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Rescue Teams Respond To Flooding Following Hurricane Milton; Obama's Pitch To Men: Trump "Not What Real Strength Is"; Presidential Race Remains Deadlocked 25 Days Out; Pro-Trump Advertisers Attack Harris On Trans Policies In New Ads; New Dem Ad Warns A Vote Jill Stein Is "A Voter For Trump". Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 11, 2024 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[12:31:49]

JESSICA DEAN, CNN ANCHOR: This just in. President Biden will travel to Florida on Sunday to visit communities that were hit hard by Hurricane Milton. We know at least 16 people are dead after that monstrous storm tore through Florida, bringing with it dozens of tornadoes and dangerous flooding. And right now, rescue teams are responding as rivers continue to overflow, unable to contain the heavy rainfall and catastrophic storm surge.

CNN's Isabel Rosales is in Hillsborough County, Florida. Isabel, I know you have been there for days now. What are you seeing?

ISABEL ROSALES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Jessica, I just took an airboat ride with Sheriff Chad Chronister here of Hillsborough County. And he's urging people that this water is just going to rise and rise. He's saying, please, leave the area. So a dangerous situation here in the days after Milton even as we're seeing these rivers swell past their banks.

You can see right behind me here the sheriff's office is set up. They've got these amphibious vehicles, and that is what they're going to need to go in there and help people who are trapped by these flood waters who want to get out. And as we turn the camera over here, you can see what they're dealing with.

And this is by the way the most shallow water, that was deeper in there and that water in certain areas can definitely go past your waist. But look at this gas station, look at these cars that are flooded out. And you see that? That's how people are getting around in boats, in kayaks. They're going to need that because this has swelled up so much.

And the Alafia River is a mile away. And look at this, this is what they're doing. They're packing up whatever they can from their house, water, or food, basic clothing and putting it in cars and then leaving elsewhere to shelter, to stay with friends, family, whatever they can find.

I want you to now listen to an interview I did with Ralph, who was packing up his home, and here's what he saw.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, I'm just trying to get the clothes that I have, that I can -- all the clothes I can possibly grab. We left last night at 10:30, with 3 foot of water outside. So, my daughter says it was going to come up even higher. So, we walked back and forth. We parked the cars earlier up the hill.

So her and I carried everything back and forth. And by the time we were done, it was another 8 inches. So it was anywhere from hip to chest deep by the time we got done.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

ROSALES: Yes, just heart-breaking to listen to these stories. And Sheriff Chronister also says that something that's also deeply concerning him is that there's a damn nearby, that if the water gets too high, they're going to have no choice but to release the damn, right, the water from there, which is just going to mean higher and higher waters for this people, a worsening situation.

And our Derek Van Dam, our meteorologist at CNN, he did tell me that this Alafia River, the water levels are expected to cross tonight at midnight, meaning just naturally, this is going to get worse at 25.5 feet. That is not the record of 28 feet, but still major flood stage, a deeply concerning situation for anyone living close to the river. Jessica?

DEAN: So much water everywhere.

All right, Isabel Rosales for us in Florida. Thank you so much for that update.

Coming up, dudes. They just might determine who sits in the Oval Office come January. We're going to get the polls from two top pollsters. That's next.

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[12:39:36]

DEAN: With just 25 days left until Election Day, former President Trump and Vice President Harris are looking for an issue. Any issue to move the needle for voters. We got some new battleground state polls from the Wall Street Journal this morning. No surprise here.

It really couldn't be any closer. We continue to see that bear out. Donald Trump holds a five-point lead in Nevada, but the other six swing states statistically tied in those new polls.

Joining me now, Republican pollster Whit Ayres and Democratic pollster Margie Omero. Great to have both of you here with us.

WHIT AYRES: Good to be with you.

[12:40:06]

DEAN: I want to talk first -- let's talk about male voters because I feel like they're getting a lot of attention right now. We heard from former President Barack Obama last night. Let's play a clip.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I've noticed this, especially with some men who seem to think Trump's behavior, the bullying and the putting people down, is a sign of strength. Real strength is about working hard. And carrying a heavy load without complaining. Real strength is about taking responsibility for your actions and telling the truth.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

DEAN: Margie, is there enough time for this, that messaging to sink in with voters? And why do you see this -- I know there's a million reasons for the gender gap, but what are you seeing that stands out to you in your polling?

MARGIE OMERO, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Well, there are a couple of things. First of all, the gender gap has been around for a lot longer than Donald Trump has been a candidate for office. People -- there's been a difference in the party preferences of men and women since 1980, 1982, a long time.

So, when we talk about male voters and female voters and their preferences, we should not assume that differences between them are based solely on gender because there are party identification differences between the two. So that's the first thing.

I do think it's -- I mean, I think men are rejecting Donald Trump's, you know, style, which is what Obama's talking about in that clip. We hear it all the time in focus groups from men and women. Republican leaning men and women are like, I wish Trump wouldn't talk like that. I wish he wouldn't use those words. I wish he wouldn't bully people.

Even if they are Republican and so feel some affinity toward him and what they see as his policies, they don't really like the style because voters across the board feel that we're too divided. And so anything that is like, encouraging that division is something that people really find unpleasant and really not moving us in the direction that they want.

DEAN: Yes. But, yes, Whit, Trump has made some inroads with men of color, voters, and clearly Democrats are nervous about particularly black men in this election.

WHIT AYRES, GOP POLLSTER: Well, they should be. As Margie said, we've had a gender gap for years, but we could be having a gender chasm now because Donald Trump is appealing to some of the lower income minority males in a way that no other Republican has before. And he's doing it based on economic concerns because they believe, quite rightly, I think, that the pre-pandemic Trump economy was better for them than the Biden-Harris economy. Interest rates were lower, gas prices were lower, and $100 worth of groceries in 2019 cost $125 today. Inflation may have moderated, but it's not going backwards.

DEAN: And I want to talk a little bit about ad spending, especially on the GOP side. Because in the first week of October, the GOP ads ramped up their spending on LGBTQ issues specifically, spending more than $8 million on ads that referenced it, only second to taxation. Do you think that's a smart move?

AYRES: It's all part of the culture wars. Why does Hulk Hogan show up at a Republican convention and rip his shirt off? It's all a matter of trying to send a signal that we're for people like you, and the other side is not.

DEAN: Margie, how does Harris combat that? That's a lot of money toward a very specific issue. They're clearly trying to reach people, that they think this is effective. They're spending a lot of money on it.

OMERO: I mean look, if you're talking about the culture wars, in that respect, if the culture wars is something that Democrats now have won, Republicans have ceded by talking about -- you know, lying about candidates records, not talking about their own vision, instead of talking about the economy, instead of talking about the things people care about, they are using -- you know, lying about people's records as a way and spending money solely on negative ads and not talking about any positive vision for what Trump wants for the country.

You see no positive advertising coming out of their camp. And it's something that people are just sick of. Every election cycle, Republicans, whether it's candidates for Senate or Congress or the top of the ticket, have some like scary ad that they're running around the country and voters are just, they're sick of it.

They find it, you know, not what they care about. It's not the issues that they're thinking about when they're trying to decide how to vote.

DEAN: What are these -- specifically, these -- a lot of these ads are based around transgender people and what they deserve from the government or not. Are these issues that are coming up, that people are bringing up to you in your polling, in your focus groups?

AYRES: People who are attracted to Donald Trump bring it up a lot, particularly the issue of transgender women, transgender athletes in women's sports. That seems to be the real key point that gets people upset. But it's not. Anywhere near as important as immigration or the economy or abortion or any of those other issues. But it is an issue that appeals to a certain segment of Trump's supporters.

[12:45:05]

OMERO: I mean, here's the thing that I do hear all the time regularly in focus groups since the Dobbs decision. I have people in focus groups on a regular basis, when I say regular, I mean, a few times a month, crying -- were moved to tears because of an ectopic pregnancy, of a crisis pregnancy that they needed to have an abortion, of driving a friend of theirs to another state, of thinking of moving because their wife was high risk and they were trying to plan to expand their family, or they had a daughter or granddaughter who was assaulted, regularly, I hear about this.

And what are we hearing from Republicans on the issue? They're lying about their record or just hoping the issue goes away and not talking about it at all because their position is really supported by just a single digit percent of the electorate, that total ban, the national ban, the total ban on abortion that is now, you know, the law of the land in 16 states that, you know, Republicans support, is not something that voters, even Republican voters support.

DEAN: And as we were saying in the break, I feel like anyone that pays attention to politics is clinging to each new poll that comes out. Everyone's looking for a crystal ball. Newsflash, we don't have one. But that being said, we do know this race is extremely tight. I think that is a fact and we do know that.

But the polling can be kind of confusing if you're taking it in every day. Some polls will say, for example, Harris is gaining an edge on the economy. Others will say, no, no, no, Trump is ahead on that. Some say Harris is pulling away in Nevada. Then we see the Wall Street Journal poll today on Nevada. What should people out there make of kind of all of these little swings back and forth?

AYRES: Jessica, professional polling firms like ours have gotten really good at polling. But the fact is, our techniques are not precise enough to be able to tell the difference between a 48-47 Trump lead or 48-47 Harris lead. The fact is that the margin of error goes up when you get an even split in the sample.

It goes up by about a point when it's 50-50 as opposed to when it's 80-20. So the best you can do is look at these numbers and say, you know what? This race is tied. It's tied almost nationally. Harris has a small lead. But in all the seven swing states that are going to decide the election, it's basically a dead heat.

DEAN: Yes.

AYRES: That's the best we can say.

DEAN: Yes. Margie, just to give people context, is this closer than it normally is? This feels incredibly deadlock.

OMERO: I feel like this is what we expected. We expected a close race. The country's, you know, divided along partisan lines. I'm not surprised that it's close. It's been close for, you know, since Harris has been the nominee. And I know it hasn't moved a lot despite a feeling like there's a lot of stuff happening.

And to your question, you know, people who are breathing it in every day, don't breathe it in every day. Like, go out and, you know, support your candidate and convince your friends and family to go out and vote and neighbors to go out and vote.

DEAN: Right. Yes. In the end, what everyone can do is just vote and then we have to see what happens. All right --

AYRES: Amen (ph).

DEAN: Thanks. Stick around with us.

Coming up, a brand new Harris campaign ad that tears into Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Just how worried are they that she could cost Harris's presidency?

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[12:52:39]

DEAN: The DNC and Vice President Harris campaign are out with a brand new ad, but this one's not about Donald Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Jill Stein, Green Party, candidate for president. So why are Trump's close allies helping her? Stein was key to Trump's 2016 wins in battleground states. She's not sorry she helped Trump win. That's why a vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

DEAN: I'm back now with Republican pollster Whit Ayres and Democratic pollster Margie Omero. Margie, she's polling at about 1 percent in battleground states. Are Democrats nervous about this? Is this going to a problem for them?

OMERO: It's just, you know, not leaving anything to chance and making sure voters who are supporting her have the message that they need, have the information that they need to make a decision. Which is, you know, Jill Stein said, her campaign said, we're going to help the Harris lose in Michigan. They said, you know, recently.

So, being able to make sure that voters have that information, have a little bit more information of her is campaign should do, well-funded, well-resourced campaign like the Harris campaign should be doing a variety of different things.

There are a variety -- and the DNC. Everybody together should work in a variety of different places to make sure voters have what they need. They know how to vote. They know to vote for it. They know where the candidates stand on the issues, et cetera.

DEAN: Yes. And then you have RFK Jr. who has endorsed Trump, but could he hurt Trump in a way in those states where he's on the ballot?

AYRES: He remains on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan, for example.

DEAN: Right.

AYRES: And so who knows what's going to happen there. But third party candidates can have an effect. Supporters of George H.W. Bush, President Bush, believe that Ross Perot cost him the presidency in 1992. And supporters of Al Gore believe that Ralph Nader cost him the presidency in 2000. So they can really have an effect, especially in these swing states where the margin could be one half of one percentage point.

DEAN: That's what I was going to say. When it's this close and I don't have the -- you're literally posters. But, you know, when it's that close, anything that moves it just enough can make a big difference.

OMERO: Right.

AYRES: Yes.

DEAN: Yes. All right, thanks to both of you for being here.

AYRES: My pleasure.

DEAN: Really appreciate it.

And thank you for joining Inside Politics. Be sure to tune into State of the Union this Sunday. Dana will interview Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock and Congressman James Clyburn. That is Sunday at 9:00 a. m. Eastern.

Also on Sunday, Omar Jimenez is on the ground speaking to residents of Springfield, Ohio, as Donald Trump vows to deport the city's Haitian immigrants.

[12:55:09]

That new episode of "The Whole Story with Anderson Cooper" airs Sunday night at 8:00 p.m. here on CNN. CNN News Central starts after the break. Have a great rest of the day.

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