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Democrats Declare "War" Over GOP Redistricting Efforts; High Stakes Battle For Trump's Endorsement In Texas GOP Primary; Gallup: Sanders, AOC Are Most Popular Figures In Poll. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired August 05, 2025 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[12:30:45]

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST: Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered Texas law enforcement to locate, arrest, and return to the House chamber all Democratic legislators who have fled the state. Texas Democrats say the threat of arrest will not deter them.

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REP. RAMON ROMERO JR. (D-TX): There's folks saying that we walked out. And I think everyone behind me will say we're standing up. And as Texans would say, we're standing tall. There's others that are saying and warning us that they're going to arrest us or make us pay fines. I'll pay that price for America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: My excellent reporters are back. Look, this has happened twice before this century. Ultimately, Democrats came back. Ultimately, Republicans got what they wanted. Usually often when the spotlight is turned, it's not trained on them anymore, the media loses attention. They get a lot of pressure to come back home. And this time they're facing the threat of fines, jail, and arrest. How long do you think that Democrats can keep this going in Texas?

AARON BLAKE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Well, I was actually looking at previous walkouts, and we've seen these in Texas before, but we've also seen them in states like Indiana, Oregon. The longest such walkout was about six months. But if you go next to that, it's 43 days. So these things tend to get resolved at some point.

Sometimes there's some minor concessions that are made, which was the case in Texas a few years ago when this was about voting rights. But it's a difficult situation for Democrats. You know, a lot of this is about the politics of it. How is this going to play with people? Will people view these lawmakers as abdicating their jobs? Or will this train focus on this very ugly process of gerrymandering, which people don't like?

RAJU: Plus, there's a flooding, there's a flooding legislation, flood relief legislation that is awaiting action. Republicans intentionally put that after the redistricting issue to force these lawmakers to come back and deal with it.

BLAKE: Right. And so do -- do people view those Democrats as -- as withholding that flood money? Or do they view Republicans as playing games with this money? A lot of this is to be determined. But I would say, you know, this for Democrats is a difficult issue. And when we talk about these kinds of efforts at retribution like we see in California, it's very difficult for Democrats because they have such little control over redistricting across the country. Republicans control about twice as many seats and drawing those seats.

And so if you're Democrats and you see what Republicans are doing in Texas, it's very difficult for you to do that in other states because a lot of them have redistricting commissions. A lot of them are already very extensively gerrymandered, like Illinois and Maryland. And so to the extent this becomes an arms race, I think Republicans really have the advantage here.

RAJU: OK. And you teed up this next graphic very well, Aaron Blake. We didn't plan this out. But here are the -- when you look at Democratic states where there are opportunities versus Republicans. As you heard Katie -- Katie Porter, the candidate for governor, just told me moments ago, she supports moving ahead in California and trying to redraw the maps there. But it is complicated, on what you're seeing there. There are 15 states with a Democratic trifecta, meaning they control the governor, they control the state legislature as well.

But there are just eight of those states actually have Republican congressmen in their delegation, meaning they could try to squeeze out those Republican seats. But of those eight, just three, just three are states that do not have an independent or bipartisan commission that would require some sort of constitutional amendment and the like. And then when you look at Republican control, there are so many more opportunities.

They could try to squeeze out more state -- more seats in some other -- a number of other states, as you can see on your map right there. There are 22 states that have full Republican control right now. Twelve of those have Democrats who are in the congressional delegation, which shows you this is an arms race of sorts.

SEUNG MIN KIM, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right.

RAJU: Democrats can try to respond, but Republicans continue to do it, and they have more opportunities to do it.

KIM: Right, right. A lot of this debate, it's really fascinating, has reminded me of the debate over campaign finance reform. I mean, this is something that Republicans on policy support looser restrictions. Democrats do not. But once those looser restrictions come into place, Democrats are -- are facing this dilemma of, do we stand on our principles? Do we stand on our moral high ground? Or do we try to, you know, engage and win races? And that's -- and that's why your interview with Katie Porter was really fascinating, because you pressed her several times on that, you know, are you going, you know, are you going back on what you've previously supported?

[12:35:04]

But I think Democrats have realized now that they really can't, you know, like, politics is a dirty sport, and you've got to play -- you've got to play the game by the rules that are being set. You saw that kind of from Kathy Hochul yesterday in New York. And I think that Democrats, Democratic leaders, Democratic voters, aren't really having moral qualms at this moment, considering what's happening in Texas.

RAJU: And Trump is dead set for this to happen in Texas. Let's listen to what he said this morning on CNBC.

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DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They did it to us, you know, those blue states that you're talking about. You know, somebody gave a good example. In Massachusetts, I got, I think, 41 percent of the vote. It's a very, you know, blue state. And yet it's got 100 percent of Congress.

It's all gerrymandered. And we have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas. I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know. And we are entitled to five more seats.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: So he had the most votes in Texas, but not the highest percentage of votes in Texas. But nevertheless, facts be damned, this is all being -- this all happening mid-decade right now because Trump is fearful about losing the House and wants these maps redrawn so he can keep power in the United States House.

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: I mean, in every single conversation I'm having with people at the White House when we talk about the midterms, they recognize they are going to pull out all the stops. And -- and this is one way, and I know the President himself, I mean, he sees this as an opportunity. He's like, why wouldn't we do this? We can do it. We might as well go and take it, of course, obviously ignoring a lot of the politics around that.

And part of this as well is, I mean, and just to bring into the bigger context, at least where Trump comes in, because we know that the President had a call with some of these Democrats, or excuse me, the Texas Republicans last month to bring this up, saying he's throwing his full support behind this, wanting to take five seats, is because he knows, especially if, you know, he flirted on CNBC during that interview about potentially running again, but after, once the midterms hit, he's laying down.

RAJU: Which he can't do, by the way.

TREENE: He can't, against the Constitution. And he still flirted with, you know, I'd like to run, but I probably won't. But everyone in the White House, too, all of his top aides recognize he is on a very tight clock to push through all of his policies before the midterms begin. And he doesn't like that. He wants to be able to do what he's doing now for not only his whole four years, but potentially, you know, carry on the movement beyond that.

RAJU: Yes.

TREENE: And so that's why this is such a huge focus. I wouldn't be surprised if we see other similar, you know, maybe not what's happening in Texas, but other similar maneuvers --

RAJU: Yes.

TREENE: -- by his political team as we get closer to that.

RAJU: What's remarkable is there are already so many, so few competitive districts in this midterm election because of all the gerrymandering. And with more gerrymandering, there'll be even fewer competitive district in the general election next year, which is why this fight at this moment, so key how does this turn out because that could ultimately determine the next majority.

[12:37:54]

All right, how far would a Republican go for a Donald Trump endorsement for one Senate candidate? Oh, that could be 4,500 miles.

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RAJU: No state understands a Hail Mary better than Texas. And when it comes to the fight for a Donald Trump endorsement in the state Senate race, Ken Paxton is ready to shoot his shot. My new reporting today with my colleagues Sarah Ferris and Jeff Zeleny track the Texas attorney general 4,500 miles from home all the way to the Scottish village of Turnberry while the President was there.

The two did not play a round of golf together, and it's actually not even clear Trump was expecting to run into Paxton. But our reporting shows that, quote, the two crossed paths, according to three people familiar with this exchange, and spoke privately for several minutes about the Texas race. Notably, public and private polls do show Paxton with an advantage over the 22-year veteran Senator John Cornyn.

My panel is back. I mean, this is a very difficult decision for -- for Donald Trump, who's in the middle of this, because there's some MAGA allies who are very much in line with Ken Paxton, want him to get behind Ken Paxton. But Republican leaders are furiously supporting John Cornyn.

They are fearful that if Ken Paxton wins his primary, it will cost them a critical Senate race when they're trying to hang on to the majority.

KIM: And, look, Scotland is lovely this time of year, clearly. But I think the President, he has said several times that he likes both of the men in this race. And don't forget, Wesley Hunt is still, the congressman from Texas, is also still weighing a decision. He recently flew on Air Force One with the President. And Republican leaders clearly behind John Cornyn here.

And John Cornyn, obviously, has tried to make himself into an ally of the President, showing his voting record, showing all the time --

RAJU: Showing, before you keep going, just showing all these tweets on your screen about him -- him, everything that he's doing to help Donald Trump. It's been -- there's been an increasing focus of John Cornyn's.

KIM: Right, exactly. And you and I both know, Manu, when we have talked to John Cornyn, especially during the first Trump term, he did tend to be a little bit more candid with what the, you know, then first-term President Donald Trump, was doing in the White House. And Ken Paxton has really shaped himself into a MAGA ally. But you're right, you know, the public and private polling shows that if Paxton is a nominee, the Democrats do have a true shot in that -- true shot in that race, and that is a risk that Republican leaders do not want to take right now.

RAJU: And this already become it's an incredibly vicious primary. They've been going back and forth on a whole host of things. Actually, Cornyn just posted this on social media just moments ago after our story published. He said, Memo to Ken Paxton. Hey, Ken, are you in the office today? It's kind of important. Let me know if you need the address. Get off the golf course in Scotland and do your job here.

[12:45:09]

But the concern among the Republican leaders is that this primary is even happening to begin with, because it's going to cost them a ton of money and resources, potentially to get Cornyn over the finish line of this primary, money that could be going to other critical states.

BLAKE: Yes, there's no question, and we always refer back to the stat on Texas, which is that Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since the early 90s. So the idea that Democrats are going to get over the line in the 2026 elections, even if it's very good for them, might seem far-fetched. Now, their chances probably get better if it's Ken Paxton, if that race starts to look close, as we've seen some races in recent years look close, the one with Beto O'Rourke, to some extent, when Ted Cruz has been on the ballot.

But this has -- this has been, you know, a situation where, you're right, you don't want to have that headache. You don't want to have to worry about this at all, because it's -- i0t's Texas, and this should be a state that's in the bank for you.

RAJU: And yesterday, the former governor, Rick Perry, endorsed John Cornyn in this race, and he told "The Houston Chronicle," some ask, why not a new face? Because experience matters, and in this Senate race, character matters even more. When he makes a promise, whether it's to his constituents or the Almighty, he keeps it. Of course, there have been a lot of personal issues involving Ken Paxton, and messy divorces going through. He was impeached back in 2023.

He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. So a lot of problems. You cover the White House. I should say, Paxton has denied a lot of those allegations. But you cover the White House. What are you hearing about how Trump is going to handle this? Stay out of it? TREENE: For now. He's not going to want to put his finger on the scale unless he knows that candidate is going to win. That's how the President operates, particularly when it comes to endorsements. He finds it to be a personal embarrassment if he gets behind a candidate and they end up losing.

And so, we have to see how this plays out. I mean, could he potentially be persuaded? I don't think a couple of minutes on the golf course in Scotland is going to do the job. Could he be persuaded to, you know, talk to his team more and try to get them on his side? Sure. But I have a very hard time believing he would make any decision at this point when it's still so unclear who is actually going to be successful because it makes him look bad.

RAJU: But it's really clear that both sides, Cornyn and Paxton, view Trump's endorsement as essentially critical. It could tip the scales one way or the other. We'll see what the president decides to do.

All right. Next, who's the most popular political figure in America? And who's the least popular? The answer to those questions are next.

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[12:51:59]

RAJU: Here's something Americans can agree on. They really like Pope Leo XIV. Gallup looked at how Americans feel about 14 prominent newsmakers. And the first American pope is by far the most famous. The Pontiff has a 46-point net favorability rating. Only two others were in positive territory. That includes the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

The other most popular political figure, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She did get a negative favorability rating, but far less negative than everyone else you see on that list. The most unpopular, Elon Musk. Just about every Democrat, it seems, who was polled dislikes him. My panel is back. You know, I like the Pope too. I wish he was a Cubs fan. I'd be happy -- I'd be happy about that. I know that.

But he at least is a Bears fan, so we have that. So that's good. But interesting, the progressives here, Bernie Sanders, by 11 points, his favorability rating is above water. AOC below water by four points, but still higher than pretty much every other politician polled.

KIM: Yes, we were just talking during the break about how Bernie Sanders tends to poll very well in terms of favorability in these rankings. And what I find interesting is I would not, you know, underestimate the factor in this by the fact that he gets out there.

You know, it's not, it's not even an election year. He's obviously not running for any other office beyond the Senate job that he has right now. But he's, in a couple of days, his political operation says he's going to West Virginia and North Carolina. West Virginia, obviously not a Democratic territory, but his team has always wanted to make the case that his message really resonates within these deep red states as well. And he's gone to Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana. He's not sticking to those really progressive states.

And I would say that might be a factor as to why he's well-known, obviously aside from his national run, and also why he polls so well.

RAJU: Yes, and what about the Trump universe? This is the, they tested out some key figures there, the favorability rating. Everyone's underwater, but the person who is least underwater is RFK Jr. by five points.

TREENE: So when I first saw this, looking at these numbers, I was very surprised by that. But then I remember the MAHA movement, particularly among middle-aged women, for example. I mean, I remember when we were covering that Donald Trump Jr. and others in Trump world, you know, they were trying to secure his endorsement.

The reason they thought he was going to be so powerful is because they were like, he actually polls really well with a lot of people that we are having trouble, women, of course, trying to bring into the fold. And even though a lot of people, and if they're listening, they're probably going to be mad at me at the White House, don't believe this. A lot of other people I know who are close to Trump say they think he did help a lot with winning the race.

So I think that probably with RFK Jr. has a lot to do with it. And that's also why we've seen, even though there's been a lot of controversy around him, the President's kind of letting him do his thing because there is a lot of that where they recognize he is very popular for a lot of those policies. And he's a Kennedy. I think the Kennedy name can't go away from that.

RAJU: Yes. That does help a lot. The poll also shows this for Marco Rubio, 16 points underwater. That is pretty interesting. Trump is the same as Trump, 16 points. You'd expect Trump to be that under popular base. The poll also shows this for Marco Rubio, 16 points underwater. But Rubio, 16 points.

[12:55:13]

BLAKE: That Rubio number really jumped out at me. He's lower than Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who certainly has had a number of problems over the course of the last several months here. What you see if you dig into those numbers is that Rubio doesn't do particularly well among Republicans. It's not necessarily that, you know, independents are balking at the USAID cuts or something like that. But it's really interesting because Secretary of State is usually a pretty popular job, even when presidents are way underwater.

That's a job that's seen as a diplomat and respectable. Hillary Clinton had very good numbers ahead of her 2016 run for president when she was a Secretary of State. But for some reason, it's not working for Rubio.

RAJU: Yes. And we'll see what it means for him in 2028 as well. All right, thanks for joining Inside Politics. Great discussion. Thank you, panel. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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