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Any Moment: Texas Officials Provide Update On Deadly Flooding; Now: Texas Officials Provide Update On Deadly Flooding; Fifty-Nine Dead In Texas Flooding, Including 21 Children; 59 Dead in Texas Flooding, Including 21 Children; Trump's Megabill Kickstarts Races Key To Control Of Congress; Elon Musk Pledged A New Party. Aired 11a-12p ET

Aired July 06, 2025 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:00:44]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning and welcome to "Inside Politics Sunday." I'm Jeff Zeleny in today for Manu Raju.

We're standing by for an update any moment from Texas officials on the devastating flooding that has killed at least 51 people. We'll bring that to you as -- live as soon as it begins.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: And I'm Boris Sanchez here on the ground in Hunt, Texas.

Right now, search and rescue crews on foot are using chainsaws to cut through the debris as they continue to search for the many people still missing, including 27 people from this summer camp overrun by the floodwaters, Camp Mystic. This is a short distance from where we are right now.

You see these crews literally using chainsaws to move debris out of the way. The devastation in Central Texas over the last two days has just been astounding. Floodwaters, historic floodwaters ravaging this community.

And you can see in this time lapse we're about to show you the Llano River in Kingsland, Texas overflowing with water rushing in. This is the span of 30 minutes.

You see folks moving further and further back as that water creeps up. That is similar to what we've seen the devastation on the ground here just outside of Camp Mystic.

Officials are scouring the wreckage this morning as the search for the missing grows more desperate by the hour.

Governor Greg Abbott says this is a 24/7 operation and that crews will not stop searching until everyone is found. We heard from Texas' lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick a moment ago saying that it is my hope that miracles still happen. They're still hoping to find someone out there alive as many remain missing.

So far, hundreds have been rescued from campsites, not dissimilar to this one. We know that the Trump administration is now in the process of sending resources to the state to help.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is in Texas where she has pledged federal support for those who have been affected.

And as we await this news conference with Texas officials, I do want to bring in Jason Pack, who's with us. He's a former FEMA external affairs officer, a retired FBI supervisory special agent.

Jason, you obviously have a lot of experience in emergency situations like this. This is now a 48-plus hours into search and rescue operations.

A lot of families out there are desperate for any signs of hope as we see these crews. And I just want to let our viewers know these are mostly volunteers, folks who know people here at Camp Mystic. A lot of them former veterans or just veterans, I should say, and they're trying to move debris looking for whatever might be underneath.

I --I wonder, Jason, as folks are hoping that a miracle happens, talk to us about the challenges that are in place for first responders, not only with debris and vehicles overturned, but also with the fact that more rain is coming.

JASON PACK, FORMER FEMA EXTERNAL AFFAIRS OFFICER: That's right, Boris. We -- we do echo Deputy Governor Patrick's hope for those miracles as a first responder. You want to be out there and do everything you can to find those who are missing.

As you see, we've moved into kind of a second phase of the search and rescue. There's fewer water rescues going on with boats and swift water. And we've changed those now to chainsaws and ground searches.

So, one of the teams we haven't talked much about are these FEMA teams known as urban search and rescue teams. Texas has two of those. We've seen Texas Task Force One there on the ground in Kerrville.

Those are specially trained urban search and rescue first responders certified by FEMA, and they'll go door to door.

And what makes this somewhat challenging is these homes, many of them have been washed off their foundations, are there unstable. These piles of debris are not stable.

So, they're really, even though the water has gone, the risk to the responders is still great out there. So, they have to be extra careful going in and out of these homes.

SANCHEZ: Yes, no doubt. I -- I also want to show our viewers these cabins behind me because to your point about things getting dangerous as the floodwaters were rushing in here at Camp Mystic. We understand that camp counselors had to bust open the windows of these structures to try to get kids out. These are children as young as 9 and 10 years old.

[11:05:01]

I wonder, as you hear, Jason, that there are -- are volunteers here on the ground trying to tend to the damage at places like Camp Mystic.

I imagine that one of the unique challenges is that these are neighbors helping neighbors. And there has to be an emotional impact to that for the folks that are trying to lend a helping hand to see their community and quite possibly friends of loved ones or even loved ones in the worst possible state.

PACK: That's right, Boris, you know, when you live or work in a small town like that, everyone knows everyone. These are a little bit transient residents. You have the campers at the RV parks and you have the kids coming in to summer camp, but they still -- the responders are still going to know folks in this area.

And you're right, the neighbors are helping neighbors. When bad things happen in communities, we often see the best in people and that's exactly what we're seeing on the ground right here. Neighbors are helping neighbors.

People want to help and do whatever it is they can do particularly when there are children missing and this makes the situation even that more urgent.

SANCHEZ: Jason, I --I want to get your perspective on some of the questions that have been brought up because of this sort of different view that President Trump has of how FEMA should operate. He believes that a lot of emergency management should be left to the states.

Do you think that that is presenting unique challenges here? Is that something for further down the road in the weeks and months to come as this area recovers?

PACK: Well, I think those are fair questions, because as a first responder who's been on in numerous emergency operations centers and fires and floods and hurricanes, when you talk about these things this early, it kind of is demoralizing to first responders. And so sure, it's a fair question for later. But right now, I don't think that's the time right now. We should be concentrated on the rescue efforts out there in the support of the persons and the people who are doing that hard work.

SANCHEZ: Yes. Totally understand that. And it is very difficult work as we are watching first-hand with crews trying to move very heavy debris.

Some of the trees around here that we've looked at appear to have been carried down by the river itself. This is the Guadalupe River behind me. It apparently went from about a foot of depth to about 24 feet in a matter of hours. So, you can imagine the kind of power that, that has.

As you hear that, Jason, what can you tell us about what these crews are thinking as they go into areas like this? That's actually an SUV that you're seeing on your screen that was carried by the water just across from this embankment where we are right now.

What -- what is the mentality when you're going into a scene like this when you're -- when you're not sure exactly what you're going to find?

PACK: Well, like all first responders or many first responders, you have to compartmentalize that a little bit and just focus on the task at hand.

You're walking into places that are unreal. And you can't really believe what you're seeing with your eyes, but you have to rely on your training and you lean into that and you do what needs to be done.

I think a lot of people underestimate the power of water and flooding. It can move mountains. And it certainly has shown us what it can do in -- in just a quick day or two here in Texas.

You know, your forecasters mentioned that you had 24 feet or so of water just coming up in an hour and that's just really unheard of. So, the damage that can do both upstream and then further on downstream, you know, these areas that you're looking at, they're going to have to search further on down to Guadalupe to make sure that there are no victims.

Even further down there, we heard these stories of people being swept 20 miles or so down the river. And this is not like a ride at Dollywood. This is like they're -- they're passing RVs and there are natural gas containers in there and there are debris. And it's just -- it's just unfathomable really how -- how somebody could survive such a long ride down the river like that, a miracle no doubt.

SANCHEZ: Yes. And -- and we are undoubtedly hoping for one.

Jason Pack, so great to get your point of view as we await this update on deadly flooding in Central Texas.

This news conference by Texas officials said to begin at any moment. We're going to bring it to you live. We're going to sneak in a quick break. Much more, still ahead.

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[11:10:03]

SANCHEZ: Let's get you straight to officials in Kerr County who are giving an update on flood search and rescue efforts. Let's listen.

LARRY LEITHA, KERR COUNTY SHERIFF: City manager will go next and give you some information. And then we'll finish with our Kerrville mayor.

OK. What I'm here to do, like I said, is give you all the most current update information. Please bear in mind, these numbers will continue to change. As I'm walking in the door, I'm getting texts. It's going to be like yesterday. I think these numbers will continue to change and -- and increase as time goes on. But like I said, we'll -- we'll do a good job and keep you updated.

Search and rescue operations continue with a full response from local, state, and national first responders.

At present, there's over 400 first responders for more than 20 agencies that are working in Kerr County. We have -- we have more than a dozen K9 working in and near the river. More than 100 air, water, and ground vehicles are in the field right now working on this search and rescue.

As of 9:00 A.M. this morning, we've recorded 59 deceased in Kerr County. Among those who are deceased, we have 38 adults and 21 children. And adults pending identification, and four children are also pending identification.

At present, there are 11 Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, along with one counselor.

We extend our sincerest condolences and prayers for every single family affected by this tragedy. And we continue to work around the clock and reunite these families. We will continue to search our search efforts until everybody is found.

Our missing person center -- call center is open, and those reporting missing loved ones can call the number 830-285 -- 258-1111. I repeat one more time, 830-258-1111.

Please follow the Kerr County Sheriff's Office in City of Kerrville Facebook for your latest information.

At this time, I'll turn it over to our City Manager, Dalton Rice.

DALTON RICE, KERRVILLE CITY MANAGER: Thank you, Sheriff. Thank you all for being here today. Everyone in the community is hurting. And we know many of you are locals or have some local connections here. So, please keep -- keep everybody in your thoughts as we continue to navigate this very challenging time for our community.

Search operations continue starting about 06:00 this morning. We -- we started putting boots on the ground. We have increased our number of personnel that are -- are navigating the -- the really challenging shores along the bank line, but we are continuing to make progress from west to east as we -- as we continue operations.

What -- what we really need from y'all is to really help us get the word out. We know that -- that people want to volunteer, but what we're starting to see is we're starting to see personal drones that are flying. With these personal drones that are flying, that is a danger to aircraft, which then risk -- which risk then further operations.

So, if you could, please pass the communication along that we need to keep these drones, these personal drones out of the sky. We -- we have drones and assets flying. We want to continue to do that.

For volunteers and donations, we do have a phone number, 830-465-4794. We can give you that number after, but if you want to volunteer, if you have donations, please contact that number and they will help get everything out.

We have families who need to be reunited and we're -- and we are continuously making effort to make -- to get -- to make sure that our families are reunited. We want to continue to work together with our community. We appreciate everybody here. And we want to make sure that we stay united.

We're going to -- I'm going to let the -- the mayor wants to say a few words and then I will take a couple questions after the mayor.

JOE HERRING, MAYOR OF KERRVILLE, TEXAS: Again, thank you for being here. You know, I'm old enough to remember Fred Rogers. And he one time said, during a crisis, look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.

[11:15:16]

In Kerrville, those helpers, there's a city staff, county personnel, state agencies, and federal agencies. The entire Kerrville City Council is on site today. We're doing everything we can.

Let me repeat something I said yesterday. In our Emergency Operations Center, it's not a bunch of different teams. It's one team. Our goal is to rescue those in peril and find those who are lost.

If you are interested in donating to help those families who've been affected, you can visit the Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country. They've set up a portal for donations. And I understand our community, our state, and the world have been responding. Thank you.

Kerrville's branch of the Salvation Army has been designated as our official partner for volunteer coordination and in-kind donations. They can be reached at another very similar to what you just heard, 830-465-4797.

Also, we have a website for volunteers to register a different website. It's tcr.communityos.org. It's important to follow the City of Kerrville's Facebook page for updates.

If you follow social media and are interested in such things, I may be too old to tell you this, but there is a hashtag. It's hashtag, KerrUnited. That's what we are. We're united to help those who are grieving and to find those who are lost.

And now we'll open up to questions. I cannot answer operational questions, but I'm going to ask the -- the City Manager to come back up.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm not sure who can answer this, but we just talked with business owners who are very concerned not only for themselves, but also for employees about how are they going to pay their mortgage, how are they going to pay their electricity. They've been having people reach out to them about their bills and they're terrified that in the middle of all this, they're going to get cut off or evicted.

RICE: We are working through everything right now. You know, currently, our biggest focus is to making sure that we get families reunited with their loved ones. And so we are not going to stop until we are able to get those families reunited.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. Rice -- Mr. Rice, there's a question for both you and the Chair. There could be a massive operation now in the Center Point. Is that where we're seeing bodies recovered at this moment?

RICE: We are seeing -- we are seeing bodies recovered all over -- up and down. So, as we make our way east to west, we have the entire pretty much span of operations. We broke it down into grids so we can -- we can recover those bodies. So, yes, it is a -- a full operation.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've answered this morning.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. Rice. Mr. Rice.

RICE: Yes. One more --one more question.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. Well, one of the questions that still hasn't been answered three days into this is despite T.V. (INAUDIBLE) warning on July 2nd, July 3rd, that something like this could have happened if (INAUDIBLE) existed.

Why that information didn't get down to the camps and why they weren't evacuated? Can you answer this now?

RICE: That -- that is a great question. But again, we want to make sure that we continue to focus. We still have 11 missing children that we want to get reunited with our families. Until we can get -- until we can get reunited with our family -- with the families, we are not -- we are not going to stop -- we are not going to stop until we do. So, thank you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One more follow-up question. Sir, was any emergency alert given out on the 4th that morning of? Did anyone --

SANCHEZ: We have been listening to officials here in Kerr County, Texas. We just heard there from the sheriff, the mayor, and the city manager.

Clearly, the news that no one wanted to receive, the death toll as was anticipated rising here in Central Texas as a result of historic floods.

We just learned there from the sheriff, Larry Leitha, that 21 children have now been confirmed killed just here in Kerr County, along with 38 adults. That brings the death toll just in Kerr County alone, to 59, 59 people. And across the state of Texas, that number is actually higher. It's closer to at least 67 given a number of deaths in neighboring counties.

The sheriff, they're also revealing that a dozen plus adults that they've recovered, cadavers that they've recovered remain unidentified as well as some four children. They are hoping to get them identified to allow their loved ones to learn of what happened.

[11:20:07]

We've also heard from the sheriff that here at Camp Mystic 11, 11 campers at this all-girls camp remain missing. They are young children, some as young as 9 to 10 years old. We also understand that one counselor is unaccounted for. So, a dozen people from Camp Mystic still unaccounted for.

Again, just a -- a devastating update there from officials here in Kerr County, 59 people. And that death toll again is expected to rise notably as they were speaking. We could hear thunder here behind us and it has started pouring again slower now than it was earlier this morning, but we are anticipating more rain and that, of course, makes things more difficult for rescue crews.

We understand that something like 400 first responders are now in the scene along with dozens of boats, canines and air support as well.

There was a question about how people in this area were not alerted sooner that this wall of water up to 24 feet from Guadalupe River was heading in their direction. Officials there saying that they didn't want to get into the details at this point, that those were valid questions that they would look forward to answering, but they said that they didn't want to go that direction as family members are out there still trying to figure out what happened to their loved ones.

Let's go back -- let's go ahead and go back to Jason Pack. He's a former FEMA external affairs officer, retired FBI supervisory agent.

Jason, wondering what you made of the comments that you heard there.

PACK: Well, it's definitely tough news to hear, but from a crisis communication standpoint, they're out there trying to give you the latest that they know. We talked earlier, Boris, about those grid searches they were doing. They confirmed they were doing those in the whole swath of the Guadalupe, not just in Kerr County but all the way down the length of where the flooding happened. So, you have that piece of information.

Another interesting piece of information and things that sometimes happen in these disasters is people want to call and help. And so they've gotten ahead of that. They've set up this volunteer donation coordination, it sounds like that the Salvation Army is the -- in Texas, there is the coordinating arm or that.

That's going to do a couple things. You've got people calling looking for missing people into the police department there, but you also have people calling in wants to help. And so that ties up those emergency lines and delays -- could delay first responder help.

So good on them for getting the -- the voluntary and the donations off to a voluntary agency able to coordinate that. That allows them to focus on the task at hand. And that's finding these 11 missing children and the one counselor from Camp Mystic.

And as you mentioned in other parts of the state, other victims who have died as we knew yesterday Governor Abbott listed some 18 to 20 counties I think in that state that declaration that he submitted to FEMA through -- to the president for an expedited declaration. So, hopefully, we'll hear more about that today.

SANCHEZ: Jason, thank you so much for giving us your thoughts on this.

We have much more still to come on this historic flooding in Central Texas and more on President Trump's response to the devastation here as teams on the ground, as you just heard, continue to search for survivors and hope for a miracle.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:25:53]

SANCHEZ: We're continuing to track the breaking news from here in Hunt, Texas in Kerr County, where officials have just given us an update on the number of fatalities as a result of historic flooding that hit the area some 48 hours ago.

Officials updating us. The death toll now at 59 in Kerr County, approximately 67 fatalities across the state of Texas, including 21 children, 11, campers that remain missing here at Camp Mystic, along with one counselor. The effort to find them is underway right now.

I want to go to Jeff Zeleny who is tracking all of this from the nation's capital for us. And -- and, Jeff, there have been a lot of questions about how the Trump administration's view of emergency response would wind up guiding what we would see here, given that the president has specifically said that he wants to do away with FEMA.

And if there isn't a federally guided response to disasters like this, it's unclear exactly what a local response would look like. Right now, obviously, the priority is finding any signs of life.

Nevertheless, there are a lot of questions about the resources that are going to be available to these communities to help in that process.

ZELENY: Boris, there are many questions and the Trump administration is just beginning to answer those as the local officials there were updating us on the latest death toll.

The president posted on Truth Social that he has just signed that federal disaster declaration. I'll read just a part of it.

He said, "I just signed a major disaster declaration for Kerr County, Texas, to ensure our brave first responders immediately have the resources they need."

He goes on to say, "These families are enduring an unimaginable tragedy with many lives lost, many still missing."

But, Boris, you are right, the central questions here that the Trump administration is going to see in real time. The plans that he's been talking about for several months, and that is effectively eliminating the -- the FEMA program and giving some of the funding to states to handle this locally.

That is adding one more thing, if you will, onto their plate. The -- the big bill that was passed this week that is now signed into a law is already handing some Medicaid provisions, some food assistance programs onto the state. So, this is one more thing in terms of emergency disaster relief. And central questions also are facing the administration for many other disaster areas.

[11:30:20]

There was a disaster a few months ago in Arkansas that initially was not granted a federal funding than it was. Some questions in Missouri from some funding. So, many local officials have been wondering how the Trump administration is going to respond. But in this case, the president almost immediately signing that disaster declaration, which really unlocks federal funds.

So, we are certainly going to see in the coming hours and days the administration respond to this. The Homeland Security Secretary, Kristi Noem, is on the ground there in Texas.

We will see if the president decides to take a trip. At this moment, he is spending his holiday weekend at his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey. But I'm told he's keeping an eye on these developments. But again, now with that disaster declaration in, there are questions after the recovery and the search and rescue mission ends. Many questions for this administration. There's no question, Boris.

SANCHEZ: Yeah, certainly breaking with the last 40 years or so of emergency management, at least from a federal perspective. Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much.

I want to bring in Meteorologist Tyler Mauldin. Tyler, we were speaking this morning about the forecast and how there is rain coming to this area. We've seen it in bands coming. We also heard significant thunderstrikes as well.

Talk to us about where things stand right now in the forecast. Is there still a risk at this hour for these crews that are frantically trying to find any sign of life?

TYLER MAULDIN, CNN METEOROLOGIST: We still have the risk for additional showers and thunderstorms in the area, Boris. We have a flood watch in effect for the area until early afternoon. In addition, we do have those showers and thunderstorms meandering around, one of which just impacted you. We are going to see more of that to come as we begin to see breaks in the cloud cover. We see the thermometer rise and we reach our afternoon high of 90 to 92 degrees.

Boom, you get those thunderstorms during the heat of the day. We are going to press repeat for tomorrow and it's not until probably Tuesday, Boris, that finally some drier air comes in and we can say goodbye to this rain machine.

SANCHEZ: And Tyler, there's something counterintuitive here about how all of this happened because Texas had been going through significant drought or at least drought conditions before the storms that caused this arrived. How did that contribute to the flooding?

MAULDIN: You're right, it is counterintuitive because you would think that an area that is extremely dry is in an exceptional drought, really needs that water and would soak up the water. But actually the opposite happens when you have an area that is as dry as central Texas has been. When the soil is this arid, it essentially acts like concrete. It's not porous. It doesn't want to soak in the water. Instead, the water sits on top of that dry land as if it is concrete.

So, it has a hard time soaking up water. And when you do have an exceptional drought, it only takes a couple of inches to cause standing water. Therefore, when we start talking about approximately a foot of rainfall over just a few hours, that of course is going to lead to some historic flooding.

SANCHEZ: Tyler Mauldin, thank you so much for breaking that down for us. Jeff, as we await word on any potential rescues, as the Lieutenant Governor here in Texas put it, any potential miracles, we are waiting to find out if we'll see a visit from President Donald Trump. Obviously, would be in line given the size and scale of this disaster.

ZELENY: There's no doubt, Boris. We will certainly be watching for that. And in any case, the administration is certainly following this very careful.

We're also following another big story this morning. As Trump signed his mega bill into law, the curtain is opening on the midterm election campaign. We hit the trail in Iowa, where Democrats are already trying to seize on the moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:38:56]

ZELENY: The midterm elections are 16 months away, but President Trump's mega bill is already shaping the competitive races that will help decide control of Congress. The big question, will his legislation help Republicans or Democrats? This week, I went to Iowa, a state that could be the test case for that very question.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZELENY (voice-over): The sound of the gavel.

REP. MIKE JOHNSON, (R-LA) SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: The motion is adopted.

(APPLAUSE)

ZELENY (voice-over): And the stroke of the pen.

(APPLAUSE)

ZELENY (voice-over): Marked the unofficial opening of the 2026 midterm election campaign. And the race to define President Trump's landmark legislation.

DONALD TRUMP (R), U.S. PRESIDENT: Look forward, fellas. Look forward and just say what it is, because it's the most popular bill ever signed in the history of our country, whether you're military or anybody else.

ZELENY (voice-over): That bold assertion will be litigated over the next year, as Republicans fight to maintain control of Congress and Democrats seize on broad public skepticism over the law and try to lead their party back to power.

[11:40:00]

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D) MINORITY LEADER: After Project 2025 comes Project 2026.

ZELENY (voice-over): The history books are filled with big presidential priorities leading to big fallout at the ballot box. From Clinton's economic plan in 1993 to Bush's Social Security Reform effort in 2005 to Obama's healthcare debate in 2009 and Trump's failed attempt to repeal it in 2017.

The President and his party often paying the price, a point not lost on Trump as he sought to defend the laws, sweeping tax cuts, and immigration spending.

TRUMP: Not one Democrat voted for us, and I think we use it in the campaign that's coming up, the midterms, because we got to beat him.

ZELENY (voice-over): The President started his victory lap in Iowa, a state that's delivered him big wins in all three of his campaigns. It will now be one of many places to measure political fallout from the law.

As Democrats eye two competitive House races and target Republican Senator Joni Ernst, whose comment about Medicaid cuts in the bill.

SEN. JONI ERNST (R-IA): We all are going to die.

ZELENY (voice-over): Still reverberates. At a Democratic rally, these signs spell out the party's argument for how the law benefits the wealthy at the expense of working-class Americans.

JENNIFER KONFRST (D) IOWA STATE REPRESENTATIVE: Iowans are fed up. They are angry and they are ready to fight.

ZELENY (voice-over): Jennifers Konfrst the Iowa House Democratic leader is running for one of those congressional seats now in Republican hands.

ZELENY (on camera): What worries you the most about this bill?

KONFRST: It's healthcare access. That's what I'm hearing everywhere I go. I'll say, what keeps you up at night? It's always, I'm scared I'm going to lose my hospital.

ZELENY: Does the road to a congressional majority for Democrats run right here through this district?

KONFRST: Without question. If you want to get to the majority in Congress, you have to come through the third Congressional district in Iowa. This is one of the lowest hanging fruits when it comes to flipping a seat.

ZELENY (voice-over): It's an open question, just how competitive races like this will ultimately become in all corners of the country, as Trump takes the leading role in selling the GOP agenda.

TRUMP: I know for a fact they're saying the last two weeks there has never been anything like it as far as winning, winning, winning.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZELENY: So, our panel is back now. The president says winning, winning, winning. But Laura, Democrats also see an opportunity in this bill. What are they seizing on particularly in this massive, sprawling legislation?

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, as you highlighted there, I mean, it's the impact on health care, the cuts that Americans are potentially going to see. And yes, the Medicaid cuts may not occur until after the midterm elections, but they are going to see some changes more upfront, potentially as early as this year, 2025. Other social safety net cuts like food stamps, they could see some impacts to their ability to access insurance under the Affordable Care Act as early as this year, if not before the midterms next year.

And we're already seeing some rural hospitals send out warning signals saying that they may have to scale back or cut access because of the fact that they're going to be limited in terms of resources and funding they have. So, there's a very real chance Democrats think that Americans are going to start feeling some of the impacts of these bills, specifically on health care before the midterms, and they're going to try to seize on that.

ZELENY: And the timing is very strategic. The tax cuts are immediate, SNAP and Medicaid is later, obviously by design. But Marianna, as you are up on the Hill for every minute of this legislation, Democrats obviously think they have an opening.

But when you look at the roll call vote, so instructive here in terms of who voted no and where these votes came from, obviously there's just a handful of Republicans serving in districts that Kamala Harris won. There used to be so many crossovers, but when you take a look at this, obviously Senator Susan Collins of Maine voted no. Mike Lawler, Republican from New York, voted yes. Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican for Pennsylvania, also in a Harris district, voted no.

What do you think is the realistic pickup opportunities here for Democrats? I noticed in Hakeem Jeffries' long speech, he was reading specifically from some of these districts.

MARIANNA SOTOMAYOR, WASHINGTON POST CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER: Yeah, he devoted so much time going one by one, just highlighting stories of constituents who are worried about a number of these cuts. And those are going to be the districts that Democrats are targeting. A number of those that Trump won by just a couple of points.

And I will say, House Republican leadership has been very honest about the fact that Republicans should have voted for this bill because it was Trump who got Republican lawmakers over the finish line this last election. So, Democrats are cognizant of that. Of course, someone like Brian Fitzpatrick just maybe made Democrats' life a little harder to win that seat.

He is incredibly vulnerable. He is representing one of those Kamala Harris districts, as you mentioned. But then you look at Don Bacon. He's retiring, obviously, in Nebraska. That is a seat where a lot of Republican campaign strategists say it's going to be really hard to find a candidate there.

ZELENY: The blue dot, as they call it.

SOTOMAYOR: Exactly. The blue dot. He, of course, voted for this bill. That could have, you know, influenced him to -- to step aside early. It's not something that his constituents will necessarily reward him for.

[11:45:01]

But then you have someone like David Valadao out in California. He is the Republican with the highest rate of constituents who actually benefit from Medicaid. Of course, these cuts, as we mentioned, are going to go into effect after the midterms. But they're already hammering him out there. And it's likely that that's only going to continue.

ZELENY: So, clearly, this is starting off in a fairly unpopular place. If you look at polling that was taken before the bill was fully formed, but it gives you sort of a baseline here, there was wide opposition. "Washington Post," "Pew," "Fox News," "Quinnipiac" all agree that there is an uphill climb for Republicans to sell this bill.

Tam, as you watch this, and we've seen this in history before, I was thinking back to President Obama saying, if you like your doctor, you can keep him. Is the Trump version of we're not cutting Medicaid, is that similar to that? Or what do you think the burden and challenge here is for President Trump to sell this?

TAMARA KEITH, NPR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I think that the real challenge is that this starts underwater. If you go and look at the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was President Trump's achievement in 2017, his big tax cut then, that stayed unpopular. Democrats were able to characterize that as a tax cut for the rich. But there weren't cuts accompanying it.

But there weren't cuts accompanying it. There weren't cuts to social services and other programs accompanying it. If you go back to the Bush tax cuts, they were very strategic about not wanting to attach any spending cuts or any pain to the tax cuts.

In this case, Republicans purposely attached cuts that people could ultimately feel to the tax cuts. So, you have the benefits of tax cuts that many people won't even notice because a lot of people don't pay federal income taxes. And then you attach that to a very tangible cut to health care potentially for people. And it -- it is a hole that will be difficult to dig out of just simply because of the way the bill was structured.

ZELENY: I mean, we're obviously going to be learning so much more of what is in this bill in the months and years to come. But food assistance is something that is clear. I spent some time recently at a Missouri food bank, was struck by just the need and seniors and things.

Laura, what is your sense now, as the federal government is beginning for the first time to essentially hand off SNAP programs to states that have so many other burdens as well? How real of an impact is this in real life and politically?

BARRON-LOPEZ: I think it'll have a significant impact in real life. And a lot of those Republican led states are going to have to also put forward more of the resources and the funding for these programs, right? Not just for SNAP, but also for Medicaid, for the states that expanded Medicaid as well.

Because this is one big change, I think, compared to years ago, which is that more Republican led states expanded Medicaid, expanded these benefits under the social safety net than previously. So, yes, cutting some of these aspects of the social safety net has been something that Republicans have talked about for a while. I mean, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan talked about this years ago.

But back then there were more Democratic voters that were impacted by it. But now there are a significant number of Republican voters that are impacted by this. So, I think that that is something that, you know, a number of Republicans, like Tom Tillis, were warning about saying that this was essentially a betrayal of a number of their voters, that this was something that Republicans promised that they weren't going to do, and then they turned around and they did it.

ZELENY: Obviously, we'll be watching this for the next 16 months, but very quick, what is one or two Senate races that you are watching that you think may determine if Senate Democrats can win back control?

SOTOMAYOR: North Carolina. I mean, Tom Tillis stepping aside and being very honest about the effect that this bill is going to have. I mean, that is absolutely, I would say, the number one race to watch.

ZELENY: And eyes in Texas as well, if Joni Ernst runs. So, many races to cover. Guys, thank you very much for being here this morning. And Elon Musk threatened to launch a new political party if Trump's big bill passed. This weekend, he says he's really doing it. Will he follow through and will it make a difference?

That's next.

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[11:53:55]

ZELENY: Elon Musk shook up Washington this week when he renewed his attacks on President Trump's landmark legislation and said he'll form a new political party. Just yesterday, telling his followers on X, quote, "You want a new political party? You shall have it. Today, the America Party is formed."

Musk said the party would compete next year and take on runaway government spending. Now, the idea of a new political party is relatively popular with Americans. 58% of adults last year thought Democrats and Republicans were doing such a poor job, a third major party was needed.

But with winner-take-all elections and massive amounts of resources needed in a country this size, it remains an uphill climb to be anything more than a spoiler. And only a few candidates have influenced the electorate in a measurable way.

Like Ross Perot's run in 1992, where his populist, independent campaign won nearly 20% of the vote.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROSS PEROT, INDEPENDENT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will not run as either a Democrat or a Republican, because I will not sell out to anybody but to the American people. And I will sell out to them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[11:55:02]

ZELENY: To perhaps the most consequential third-party presidential candidate ever, Ralph Nader in 2000, winning more than 2.8 million votes, and enough in Florida to tip the balance. And in 2016, Jill Stein, a perennial Green Party hopeful, winning crucial voters in that tight race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Elon Musk, the world's richest man, might have the resources to start his own America Party. But as history shows, that could be the easy part.

Before we go, if you'd like to help those affected by the tragic flooding in Texas, you can go to cnn.com/impact. There you can be connected to the charities on the ground in Texas. You can also text FLOOD to 70-70-70.

That's all for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. You can follow me on Instagram or X @jeffzeleny. And follow the show @insidepolitics. If you ever miss an episode, you can catch up wherever you get your podcasts. Search for Inside Politics.

Up next, STATE OF THE UNION with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. Dana's guests include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Texas Congressman Joaquin Castro.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

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