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Isa Soares Tonight
Israel Claims Responsibility for Strike in Southern Beirut; Hezbollah Commander Fuad Shukr Survived Israeli Strike. Aired 2-3p ET
Aired July 30, 2024 - 14:00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[14:00:00]
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.
ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: Hello and a very warm welcome, everyone, I'm Isa Soares. Tonight, we begin with breaking news out of
Lebanon. Israel is claiming this hour responsibility for a strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut. It says it was targeting the Hezbollah
commander responsible for a rocket attack, you remember, in the Golan Heights that killed a dozen children.
Hezbollah has denied responsibility, but that is not stopping scenes like the ones you are seeing on your screen right now. Debris and wreckage
pretty much strewn across a packed city street. This is in Beirut in Lebanon, as you can see there. Lebanese state media report, the strike was
conducted by a drone that fired three missiles, and that at least one person was killed. We've just got that in the last few minutes.
So, let's just get more as this is developing stories, a breaking news story. I want to go to our Jeremy Diamond who's standing by in Jaffa in
Israel. Our CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton and our global affairs correspondent Matthew Chance.
Jeremy, let me go to you first, because we do have the statement from the IDF basically saying they are responsible, they carried out what they
called a targeted strike. They were looking -- they were attacking I think a number -- well, pardon me, targeted strike in Beirut on a commander --
pardon me, commander responsible for the murder of the children in Majdal Shams.
But it says at the moment, there are no changes in the home-front command defensive guidelines. What does that mean, Jeremy?
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, effectively, the home- front guidelines are the guidelines issued to civilians in Israel to tell them effectively what the risk level is at this moment in terms of military
action. It's to tell them whether to cancel large gatherings, to not go to school, to be within reach of a bomb shelter at all times.
And in this case, the Israeli military has decided not to make any changes to those guidelines, which indicates at least for the moment that they
don't anticipate that this will immediately escalate any further than it already has. But make no mistake that possibility is certainly in the air
tonight as we have seen this very significant Israeli strike hit the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Dahieh, which is notable in and
of itself for the location, given its proximity to Beirut.
But also in addition to that, it is the fact that they are targeting a senior commander in that area. They say that this commander who they have
not named in this statement, it was responsible for this rocket attack that killed 12 children in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights in the Syrian
Druze community of Majdal Shams.
It has been clear since this weekend when that rocket attack took place. When we saw the number of civilians killed, the fact that these were all
children who were killed as well, it became immediately clear that there was a possibility of escalation.
And since then, we have heard clear statements from Israeli officials vowing that there would be a severe response, vowing that Hezbollah would
have a price to pay even as Hezbollah, of course, denied responsibility for this attack.
And so now, we have finally seen what shape that response has taken as the Israeli military in just the last couple of hours carried out this strike
and then very quickly confirmed it, making clear that they wanted to send a message that as the Israeli Defense Minister says tonight, a red line was
crossed by Hezbollah in this rocket attack over the weekend, and an Israeli response was merited.
SOARES: Thanks very much, Jeremy Diamond, let's go to Cedric Leighton, who is with us. And Cedric, I think it's fair to say that many were expecting a
response, all expecting some sort of retaliation for the Golan Heights attack. What do you make of what we are learning this hour, the IDF saying
it was a targeted strike.
CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Isa, I think that is really the key thing here. And if it turns out to be true that this was a drone strike
instead of a strike with a manned aircraft, that also goes to show that the Israelis were looking for a very precise action.
[14:05:00]
They wanted to do this with a minimum of collateral damage, and that you think commensurate with some of the pressure that the Israelis have
probably received from the U.S. as well as other western nations to minimize civilian casualties in any type of response that they would make.
I think everybody expected them to make this kind of an effort that's kind of a response in response to what happened at Majdal Shams.
But the other thing that they had to consider was the fact that they needed to also minimize the possibility of civilian casualties.
SOARES: Yes, look, this is a very dangerous moment, right? This is not a war zone. This is happening as we showed our viewers streets of Beirut, and
that is absolutely terrifying. We've heard in the last few minutes from the Lebanese state media that the strike was conducted by row -- by the drone -
-- by drone that fired three missiles.
If we play the video that we played at the top of the show, I'll just ask my producer to play that out. From what we see in this video, once we
play it out, Cedric, I wonder whether you could tell us in terms of the impact. We're hearing one casualty here. What more can you -- can you
dissect from the video that we have seen so far, the images, here we go. It's playing right now.
LEIGHTON: Right, so when you look at the destruction in the street, this is commensurate with a fairly low-powered explosive. You know, something
that on the order of perhaps the 250-pound bomb or less. I and -- I say or less with emphasis in the case because it would be far greater destruction
to the buildings if a standard bomb would be used -- would have been used in this particular case, Isa.
And just so you see, you know, some of the -- you know, obviously, there's building debris in middle of their street there, some windows appear to
have blown out. I -- and there does seem to be a -- you know, a case where they looked at a very specific location within a building to go after a
very specific individual target.
So, that's what it looks like to me at the present time, and I see these are live pictures right now. I ended -- it does seem as if they're
basically in the mopping up operation, but they don't expect any secondary or tertiary of the attacks after this one, at least, that's what it looks
like right now.
SOARES: Cedric, do stay with us. Let me go to our Matthew Chance. And Matthew, look, we are in unknown territory. Yes. Israel's claimed
responsibility as we heard from our Jeremy Diamond there, but Hezbollah had said previously, Matthew, they would meet escalation with escalation,
right? Speak to the significance of this moment, and the fear of course, that this could widen out the wider conflict.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Isa, I think -- I think the question here is, is this the start of a --
SOARES: Yes --
CHANCE: Broader Israeli campaign in southern Lebanon, or will it provoke a broader campaign in southern Lebanon? Or is it just, you know, a very
limited action that was undertaken in response to those dreadful killings in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights at the weekend in which those 12
children, teenagers as well were killed.
And you know, the whole region is on a knife-edge, you know, trying to grapple with that question. I can certainly tell you -- and I've been up to
northern Israel several times since the October 7th attacks. There's a great deal of political pressure inside northern Israel -- inside Israel in
northern Israel, particularly to strike at Hezbollah, to push that group back from the northern border of Israel.
It's under -- northern Israel is under constant, not just the constant threat of missile attack, but actually under constant missile attack as
well. And it's led to whole communities being evacuated. They're not able to go back into their homes, that fright, fearful, that what happened in --
you know, from Gaza in southern Israel could happen to them in northern Israel as well.
So, there's enormous amount of political pressure. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu is feeling to strike at Hezbollah. But that has to be
balanced with the fact that Israel is exhausted. It is already --
SOARES: Yes --
CHANCE: Engaged in a bitter conflict in the south of the country inside Gaza, and just doesn't, you know, have the energy potentially. It may have
the means, but doesn't usually have the energy and the political will to go full on into Lebanon right now, not whether it escalates into something
else that has a momentum of --
SOARES: Yes --
CHANCE: Its own. We will see, but that is the issue we're confronted with tonight.
SOARES: Yes, indeed, the concern is how does Hezbollah retaliate if it indeed does retaliate to this as we have seen tit-for-tat before? Let me go
to our Ben Wedeman, who is in Beirut for us. Ben, just give us a sense of what you are learning. We're looking at these images out of Beirut, streets
are packed, you see an ambulance, we've seen some of the first scenes.
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What are you learning from authorities there, and importantly about casualties at this stage?
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, this strike happened just before 8 O'clock in the evening local time. This is a time
when the streets are crowded with people and the neighborhood where it happened, Haret Hreik in southern part of Beirut is a very crowded populous
neighborhoods.
Now, that is where many of Hezbollah's leaders operate out of. But that's also where hundreds of thousands of civilians live as well. Now, we're
hearing from the national news agency, the official Lebanese news agency that at least one woman was killed and several others injured.
There are reports in the local media that hospitals in the area are calling for donations of blood as well. Also, I'm hearing that people are lining
up, queuing up at petrol stations to fill because this is an event that although it comes to their surprise in terms of the time and the place,
the fact that it happened was no surprise at all because it was widely expected that there would be some sort of Israeli response to the attack on
Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.
They left 12 people dead. But the other day, I was speaking with the Foreign Minister of Lebanon who told me that they --the Lebanese government
had received assurances through diplomatic channels that Beirut, the Beirut Airport, and specifically the southern suburbs of Beirut would not be
struck.
That was their interpretation of those assurances. So, clearly, those assurances don't amount to much too much at this --
SOARES: Yes --
WEDEMAN: Point. Now, we know that Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah has said time and time again that striking Beirut is crossing a
red line. However, on the 2nd of January of this year, Israel did launch a strike that killed a senior Hamas leader, also roughly in that area as
well.
So, we'll have to simply wait and see how Hezbollah is going to respond. But I know that organization well, they are not going to go quietly into
the night. There will be some sort of response from Hezbollah. They have said they will meet escalation with escalation.
SOARES: And Ben, you saw the IDF's statement. They basically said it was a strike -- a targeted strike carried out on the commander responsible for
the murder of the children in Majdal Shams. Do we know anymore about this commander?
WEDEMAN: Well, the Israelis aren't mentioning anything, but certainly in the Israeli media and also here in Lebanon, there's lots of talk that this
is for Fuad Shukr, otherwise known by his Nom de Guerre Abu Mohsin or Hajj Mohsin. He is reportedly a commander who's involved in the operations room
of Hezbollah's military wing.
Now, there are also reports that he was not killed in that strike. I've reached out to my Hezbollah sources, I think they're a little too busy at
the moment to respond. So, that's the end of the name that's circulating. Now, some Israeli media are saying he's number two in Hezbollah in terms of
the leadership, I don't think that's quite accurate. He's obviously a senior military commander, but he's not part of the political wing of the
organization.
SOARES: Ben, stay with us, let me go to Cedric Leighton, who is also with us, and Cedric as we've heard in the last what? Forty five minutes or so,
we heard Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant basically tweeting that Hezbollah had crossed a red line referencing the Golan Heights attack that
killed those 12 children.
I mean, going back to the core question is, I mean, is this the end of the tit-for-tat or do you feel that Israel should expect some sort of response
here from Hezbollah?
LEIGHTON: I think the Israelis see the need to expect some kind of a response from Hezbollah at this point. It seems to be the typical feature
of these kinds of situations in the Middle East that they always escalate up to a point at least. And I think the Israeli goal is going to be to try
to get Hezbollah or at least as much of Hezbollah as possible out of southern Lebanon and move them to the north of the Litani River.
If that happens, then Israel will have achieved a major goal in an effort to secure that northern border area. But until that happens, I think there
will be a lot of movements on the military side for both organizations, both Israel as well Hezbollah. And I think we can see that there will be
some kind of Hezbollah response. What that will be, we don't know yet, but I suspect it will be some kind of a rocket attack here in the not-too
distant future.
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SOARES: Yes, and the risk though, Cedric, of miscalculation though is huge on both sides.
LEIGHTON: Yes, it certainly is, Isa, and today, one of the key elements here that makes this so dangerous -- and I would say that, you know, both
sides, you know, are basically armed to the teeth, the possibility of them miscalculating is really high. And there could very much -- very well be a
kind of response that then engenders a reaction again in that -- for a ladder is one that they'll probably be stepping on right now.
SOARES: Let me get to our Matthew Chance. Cedric, do stay with us -- and Matthew, sources telling CNN that Israel told U.S. ahead of the strike on
Hezbollah. I mean, how -- what role does U.S. play here or how can it take the temperatures down here? Stopping this from escalating to a wider
conflict as Cedric was talking about just now.
CHANCE: Well, I mean, look, I'm not -- I'm not party to the talks that --
SOARES: Yes --
CHANCE: Have been had between the Israelis and the United States, and indeed, the United States and Lebanon as well. But I mean, look, the U.S.
seems to be playing a restraining role, you know, trying to hold Israel back from taking measures or carrying out attacks that would lead to a
broader regional war.
That's not something the United States wants. And I know they've been putting pressure on, you know, through whatever channels they can on
Hezbollah and on the Lebanese government as well to play their part and in other sort of Arab states to play their part in that process as well.
But I mean, the fact is, I don't think any side in this conflict at the moment wants an all-out conflict, an all-out war with each other when it
comes to that northern sort of theatre. The Israelis, as I say, are exhausted because of their battling in Gaza. The Lebanese government,
Hezbollah, they don't want to get him embroiled in a potentially very destructive conflict that could have massive impacts, have a massive impact
and perhaps lead to, you know -- you know, enormous costs for the Lebanese people.
And you know, just in the region generally, it's a tinderbox, but as we've been saying that the possibility for miscalculation, the possibility that
this could achieve a momentum of its own is absolutely terrifying in this region right now.
SOARES: Matthew Chance and Cedric Leighton, we're going to take a short break, but we'll talk on the other side. We'll have much more on this
breaking news after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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SOARES: If you're just joining us, let me bring you up-to-date on the breaking news that we've been covering for you in the last hour or so.
Israel says it has launched a strike in Beirut, in Lebanon, targeting a Hezbollah commander that it blames for Saturday's deadly attack.
That attack happened in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, if you remember, which killed 12 children. Hezbollah denied responsibility.
Lebanese state media reporting the strike was conducted -- the one you're seeing right now, conducted by drone that fired three missiles and at least
one person was killed.
You're looking at some of the images that we've been showing you in the past hour. A source says Israel gave Washington a heads-up before carrying
out the strike. I want to get straight to our CNN military analyst, Cedric Leighton, who's been with us for the last 20 minutes or so.
As we're seeing these images out of Beirut, Ben was saying it was a roughly 8 O'clock when this strike was carried out, a targeted strike, Cedric, but
now we're getting more information about being a drone that fired three missiles. What does that tell you about the blast and the impact this could
have on an area that clearly is pretty packed.
LEIGHTON: Yes, it certainly is packed as Ben was mentioning, is -- the real impact that you see there is, you know, for the population is one of
terror as they experience something like this, because that's not what you expect to see on an average afternoon, no doubt, average evening in Beirut.
The impact from an operational standpoint, I was based I think on Israeli Intelligence, I -- they believe that they had indications that their
target, this commander that they're talking about, that, that person was in that area and perhaps in a specific apartment or a specific office in the
development in the suburb of Beirut.
If -- you know, there's some reports that may indicate that the Israeli student not achieve their goal if that does turn out to be the case, then
you know, all that's basically off when it comes to this. And it does show that there are certain limits to this kind of warfare. And you know, as far
as drone operations are concerned, they live and die, they succeed or fail based on the precision of the Intelligence that they have access to.
And if that Intelligence was faulty in any way where there was something that came in-between the ability of the drone to track the target and then
take that commander out, I think the possibility of escalation is pretty high in this case.
SOARES: Yes, on that point, Cedric, I'm just seeing that Israeli officials telling our teams that the target was Fuad Shukr, nom de guerre Hajj
Mohsin, we are seeing reports, and Ben, I don't know if you heard earlier, our Ben Wedeman in Beirut saying the reports that he survived -- this
Hezbollah commander survived. Does then -- then how does this shift the equation here? How does Hezbollah proceed?
LEIGHTON: So, I think what will happen next, Isa, is that they will definitely move people like Fuad Shukr to more secured locations. I -- and
they will also respond in one way or the other. There are theories that, you know, they will unleash rocket attacks and drone attacks against
northern Israel.
I think that's pretty likely that they might do that kind of an operation because that's basically what they're able to do. They might also conduct
several other types of terrorists or terrorists-like attacks. And that could, of course, escalate things and really result in, you know, escalated
situation on Israel's northern border.
And as Matthew was talking about, Israel should be wanting to avoid a front war, but they also have to respond to attacks like this. So, on, you know,
civilians in -- within their territory, that's the kind of situation, kind of the wave point here where one could go one way where there's less
conflict and less of an escalation, but the other -- I'm afraid more likely path is that there will at least be the degree of escalation that could
result in further conflict and further attacks like we're seeing tonight.
SOARES: Yes, stay with us, Cedric, so, I want to continue this conversation. Our Ben Wedeman is with us. And Ben, I know you're looking at
your phone, keeping us up-to-date on everything that's happening. I'm just seeing Iranian state media reporting that this Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr
who has -- is Nom de Guerre Hajj Mohsin survived the IDF attempt in Beirut.
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I mean, what more do we know about this individual?
WEDEMAN: Well, we understand -- now, I mean, this man, it's important to keep in mind that Hezbollah does not sort of publicize its members or
fighters commanders until they're actually dead. So, not an awful lot is known about this man. His name is Fuad Shukr; he's Nom de Guerre Hajj
Mohsin.
He -- we understand, however, was involved in the operations room, the central operations room for military operations of Hezbollah. So, if that
was the case, he's obviously very much involved in the day-to-day decisions about where to strike, what to strike with.
Now, today, Hezbollah is reporting that they have conducted 11 strikes on targets in Israel or Israeli-occupied territory, which is a number somewhat
larger than the daily average. Now, obviously, this is the kind of commander that Israel would like to strike. Until now, the Israelis have
killed perhaps as many as 400 Hezbollah members since October.
Some of them fairly senior field commanders, not necessarily sort of the men who oversee the broad width of the operations that Hezbollah conducts.
However, this man, Fuad Shukr, it does appear to be the most senior commander yet that has been targeted by the Israelis.
Now, we haven't heard officially from Hezbollah whether he survived the attack, but certainly, we're hearing from multiple other sources that we
cannot confirm, including Iran and others that he is survived the attack. I saw one local media report saying that he left the building that was struck
in the Haret Hreik neighborhood in southern Beirut just moments before the building was hit, Isa.
SOARES: And Ben, what do we know? As you were talking, we're looking at these images out of Beirut. What do we know about this area in Beirut, in
southern Beirut? What more do we know?
WEDEMAN: Well, this is an area that -- this is a neighborhood that is predominantly Shia, that it is very densely-populated. That of course, keep
in mind the strike took place just before 8 O'clock in the evening, so there were probably lots of people in the street, but as far as Israel is
concerned, its interest is that they know that this is where many of the Hezbollah leaders operate in and live in.
In fact, in September 1997, I interviewed Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary- General of Hezbollah in that very neighborhood, of course, reaching him involved getting into a car with the blinds tightly shut, so, I don't know
exactly where we interviewed him, but I suspect it was probably in that area.
So, this is an area of intense interest to the Israelis. They keep a very close eye on it, to the extent they can -- now, we heard that in the hours
before this strike, there was Israeli war planes in the air that broke the sound barrier above the southern suburbs of Beirut.
So, this is an area the Israelis have always been very interested in, and it's also an area because of the presence of so many important officials
from Hezbollah where security is very tight. For instance, in Beirut, when you go out with a camera, you can shoot almost anywhere, nobody ask you any
questions.
But if you go into that part of town, you have to inform Hezbollah that you're going, to avoid any trouble. So, it's known as sort of a high
security zone. There are Lebanese army checkpoints on the outskirts. Now, they were set up in the aftermath of several car bombs going back more than
ten years in the area. But as I said, it's an area where security is taken very seriously.
SOARES: And stay with us, Ben, let me go to our correspondent here, Matthew Chance, and Matthew, we're hearing from Israeli officials, senior
Israeli officials saying that Israel wants to send, quote, "a very strong message, with tonight's strike, the hopes to avoid further escalation,
quote, 'we don't want this to escalate into a wider war'".
And ultimately whether this escalates or not very much depends on how Hezbollah reacts now. And that is the concern this hour. How will Hezbollah
respond? What kind of response? I mean, this is very much unknown territory at this stage.
CHANCE: Yes, it is. And as we've all been reporting, that the possibility of a miscalculation is very --
SOARES: Yes --
CHANCE: Real. These kinds of attacks have a way of taking on a momentum of their own. And so, we could see a very significant Hezbollah response that
could lead this into a -- into a spiral, of course, and the hope is that that won't happen.
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And I think that's a hope shared by all sides in this conflict. Certainly, the Israelis, as I've been reporting, and as I've been mentioning are
exhausted at the moment as a nation as a result of their conflict in Gaza.
There's a strong political pressure inside Israel to attack Hezbollah and to push them back from the northern border of the country because of the
incessant rocket attacks in the north, specifically after the attack in Majdal Shams, which -- in which the 12 people, the 12 children and
teenagers were killed at the weekend.
But there's -- I got a phone call just before I came on air from a contact of mine in Israel with the Israeli defense forces saying -- you know,
pointing out at the last sentence in an Israeli Defense Forces' statement about this issue. And it says this, at the moment, you know, after this
strike, there were no changes in the home front command defensive guidelines.
And what that contact was trying to tell me is that, look, it's the calculation at the moment of the Israeli intelligence that, you know, there
may not be an immediate retaliation from Hezbollah, because they are not warning those people who are left in Northern Israel. And remember, most
people in the area very close to Southern Lebanon have already evacuated their homes, but they're not warning the people in the northern part of
Israel to take shelter in the air raid shelters as they had done sort of previously in situations like this.
And so, you know, the assessment or the suggestion being sent over to me at least is that, you know, the Israelis expect this may be the end of it.
But, you know, obviously, we'll wait and see.
ISA SOARES, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: Indeed. We are keeping a very close eye on this breaking news story. Matthew Chance, Cedric Leighton, thank you
to you both.
We're going to take a short break. We're be back in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:35:00]
SOARES: If you're just joining us, let me bring you up to date on the breaking news that we've been following for you in the last -- really, top
of the hour, in the last 25 minutes or so. Israel is claiming responsibility for a strike on Hezbollah stronghold in Southern Beirut. The
IDF says it carried out what it called the target to strike in response to the weekend attack, if you remember, that killed 12 children in the Golan
Heights. Hezbollah had denied responsibility for that attack.
Now, Lebanese state media report that today's strike was carried out by a drone that fired three missiles and that at least one person was killed.
That's what we're hearing. We've been here in the last 10 minutes or so. Now, CNN cannot independently confirm those details. A source telling CNN
Israel notified the United States of its plans ahead of that attack.
Meanwhile, we have received new video of the strike that really set this off. And I just do want to warn you that the video is distressing. The
video shows the moment that rocket struck the football pitch this weekend. The first few seconds show -- if we're going to play it, children playing,
then an air raid siren starts to sound.
Apologies. That is not the right video. As soon as we have the right video, we should bring to you. Guys, let me know when you have that video so we
can play it out. It is important to add the context, to be -- it explains really some of the tit for tat that we are seeing between both sides.
Here is the video playing. As we were saying, this -- it is distressing moment that the rocket struck the football pitch that weekend, where
children were playing. And then you hear -- as you could hear then, a riot -- a raid siren starts to sound, children playing football. We saw a child
with look like -- what looked like an Argentina Messi shirt. So, incredibly hard to watch, but it does add the context.
I want to bring in our team here. I want to welcome in Maha Yahya, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center from Beirut, our chief national
security correspondent, Alex Marquardt, who knows this region very well indeed, and our military analyst, Cedric Leighton, who has been with us for
the last 37 minutes or so.
Maha, to you first. You're in Beirut. Just give me a sense of what you're hearing, of what you're understanding from your contacts, your sources on
the ground.
MAHA YAHYA, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST CENTER: Good evening and thank you for having me. It's quite distressing. There's a lot of anxiety. I
mean, the city's been a state of heightened anxiety for the past -- since the -- I mean, the unfortunate and horrific attack in Majdal Shams. And
tonight, everybody's just back at home waiting to see what's going to happen next.
I think everyone was hoping -- we were very much hoping that the -- Israel would not attack the southern suburbs of Beirut, that they would stay away
from highly dense -- densely populated civilian areas. Because then that is going to probably solicit a much stronger response from Hezbollah than
would have been the case had the attack happened in a less populated area against the weapons depot, et cetera. So, there's a lot of anxiety. There's
a lot of concern. There's a lot of worry.
Now, the fact that Hezbollah is saying that the strike did not succeed and taking out Fuad Shukr, who support -- apparently was the target, may lessen
the impact a little bit, but not a lot because we're hearing of at least 10 injured and two civilian -- I mean, 10 civilian injured and two killed so
far. And most likely, the toll will go up given how densely populated the area is.
SOARES: Yes, and we had seen Ben Wedeman, who was on the ground, as you all know, was talking about this. There had been reports that this
Hezbollah official hadn't been -- the senior commander hadn't been killed. Now, we're hearing from our Ben Wedeman on the ground saying exactly that,
the senior Lebanese government contacts basically saying that he has, Fuad Shukr, has escaped. So, I wonder whether that changes the calculus here.
[14:40:00]
Let me go then to what -- to Alex Marquardt. Because, Alex, you know this region very well. We know we heard from our Ben Wedeman that this happened
just before 8:00 p.m. It would have been busy, this predominant Shia, you know, densely populated. What do you make of this moment? How Hezbollah --
if Hezbollah will retaliate? You know this, you've reported on it -- in this area, in this region, how do you see it playing out?
ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, there's certainly an expectation that Hezbollah would respond, but in speaking with
officials over the past few days, as this response was expected, there was a hope that Hezbollah would read the Israeli response in a way that they
would respond rationally.
So, the big question now is whether this official has been killed. And I just heard those reports that he has not. I should note that Fuad Shukr, if
he was indeed the target, he's not just wanted by Israel, he's officially wanted by the United States as well. He's on the U.S. State Department's
Rewards for Justice website with a $5 million bounty on his head.
If he was not hit and killed by Israel tonight, does that -- that begs -- then begs the question, will Israel go farther? I think what Israel is
trying to telegraph here in a -- in what is a very precise strike, albeit in Dahieh, in the Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, is that this is possibly
the extent of their goals. If they were to go broader than this, if they were to target civilian infrastructure, if they were to go after the center
of Beirut or the airport, then you could certainly be in a situation where we'd be very worried about an expanding conflict.
But what we've been hearing from U.S. officials in the lead up to this and since this strike happened is that they don't seem terribly worried that
this is going to spiral out of control. Just yesterday, the White House's John Kirby saying. that fears of that expansion are exaggerated. In the
moments following the strike, we, again, heard from the White House, from Karine Jean-Pierre in the White House press briefing room, saying it is not
inevitable that this turns into a larger conflict.
So, they do appear to be relatively confident that this will stay contained, at least for now. But of course, Isa, as you know, so many
uncertainties.
SOARES: And you mentioned the White House and Karine Jean-Pierre. In fact, we have that sound. I want to play it out and we can talk after this. Have
a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- has he reaching out again to Israel in the wake of this strike to --
KARINE JEAN-PIERRE, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: So, look, I don't have --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: I think if -- for some reason it froze. We are going to try and fix that problem. But you heard it and you heard it directly as well from
Alex who was listening in. And, Alex, we heard from sources telling CNN that the White House was given the heads up, I believe, right, from Israel.
Why is that important? Just add some context here. Why does that matter?
MARQUARDT: That is right. I mean, that is one of the going to be -- that is always one of the first questions that we hear in Washington ask to U.S.
officials, to what extent they're aware of Israel's plans, and they're not always aware of Israel's plans. Of course, these are two very close allies,
but the U.S. and Washington are not always kept abreast of what Israel is planning.
In this case, according to our colleague, Jennifer Hansler, there was a message sent via security channels from Israel to the United States that
this was going to happen. It's unclear when that message was sent. But this is a good sign that Israel is keeping the U.S. abreast of what it intends
to do. And likely is an indication, certainly when you hear what Karine Jean-Pierre then said, that this might not escalate farther.
This has been the nightmare scenario, Isa, that one of these Hezbollah rockets would hit Israeli children and cause this situation to spiral out
of control. What I've been told by officials in the past few days is that they believe this was an errant Hezbollah rocket, that this was a mistake,
that rocket that hit and killed those 12 children in Majdal Shams.
And of course, it's worth noting that this is what is considered internationally as Israeli occupied territory and the Druze community
there, in many ways, rejects Israel and rejects Israeli citizenship. But Israel certainly saw this as an attack on Israeli territory. And then, we
heard Prime Minister Netanyahu threaten what he called severe retaliation. What we're seeing now, is that the extent of it or is there more to come?
We have to wait and see.
SOARES: Yes, that is a big question. Look, I've promised our viewers, Alex, that we'll bring that sound from the White House. We're going to have
a go at it again. I think we fixed the technical issue. Let's have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEAN-PIERRE: So, we do not believe that an all-out war is inevitable. That is not something that we believe. And we believe that it can still be
avoided. You know, this is a president, as you've watched, in the last three and a half years, he believes in diplomacy, diplomatic solutions,
especially as we're talking in this moment along the blue line. That is true as well.
[14:45:00]
And so -- and that will end these attacks. If we have some diplomatic kind of solution from Hezbollah once and for all and allow Israel and Lebanese
citizens on both sides of the border to return to their homes and live in safety. And that's what we want to see. So, we -- that's what we believe,
that there's a diplomatic solution here, and that's what we're trying to get to.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: And, Alex, just to wrap up what we just heard there from Karine Jean-Pierre, I mean, we do not believe an all-out war is inevitable. What
is being done behind the scene in the United States to try and lower the temperatures here, to stop this from escalating?
MARQUARDT: There is a fierce diplomatic effort going on, Isa. We often talk about the efforts to get to a ceasefire in Gaza. There's a parallel
simultaneous effort led by an official named Amos Hochstein, who has been shuttling back and forth between Israel and Lebanon for the past few
months, trying to get to a place where there is quiet.
Now, so much of it, it is believed, hinges upon the war ending in Gaza. But Israel certainly wants to separate those two, essentially, and see an end
to the fighting up there in a way that those tens of thousands of Israelis can return home. We should note tens of thousands of Lebanese citizens have
also had to move away from the border.
The outlines of a deal that has not yet been accomplished are that Hezbollah would move back from the southern border of Lebanon about six
miles or 10 kilometers. But at the same time, when you see the intensity of the cross-border skirmishes, there is concern that Israel is simply going
to say, well, diplomacy doesn't work. We need to go in militarily, whether that's on the ground or from the skies, and that could precipitate a war
that would be very, very different from the one we're seeing in Gaza because of the staggering arsenal and capacity that Hezbollah has. Isa.
SOARES: And there have been some voices, of course, within the Israeli cabinet, this were more far right voices who perhaps have been calling for
that pressure on Hezbollah and this moment.
Let's go -- stay with us, Alex. I want to go to Maha, who is in Beirut. I believe she's still with us. And, Maha, we have heard from Israeli sources
basically telling CNN, I'm going to quote them here, "We don't want this to escalate into a wider war. And ultimately, whether this escalates or not
very much depends on how Hezbollah reacts now."
Just give us a sense, Maha, of the mood of the -- that the Lebanese people that -- at this moment. Because we have been seeing tit for tat now for
several months. And this is -- one of the biggest fears, of course, that this escalates into a wider war. What are you hearing in the streets? What
are people telling you?
YAHYA: I think people are -- I mean, the Lebanese are very worried about another war. Don't forget 2006, there was a 33-day war between Lebanon and
Israel. Israel has invaded Lebanon multiple times, 1982, 1978, '82, '96. So, it's been it's been recurrent. So, there is a lot of concern and fear
that this may happen.
There's also a lot of cynicism about Israel using this -- the horrific attack in Majdal Shams for its own purposes to try and get rid of a
commander or target an area that it has not targeted in the past, primarily because, as Alex mentioned, this is occupied territory. Internationally, is
it's an occupied Syrian territory. Many of these children in -- or the residents of Majdal Shams that don't even have Israeli citizenship. So,
there is a lot of cynicism around that.
There are more than 20,000 children who have been affected at least in one way or the other in Gaza over the past eight, nine months.
On the part of Hezbollah, their calculus is they really do not want to escalate. They understand that an escalation and the conflict, you know, to
quote the Israeli defense establishment, can easily send Lebanon back to the stone age and it will affect all Lebanese, not just Hezbollah areas.
I think on the part of Israel, and we've seen that over the past -- again, almost now 10 months. We've seen that on the part of -- in the way they've
responded. Israel has been carrying out targeted assassinations. Almost 400 members of Hezbollah have been killed so far. And the retaliation has
remained within certain limits.
SOARES: Yes.
YAHYA: I think --
SOARES: Go ahead. Finish your sentence. Go ahead, Maha.
YAHYA: OK. On the side of the -- on the Israeli side, I think the calculus is somewhat different. There are tensions within the cabinet between -- you
know, you have a political -- a prime minister who needs the continuation of war in order to maintain his political credibility, but you've also got
tensions within the cabinet between, for example, Gallant, who wants to have -- you know, who wants to have war with Lebanon, thinks this is an
opportune moment to get rid of Hezbollah. But quite honestly, they're not learning from history.
[14:50:00]
You do not -- history has shown us -- and very recent history, and not late history, is you cannot get rid of organizations like this through military
means.
SOARES: Maha, really appreciate you adding the context and the analysis, of course, from the region on the ground. Appreciate it. As you were
talking, we had some news coming in. The high-level Hezbollah commander we've been speaking about the last 50 minutes or so, we have now learned
that he has survived that strike. His name is a high-level Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Has survived the strike that targeted him in the
southern suburbs that we're showing in -- of Beirut.
We will talk about this after the break because I wonder whether that changes the calculus at all. We're going to take a short break. We'll speak
to Cedric after this short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: I want to return to our breaking news out of Lebanon. Israel's claiming responsibility for an attack in Southern Beirut. Israel says it
targeted -- its targeted strike was aiming for Hezbollah commander responsible for a rocket attack, if you remember, in the Golan Heights that
killed a dozen children Hezbollah has denied responsibility for that.
Images coming out of Lebanon meantime show crowds gathering around debris at the attack site. Lebanese state media report the strike was conducted by
a drone that fired three missiles and that at least one person was killed.
I want to go to our Ben Wedeman who is in Beirut for us. And, Ben, you and I were talking the top of the hour about this commander, whether was he
alive, was he hit or not? And now, we're learning that, in fact, he has survived. What more can you tell us?
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I spoke to a senior Lebanese government official who told me that Fuad Shukr has
survived this attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Now, this is a man who is on the sort of list of terrorists, according to the U.S. government, and there was a $5 million reward out for him. Now, he
is somebody who was a commander, a senior commander in Hezbollah.
[14:55:00]
Keep in mind that Hezbollah does not publicize its hierarchy at all, but he was known to be somebody who coordinated operations in the field from an
operation center in Beirut itself, and that, clearly, he's the kind of target that the Israelis would be looking out for.
We know that until now, around 400 Hezbollah fighters, commanders have been killed, but none of them senior to that level. Isa.
SOARES: Yes, and we had heard previously, Ben, that Hezbollah would attack like for like, almost. What are you hearing from your contacts from the
Hezbollah side how they -- because the question right now at this hour is, is Hezbollah going to retaliate? What is your sense at this juncture?
WEDEMAN: Well, Hezbollah has been fairly silent on -- in the aftermath of this attack. But what we know from what they've said in the last few days
is that they said that they would meet escalation for escalation that striking Beirut for them is a red line.
Now, on the 2nd of January of this year, there was an Israeli strike on that part of Beirut that killed a senior Hamas commander. It was expected
that that perhaps would lead to a dramatic escalation of the situation. However, that did not happen. But in this case, this was a strike on the
very heart, the stronghold of Hezbollah in Beirut. And that indeed could lead to some sort of Hezbollah response, probably not a small one. Isa.
SOARES: Yes, and the fear is, of course, of a wider war. This is a huge concern. Ben Wedeman for us on the ground in Beirut who will continue up to
-- keeping us up to date with the very latest. Appreciate it, Ben. Thank you very much.
And do stay right here. CNN's continuing breaking coverage will continue with my colleague, Jim Sciutto, from Washington, D.C. You are watching CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:00:00]
END
