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Trump Says His Super PAC Will Spend To Boost GOP In Midterms; More GOP Lawmakers Publicly Urge Miller To End Campaign; Democrats Eye Pickup Opportunity In Kansas; The Key Economic Indicator That Could Mean Recession Is Near; Expert: Bond Yields Rising To Where "Things Start To Break". Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired August 07, 2026 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00]

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: He's starting to pick it up a little bit, and remember, actually, at the beginning of the year, everyone in the White House was telling everyone who would hear it that they were going to be out, he's going to be out at least once a week, if not multiple times a week.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Can I pull on this thread a little bit, and play what I think is the most -- I've been thinking about this soundbite, like, all day, because it's not -- you mentioned political capital, you mentioned lack of investment, let's talk about actual capital, actual investment, with this sound.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: MAGA Inc., the Super PAC that you, that your allies control, has a lot of money, and a lot of people.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Not my allies, I control it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK. You and your allies.

TRUMP: $800 million.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you going to spend it?

TRUMP: You know, it's funny, nobody ever -- of course, I'm going to do.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're going to spend it in the midterms?

TRUMP: I could spend it on pretty much anything I want. I'm going to spend it for -- I'm going to help Republicans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: It's $400 million, not $800 million. Still an insane amount of money. Not necessarily, like, all in, I'm like --

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. MATTINGLY: -- we're -- I'm just going to dump it all in the midterms, like, meh.

JAMIE GANGEL, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: I wouldn't hold your breath if you're waiting for that money. I could, was the verb he used, spend it. Look, loyalty is a one-way street with him, let's see what he spends. But to go back to your point about he's not invested, what's crazy here, delusional, is the outcome of the congressional races is huge for him. So he should want to be invested if for no other reason it's in his self-interest.

MATTINGLY: That's a really, really great point. Fascinating. Shout out to Jake Sherman, did a really great job in Punchbowl, Anna and the whole team doing amazing work over there.

Well, coming up, more and more Republicans want Max Miller out, but its voters may have the final say. You'll hear from him next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:36:18]

MATTINGLY: Time is running out for Ohio Congressman Max Miller to end his re-election bid and still have his name replaced on the ballot. More and more Republican lawmakers are calling for him to do just that amid allegations of domestic abuse from Miller's ex-wife. Miller has explicitly and repeatedly denied the allegations and insists he can still win re-election.

CNN's Lauren Fox traveled to a fair in Miller's congressional district to hear what Republican voters actually think.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think running for Congress while you're being accused of this stuff, no, man. Just set it down. If you're really innocent, then be innocent. Take a few years off. You can afford it. If not, well, then deal with it and go get a real job.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I want to know the facts and hopefully we can hear the facts before voting comes up. Being a woman especially, you don't want to see somebody that is being abused and you don't want to have somebody who is an abuser be in, you know, in that spot.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I just feel like he's voted for some farm stuff that's helped us out over the years. You know, Democrats tend to not pay attention to what we need as much as farmers.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I haven't seen any actual facts or video or anything that would support her allegations, but I don't want to say that she's lying, you know. And I also -- we support Moreno. So it's really kind of a challenging situation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Reference to Moreno, obviously the Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno's daughter is the ex-wife. It's a very convoluted and frankly very sad situation that's been going on right now. Wall Street Journal reported Max Miller is going to loan his campaign $1 million. "I'm in this for the long haul. I know there are some people that are concerned about my ability to win this race right now, but I don't share that."

Anna Palmer, you talk to everybody and their mother. I don't know a lot of Republicans who want him in this race right now.

ANNA PALMER, CO-FOUNDER, PUNCHBOWL NEWS: I think that is very accurate. I think if you talk to members of the Republican Party, it's a distraction. They don't want to be having these kinds of ethics conversations. They don't believe he will probably win, and that's the biggest challenge, right?

I mean, Republicans, you look at the majority right now, it is so tight. They're going through a very difficult cycle. I mean, how much money are they going to put into a race like this when they have so many others that --

MATTINGLY: This is a plus 11 Trump district --

PALMER: Right.

MATTINGLY: -- I think, or something plus 9, plus --

PALMER: Right. I mean, this should be a shoo-in --

MATTINGLY: Yes.

PALMER: -- for Republicans, and it just reminds me of John Boehner. Like, you know, let's just -- you've got to knock out the distraction and focus on what is actually happening.

MATTINGLY: One of the things -- one of the most fascinating comments is from a Republican senator, Husted, the other Ohio senator, wants him out, but it was Montana Senator Tim Sheehy who said, "What kind of person would treat their daughter this way? This guy is clearly a degenerate sociopath. Max should step aside. Staying this race makes it far more likely we lose the seat and hand Democrats a majority to impeach Donald Trump."

Like, Tim Sheehy's not like some guy who, like, pops off against the party on a regular basis.

GANGEL: It's also, I think, a very important comment because it straddles both worlds.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

GANGEL: He's talking about his personal behavior and what he thinks about that, and he clearly finds it credible. And then, on the other hand, they know this is a question of math. If they don't hold the House with a seat like this, this is -- these are exactly the kinds of districts, and I think he only has until Monday --

MATTINGLY: Yes.

GANGEL: -- to take his name off. Republicans want him off the ballot.

MATTINGLY: Do you get any sense that the White House is thinking about ways to push him out at this point?

[12:40:01]

TREENE: So we know that there have been phone calls between President Donald Trump --

MATTINGLY: Yes.

TREENE: -- and Miller. I know behind the scenes a lot of people just like a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill, they don't think he can win. They believe he should drop out. Now, will they come out and say that publicly? I think that's the threshold we'll see. Trump has told him, look, I don't think you're going to be able to win this race. Kind of insinuated that maybe you should bow out of this.

But until they say anything publicly, I think that would really be a key marker, at least for Miller, who I should note, when he was with Tapper the other day being interviewed, he essentially argued that he was using the Trump playbook. Saying that I'm not going to give up, you know, trying to push against these allegations, that he's going to keep going. And so, I think that would be what we see publicly from the White House will be much more stronger than what they're doing privately right now.

MATTINGLY: Yes. TikTok, for sure.

Well, up next, Democrats turn their eye to red states in their quest to take back the Senate. Could a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century be the sleeper race to watch?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:45:25]

MATTINGLY: A new state has entered the chat. Red Kansas, they're slightly less red. If you look at the map here, right there. Red Kansas, still red. The Cook Political Report has added it to the Senate battleground map. Now, likely rather than solid Republican, that does actually, it's a distinction with a difference in the world that we live in.

And that's after Methodist megachurch minister Adam Hamilton won the Senate primary this week. He faces incumbent Senator Roger Marshall.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADAM HAMILTON, METHODIST MEGACHURCH MINISTER: America is more than a place. It's an idea that all are created equal, endowed by their creator, with certain unalienable rights. Those rights exist not just for the wealthy few, but for all. Our leaders seem to have forgotten that, and instead created a democracy that's for sale to the highest bidder, while Kansans can't afford gas, groceries, or health care.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: For Democrats who need to gain a net four seats, Kansas is a long shot. But Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tells our good friend Burgess Everett over at Semafor that he's eyeing red territory, including Kansas, quote, "That's how you build a majority, by expanding the map."

All right, let's bring up the map right now. Because obviously, we talk a lot about North Carolina, Dems see a very clear pickup. Ohio, now a toss-up as well. Michigan, we've talked constantly about Michigan. I don't want to talk about Michigan right now. But Iowa also, one the Democrats are keying right now.

Kansas, and then also Montana, where they're trying to figure out a way to get the Democrat out and have the independent and there's a lot of machinations right now. What do we need to know about the Senate map?

PALMER: I'm just kind of laughing a little bit. Like, Chuck Schumer is trying to do a little bit of dance, right?

MATTINGLY: He said Mississippi, too.

PALMER: Exactly, like --

MATTINGLY: In the end, I was like, oh, we're going to do this. OK.

PALMER: No, maybe, you had me at, but what, you know, Iowa, because actually that's a really interesting state right now --

MATTINGLY: Yes.

PALMER: -- where you have a Senate candidate who could go off the tails of the governor race there. But I think that Chuck Schumer is trying to get Republicans to spend in states. They don't have Maine in the stronghold that they thought they would. Texas is something that, you know, for decades, I feel like ever since I've been covering politics, they've been saying, oh, Texas is going to go blue.

They haven't had a statewide elected Democrat since Ann Richards. That's a long time ago. But I do think, you know, it'll be interesting. Is this going to be a wave election? I -- this is the first that I've heard of it from Chuck Schumer's mouth to hear, so I'm a little skeptical.

MATTINGLY: I mean, I will -- volunteer to go down to Mississippi and hang out in the Grove in the fall if we need to -- somebody on the ground for Ole Miss football games.

KANNO-YOUNGS: It's a good reporting assignment.

MATTINGLY: You know, it's really -- if anybody's listening. Should we take this seriously? GANGEL: I have one word which I learned a few weeks ago, wish-casting. I think Chuck Schumer is wish-casting here. That said, I do think it's interesting in these states where you're seeing -- I know you don't want to talk about Michigan, but --

MATTINGLY: Because (INAUDIBLE).

GANGEL: -- after the primary, I got, you know, my phone blew up with Democratic strategists saying Mike Rogers is going to walk away with Michigan.

MATTINGLY: Really?

GANGEL: I'm not saying that's true, but that was their concern about it. I do think this notion of independence in certain states, if that catches on, is just not for just this year, but going into the future where you have two parties where people feel the parties are being controlled by far right, far left, whatever it is, if independents start becoming a thing, I think it's worth watching.

MATTINGLY: It's a really good point. Because one of the things, like when I've traveled reporting on the country, like people hate everyone. Like if they're -- if you are a sitting lawmaker, they don't care what party you are.

KANNO-YOUNGS: Sure.

MATTINGLY: They hate you right now. Like if I'm an incumbent and I'm reading any of the reporting out there from people who are covering the economy or covering any of these places, you're saying like, oh boy, not great. Does that mean that something's going to pop that we aren't seeing right now? Or there's a race that maybe we should be paying attention to that we aren't yet?

KANNO-YOUNGS: I think that's factored into some of the sort of inter- party debates and conflicts that you've been seeing here, right? Like it's not just that there's frustration at the incumbency, but there's frustration at the establishment broadly, right, and elected officials broadly, that they don't represent their constituents, that they're not actually tuned in to the issues that matter to voters broadly.

So when we've seen, you know, the Democrats navigating these primaries with like an outsider, sort of out-of-the-government candidate versus somebody who's vetted, you know, and, you know, has run before and held office before, I think factoring into that is what you're describing, the frustration with the system more broadly.

I do think it's interesting that like after the main fallout, you are seeing, just as we get to this broad conversation, like yes, the Democrats are focusing on other states. I think you mentioned Iowa, and like --

PALMER: Yes.

KANNO-YOUNGS: -- I don't think there's a coincidence that you then had former President Obama go do an ad with Josh Turek, right, and sort of prop him up. They are trying to find these other races where they can get some wins here to try and gain some seats in the Senate.

[12:50:19]

MATTINGLY: I think 88 days? 87?

KANNO-YOUNGS: Getting closer.

MATTINGLY: All right, well, up next, is it a canary in the economic coal mine? The one factor that forced the President to back off tariffs is growing a little bit turbulent again. Could it force the President to recalculate again? I'll explain next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:55:12]

MATTINGLY: Since I'm in the chair on Inside Politics today, we had to do a segment about the 30-year treasury yield. I am super fun at parties. But listen, this actually matters to everyone. Experts watch it very closely because when this number gets too high, it can signal some very bad things could be coming for the economy, to put it in layman's terms. Right now, it's very high.

And someone else who noticed this and wrote a great story about it, Jeff Stein of NOTUS reports, on the problem in the key economic warning sign that could upend the midterms. He joins me now. He's really the only person I wanted to talk about this with. It actually convinced people to do it on TV. It's kind of amazing.

Jeff, your story is excellent. You spoke to a number of experts, like a lot of economists, a lot of people who know this stuff. And they told you bond yield is going over 5 percent, and staying there is the point -- at some point you reach a point where things start to break. Can you explain to people like what that actually means?

JEFF STEIN, REPORTER, NOTUS: Yes, so you'll remember, Phil -- and thank you for the kind words -- that about a year ago, the President imposed really high tariffs on what was called Liberation Day. And this triggered a major panic in the market, and particularly in the bond market. And it was an enormous political story because what happened at the very last minute was that the President backed down from these tariffs because of the tremors in the bond market.

Now, in the last week or so, we've had a slower sort of boil, but a similar run-up in bond yields. And we can get into what is going on there exactly. But basically, investors are having less confidence in the long-term value of the dollar. They're selling it, and that's driving up the yield on the 30 and the 10-year, which are the benchmark rates for which people use to calculate auto loans and mortgages and all kinds of really critical parts of the U.S. economy.

And even though we've had a similar run-up, you know, in the last week, to what we had last year, my impression -- and you can correct me if I'm wrong -- my impression was that I don't really think the general public quite understood how serious that was and how serious it's being taken at the high levels of the administration. We're seeing sort of a major push from various parts of the administration to make sure that that number doesn't get too high.

And the reason they're so concerned with it is because, you know, most of the very big banks should be OK, but small and medium-sized banks have lots of treasuries, and they're banking on the yield being at a certain level, that the price of these assets they hold being within a certain band. And if that gets -- if the value of the bond goes too low, the banks could be in a liquidity problem, and we could see similar problems to what we had with Silicon Valley Bank or, you know, God forbid, something even worse, you know, more akin to what we had in 2008.

So a really scary development. For now, it seems to be mostly under control, but the political and economic implications could be enormous.

MATTINGLY: Yes. I want to bring up just kind of a historical chart of the 30-year to try and explain to people. Like, you mentioned SVB, which I think is really important. I think we were competing on that story. It sucked having to compete against you. But, like, that was really -- I don't think people understood how dicey that -- that was a scary time when you were talking to administration officials about how close that was to becoming a very big problem.

You could see it back here, 2023, that spike right there right now, or 5.21, Liberation Day, 4.72. You go back into the financial crisis. '07 was the last time. It was as high as it is right now. We got, like, two minutes left. Like, what's causing it? It feels like there's a convergence of factors, but what's your sense from talking to people about what's driving it right now?

STEIN: It is very unsatisfying and frustrating to, I think, especially for, like, me and you, who love, like, sort of linear narratives. But the reality is that this is being driven by a lot of factors, and that makes it, in some ways, much more intractable for the administration than the Liberation Day tariffs, which were clearly caused. -- that bond market ripple was clearly caused by a singular event that they could just pull that lever off.

Now we have, you know, concern that the Fed is not that serious about fighting inflation, which, you know, means that the dollar will sort of devalue over time, so then people are less likely to want to hold long-term bonds. That's probably the biggest factor we've seen very recently, but also, you know, the war has increased instability in the bond market, and we're also seeing, you know, just sort of a general feeling that the administration is not that trustworthy about sort of its debt obligations.

And when people begin to get a little antsy about the sort of stability at the top of the U.S. government, that triggers investors to say, you know, maybe I'll invest in euros, maybe I'll invest in the yen, or, you know, maybe those are bad examples, but to go with something that they can feel a little more comfortable in.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

STEIN: And so they're looking elsewhere. MATTINGLY: Yes.

STEIN: And, you know, I'm sure we'll continue to talk about the sexiest topic in the global news cycle.

MATTINGLY: Trust me, like, I implore people to understand this is really important. Jeff's story's great. You should go check it out. He's just back from book leave. His book is going to be awesome whenever that's coming out.

Jeff Stein, thank you, my friend, as always, for talking through this stuff. Really appreciate it.

Thank you for joining Inside Politics. Don't miss State of the Union this Sunday. President Trump's top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, is on the program, along with Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, Abdul-El Sayed. That's Sunday at 9:00 a.m. Eastern right here on CNN.

CNN News Central starts right now.