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Inside Politics
Candidates Ramp Up Ground Game As Race Enters Final Month; Harris & Trump Slug It Out For Working-Class Pennsylvanians. Montana's Dem Senator Fights To Keep Seat in Trump Country; The Differing Roles of Melania Trump and Doug Emhoff; Biblical Bids. Aired 8-9a ET
Aired October 06, 2024 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[08:00:33]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(MUSIC)
MANU RAJU, CNN HOST (voice-over): Thirty days. Donald Trump returns to Butler.
DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will fight, fight, fight.
RAJU: While Harris works the margin.
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is so good to be back in Wisconsin.
Good to be back in Michigan.
RAJU: And John King joins at the magic wall. Will anything shake up this incredibly tight race?
Plus, big sky brawl.
SEN. JON TESTER (D-MT): I want to talk about Montana. That's what this race is about.
RAJU: Will control of the Senate --
Mr. Sheehy. They're blocking our car.
Come down to men in Montana?
And spousal spotlight. Melania Trump makes way.
MELANIA TRUMP, FORMER FIRST LADY: What does my body, my choice really mean?
RAJU: Doug Emhoff works to make history.
INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now. (END VIDEOTAPE)
RAJU (on camera): Good morning and welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.
Just 30 days to go. So where does this unprecedented race stand and how will the candidates shore up their vulnerabilities? And is there anything that could give either Donald Trump or kamala Harris an edge since there is still no clear leader?
There are no more debates. The conventions are long over, and now it gets down to tactics and the extensive ground operations the parties have spent years building to target those small number of persuadable voters in the seven key swing states.
So how are the candidates spending these critical final days?
Last night, Donald Trump return to the site where he was nearly killed this summer, Butler, Pennsylvania, for a rally with the man -- of man who died at the scene, as well as the world's richest person, Elon Musk.
And Vice President Harris spent yesterday in hurricane-battered North Carolina. Of course, a pivotal state both candidates are desperately trying to win.
And today, Trump continues his efforts to undercut Harris's blue wall, stumping in Wisconsin, and that's where we find CNN's Steve Contorno.
And, Steve, last night was solemn at first, but then sort of turned into a typical Trump rally.
STEVE CONTORNO, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: That's right, Manu. An emotional return to Butler, Pennsylvania, for Donald Trump and his supporters. It included a moment of silence for the individual who is seated behind Donald Trump at that rally and lost his life from a gunshot wound.
Trump saying that he and his movement had emerged from the aftermath of that shooting, quote, stronger, prouder, more united, more determined and narrative victory. And then as you said, it was a pretty quick pivot to the dark rhetoric that we have seen from him. A lot of discussion about immigration. He also said that the -- his political opponents quote, maybe even tried to kill him.
He was aided in this effort by Elon Musk, the tech billionaire, who has been one of his most outspoken and influential supporters of late ever since the Butler shooting. Take a listen to what he had to say last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ELON MUSK, TECH BILLIONAIRE: President Trump must-win to preserve the Constitution. He must win to preserve democracy in America. Text people now, now, and then make sure they actually do vote. If they don't, this will be the last election, that's my prediction. Nothing's more important.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CONTORNO: Now, Elon Musk has set up super PAC that has spent tens of millions of dollars supporting Donald Trump's campaign, including here in Wisconsin. Speaking of which, this is Donald Trump's fourth time in the state in just nine days. And there's a good reason for that.
Take a look at this latest Marquette Law School poll, one of the best pollsters in the state, finds this race very, very close with a slight edge for Vice President Harris, 52 to 48 -- Manu.
RAJU: All right. Steve Contorno from Juneau, Wisconsin, thank you for that report.
And we have a lot to break down with an excellent panel this morning.
CNN's John King, Susan Glasser from "The New Yorker", Laura Barron- Lopez of "PBS NewsHour", and NPR's Michel Martin.
Good morning to you all. Thanks for joining me this morning. Really appreciate it.
John King is back.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Nice to be here. (INAUDIBLE)
RAJU: Yes, exactly. It's a lot different. You're back at home. It's great to have you here, John.
So 30 days out, Donald Trump decides to go back to the site where he was nearly killed. He brings the Elon Musk, who has been funding these efforts, go get out the vote efforts here.
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Fund -- Musk warns that this could be the last election if Donald Trump loses.
KING: Yes, to be polite, that's kind of rich, that the guy endorsing the guy who tried to steal the last election says this will be the last election, but that's the Trump playbook heading into this election. It's all designed to stoke his base.
If you listen to what Trump is saying, whether it's they're eating cats and dogs, whether it's I'm going to have mass deportations, whether they're the ones who want to steal your democracy, it tells you they're not really trying to win. They'd love to get them, but they're not trying to win the Nikki Haley voters in the Philadelphia suburbs. They are trying to gin up turnout of their base. That's the calculation that they have made.
And if you talk to Democratic pollsters or state Democratic chairman, including in those blue states and Congress -- Democratic congressman from those blue wall states, they're a little nervous about this. Democratic pollsters will tell you if you look at the likely
electorate now compared to just several weeks ago, it's tweaked up just a little bit in Trumps favor. Now, those polls, they can fluctuate. We have 30 days to go.
But in Washington, a lot of people say, why is he saying these things? Why does he keep lying? Why is he demeaning immigrants? That's what people in Washington say.
Out in the country, you see evidence that it's helping Trump rally his base.
RAJU: Yeah, and you're just actually out in Pennsylvania talking to allow those voters, of course, this is Pennsylvania being one of the key, probably perhaps the biggest prize here, just to look on your screen, $12.5 million Republicans have spent on TV ad in just this past week and TV ads, it's more a little bit more than Democrats most -- more than any other swing states.
So, Michel, when you are on the ground in Western PA this past week, what are you hearing from voters?
MICHEL MARTIN, NPR "MORNING EDITION" HOST: Well, this is -- it's exactly as John said, this isn't really about persuading people who, on policy. This is about, you know, sort of Trump's deep hold on the culture. You know, anecdotes are always dangerous, but I'll just tell you one.
One of the reasons we went to Western PA is that one of the counties there is that the swingingest of the swinging, you know, counties, and by that, I mean that they've correctly predicted every presidential outcome except for one since World War II.
So we are working through a park. We're on our way to an event at a university and there's a guy in the park with a sign -- handwritten sign saying they're eating your pets. It has absolutely nothing to do with this community. I see very few people there who seem to not have been born there.
But the fact that somebody who is so sort of seem to be un-housed, didn't really -- clearly didn't have a job. He's out here sort of in the middle of day, has handwritten a sign. He had to go to get the poster board. Go get this, go get the marker. It just shows you that the deep hold that Donald Trump has on the culture.
It's not about policy. It's about who you are and what you believe or what you want to believe, and that is the part that's -- on the other hand, I tell you if you if you look at signs as a permission slip as of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would say, you know, your yard signs are up permission. It looked pretty even. It looked pretty even.
And so I think that is still is competitive to the polls would indicate that it is.
RAJU: Yeah. I just about something that Trump was saying last several days and including yesterday at the Butler rally talking about what the federal response to what has happened in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
Of course, it's couple of key swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, being part of that Trump trying to suggest that this is Harris's fault about how the response has gone.
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TRUMP: This has been the worst hurricane response by a president and vice president since Katrina. The federal government is doing a very bad job there offering them $750 to people whose homes have been washed away. And yet we send tens of billions of dollars to foreign countries that most people have never heard.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Of course, there's a lot that's not true with a lot of what Donald Trump is saying. The Charlotte editorial, "The Charlotte Observer" editorial board out with this editorial saying: Shame on Donald Trump for worsening North Carolina's Helene tragedy with political lies.
So, North Carolina, of course, though, was hit hard by this. Donald Trump sees an opportunity typically, and disaster in the aftermath of disasters, people come together. The parties typically come together. This time, Trump tries to see -- trying to take a political vantage even though he's -- the federal response is being praised on the ground.
LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah, political advantage where he's lying about the federal response, whether it's at $750 lie, are also earlier he had said that they were trying to take money from the disaster relief to then go to migrants, and to handle migrant.
So, again, all of this election for Donald Trump has been about immigration and he's really tried to seize on that to the biggest fears of his base. But that was also a lie. And what's interesting is that "Washington Post" did a fact check about that, saying that actually it was Donald Trump in 2019 who took money from a disaster relief pot and put it towards detention for migrants.
So lying about the fact that the Biden administration is doing that this time around, I'm not sure that it's necessarily going to impact swing voters in a state like North Carolina. His lies about this, but what it will do is it'll gin up more disinformation, more belief in the electorate that the election could potentially be rigged in a state like North Carolina and election officials there are already dealing with a lot of threats.
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So it's something that they're going to be trying to prepare for is are heading into early voting and then post-election.
SUSAN GLASSER, STAFF WRITER, THE NEW YORKER: You know, I think that you see here once again, Donald Trump has won playbook, and to John's point, you know, this is, we could have been having a version of this conversation in 2016 and in 2020. Donald Trump does not believe in the concept of the people in the middle and the undecided swing voter.
He is a base politician. He's always appealing to his base when he was the president of the country, he believed there was blue America and red America, and that he was the president for red America. He actually said that out loud during the 2020 pandemic that we've all forgotten actually happened.
And I think that it's really notable because every indication is that we are hurdling right down the road in 30 days towards another of these extremely close elections. And that's where I feel like all the alarms should be blinking red because if its going to be this close, what Trump is doing right now, in addition to focusing on immigration is focusing on telling his people any outcome in which I do not win is unacceptable. He has said that to us.
And again, are we going to be the chumps who don't listen and aren't prepared for this scenario of a too close election?
RAJU: And, John, you spent so much time on the ground trying to get a sense what voters are actually thinking here.
Who are these undecided voters that look at the poll here on the Marist poll suggesting about how many people have not made up their mind yet, 4 percent, 14 -- 10 percent say they could still change their mind. And now that's a national poll. The state-level, perhaps, it's a little different state by state, but who are these people who still have not -- who are still persuadable.
KING: I would focus on the 10 percent who could still change through your mind. A lot of those are your moderates, are your Nikki Haley voters or people who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, who don't like the toll, the cost of living. I know we're going to talk more about that. And who don't like him, who maybe think Harris is little left of Biden. They voted for Biden.
They voted for Trump than they voted for Biden because they thought he was a centrist and I can do that. I don't I usually vote for Democrats, but I can do this.
Trump is running these ads, including if you're watching foot cultural ball yesterday, the baseball playoffs yesterday, about her support for surgery for transgender Americans. Donald Trump is for you. She's for them. That's what Donald Trump is trying to do.
He's trying to make her different. He's trying to disqualify -- is trying to make her way more liberal but then Joe Biden. Those voters, there are key. They don't want Donald Trump back, but they have this nostalgic memory to Susan's point of the pre-COVID Trump economy.
They've been whacked in the face by inflation. Other cost of living issues, and they don't know their vice president. And so, there are available to her, but 30 days is both a long time and a blip.
RAJU: And speaking if they don't know the vice president, she's clearly recognizes that one of her biggest vulnerabilities right now is that you have some voters on the ground saying, I still don't know what she would do as president.
She has a week -- this events coming up this week about just a number of have media appearances. She's going on the popular podcast "Call Her Daddy", that actually that airs today. She's doing "60 Minutes" interview as well. She's going on "The View", "The Howard Stern Show", "The Late Show" with Colbert, some more friendly interviews, but maybe some hostile ones as well.
But clearly, there's a recognition that she needs to at least do something to get those persuadable voters that John's talking about.
BARRON-LOPEZ: That's right. She's exposing herself more.
The "Call Her Daddy" is interesting because of the fact that that is interview that is going to be heavily focused on speaking to women directly. And I was just in Arizona this week and there, I spoke to a two-time Trump voter who said that abortion is one of her biggest issue. She plans on voting in support of the abortion amendment to protect access there. And she says that she is gettable for Harris. She's not totally won over yet because to your point she wants to hear a bit more about the economy. She wants to hear a bit more about how Harris will compromise with Republicans because she's still -- this would be the first time this voter has ever voted for a Democrat.
And that's the thing. When you're talking to some of these moderate Republicans, they talk a lot about how difficult it is that for the first time in their life, they may be voting for a Democrat, but that they feel as though Donald Trump is pushing them more and more towards --
MARTIN: Do you think the validators like Liz Cheney make a difference with a voter like that?
BARRON-LOPEZ: I think that they do --
MARTIN: Cheney is appearing with her.
BARRON-LOPEZ: Yeah.
MARTIN: Appearing with her in Wisconsin, a person who has her own admission, never voted for a Democrat in her life.
BARRON-LOPEZ: And I think they do because they mentioned those Republican figures and how they understand how conservative Liz Cheney is, and they themselves are extremely --
GLASSER: Well, by the way, I think that's what makes it so remarkable that Cheney is really -- she's not the only voice out there. There's a lot of Republicans, but the truth is, many prominent Republicans who we know have great distaste for Donald Trump.
You know, George W. Bush, he's not supporting Donald Trump, but he's not out there. And I do think that this is this issue that could matter, which is that they are validators for a segment of the electorate. RAJU: So such a close race, margins of those things could matter.
We'll see. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Thirty days. That's it. It's going to be here in a blink of an eye.
[08:15:04]
All right. Coming up, how are the voters reacting to Harris's pitch on the economy? John King, who's sitting right here will be at the magic wall right over there to break down what issues could sway the race.
And before we go, "SNL" had a take on the VP debate.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm the knucklehead but I'm sure this guy has some -- some things he'd want back out of as well.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's right about that. That's an area where a lot of common ground.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Why are they friends? Why are they vibing?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
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RAJU: There aren't that many voters up for grabs this November. So who are they and where are they?
[08:20:01]
And what's on the top of their minds at this pivotal moment?
Well, CNN's John King is here at the magic wall where he usually is to show us what to watch. There it is back at home again.
So, okay. So we talk about the economy. So Kamala Harris, look at the poll -- well, she's trailing Trump on the economy despite data saying that the economy's doing pretty well.
So why are they not buying this message about the economy not being on an --
KING: So, let me take this in two parts.
Your economy today and your life -- cost of living over the last four, five, six years, right? A look at your economy today.
Harris has something to say, right? The Biden economy has created Biden-Harris economy created a lot of jobs. This is just the September jobs report. That was a surprisingly robust number, 254,000 jobs last month. That's a big number.
An already low unemployment rate drops even more. So the vice president can hit the road and say, hey, you're doing okay. This is an indicator I look at all the time. It's an economic
indicator. I look at it for politics. The university of Michigan consumer sentiment index. It's on the way up. This is August, 67.9 September. It's on the way up, so consumers are feeling better about the economy right now.
But look at this number. It was at 80.4 in September 2020. What happened in November 2020? An incumbent president, Donald Trump, was defeated.
So it's in the danger zone if you are an incumbent, that's the question for voters. Is Kamala Harris the incumbent president or can she separate herself from Joe Biden?
But look at this, the numbers today she can make a case today. The numbers are better. They're getting better, but just look at this -- I want to bring up this chart. It's a little complicated.
Do you see any green on this? This looks -- our new media team built this. It's fantastic. This looks at the cost of living over the last one five or six years.
This is housing prices. This is food prices. This is energy prices, right? Are wages keeping up or falling behind? All these increases.
You see any green on this map?
RAJU: I doubt it.
KING: You need a microscope because a couple of counties in Texas and a couple of counties in Virginia, those are the only counties in America were wages have outpaced the cost of living in the last six, eight years.
So you're looking at all this, right, across the country. What do you see? The darker it is, that's where places are way behind. The more behind you are.
Where do they include? They include Pennsylvania. Look at these counties, right? Bucks County. In Bucks County, from 2016 to 2024, the cost of living was 1.7 percent faster than wages.
So people in these communities last week's unemployment rate, it was great, right? That's Bucks County, Pennsylvania.
But what about the last six years of my life? Just come down here, where is it dark? In the Atlanta suburbs? That's where Kamala Harris has to run up the vote.
So in key places across America, I'll bring it out in, just show you the map one more time, the darker it is, the heart of the punch, if you will. The harder your wages are behind, what you're paying for your house, for your energy, for your food.
That's the climate she's running in. That's a really stiff headwind. RAJU: Again, another indication, vivid example about it matters how you feel. It doesn't matter necessarily what the data says is how are you feeling right now?
You also were in Michigan. You've interviewed younger voters in Michigan, some of them obviously were very concerned about the Biden administration's approach to Israel. Now that Harris is the nominee, they are more -- they're happy that she's the nominee, but it hasn't changed the calculus on the issue of Gaza, with those younger voters.
KING: It's better. The question is, is it good enough?
You mentioned Michigan. I'll show you. Come in Michigan, come up here, right in Wayne County. That's Detroit. You have Wayne State University.
You go to this campus, you'll see a lot of young Arab and Muslim students on this campus. You see a lot of other younger students who have joined their cause protesting the Biden/Harris administration.
Why not a ceasefire? Why not an arms embargo? You see it on campus.
Then you move right over here. Much bigger campus, Washtenaw County, that's home of Ann Arbor. That's the University of Michigan.
We were just back here for a third time in the last year. The volume is down. Support for Harris is higher than it was for Joe Biden back in last year, a year ago.
The question is, is it as high as it was for Joe Biden back in 2020 or Gretchen Whitmer in November of 2022. So that's one place you have to watch.
This in another place I know near and dear to you. And you come over here. It's the same thing, Dane County, Wisconsin.
There are all these key counties in the battleground states where the Democrats have to run it up, look at that number, look at that number. Joe Biden just barely won Wisconsin. Look at the number in Dane County. A lot of that is younger voters.
So it's better now for Harris because she has brought a lot of energy. It wasn't just Gaza for younger voters and Biden, it was also his age in a disconnect and they saw Joe Biden and TikTok and they were like, what planet are we on?
So, Harris, they have a relationship with, but that one issue still bothers them. And now we're at the anniversary and you have more violence in the Middle East.
RAJU: And the protest vote that we saw during the primary, how will that play out in the general election? Another big question and PA, you spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania, working class voters, Joe Biden, of course, he was from Scranton. He had that reputations as pro-working class Democrat.
He -- what does it -- how does it translate to Kamala Harris?
KING: This is a key thing to watch, not just in Pennsylvania but in Michigan and Wisconsin, the firefighters union, right? Kamala Harris thought she was going to get the endorsement. She didn't.
Is one union going to make a difference? Maybe not, but there's a conversation among the Democrats who represent these areas that, wait a minute. Are we starting to fall behind among these people?
Again, 81,660 votes in the state. You mentioned you. So this is, you know, here's Lehigh County where Allentown is, then you move up to Northampton County, a key swing county here. Then you come up to Monroe county here.
This was Joe Biden's bread and butter, Scranton, right?
[08:25:00]
Lackawanna County. This is where he's from. Look at the margin here, right? A key thing to watch on Election Day, where is Harris here?
Yeah, she needs huge black turnout in Philadelphia. Yes. As I just mentioned in the collar counties, the suburbs, she needs you to turn out there. A lot of Haley voters available too here.
But if you look at the polling right now, she's running below Joe Biden with white high school educated, non-college educated voters, working class, people who work with their heads, just running a little bit behind right now.
Forget the polls though, heading into the final 30 days. Let's watch and sees what happens a lot, a lot of Democrats are saying is great she's doing all these interviews now. They want to see her in these communities. They want to see her on factory floors, they want to see her in union halls that she needs to get out and get with these blue- collar workers.
RAJU: Yes. So much will need to happen in the next month for her to win.
And, John, thank you. The data is so essential. Thank you as always for diving deep and breaking it down.
All right. Next, coming up for us, could the Senate race in ruby red Montana caused Democrats the majority. And why is the GOP candidate there largely staying behind closed doors? Well, I head to Big Sky Country to see how a long-term Democratic incumbent is battling to hang on.
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RAJU: Harris is obviously making this harder for you. You're not endorsing her. So --
TESTER: Well, that's because I don't want this race to be nationalized any more than they want it to be nationalized. RAJU: Would you vote for her?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:30:23]
MANU RAJU, CNN HOST: It wasn't too long ago when Democrats dominated Montana politics. Now, they are at risk of being drummed out. Senator Jon Tester, three-term Democratic incumbent is battling not only to remain a force in the state's politics, but also to keep his party in power in the Senate.
Indeed, many Senate watchers believe the outcome of Tester's race against Republican Tim Sheehy will determine the next Senate majority.
So with so much at stake, I traveled to Big Sky country to see how both candidates are faring.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RAJU: Jon Tester, maybe an endangered species. He's the only statewide Democrat in ruby red Montana where Donald Trump won twice by double digits.
Now, the Senate Democrat majority depends on him clinging to a seat he's held for nearly 18 years.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And I thank you for that one vote without that vote, we wouldn't have that.
RAJU: His GOP foe, Tim Sheehy, seeking to ride Trump's coattails and tie Tester to Kamala Harris.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Every single time Biden and Kamala say jump, Jon Tester says, "how high".
RAJU: Harris is obviously making this harder for you. You're not endorsing her. So --
SEN. JON TESTER (D-MT): Well, that's because they don't want this race to be nationalized any more than they want it to be nationalized. I want to talk about Montana. That's what this race is about.
RAJU: Would you vote for her?
TESTER: That's between me and the ballot box.
RAJU: Sheehy, a wealthy political novice, who owns an aerial firefighting company and moved to the state ten years ago, was recruited to run for the seat by party leaders who privately lobbied Trump to back the 38-year-old former Navy seal.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: He's one of the finest men you'll ever see. But Sheehy is going to extreme lengths to avoid scrutiny, declining national and local interview requests, and often campaigning behind closed doors while refusing to provide information about his schedule.
CNN attended a Missoula event promoted by conservative activist Charlie Kirk, not by the Sheehy campaign.
TIM SHEEHY (R-MT), SENATE CANDIDATE: If Trump wins and he doesn't control the Senate, you can assume that he'll be impeached on day one.
RAJU: Sheehy left out the back without taking press questions. And he participated this week in a second and final debate with Tester.
TESTER: When you're running for the office Tim, your statements matter.
SHEEHY: Yes, they do matter and the statement is secure the border. You could have done it four years ago.
RAJU: Sheehy afterwards would not talk.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mr. Sheehy, just has a question.
RAJU: CNN later learned of an event three hours away in Bozeman, Montana with Senator John Kennedy as his guest. But we were told it was a private event.
Can we cover this event.
As Kennedy left without taking questions.
Sheehy's campaign orchestrated the candidate's departure to prevent us from seeing him on camera.
Mr. Sheehy.
Yet Sheehy boasted about the event on social media, writing it was a quote, standing room only crowd.
MIKE DENNISON, MONTANA POLITICAL REPORTER: So he's constructed this persona that he is this young conservative veteran and doesn't really want to deviate that or have anyone ask him any questions about well, where do you stand on this issue?
RAJU: But with split ticket voting now are rare in the Trump era, being a Republican could be enough to win.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is going to be a really hard race up and down for all Montana Democrats because of the -- just the way that people have become more polarized.
RAJU: Tester believe image will help to fight the trend.
Ok. You're the last statewide Democrat in the state. Are you an endangered species here?
TESTER: I don't think so. I think this next election will prove it. RAJU: Is it toxic to be a Democrat IN Montana?
Tester: No, I don't think so. I think YOU just got to make sure you know what you're doing, what you stand for. And what you've accomplished.
RAJU: Yet some who voted for him in the past, say it's time for a change.
ROBIN OWEN, MONTANA VOTER: I'm a little tired of Jon Tester.
RAJU: A staggering $139 million has already been spent across the airwaves, with another $69 million reserved in the final stretch of the campaign, making it the most expensive race in the state's history.
And Democrats hope it will turn on issues like character, health care, and abortion with Montana voters also deciding the fate of that issue this November.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How can I trust Tim Sheehy when he compares mothers like me to murderers?
RAJU: But as he tries to court Trump voters, the GOP pointing out past Tester remarks like this in 2019.
TESTER: I think you need to go back and punch him in the face.
RAJU: As he downplayed those remarks this week --
TESTER: It was totally figuratively speaking and what I was referring to the fact is he's tough on us. You got to be tough on him.
[08:34:49]
RAJU: He also stood by his votes to convict Trump in his two impeachment trials.
TESTER: He absolutely unequivocally is guilty.
RAJU: Do you regret those votes.
TESTER: Not at all. No. I mean, the case was laid out and I was part of the jury and you make the call.
RAJU: While Tester has won three close races, this is the first time Trump has been at the top of the ticket for one of them.
TESTER: Look, there's people out there that believe in Trump and believe in me and we're going to need those folks and plus we're going to need a lot of other folks too.
RAJU: Folks like this Missoula resident. He says he's not endorsing Kamala Harris. Does that bother you?
DENALIE BURNS, MONTANA VOTER: It doesn't because every one of his words and actions support our VP Kamala Harris.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
RAJU: All right. So this is a bit of a model on how a red state Democrat is dealing with the pressures at the top of his ticket, not endorsing, but you know, people say it's the border thing that he said he's going to support her.
Is that -- what do you think of that strategy? And can it be emulated?
LAURA BARRON LOPEZ, PBS NEWSHOUR, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I mean, again, Jon Tester is clearly trying to really just make sure that he's winning over, like he said to you, those Trump voters, that they split their ticket and it's so rare.
So that's why he's playing this bit of a dancing game where he's not exactly endorsing Harris, but still aligns with many of the Biden administration's policies and positions.
One thing that's interesting to me is whether or not that abortion ballot initiative is actually going to help him because in so many states, Democrats are hoping that it translates to support for them, whether it's in the Senate or whether it's in the presidential race --
RAJU: And the house too.
LOPEZ: Right. And in a state like Montana. I mean, so far, all history shows that when abortion is on the ballot, voters go out and support more access. But does that translate to more Democratic votes?
MICHEL MARTIN, NPR "MORNING EDITION" HOST: It's kind of a flip side of Maryland, which is such a reliably blue state as it were, but there's a very, you know, a very popular former Republican governor who was recruited heavily to run. Wasn't really sure he wanted to kind of thought about running for president, realized he couldn't make it. Was recruited to run for the Senate, is more competitive than he should be given the numbers.
And he's trying to soft pedal his own personal opposition to abortion as a voting issue. And so of course, the Democrats are really sort of amplifying that to, in part also, because they think it works.
Also because it's true. It is an important voting issue, but also because the Democratic nominee is not as well-known. She was a county official, not as well-known statewide and has had some stumbles throughout the campaign.
So it's almost like I'm sort of a mirror of each other.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: If you look at that map again though, and you know this better than I do. This is an incredibly favorable map for Republicans and yet, and yet in the polling today, most of these Democrats that they thought they could wipe out, the Republican thought they could have a huge sweep, right?
Sherrod Brown a little bit ahead, right? Tammy Baldwin's a little bit ahead. Bob Casey is a little bit ahead, right. But West Virginia and Montana --
(CROSSTALKING)
KING: -- in the margins are so close. That's the point, enough. So can Jon Tester do -- Susan Collins was the only one in 2020 Republican center of Maine, a moderate, the only one in a state that voted one way for president. They voted the other way for. There was only one in 2020.
Is she -- remember Jeanne Shaheen did this back in New Hampshire, back in one of the Tea Party elections, is she a personal brand. She was jeans, she was not a Democrat. She wasn't Senator Shaheen. But can he be Jon.
RAJU: Yes.
KING: Right. Can he be Jon? Is your personal brand enough to overcome the headwinds. But in a state as you know, that Trump's going to win by 15 -- 20 points that is hard.
RAJU: But it's so interesting because Trump has polarized the electorate in such a different way than other presidential candidates have. And that's why split ticket voting just doesn't exist in the Trump era.
SUSAN GLASSER, THE NEW YORKER STAFF WRITER: Yes. You know, I'm so glad you made that point. So right now, there's only I believe it's five U.S. senators who were elected from one party when the state went a different direction in the presidential. Only five out of 100.
And by the way, one of those is West Virginia, which is going to go away. Tester would be another example of that. And you know, when we were coming up in the, you know, 1980s, it was a timed as much as half of the U.S. Senate represented this.
So it shows the polarization of the country, which is a trend that began before Donald Trump, but he's been the accelerant of it. And I thought it was really interesting that Tester said to you, I don't want to nationalize this election.
It already is.
RAJU: Good luck.
KING: But oddly -- oddly to Laura's point, the abortion referendum, he may need to implicitly he -- he can't say that directly, but he may need Democrats and Independents and moderate Republicans who support abortion rights to come to the polls and think about, do I want to give Donald Trump all that power?
Even though he can't say it.
RAJU: I want you to weigh in on just the Republican handling of this Tim Sheehy. Really did not -- essentially he's been hiding from the press. He doesn't want to be in public with -- obviously it could trip him up. But behind closed doors, according to the Republican Senate Campaign
Committee chairman Steve Daines, who's also a Montana Republican. He says he's getting a lot of a huge interest from the crowds.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. STEVE DAINES (R-MT): I've watched him in -- I mean, I frankly, I wish YOU could have seen him in action I mean --
RAJU: Me too. Me too. We asked for weeks. Trust me, I wanted to.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[08:39:51]
RAJU: But it was a calculation, not just from the national press, calculation did not do interviews with local press also.
MARTIN: Well, that's the unusual thing about it because it is not unusual for candidates to kind of duck the national press because they think you're going to ask questions they don't want to answer. And, you know, they feel like -- and also it's a way of kind of can I say sucking up -- sucking up to the local press because they think they need them more.
But to not engage with the local media is really pretty remarkable.
RAJU: It is because he's got an R by his name and believes that that can essentially be enough. And as we talked here that could potentially be enough. And well see if that actually happens and if the Senate flips.
All right. Up next the potential first spouses are back in the spotlight. A look at how Melania Trump and Doug Emhoff on and off the trail.
Plus, will Melania Trump's support of abortion rights make an impact?
[08:40:36]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
RAJU: Kamala Harris' and Donald Trump's spouses have had well very different roles during this campaign.
Doug Emhoff, who could become the country's first First Gentleman had been headlining events and fundraising out on the trail, while Melania Trump has been largely absent until now. Just a month before election day, she's out promoting her new memoir and then broke with her husband on a key issue in this election -- abortion.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELANIA TRUMP, WIFE OF DONALD TRUMP: without a doubt there is no room for compromise when it comes to this essential right that all women possess from birth -- individual freedom? What does "my body, my choice" really mean?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Ok. My panel is back. What do you make of that.
She decides to -- we have not seen Melania Trump really at all. She barely had any role with the RNC. We saw her briefly there and she comes out publicly and tried to make a splash on the one issue she breaks from the former president -- her husband on, and put out that video.
GLASSER: Yes. I made two observations. Number one, the Trump family and this now includes Melania is not shy to monetize their public presence in our politics. Something that other candidates in both parties have been very reluctant to do. This is I think an under- appreciated norm that has been shattered by the Trump family.
It's really actually kind of extraordinary to be marketing yourself in this way, including I saw that report that her publishing team came back and asked CNN to spend what was it $250,000 for an interview? I know they said it was a mistake, but it was a little bit --
(CROSSTALKING)
RAJU: And CNN declined that.
GLASSER: Yes. It declined the money. So -- but to the point about abortion, I mean, you've got to wonder at a moment when Donald Trump and the other Republican leaders are trying to mitigate this potential very big liability for them electorally that Trump has said publicly, he's concerned about people being upset about Roe versus Wade.
He's tried to obfuscate and to make it unclear what the Republican policy would be if he's re-elected. And, you know, this to me fits squarely and sort of sending up a big kind of smokescreen. What does it mean?
MARTIN: Well, can I just point out that this is the one area in which they do comport to historical norms and that Republican first ladies have often disagreed with their husbands. John and I covered the White House together back in ancient times.
You know, Barbara Bush disagreed with her husband on abortion rights. Laura Bush disagree with her husband on abortion rights.
RAJU: But to come up publicly a month before the election.
(CROSSTALKING)
MARTIN: Well, I think Susan said it.
KING: Right. Remember in the first Trump term, the idea that don't worry when he goes way out there, Ivanka is in the White House and she's going to moderate him. That didn't happen.
So if you think the goal here is that Melania is going to moderate him, I would just say that I go back to Susans point and we have some INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY water cups week.
GLASSER: $250,000 for a full sponsorship.
LOPEZ: Moderate him but also moderate J.D. Vance, right. Because J.D. Vance on this specific issue has really hurt the Trump campaign. And so many women voters, when you go out and talk to them in swing states, they just bring him up and his past comments without even asking about him.
RAJU: Yes. And just look at just the take of the "New York Times", their takeaway of the book, talks about things that she discussed, usually in line with Trump on so many different issues. He really didn't get into many of the scandals.
She does talk about January 6. She said she was reviewing White House restorations during the time -- room restoration during the time of the attack, according to "The Times" report. She writes that she declined to denounce the violence because her press secretary at the time and unnamed Stephanie Grisham did not give her the full details of what was happening.
Mrs. Trump writes that "My team was already behind schedule and focused on the task". She said -- she also said according to the report, "I'm not the only person who questions the results of the 2020 election."
GLASSER: You know, look, Melania, one of the fallacies for four years was this idea of free Melania Trump. Remember that protesters, the women's march right after Trump was elected, there was this idea that Melania was somehow, you know, sort of a secret opponent of Trump's or that she was so unhappy.
It strikes me that what we've learned is that you might not be super close to Donald Trump, but also not be, you know, in the camp of his opponents. And I think Melania Trump has shown that once again.
RAJU: Meantime --
MARTIN: She's not on the ballot. She's not on the ballot.
RAJU: Yes.
MARTIN: Nobody's voting for her.
RAJU: But meantime, you know, Doug Emhoff, has been out there.
He's been fundraising, he's been was on a podcast on Friday talking about how his role in trying to fight anti-Semitism. He may be the first Jewish first spouse. What do you think? What have you heard about how the Harris campaign has tried to deploy him?
BARON: Yes. I mean, he's been deployed in a much more traditional way I think compared to other spouses. And he's been out there. He, I think, is about to be on the west again in the swing states in the Sun Belt.
[08:49:48]
LOPEZ: And I think that, you know, voters so far have responded well to him. He's not someone that really upsets voters. They think he's funny and they like seeing him out there on the campaign trail.
RAJU: All right. We shall see how that plays out. Thank you, panel.
And coming up, tonight, our Kaitlan Collins has an hour-long special about the potential first spouses. Tune into "THE WHOLE STORY WITH ANDERSON COOPER" tonight, 8:00 p.m. Eastern and Pacific right here on CNN.
Coming up, Oklahoma wants to buy 55,000 bibles for its public schools and the unusual requirements match up with two versions endorsed by the former president. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:54:45]
RAJU: Back in June, Oklahoma's school superintendent ordered all public schools in the state to teach the Bible and Ten Commandments with plans to purchase 55,000 bibles to distribute statewide.
Now, this week, the department raised eyebrows when he laid out the specifications for what needs to be included in those bibles because they match perfectly with two versions of the bible endorsed by, well none other than Donald Trump.
While excluding many other, more common versions. Oklahoma says the bibles must be the King James Version but also must include American historical texts, like the declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights.
Requirements met by musician Lee Greenwood's $60 "God Bless the U.S.A. Bible", which Trump has endorsed. And according to Oklahoma Watch, which first broke the story, Trump also received some of the proceeds from the sales of the bible.
Another bible that meets the requirements, the "We, The People Bible" was also endorsed by Trump. That one cost $90. Now Oklahoma's Department of Education says the request for bids were consistent with the norms of state procurement.
All right. That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY, you can follow me on X @mkraju, follow the show at INSIDE POLITICS. If you ever miss an episode, catch up wherever you get your podcasts, just search for INSIDE POLITICS.
Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Dana's guests include Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, RNC co-chair Lara Trump, and Maryland Republican Senate candidate Larry Hogan.
Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.
[08:56:14]
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