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Inside Politics

Cook Political Report Moves 19 House Races Toward Democrats; Gas Prices Surge In Michigan, Ohio Because Of Refinery Problem; Cook Now Predicts Democrats Will Pick Up 12 To 22 Seats; Speaker Johnson Predicts GOP Hold House By Small Margin; Ramaswamy Defends Incendiary Ad Against Amy Acton; Trump: I Told Ramaswamy Not To Take Down Ad With Rival's Mother. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 23, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't know why he would choose to become a part of this story. Politically speaking, I would think it would be most prudent for him to just stay the heck out of it and likewise for the president. The difference between the president and the vice president, the difference between the president and everybody else, is that Donald Trump has nine lives.

And Donald Trump can just take a page from that Roy Cohn playbook and deny, deny, deny and obfuscate. And tomorrow there's something else that hell, have moved on to, nothing sticks to him, nothing has stuck to him. I don't think that's going to be the case in a post Trump era. And I'm talking specifically about 2028. I think it comes back to haunt, Vance. I might be wrong. We'll see.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN CO-ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: We will see. Michael Smerconish, thanks as usual. And Michael's live every Saturday morning here on CNN, 9 a.m. Eastern. We'll be watching Saturday morning. And to our viewers, thanks very much for joining us this morning. We'll see you back here Monday morning. Inside Politics with our friend and colleague Dana Bash starts right now.

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Today, even more Republican incumbents have reason to fret. A new analysis from Cook says House Democrats won't just win, they could have their biggest majority in 16 years.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 11 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and all around the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. The Cook Political Report is moving 19, count them, 19 House races towards Democrats. That includes moving Republican incumbents Juan Ciscomani, Gabe Evans, Jen Kiggans, and Derrick Van Orden from toss-up to lean Democrats. And open Republican seats in Kentucky and Texas from lean Republican to toss-up. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Manu Raju yesterday, he's confident about taking the majority.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): It's very likely we're going to get this done. We have extraordinary candidates. The issue environment is clearly on our side, and the American people clearly and decisively have concluded that Democrats, not Republicans, are best positioned to deal with the issues they want addressed related to the economy, to combating inflation and to lowering the high cost of living.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Cook is now predicting a Democratic pickup between 12 and 22 House seats. Elon Musk has now given nearly half a billion dollars to Republicans just this cycle. The world's richest man is by far the largest donor in the midterm races and one of the largest political donors ever. Much of that is going to the Texas Senate race, where Musk is trying to help Ken Paxton over the finish line, and now Democrat James Talarico is hoping to use that against his opponent.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: And the tale of the two Dan Sullivan has taken another turn. The Trump administration is preemptively suing the state of Alaska, seeking to block certification if its Senate results of the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan turned out to be that he loses. The lawsuit says that Dan J. Sullivan being on the ballot will confuse voters and could swing the election to Democrat Mary Peltola. The Alaskan Supreme Court already rejected efforts to remove Dan J. Sullivan, the non-incumbent senator from the ballot.

And this isn't what Mike Rogers or Jon Husted wanted to see. Gas prices in Michigan and Ohio are exploding this week. AAA says the average price of gas in Michigan has surged by 33 cents in two days to $4.77 a gallon. In Ohio, prices have surged by 39 cents to $4.37 a gallon. Analysts say the reason isn't Iran, but an outage at an oil refinery in Illinois.

I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters today, including Erin Covey with the Cook Political Report to walk us through the ratings that you guys just put out, we just gave the top lines. What else do you want us to know?

ERIN COVEY, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES EDITOR, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Well, the bulk of these seats that we're moving are in states like Texas and North Carolina where the statewide factors are really hampering Republican enthusiasm, and that has a trickledown effect on all of these House races. We moved four seats in Texas, a column to the left. These are all seats that have pretty significant Hispanic populations as well, where of course we're seeing really dramatic reversion among voters who voted for Trump by wide margins in 2024, but are now swinging back towards Democrats.

[12:05:00]

BASH: And it's really the incumbents. This is how we started this program and we're going to show you who we're talking about four Republican incumbents, most of whom are already in swing seats are now moving from toss-up to lean Democrat. Juan Ciscomani, Republican now lean Dem. Gabe Evans lean Dem. Jen Kiggans lean Dem. Derrick Van Orden lean Dem. And then, if you go down to the next tier, you have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 that also are moving from a more comfortable place as Republicans towards the Democrats.

COVEY: Yeah. Three of the members who are moving into the lean Democrat column, they're sitting in seats that Trump won by less than five points in 2020.

BASH: So, we're talking about Begich?

COVEY: We're talking about Ciscomani.

BASH: Oh, -- of the identity incumbents, yes.

COVEY: Kiggans and Evans, they are in very tough seats.

BASH: Those are true swing states.

COVEY: They really are.

BASH: Yeah.

COVEY: And even if they are overperforming, what a generic Republican is going to do in that seat, they're still the underdogs.

BASH: Yeah. And then I just want to go to Texas. You were talking about some of the races that have moved. Another way to look at it, which we have up on the screen, is in Texas and in Florida. We know that, at the best of the White House, these states engaged in mid- decade gerrymandering with the hopes of turning seats red even before people started voting. It doesn't look like that's the way it's headed right now. Now again, it's early. People are just starting to vote, but they were hoping for five, and only one, Texas 32 is solid GOP, and in Florida, only one, Florida nine is even likely GOP.

COVEY: Yeah. I mean these gerrymanders, it's not like they have backfired for Republicans in the sense that they're better off than they were before they redrew the seats, but they're not performing as well as they'd hoped because the environment is so bad for them right now. And so, in Florida, I think going into this, Republicans were aware that all four of these seats still had the potential to be competitive. And to be clear, they could end up picking up, you know, three out of four of these seats, but they're going to be much closer, much more expensive races than they had anticipated this spring.

BASH: David?

DAVID WEIGEL, POLITICS REPORTER, SEMAFOR: I like the way you put it, because yes, Republicans are going to get a boost from this, but they did. If you heard Mike Johnson talk about it, this was going to lock up the House, and it didn't lock up the House and it didn't. They were spending tens of millions of dollars. I think if you add it all up on seats that they thought they could walk away from. They also have candidates who were not prepared to run in a tough environment. This is a case in North Carolina, where especially the Appalachian District outside Asheville, drawn to elect a Republican, elected two Republicans who resigned because of scandals or lost because of scandal, resigned because of a scandal. And you have a Republican who's just never had to work for it before and never had to raise that much money, and a Democrat who was ready for the climate. This is what Democrats were saying you.

Hakeem Jeffries was -- this is what recruitment is for. It doesn't work if it turns against you like he did in 2020. They just don't see the same factors coming out for Republicans as happened in 2020. There is no Donald Trump on the ballot to convince these people, so they cannot ride his coattails.

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES & CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: It's so fascinating because whenever you've been reporting on what is the political strategy of the White House and the Republicans. You would often hear, it's the maps. It's also redistricting. It's not just going out and talking about this issue or this issue, it's the structure, right? And the fact that the frustration across the country is so high that it's actually overcoming the changes they made to the structure. That really tells a story of this -- of this election cycle.

You mentioned Texas as well. I think you mentioned the Hispanic vote. That's a good example where you had a coalition that had moved towards the president, but then you had the frustration with his immigration policies going above and beyond what people expected. That's according to reporting and polls. You combine that with the economic frustration, and you have the current environment that you're at.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, and that's why, you know, when you talk to sources around the White House and Trump's allies and advisors, it really feels as though James Blair is going to get the brunt of this when Republicans likely lose the House, and that's because he was not only, you know, the brains behind the redistricting, but also, was proudly the brains behind the redistricting.

Now, again, you know, as both of you have noted, it's not necessarily that down the road they won't pick up more seats, they could still pick up the seats in Florida. It's just the climate. And so, regardless of, the strategy still would have held had they done it. I mean, we've talked about it for months how this was going to change the electorate that this was giving Republicans picking up seats and all these things. But the climate in the country is so bad, and one that really the White House and the political operation did not anticipate.

BASH: Right. I mean, when James Blair and others at the White House pushed for this redistricting. They didn't anticipate the ramifications of an Iran war that would still be going on now. The tariffs may be a little bit different. I want to read a quote from Mike Johnson. You talked about Mike Johnson saying, you know, we're going to be fine in Texas.

[12:10:00]

Well, let's look at what he's saying right now about the overall view, despite the ratings that you just showed us. This is to punch bowl. I want you to record that I am laughing out loud about that. Them meaning Democrats projecting 230 seats is hilarious. There is no way

It is true that some Democrats are getting so bullish that they 230 is kind of the -- maybe the magic number because if you look back at the big gains that Democrats made in the last two elections where they made big gains, it was in that 230, 231, 232 kind of ballpark and he's being very bullish on the fact that that it's not going to happen.

COVEY: I mean, that's quite bullish. That's the center of our range right now. We have it set at Democrats picking up 227 to 237 seats, which you know, that's only 12 to 22 seats they're picking up. It's not like this wave is going to result in Democrats flipping 40 seats, despite what some of them might be hoping for. But they're starting at such a high floor compared to where they were at going into the 2018 and 2006 midterms. They already have 215 seats. They don't need to pick up a lot to get to the magic number.

BASH: Yeah, well, we'll see -- we'll see who's right there. Don't go anywhere because we've got breaking news. Vivek Ramaswamy just spoke to reporters about his controversial ad that President Trump is getting asked about again and again. Plus, are Republicans in danger of losing ground they've recently gained with a key demographic? We were just talking about it, Latino voters. We're talking to two top political advisors, Republican and Democrat about that. Stay with us.

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[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: Breaking news in Ohio, where the Republican candidate for governor, Vivek Ramaswamy just defended his campaign's ad against his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. The ad, of course, features Acton's estranged mother saying that she lies. CNN's Lauren Fox is in Strongsville, Ohio, where the candidate spoke to reporters. What did Vivek Ramaswamy say, Lauren?

LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. Essentially, he's standing down -- standing by this ad, excuse me, Dana, and he's doubling down on it, saying that he respectfully disagrees with Governor Mike DeWine's comments yesterday that he needed to take this ad down. He said that the media hasn't covered it every single time that one of their attack ads has gone after him or his family, and he therefore thinks that this ad should remain on air. He made it very clear, and he even talked about Donald Trump's comments supporting him that he is standing by it.

I do want to point out that I asked him specifically about whether or not he has any doubts about Amy Acton's story from her childhood. And if he has any doubts that she was sexually abused by her stepfather, which a grand jury found him guilty of, and he really deflected that question. But I just want to also say that this is one of those moments where he wasn't going to take questions from reporters, Dana, and then essentially, we were all waiting for him after this event and he did stop and take two questions. But here's what he said about why he is standing by this ad. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VIVEK RAMASWAMY, (D) OHIO GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: Her mother has spoken since 2020. I've never met Amy Acton. I've never met or spoken to her mother. But I do think that if a candidate has repeatedly told lies in this campaign as she has, and she is called out for it by a lot of people who are close to her, from the state physicians to people who worked for her to now another person who's close for her. I think that in the standard of political advertising that they have used and that the media regularly accepts, I think it is absolutely acceptable for voters to hear and make a decision for themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOX: And you heard there, Dana. He said that it's totally appropriate to use people who are close to Amy Acton who are calling her a liar. I would just point out that Amy Acton has said herself, she has not seen her mother since she was 12 years old and she was taken from her custody. Dana?

BASH: Lauren, thank you so much for getting that new reaction, or maybe even action from Vivek Ramaswamy. Appreciate it. And Zolan, this is -- and I'm going to play some of President Trump this morning. But this is part of the current Trump-esque playbook, which you can almost see the president directing from the Oval Office or even from the South Lawn, which is go for it, go big, Roy Cohn.

Don't take your foot off the gas, but also do it so that you get some credit, or maybe even get some new votes from people who are exhausted by the economy and other reasons don't want to vote from the conservative base. That is the strategy right now from Vivek Ramaswamy with the help from the president.

KANNO-YOUNGS: Agreed. It's that sort of Roy Cohn sort of fight, fight, fight, don't give in and turn it into a -- this is actually us versus the Democrats and the media who are attacking us over this.

BASH: Correct.

KANNO-YOUNGS: A couple things that are different, though, about this scenario. One, the actual issue is incredibly sensitive. Like we shouldn't get lost in that. Just as we talk about the politics of this, this actually has to do with sexual abuse, right, and claims of sexual abuse. Two, this isn't just Democrats in the media. You've had a number of Republicans that have come out and criticized this, criticized the continued running of this ad.

[12:20:00]

In fact, effectively, it sort of seems like it's J. D. Vance, Ramaswamy, and Donald Trump on one side. And a lot of people expressing concerns about it, both Republicans and Democrats on the other, including Republicans in Ohio. The other thing that's different about this that I just find interesting is usually you might have the candidate that's under scrutiny reach out to Donald Trump. Donald Trump be the person to double down, and then everyone follow his lead.

This one was a little different where you had the vice president actually come out and double down on it, then Donald Trump, and now you have Ramaswamy as well doubling down. I mean, it was expected once Trump leaned into this that you wouldn't see Ramaswamy sort of back away. Trump still has takes the lead on the Democratic Party -- on the Republican Party has a grip on it, but this is a different one. This is a different scenario here.

BASH: Let's listen to a little bit of the president this morning as he was leaving for Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Now that you know the backstory about Amy Acton and her stepfather and why she hasn't talked to her mom for so long. Her stepfather was indicted for rape. Now that you know all that, sir, do you change your mind about the ad, you know, by her after her husband --

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Look, you don't know that. You don't know that. You don't know anything. Her mother stood by, didn't stand by. Her mother went on television and said that the daughter who's running for governor of Ohio is a liar and a bad person, and that's all I know.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: He keeps comparing this to a situation if his own mother went out and criticized, which he is -- he knows --

HOLMES: He's conflating. Yes.

BASH: He's intentionally conflating what a regular run-of-the-mill mother would or wouldn't do with regard to their daughter versus what we saw in this ad. And I'm going to play it, and I want people -- people can judge for themselves whether they think that she looks as credible and earnest as the president is alleging.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

HOLMES: A couple of things. I mean, Amy Acton hasn't spoken to her mother in 50 years because of this. Because her mother stayed married to the man who was indicted for sexually abusing her. She has no relationship with this woman. And I mean, Donald Trump is really presenting here a Donald Trump special when he is up there, trying to defend this ad, which is take out the part that is sensitive, that's making people's skin crawl, that is uncomfortable, that is why people are asking them to take down the ad. Leave it out completely, say you don't know anything about it. And then turn it into a completely different issue, which is a mother saying that their own daughter is a liar without any of the backstory. He wants to continue to double down on this, to say those lines over and over again because he knows that people listen when he is speaking, and he's going to take out anything that makes this sensitive to double down on this because he wants the candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to win and he wants this ad out there. I mean, he knows exactly what this is. First of all, it's been told to him, I mean, a dozen times by reporters. This idea that like every single day he's shocked to hear the news. It's like, we so heard it yesterday before --

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: Right, exactly.

KANNO-YOUNGS: --when it comes to the sensitive issues or getting asked questions about it, he sort of acts like a bystander or spectator to the event, but then he's still willing to lean in --

BASH: But let's remember why he's framing it this way and why Ramaswamy is framing it as, this is just an example of a double standard by the Democrats, by the media. It is all an attempt to get -- and I said it before, I just want to emphasize this because this is what it's all about and it's dirty campaigning to do that. But this is what's going on with just 11 days left. He's behind in the polls and wants to try to goose that Republican vote that is depressed.

WEIGEL: Yeah. And I can step back to what the Ramaswamy had been doing this year. They had not been pushing him ahead in a state that the president won by double digits. An argument he made on the air quite a lot, made at rallies quite a lot, is that Amy Acton was basically emotionally incontinent and has problems with drinking. There was one ad which Republicans did not condemn. They were not as offended by that. That has a stand-in for Amy Acton falling asleep drunk on a couch.

And so, he has been trying to -- basically, this is in the vein of what he's been campaigning about. That he is a strong, fast-talking business leader. She's incompetent. That's totally been lost by the back -- by the backlash to this ad. And you knew there was a backlash because there were a few hours when this was released before people knew it was from the campaign itself.

And you talk -- if you talk Republicans that day, they said, oh, maybe it's not him. That sounds like such a crazy thing to do, but it is trying to build on a very negative strategy. The coming back and saying, I'm only have to do this because she won't debate me or because she's so mean to me on her TV ads. It's a little bit --

[12:25:00]

BASH: Right. He says that she calls him a liar and nobody cares.

WEIGEL: Yeah. So, I'm glad we've established that nobody should vote for liars in American politics, but he's been -- he's been trying to do this all year. He's trying to stick to it. His closing message is not his economic agenda. It's this. And can any Republican who's not Donald Trump with -- Trump's wealth is famous because of the things he built. Ramaswamy's wealth is famous because he's very good at getting capital investment for a pharma company. He struggled to convince people, he's not a sleazy candidate, and this is why it's become a problem for him. I think when Mike DeWine talks about it, you know, in more of an outrage way, they did about his other ads. That's why.

BASH: Let me just -- as we go to break, show everybody the mood music for Ohio voters with all of this going on, and that is the price of gas. $4.37 a gallon, up 33 cents in only two days. We don't have it, but I'm telling you that is what it is. And it's not good and that is the economic reality in Ohio, where the president has done extremely well for 10 years.

All right, up next. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces a tough re- election. Is her challenger a democratic socialist, a capitalist, both? CNN's Elex Michaelson sat down with Nithya Raman and joins us next.

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