a couple of votes shy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: indeed, Nebraska's Republican governor said on Friday he is still willing to call a special session to change the system, but he acknowledged that he does not have the votes.

So how does that one district play into the candidates' overall path to victory?

CNN's David Chalian is still here to break it all down with us.

So David, what is the likelihood that this all could come down in Nebraska?

CHALIAN: Well, it's not unthinkable, just given the way that the electoral votes are distributed, Manu.

If you look at the map of the battlegrounds now, we have seven real battleground toss-up states, right? And we've talked about this at length now.

You have the three that are in the upper Great Lakes Region, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin there -- those the three yellow states on the top there. And then you have those four Sun Belt states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.

If Kamala Harris and her campaign still believes the most direct path to the White House for her is through that upper tier of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

[08:44:48]

CHALIAN: If she were to make all of those blue which means keeping them in the Democratic column. Joe Biden won them all last time around. Hillary Clinton did not in 2016. And that's what sent Donald Trump to the White House.

If those top states went blue, she'd be at 269 votes. So she would need the electoral vote in Nebraska to get to 270. And she would not need then any of the Sun Belt states. So it could be that the electoral vote that puts her over the top of 270.

RAJU: Which explains why they have focused a lot of attention on that district.

We mentioned the Sun Belt. Harris, of course, is making a play for North Carolina. She was there -- the first place she went to in the aftermath of last week's debate.

This has been a tricky state for Democrats and what is the likelihood that they can flip it? And what do you know about that strategy in North Carolina.

CHALIAN: Listen, it was the state that Donald Trump won in 2020 by his narrowest margin, right? Democrats have not won it since Barack Obama pulled a victory there in 2008, a victory by the way, that he did not repeat in 2012. It is a tough state for Democrats.

Here's what the Harris campaign sees in that state. If you look at the electorate, as a -- as an overall share of the electorate, African- Americans sort of double their presence in the electorate in North Carolina, from what they are in Pennsylvania. That's it.

I mean, in 2020 23 percent of the electorate was African-American. So they see opportunity there. They see opportunity with a growing Latino vote there, with young voters in North Carolina. So pieces of the coalition that they think they can work and perhaps flip.

Here's why? The why is because it would be, pardon the pun, a trump card for her in many ways. It would be such an enormous roadblock. If She were to flip North Carolina I'm not so sure Pennsylvania is any longer a must-win for her.

If she -- you know, she picks up Michigan and Wisconsin, she gets North Carolina and something like Nevada, which has six electoral votes she'll be in the White House without Pennsylvania.

If one of those states where they just see it's not necessary for her to win the way others are necessarily, but it is necessary for her to block Trump.

RAJU: Yes.

CHALIAN: If she can do it, it would be a total block.

RAJU: A topic for another show is how the governors' race could play into that --

CHALIAN: Exactly.

RAJU: -- strategy as well.

Now, we talk about Trump's path to 270. I mean, how, what is his easiest path to 270 and how does it compare to what happened in 2020?

CHALIAN: Well, his easiest path to 270 also means he has to hold on to North Carolina. Like I said, he won it last time, his narrowest margin.

But this is what's amazing. If you look at the 2020 map, all Donald Trump has to do is win everything he won last time around and then just flip Pennsylvania and Georgia back to his column -- two states. That's it.

If he can flip those back and they are very competitive states, it's not unlikely, I mean it's not on thinkable that he can do it. He would be at 270 electoral votes and he would be heading towards his second term in the White House without Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

So that's his most direct path, which is why you are seeing a real increase in money and candidate involvement on the ground.

Trump visiting the state of North Carolina, visiting Pennsylvania where they're spending money. They see those two -- sorry, Georgia -- they see those two states as critical.

Again, it's why the Harris campaign is eyeing North Carolina because part of that is he has to hang on to that.

RAJU: Georgia is interesting too, because when Biden was in this race, he was totally underwater in Georgia. This is going to change for Harris but it's still perhaps more complicated than some of the other Sun Belt state.

CHALIAN: I mean listen, these states have not been reliably Democrat for years the way Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin have been, right. I mean, those have been -- other than 2016 -- in our lifetimes covering presidential politics, they've largely been on the Democratic side.

These are relatively new states. I mean, remember back in the Obama years when David Plouffe would point to Arizona and Georgia as states that are coming online for Democrats, right?

Well, Joe Biden flipped them, but that doesn't mean they're forever flipped. And so yes, these are going to be real competitive battleground. They're not reliably Democratic.

But she is in the hunt in the Sun Belt as well. Joe Biden was dependent on those upper tier states. Kamala Harris has expanded her paths here.

RAJU: It's so interesting. Wow, this is another reason there's so much unpredictability in this election.

David Chalian, thanks for breaking that all down for us. And coming up, I go one-on-one with Senators Romney and Manchin. What they said about whether they plan to vote for the vice president this fall.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Have you decided who you're going to vote for.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[08:49:13]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: He has long been a thorn on the side of the left and has so far stayed out of the presidential contest. But Senator Joe Manchin, the conservative Democrat turned Independent, now is signaling he's ready to get off the sidelines and that may be good news for Kamala Harris.

Now, when I caught up with Manchin this past week, he downplayed Harris' more liberal views and said he will soon talk to her after they quit playing phone tag.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: (INAUDIBLE) to pay. Do you think that -- are you any closer to endorsing Harris.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN (I-MT): I'm looking forward to conversation we're probably going to have. I think it'd be very important.

RAJU: Do you think she spelled out enough of her vision.

MANCHIN: I think she's moving in the right direction. Things I'm hearing that's sounding very good and I want to make sure that we get there. I think a very good conversation, we'll do that.

And we'll see what we're doing.

RAJU: But you could see yourself endorsing before the election.

MANCHIN: I could see that. We'll see what happens.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Now Manchin is not the only retiring Senate heavyweight who has been coy about who he plans to support in November. The other, Senator Mitt Romney, the GOP 2012 nominee, who has been very much on the outs with the base after voting to convict Trump in his two impeachment trials.

[08:54:47]

RAJU: Now, as Romney pushed back on Trump's unwillingness to say at the debate that he wanted Ukraine to win against Russia, he also pointedly refused to say if he'd back Harris in November. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITT ROMNEY (R-UT): The president surely had to say, of course, I want Ukraine to win. I want Ukraine to be successful. So it was a huge gap that I think caused a collective gasp from nations around the world.

RAJU: Have you decided who you're going to vote for.

ROMNEY: I've got nothing on that topic.

RAJU: What about Harris, is there any way you'll vote for her?

ROMNEY: I'm not going to be -- I'm sure not going to be voting for former President Trump. And I think that's been very clear. People know where I stand with

regards to that.

RAJU: But Harris, would you vote here?

ROMNEY: I don't have anything on that at this stage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: We'll see if Harris can close the deal.

That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY.

Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Dana's guests include the Republican vice-presidential nominee Senator J.D. Vance, as well as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

And before we go, I want to give a quick shout out to my dear friend and my right-hand man on Capitol Hill, CNN's senior congressional producer, Ted Barrett. This week the Radio and Television Correspondents Association honored Ted with the career achievement award for distinguished reporting on Congress.

Ted is relentless reporter, skilled questioner. With a keen eye for news. And also just an incredibly kind, humble, and hilarious colleague. No one is more deserving of this very high honor. From the entire INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY team, thank you, Ted and congratulations.

Thank you for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next week.

[08:56:24]

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