Return to Transcripts main page

Inside Politics

New CNN Analysis Of Senate Races Most Likely To Flip Parties; Paxton: "We Need Help Now" Raising Money Against Talarico; Trump: "We Are Only Semi-Negotiating" With Iran; Sources: Trump's Top General "Looking For An Off-Ramp" From Iran War; Deadline Passes To Replace Rep. Max Miller On The Ballot. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired August 10, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: What's more likely, a Democratic senator in Texas or a Republican senator in Georgia? We have a brand- new CNN analysis.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

We are 12 weeks until Election Day, and with nearly every toss-up state primary settled, CNN is updating our analysis of the battle for the U.S. Senate. These are the nine seats most likely to flip. You see this list here ranked by likelihood. Now, to win control, Democrats must keep all their seats while flipping four more on this list.

The big change from a month ago, Texas moved up two spots to number seven, while Georgia moved down two spots to number nine. In other words, Texas is more likely to elect a Democrat to the Senate than Georgia is to elect a Republican. Now this is our analysis based on CNN's conversations with campaign strategists, candidate fundraising, polling, and the overall political environment.

I'm joined now by a terrific group of reporters here at the table, including Arlette Saenz, who worked on these rankings. Arlette, give us the big picture of what this means right now.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Democrats are still feeling very bullish about their chances to retake the Senate majority in November. But in order to do that, they will have to hold onto all of their seats and flip four Republican-held seats. That means that their plans have to go perfectly here.

I think the races where -- within themselves you saw the most change were within Maine and Michigan, right? Because Maine, they have that new Democratic candidate who's going to take on Susan Collins after Graham Platner had to bow out. Democrats are still feeling very good about their chances in Maine, and then there's Michigan, where that primary was finally settled last week.

This is the state that Republicans feel gives them their best chance of flipping a Senate seat in November. There's a lot of questions going forward about whether El-Sayed will be able to unite the party, and if Rogers can win over some of those disaffected or concerned voters. But then the biggest changes came at the very bottom of our list with Texas and Georgia. And I think that both of these states speaks to the strength of the Democratic candidates in those contests.

In Texas, you have James Talarico going up against Ken Paxton, who has a lot of scandal in his background. If you take a look at the polling there, the polling has shown that there's no clear leader in the contest. That's pretty extraordinary when you think about the fact that President Trump won that state by 14 points back in 2024.

And then in Georgia, just like in Texas, you have Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat who's a very strong fundraiser. He is up by a lot in the polling, and there's even signs that some Republicans in the states, like some local mayors, are siding with him in this race over Collins. So that is one that seems like it's in firmer territory for Jon Ossoff, and it might appear on paper.

He is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent running this cycle. He's the only one who won in a state where Trump won back in 2024. So those are kind of the dynamics of where these races stand, with those nine being the most closely that we're watching.

BASH: And if we put that back up on the screen, I think it's important to note that you started out by saying the Democrats are bullish. They're much more bullish than they were just even a few months ago, where it didn't even look like it was in the ball game for Democrats to take back the Senate. It is also possible that because so many of these are razor thin, it's who knows. I mean, who knows how it's going to go? It could go either way in a lot of these, maybe not so much in North Carolina, but you know, right now they have a very popular Democratic candidate, the Governor, Roy Cooper.

Just going back to Texas, this is remarkable if you look at just the money, because Texas is obviously a huge state, a very expensive state, in any cycle to run in. The Democrat James Talarico has raised and has cash on hand $21.5 million. Paxton, the Republican candidate in what has been red Texas has $1.8 million. And I want you to listen to what Ken Paxton did. He went on Fox and basically begged for money.

[12:05:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEN PAXTON, (R) TEXAS SENATE CANDIDATE: I'm optimistic that they'll come in soon because as we're raising money, we're working our way back into October, which is where we can spend money and we're trying to work our way back to September. But we need help now because James Talarico has been spending $3 or $4 million a week on TV for the last month. So, I want to compete.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JEFF MASON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, BLOOMBERG: It's just extraordinary to hear a Republican in Texas having to beg for money on television at this point in the race, and it's also -- I mean -- we're all here old enough to know that Democrats have been promising to turn Texas into a purple state for a long time and haven't actually done it. But it does look certainly on the money side, but also on the polling, like they've got a real chance of doing that in this race and that is a huge shift from decades of political reality in that state.

BASH: Yeah. And you know, Ken Paxton was definitely not the choice of Republicans here in Washington who thought that the sitting senator John Cornyn would have been the best bet to keep that state red.

MASON: By the way, also a black eye for President Trump. I mean, just the fact that that's happening at all right now is a reflection of the choice that he made in terms of where he gains support.

BASH: Again, we've said this before. We'll say it again. It is going to be very interesting to see if the president unlocks that bank account that he has with like $500 million in his MAGA super PAC to start to give to Texas, and of course there's Michigan because this is a Democratic held seat, and the question now that, as you said, the primary has been decided, Abdul EL-Sayed is going to be -- is the Democratic nominee.

The question is how is it going to play with the people in the middle, who always decide the razor-thin state of Michigan. EL-Sayed talked about one of the things that has been hanging on him, when you look at the more moderate electorate, the general electorate, not necessarily those who are his most staunch supporters, and that is the fact that he campaigned with Hasan Piker, who is a gamer, who has said some pretty outrageous and outlandish things, including a comment he made about 9/11. Listen to his response on that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ABDUL EL-SAYED, (D) MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: Of course, of course, it was a dumb statement, and of course, I think Hasan himself would say that was a dumb statement. He disavowed it. So yes, America didn't deserve 9/11, but you know, to sit here and play gotcha politics with a dumb thing somebody said out of context that they disavowed themselves to say, oh well, what does that mean about what you think? I want to be held accountable for what I say and what I do, rather than this idea that we've -- we're so stuck in cancel culture that all of us agreed was a bad idea back in 2020 but we seem to want to bring back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Toluse, you wrote about this race, and as I bring you in, I do want to put up on the screen what the Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, former member of Congress, is saying. If you are among the majority of Democrats who did not vote for your Senate nominee and believe he should work hard to earn your support, his top campaign surrogate has a message for you. You are all unbelievably Islamophobic pieces of shit. My message to you is simple: You have a home with us. This fight isn't about left versus right. This fight is about the soul of our nation. TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC: Yeah. It's a fascinating dynamic, in part, because Hasan Piker has disavowed what he said about 9/11. You do see --

BASH: Which is that America deserved it.

OLORUNNIPA: Right. He said that, you know, he does -- he's taken that back and whatnot. But his more recent comments show he continues to be this divisive figure. He continues to be a provocateur. He continues to be someone who is talking to a part of the Democratic electorate that is not all about bringing people together and coalescing around the idea of defeating Mike Rogers the way that Abdul EL-Sayed has been talking about for the last five days.

He's talked about coalescing. He's talked about what brings us together is much greater than what divides us. But some of his supporters, some of the people that voted for him, some of the young people do not want to make amends with the moderate voters. They do not want the candidate to be co-opted by the moderate voices within the party. They want him to continue to have some of those far-left positions that have -- that helped him to galvanize the support that he got in the primary.

And so, you do hear from people like Piker saying you need to get on board. You need to "lock in" and don't try to force Abdul EL-Sayed to come to the middle or to moderate his positions because he won the primary. And so that fight is going to continue for the next several weeks.

BASH: All right, everybody standby. Up next, no deal becomes the new deal potentially between the Trump administration and Iran. And now the White House is, quote, low keying it. What does that mean? We'll explain or at least try. And we go to two different states with two very different political tests on the ballot tomorrow, Wisconsin and Democrats' progressive movement, and South Carolina is a Trump endorsement. The final say, for Republicans. Stay with us.

[12:10:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: It was all of eight days ago, when President Trump said this about the Strait of Hormuz.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The deal is imminent, having to do with the Hormuz Strait and also the ultimately the denuclearization.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:15:00]

BASH: Now, little more than a week later, no deal seems imminent, and President Trump says the U.S. is barely even negotiating. He told Axios, "quote, we are low-keying it. We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money.

Iran says it's not engaging with the U.S. but the regime did issue a list of demands, including that the U.S. permanently end the war, stop issuing any threats to the regime, lift the naval blockade, withdraw military forces from Iran's vicinity, give war reparations to Iran, and lift all sanctions and release frozen assets.

My panel is back now. I mean, Jeff.

MASON: Yes.

BASH: Some of them were on the table before, but Iran knows that much of that is sort of non-negotiable when it comes to the U.S. But what I want to know from you is, based on the many years that you've had now covering Donald Trump. Can you define what low-keying it means in a negotiation?

MASON: Well, I love the question. I'm going to say, I think low-keying it is his way of saying right now I'm pulling back because I can't really stand behind a lot of the things that I've said over the last 10 days because that is the honest truth. I mean he has given mixed messages really from the start of this war but certainly in the last two weeks about the status of the deal, about whether or not the United States is involved in these negotiations, and about what he's willing or not willing to accept.

Certainly, some of these new terms that are coming out of Iran would not normally be something that he would accept because he has said he would not accept Iran taking a toll through the Strait of Hormuz. He has said if there was going to be a toll, it would be the United States. He's certainly not offering up U.S. compensation for work for war damages.

So, a lot of these things a week or two or three or more ago would have led him to issue additional threats. But now it's low keying, perhaps because of the munitions issue, and perhaps because he's just really, really ready to get out.

BASH: Yeah, or both.

MASON: Yes.

BASH: This is what some reporting that we have from Zach Cohen is about the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Caine. And it is Caine is looking for an off-ramp, one of the sources told him bluntly. As the war approaches the six-month mark, tempered criticism about Caine's approach to the job is being revived and questions about his relative lack of experience managing an extended conflict are being -- beginning to emerge. He is out of his depth on this one, a source familiar with how Caine is navigating the current crisis, both strategically and in managing his relationship with Trump.

It is really interesting, given the fact that Caine obviously is the top military individual in the administration and is very much tied to this now. But it is the commander in chief that wanted to do this, full stop.

OLORUNNIPA: That's absolutely right. President Trump decided to do what he called would be excursions, basically saying this would be a military campaign that would last six weeks or four weeks and be over. And now we're getting ready to be in the six-month mark. This is something that the president never expected that would take this long. He never expected that the U.S. would be running out of munitions, that the Iranians would continue to move forward with their demands and not cry uncle the way he said at the beginning of this, basically saying that there would be a complete and total surrender by Iran.

Instead, we are seeing the Iranians continue to dig in, continue to ratchet up the pressure, and say that they know that the president is facing these elections coming in November. They realize that they could get some political upper hand in trying to increase the price of gas for Americans and putting other forms of pressure on the president and realizing that as this war goes on longer and longer.

It makes it harder for the president to say that he's going to be able to get a quick victory, and that's what he's always talked about. It's part of the reason he chose Dan King in the first place. He said that Dan King was able to deliver a quick victory against ISIS several years ago. We're very far from that now.

BASH: Yeah. And he was the one who told the president, yes, we can go and target successfully Soleimani in Iran, where the president said everybody else said no. He said yes, did it successfully, which is why -- one of the reasons why the president loves him. There's another quote, Arlette, from the president in Axios that is so telling. He said it will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game.

And if you kind of go back to the beginning of the war, one of the things that he reportedly said to Tucker Carlson, who went in to tell the president, do not do this, and then they've split over this since, is, don't worry, Tucker. It'll work out. It always works out. Well, he has 80 years of experience, more or less, and data telling him that in his life it tends to work out. Excuse me. And the fact that we are six months in and it hasn't worked out is obviously frustrating him, but that is still his mentality because that's all he knows.

[12:20:00]

SAENZ: Yeah. He ultimately thinks that he will be able to get the upper hand and the final say in whatever negotiations or deal are going to come together around this conflict. But so far, there really just has not been the movement that he or Republicans have really wanted, and it's putting him and his party in a very tough place heading into the midterm elections.

We've all seen the economic ripple effects that have been coming from this war and the way that that's impacting voters' thinking when they think about just regular high cost of items, the high cost of gas, other impacts from the war. And so, even if the president thinks this is just going to work out. We're getting very close to Election Day, and there's very little time for him to course correct in this conflict for it to actually have some type of impact with voters there.

MASON: I would add to that just that, I mean you're spot on in saying he has 80 years of experience with nearly everything working out for him that he has wanted. My question politically for him is whether or not there will be consequences now in November, because often, even when you would think, you know, something that he has said or done would lead to a political disaster, it hasn't.

The polling right now shows that it probably will, but you can't count him out politically even when the conditions are such that you would think that something else would result. You just never know. You just never know.

BASH: Yeah. All right, coming up. The window to replace embattled Congressman Max Miller is now closed. Will his defiance cost Republicans a seat in a district President Trump won by double digits?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: The deadline for replacing Congressman Max Miller on the ballot has now come and gone, facing serious abuse allegations. The Ohio Republican defied his party's calls to step aside. Now the GOP is stuck with him, and a seat once considered safe could be at risk.

CNN's Annie Grayer joins me now. So, Annie, even if Congressman Miller changes his mind right now. It's a done deal, right? He's on the ballot.

ANNIE GRAYER, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: It's a done deal. He's on the ballot. He has made this decision to stay in this race. He is running for re-election because he remains defiant. He says he has done nothing wrong. He wants to clear his name, and he hasn't been charged with any crimes. He even has asked the House Ethics Committee to launch an investigation into him, which we know is going to take a long time to play out. But in the meantime, the calls within his own party are growing for him to resign.

What really complicates this matter is Miller's ex-wife Emily Miller. Her father is a Republican senator from Ohio, Ohio, Senator Moreno, who was leading the call for Miller to resign, which that window has closed. But that split screen -- that split screen in the party is going to remain if Miller remaining defiant and a growing number of Republicans joining Moreno and saying that he needs to not be reelected and should not be serving in Congress.

BASH: And this is a district that President Trump won by 11 percentage points. Is there any concern that this is so toxic that Democrats could actually turn the seat?

GRAYER: Behind the scenes, yes. And that's why there were Republican leaders trying to push Miller out and not run for re-election. President Trump and Miller even spoke during that period, but the president never specifically told Miller to step aside. Just that it was going to be a tough race. But Miller ignored all those calls from his party and instead is defiant that he is going to continue pursuing this race.

And in a midterm year where the control balance of power in the House could come down to just a few battleground seats, Republicans are concerned that Miller's once considered very safe district is going to be -- is now going to be an issue now that he is embroiled in all of these allegations. And we traveled to his district last week, where voters were really split. Some said that Congressman Miller is innocent until proven guilty, hasn't been charged with anything. He deserves the right to clear his name. Others do believe that these allegations hold a lot of weight.

And in the meantime, his Democratic opponent is continuing to run his race. So, take a listen to how the Democrat who Miller is facing is framing all of this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRIAN POINDEXTER, (D) OHIO CONG. CANDIDATE: I didn't get into this race because Max Miller's personal life is in shambles. I got into this race because working families' lives are turned upside down by the policies that this administration and Max Miller have supported.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRAYER: So now Miller has to go out and campaign. He was supposed to have a campaign event today, but that was canceled, according to the Republican Party in Ohio because of security concerns. So how is Miller going to face voters in the final months of this campaign? How is he going to handle the growing calls for him to resign within his own party. That is something that we're going to be watching very closely as we get closer to November, Dana?

BASH: All right, Annie. Thank you so much. Appreciate that reporting. And up next. Will cheese heads help spread the socialist wave? Tomorrow the DSA faces its next big test in the Wisconsin governor's race. We're diving deep, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)