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Cook Political Report Moves 18 House Races Towards Democrats; Cook Moves Four GOP Incumbents From Tossup To Lean Democratic; Rogers, El-Sayed Spar Over Personal Character In MI Senate Debate; Polls Show Tight Race Between Rogers, El-Sayed In Final Days; MI GOP Voter: Gas Prices "Inconsequential" Against Iran Threat. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 09, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: So sweet. That sailor was meeting his baby daughter for the first time. And he is not alone. The captain of the ship says 122 sailors became fathers or had a child while on deployment. And today they are waking up and they're getting to hug those babies and wives in person, probably changing some diapers. They actually took classes on board to learn the basics of being a parent, changing diapers, feeding a baby, holding a baby. So now they're putting that into practice.

Thank you to the navy and to the crew and officials aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln for following me to share some of your story -- allowing me to share some of these really important stories for people to understand. From back in July when I first was on the Abraham Lincoln to now, Wolf. Wow, how this story has shifted. Now they're home.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN CO-ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: Beautiful work. And to our viewers, thanks very much for joining us this morning. We'll see you back here Monday morning, 10 a.m. Eastern. Inside Politics with Dana Bash starts right now.

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: A stinging blow to House Republicans as new election ratings break overwhelmingly in Democrats' favor.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 25 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power in Washington and across the country. For House Republicans, the hits keep coming. Today, the Cook Political Report is revising its election forecast, moving 18 House races in Democrats' favor. That includes four Republican-held seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, shifting from tossup races to Lean Democratic. Cook now projects Democrats will gain between nine and 19 seats, more than enough to flip control of the House.

The editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter, joins me now. Amy, thank you so much for being here. First, kind of big picture. What is the trend that you are seeing that is making you at Cook move these races towards the Democrats?

AMY WALTER, PUBLISHER & EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Yeah, Dana, you know, we've obviously been seeing an environment for months now that favors Democrats. But in early -- the early part of the fall, we also know that Republicans spent a whole lot of money arguing that that might be enough to help shore up their most vulnerable seats. Well, here we are, 25 days from the election, and it's pretty clear that even all that spending isn't able to stop what is really a building tide here against Republicans.

Iowa, Pennsylvania states, and the districts in those states, which are traditionally swingier districts, now look like they're leaning in Democrats' favor. And the bottom line, Dana, when we think about just what election night looks like, is the races now in play are those that traditionally we wouldn't be talking about. They're in deep red territory, including some districts that Trump won by double digits.

BASH: And just to put a finer point on the money advantage that Republicans have, like we cannot emphasize this enough. It's about $200 million in key House races. That's not the advantage, but that's what Republicans have spent.

WALTER: Right.

BASH: And not only are you showing that it hasn't moved the needle towards them, it's -- the needle is being overwhelmed in the opposite direction.

WALTER: Yeah, by the environment. The other piece, Dana, that I think is important here when you look at our ratings is also included in these most vulnerable districts or districts that could go Democrats' way, are a lot of seats that Republicans redrew this cycle to favor Republican candidates.

Districts in Florida, Texas, Ohio that were supposed to -- and North Carolina that were supposed to put Republicans pretty safely in the driver's seat. We have all of those seats right now at sitting either in toss up or leaning towards Democrats. So, it's not just that Republicans are having challenges on defense, their offensive opportunities are also fading away.

BASH: Yeah. And just looking at some of these, we just had up on the screen, for example, some in Nevada and New York, Tom Suozzi, for example, Laura Gillen. Those were the races that just two years ago were the sort of swingiest of House districts. And what you are saying and what you are seeing, and that's the reason why you've moved them from Lean D to likely D is because that's not even where the fight is. The fight is as just to understand what you said in really red areas.

[12:05:00]

WALTER: Right, which of course is what's happening on the Senate side as well. I mean, from the very beginning of this cycle, Dana, you and I have talked about this. You talk about this on your show all the time. The advantage that Republicans came into this election with, the biggest advantages they had were money and infrastructure. The districts and states that Democrats would need to win in order to win the Senate, make big gains in the House were districts that Trump won by more than five points or up to, you know, 10, 15 points.

Well, right now, we're in those territories, obviously on the Senate side and on the House side as well. And as I said, many of those 10 plus districts, or you know, those districts Trump won by big margins are the ones that Republicans redrew to their benefit.

BASH: You know, if we can put up on the screen before I let you go the one that starts with Ryan Mackenzie, Pennsylvania seven, and Scott Perry, Pennsylvania 10.

WALTER: Yeah.

BASH: I want to talk to you about that because, you know, one of the storylines in the primary season was what's happening inside the Democratic Party and whether or not Democrats in many areas were electing candidates that didn't sort of fit the district. I'm in Michigan today. This is a statewide question of whether somebody on the progressive left can win in a purple district.

But I want to talk about Pennsylvania because in those first two seats that we're seeing there, those are incumbent Republicans. Democrats in Pennsylvania, like Josh Shapiro, took great pride in saying that they helped elect Democrats who more fit the district, meaning there are -- they are more moderate Democrats. That has got to be a big factor here.

WALTER: Yeah. There's no doubt that the quality of the Democratic candidate matters and these are the other challenge, you know, in that seventh district, as you pointed out, this is one of the swingiest districts in the entire country. This has gone back and forth, or the incumbent wins by a very narrow margin every time. So, in a difficult environment, those are really hard for an incumbent to hold on.

The tenth is also interesting. This is traditionally Republican territory in and around Harrisburg, but what is happening here is two things. One, the district has been moving more Democratic over the past few years. Even as some parts of Pennsylvania are moving right, this part of the state moving a little more towards Democrats, and Republicans have an incumbent, Scott Perry, somebody who has his own political baggage. And so, you put those two things together that makes for a very difficult hold for Republicans.

BASH: Yeah. And as I let you go, we're just looking back on that same screen. Bill Huizenga, who is a Republican here in Michigan, where I am, has been Lean R. He was thought to have been in a very comfortable Republican seat. Now it's a tossup and I was certainly hearing about that bullishness from Democrats here in Michigan about --

(CROSSTALK)

WALTER: Yeah, because Western Michigan is a place that has been again for everything that has not gone well for Democrats over the last couple of years in Michigan. Western Michigan is one of their bright spots, Grand Rapids around that area, and Huizenga has held on and outperformed Trump for a while, but outperforming Trump in 2024 looks a lot different than outperforming a president who's even more unpopular than he has been, quite frankly, since he was elected in his first term.

BASH: Amy Walter, I adore you. Thanks for jumping on and helping explain the new ratings at the -- at the Cook Political Report. See you soon. Thanks, my friend.

WALTER: Thanks for having me. Bye.

BASH: And after the break, as I mentioned, I am in Michigan today. Last night, Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed held their first debate. Hear what happened there and what Michigan voters think. And later, another leaked audio tape from Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton's about his campaign. This time, he's talking about the fellow Republican he ousted from the Senate, John Cornyn.

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[12:10:00]

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BASH: Welcome back to Inside Politics today from Michigan, where last night Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers took the stage for their first debate of this Senate race, and it got fiery and personal.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE ROGERS, (R) MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: And the doctor, well, he's not really a doctor.

ABDUL EL-SAYED, (D) MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: That's the kind of policy you're going to get from a guy who wants to be a sock puppet for the Trump administration.

ROGERS: I think he's a little concerned about the two properties he owns, United Arab Emirates. I think the other one's Egypt.

EL-SAYED: Three yachts. You know what? Did you sell your yachts?

ROGERS: I never owned a yacht in Florida, brother.

EL-SAYED: Oh, really? What was a yacht? You had two of them.

ROGERS: He will say anything to win. And by the way, that's what his sister said.

EL-SAYED: He wants to take every corporate dollar he can to jump close for Donald Trump.

ROGERS: There you go. He learned that in Oxford, I guess, how to talk pretty.

EL-SAYED: I learned that at Michigan, where I actually went to school. I don't just parade around in the Block M.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:1500]

BASH: I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters, including Jonathan Oosting, who is somebody who. Where are you? You're like, however many miles north of where I am. I'm just outside of Detroit. You're in Traverse City, but most importantly, you know the state. Let's start with some of what we just heard from the debate last night. Your takeaway?

JONATHAN OOSTING, POLITICS TEAM LEADER & DEPUTY EDITOR, BRIDGE MICHIGAN: Oh yeah. Well, I mean, it was, you know, the gloves were off. It was an intense debate, as you played in those clips there. A lot of personal attacks, not a whole lot of policy. There was a little bit of it, certainly. But you know, these guys are only going to get two chances to go before voters, and they tried to cram in every attack line. It seems that they had in the campaign so far. And it was a little bit overwhelming, I think, for political reporters, but for voters as well, trying to cipher through what all of those attacks actually meant.

BASH: Look, Evan, this is obviously, we say this every day. We just showed it in the first segment. This is an environment where Democrats are doing much better because Republicans are on their heels. And talking to people in and around Rogers, their whole goal right now is to continue to, as they say, define Abdul El-Sayed and that was certainly on display last night. Let's listen to a little bit more of what Rogers was saying to him on the debate stage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROGERS: Catching people who were suspected of terrorists and being terrorist, committing a terrorist act. That's really, really important. And why would that bother you? Well, if you have someone in your family that might be on the --

El-SAYED: I'm sorry. Why shouldn't you go ahead and said that I'm -- go ahead and say.

ROGERS: No, I'm going to say -- did you not have family --

(CROSSTALK)

ROGERS: I'll tell you what my mother did. She was a small --

El-SAYED: You're going after my mom?

ROGERS: I'm not going after your mom.

El-SAYED: That's exactly what --

ROGERS: What your mom was working at, I was going after that organization that was indicted for funneling money to Al Qaeda.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Evan?

EVAN MCMORRIS-SANTORO, REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON SUN: Look, there is no artifice in this debate. These two guys do not like each other. I mean, at one point, the moderator said, coming back from an ad break, that in 30 years we're doing debates. I know you've done a lot of debates too yourself, Dana. That he had never seen the candidates continue to debate during the ad break when no one is watching, but these two guys did.

I mean, this is a race that it really is across the entire map, right. We have seen Democrats kind of go on offense. Republicans are on defense. I think that's true in Michigan too. But El-Sayed has a different situation than other Democrats. That primary that he came out of, which was a very tough primary, that he sort of eked out a win in the end of that primary.

What Mike Rogers is trying to do is keep that primary going, keep those divisions going. And so, when you see him talk about this stuff, the way he talks about El-Sayed is designed, I think, to continue that primary that and put El-Sayed on his heels. More of him trying to have to defend himself as a person.

Now the other side of this is El-Sayed, you know, look -- he has a situation where Mike Rogers is trying very hard to run away from Trump, you know. An ad was mentioned about where Mike Rogers is saying, you know, Canada is not our enemy. We like Canada. But then when he actually comes to talk about the tariffs or talk about the war in Iran, he sounds a little bit more sort of conciliatory, maybe even talking about good things coming out of that.

And at the end of the debate, after the debate, says he'd be happy to have Trump come visit. But this is a really fascinating insight into what this whole election is about. Because in this case, the Republicans need those divisions from the primaries to last through November, and the Democrats need those to be over and for it to be about Trump. And I think there's more -- like no clearer, you know, depiction of that than we saw last night in Michigan.

BASH: Yeah. No, you're exactly right, and that's so well said on the tariffs, which is one of the economic albatrosses around Mike Rogers' neck. Here's some of the debate on that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROGERS: There are tariffs that I think are too high and not helpful for us. We ought to get rid of those. So, this is about getting the best deal possible. I'd like to see it end. I think we need to end it. And as a matter of fact, have made those phone calls this week. We didn't change. What we said is things move. We're trying to get it wrapped up. We want a deal on those tariff deals.

EL-SAYED: Weak, cowardly, won't stand up until his poll numbers drop.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BASH: Abby?

ABBY LIVINGSTON, CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT, PUCK: you know, it's -- this is what I find so fascinating about Michigan and also Maine, where Democrats also are worried about the two worry states for the party. They border Canada, and so this is a really, really tangible issue. And so, I think the central question of this, the Michigan campaign. I've had Republicans in the last couple of days say, they still have a shot at it, but they know it's going to be a really hard lift.

[12:20:00]

And so, the definition of a wave is when personal attacks, which can enthuse, you know, enthuse the base can help with fundraising. Do those just sort of wipe away, and the national issues of cost of living and corruption overwhelm everything else? And that, you know, only time will tell on that.

BASH: Yeah. So, Jonathan, I got to speak to some of your fellow Michiganders last night. We went to the old Detroit Burger Bar, which, by the way, was delicious in Lake Orion in Oakland County. And I want to play some of what we talked about with voters. First, these are two women who tend to vote for Democrats. One is not in the Senate race, the other is. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAWN AUBREY, MICHIGAN VOTER: I don't really have a trust in what he says that he's going to carry out. I just feel like he's had a lot of contradictions, and you know, things that he has -- he has said in the past and the people that, you know, that he has on his campaign versus what he is saying and wanting to do now.

BASH: If there were a different Democrat running against Mike Rogers, would you have voted Democrat?

AUBREY: I possibly would have. I possibly would have.

BASH: Like Haley Stevens, who ran against.

AUBREY: I voted for Haley Stevens. I did. Yes. Yeah. She has been a strong force in Michigan, I feel, and I would have definitely liked to see her get into the Senate.

EMMA SCHWEDER, MICHIGAN VOTER: If I look back in the past couple of years, I feel like there has been no change for -- when we look towards the future. And I want to make sure I could set up myself to be able to have a family one day, a house, and I feel like Abdul is trying. At least his message is leaning that way that could help my future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Jonathan, I'm guessing that's the kind of thing that you hear all the time. The young person who's all in for Abdul El-Sayed is probably not surprising, given what we saw in the primary. But Dawn, who is somebody who says she's more of an independent but votes Democrat a lot? She just is turned off by him, and she's already voted. She voted for Rogers.

OOSTING: Yeah, definitely. We're hearing a lot of that. I mean, just like we saw President Trump sort of forge a new coalition in 2016, both Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers are trying to do that this year. Abdul is, of course, courting the young vote and hoping to turn out a lot of those, you know, not high frequency voters that that Trump managed to pull out in 2016 and 2024. And on the flip side, Mike Rogers is making a very concerted play for folks like that in Oakland County, in particular, is kind of the nexus of where these issues that Abdul El-Sayed might have with certain typically democratic groups is coming to a head.

There's a large Jewish population there, and of course he has struggled to mend some fences after a very -- that was a very combative issue in the primary, and it's also, you know, a home of more, you know, moderate Democrats traditionally, who have maybe become Democrats in recent years because they didn't like Trump, but now maybe don't like an ex -- you know, extreme shift in the other direction as well.

BASH: Yeah, yeah. And the other poll is what we've seen really generationally here in Michigan and other places, people who are in unions or grew up in union households who grew up Democrats and felt that the Democratic Party left them and have been voting Republican. I spoke to one of those voters, Keith Wilder, who is in a union, and he says, yeah, he pays more for gas. Yeah, it might be a little tighter economically, but he's still all in for the Republicans because he doesn't like the Democrats. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEITH WILDER, MICHIGAN VOTER: The higher gas prices to me are inconsequential because I don't want my children to have to face the threat from a nuclearized Iran, and people are not intelligent enough to figure it out. That's really what's important.

BASH: So, it's a sacrifice worth making, is what you're saying.

WILDER: 1,000 percent. It's not a problem to me. And honestly, the Republicans -- the true Republicans, the people that want the best for this country, 100 percent agree with that. And I'm sick of this reporting that like, oh, they're mad at Trump for this, they're mad at Trump for that.

Listen, the people that really know, they know it's worth it. It's worth it to us, because I don't want my kids to have to continue to 47 years. I remember when I was in like 10th grade, thinking about why did they take our people hostage in Iran? Because they're radical Islamists who want to ruin our country and take over this country. I'm voting for the Republican.

[12:25:00]

BASH: Mike Rogers?

KEITH: Mike Rogers, John James. Like I'm voting --

BASH: Straight ticket up and down.

KEITH: And honestly, let me be very clear to you. I don't want to represent like, oh, I like this guy, I like that guy. I don't care about the guy. I want the policies that they represent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: All right, we're going to take a quick break, guys. When we come back, can Republicans win back Michigan's governorship? You just heard Keith talking about John James. He's the Republican running, and he's up against the discussion we've been having, a national mood souring on the GOP. John James will be here after a break.

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