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One World with Zain Asher
Russia's Wartime Economy Under Mounting Strain; Witkoff and Kushner Held Talks in Geneva on Ukraine War, Iran; Meta CEO Zuckerberg to Testify in Social Media Addiction Trial; U.S. Moves More Military Assets to Middle East Amid Talks; Six Companies Tied to Sarah Ferguson are Shutting Down; Team USA's Mikaela Shiffrin Claims Long-Awaited Gold. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired February 18, 2026 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
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BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: Ukraine's top negotiator says some progress was made as peace talks conclude. "One World" starts right now.
What the nearly four-year long war has done to Russia's economy and the country's future?
Plus, Facebook CEO testifying in a landmark social media addiction trial. And the slopes were paved with gold for American Skier Mikaela Shiffrin,
we're live in Milan with all the latest.
Well, everyone. Live from New York. I'm Bianna Golodryga. Zain is off today. You are watching "One World". Less than one week from now, Russia's
full-scale invasion of Ukraine will enter its fifth year, hard to believe. And despite the intensifying diplomacy in recent months, there is still no
cease fire in sight.
After U.S. mediated peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow wrapped in Geneva earlier, the Ukrainian delegation said that some progress was made. But
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later stressed that key territorial issues remain. Russia, for its part, described the two-day negotiations as
difficult, but business like and said a new round of talks would take place in the near future.
On Tuesday, during an interview with "AXIOS" Zelenskyy, once again, said Ukraine won't hand the Eastern Donbas region to Russia, and accused the
Kremlin of trying to drag out the peace process. Moscow is demanding full control of four regions that it occupies but doesn't fully control.
And another round of talks in Geneva, headed by the same U.S. negotiating team focused on preventing a conflict, not ending one. A U.S. official says
Washington now expects to receive proposals from Iran that will address gaps between the two countries positions within the next two weeks famous
last words there.
Iranian and American negotiators ended their indirect talks on Tuesday with an agreement to keep on talking, but it's not clear specifically what those
talks will involve. U.S. President Trump has been threatening military action against Tehran in recent weeks, and he initially warned Iran that he
was prepared to order an attack if the government did not stop killing protesters.
Just last week, he said that regime change would be the best thing that could happen. As the war drags on, Moscow is also paying a very heavy
price. A prominent think tank says more than a million Russian troops have been killed, wounded or missing since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A casualty rate for a major military power not seen since World War II. The report says despite the high human toll, Russia has secured relatively
small territorial gains on the battlefield, increasing the amount of Ukrainian land under its control by just 12 percent since 2022.
Meanwhile, Moscow's war economy is under mounting strain, while military industries are thriving, the overall economy is seeing sluggish growth,
with oil revenues falling. Our next guest, writing for "The Economist", says Russia's economy has entered the death zone. Alexandra Prokopenko is a
Fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. She's the Author of the upcoming book, from "Sovereign to Servants: How the war against Ukraine reshaped
Russia's elite".
Alexandra, it's great to have you on. I've been wanting to have you on the program for a while now. I've been following your work for years. And you
write that Russia's economy has now entered this death zone, but it's not collapsed. Instead, it is consuming itself. How sustainable is this
negative equilibrium that the Russian economy is in now?
ALEXANDRA PROKOPENKO, FELLOW, CARNEGIE RUSSIA EURASIA CENTER: Hi, and thanks for having me here. It's a good question on how sustainable it is
for 2026? If everything goes as it goes now, so as economists say, if all things are equal, the economy looks sustainable.
But of course, Vladimir Putin and his team could not have the same amount of expenditures spent, both on the war social spending and what is called
maintaining the illusion of normality for the population.
So probably, I think, by summer, when they will revise the budget projections for 2027 Russian government will come up to unpleasant choice
that they need to cut more spending or to raise taxes one more time, because the economy is not doing well. And the key feature of 2026 is that
all reserves are almost the planet.
[11:05:00]
So, no money for pouring problems and unpleasant choices, probably for Vladimir Putin. And of course, it would be a huge relief for Russia to stop
the war and ease financial pressure which comes from the battlefield. But it's not what Russian leadership, if we talk about Central Bank and the
government, are capable or possible to decide.
GOLODRYGA: And as you've noted in this piece, all of Russia's manufacturing growth is coming from the defense sector, really a wartime footing that the
country has been in for a number of years now, the civilian industry continues to shrink. At what point does this war centric model really
hollow out the rest of the economy in its entirety? And what is the longer- term damage that that does to Russia's economy?
PROKOPENKO: In a very simple words, Russian economy now mortgaging future. So, as you correctly said, over the past three years, Russia has developed
a fundamentally new economic structure to what it was before. So, the economy has split into two very unequal sectors and one sector vacuuming
resources from another one.
The first one is a privileged military and military adjacent sector, where their industries are growing, thriving and getting priority access to all
types of resources, financial resources, labor resources, political resources.
The second is everything else, which means civil economy, private businesses, small and medium enterprises, consumer industries. They are
suffocating from sanctions, rising taxes and limited access to capital, because the cost of money in Russia is extremely high. It's 15.5 percent
now, which means that the cost of loan for business is over 17 percent.
So, the most dangerous here is not the division on two sectors, but the type of the growth of the privileged sector, military and military adjacent
one. The economy now runs on military rent, and it functionally plays the same role that oil wind falls played in the zeros on the first Putin's
term, but there is some critical differences.
So, in zeros, money came from outside of the country. They were redistributed through the budget, created consumer demand and had a real
multiplier effect. So, Russia was like a household that received a bonus and bought a car, which this house called, used to drive to work and earn
more money.
Today's situation is different. Military economy is financed from the same resource, from the rent, but only it's much smaller. Money goes on tanks,
drones, shells that are destroyed in Ukraine or to desk payments and other benefits to military. So, bonuses for signing military contracts and
something like this.
The multiplier effect is zero. Resources are simply disappearing. Today, Russia take the same money and buys fireworks for one salute. Money spent,
fireworks exploded, nothing left. And that's the future which Russia Russian government prepares for Russian people.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah, a grim future at that. And by zeros you mean the early 2000s in the early years of Putin's --
PROKOPENKO: Yes.
GOLODRYGA: -- come to power. And oil revenues since this war began have only spiraled downward because of increased sanctions. And standard theory
Alexandra, you're an economist, would say that mounting economic costs would push Putin to some sort of compromise at this point.
But what's really interesting in your argument is that he says to himself, our economy may be weak, but the Europeans are also weak, and we can
outlast them. Just talk about that strategy that he's playing out in his head, and how you think the West should be responding?
PROKOPENKO: Well, there is also one more issue, which is important, that both Putin and Russian leads believe that the West wants to contain Russia
forever. So, the trade-off for them is war or no war, and if peace leads to the same place as fighting, so why you need to stop fighting?
I think it's also a very important reason why Russia doesn't stop. And also, I guess, yeah, Putin think that he watch other climbers, he knows
that he's not in the vacuum. And Europe is struggling. Ukraine is tired. Global economy is weak.
So, I guess best Putin calculus is that he can outlast them all. And he can endure the damage to the economy much better, since there is no political
constraints on Putin.
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He's not tied with elections. He's not tied with money shortages yet and propaganda can do a great job for explaining the population why the
government tightening their belts?
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. It, is notable that out of all of the sectors where you have seen cuts or at least no revenue increases, you continue to see a
focus by this government on increasing the coffers for propaganda, specifically at home, that is a key tool for this regime. Alexandra
Prokopenko, thank you so much for the time and for your analysis. Really appreciate it.
PROKOPENKO: Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: Well, in his latest op-ed, our Stephen Collinson describes double barreled diplomacy run by Trump's quote, freelance peacekeeping
franchise on which global stability and countless lives depend. Stephen joins me now for more from Washington.
You just heard that conversation. There are weak points in the Russian not only military, and what we're seeing the issues they're having with
manpower and the number of soldiers that are killed or taken out of commission, also their economy.
And yet President Trump, continues to put pressure, it seems, on one party and one party only, and that is Ukraine, to bring this war to an end. Just
talk about what role Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have played as messengers from President Trump?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah, that was a very interesting conversation. It helps to explain, I think, some of the big
problems that Witkoff and Kushner are coming up against, not just in the Ukrainian issue, but on the Middle East portfolio that they also have, and
also the Iranian issue.
What's happening is their diplomacy is hitting a brick wall of concessions that the belligerents are not prepared to make. In Russia's example there
that Putin believes he can outlast the West, and he is not going to cede on trying to get that extra 20 percent or so of the Eastern Donbas region,
which he doesn't control, and which Ukraine existentially, cannot give up.
So that is the limitation that I think Witkoff and Kushner, who are these freelance diplomats, they're not working within State Department
structures. They're very much a personification of Donald Trump's idea that there's always a deal to be had.
The issue in Ukraine, I think, here, is that the position of Russia and the need for Ukraine to stay, to keep its sovereignty, really does look that
there may not be a deal that can be had. And if that's the case, that undermines the whole premise of American diplomacy in the Trump second
term.
GOLODRYGA: And you also describe in your piece, this sort of freelance peacekeeping franchise that's being helped by Witkoff and Kushner as the
Gaza ceasefire being their biggest win thus far. But phase two, as we already know, is even more difficult and looks near collapse. So, what does
that tell us about how much control they have actually over all of these issues in their portfolio?
COLLINSON: Yeah. And I think that it's true that they did surprise quite a lot of people in being able to get that ceasefire and putting together
quite an intricate set of steps that would move Gaza away from conflict and towards, eventually, reconstruction.
The problem is, as is always the case in peace negotiations, the easy bit comes first. They're coming up against Hamas' existential concession that
it can't make, which is to disarm, because that would eventually be the end of Hamas. And it's not clear that the administration, or in this case, and
in the case of Russia, and in the case of Iran, knows how to move to the next step?
How to use the leverage that it has, or to develop new leverage in order to pressure you know, the parties for these concessions? In the case of Iran,
they do have leverage, because what they're doing is they're sending this massive armada of ships to stand off Iran to try and give some steel to the
diplomacy.
The question there, I think, is whether Donald Trump really wants to go ahead with a war that many Americans say would be -- that many Americans do
not want to wage, a majority of Americans in a midterm election year when he's already weakened, and a war that could have all sorts of unexpected,
political, diplomatic, geopolitical and economic consequences.
So, in that case, it looks like Iran is betting, perhaps, that it can play for time, and he doesn't want to wage that war. But again, it's a brick
wall that they're coming up against. The U.S. wants to talk not just about Iran's nuclear program, what's left of it, but also its ballistic missile
program and its network of regional proxies.
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For the regime to do that they may see that that questions the future existence of their regime itself, so that may be a step beyond which it
cannot go, and which undermines this idea that Trump believes that there's always a deal even to be had with Iran.
GOLODRYGA: All right. And at the opening, just to go back to when I said famous last words, after noting the two weeks process that Iran says that
it will now move forward in these negotiations, that was exactly the language in the time, the timetable that President Trump laid out before
then, three days later --
COLLINSON: Exactly.
GOLODRYGA: -- ordering those strikes last June against Iran's nuclear facilities, alongside with Israel. Stephen Collinson, fascinating column
and thought provoking, as always. Thank you so much.
Well, 11 more people have been killed from U.S. military strikes on alleged drug boats. These latest numbers from the U.S. Southern Command bring the
overall death toll to up to at least 135. On Monday night, the U.S. struck three vessels in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean.
And late last year, the Trump Administration produced a classified legal opinion justifying the attacks against a secret list of at least two dozen
cartels and suspected drug traffickers. Legal experts argue the strikes amount to murdering civilians, since the U.S. is not in a declared,
congressionally authorized war.
And elsewhere in the Caribbean, life in Cuba is grinding to a halt. The U.S. oil blockade has created a profound moment of economic uncertainty.
Here is what the U.S. President had to say about ongoing negotiations.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Cuba is right now a failed nation. They don't even have jet fuel to get for airplanes to take
off. They're logging up their runway. We're talking to Putin -- Cuba right now, and Marco Rubio talking to Cuba right now, and they should absolutely
make a deal, because it's a humanity -- it's really a humanitarian threat.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Earlier this month, the Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister told CNN, told me the government is ready for meaningful dialog, though talks about
regime change are off the table. Russia appears to be one of Cuba's last allies in all of this, with the Kremlin saying that it opposes the blockade
and will provide, quote, appropriate assistance.
Meanwhile, this fuel shortage has drastically slowed down garbage collection, which could impact public health. Patrick Opmann is giving us a
closer look at the worsening fuel crisis from the streets of Havana.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Owning a classic car in Cuba used to be a gold mine. Until recently, Mandy Pruna
(ph) earned more from one hour driving tourists in his vintage 1957 Chevrolet than most Cubans do in a month. But he's no longer able to make a
living. Just before taking me out for a spin, Mandy canceled his permit to work as a chauffeur.
Everything is uncertain at the moment he says. There's no fuel. We don't know if there will be any, how we will pay for it. There's no tourism. Cuba
is becoming an increasingly paralyzed country as the Trump Administration's policy of blocking oil shipments from abroad cripples an already ailing
economy.
Where, just weeks ago, cars lined up for hours at the pump. Now there's no one because there's no longer any gas. Each day, public transportation is
harder to find. Many switch to bicycles.
OPPMANN: When I first came to Cuba, the Soviet Union had just fallen into more bikes on the road than there were cars. As this crisis goes on, it
feels more and more like we're returning to those times.
OPPMANN (voice-over): The White House is strong arming Cuba's Communist run government to open politically and economically in exchange for the fuel
shipments to resume. Cubans are seeing food prices soar as the crisis drags on. We are paying two, three times as much to restock and keep people happy
a vendor tells me. There's no food. And there's no immediate solution in sight.
OPPMANN: This is the kind of place that I buy vegetables from my family, and most of the products are coming from outside Havana. Transporting them
from the countryside is going to get more difficult, if not impossible. Cuban officials have responded by saying people need to start growing their
own food.
OPPMANN (voice-over): Cuba may just be weeks or perhaps days away from running out of fuel. A humanitarian disaster could be on the horizon.
Already, many fishing boats sit idle. One can't work. The country is stuck. There's no industry. Nothing is happening this fisherman tells me. We'll
see how this ends.
Until then, the best many Cubans can hope for is to stay afloat as their country goes under. Patrick Oppmann, CNN, Havana.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
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GOLODRYGA: And still to come on "One World", Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg set to testify in a landmark social media addiction trial. What we can expect
to hear just ahead? Plus, the diplomatic window remains open between Iran and the U.S., though it seems to be shrinking. Later this hour, I'll
discuss the nuclear talks with a Former Senior Advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden.
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GOLODRYGA: Starting in the next hour in a Los Angeles Courtroom, a landmark social media case goes to trial. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is slated to
testify. Meta and YouTube are accused of intentionally developing addictive features that hook kids on social media and damage their mental health.
The lawsuit brought by a 20-year-old and her mother is the first of hundreds of similar lawsuits to go to trial. Meta is the parent company of
the social media platforms Facebook and Instagram. CNN Tech Reporter Clare Duffy joins us with more. So again, a landmark trial here. What are we
expecting to hear from Zuckerberg himself?
CLARE DUFFY, CNN TECH REPORTER: Yeah, Bianna. This is going to be a huge moment, perhaps the most important day of this trial. This is Zuckerberg's
first time testifying before a jury about these years old claims that his platforms have harmed young users, and because this is a jury trial, it's
going to be very important how he performs on the stand today.
Does he seem likable and trustworthy to this jury like Instagram CEO Adam Massey, who testified last week? We expect that Mark Zuckerberg is going to
get questions about whether this company put profits over the safety of young users. Throughout this trial, Meta has talked about the safety
features that it's rolled out, like parental oversight tools, default privacy settings and content restrictions for teen users.
And Zuckerberg is going to get questions about what Meta knows and knew about the risks to young people on its platforms? And whether those efforts
were really enough to mitigate those risks? Now, Meta has argued that this 20-year-old woman, Kaylee, who filed this lawsuit, dealt with mental health
challenges, not because of Instagram and social media, but because she had a difficult childhood.
A Meta spokesperson telling me, ahead of this hearing today, quote, the question for the jury in Los Angeles is whether Instagram was a substantial
factor in the plaintiff's mental health struggles? The evidence will show she faced many significant, difficult challenges well before she ever used
social media.
But of course, that is what the jury is going to have to suss out here. Was this really Instagram's fault, or was it due to these other family
challenges that this plaintiff had?
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GOLODRYGA: And Clare, you've also been speaking with parents who are hoping to be in that courtroom as well. What are they telling you?
DUFFY: This is such an important moment for parents who for years, have been calling on Meta and other social media companies to do more to protect
young users. And what's really interesting here is that among the parents that are hoping to get into the courtroom today.
You see those live pictures of parents standing outside gathering in front of the courthouse today, among them are parents who were actually in the
audience back in 2024 on Capitol Hill, when Mark Zuckerberg turned around and apologized to parents who say their children faced social media harm.
So, they were there in 2024 there again today, hoping to hear more explanation from Mark Zuckerberg about what happened to their children.
Among those parents is Mason Bogard. She became an advocate on this issue after her 15-year-old son, Mason died trying to replicate an online
challenge he saw in a YouTube video.
I spoke with her before this hearing, and she told me, we're all doing our best as parents, but we are fighting these trillion-dollar companies. So,
she and these other parents there today are hoping that this trial leads to more change by the social media companies Bianna.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah, the outcome of this trial could be consequential for the industry as a whole. That's one of the reasons we're watching this so
closely. Clare Duffy, thank you so much. And still to come for us, peace is being moved into place. We'll look into the massive U.S. military build-up
in the Middle East and explain why this move is concerning some allies?
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GOLODRYGA: Welcome back to "One World". I'm Bianna Golodryga in New York. Here are some headlines we're watching today. DNA found on a glove near
Nancy Guthrie's Arizona home did not have a match in the FBI's database, nor did it match DNA found at her home.
Investigators are now going into gun shops in the Tucson area, trying to learn more about the gun holster seen in the doorbell video as her
disappearance now stretches into the third week.
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Rescuers are battling blizzard conditions to find nine missing back country skiers in Northern California after an avalanche on Tuesday morning. Six
skiers have been pulled out alive with various injuries according to the sheriff's office. The area was under the second highest level of avalanche
threat when the skiers were on the final stretch of their trip.
The second day of the U.S. mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have wrapped up only with two hours with both sides describing the
negotiations as difficult. Meanwhile, Russian state media reports the Kremlin's chief negotiator held a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian
officials after the U.S. mediated talks had ended.
And a U.S. official says Washington expects to receive proposals from Iran in the next two weeks to address gaps between the two countries positions.
The same U.S. negotiators taking part in Ukraine peace talks also held discussions with Iran in Geneva this week. The Iranian Foreign Minister
says the two sides agreed on guiding principles.
Well as the world watches these talks play out, the U.S. military continues its significant build-up of air and naval assets in the Middle East. Jeremy
Diamond has the details.
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: A massive U.S. military build- up is underway right here in the Middle East, even as the U.S. and Iran are back at the negotiating table, it's clear the United States is preparing
for possible military action.
Over the course of the last month, more than 250 U.S. military cargo planes have landed in theater based on a CNN review of flight data. That's a
significant uptick in activity, which suggests some of these flights are tied to preparations for potential operations against Iran. That number
also includes flights to U.S. bases in Europe, which have traditionally supported U.S. military operations in the Middle East.
Those flights involve cargo planes that can carry everything from personnel to vehicles to heavy equipment, like air defense systems that we know the
United States is deploying in the Middle East. Satellite imagery is also giving us a look at the U.S.'s more muscular posture in the Middle East.
This is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar the U.S.'s largest in the Middle East. A month ago, you can see 16 planes on the tarmac. A few weeks later, there
are 29 planes, including 7-C17 cargo planes and 17KC135 tankers. Those tankers are used to refuel jets mid-flight, a critical component of any air
assault on Iran.
At this air base in Jordan, 12 F15 fighter jets recently appeared in satellite imagery. We've also identified the deployment of Patriot air
defense systems at that large U.S. Air Base in Qatar. These would be critical to protecting U.S. assets in the region in the event of Iranian
strikes.
The U.S. also has plenty of naval assets in the region. A U.S. aircraft carrier and three warships arrived in the Middle East last month. A second
aircraft carrier strike group is also now on its way. But this is just what we can see from publicly available information.
The last time the U.S. struck Iran in June, we also saw a big build-up of military force in Europe and the Middle East, but it was 7B2 stealth
bombers that delivered the biggest blow Iran, according to the Pentagon. Those flew in undetected from the United States.
GOLODRYGA: Our thanks to Jeremy Diamond for that report. My next guest is Amos Hochstein, who served as a Senior Advisor to President Joe Biden and
Middle East Negotiator. Amos, it's good to see you. So here we have the Foreign Minister Araghchi saying that the U.S. and Iran have reached,
quote, understanding on guiding principles here that Tehran will return in two weeks-time with detailed proposals.
We've heard in the past about two weeks and then three days later, we saw strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The United States also saying that
progress has been made, but some gaps remain as well. And at the same time, Amos you have President Trump deploying another carrier strike group to the
region.
You have the Ayatollah threatening to sink that strike group. So, in terms of who you're listening to and where you think things are headed, do you
think that war or some sort of military kinetic strike is more likely at this point?
AMOS HOCHSTEIN, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR TO U.S. PRESIDENT BIDEN, MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR: Yeah, hi, Bianna. It's good to be back with you. Look, I think
that the strikes military conflict is far more likely than any diplomatic arrangement at this point. The build-up is expensive, it is strategic, and
it is quite massive in scale.
And it will all be in place in the next couple of days. So, by this weekend, the second aircraft carrier will already be in place and in
position. I think -- I listen more to the rhetoric from President Trump and from the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, and then I do some of the progress
reported in negotiations. And to be honest, this progress that they're reporting is not really on any substantive issues.
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It's more on process than it is on actually substance. So, I think that these negotiations have been used by both sides as a delay tactic, to some
degree, by the Iranians to delay enough to avoid a war and by the American side, to be in a position to do it.
The one big question mark that still hovers over all of this, even if you do a massive scale attack, it is not one that is envisioned to have ground
troops, but rather just a massive air campaign. And what happens, even if you do decapitate the leadership of Iran, who comes next, and what governs
Iran, and what it looks like?
And with examples of Iraq and Libya that descended into more chaos than anything else, what happens then? There's been very little discussion of
that. But I think at this point I would be -- I'd be cautious in listening to this two-week time frame that has been floated.
GOLODRYGA: Right. And many are looking back to the president's really the military's audacious and successful snatching of Nicolas Maduro within a
matter of hours and bringing him here to the United States, where he remains held in prison here in New York.
Most experts would agree, even if regime change was the priority and focus of any sort of U.S. intervention in Iran, it would not look like that, that
it would take hours, days, if not weeks, and that there could be a significant price tag, along with that, God forbid, lives lost U.S.
military in the region.
And also, the disruption to the oil supply, you have a real risk of Iran preventing the flow of about a third of the world's oil. Is the United
States prepared for that? Just walk us through some of the potential scenarios that we could see unfold.
HOCHSTEIN: So, I think that you've laid it out, right. I think the Maduro example in Venezuela is definitely not the example that I would look to.
This is looking like a much more significant air campaign that will take several days. Remember, in June, it was 12 days. Here it could be even
longer than that, potentially in conjunction with Israeli forces and air strikes. So, a pretty massive campaign.
I think that you've saw that Iran did a military naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, which is through which a third of the world's oil flows
every day. So, there are a number of scenarios. One, you're able to take out the leadership. And then it becomes a question, does the IRGC, the
Revolutionary Guard that is heavily armed and trained, or the army or the Basij or the police, are they able to take over?
And then you switch from a religious autocracy to a military dictatorship. There is no real opposition leadership Iran. So, what happens there, even
if they can't take over from some of the other forces. Iran has many porous borders with Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, et cetera. People can flow
in.
There can be a breakup of the state, a breakup of the country. So, there are a lot of different scenarios, including Iran using its as it has
threatened to use its ballistic missile and other missile capabilities to shoot at American bases in the region, or American interests or economic
interests in the region, of course, as well as Israel.
That could both cost American lives. But it could also have economic effects if they're able to disrupt the flow of commercial activity in the
from a naval posture in the Strait of Hormuz that can block an enormous amount of commercial activity raise oil prices quite significantly.
So, the question becomes, how extensive an operation? Is it a regime change operation, which it seems that it wants to be, that it seeks to be? And
will the Iranians be able to survive an aerial strike without troops on the ground because they have the postures of forces inside Iran?
GOLODRYGA: I mean, we did see Israel successfully fly over Iranian skies by taking out their air defense systems. Nonetheless, I would imagine that
Iran would respond in some fashion against both U.S. interests and Israel there and other regional allies. If the United States, if President Trump,
wanted to walk away with some sort of expanded nuclear deal, I'd like to get your reaction to how "The Wall Street Journal" Editorial Board views
it.
And then they are arguing that Iran is safest when the U.S. narrows the conversation to enrichment levels and technical nuclear details, because
they say that sanctions relief would stabilize a regime that's already lost a majority of support from the population there, and that is extremely
weak.
And that it is warning Trump essentially not to make the mistake that it calls the Obama era mistake. Would you say that that is a credible concern,
and warning?
[11:40:00]
HOCHSTEIN: Definitely is a concern when you promise to take action as the United States and you don't do it, if you make a warning or a threat or a
commitment to support and you don't follow through, that becomes a risk to U.S. credibility.
I don't think -- look, regardless of what you think about the strikes today, even if you have a risk of credibility, you don't want to make a
decision of war and peace or war versus deal based on fear of looking like you didn't follow through on your word. It's important to follow through on
your word, but it's more important not to go to war and risk a lot of American lives just for that purpose.
I think "The Wall Street Journal" is right. The Iranians want to keep this negotiation over nuclear. Israel has made it clear to the United States
that it will -- that it wants the negotiations to cover ballistic missile production as well. The United States and Israel announced last June that
they delivered a death blow to the nuclear program.
So, it doesn't seem like that should be the biggest concern, unless the strikes in June were not as successful as imagined before, or the Iranians
surprised everyone with reconstruction efforts that were faster than imagined based on the president's statements in June.
I think the ballistic missile definitely focused on the Iranians are focused on rebuilding and expanding their ballistic missile capability,
which is of concern both to the United States and to Israel. But I think again, if there was a way to understand who the next leadership of Iran
would be in the case of a regime collapse?
GOLODRYGA: Yeah.
HOCHSTEIN: I think they would be easier to make this case. The American people are not at this moment supportive or understand why we would be
going to war. So, if there was any kind of reaction by the Iranians that would successfully hit American bases, or American interests or economic
interests, I think they'd be trying to understand, why are we at war?
And so, I think there's a lot of questions that need to be answered here. Regardless, it seems to me like we're heading towards war sooner than two
weeks, unless something dramatic changes that.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. Yeah, hard to envision anything else given the amount of troops now and assets that have surrounded that region. Amos Hochstein,
thank you so much. Really good to see you. Thanks for coming on, come back.
HOCHSTEIN: Always a pleasure.
GOLODRYGA: And still ahead for us, under renewed scrutiny, recently released files reveal the depth of the friendship between Sarah Ferguson,
the ex-wife of Former Prince Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein. We'll bring you those details ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:45:00]
GOLODRYGA: The fallout over the Epstein files continues to impact the British Royal Family and some Former Royals. The latest controversy
involves companies connected to Sarah Ferguson, the Former Duchess of York. Max Foster reports from London.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MAX FOSTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Six companies listing Britain's Sarah Ferguson as sole director are set to shut down as the Epstein
firestorm rolls on. The Former Duchess and her ex-husband Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor are under renewed scrutiny over their ties to the late
financier after Epstein pleaded guilty to prostitution charges involving an underage minor.
Last year, Ferguson's spokesperson said she'd cut off relations with Epstein, quote, as soon as she was aware of the extent of the allegations
against him. DOJ files suggests otherwise. Epstein's crimes were publicly reported in 2006 the year he was also first arrested.
The latest tranche of files released by the Department of Justice reveal the depth of Ferguson's friendship with the late financier, with one email
thread discussing a lunch date in Palm Beach. This was 2009 just five days after Epstein was released from jail after serving 13 months.
It will be myself, Beatrice and Eugenie Ferguson tells him, referring to her daughters at the time, age 20 and 19-years-old. Cannot wait to see you
she tells Epstein in a subsequent email. Another exchange between Epstein and his assistant shows that he paid more than $14,000 to fly the Duchess
and the two princesses to the U.S. on that trip.
Just days later, Ferguson thanks him for being the brother I've always wished for. And the following year, she goes as far as saying, you're a
legend. I'm at your service. Just marry me. Then in March 2011 Ferguson publicly apologizes for being associated with Epstein, saying, in an
interview quote, I abhor pedophilia and any sexual abuse of children, and know that this was a gigantic error of judgment on my behalf.
Except that in private, she appears to apologize to Epstein for publicly denouncing him, calling him a supreme friend. Ferguson's spokesman told
British media this email was sent in the context of advice the Duchess was given to try to assuage Epstein and his threats.
Now publicly available documents show that in the past few days, six companies which lists Ferguson as the sole director, all filed an
application to strike the company off the UK's Official Companies House Register. It's not clear exactly what services those companies provided or
whether they were active at all.
We reached out to Ferguson's representatives multiple times for comment on the exchanges seen in the Epstein documents. CNN has also requested comment
from Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie. Max Foster, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:50:00]
GOLODRYGA: All right, the ski slopes have been on fire at the Olympics today. Norway's Cross Country Skier Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo is now the
most decorated Winter Olympics. And it's a big day for Team USA's Mikaela Shiffrin, the star skier, claimed gold in the Women's slalom after a
fantastic run to ending an eight-year Olympic drought.
For more on the latest Winter Olympic thrills, let's bring in CNN Sports Analyst and USA Today Sports Columnist, Christine Brennan. Christine, good
to see you. And let's talk about Mikaela Shiffrin skiing to Olympic redemption here. This is really one of those instances where it's not just
about the physical skill, it's also the mental too. There was a lot of pressure on her. And listen, it took her all the way back to gold?
CHRISTINE BRENNAN, CNN SPORTS ANALYST: Exactly. You know, Bianna, she has gone through so much. It has been eight years since Shiffrin, who was this,
you know, just this bright light, just coming out as a teenager in 2014 winning gold, and then 2018 coming back with another gold medal, and then
just a terrible Olympics in 2022 in Beijing.
She's still only 30-years-old, and she's talked all about so honest, kind of like what we've discussed with Ilia Malinin, just honest and classy and
dignified, going through the issues, the problems, had a bad crash a couple years ago, talking about the PTSD that she's had coming back from that.
So, to see her in this majestic first run on the slalom and then coming back, basically having a huge lead, but watching other skiers go off the
track or make mistakes. And she came down perfectly and just kind of slumped over in absolute joy as she crossed the finish line with that gold
medal, eight years after her last gold medal.
A true story in triumph, obviously physically, but as you alluded to mentally as well, which is one of the key story lines, really, of these
entire Olympic Games.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. I am so happy for her. I was so happy to see that gold place finish well deserved. Speaking of gold, 10th Olympic gold now for
Johannes Klaebo, extending his record as the most decorated Winter Olympian ever. Is there any debate left Christine and his place in the sport?
BRENNAN: No, not at all. And Norway, of course, continues to dominate the medal count and has for several Winter Olympic Games. I mean, this is just,
this is their thing, right? They're so good at the especially in cross country skiing. This is what Klaebo is known for. There have been five
events he's entered here so far, and he's won all 5.
10 gold medals total in his career over three Olympic Games. The only person who's won more gold medals in any Olympics summer or winter is
Michael Phelps, and he has 23. So, this is just a command performance by a young man who has already came into these Olympics with five gold medals.
Now he's got five more, one more event the Norwegians are celebrating, obviously, as a team, as a nation. Their incredible performance at these
Winter Olympic Games. And in particular, Klaebo, just a leading the way in every sense.
And when we talk about Michael Phelps in the United States or around the world, obviously Klaebo needs to be that -- in that same sentence, in the
sense of as dominating in the Winter Olympics as Michael Phelps has been and was in the Summer Olympics.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. Klaebo being the Winter Phelps, I like that phrasing. Let's also talk about another phrasing that didn't go according to plan,
and that is "The Blade Angels" let down. We had heavily promoted U.S. women's figure skating trio, as they were dubbed "The Blade Angels",
complete even with a Taylor Swift video.
They finished in 3rd, 8th and 13th in the short program. Did we set up expectations that they just couldn't meet Christine? I mean, how would you
sum up their performance and experience here?
[11:55:00]
BRENNAN: That was the short program. They get another shot in the long program. And I expect to see especially from Amber Glenn, the three times
U.S. National Champion, who is the one who finished 13th, I expect to see her skate better on Thursday night.
And Alysa Liu, who's 3rd, if she skates well, she will probably win a medal and end a 20-year drought for the U.S. women. Hard to believe the U.S.
women have not won a medal in figure skating in 20 years. But you know, this is the conversation at these Olympics.
Social media is such a huge part of these young athletes' lives. The sponsorship, the commercialization this is their window. It usually closes
right after the Olympics, and everyone moves on to other sports and other things.
And in this case, it was U.S. figure skating, the national governing body for the sport, coming up with this idea, which is charming, blade angels,
the three athletes, of course, obviously, Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn and Isabeau Levito were all in. They're loving it. Taylor Swift, as you said,
had a video supporting them, introducing them. That's all great.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah.
BRENNAN: But what that does is create pressure and attention, and that can be difficult for young athletes, as we've seen with Ilia Malinin and now,
as we've seen with especially with Amber Glenn having trouble last night in the short program.
GOLODRYGA: Well, we are cheering them on for the long program. It is not over yet. Christine Brennan, thank you so much. Good to see you.
BRENNAN: You too. Thank you very much.
GOLODRYGA: And do say with CNN, I'll have more "One World" after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
