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Inside Politics

Trump Red-State Campaign Blitz Hits Iowa; Why Is Michigan The Ultimate Swing State?; Marshall Name-Checks Schumer 17 Times In Final Kansas Debate; Hamilton Wavers On Policy Specifics In Final Debate; El-Sayed, Rogers Spar Over Trump In Final Michigan Debate; Robert Kraft's Blue Square Alliance Raises $32 Million To Fight Antisemitism And Hate. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 22, 2026 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00]

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: -- months ago, Ashley Hinson did not appear. She said she had a scheduling conflict. We have seen Hinson standing next to Trump, but that's in the Oval Office, citing various different bills that do benefit Iowa.

In terms of campaigning, it was a real question as to whether or not she was going to show up, because in the CNN polls of polls, which we have just pulled up here, there is no clear leader. In fact, you have one person, Josh Turek, the Democrat, leading by 1 percentage point here, and that is, again, in the margin of error.

And I do want to show you something about the average gas prices in Iowa. And take a look here. This is what it is today, $4.12. What it was a month ago, $4.36, so it's gone down. But what it was a year ago? $2.81.

Again, a lot of this is going to come down to, no matter what President Trump says, people are feeling it on their pocketbooks, and it's hard to go against that when you're out there.

DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, yes, no question about that. And that doesn't even account for diesel. The fact that he's now announced that he's going to Mississippi is a whole other discussion that I know will be happening --

HOLMES: Wild.

BASH: -- when he makes that trip.

Kristen, thanks so much for that reporting. Appreciate it.

Up next, from Florida, Florida, Florida, and so goes Ohio, so goes the nation, it is all about Michigan.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:35:33] BASH: We've spent a lot of time in the lead-up to this year's midterm elections on the all-important Michigan Senate race. Why is Michigan such a swingy state? I went to the Wolverine State to find out for the latest installment of CNN Explains on CNN All Access.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Let's look specifically at the state of Michigan. It's very much --

BASH (voice-over): If it's an election year, you'll probably find me in Michigan.

BASH: And here I am again. And it's not just because I'm covering the 2026 midterm elections, it's because the day after the election, 2028 begins.

BASH (voice-over): And for the last five presidential elections, it really is as Michigan goes, so goes the nation. And what happens this year in this very competitive Michigan Senate race will almost certainly influence the Democratic presidential primary.

BASH: One reason is a specific kind of voter.

If he were on the ballot again, would you vote for him?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

BASH: Do you consider yourself a swing voter?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I do now.

BASH (voice-over): So why does it always seem to be Michigan? And why are these voters so swingy?

To be fair, it's not just Michigan. It's also Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These three were the blue wall for years until --

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Donald Trump didn't just breach Hillary Clinton's so-called blue wall of defense, he shattered it.

BASH (voice-over): Winning these three states and their 44 Electoral College votes is crucial to winning the presidency.

BASH: And honestly, if there were competitive Senate races there, I'd be talking to you from Milwaukee or the suburbs of Philadelphia. But the competitive race is right here.

You want to do it like this?

DANTE CHINNI, AMERICAN COMMUNITIES PROJECT: Yes, of course. Michigan, Detroit.

BASH (voice-over): To find out who makes it so swingy, I spoke with data journalist and Michigan native Dante Chinni. CHINNI: Too much of the time, I think we spent talking about red places and blue places. And places are red and blue for different reasons.

BASH (voice-over): His American Communities Project takes different demographic and economic factors and groups counties into 15 types of communities.

CHINNI: With that, we can understand a lot more than just how they voted. We can try to understand why they vote the way they do.

BASH: The fact that Michigan has eight of the 15 --

CHINNI: Yes.

BASH: -- is that high?

CHINNI: It's pretty high. I mean, for the size state it is, yes. And --

BASH: So that tells us why Michigan is so important.

CHINNI: It's a pretty diverse place. It's like, you've got Wayne County, where Detroit is, is always going to go Democratic. We have these types that we call college towns. The urban suburbs, like Grand Rapids on the western side of the state, those places are solidly liberal.

On the Republican side, you've got all the rural areas up north, these blue places that we call graying America, this kind of aqua that we call rural middle America, and then these yellow places we call the exurbs. These are the Republican vote. It's a question of what you get out of these middle suburb counties.

BASH (voice-over): These are the swing counties, and they're the areas that tie the blue wall together.

CHINNI: You look at the map, the middle suburbs are really --

BASH: This is so -- wait, I'm sorry --

CHINNI: This is just the middle suburbs.

BASH: That's so cool.

CHINNI: So where they're clustered, right? It's Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

BASH: Shockingly, those are some of the biggest swing states in the country.

When I started just learning about politics, I heard about Macomb County, Michigan. It's the home of the Reagan Democrat, the ultimate swing voter. And so here we are again in Macomb County because it is still the home of the ultimate swing voter.

BASH (voice-over): It's also the home of the auto industry. I stopped by Coonan Brewery, a favorite auto worker's watering hole.

JEREMY FELICE, CLINTON, MI: Almost my whole family's been union my entire adult life.

BILL KUSMIERZ, FRASER, MI was on the assembly line, 33 years.

DAVID GRIFFIN: Economy changed, you know, competition globally.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three of the four plants I worked with, they've been shut down.

BASH (voice-over): In Michigan, about a third of voters consider themselves Independent, and nearly everyone I spoke to, even if they had voted all with one party, would still often call themselves Independent.

BASH: Did you vote one way or another, or have you gone back and forth?

BOB GUZOWSKI: I generally vote Republican.

GRIFFIN: I tend to be Independent, but I would probably lay a little bit more Democratic.

FELICE: My parents are very purple, back and forth. They voted for Obama and Trump. If any Republican did something about health care, I have no problem voting for that person. I'm about who they are, not the letter behind their name, you know?

BASH: Historically, UAW was, you're a Democrat because you're a union guy. Is that still the case?

[12:40:00]

KUSMIERZ: With me, yes, but not, I've noticed now, yes, we have a lot of union workers have gone, and I think not, per se, the Republican Party, but Donald Trump. In my mind, there's a difference.

CHINNI: These voters are not Republicans. They're Trump voters. Here's what the presidential vote looks like in the Middle Suburb since 2000. Look at when Trump comes on the scene. That's a 13-point win for Donald Trump --

BASH: Wow.

CHINNI: -- in 2016. We did some analysis looking at the average median household income in 2000 and then 2024. The Middle Suburbs, they are making, when you adjust for inflation, about $7,000 less. They've really taken a beating.

The manufacturing jobs also have just disappeared. Like, 22 percent of all the jobs in the Middle Suburbs were manufacturing in 2000. It's now down to 16 percent. That's a drop of about 6 percentage points.

It's also a loss of about 200,000 jobs. They're angry. And Donald Trump, coming along with his message to make America great again, resonated with them.

BASH: Are you angry?

DAWN AUBREY: I'm very angry. I pass a homeless shelter every day on my way to work, and there are more and more people waiting on the outside to get in. I mean, there's a reason for that. People cannot afford to live right now.

BASH (voice-over): I watched a Senate debate with voters at the Detroit Bar and Grill, and it's clear that no matter how they vote, the frustrations that propelled Donald Trump 10 years ago are still palpable.

KEITH WILDER: Back in the day when my parents were Democrats, they represented the working class. They've lost that. They've moved so far to the left. You can love who you want. You can worship who you want, but it can't be things that conflict with the beliefs of true America.

There's no reason to be ashamed of being American. And I'm tired of the white guilt. I'm tired of all these things that are going on in this country. This is how the people that I work with feel.

We love our country. We don't want to lose it. That's the truth.

BASH: And you voted for Trump all three times.

ANDY AUBREY: I did vote for Trump.

BASH: How do you feel about it?

A. AUBREY: A little disillusioned these days.

BASH: You are?

A. AUBREY: Yes. We'll put it this way. I've got a grand Cherokee, and I never had to pay $100 to fill it up until last week. A lot of overpromising, underperforming by Trump.

CHINNI: Once you promise all that, and you don't deliver, this group of voters in these places has really been whipsawed back and forth by people promising to fix things for them, and it never quite works out.

BASH: Sounds like you're saying that when you look at the data, what you're seeing is the reason Michigan is so swingy, it's because it's promise after promise made, and promise after promise not kept.

CHINNI: I think that's right. When Trump exits the stage, this is going to get a lot wavier again. My guess is these lines will come together closer again, and it's going to look a little different.

BASH: After this election, and when Trump is gone, there's going to be a reckoning, not just about the Republican Party, but about the Democratic Party because as sort of down on Trump as some people are, they're also pretty down on the Democratic Party.

CURTIS HERTEL, MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: I think that's because people have seen that their lives have gotten harder, and we're not talking about the problems that need to be solved for them. It has become almost impossible for one person or family to have two, you know, jobs with their hands and survive in America. And the party that solves that problem is the one that will actually win moving forward.

BASH (voice-over): There isn't just a far-left Democrat testing whether his progressive ideas can win in a purple state. There's also a more moderate Democrat running for governor. And the question is, will these swing voters go for a Democrat, and which kind, and by how much? Or will they vote Republican?

BASH: And how each of them does in all of the key parts of this state will be picked apart. It will be analyzed. Donors will look at it. Potential candidates and campaign managers will look at it. To try to figure out how they're going to run here in 2028, and whether they're going to run hard in 2028 in Michigan.

REP. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D), NEW YORK: Once you elect one person like that, people will then catch on. And we will start electing more people like that in the United States.

(APPLAUSE)

BASH: It's not just the general election in 2028 that's going to make Michigan so important as it always is. This time, it's the primary for Democrats.

BASH (voice-over): In the last competitive Democratic primary, Michigan didn't vote until after Super Tuesday. In 2028, they'll be fifth.

BASH: How important is the 2028 change for how the Democrats elect the next nominee for president?

HERTEL: I think it's incredibly important. We are the most diverse battleground state in the country, economically, racially, geographically. And I think that's really, really important. If you want to win America, you have to win Michigan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[12:45:08]

BASH: Up next, two debates in two deadlocked Senate races that could have a major impact on who controls the Senate.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: Seventeen, that's how many times Republican Senator Roger Marshall name-checked Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, in last night's Kansas Senate debate. Warning Kansans that a vote for his Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton, could end up flipping the Senate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. ROGER MARSHALL (R), KANSAS: My opponent's going to say anything he can to lie to get into that office and give control to Chuck Schumer. And you would stand right there beside Chuck Schumer.

He gets control of this seat. He'll give control to the U.S. Senate, to Schumer. If Chuck Schumer is in control, the Democrat party under Chuck Schumer.

ADAM HAMILTON (D), KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: We've heard Chuck Schumer mentioned, I don't know, 50 times, maybe. I'm going to exaggerate, maybe 20 times so far. I find that interesting. I've already said I wouldn't support Chuck Schumer for Senate Majority Leader if the Democrats to control the Senate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:50:09]

BASH: Seventeen. Nia?

NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. You know, listen, he's trying to sort of nationalize this race. Roger Marshall has had a very, very tough time there explaining some of the things that he's done as an OB-GYN, suing patients and one woman arrested for failing to pay 50 bucks. So, yes, change the topic to Chuck Schumer because that helps him sort of nationalize it and make it bigger than himself.

BASH: And Adam, just want to play a little bit more of the debate. And this is some questions to Hamilton, who is a pastor of a megachurch, never been in politics before, about some policy issues. Here's how he answered.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To clarify, what federal regulations could you support? You clearly do. So which one?

HAMILTON: Yes, you know what? I'm not sure, to be honest.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Where do you draw the line on providing that support that farms that can't year after year support themselves?

HAMILTON: Yes, you know what? I'm not sure. I won't -- I don't really have an answer to that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What about the retirement age, raising it for younger workers?

HAMILTON: I think that's something we need to look at, but I'm not committing to that right now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Adam, your takeaway?

ADAM WREN, CO-AUTHOR, POLITICO PLAYBOOK: Yes, I mean, he was -- Hamilton was very sort of short on specifics. It sort of underscores the fact that his campaign is very vibes-y. He's surfing a negative environment in Kansas and nationally. And that is why his opponent, Marshall, is trying to nationalize the race, connecting him to Chuck Schumer.

In fact, it felt like I was taking a time machine back to 2018 and those midterms. I mean, this is a line of attack that you would hear frequently back then, connecting a candidate to Schumer. And so, yes, I do think that Hamilton, his appeal is that he doesn't sound like other Democrats. But in this case, Marshall was able to put him on his heels when it came to policy specifics that he'll have to deal with in D.C.

BASH: Yes, nationalizing the race very much goes both ways. The reason this is even in play is because Donald Trump is so underwater.

Jeff, you were in Michigan for several days. I want to play a little bit of the debate last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: You stand hip to hip with Donald Trump on all of his worst policies. The policies that are raising the price of your gas, making it impossible to afford your groceries. And you're going to hear a form of MAGA bingo, because the thing about MAGA is whenever they're talking, they are trying to distract you.

MIKE ROGERS (R), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: The bingo game ought to be how many times can he put the word Trump in any answer that he has given in the last, whatever, 30 minutes. It's ridiculous. This is really about the best way forward for Michigan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Jeff, I'm sensing a theme that crosses from race to race that are neck and neck.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: I mean, there's no question about it. I mean, the -- really all the candidates are trying to dispatch with the political baggage from their own parties. I mean, that's what's so striking about this. But from the Adam Hamilton, his biggest challenge, there's no doubt, is being potentially a part of the Democratic majority.

That is not Abdul El-Sayed's biggest challenge. His biggest challenge is sort of defining himself. But I was struck in Michigan last night by the degree to which just the disconnect between how Mike Rogers was describing the economy and the conditions of things sounds completely at odds with what the President says.

There was no golden age of the economy. So the -- all of that is going to sort of come to a head on Sunday in Port Huron, Michigan, when the President arrives there. I'm told Mike Rogers will be on stage. He'll be at the rally. And that is going to be very interesting, because Mike Rogers has been at the forefront of Republican candidates trying to move away from the President. The entire Democratic strategy is to tie him to the President here. So both parties have some baggage that they're scrambling to get away from.

BASH: Yes. I mean, if Mike Rogers is going around campaigning on the golden age of the economy in Michigan, he would probably be laughed out of the state, as you well know, from being on the ground, as I was.

ZELENY: No doubt.

BASH: Thanks to you all. Really appreciate it.

And before we go in this divisive environment, I want to take a moment and highlight a night where people came together to support an organization dedicated to fighting hate. The GOAT himself, you see him there, Tom Brady, legendary rocker Jon Bon Jovi, and so many others gathered to support the Blue Square Alliance, which was founded in 2019 by Patriots owner and philanthropist Robert Kraft, with the goal of combating Jewish hate and all kinds of hate.

The evening raised an astonishing $32 million. Now, on this show, we report a lot on the hundreds of millions spent on politics. It's nice to see millions raised to promote projects to unite people and try to make the world a better place.

[12:55:00]

Thank you so much for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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