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Laura Coates Live
CNN Provides Updates On Michigan Senate And Missouri House Primary Races. Aired 11p-12a ET
Aired August 04, 2026 - 23:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[23:00:00]
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LAURA COATES, CNN HOST AND SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good evening, everyone. I'm Laura Coates on this election night in America. All eyes are on Michigan, where we'll soon find out if the progressive wing of the party is about to deliver another crushing blow to the establishment.
Right now, the Senate primary remains too early to call and it's a very close race between progressive outsider Abdul El-Sayed and Congresswoman Haley Stevens. El-Sayed is backed by some of the left's biggest names, including Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Stevens has the support of some of the party's mainstream leaders like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
Some of the biggest rifts though in the Democratic Party are being put to the test tonight, including over Israel and AIPAC and the power of outside campaign spending. This is all happening, I remind you, in a state that will test whether the progressive message can travel beyond deep blue areas and it's a must win if Democrats want to take back the Senate.
We are covering every aspect of tonight's primary here at CNN. We've got reports at the El-Sayed and Stevens campaign headquarters and our analysts are here with me in the studio as well. I want to start with John King at the infamous magic wall. John, Michigan, we know the count is a little bit slow, but this race appears to be tightening. What are you seeing right now?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Let's just say Michigan is consistent, Laura, consistently slow --
(LAUGHTER)
-- especially Wayne County where Detroit is. Look, it's a pretty competitive race at the moment. Fifty percent if you round up to 47 percent if you round up. Now, 50 percent to 46 percent because the votes are coming in as we speak. It's the wonder of live election night. Twenty-three thousand, one hundred and sixty-one vote lead. I just said it. It'll change as I continue to speak.
For El-Sayed, that has been pretty consistent. At one point, it got down to 800 votes, and then it stretched back out a little bit. It has been around 20,000 votes for quite some time.
So, what are we looking at? You see the map filling in in Michigan's counties. You see a lot of Haley Stevens up here in the more rural areas. You see more Sayed down here closer to Detroit. But this is the biggest basket of votes. It's about 18 percent of the population statewide. It's Wayne County. That's Detroit and its suburbs.
And we've been stuck for a little bit. First, we were in single digits, but we've been at 26 percent for quite some time. If you look at the Haley Stevens lead here, that's 20 points right there. It was 30 points not that long ago. So, El-Sayed making up a little ground as some more votes have come in in Wayne County.
This is not only the biggest population center in the state, it is the biggest piece of the Democratic base in the state. So, Wayne County will be critical, Laura, as we move from 26 percent higher up because -- just because it's the largest basket of votes by far.
Then you move up here just to the north Oakland County. This is where Stevens's congressional district is out here. El-Sayed event down here, just over the Detroit line in southern Oakland County. More gritty suburbs down here. It gets a little bit more affluent as you move up. Look, again, competitive. This is the second most populous county. So, again, you're trying to get the votes where the most votes are, 50 percent to 47 percent here.
Just move over to Macomb County, known across the country as the blue- collar place. It's a battleground in presidential races all the time. It's a fight in this race. But El-Sayed here maybe thank United Auto workers, maybe thank some other blue-collar appeal, but 57 percent to 41 percent with a little less -- a little over a quarter, less than a third of the vote counted there. So, we'll continue to watch.
Let me just pop back out one more time to see. Up to 43 percent statewide now. So, you're starting to reach a big number. So, then, you're looking for what's missing, right? So, what are we missing in the state right now? If you come in here and take a look -- it doesn't want to pop for me at the moment, so I'll come back to it.
So, you pop right here at the moment. I'm going to just look at Wayne again, at 26 percent. That's the big thing we're waiting for. When Wayne County gets above 35-40 percent, Laura, then we'll have a sense of whether Haley Stevens can hold that lead in the city, which would help her come back, or whether El-Sayed is going to continue to consistently, again, at the moment, 50-46. A lot of counting left.
COATES: A lot of counting left. We'll stay tuned. Wayne County seems like the ultimate prize. John King, please stand by, as always.
I'm going to get to CNN's Arlette Saenz, who is in Detroit, at the El- Sayed campaign watch party.
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Arlette, tell me the mood inside. ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Laura, there has been a lot of excitement coursing through Abdul El-Sayed's party tonight as his supporters are hoping that he will be able to declare victory potentially later this evening. Now, they have been watching these results as they've poured in. And there have been different responses as they have kind of seen some of this race tighten over the last 30 minutes or so. But just a short while ago with the latest round of results, the crowd did erupt into loud applause.
Now, El-Sayed, I'm told, is actually on site here at the event. He's in a private area, watching these results with his families and staffers as they come in. But they are really hoping that some of the efforts that they had made in these closing days of the campaign will help to turn out a lot of those voters that they have been speaking to over the course of the past year and a half almost in this campaign. They are hoping to really invigorate young voters, also people not just in urban areas like Detroit but also other rural areas in Michigan.
And so, they will be closely watching to see how these results continue to pour in, but advisors still are feeling very cautiously optimistic about the way that this sign is proceeding.
COATES: Arlette Saenz, we'll keep coming back to you. Thank you so much. I want to know, so, what are tonight's results telling us about the road ahead? Joining me at the desk this hour, we've got CNN senior political analyst Nia-Malika Henderson, CNN political commentator Kate Bedingfield, CNN political commentator Brad Todd, and the former vice chair of the DNC, David Hogg, all with us tonight.
I'm going to pick all of your brains here. Kate, I have to ask you. I mean, El-Sayed is holding out a lead in some areas. Obviously, Wayne County, you're waiting to hear more from. People always talk about the margins and the span, but it's a narrow lead. What are you reading from that?
KATE BEDINGFIELD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER BIDEN WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, it's interesting because all of the public polling over the last few weeks as the race has closed has suggested that El-Sayed was going to have a big night tonight, and he may well ultimately win this race. Obviously, as we've heard, there a lot of votes outstanding. We have to see where it goes. It is closer, I think, than many were expecting even at 9 a.m. this morning.
So, to me, this suggests that some of the big questions tonight is supposed to begin to answer about whether some of the most kind of progressive policies that have been put forth by El-Sayed are palatable outside the bluest districts in this country. We've seen it, of course, in New York, in Washington, in L.A. and in Colorado, and some of the bluest districts in the country. We've seen Democratic socialist candidates, far-left candidates.
Tonight is sort of one of the big tests of can this work in a purple state. It's interesting it's this close, although I will say, you know, for him to be leading this race, having been outspent as significantly as he was, certainly suggests that there is genuine excitement, that he is -- he is energizing voters who are like what he has to say.
COATES: Nia, when you look at this, though, some might look and say, well, narrow. I mean, obviously, everyone has a right to win and run and run the race they want, but everyone has their eyes on November in general election. So, if it's a narrow victory for him or even for her at this point, does that suggest a divided party going into November? Does that bode well for Democrats?
NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: No. I mean, you rather be Mike Rogers, right, who is the Republican presumed -- a Republican candidate on the Senate side. And whoever emerges from this is going to be battered and bruised by lots and lots of negative ads and in tough debates. And they will have to stitch the party back together again.
We've seen this in other races, right? You think about Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, the division there. It's similar to the division we see here with =Black voters going in a different direction. Upper educated white voters going in a different direction. So, whoever comes out of here is going to have some real work to do on day one after victories declare, right after they wrap up their speech.
But, listen, I also think, you know, Haley Stevens's primary argument was around electability, right? And if you look at some of the data on her and some of the polling, it isn't clear that she is necessarily much more electable than Abdul. They're basically, you know, within the same margins if you look at some of the polling.
COATES: Or today's polling results, right? There's a little bit of --
HENDERSON: Against Mike Rogers. And Mike Rogers, listen, he ran before he served in Congress, obviously, for a number of years, lost about 10,000 votes in 2024. This is going to be a dogfight, and they're going to need a lot of money and a lot of outside help from sort of Democratic bigwigs like Barack Obama, like Michelle Obama who doesn't like to campaign. Well, she might need to come in for this one.
BEDINGFIELD: I would argue -- just quickly, I would argue the unifying factor that will help whoever emerges from this primary is Trump's incredible unpopularity, right?
HENDERSON: Yes.
BEDINGFIELD: I mean, this race is not going to be happening in a vacuum. It's going to be happening against the backdrop of a president who is almost historically unpopular.
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At, you know, George W. Bush 2006, I was working at the DCCC in 2006, George W. Bush's unpopularity was a massive driver of what ultimately became a Democratic wave year. Those dynamics are going to be here for whoever emerges from this fight.
COATES: The enemy of my enemy gets my vote. (LAUGHTER)
BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I remember that 2006 election. I worked in a Michigan statewide race in that year. But one thing I can tell you that is different from 2006 is that the Democratic Party is much further left today than it was in 2006, and that's an ace in the hole for Mike Rogers. He's not running against a very big tent Democrat Party like you had in 2006.
I think also what we're seeing tonight is an education split. You know, Abdul El-Sayed is winning places where there are a lot of white college graduates, in Grand Rapids, in Ann Arbor. Haley Stevens is winning Black voters and more downscale blue-collar voters, if you look at those counties.
Well, Michigan is below average in college education and the Republican coalition there that Donald Trump successfully put together twice relied on a lot of non-college voters. And so, that's why Republicans look forward to the general election and say, you know, Abdul El-Sayed, well, he gets voters that are not toward that swing voter universe. That's the electability argument.
COATES: I want to play for you all this moment where El-Sayed is actually arguing about what he thinks Michigan voters want. He says that he doesn't think that they want a moderate. They want an outsider. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ED O'KEEFE, CBS NEWS SENIOR WHITE HOUSE AND POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Isn't it a funny thing to argue that this state only votes for moderates when it has voted for Donald Trump twice? Do you think he's a moderate?
ABDUL EL-SAYED, MICHIGAN SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: I don't. It may just be that this state hate the establishment on both sides and is looking for an alternative and was willing to hold its nose and vote for Donald Trump twice because, at least, he wasn't that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: David, what do you think? Is the middle overrated? Is he right?
DAVID HOGG, CO-FOUNDER, LEADERS WE DESERVE, FORMER VICE CHAIRMAN OF DNC: I think voters are -- I think that there's a division generationally in our politics and at this table where you guys grew up in a politics that is much more left-right. In my generation, it's much more about top-down politics. Increasingly, we feel like we are not getting by. Our generation went to college at some of the highest rates in American history. And we find ourselves off, worse off than our parents over and over and over again.
And I think that's part of what's causing the sentiment of people just voting against the system. I think Abdul's case, for his electability argument, I would say, is that he can turn out young people that historically have not been mobilized, that have not been heard in the political process, that feel like they have no place in it, by showing them that, for example, he didn't need to have $60 million spent on him by AIPAC.
I think it's crazy that people are arguing that somebody who had to have $60 million spent on her, regardless of the results tonight, for the results to be this close despite that much spending, to argue that she is the more electable person in this race, is unbelievable to me.
To your point, too, about these younger people that are not college- educated, for example, or non-college-educated voters in general, I think that those voters are swing voters that are against the system. That's what they know they're against.
That's why they voted for Donald Trump. But, increasingly, they're seeing that he's not delivering, whether it was him saying that he was going to release the Epstein files and then, clearly, he was all over them and didn't release, you know, them, and they're fully unredacted for him, him saying that he's going to end forever wars, and then starting a new one, him saying he was going to end inflation and, clearly, that has not worked out very well.
These voters are looking at the material conditions of their lives and seeing that the non-politician that they voted for in the White House is increasingly not delivering on the things that he has done. And I think that's what voters are looking for. The -- I find it fascinating that we continue to ask people who lost a Donald Trump twice and treat that -- and ask them what is electable and treat them with any amount of credibility.
COATES: Well, her response is that because there is the idea of a top-down. There has been a big push for who are the anti- establishment, not just to be provocateurs, but because they feel so deeply unsatisfied and misled. If this is the spectrum of thought, how do -- how do Democrats have a big tent that's united?
BEDINGFIELD: You know, I agree with a number of things that David said. I think there's no question that voters are looking for change, that a lot of these lower, you know, less engaged voters in particular who were very interested in what Donald Trump was selling say, you know, he hasn't delivered on anything he said he would do. I think that's absolutely true.
What I think starts to become problematic is some of the positions being articulated by progressive candidates are just unpalatable to swing voters. I mean, if you start digging in, for example, Medicare- for-all, you start talking to people about what Medicare-for-all actually mean, and they learn what it means, I won't have my private health insurance anymore, it becomes like 70, 75, 80 percent unpopular.
So, I think the challenge for a candidate like El-Sayed and, again, I don't disagree with a lot of what David is saying, but I think the challenge becomes how do you -- how you articulate a vision for the future that doesn't feel like it's so far outside of what, you know, a voter who's not super engaged in politics, who's not really interested in the back and forth of a policy fight, how do you articulate a vision that feels like I'm going to take on the big corporations, the big money.
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I think that's part of the reason that his argument about getting money out of politics has been -- has been powerful and persuasive. I think, you know, moderate candidates can and should make that argument, too.
TODD: I think David is partly right. The idea that whether -- that there's an establishment and it's not working and that a lot of young voters who are marginal to the process and old voters who are marginal to process, they are after the establishment, but that does not mean the left-right distinction didn't work.
Kamala Harris lost Michigan because she was too liberal, and she'd said too many radically left things. And Abdul is left of Kamala Harris by a lot. He has questioned whether police should even be armed or whether we even need police. This is exactly the kind of thing that's going to cost him in suburbs that Democrats have actually been doing pretty well.
And I'm going to work on this race, on an outside group in the general election. If I don't sell El-Sayed as the nominee, let me tell you what, it will be a left-right race.
COATES: What do you think, Nia?
HENDERSON: Yes. I mean, we'll see. I mean, that's certainly the argument that you saw Haley Stevens make. That's certainly the reason why Republicans have been boosting Abdul in this race all along. He is a pretty good campaigner. He isn't a Democratic socialist. In some ways, I think he has been caricatured as that.
You talked about Kamala Harris race. I mean, one of the reasons, I think, she probably lost as well was because a lot of the Muslim population in Detroit did not show up for her. They didn't like what her politics were in terms of Gaza and in terms of Israel.
That's something that is a real big topic for him. He has a very distinct -- it's basically a 12-word message. Get money out of politics, get money in your pocket, and Medicare-for-all.
People like Donald Trump not because they thought he was going to do everything he promised but, at least, he was throwing out big ideas for a system that they believe is broken. I think that's what Abdul is up.
HOGG: I think -- I want to -- I want to get back to the idea that Kamala Harris lost Michigan because she was too far to the left. I think the reason why we lost the White House more than anything, frankly, in 2024 is because voters felt unheard by us more than anything.
We told them when inflation was high because of the great -- the less than terrible results than we were expecting in 2022, when inflation was high and they said the economy isn't doing good, we said, no, it's not, don't worry, look at the stock market, look at the GDP. When they told us that there were atrocities that they're seeing on their phone in Gaza every day, we said don't worry about it, Donald Trump would be worse. And then when they saw the president, frankly, that he was quite old and they told us he's too old, we said, no, he's not, and then 107 days before the election, yes, he is.
When you tell voters not to believe their eyeballs or wallets, I think they don't pay nearly as much attention to who's further to left or further to the right, but who's actually listening to me. They felt really unheard. At least with Abdul, I think they feel certainly more heard by him than somebody who is taking nearly as much money as Haley Stevens has because I think, increasingly, voters know that the system is not working for them.
I think a prime example of this that we haven't talked about that is playing a big role in this race is data centers in Michigan where you're getting this really weird coalition of people on the right, some people on the left, that are coming together against Silicon Valley billionaires, that are saying, you know what, I don't want to build this in Palo Alto, so I'm going to come out to Grand Rapids, we're going to build a data center there and make all of your city council members sign an NDA.
People are sick and tired of having oligarchs buy their elections and these corporations go over their own local governments and say, we don't care about you, you're going to get your data center, and you're going to be happy about it as you give billions of more dollars to Israel.
COATES: Not in my backyard is far more than just Michigan. That's the issue. It's happening all across this country. We'll see how it plays out. Please, stand by, everyone. We have much more election coverage ahead. Our Jeff Zeleny is standing by at Haley Stevens's headquarters for an update there. Plus, filmmaker Michael Moore live in Michigan for us on what he calls the Mamdani moment in the Midwest. You're watching a special edition of "Laura Coates Live: Election Night in America."
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COATES: Well, we are following the race in Michigan, the result of the Democratic Senate primary. We've got a lot going on. We'll keep you updated on what's happening there. We've got the progressive candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, who has a slightly higher lead over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. But the race still too early to call with only about what 30 or so percent or a little bit more, with 49 percent of the vote in as we speak. We got a lot to talk about.
I want to bring in a Michigander, a supporter of Abdul El-Sayed and Oscar-winning filmmaker, Michael Moore. He's also the host of "The Michael Moore Podcast. Good to see you, Michael. I mean, you're from Flint, Michigan, and you have written -- quote -- "This is our Zohran Mamdani moment here in the Midwest! This is the time for us and for millions of young voters to shut down the Chuck Schumers and the loser professional politicians who were unable to stop Donald Trump." So, Michael, tell me, what is different about now that Michigan is ready for a progressive like El-Sayed?
MICHAEL MOORE, OSCAR-WINNING FILMMAKER, SUPPORTER OF EL-SAYED: Well, first of all, the Democratic Party, the traditionalists, were unable to stop Trump twice. There -- I've been watching here during the broadcast here at CNN, just how there are so many things about this that I'm -- I still remain very optimistic about what's going on.
You know, whoever was on before me talking about how uneducated we are in Michigan, I thought, well, no, don't get upset. I mean, I really only have a high school degree and, you know, only been able to win that one Oscar. It's not much, you know.
(LAUGHTER)
I know we're not as bright as we should be.
[23:25:00]
It was so kind to hear that about us. Let me tell you something about who we are. I'm wearing one of the hats. The University of Michigan, Michigan State University, our whole public-school system, is called a community school system so that everybody gets to go to school regardless of whatever that -- we have some of the best public schools in the state of Michigan.
And then they have to listen to David. Poor David, he is there. This young man, David Hogg, Parkland High School, I'm sure you mentioned that before, this young man survived a mass shooting attack at that high school in Florida, and here he is now devoting all his time to try to stop the madness. And everything he said there, I was just nodding my head and smiling and happy that he and others like him, especially young people, the only group that's going to save us at this point, they're out there.
The reason Kamala Harris lost, I really like her as a human being, so don't take this the wrong way, but man, she was on "The View" and was asked a simple question. How are you going to be different than Joe Biden? She couldn't answer the question. She wouldn't say what would be different.
And so, all the young people -- by the way, the young people are the ones we send to war to die. All the young people back in the '24 election, like, I don't want to die, I'm not going to die. And we've got a Democratic president in that year who could not think of anything but to give an apartheid regime, all the money they asked for, to kill all the children that they wanted to kill.
And what did we do as Americans? Sure, take the money. Good for you, Joe. No. The young people, you know what they did? I know they did this in Michigan. They stayed home. A lot of young people across the country stayed home. They're never going to vote for war. They're never going to participate in a genocide. And we all knew it and we saw it happening.
You know, I did my own best, trying to get Biden and Harris to listen, and they didn't listen. They lost Michigan. They lost the Muslim and the Arab vote in Michigan. It was very distressing.
COATES: Well, Michael, I want to ask on that point because I know that you have been very deeply invested in politics and trying to ensure that those who have felt unseen feel as though they can be these equal and viable as they should be participants in our democracy. But there are many who are looking at the race in Michigan as but one example, and they're asking a big question. Here it is. Do you think that El-Sayed can win in a general election in November in order to change the outcomes that you have articulated?
MOORE: Absolutely. No doubt in my mind, whatsoever. Believe me, I would not encourage anybody to get involved in something that's going to give us the third Trump term. And everybody watching this knows right now this guy still hasn't stopped thinking about the third term. So, we all need to be active. We need to get up. Young people, don't give up. Don't give up at all.
When I was your age, and thank you for saying about my involvement in Michigan politics, I'm the youngest person ever elected to public office in the state of Michigan. When I was 18 years old, I ran for office. Eighteen-year-olds had just been given the right to vote just a few months before. I ran, I won, I came in first, and it was such a lesson to me how really all this take is for all of us to get up, rise up, do the work, knock on the doors, make sure people vote in November. It's not that hard, and it's time we started winning.
COATES: One hurdle for that, Michael, I wonder if you contemplate. It's something that I hear from strategists who are looking at the general electorate and this sort of battle, this power dynamic at play between those who have -- who are older voters and those who are younger voters. And there is a clash between what people think is possible and what they think requires the continuation of some aspect of the status quo.
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Do you think that there really is this striking odds between establishment and more progressive candidates on the ability to get things done? Does there -- does it require a change in the establishment and in the way the things are done to effectuate the changes you want to see?
MOORE: If I could get on my knees and beg, it would be for exactly what you just said, because we are not going to win the other way. We lost that way in '24. It's not going to happen if we allow this to happen. We are in charge of this. We need to get busy.
Right now, it is not about -- let me tell you, I've known Dr. El-Sayed for many years. I worked on his campaign for governor in 2018. Boy, we would be so lucky if he were our senator representing us and standing up for the people who are dying every day over there.
And -- but that's all up to us. I can't really -- I will not support hacks in the Democratic Party who have led us to this waterloo. And we all need to commit to that, and we all need to do what has to be done. If it doesn't happen tonight, it will happen another time. This will not stand. This will not continue. The youth of America are going to rise up. They're going to get more involved. They've done a great job already.
COATES: They have been. Michael Moore, I hear you. Deeply invested.
MOORE: We're giving them a planet. They're not going to be able to live on. Thank you so much.
COATES: All the things they inherit are very important. I appreciate you taking the time tonight. Michael Moore, thank you.
I want to bring in CNN's Jeff Zeleny at Haley Stevens's headquarters. Jeff, we've been hearing a lot. How is the Stevens's campaign doing? I know you have Senator Stabenow with you.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Laura, we do. We are joined by a former senator, Debbie Stabenow, here from Michigan. No one knows Michigan better than you. Tell me the state of this race right now.
DEBBIE STABENOW, FORMER MICHIGAN SENATOR: I'd say it's very close. There's still a path for Haley Stevens. But Abdul has been doing very well. And so, I think it's going to be a long night. I mean, I'm used to long nights. The year I won for the Senate, we didn't know until the next morning. And so, I think it's a long night. But I think there's still a path for Haley, and we'll just have to see.
ZELENY: I mean, for as nationalized as this race has become, it is ending in a very local way right here in Detroit, right here in Wayne County. You could feel the energy pick up here a little bit when some of those absentee ballots came in from Wayne County. How important is Detroit to Haley Stevens?
STABENOW: Well, Detroit, Wayne County, certainly, she has a lot of support. She has done a lot of great work in terms of manufacturing, jobs, civil rights, fighting for voting rights, and so on. The whole state is important to both of them, but I think particularly Metro Detroit is very important to Haley.
ZELENY: As you've been traveling around the state with Congresswoman Stevens, I saw you last night in Grand Rapids. You know that this has been a divisive Democratic race. There's no doubt. Regardless of who wins in the coming hours or days, what do Democrats have to do and are you concerned at all about these divisions lingering?
STABENOW: Well, one of the things that's frustrating to me is the whole -- there has been a national debate layered on top of what is a Michigan race. We want to hold this seat for Michigan. We want to be the ones that stop Mike Rogers, make sure Donald Trump doesn't get another Supreme Court nominee. And we bring down costs. And so, from my standpoint, the most important thing is beating Mike Rogers. I will support Abdul. I will support Haley. I know Haley feels the same way. I hope Abdul does as well because what we've got to do is unite.
This is a primary. This is not the final election. I mean, we should be aimed at November and Mike Rogers, who stands with Donald Trump and does whatever he wants, including agreeing to keep a bridge shut down between Canada and the U.S. just because Donald Trump got paid a bunch of money from the folks that have the other bridge. Mike Rogers said Donald Trump was right. I mean, we want a Michigan person.
ZELENY: I mean, are you concerned that Mike Rogers has benefited from all of this, sitting back without having a race at this point? He has been able to define himself again as Democrats have been fighting pretty viciously.
STABENOW: Well, the person that doesn't have the primary always benefits, for sure. And so, this has been tough. The good news is everybody agrees about health care, getting people more health care. Everybody agrees about lowering costs. Everybody agrees about taking on Donald Trump and his corruption.
[23:35:01]
All of the basics, people agree on. People in the Democratic Party all agree. We're going to come together because we have to, because I believe that the future of the country is on the line here and that Michigan has got to show that we're still a blue state when it comes to the United States Senate.
ZELENY: Senator, thank you very much for your time. Still, we are here in Detroit watching the votes in Wayne County, and this could take a while.
STABENOW: Take -- drink some coffee. It's going to be a while.
(LAUGHTER)
ZELENY: Senator, thank you very much.
STABENOW: You're welcome.
ZELENY: Laura, we'll throw it back to you.
COATES: Drink some coffee, she says. We've got time, everyone. Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much. We are taking a quick break here. We got much more ahead as our John King works through the results coming in at the magic wall. So, stay with us.
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[23:40:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) COATES: We are following the Democratic Senate primary results in Michigan where progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed has a narrow lead over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. I want to check back in with John King at the magic wall. John, what are you seeing?
KING: I'm seeing that narrow but consistent lead bounces a little bit. But it stayed around 20. Now, 23,000, 166 votes. It is 50 to 47 if you round it up. So, it's a very competitive race. You're looking at the map. The light blue is El-Sayed. The dark blue is Stevens. You just see it sprinkled throughout the counties of Michigan, Laura. Very competitive race.
Here is where we're waiting most of all, Wayne County, Detroit. A bit of a broken record but it's about 18 percent of the population statewide. It is the African-American community. It is the Arab- American community. It is the biggest basket, if you will. Strongest source of votes for the Democratic base. We're only at about 44 percent in Wayne County. Haley Stevens is leading in Wayne County. This is why you wait and watch here, with 55 percent to 42 percent if you round up. If that stayed consistent as we get through the 56 percent of the vote we're still waiting for, that's the possibility, right? That is the possibility of the map to come back and make up the gap, if, if.
Then you pull out to the rest of the state and you're watching this play out. I just want to show you just north. The second largest county in Michigan is Oakland County. Remarkably competitive here. Stevens though pulling ahead a little bit. It has also helped her close the gap a bit. As you move up, her congressional district is here in Oakland County, and she now has a lead there. We are early on that. It was very competitive, a five-point edge there. But El-Sayed over in blue-collar Macomb County has had a consistent lead throughout the night although we're still at 44 percent waiting.
Don't waste too much of your time as you -- as we wait, Laura. But let me just bring this up and show you how we watch from here on out. So, this is the live outstanding votes if you look at the bubbles, right? So, you're seeing the bubbles wide right now.
I'm just going to stretch the map. Forgive me for turning my back. I just want to stretch the map out a little bit to show you.
The larger the bubble, the largest number percentage of outstanding votes. So, if you see a big bubble, that means we're waiting for more votes there. Where's that bubble? Wayne County. That's Detroit. Michigan has always been slow in the 40 years I've been doing this. Wayne County is notoriously slow for counting votes.
The biggest bubble is here. That's Haley Stevens at the moment. The darker blue means she has been winning. It doesn't mean she'll continue, but winning the bulk of the votes there. But you also see some El-Sayed bubbles here. That's Macomb County. Over here, that's Washtenaw. To the left, where the University of Michigan is.
So, if you're Stevens, you're looking at that big giant outstanding bubble in Detroit and saying, I need that to come back in the race. If you're El-Sayed, you're waiting to see more precincts come in and say, OK, I may have a cushion to offset it.
So, you come back out to the math, we bring it up full, we take this off, 57 percent of the vote in, 22,000 votes if you round that up a little bit, competitive. And if you're in the Stevens's campaign, Laura, this comes down. Yes, a lot of votes elsewhere. She needs a giant. She needs to hold a giant chunk of Detroit, Wayne County as that continues to come in to make up the math.
COATES: Narrow but consistent. We'll be watching. John King, thank you so much. We're also watching another race testing Democrats' position on Israel and AIPAC. Congressman Wesley Bell fending off former squad member and Democratic socialist Cori Bush. So, what does that mean for the DSA? The panel is coming back, next.
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REP. WESLEY BELL (D), MISSOURI: You know what? There is a lot of noise that you hear during campaigns. There's a lot of chatter. There are national headlines. And everybody has an opinion. But we approach this from a very simple -- in a very simple way. We are going to work for the people right here in St. Louis.
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COATES: Missouri Democratic Congressman Wesley Bell celebrating his primary victory tonight in another race that became a kind of litmus test between the establishment and progressives.
CNN projects that Bell will easily beat former congresswoman and Democratic socialist Cori Bush. Bush represented the first congressional district for four years before Bell beat her in 2024 in a race that was dominated by spending from outside groups.
My panel is back with me. I mean, Nia, two years ago, Bell beat Bush by only six points. Tonight, it's a blowout. What has changed so significantly?
HENDERSON: Well, listen, Bush was hoping that, you know, there was sort of a pendulum swing and that she would be carried by some of the Democratic socialists' energy and some of the anti-Israel, anti-AIPAC sentiment that we see in a lot of these races.
But I think one of the things about Cori Bush -- and you sort of heard Bell refer to it there, that he was going focus on his district. I think there was an idea among some folks in that district that Bush had gotten a little too global maybe and sort of focusing on other issues. She, of course, was a member of "The Squad." I think there was some souring on her among voters in that district that she was sort of distracted by issues that weren't sort of the kitchen table day-to-day issues.
This guy, Bell, over the last couple of years, obviously has a connection with that community. They both came up sort of in reaction to Ferguson, right? Both of them are activists. And so, you had Bush -- not surprised in a way that Bush lost. She, in some ways, kind of had some baggage, a little bit of a messy congresswoman when she was in. So, I think some of that stuff just sort of caught up with her when she lost before, and then wasn't able to overcome it again here.
COATES: Let's talk about AIPAC because I think it's an important point.
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We've seen it all across the country. "The New York Times" reports that AIPAC has spent more than $67 million on races just this year, mainly Democrat primaries like Missouri, Michigan. They targeted Cori Bush in 2024.
But, you know, both El-Sayed and Bush to a campaign, on the idea of getting this sort of money outside, out of politics, why do you think El- Sayed resonated more than Bush?
TODD: Well, first off, there's a racial component to this. You know, in both races, the Israel -- pro-Israel candidate found a lot more support among Black voters. Black voters are more devout than white Democrats are. They have more connection to Israel. They're more on the side of Israel in this. Let's not forget, AIPAC's money is American citizens.
COATES: Black voters are more on the side of Israel, you're saying?
TODD: Yes. Black voters -- black Democrats are more on the side of Israel than white Democrats are. That's why we've seen Haley Stevens, in a race where that issue became central, do so well in Detroit tonight and why, in St. Louis, this race wasn't close.
Cori Bush said, two years ago, she was going to tear AIPAC's kingdom down two years from now. It seems like the reverse has happened. You know, I watched this issue. I've done work for AIPAC before. These are American citizens who are making contributions about American foreign policy, just like people who give to the League of Conservation Voters won us in the Paris Climate Accord. That's a piece of foreign policy. American citizens give money there, too. What has happened on the Democratic Party with him? It's just a shame for him.
COATES: Hogg, what's your reaction to that?
HOGG: Well, I think we're seeing actually quite the opposite of what you're talking about, at least in Donavan McKinney's race, which has a sizable Black population. He's in Detroit. He's pulling ahead right now increasingly with about 40 percent of the results in, where he's now five percent ahead of Shri Thanedar in that race.
I think, ironically, for Donavan McKinney, he's actually benefiting partially by increased voter turnout in the Black community and in anti-incumbency sentiment in other parts of that district and kind of riding the boat -- the waves of both Abdul and Haley at the same time. I think that's part of the reason he may win.
And I also think, when we're dealing with groups like AIPAC that have $60 million to spend like you just mentioned, you know, the progressive movement does not have that kind of money, and they have to be more --
TODD: Alex Soros --
HOGG: -- in the races. We have to be more strategic in the races that we're involved in. We do not have -- Alex Soros has not given us $60 million to spend on Cori Bush, to be clear.
TODD: The largest contributor to American politics, though.
HOGG: What do you mean?
TODD: If you look at the newspaper studies --
HOGG: Alex Soros is not going out there and spending $60 million to support Cori Bush or Abdul El-Sayed. That's not happening right now, period. It's not.
COATES: -- the polls say?
HOGG: That's the facts right there. And what we're seeing is the progressive movement, unlike in 2016 and I would argue in some ways like 2018, we are much more in lockstep of how we're using resources than we were back then. And we have substantially more new media that's out there. We have groups like Drop Site and other news sites that are not just part of the mainstream media anymore, and that's what a lot of these young people are getting their information and these candidates are able to raise their money. But when you're going up against group that can spend that kind of money on election, you're not going to win every single race, so you have to pick your battles.
COATES: There was an earlier point you made. I will let you guys respond to it. That's the idea of -- that the -- almost the amount of money that needs to be spent to support you is an indication essentially of weakness as opposed to strength. How do you square that with voters who may fail, in some respects, understand the true machine that is politics and what it takes to have a general election against the frustration of people seeing the influx of such so much money in politics?
BEDINGFIELD: Yes. Well, I think one question is how effectively or one mechanism to judge how effective this can be is -- this line of argument can be is how effectively a candidate can weaponize it against their opponent. A lot of this is a messaging question. I would argue that Abdul El-Sayed has weaponized it quite effectively against Haley Stevens. He has really made this a centerpiece of the race.
People across the board are frustrated with the amount of money in politics. And then you layer on to that frustration in the Democratic Party with U.S. policy with regard to Israel, and it has become central in the race. But the point you're making is, you know, across the board, there is money in politics. There is too much money in politics. That is almost a universally held position.
And so, the question is really, can candidates effectively weaponize it against their opponent before their opponent turns around and weaponizes it against them, before we have actual meaningful campaign, finance reform, and we get a lot of this corporate and special interest money out of politics?
The other thing I would say in talking about Missouri is we should give Wesley Bell some credit for running a good race. I mean, candidates matter. Connection with your community and your constituents matters. And Wesley Bell has clearly, over the two years he has been in office, built strong relationships and was able to run a campaign really focused on, you know, questions of affordability and kitchen table issues and safety and crime.
COATES: So, you don't see this as a DSA establishment candidate distinction in Missouri?
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BEDINGFIELD: Well, I would -- I mean, I guess I would -- I would argue that if we're going to extract lessons, that one of the lessons is running a campaign focused on affordability, focused on kitchen table issues rather than -- I think this is sort of what Nia was getting at in the beginning --
HENDERSON: Yes.
BEDINGFIELD: -- rather than a campaign focused on these bigger global issues, is actually a way to win with voters across the country who just want to know what you're going to do for their lives.
HOGG: Well, it's important to point out, too, the ads that AIPAC was making for Wesley Bell was him saying that he is the progressive in the race over and over and over and over and over again, which is a far cry from what it was back when he originally went.
When AIPAC makes their ads, it's almost never actually about Israel, it is always about whatever the worst polling thing is for the opponent or the best polling thing is for the person that they're supporting. And the ads that he was running was pitching him as the progressive.
COATES: Everyone, thank you. We have so much more. Elex Michaelson will pick up the election coverage. Coming up, next.
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