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Republicans Privately Sound Alarm Over Inaction On Affordability; More Republicans Breaking With Trump On Iran, Gas Prices; Cook Analysis Predicts Dems On Track To Gain 5 To 15 House Seats; GOP Midterm Anxiety Hits Iowa As 3 Republicans Break With Trump; Marist Poll: Iowa Dems Have Edge In Races For Senate & Governor; New Iowa Senate Ads Focus On Epstein Files & Immigration; Military Families Raise Alarm Over Trump Arch Observation Deck. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired September 25, 2026 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00]

ADAM HARRIS, CO-HOST, RADIO ATLANTIC: -- to help us as we have this war that's waging overseas, right? We're -- you said no more forever wars, now we have a forever war. We're seeing the ways that -- we're hearing about the ways that AI is going to impact us negatively, and so what are we actually getting positively that's going to help our bottom lines?

And I think that there is a increasing sort of view of cynicism in America, where it's like they become cynical about our politics. The recent New York Times conversation with voters down in Texas, folks who had voted for the President, where they're saying, well it doesn't seem that you all are actually doing any things that you said you were you were going to do.

So I think it'll be interesting to see whether the, you know, Congress staying, the Senate staying, and actually trying to do something with 30 days reads as the sort of cynical thing to those voters who they're trying to say -- that's what they're saying, they're trying to help with it.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: You mean the inevitable like resolution to support not high prices is not going to change voters?

HARRIS: Yes, exactly.

MATTINGLY: Megan, you have a fascinating piece where you kind of detail, which again, the White House operation, I think when it comes to Capitol Hill, is hardline and has been unyielding, which I think was part of the success with One Big Beautiful Bill Act, how they've been able to keep things together, but also they're professional, like they understand how things work.

And there is, to the extent we've seen people like break, which is, break is probably a little bit strong, like they know about it. They're, if not sanctioning it, like at least saying like, all right, this is happening. But you also said Trump understands that, it's a, quote, the other piece, "Trump understands the whole gamut. He gets the concept. He gets the environment, the person familiar with the White House thinking said. He gets these people are fighting alongside him more than people credit them for."

He's the one piece of this that I'm like, I'm not sure that he's OK with people breaking, but inside the White House it seems like maybe it is.

MEGAN MESSERLY, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, POLITICO: Yes. And I think you have to think about it. There's a fine line there, you know, the White House and the President are giving candidates a leash to stake out positions different from the President, so long as the way that they do that is not directly critical of the President, right, so I think that's why --

MATTINGLY: More visible on social media.

MESSERLY: Yes. I think what you see is, you know, for instance, on the Iran issue, right, you've seen, you know, several Republican Senate candidates come out and say, you know, this war needs to end, and yet not taking -- you know, we saw Republicans not support that War Powers vote, right?

So that's where you see the split between, OK, you can message how you need to message for your voters, but don't criticize the President. So sort of trying to thread that needle there. There's a little bit of nuance, but, I mean, the ultimate challenge here is, is the White House, even as it's giving, you know, candidates some leeway to message how they need to message, even as it's, you know, trying to pursue some sort of last-minute policy options, we've heard the President talk this week about a diesel export ban, though there's lots of talk about whether or not that would actually help, you know, the White House really is trying here to do what it can to help these candidates.

But the Republican operatives that I'm talking to are saying, you know, this is just too little, too late. This would have been great several months ago, but, you know, any of these efforts at this point aren't really going to help voters feel that in their pockets. At this point, it's going to be more symbolic and something that you can put in a campaign ad to say, you know, hey, I'm fighting for you.

MATTINGLY: Yes, resolution opposed to high prices. I'm -- I should be a legislative strategist.

Carrie, which all brings me back to the shift in the House races that your team identified today, announced today. What I think is fascinating about it is, one, this has been like a really bad two weeks of, like, any Republican official who wants to talk on background, wants to tell reporters how everything is falling apart.

CARRIE DANN, MANAGING EDITOR, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: OK.

MATTINGLY: And yet, you know, if you're picking up five seats, like, this isn't 2018, this isn't 2008, what am I -- can you contextualize for people, like, things are moving in Democrats direction very clearly. Today, quick political report making that clear in these races, some of which were Trump plus, 10 plus districts.

DANN: That's right.

MATTINGLY: But pick up five to 15?

DANN: Well, and let's lay out, five is sort of the minimum, right?

MATTINGLY: Yes, yes.

DANN: And Democrats need three seats to win the House, so basically, what we have said --

MATTINGLY: Yes, that's a majority. Yes.

DANN: What we have said is they are on track to win the majority, and on paper, could Republicans win a majority of the 22 toss-up races? On paper, sure. In reality, all but impossible.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

DANN: That range from 5 to 15 also could and may narrow and be upwardly revised in Democrats' favor. The main thing that we're watching, I'd call it the million-dollar question, but it's the $450 million question, is whether Republican advertising can move the needle at all here.

A lot of the races that we're looking at that are sort of in that lean category, that could end up going Democrats' way, are places where the Democrat and the Republican are essentially tied, but they're both tied at, say, 46 percent. That leaves a lot of undecided voters in very red districts.

What Republicans are hoping is that they can barrage those kind of districts with millions of dollars of ads, painting the Democrats as out of touch, and they will get those undecided voters who are Republican-leading, who probably voted for Trump, to come home. If those numbers don't move over the next couple of weeks, it will show that Republicans maybe have hit a ceiling with their message that money can't overcome.

MATTINGLY: Let me do the same thing I did real quick during the commercial break, which is ask for your expert opinion on things to make me smarter. When will you know, like, when you're looking at numbers, when will you say, like, ah, this doesn't work, like, tens of millions of dollars is not moving the needle like it needs to. Is there, like, a moment in time where you say, like, all right, it's a little too late now?

[12:35:13]

DANN: I'm not sure if there's a discrete moment in time, because, again, every race is unique, every candidate is a unique and beautiful snowflake, so candidate quality does matter. There isn't some magic number or magic place but I do think we're going to be looking very closely at the Republicans in the toss-up category and in the lean Republican category to see if those are races where, you know, if the bottom is really falling out, if those are taking a step to the left. Republicans still remain hopeful that their voters are going to come home, but they're really running out of time.

MATTINGLY: You know, you can also learn a lot. Cook Political Report does live streams. Amy Walter, legend. David Wasserman, legend. Carrie Dann, legend. If you're not watching CNN, you should check that out when it comes up.

All right, coming up --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's go.

MATTINGLY: -- three Iowa Republicans in the category of what Carrie was just talking about, breaking from President Trump on Iran. What are they hearing back home that's actually driving this shift? We'll get the scoop from Des Moines next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:40:39]

MATTINGLY: Now to a state where Republicans' midterm anxiety is clearly showing, Iowa. President Trump, remember, won it by 13 points in 2024, but in just the last 10 days, three vulnerable Hawkeye State Republicans broke publicly with the President on the war in Iran.

I want to bring in someone tapped into Iowa politics at the most granular level, Stephen Gruber Miller of the Des Moines Register. Stephen, I really appreciate your time here. This was one of those things where, like, it happened in rapid succession, and I should note, Chuck Grassley, not running currently, not up for reelection, but kind of led the way with his own tweet, which leads to a lot of people wondering, like, oh, what were they seeing?

Was there something in their internals? I would just point people to diesel prices. What was your sense of what triggered how this happened this week?

STEPHEN GRUBER-MILLER, CAPITOL BUREAU CHIEF, DES MOINES REGISTER: Yes, I think you're right with diesel prices. You know, they hit a record high in Iowa earlier this week, and gas prices are near record highs as well, and I think all of that is driving these Republicans to feel like they need to be more vocal about this issue.

So you saw Representative Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks actually vote for the War Powers Resolution. Representative Ashley Hinson, who's running for Senate, did not vote for that resolution, but then later this in the week, she called for the war to come to an end.

MATTINGLY: There has been -- there's been Democratic enthusiasm about their candidates in particular, but also about the potential in the state really since the start of the cycle. I probably didn't totally buy into it until later than most. Democrats definitely excited about a recent Marist poll showing them ahead in races for Senate and governor.

There was conservative talk show host Steve Deese, who had a viral tweet saying GOP pollsters are warning Iowa House Republicans that R- plus-15 districts are within the margin of error, R-plus-10 districts are underwater. I think the question I always have in these moments is narratives can kind of get carried away on some level.

A 13-point swing from 24 would be enormous writ large. When you look at the numbers, are they tracking with how you're seeing things, how you're hearing about things on the ground, or do you think these races are tighter?

GRUBER-MILLER: Yes, I think it's important to take any individual poll with a grain of salt, right, and Marist was kind of an outlier from what some of the other polls were showing. So I think it's a little too soon to see if that's a trend that's going to continue in Democrats' favor or if it's a one-off. And, you know, Steve Deese, the tweet that you're talking about, I'm not sure if he's seen that polling.

I haven't seen it, but I think maybe it's more about the message of Republicans needing to run like they're behind or like they're in danger and needing to make sure that they're capable of, you know, really putting the -- their feet to the ground here and not phoning it in in the final month.

MATTINGLY: Yes, and also waving the flag to money, donors. This would be a good place to spend at this point in time because there's a lot of different races going on there. I do want to ask you about one in particular, the governor's race.

Democratic candidate Rob Sand, huge polling lead among Independents. What's driving that? How -- can you explain to people how powerful an independent vote is in Iowa?

GRUBER-MILLER: Yes, I mean, there are more independents in Iowa than there are registered Democrats. And, you know, what Rob Sand has really tried to do with his campaign is campaign not as a traditional Democrat. He's trying to make the case to Independents and even some Republicans that they can support him because he's not about the maybe more left things that most Democrats care about.

He cares about good government is the pitch that he's making. And so he's also proposing a lot of changes to the way Iowa conducts its elections that would open up more participation for Independents, and just generally trying to stay away from those party labels.

MATTINGLY: Do you see a scenario where there are split ticket voters? Because it seems like you talk to people in both parties and they kind of grant you Sand is in a very good place right now, but there are a lot -- the House races are very tight. The Senate race is very tight. Is there going to be ticket splitting here?

GRUBER-MILLER: I think there will be some. I think, you know, around the country we've seen ticket splitting kind of decline, but I think Iowa has shown some examples in recent years where there's maybe a little bit more happening here of ticket splitting than there is in some other states. And Rob Sand is a great example of that in his 2022 race for auditor.

He definitely had some ticket splitting going on there, and I think that's part of why there's a lot of buzz around him and his ability to do that, which is somewhat proven.

[12:45:07]

But, yes, I mean, I think a lot of these races are going to be tight, and I think the thing to keep in mind is that even the polls that are showing maybe good trends for Democrats, Democrats have been burned by some of those polls before, and so they probably won't believe it until election night.

MATTINGLY: Yes, it's a very go-back-and-track. Senate polls, House polls, and all the districts are statewide that we're talking about right now over the course of the last couple cycles, and you'll see exactly what you're talking about.

On the Senate race, I want to play two ads, one targeting Hinson, another targeting Turek. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In their world, power protects power. Ashley Hinson made sure of it. Her top donors appear in the Epstein files over 700 times. In Congress, Hinson voted against releasing the files. When given another chance, she skipped the votes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Turek voted to give taxpayer-funded welfare benefits to illegal immigrants, said cracking down on illegals was --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Fundamentally wrong and un-American.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now for context, outside groups, their sole purpose is to drive up negatives, but I guess my question when I was watching him is Epstein, immigration, to what extent are these issues that Iowa voters are focused on in your conversations?

GRUBER-MILLER: I think they tie into larger themes in the race, and so actually I think you've chosen two good ads that sort of highlight some of these things. The Epstein connection, I think, is part of the argument that Democrats are making more broadly, not just in Iowa but elsewhere as well, about corruption, this being an election about someone who they want to say is out for themselves and not for Iowans.

So I think there's a connection there that ties in in that way. And I will say Ashley Hinson did vote with the majority of Congress for the Epstein Files Transparency Act last year.

On immigration with Turek, you know, Turek has been running his race as a Moderate, as somebody who has common sense. And so the Republican messaging around him with immigration and other issues is that he's actually an extreme liberal. And so they're trying to tie him to those elements of the party that are less appealing to your independent voters in Iowa, like we were talking about a minute ago.

MATTINGLY: Steve Gruber-Miller, Des Moines Register. It just feels better in politics when Iowa is front and center, as it should be. I appreciate your time, my friend. Thank you so much.

GRUBER-MILLER: Glad to be here.

MATTINGLY: Well, coming up, the newest part of President Trump's proposed arch that has veterans and Gold Star families speaking out.

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[12:52:12]

MATTINGLY: Veterans and Gold Star families are alarmed over the latest proposed addition to the Trump Arch in D.C., an open-air observation deck. It was only added to the design for the arch after the Trump administration unveiled the plans to the public, according to two sources.

CNN's Sunlen Serfaty has been covering the story every step of the way. Sunlen, you talk to some military families. What are they saying about the observation deck on the arch?

SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Phil, there are so many military funerals that happen in Arlington every weekday between 24 and 27, so this is a thing that happens very regularly or during the day. And they're, as you know, very highly choreographed, very precise down to every detail to honor in a beautiful way those who have given the ultimate sacrifice to our country.

And military families that I spoke to, veterans and Gold Star families, really express weariness at adding this element of a tourism observation deck platform to the top of the President's proposed arch, 160 feet in the air, looking out over Arlington Cemetery. And they felt strange and awed about this dynamic of tourists being able to take pictures, look out over their funerals as they are grieving.

I want to read you what a few people told me. They said, quote, "Why the hell would someone put an observation deck on top of this arch what do you observe people's grief? The solemn private nature of that ceremony is gone if people can stand on top of this 250-foot vanity project with a pair of binoculars and look at what's going on in Arlington."

Another woman told me, "It's just the wrong place to put a vantage point because this is very much seeing people on the worst day of their life. I can't imagine if some observers were behind us doing a phone video of all of this."

Now, the White House, of course, knows that this arch project writ large has been very controversial, and I asked them about the specific criticism coming from military families feeling that their privacy was potentially at risk. And the White House spokesperson said, quote, that they believe "It will only enhance the visitor experience at Arlington National Cemetery for veterans, the families of the fallen, and Americans and like."

But the White House notably did not answer my specific questions. Will there be any change in protocol to funerals? When and if the arch is built, will there be any extra protocol on the top of the observation deck? For instance, a veteran said, what about if you put plaques saying you are now potentially observing a solemn ceremony? Maybe it could be an educational experience.

We do know, according to documents that I viewed, that they've made temporary measures, temporary protocols in place, saying they'll control lighting around the construction, potentially when the arch is built. They'll also make accommodations during the funerals when construction is going on, but that does not speak to the broader question of when and if this arch is built, what permanent protocols will be in place to help those families that are, as this woman said, on the worst day of their lives.

[12:55:02]

MATTINGLY: Questions that need to be answered for those families. Can I ask you, I believe there was a short-circuiting of one part of the review process, if I read your reporting correctly, does that mean this is one step closer to actually coming to fruition?

SERFATY: Then it's certainly inching along, and it's very clear that the Trump administration is doing everything they can to make sure that the final approvals are in place for this project, potentially this fall. They are really eyeing November on the schedule.

There has been a long process called the Section 106 review. It's required by law to happen. Basically, all the consulting parties, historians, preservationists get in a room and they basically give their advice on projects that influence historical properties.

Every one of those correspondent -- excuse me, consultants in the last meeting basically said we're not ready to sign off on this project. Now we have the administration saying we're going to go forth and push ahead, basically leave that to the side, push ahead to the final approval, likely in November.

MATTINGLY: Sunlen Serfaty, great reporting, as always.

SERFATY: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Thank you.

And thank you for joining Inside Politics. Be sure to tune in Sunday to State of the Union. Jake's guests include Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Governor Andy Beshear.

CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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