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Isa Soares Tonight

Trump to Address Joint Session of Congress; U.S. Weapons and Ukraine's Front Lines; Trump Pauses Military Aid to Ukraine; Zelenskyy Ready to Talk Peace; "Crucial" Period for Gaza Ceasefire Talks; Update on Pope Francis' Health. Aired 2:00-3p ET

Aired March 04, 2025 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:00:00]

ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: Hello, and a very warm welcome, everyone, I'm Isa Soares. Tonight, we are following two major stories for

you, having a real life implications from right around the world, from Mexico to Canada, all the way to China, where U.S. President Donald Trump

has unleashed new tariffs, sending investors pretty much ducking for cover in the opening rounds of a trade war.

Then, right here in Europe, there's a real war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. The decision by the U.S. President to pause military aid is

sending shockwaves across the decades-old Trans-Atlantic alliance. And that is where we begin tonight. In the last few hours, Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelenskyy offering President Trump an olive branch.

In a new social media post, Mr. Zelenskyy describes Oval Office meeting as regrettable and says, quote, "none of us want an endless war. Ukraine is

ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer", as you can see there. Ukrainian officials say the U.S. was

supplying about 40 percent of Ukraine's weapons, while European countries covered about, as you can see there, a third.

But now, Trump's sharp realignment of U.S. foreign policy has forced the European Union to urgently address its approach to defense. The EU has

unveiled a new plan to allow member-states to borrow about $158 billion to try and boost their defense spending, and, quote, massively step up their

military support for Kyiv.

Our chief international security correspondent Nick Paton Walsh is trapping -- is tracking Trump's aid suspension as well, of course, critically, its

consequences.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR (on camera): Well, as Ukraine is still reeling from the seismic shock of President

Trump, saying he is pausing U.S. aid to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has done his best, it seems to try and edge towards satisfying

the pretty strident demands from Trump's inner circle.

For him, making amends after the scenes in the Oval Office on Friday. In a social media posting, Zelenskyy has said that it is regrettable how the

incident went down in the Oval Office. It's regrettable that it happened this way. He also says that it's time to make things right, that

potentially answers one of Trump's inner circles demands that potentially we see a public apology that may meet the wording.

Perhaps, he also answers another explicit demand of President Trump that he commit to peace. He doesn't exactly say what peace he would commit to, and

it wasn't really clear what peace Trump would like him to commit to. But he does say that Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table, and

Ukraine above everyone, wants peace.

In fact, he goes a little further and indeed begins to spell out parts of a framework for what the opening elements of a peace deal might indeed look

like. And he repeats a suggestion we've heard from the Ukrainian presidency in the past few days, that perhaps there could be a more wide-ranging

exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia.

And then he also echoes a suggestion from France's President Emmanuel Macron, that we heard in the "Figaro" newspaper late on Sunday, that there

could potentially be a partial ceasefire involving the sea, long-range strikes in the air and also attacks that both sides are doing on each

other's energy infrastructure, essentially confidence-building measures that could then maybe, if successful, lead to a wider-ranging deal.

It is unclear if this post on X.com will be enough to make those around Trump and the President himself feel that Zelenskyy is A, committed to

peace, and also is apologizing for an Oval Office meeting, that, frankly, most Ukrainians were appalled to watch as they considered it their wartime

leader being bullied by two of the most powerful men in the land.

But it is a bid, I think, certainly, after the pausing of U.S. aid, which is having already probably quite a bad impact on Ukrainian morale, to try

and make things right. This puts the ball potentially back in Trump's court, whether he considers this indeed to have been enough, we are hearing

from Ukrainian officials that the pause in aid will potentially, in weeks, impacts the Patriot Air Defense Missiles they so urgently need to tackle

Russian ballistic missile threats.

And that by May, potentially, there could be a critical stoppage or shortage of artillery ammunition that Ukraine so vitally needs.

[14:05:00]

Be in no doubt, there is a crisis here, and that may be one that has fomented this response from Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Is it enough to get him

back in talking terms, even forget the good graces with the Trump administration? We'll see potentially in the hours ahead. But it's a

remarkable whiplash see-saw here of emotions for Ukrainians upon whose the outcome of this, really their lives do indeed depend. Nick Paton Walsh,

CNN, Kyiv, Ukraine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SOARES: Well, my next guest is a member of the Ukrainian parliament, Oleksiy Goncharenko joins us now with his reaction on U.S. aid suspension.

Aleksey, great to have you back on the show. So, we have seen, as you heard there from our Nick Paton Walsh in Kyiv, basically Zelenskyy offering an

olive branch to President Trump, clearly an attempt to try and get this relationship back on track.

Let me ask -- re-read the question that Nick was asking in that report just there. Does that go far enough or does it fall short of the groveling

apology that was demanded by the White House?

OLEKSIY GONCHARENKO, MEMBER OF UKRAINE PARLIAMENT: Well, we will see the answer very soon. Hello, and yes, I think during today's address of

President Trump to Congress, we will understand is it enough or not. But this is absolutely right step from President Zelenskyy.

We need to be not in anger(ph), but in peace with the United States, our main military ally, we can't -- we can't go on without American support.

That's so easy like this. So, that's why we need to do everything we can in order to take the United States back on board.

SOARES: And Oleksiy, clearly, the pressure, as you stated there, the pressure is on following on this pause in military aid. One, did you see it

coming? And just for our viewers right around the world, what kind of impact do you think this will have on Ukraine's fight to push -- to really

push back Putin, especially if it drags on, if this pause drags on?

GONCHARENKO: It's very easy. Thousands of people will die if President Trump will not prolong support to Ukraine, and will not postpone or better

cancel this decision. Thousands of people will die. It's so easy. And that is something which is completely unacceptable for us. And one man will be

super happy in the world, the name of this man is Vladimir Putin.

So, we can't embolden him because that's the worst thing to do. If he will feel himself emboldened, he will not just continue the war against Ukraine,

but he will prepare next aggressions.

SOARES: And Oleksiy, you know, today in his post on X, President Zelenskyy reiterated what he called Ukraine's commitment to peace, obviously, direct

message to President Trump or where he said they didn't want peace, and to Vice President J.D. Vance. Can there be a ceasefire with this mineral

deals? But no doubt -- no backstop. Do you think this is achievable in terms of creating a long-lasting peace here?

GONCHARENKO: We need to get to peace as soon as possible. That can be the first step. A ceasefire --

SOARES: Yes --

GONCHARENKO: That can be the first step. But we will need security guarantees where United States will serve as at least, as a backstop, but

better, at least in some way been involved. So, without -- because Russia is afraid of just two countries in the world, it's China and United States.

It's clear that we can't count on China, so we count on United States.

SOARES: And, you know, you and I have spoken about this since Friday, and what we saw take place in that Oval Office. But we have heard repeatedly,

Oleksiy, from this administration, from the Trump administration that, you know, ask for concessions of President Zelenskyy, you know, that Putin says

that they don't want NATO.

They might not be able to get the land that was taken from Ukraine back. But we have heard -- the reality is we've heard very little what is being

asked of Russia. Does it look like Ukraine is being held to a higher standard than Russia?

GONCHARENKO: No, we'll never accept for surrender. And when we're speaking about that Ukraine will lose its sovereignty, we will not accept it.

Sovereignty means the right of Ukraine to make its own choices, to what alliances to join, what time to have, I think this is our red line, and it

should be very clearly said to President Trump, we believe in you, we hope that you will give us a great deal. But that's what something for us is

absolutely crucial. And we need to be clear about this.

SOARES: And as we wait to hear from President Trump later on, whether, of course, President Trump and President Zelenskyy can heal that relationship,

as we have this pause on U.S. military aid, what are you looking -- what is Ukraine looking from Europe? Can Europe fill that gap and how soon can it

fill that gap? I know European leaders are meeting on Thursday, but give me a sense of what Ukraine would like to see from European leaders at this

juncture.

GONCHARENKO: We want to see some concrete actions. For example, seizing of Russian assets, because we are very thankful to all statements and posts,

it's great, but the problem is you can't intercept Russian missile with a statement.

[14:10:00]

You can't destroy Russian tank with a post on social media. You can't buy American weapons with a lot of moral support. It doesn't work like this.

SOARES: And I have you here, and we heard from our Nick Paton Walsh there in Ukraine. But I really -- we focused so much on what was said between

both leaders on this minerals deal. But I really want to get a sense from you, Oleksiy, of the mood on the ground. Because like you heard from Nick,

there's been so much diplomatic political whiplash.

Give us a sense how Ukrainians are processing these daily lines that we're getting from the U.S. administration, from the Trump administration. How

are they making sense of this? Can they even trust President Trump at this -- at this point?

GONCHARENKO: I should be frank with you, Ukrainian people are completely shocked. I mean, every morning with the time difference, they are waking up

and they see new statements, and that is a shock because we feel ourselves like we -- you know, it was years that we were counting on our friends, and

we want to count on our friends further, but we just can't understand where we are moving to.

So, we want to see that President Trump will be successful peacemaker. We wish him the best. We want to believe in him, and I hope that we will not

make a mistake here.

SOARES: We want to believe in him, important words there. Oleksiy, as always, appreciate it, thank you very much.

GONCHARENKO: Thank you.

SOARES: Let's go to our second story that we are following here today. And that's China and Canada retaliating against the U.S. after President Trump

imposed his blanket tariffs plan. And that includes, as you can see there, tariffs, 25 percent on Canada, on Mexico and on China. It's increased from

10 percent, doubling obviously the tariffs from imports from 10 percent to 20 percent.

Those duties come on top of the existing tariffs on hundreds of billions in Chinese goods. This is important to point out. And the measures mark the

beginning of what is a trade war. Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he's back -- he's not going back to back down from this fight, very

fiery indeed. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, PRIME MINISTER, CANADA: Let me be crystal clear. There is absolutely no justification or need whatsoever for these tariffs today.

Now, the legal pretext your government is using to bring in these tariffs is that Canada is apparently unwilling to help in the fight against illegal

fentanyl. Well, that is totally false.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SOARES: Well, we have our team, as you can see, right across the latest developments, our Paula Newton, as you can see there is in Ottawa in

Canada, will go to her in just a moment. Valeria Leon joins me from -- live from Mexico City. But first, I want to go to Vanessa Yurkovich in New York.

And Vanessa, let me start with you.

You know, this administration is very much about America first, economic stability, low prices, give us a sense of the impact that this will have on

U.S. consumers and how soon, critically, they will feel it?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, well, according to the CEO of Target, American consumers are going to feel it in a matter of days. And

that is because Target, for example, gets fruits and vegetables from Mexico and from Canada. And now with this 25 percent tariff on both countries,

they're going to be bringing these perishable items in very quickly.

And they're going to see those tariffs, and American consumers can expect to see higher prices at Target in a matter of days. Also, we heard the same

thing from Best Buy, Walmart, which is a big bellwether for the U.S. economy here in the United States, also said that they are going to -- they

are assuming that they're going to see slower consumer spending, slower growth over the next year.

I also want to just draw your attention to what markets have been doing here in the United States. For the past 24 hours, we've really seen markets

in the red, the Dow plummeting as much as 900 points at one point yesterday and 800 points at one point today. You can see the Nasdaq recovering

slightly there.

But really, this is investors digesting the fact that they believe consumers are going to have to pay higher prices and they're going to pull

back on spending, really creating a shaky business outlook. And for American consumers, we know that in the last month, consumer confidence has

fallen. Inflation here in the U.S. has picked up in the month of January.

And tariffs just infuse a whole new situation into the mix about what prices are going to look like. For the average consumer, cars could cost a

lot more here --

SOARES: Yes --

YURKEVICH: In the U.S., one estimate suggests that the cost to build a car will be between $3,500 and $12,000 more, and for the average American

family here, one estimate suggests that because of these tariffs, we can expect to pay $1,200 more every single year.

[14:15:00]

That is just something that American families don't want to have to be thinking about right now, especially when President Trump said that on day

one, he was going to lower prices. Now, with this trade war, we're getting the signal that prices are going to rise. So, a lot of uncertainty on Wall

Street today, a lot of uncertainty on main street. We are waiting to hear from the President tonight to see how he's going to justify these tariffs

for the American consumer.

He said there's going to be a little bit of pain up front, but at the end of the day, it will work out and it will be beneficial. Let's see --

SOARES: Yes --

YURKEVICH: What he has to say about that.

SOARES: A bitter pill to swallow, no doubt for U.S. consumers. But we will see, of course, what President Trump says and how he spins it. Let me go to

Paula Newton in Ottawa. And Paula, it does seem from what we just laid out that we are perhaps in for a sustained trade war here, something that no

country wanted to see.

But we did hear, we played a little clip there of a very defiant Trudeau calling President Trump or Donald, as he called him, his decision dumb.

Already, President Trump threatening further retaliatory action. Just give us a sense of what we heard from Trudeau, because he did not hold back

there.

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: He did not hold back. In fact, that was probably the most strident and blunt that I have seen him his entire

political career as Prime Minister. And that is really saying something, I will add, Isa, certainly that he is on his way out. He will likely only be

Prime Minister of Canada for the next few days given the political chaos happening here.

This entire country, though, Isa, I have to tell you, is united on this issue of tariffs. They do see it as Donald Trump basically picking on

Canada, and why? It is this issue of trying to make Canada the 51st state that has everyone so riled. And that is just the geopolitics of the issue.

And I want you to listen now to how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau actually opened his address to the American people and to Donald Trump directly.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUDEAU: The United States launched a trade war against Canada, their closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they're

talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NEWTON: Make that make sense. It doesn't make sense, especially not to Canadians here, Isa. I have seen again the anti-Americanism here in Canada

swelling and Canadians will act on it. They continue to look out for all products that are American and refuse to buy them. The escalation, the

retaliation literally continues by the hour.

I want to be clear here, though, the Prime Minister himself saying, look, I don't want to sugar-coat this. This will be --

SOARES: Yes --

NEWTON: Tough on Canadians. In fact, they will hurt likely much more than Americans, even though, you know, Vanessa did point out, this will be

hurting Americans as well.

SOARES: And indeed, and look, yesterday when we heard that the tariffs will be coming in, it was during our hour, we saw the Dow, as Vanessa was

saying, we saw the Dow take a plummet. And we also heard, I remember this clearly, President Trump was asked whether anything could be done to

consider -- another position to consider nothing that Canada or Mexico do.

And he said there wasn't, other than he said, Paula, maybe to build a factory here, which then are, you know -- one reporter asked, well, maybe

this is not -- is this really about fentanyl? Make that make sense, Paula, let me take that to you.

NEWTON: Yes, and Justin Trudeau made it clear again, Isa, I want to say that, look, many Canadians who have told me that they agree with Donald

Trump on firming up the border. And taking fentanyl to one side, remember, the vast majority of all the illegal guns in Canada come from the United

States.

There are real reasons to secure the border, and that's in Canadians interest. But the issue of fentanyl itself is, as Justin Trudeau said, a

pretext, it's false. I would go as far as to call it a lie. Why? All the fentanyl seized between the United States and Canada, I could carry in my

own two hands across the border. Just one take --

SOARES: We shall see -- just one take, yes --

NEWTON: So, it is certainly an issue, Isa. But again, it is that issue of this pretext which then leads to what is this about? And it is the issue of

whether or not the United States, Donald Trump is trying to break Canada economically, which is why he continues to call it the 51st state.

SOARES: Paula, do stay with us. I -- you know, I want to go to Valeria Leon in Mexico City. Valeria, give us a sense of how President Sheinbaum,

how she's responding and what kind of retaliatory action we're going to see vis-a-vis obviously, these U.S. -- these U.S. tariffs.

VALERIA LEON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will always look for a negotiation, but stressed that this

unilateral decision affects both countries. Sheinbaum has announced that Mexico will respond to the tariffs, with tariff and non-tariff measures

that she will announce in a public event on Sunday.

[14:20:00]

And this means that so far, we still don't know exactly what measures the Sheinbaum government is going to take. But a phone call between President

Donald Trump has been scheduled for this Thursday. So, we're going to have more details on that this same week. And as this new trade barriers come

into effect, an air of intense uncertainty has taken hold of both small and large business owners.

SOARES: Yes --

LEON: Meanwhile, local and state governments within Mexico have started to brace themselves for rapidly rising unemployment. In today's morning press

conference, President Sheinbaum said the U.S. was acting unilaterally, and contrary to the terms of the North American trade agreement that President

Trump himself had pushed for during his first term in office.

She also called for the U.S. to respect Mexico, while pointing out that U.S. government has to deal with its own fentanyl crisis rather than

placing all the blame on Mexico and organized crime, as the Trump administration seems to be doing in her opinion. And over the past few

weeks, Mexico adopted a strategy of complying with Trump's demands on several --

SOARES: Yes --

LEON: Fronts at once. For example, taking action against fentanyl- producing cartels, curbing migration, and also limiting China's economic sway over Mexican industrial production. Isa.

SOARES: Yes, which is something that President Trump said yesterday they haven't done enough, referring to Canada and Mexico. Valeria, Paula and

Vanessa, really appreciate you staying with us to break it all down. A crucial story that will stay across for our viewers. Still to come meantime

right here on the show, President Trump set to address Congress for the first time in his second term as he looks to justify a whirlwind first 40

days the American people. Plus --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Coming up, I'll be looking at the types of high tech, sophisticated American weapons that have shaped

Ukraine's battlefield so far, and how this decision could affect the already fragile frontline.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOARES: Welcome back. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to address a joint session of Congress in just a matter of hours. The White House says

the theme of the speech is the renewal of the American dream. But it's not just Americans who will be paying attention, the rest of the world is

expected, of course, to be watching closely.

[14:25:00]

The President's speech comes after a tumultuous 43 days in office that has seen a significant pivot, upending decades of foreign policy towards

Russia. And as Mr. Trump launched a trade war as we mentioned against Canada and Mexico and China, well, that could have global implications.

Let's get the very latest from our White House correspondent, Kevin Liptak.

And Kevin, this speech, as we just laid out really happening against the backdrop of these growing rifts that you and I have been discussing for the

last two weeks, including not just a rift we're seeing with Europe, or I should say, on Ukraine and with Zelenskyy, but an escalating trade war. So,

talk us through what we're likely to hear here.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes, in that trade war, I think the backdrop to the speech tonight, when you take into account what the

markets have been doing, what the implications could be for the economy. You know, these speeches, you know, normally called State of the Union, not

this year because it's his first year in office.

They're almost always primarily focused on the domestic issues that the President is facing. That's going to be true tonight. But I think when you

talk to the President's allies, they really do want him to say more about the economy, about the persistent challenge of higher prices and inflation,

that is the number one issue for American voters.

It's the issue that most Republicans are hearing about from their own constituents. And I think they would like the President to say more exactly

what his plan will be to bring those prices down. He has not actually talked much about that since he took office. He's talked much more about

tariffs. That has been his primary economic tactic.

Certainly, you see that taking some serious effect today, this back and forth with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The retaliatory tariffs

that have been put in place, Trump promising his own retaliatory tariffs. This is literally the definition of a trade war that we're seeing brewing

in the hours before the President will take the rostrum in the house chamber up on Capitol Hill.

And so, I think Republicans and certainly the President's allies hope that he's able to present kind of a cogent explanation for what he's trying to

do here, both on that issue, but also for this kind of whiplash inducing foray through the federal government as he tries to cut federal workforce

down to size as he guts entire agencies.

That, too, has been something that Republicans are hearing from their constituents on. Not all of them pleased about what exactly the President

is doing. And certainly, the polling is starting to show some skepticism growing about what exactly the President is doing here. So, those are the

two items that I think the President's allies hope he's able to present a message on.

But certainly, the issue of Ukraine is going to be --

SOARES: Yes --

LIPTAK: A big one after that dust-up in the Oval Office, after the announcement that the U.S. would pause the shipments of American weapons to

Ukraine. And I think it's so striking. It was only one year ago that the Biden administration tried to get Volodymyr Zelenskyy's wife here to

Washington to attend that State of the Union, to try and make the case that Congress needed to approve more weapons and more assistance.

Eventually they did. But I don't think anything better illustrates the complete 180 on this issue that Trump has orchestrated than the fact that

she was almost going to come to the State of the Union last year. So, this is an issue that I think as well, people want to hear more about, and the

President sort of owes people an explanation of what exactly he's trying to do.

SOARES: Yes, and on explanation or cogent explanation, as you put it, on Ukraine, focus on Ukraine here. We've now had this -- a sort of apology

really, an olive branch from President Zelenskyy. What has been the reaction, if any, so far, to that? Because I remember also yesterday,

roughly at this time, President Trump was saying that he would make a decision on Ukraine and on this minerals deal by this time, by later on

tonight. So, do we have any more detail on this --

LIPTAK: Yes --

SOARES: Or how the relationship is going to -- going to go forward?

LIPTAK: Well, the way that Zelenskyy sort of phrased that post, it seemed so intentional. He essentially ticked through every item that American

officials had asked of him over the last 72 hours, he expressed regret for what happened in the Oval Office. He said he was committed to peace talks.

He said he was open to signing this minerals agreement essentially whenever Donald Trump wanted him to.

And he said he was grateful for the American assistance, but specifically for the assistance that Trump had sent during his first term, the javelin

missiles. So, those four items are what American officials had said specifically they wanted to see from Zelenskyy. Now, I think the ball is

really in Trump's court. We haven't heard from them officially in any capacity.

But I think it's true. You know, as we said yesterday, we heard the President say that he would want to announce something during this address

to Congress when it comes to this minerals deal. He thinks it will benefit the United States. He had been planning to announce it before the whole

thing fell apart last week. So, I think we should be on the look-out for some news on that front now that Zelenskyy has provided him this opening.

SOARES: Indeed, Kevin Liptak, appreciate it, thank you very much. And be sure to watch -- bring you, of course, that address in full, that's at 9:00

p.m. Eastern here. And maybe after his address, we'll also bring you Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan as she delivers her party's

rebuttal. Well, stay in the United States, U.S. asset manager BlackRock has agreed to buy two major ports on the Panama Canal for nearly $23 billion.

The ports of Balboa and Cristobal sit at either end of the waterway and are currently owned by a Hong Kong-based company. They've been a subject of

major tensions between Panama and the Trump administration, with Trump repeatedly saying he intends to, quote, "take back" the Canal and

incorrectly accusing China of running the waterway.

[14:30:00]

Still to come tonight, as the U.S. pulls the plug on aid to Ukraine, can Europe really make up the shortfall? We'll break up the numbers for you.

Also, Arab leaders meeting now in Cairo, their proposal for a post-war Gaza that may not include a role for Hamas. Both those stories after this very

short break. You are watching CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOARES: And back to our top story this hour. Donald Trump's suspension of all U.S. military aid to Ukraine. That includes critical ammunition,

advanced weapons, as well as military vehicles. Most significantly, it also includes Patriot air defense missiles. Those U.S. provided weapons have

been a game changer, really, for Ukraine, allowing it to protect its guys from Russian attacks.

Now, Kyiv is saying it could run out of them in just a matter of weeks. Europe is scrambling to adjust to this new reality. The E.U. is pledging a

new $150 billion loans program to help countries in the bloc boost the defense spending and increase their support for Ukraine.

[14:35:00]

And it comes as the Trump administration is trying to get Kyiv to sign a rare minerals deal with the U.S. and a peace deal with Russia. Just take a

listen to U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance speaking on Fox News.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J. D. VANCE, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine

again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine. That is a way better security guarantee

than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40 years.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SOARES: Well, CNN's Clare Sebastian takes a look now at the role the U.S. weapons have played in Ukraine's war effort and whether Kyiv and Europe can

make up the shortfall. Have a look at this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A U.S. long-range ATACMS missile in action in Ukraine, just one of the highly sophisticated U.S. weapons

arguably keeping Ukraine in this fight now in doubt.

Well, it's clear that the U.S. has become an indispensable player in Ukraine's defense. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimated in

January that the U.S. alone provides about 40 percent. You can see it there on the red section of Ukraine's annual weapons requirements. Europe takes

about 30 percent.

But Ukraine has also ramped up production, up here in orange, ready to supply, the president says, around a third of its own needs. Well, that's

compared to 10 percent, Zelenskyy says, at the start of the war. So, you can see the growth there.

And if you take a look at this chart, you can see Ukraine has had to grapple with unpredictable U.S. supplies before. This shows total donations

from the U.S. versus Europe. The U.S. there in red. It's compiled by the Kiel Institute. for the world economy. And it's clear that the U.S. started

to lag significantly in the second half of 2023. That was when military aid stalled in Congress. It then picked up again towards the end of 2024 as the

Biden administration rushed to use up all of the congressionally approved funds.

This is not just about quantity. It's clear that it's the high-tech U.S. weapons that have given Ukraine really the ability to fight back, from the

HIMARS missile launchers that started arriving in June of 2022, allowing Ukraine to hit behind Russian lines, to then the Patriot air defense

systems approved in December of that year, still, Ukraine says, it's the only system that can stop Russian ballistic missiles. This now, the biggest

area of concern for Ukraine as Russia ramps up air attacks.

And then, of course, The ATACMS longer-range missiles, first used in October of 2023 and last November authorized by the Biden administration

for use on Russian soil. Now, if we look at the frontline map, you can see where we are now. Shortages won't be immediate, but without a deal to

reverse this decision, this already fragile frontline could be in serious jeopardy.

Clare Sebastian, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SOARES: And our thanks to Clare Sebastian for that report. Joining me now is retired British Army Major General Rupert Jones. Major General, really

appreciate you taking the time to speak to us.

Give me a sense really of just of your reaction to the news out of the United States. My colleague there, Clare Sebastian, really breaking down

what that 40 percent contribution to -- from the U.S. means. A pause for now, but if it's carried through, what will this mean for Ukraine in your

view?

MAJ. GEN. RUPERT JONES (RET.), SENIOR BRITISH ARMY OFFICER: Well, good evening. I mean, I think it does two things. I mean, it's the real material

impact that your reporter was just touching on, but also, it's what it does in terms of morale of the Ukrainian forces, the morale of the Ukrainian

people, but also the unity of the Western Bat coalition. So, there's are manifold implications to this.

SOARES: Let's talk then about the weaponry and Clare had a focus on that, the U.S. provides. Speak to how soon, if this drags on or we felt in the

battlefield, I mean, from air defenses to ammunition, which we have heard repeatedly has been in short supply for some time here.

JONES: Yes, I don't think we would expect it to be immediate. In the public domain, we don't know exactly what reserves the Ukrainians are

holding, but we wouldn't expect it to be immediate. But you would then expect them to start -- the Ukrainians to start rationing the materials

that they have got.

You talked about air defense systems and that I think is -- will probably be Zelenskyy's biggest concern, the denial of Patriot missiles, which is so

important to defeating Russian ballistic attack. So, that'll certainly be a concern.

They'll be concerned about, as you say, long-range weapon systems such as ATACMS, other nations providing those as well, not least the United

Kingdom. But also, they'll be concerned about the provision of artillery ammunition, 155-millimeter ammunition, which is, in many ways, the warhorse

of combat. And the Ukrainians will have to start rationing that ammunition, which they have done early in the war as well.

[14:40:00]

SOARES: And, Major General, on the Patriot missiles, on the ATACMS, not so much ammunition, but on those two, can Europe really fill that void? Can

Europe make up the gap?

JONES: Not quickly. I think that's the reality. You know, we should be clear that Europe has provided a very significant amount of the aid to the

Ukrainians through the course of this war. But equally, there are some bespoke systems that only the United States have been able to provide,

particularly, as you say the Patriot missiles.

Europe is working hard to build up its industrial base, defense industrial base. I should say, so is America. No nation can build up its defense

industrial base rapidly, neither Americans nor the Europeans. But -- so, Europe can fill the void over time, but how much time do we have?

SOARES: Can I ask you where you think this leaves NATO? Because, you know, for 70plus years, 75 years or so, America has been, you know, the steady

backing the -- or the founding principle, you know, Article 5, can NATO Survive? The next four years of Trump?

JONES: Well, I mean, what a question. I mean, I'm a great believer in NATO. It is the ultimate guarantor of our collective security, including of

the United States. And we should remember, as should the current American administration, Article 5 has only ever been enacted once, and it was done

so in support of the United States.

SOARES: Yes.

JONES: There are some in the administration who might do well to study their history books, think a bit more and speak a little bit less. For all

of that said, I have served alongside Americans for a great percentage of my career, I have nothing but respect for the American nation and the

American military. And I can only hope that this is a short-term hiatus shall we say, and that cool heads will prevail.

I have to say that we need some advice going to President Trump and indeed his vice president, to think slightly more carefully about what they're

doing.

SOARES: Major General Rupert Jones, as always, appreciate it. Thank you.

JONES: Thank you very much.

SOARES: And still to come tonight, a delicate ceasefire hanging by a thread. Why Israel says the next few days are crucial to keeping the truce

with Hamas from collapsing. That's after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:45:00]

SOARES: With the very fragile truce in Gaza teetering on the brink of collapse, Arab leaders are holding an emergency summit in Cairo. They have

been discussing, and are discussing, their own post-war plan for Gaza, an alternative to President Trump's Riviera, of course, proposal, which called

for the displacement of all Palestinians.

The plan prepared by Egypt would exclude Hamas from a post-war government in the enclave. It calls for the creation of an independent Palestinian

committee of technocrats to rule for six months under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority. A Palestinian police force would be trained by Egypt

and Jordan.

This as a spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is suggesting Israel make Gaza's water and electricity supply. And this comes after

Israel's decision to block humanitarian aid to Gaza unless Hamas agrees to extend the first phase of the ceasefire deal, which of course is expired on

Saturday. There should be discussions over the second phase.

For more perspective I want to welcome in H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security

Studies, a well-known face here on the show. H.A., great to have you back on the show.

So, look, Arab leaders, I believe, are still meeting. We're expecting to hear from them in the next kind of few minutes at all if they do this press

conference, but they clearly have been under pressure, H.A., to kind of present an alternative plan to this idea of Trump's of a Middle East --

Riviera in the Middle East. What is your sense of what we know so far of the plan of what is being considered?

H.A. HELLYER, SENIOR ASSOCIATE FELLOW, ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE AND SECURITY STUDIES: Well, thank you very much. It's always a

pleasure to be in your program. So, the plans broad details have been leaked to the press already. In fact, a good write up was on your own

website earlier this evening with Becky Anderson and Abbas (ph) and (INAUDIBLE) and others.

And the broad contours are not particularly surprising. They involve reconstruction. They involve this technocratic committee that you mentioned

that would be under the aegis of the Palestinian Authority. Does not mention a role for Hamas in governance, of course, but the question still

remains how to get to that day after scenario.

As you mentioned Israel is now blocking aid coming into Gaza, which incidentally is a violation of not simply the ceasefire, but also the

Geneva Convention, because Gaza is an occupied territory, and Israel is the occupying power. So, there's the tenuousness of the ceasefire, I think, is

extremely tenuous indeed.

SOARES: Yes, and we'll talk about the day after scenario in just a moment because it's all -- of course, all interlinked. None of this plan actually

can work if there isn't a piece in place. But you're right, we've got the draft of the plan that obtained by CNN, by my colleague Becky Anderson. And

under this plan, formulated, H.A., by Egypt, Hamas, like we said, would be excluded from kind of the governance, right?

How will this be received? You speak to the challenges. I think it's going to be run initially by P.A. Just talk -- speak to the challenges here.

HELLYER: Well, there are quite a few challenges. First of all, Israel has vetoed this. Israel has made it very clear that they will not allow for

return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza precisely because then it links Gaza to the West Bank, which makes it more plausible that a two-state

solution would actually be put into effect. So, Israel has made it very clear there will be no return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.

So, if you don't have a return of the Palestinian Authority, and you don't have Hamas, which is, you know, clearly not on the table for that, then

what exactly are you going to have?

SOARES: Yes. So, what exactly? Is there any other alternative at this point? None?

HELLYER: Well, there hasn't been for, frankly, Isa, more than a year, you know, since all of these plans came out about a day after scenario the --

all of the plausible scenarios just kept on being pushed out the window because without a Palestinian Authority presence in Gaza, then it's either

utter chaos or it's Hamas or it's military ruling, i.e., and military administration under the aegis of the IDF. And -- or a combination of all

three, but certainly, nothing that would look particularly stable.

[14:50:00]

And what the plan that has been proposed by Egypt and backed by the Arab League is trying to make the case for us that you can't have a day after

scenario without the Palestinian Authority involved. But again, I think the major challenge here is how do you get to phase three when indeed the

Israelis seem very keen not to go to phase two.

SOARES: Spot on. And let me ask you about this because Steve Witkoff, of course, supposedly in the region or going to the region soon. Hamas says

Israel's renegading on this -- the deal, the first -- you know, the second phase of the deal. Israel says it wants the first phase extended. How do

you interpret then this move by Steve Witkoff, by the United States, and indeed by Prime Minister Netanyahu here, H.A.?

HELLYER: So, there's nothing really to interpret because the U.S. has been pretty clear that they back Israel's decision to block aid coming into the

Gaza Strip. Again, they're not -- a lot of the reportage has indicated that Israel is stopping humanitarian aid from going into Gaza. They're not

simply stopping their aid, it's not as though Israel is sending aid into Gaza, rather Israel simply not blocking international aid going into Gaza.

Under international law, Israel is actually obliged to provide for the welfare of Gaza because it is the occupying power of an occupied territory,

but they're stopping that. And they're not allowing even international aid to get through.

So, the question then becomes, what was supposed to happen at this particular point? The expiry of phase one was supposed to lead phase two

taking place, but negotiations for phase two supposed to have started weeks ago, and the Israelis never went forward with actually sending a

negotiation team that was mandated to actually negotiate the (INAUDIBLE) of phase two. So, Hamas said that, in that case, we just move straight into

phase two, which includes an Israeli withdrawal and a cessation permanently of the war, and Israel said no.

SOARES: And look, we always knew phase one -- phase two was going to be a challenge and certainly, that is the case. H.A., great to see you as

always. Thank you very much.

And still to come tonight, the Vatican says Pope Francis is not out of the woods yet. We'll have the very latest, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:55:00]

SOARES: And after two episodes of acute respiratory failure, Pope Francis slept through the night and has been alert as well as resting, that is

according to a statement from the Vatican on Monday. The pontiff had narrowing airways for the two -- from the episodes that were caused by

significant accumulation of endobronchial mucus.

The doctors were able to remove the buildup and gave him an oxygen mask to help him breathe. The Vatican went on to say that the 88-year-old pontiff's

condition remains complex and that he's, quote, not out of danger. For the third week in a row, Francis did not lead the prayer on Sunday and will not

lead the Ash Wednesday service, marking, of course, the end of Lent.

And before starting Ash Wednesday and Lent, millions around the world celebrate Fat Tuesday today.

Some of the most famous carnival celebrations are happening right there in Brazil. The festivities traditionally start the Friday before Ash

Wednesday. Brazilian carnival is known for its amazing floats, dancers, and parades, and lots of samba. Celebrations are also underway in Europe.

Croatia's carnival parties date back 500 years, and now about 11,000 people take part in the parades.

And finally in the U.S., City of New Orleans, Fat Shoes is better known by its French moniker, Mardi Gras. Expect floats, parades and beads throughout

the city.

That does it for me for tonight. Thank you very much for your company. Do stay right here. Newsroom, Max Foster, a man who can samba, no doubt, is up

next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:00:00]

END