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Bannon Released From Prison After Serving 4-Month Sentence; Tonight: Harris Speech Campaign Is Billing As Closing Argument; Trump Calls NYC Rally An "Absolute Love Fest"; Harry Enten Dissects The Data: White Voters Seem To Be Shifting Left While The Overall Electorate Is Shifting Right. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 29, 2024 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[12:32:24]

DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: Quote, "I'm not broken, I'm empowered," end quote. That's Steve Bannon's message just hours after leaving federal prison, free man.

CNN Sara Murray is following this story. So here we are one week before the election and Steve Bannon is back. He's got a very large MAGA megaphone and he's not afraid to use it. What are you hearing from your sources about how he intends to do that?

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, he's back and he is hitting the ground running. He is already returned to hosting his War Room podcast. He's planning on having a press conference in New York later today.

You know, sources told our colleague Kristen Holmes that Bannon was in touch even while he was behind bars with a handful of loyalists to talk about politics, news of the day. We know that, you know, even if you're an inmate, you have phone privileges and in this case, certain email privileges.

But Bannon made clear on his return to his podcast, and he's focused on two things. One is get out the vote, revving up the Trump base. And the second is already spreading conspiracies that Democrats are trying to steal the election. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

STEVE BANNON, FORMER TRUMP WHITE HOUSE CHIEF STRATEGIST: We have two things we're going to talk about today, to get out the vote effort, focused on our first phase, which is November 5th. Then the second is to make sure that they cannot steal the election.

This show has never been more powerful. The voices behind it have never been more powerful. The audience has never been more powerful. And we're going to deliver a knockout blow to your progressive insanity on 5 November.

(END VIDEOCLIP) MURRAY: You heard Bannon say that the show has never been more powerful. That's not exactly true. I talked to people who track podcast metrics, including folks from Podchaser, who said that once Bannon was behind bars in early July, the War Room podcast really fell from the top of the chart where it was before, according to Apple Podcasts and Political Podcasts.

And so Bannon's going to have to do some work to bring that audience back. And when I talk to folks who monitor this sort of conservative media ecosystem, they're watching what he's doing in the next week in the run up to Election Day, but they're also going to be really closely watching Bannon's incendiary rhetoric, if it looks like Donald Trump is coming up short on Election Day, Dana.

BASH: Sara, thank you so much for that. I really appreciate it.

And coming up, more than a quarter of the likely electorate has already voted. That's what the Democrats are saying and that's what we are seeing from the states. What is the Democrats plan from -- for winning over late deciders? A top Harris campaign adviser, Stephanie Cutter, will be here after a short break.

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[12:39:26]

BASH: Tonight, Vice President Harris will make what her campaign is calling her closing argument to voters, and she's doing it not from Philadelphia or from Milwaukee, but from the National Mall here in Washington, D.C., specifically at the site of Donald Trump's rally on January 6, 2021 that preceded the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

Joining me now to preview that speech is Harris campaign senior adviser Stephanie Cutter, who has worked on seven presidential campaigns, five of them at a senior level, including this one. Thank you so much for being here.

I first want to ask if you want to respond to what you heard from the former president suggesting that this rally at Madison Square Garden was full of love.

[12:40:09]

STEPHANIE CUTTER, SENIOR ADVISER, HARRIS-WALZ CAMPAIGN: Well, it's hard to have a response every time he says something like this. But anybody watching that rally, particularly if you're Puerto Rican or if you're Latino or any of the groups that were singled out and attacked that you saw any love there, certainly not for you.

I think anybody watching on TV didn't see themselves as being part of his club of him working for them. It was divisive. It was racist and, frankly, insulting to talk about the American people that way. Very similar to how he talks about his January 6th rally how that was a day of love.

Nothing was loving about that day. Not to the 140 Capitol Police officers that were attacked or even his own vice president whose life was in danger. Nothing about that was love.

BASH: Jen O'Malley Dillon, the campaign chair of Harris-Walz said a couple of things this morning. One is she said that 3 percent to 5 percent of people in each battleground state are still making up their minds. She also just did a video that she put online saying we are going to win this thing. What about tonight's speech will appeal to that 3 percent to 5 percent, a, and, b, makes her sound confident in a way that we haven't heard up until now?

CUTTER: Well, that 3 percent to 5 percent, those are largely right leaning swing voters. And, if they were going to vote for Trump, they would have already voted for him. They are open to us. And they're not for Trump for a very particular reason. They're exhausted by this.

So tonight is really about, you know, it is on the site where he had his January 6th rally. It's in -- the backdrop is the White House to really pinpoint what this race is about. Who do you see in that Oval Office? Do you see somebody who sat there, you know, four years ago, stewing and plotting on how he was going to seek his revenge or how he was going to overturn the will of the voters and claim he won the election?

Would somebody who sat there watching the United States Capitol being stormed by a violent mob that he had decided, knowing that his vice president was up there and saying, so what? Is that what you want as a president? Or do you want somebody, instead of having an enemies list, like Donald Trump, has a to-do list of things that she actually wants to get done for the American people? And she'll detail that tonight.

You know, most of her career is not based in Washington. It's based outside of Washington. She knows the best ideas don't only come from Washington. She's going to talk about how she will bring people together, reach outside of Washington, build consensus, and get things done.

BASH: Josh Dawsey with the Washington Post, which is here saying that when he talks to his sources in the Trump campaign, what they say, he's -- he says, they might not be right. And, obviously, you have a different perspective, which I want you to give here is that all of that about Donald Trump is baked in.

And so, what about tonight's speech will change their minds, particularly since it hasn't happened? I know it's been a short campaign --

CUTTER: Been a short campaign.

BASH: -- but it hasn't happened yet.

CUTTER: There are few moments that a candidate can speak to the American people in an unfiltered way. And tonight will be one of them. And, you know, she's a former prosecutor. She knows how to make a closing argument. This is going to be a good speech.

BASH: So you don't believe that the Trump character argument is already big chance to be elected? CUTTER: Big character argument. What I think is that he has been out of the -- out of view for five -- four years. And the -- there's a reason the Vice President said at the debate, you know, everybody should watch his rallies and see what he's -- what's going on there and see the unhinged rhetoric from him.

And he's not talking about you. He's not talking about how he's going to make your life better. He's talking about who he's going to get even with, and how he's demonizing whole populations of people against each other. People forget that.

There was a lot of Trumpnesia out there, particularly for that swing vote that we're talking about. His base? Yes, that's all baked in. For that swing vote, they're deciding, do I want another four years of that, where he's not going to do one thing to make my life better and I have to put up with this and know that he's dividing me against my neighbor? That's a real decision that people are making.

And what tonight is about and what she has been doing on the campaign trail for the last 90 days is saying that she's going to be a president for all Americans and that she has a history of getting things done for people. She's taken on big banks, won historic settlements for homeowners.

She's taken on drug companies. She's taken on transnational gangs and drug cartels, all because she was doing this on behalf of the people. They are her clients. Donald Trump, his client is himself. All because she was doing this on behalf of the people. They are her clients.

Donald Trump? His client is himself.

[12:45:09]

BASH: Stephanie, I want you to look at, and I know you have seen, the pro-Harris Super PAC, Future Forward, recently wrote a memo warning, you all in the campaign against leaning too hard into the, quote unquote, "fascism as" a closing argument. "How effective is attacking Trump for being a fascist? This topic is not as persuasive as contrast messages featuring Harris's economic plans and her promise to protect reproductive rights."

Now, people who watch Inside Politics probably know this, but I will just explain that legally, people in the Super PAC can't talk to you --

CUTTER: Right.

BASH: -- inside the campaign. So putting out a public memo is a way to reach you. So what is your message and what is your sort of response to that concern that they have?

CUTTER: They should listen to what she's saying on the campaign trail. And no, we can't coordinate, but they can see the ads that we're running. They can see what she's saying on the campaign trail. Kamala Harris is not running on Donald Trump being a fascist. It was his four-star general chief of staff, one of the people closest to him when he was president who said that he's a fascist. It's the joint chairman of the chief of staff, General Milley, who says that he's a fascist. These things are reality.

And when Kelly came out last week and he did that on purpose, that's a 911 call to the American people like, hey, this guy is dangerous. That's not how we're closing our campaign. Of course, we think he's dangerous too. We think he's unhinged, but there is a larger argument here.

You know, you know what you're getting with Donald Trump. He is dangerous. He is unhinged. And this time, he'll be unchecked because he is putting all of his loyalists in the White House and the Supreme Court has given him immunity. So you thought he was bad last time, wait until you see what he does this time.

But there's a more powerful argument about what Kamala Harris is going to do to turn the page on all of that and restore reproductive rights for women, lower costs, move the country forward. All of those things that she's fighting for.

BASH: And we'll just -- we'll hear all of that in the speech tonight --

CUTTER: You will.

BASH: -- not just about democracy. Yes, no.

CUTTER: The speech is about how we're going to turn the page --

BASH: Got it.

CUTTER: -- and move this country forward and restore rights, lower costs and make the economy work for the middle class.

BASH: Thank you, Stephanie. Thanks for being here.

CUTTER: Thanks for having me.

And coming up, CNN's Harry Enten is at the Magic Wall to explain how a popular vote and the electoral vote may surprise us next week.

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[12:52:12]

BASH: Now to tales of elections past. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 2.9 million votes. But, of course, she lost the Electoral College to Donald Trump. Now in 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by an even larger margin. He beat Donald Trump, though, in the race for electoral votes. So the question is, what might we see next week?

CNN's Harry Enten joins me now. What do you think, Harry? HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes, what do I think? I think a lot of things. But on this particular topic, I think the popular vote in the Electoral College gap could actually shrink from where we were in 2020. I'm going to take you through the numbers to get an indication as to why that is.

So let's just talk about the key battleground states. You know, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and the Sun Belt, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the Great Lake battleground states. And what we see is we see more red on the side of the screen with the Sun Belt.

If you look on the Great Lakes, we got a tie in Pennsylvania in the aggregate. Wisconsin is a tie. Michigan, plus one Harris, well within the margin of error. So what does this mean for the Electoral College map? Well, Harris's best path, in my mind, if she wins the states in which she's ahead and currently tied in, runs through the Great Lake Battleground states, right?

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. We also have Nevada in blue here because it's tied in the aggregate, but that state doesn't really matter in terms of getting the 270 electoral votes. So, what does this exactly mean? Well, if we look right now and compare Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the polling average is there, compared to the United States.

Look. Right now, Kamala Harris is up by just a point in the national aggregate. Even in her worst state in the Great Lakes, it's a tie. There's just a one point difference. Compare that to where we were four years ago in the election results, right? Joe Biden won by 4.5 points nationally.

If you look at Michigan, look at that. Nearly 2 points worse for him. Pennsylvania, nearly 3 points worse for him. Wisconsin, nearly 4 points worse for him. And this was Biden's best path to 270 electoral votes. So the gap between Wisconsin and the nation as a whole has shrunk considerably, as well as the Great Lake Battleground states as well.

And that's a big reason why I think the Electoral College popular vote gap will shrink, because that then is what the polling is showing.

BASH: And so then the obvious follow is, why? Why is that all happening?

ENTEN: Why? Why is that all happening? Because the polls say one thing, but then you have to dig into the crosstabs to figure out why that is happening.

Well. This will give you an indication as to why. All right, this is Democrat versus Trump. This is the margin. We go back to November of 2020. We compare it to the polls in October of 2024. Look at this, overall, Joe Biden won the national popular vote by 4 points. Kamala Harris is just ahead by 1.

But look among white voters, the trend is going in the opposite direction. Donald Trump won white voters by 14 points back in 2020.

[12:55:03]

Now, it's just a 9-point advantage for Donald Trump. He's actually losing among white voters. The reason he's gaining nationally is because he's doing so well among voters of color. Of course, what does it mean if he's losing among white voters?

Well, if you look at the electoral map and you look where white voters, a big part of the electorate, well, nationally, white voters make up 68 percent. But in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, they make up 81 percent. So if there's one state where Kamala Harris doing better among white voters matters, it matters in the great lake battleground states, Dana.

BASH: Harry, always good to see you. Thanks for breaking that down for us. Appreciate it.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BASH: And thank you for joining us on Inside Politics today. CNN News Central will start after a quick break.

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