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Inside Politics

Trump Approval Hits Record Low Of 32 Percent; Trump's Approval Among Whites Without College Degrees Plummets; Trump Makes Bevy Of Promises If Republicans Win House, Senate; Vance: "A Little Bit Disgusted" With Republicans Whining About Ad; Acton Ad Shows Brother Describing Abusive Childhood; Vance: "Stop Whining About An Ad And Go Win The Race"; Tonight: El-Sayed, Rogers Face Off In Second Debate In Pivotal Race. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 21, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: New CNN polling reveals just how much political ground Republicans have to make up with less than two weeks until the polls close.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 13 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar.

We start with brand new CNN polling, showing Democrats with a double- digit lead in the race for Congress. It's a generic ballot, and in it, registered voters choose the Democratic candidate over the Republican 49 percent to 39 percent. It also shows President Trump's approval rating at a new low, just 32 percent, that's down 15 percentage points from just the beginning of this second term. But Democrats have their own image problem. The poll finds nearly half of voters have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party.

Vice President Vance is in Ohio today, campaigning for Republicans fighting to win tight races in his home state. That includes the GOP candidate for Governor Vivek Ramaswamy, who is facing pretty fierce backlash for pouring $4 million into an ad, featuring his opponent Amy Acton's estranged mother attacking her daughter. Acton addressed what she describes as a painful family history and her opponent's ad on a radio show yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AMY ACTON, (D) OHIO GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: I was removed from her at the age of 12, my brother was nine, for child abuse and neglect that got bad enough. We were actually living in a tent in the middle of winter. She was eventually arrested. It's awful to see this. It's awful to see her this way and it's even more incredible to see that my opponent has taken advantage of someone who is -- who's clearly not well.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BASH: We're going to have much more on this particularly nasty race ahead. And in Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is getting some backup on the campaign trail from her former Senate colleague Joe Manchin. The West Virginia Democrat turned independent is helping Collins push back against attacks that she's too aligned with President Trump. This posted on Collins' social media this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE MANCHIN, (I) FORMER WEST VIRGINIA SENATOR: And I'm doing everything I can to make sure the people of Maine understand what they have in this lady who represents them and nobody else. The only answers to Maine and the constitution. The oath she took to protect and defend the constitution.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And now to Florida, where Bill Clinton will hit the campaign trail for the first time this cycle. The former president is trying to give Democrat David Jolly a boost in his race against -- for governor against Republican Byron Donalds.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL CLINTON, 42ND U.S. PRESIDENT: You want somebody who will wake up every morning, thinking about what you need, not what will make President Trump happy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Bill Clinton's first term in the White House. Yesterday, the Democratic Governors Association announced its investing $1 million in the race. I have a terrific group of reporters here with me now. Hi, all. I want to go back to the poll because there's a lot more to get to, and tick through a few more of the numbers in this poll. It's really pretty stunning, even though we know the trends to see some of these examples that bear that out.

So first, look at the president's approval rating with key subgroups below 50 percent with seniors, with white Americans, and men in particular. It gets even worse with women, Latinos, young voters, and black Americans. Just 27 percent of Americans approve of the president's handling of the economy, and voters think Democrats would do better on almost all of those top issues; healthcare, cost of living, data centers, and corruption. Republicans do lead barely, but they do lead on the issue of immigration. Phil Mattingly, your takeaway.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: I think to start with, you're right on the trend lines, right? And I think that's actually an important note here, which is poll after poll after poll from national organizations, respected polling organizations are finding the same things in terms of the top lines that we're seeing.

[12:05:00] I think when you dig into this poll a little bit and you start looking at cross tabs and you start looking at where Trump supporters explicitly are on this, where I think his 74 percent approval right now against people that supported Trump, 38 percent of them approve on what he's doing on inflation right now, 21 percent.

There's just like a series of numbers where we see cracks, and across the board on economic related issues in particular, the Iran war as well, where the one thing that he has always had is that his people don't break. His base is always there. They need their -- the entire strategy right now is base turnout that you see. It's why he's going, where he's going. It's why their money is going, where it's going.

And they believe that kind of those -- the voters that they were able to turn out as part of their coalition back in '24 are kind of the only path right now to help the members of their conferences in the House and the Senate win. And right now, you're seeing cracks in that. At the same time, kind of Republicans writ large are unsettled and unmotivated. And whether or not people like Democrats, they want change.

BASH: Exactly. So, let's sort of dig into some of what you just said. Just -- first, we want to show you one other sort of set of examples. Just broadly, the president's approval rating, it's really the disapproval. He's underwater, meaning more people disapprove than approve of him on his job as president; the economy, inflation, healthcare, immigration, foreign affairs, election integrity.

But digging into what you just said, Phil, on the question of the president's supporters. This is the voters who are white with no college degree, and I have Ron Brownstein in my ear saying that these are the people that that drove Donald Trump and Trumpism for 10 years. Look at that trend. It is a downward trend, started just in February of '25. So, you know, last year 63 percent, now is 45 percent. Jasmine?

JASMINE WRIGHT, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE WASHINGTON SUN: Yeah. It's actually interesting because I had a conversation last night in North Carolina. I went to the president's rally in Greenville with a woman named Carol Quick, who is a support of the president. and I asked her, what are you seeing from your community of folks who also support the president? And she said, I haven't had a conversation with somebody who is against the president, but it's all over my Facebook.

And so, I asked her, what do you want to hear from the president tonight? Because she said that she had been struggling economically this past year too. I said, what do you want to hear from the president tonight? And she said, I want to hear his message of how you're going to turn it around. And I said, well, what happens if you don't? And she shrugged her shoulders, she said, I guess I'll still support him.

So those are the people that the president hopes that are coming out to elect Republicans up and down the ballot. She said that she will be supporting Michael Whatley, even though she understood that a lot of people aren't going to be in North Carolina. Those are the folks that you're seeing in those cross tabs that are unhappy with the economy, that say that they are struggling with the economy but still say that they support the president. The question is, are there enough of those folks still out motivated to go to the ballot? And I think that that's why you're seeing the president go to these deeply red states to try to get that base out there.

BASH: I totally agree. And if we can just put those last set of numbers up. And Dasha, I want to get your take on these as well, because again, to me, this tells the story of this election, including, as you said, Jasmine, where the president is going. These are the most ardent. This sort of bracket, demographic bracket are the most ardent Trump supporters, and he has lost almost 20 percent of them.

DASHA BURNS, WHITE HOUSE BUREAU CHIEF, POLITICO: So, what does that say about the people who aren't the most ardent supporters, who are low propensity voters that came out, decided to give him a shot, and are now not thrilled with the job that he's doing. What Jasmine was talking about reminded me of some reporting that we did a couple weeks ago on the Front Row Joes. These are talk about ardent supporters, the people that are following the president all over the country. Some of them have given up their homes. They bought RVs to make sure that they are in the front row of as many rallies as they can get to.

And they spoke to two of them recently who have had a complete 180. They dedicated years of their lives to this man, and their faith is broken, and it's broken because of the war with Iran and what that's done to the economy. They really believed him when he said no more foreign wars, and they felt that promise was broken. And the Epstein files, they are shocked and disappointed that he has sort of ignored that issue and said it's not important. And now they are -- one of them is in Texas, one of them is in Ohio. They're not going to vote.

BASH: Well, what the president is doing when he travels around, and you have been there, Jasmine, in particular, is he's sort of doing the Oprah thing. You know, you get a car and you get a car, except, you know, in a little bit more targeted way on the promise side of it. Listen to what the president has done and said in terms of promised giveaways, but it's only if Republicans win.

[12:10:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate, I am going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America, $5,000. With Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it. If the Republicans win the Department of War, we'll be investing $100 million in the pharmaceutical company Anthea to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WRIGHT: I'm not sure what that last one has to do with pharmaceuticals and Department of War. But yeah, he said that last night, he said that he would give them $5,000 if they won. The crowd honestly responded kind of tepidly. I think that there are some people who believe that $5,000 is coming. I think there are some people who have believed that other promises that the -- that President Trump promised were coming and they didn't come, and so now that they, you know, don't have a lot of faith.

BURNS: And that's the ultimate problem is, over and over again with all of those issues that you laid --

BASH: Promises made, promises kept.

WRIGHT: Yes.

BURNS: Yeah.

BASH: And you've been traveling around as well. What are you hearing?

MATTINGLY: I think the crowd reaction is a really good anecdotal window into a broader thing that I've picked up repeatedly, and swing state after swing state that I've been to, focused on the economy. The $5,000 thing, no one believes it, no one buys it, and that was actually really effective when the COVID era stimulus checks went out, and he put his name on those checks, and people remembered it forever. And even Joe Biden was like, man, I should have put my names on the checks. It doesn't work anymore.

Like, people aren't buying this stuff. They don't believe that it's real, and that's a huge, that's as big a departure as what we're seeing in the polling numbers in terms of breaking out the coalition. People just aren't buying anymore that he's going to deliver on these promises. They see through it on some level.

BASH: Well, we've talked about this incredibly toxic environment in Ohio because of an ad that Vivek Ramaswamy is running. Just moments ago, the vice president, who's in Ohio, talked about that and really commented on it for the first time. We're going to show you that after the break.

Plus, later, where to spend, where to cut losses. I'm really excited for this segment. We're going to have two top strategists who helped steer both parties' Senate campaigns. They know firsthand how ruthless calculations happening right now behind the scenes are going. Stay with me.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: Right now, Vice President Vance is in Cincinnati, Ohio, to campaign with Ohio Republicans who are on the ballot, led by Senator Jon Husted and candidate for Governor Vivek Ramaswamy. Moments ago, the vice president commented on a Ramaswamy ad that has roiled the state's governor's race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J. D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT: I'll be honest with you, whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern. What is my concern is who is going to govern the next generation of American government, who is going to win the Senate race in the state of Ohio, who is going to win the governor's race in the state of Ohio. And I got to be honest that when I see Republicans, people in my party reacting so strongly, especially elected officials, look, have the opinion you want to have on that ad.

If you think it was too tough, say it was too tough. If you think it wasn't tough enough, say that. But I have to admit that I'm a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America.

Politics is a tough business, and my message to my fellow elected Republicans is, if you actually believe in the things, you say you believe in, stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: So, the ad that the vice president is admonishing Republicans for criticizing is one that features the estranged mother of Democrat Amy Acton, Ramaswamy's Democratic opponent. Now, before we play the ad, keep in mind that Acton says she hasn't seen her own mother since she was 12 years old and was removed from her mother's custody over allegations of sexual abuse by her mother's husband.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: Ramaswamy is putting $4 million behind the ad that you just saw. Now, Amy Acton's stepfather was indicted on child sex abuse charges. That's according to court documents provided by the Acton campaign. He fled with her mother while out on bail. My panel is here now. Before we start having this conversation, I do want to play a new ad that the Acton campaign released with her brother telling their side of the story.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

[12:20:00]

BASH: Native son of Ohio, Phil Mattingly, talk about this, not just sort of the ad and the way it's being reacted to in Ohio and elsewhere, which I want you to hear about. But what we just heard for the first time from the vice president, which is admonishing Republicans for criticizing the ad that we just ran.

MATTINGLY: Yeah, disgusted. I believe was the word, the exact word that he used, not for the ad or what it delves into, without the context that the campaign has put out via actual court documents, but that Republicans would criticize somebody. These things aren't mutually exclusive. You can criticize an ad and still want Republicans to win a race and still oppose Democratic policies. The idea that it's not, I think, is absurd and juvenile, and frankly, means he didn't have a better answer here. And I think that's probably the most important thing to keep in mind.

There's a reason you haven't heard from Jon Husted yet. It'll be fascinating to hear what he says on this, given the fact that I think there's some Ohio Republicans who believe that Vivek Ramaswamy is underperformance up to this point and inability to not just -- not be ahead of Amy Acton right now would be down by pretty in poll after poll 4, 5, 6, points. In a state that's turned so sharply red has been frustrating to other Republicans who are on the ballot right now, Jon Husted included.

I would just close with this, like as we were sitting here, I texted an Ohio Republican that I've talked to for a long time, who really understands the state in these races, and his response was, what the actual bleep.

BASH: To Vance, just the whole thing --

MATTINGLY: No, not Vance, about the ad.

BASH: Yeah.

MATTINGLY: Just that they would go down this path right now and why.

BASH: But I think that the point that you're making speaks to the question I have about Vance's reaction because his reaction was about strategy.

MATTINGLY: Yeah.

BASH: And from what I'm hearing is the Republicans in Ohio are scared to death that unless the other Republicans distance themselves from this ad, it's going to drag them down as well.

BURNS: Well, yeah. I mean the strategy is all over the map, and actually, what this ad reveals in large part, and I think it's why some Republicans may want to distance themselves is that in the closing weeks of the campaign, this is what they have to talk about. In part because the Ramaswamy campaign, along with other Republicans have struggled to find an affirmative message that works with voters.

We had a MAGA Inc. operative comment on this in Playbook this morning, who said, if you don't have a way to tell voters what you're going to do to improve their lives right now. If you don't have five things you're talking about every single day on the campaign trail, you're likely going to lose. And the fact that they're leading the final two weeks with this is indicative of the moment.

BASH: And let's just show the snapshot of where this race is, at least the latest CNN Poll of Polls. Amy Acton, the Democrat, is up 50 percent, Ramaswamy at 44 percent. So that gives you a sense of why this is the Hail Mary, as it were by Ramaswamy. Part of what Vance is referring to is really an avalanche of criticism from Republicans that you almost never hear from -- including on topics like this, including Nikki Haley, who was on the debate stage in 2024, running against Ramaswamy. Just seeing what we tried to tell everyone back then about Ramaswamy, he's a bad guy. It's a shame he continues to get away with it. I mean, wow.

WRIGHT: I mean, that's -- that is an extreme statement there, coming from his -- coming for his personal, look, every Republican strategist that I've talked to about this ad has basically said that you don't put an ad out like this if you believe that the polls are wrong and if you believe that your campaign is winning, point blank period.

Another person pointed out to me, and I think that this is a really interesting point, which is that Vivek and his campaign are basically betting on the idea that a Republican voter in Ohio is going to see this ad and then do no additional research into this idea. Because if you did do more additional research, I think you would find yourself coming away very sad and very kind of gross feeling about this ad. But if you don't and you just take it for point blank, then you know, perhaps you do get a voter. But again, that's a risky bet, and I think that's why you're seeing other Republicans in the state distance themselves.

MATTINGLY: Yeah. It's also why you saw the Acton campaign come out very before the Ramaswamy team had actually taken credit for the ad --

BURNS: Put money behind it.

MATTINGLY: --put money behind it. They were out with the ad with the brother. They were out with the court documents. They were ready for this, and they moved very, very fast, knowing that they've got to try and meet the zone being flooded by this.

BASH: She did not want to debate him. There has not been a debate, which he noted in his -- in his statement, and perhaps, this is one of the reasons; ugly, heated, and personal. All right, moving on to a different race, different issues, but the Michigan Senate race is white hot, and there's going to be another debate tonight between the two candidates; Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Jeff Zeleny is in Michigan with what to watch for.

[12:25:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: It's round two in Michigan tonight. Senate candidates Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed face off in the second debate of this razor- thin race. CNN's Poll of Polls keeps the race with no clear leader. CNN's Jeff Zeleny is in Detroit.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Dana, this final debate tonight in Michigan is really going to be closely watched by all sides because the race between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed has been one of the most contentious in the country. Of course, it's also at the center of the Democrats' hope to win control of the Senate. They need to hold this, plus win four other seats. Without this, that goes up to five, making it much more difficult. But this race has had so many cross currents, foreign policy, domestic policy. President Trump hanging over the race. He, in fact, is coming here on Sunday.

I'm told Mike Rogers will be campaigning with him