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One World with Zain Asher
Israeli Source: Israel Bombs Compound of Group that Chooses Iran's Next Supreme Leader; Israel Targets Tehran, Beirut as Iran Hits U.S. Gulf Allies; IRGC Claims Drone Attack in Northern Iraq; Saudi Aramco Oil Refinery Damaged by Debris from Drones; Gulf States Intercept Hundreds of Iranian Drones, Missiles; Trump Meets with Merz at the White House Amid War with Iran. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired March 03, 2026 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: All right. Coming to you live from New York. I'm Zain Asher. You are watching "One World". All right, happening
this hour U.S. President Donald Trump host the German Chancellor at the White House Friedrich Merz will be the first European Leader to visit
Washington in the aftermath of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
The visit was actually long planned and initially expected to focus on trade, but the war, of course, with Iran is really like to -- likely to
completely append the agenda. We will bring you this meeting between these two world leaders as soon as it happens.
All right, let's begin with the latest developments as the war with Iran intensifies on day four. An Israeli source tells CNN that Israel has just
bombed a compound of the group that chooses the new Supreme Leader as it unleashes simultaneous new strikes on both Iran and Lebanon.
It is just after 07:30 in the evening in Tehran and the death toll continues to climb. More than 700 people have been killed since the U.S.
and Israel launched strikes on Saturday, according to a U.S. based human rights activist news agency. Israel is also ramping up attacks against Iran
backed Hezbollah in Lebanon as well.
We're learning there Israel's Prime Minister and Defense Minister has just instructed the military to seize additional territory in Lebanon. Iran,
right now is retaliating with missiles and drones across the Middle East. Gulf states are also vowing to fight back. Iran is also targeting the
Kurdistan region of Iraq. And the UN confirms the first damage to an Iranian nuclear facility since the bombing began.
All right, CNN's Nick Paton Walsh joins us live now from Northern Israeli City of Kiryat Shimono. So, Nick, just in terms of the compound where
several Iranian officials have gathered to choose the next Supreme Leader, just walk us through what we know in terms of that compound being targeted?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, sure. Now the images are publicly available of significant damage to this
compound in the City of Qom, where the Assembly of Experts, according to Israeli source, gathered that's 88 senior clerics to essentially choose the
new Supreme Leader.
Iranian state media, though, is saying that the building was evacuated prior to the strike, essentially saying that the bid by the Israelis here
to kill the committee that would anoint the electoral successor was unsuccessful. We don't know the truth of the matter here.
And it's important to point out that earlier on, you know, when we were seeing significant casualties amongst Iran's leadership, we were getting
signals from Iranian state media that many of them were actually OK. So, it's important here to try and assess the exact truth of all of this.
Remarkable frankly, if indeed, 88 senior clerics charged with this extraordinary task would in 2026 think they could only do it after the
assassination of Ayatollah Khomeini, in a large group meeting of leadership decide that they needed to replicate that kind of setting in order to
choose a success.
I should point out, too, that a similar facility of the Assembly of Experts is targeted in Tehran in the recent days as well. So, a pattern here,
potentially, of the Israelis trying to disrupt the succession process. Now I should point out how incredibly complicated this particular leadership
vacuum makes things in terms of de-escalating this war looking for negotiation.
It's clear from some senior Iranian officials, the foreign minister, indeed, that the military now in Iran is acting with some degree of
autonomy, even with previously issued instructions. So, it's not entirely clear if day by day, their tasks are being adapted to the particular
moment.
And if you're also trying to perhaps look for an off ramp, some kind of negotiation here, if there's nobody in a society as autocratic as Iran,
actually specifically calling the shots, remember, they've been dependent on the word of the Ayatollah Khomeini for now on, 40 years now to tell them
precisely what path should be chosen, particularly in a moment as key as this.
That is a very perilous moment of vacuum essentially. You can understand why Israel that's keen to see regime change and as much damage as possible
can be done to Iran's autocracy will continue to persist with that leadership interruption.
But if you are in the White House now and looking for some moment, perhaps where you could seek an off ramp, it's going to be exceptionally hard to do
that with what we're seeing now in terms of strikes against the body to choose the Ayatollah's successor.
Here, though, Zain behind me this is Northern Israel, Kiryat Shimono. We've been hearing jets blast drones over the past hours. Dark is falling. We've
seen along the skyline here 12 blasts or so. Hezbollah firing back the best that they can, two drones reported in the last hour, one appears to have
been intercepted.
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But ultimately, it's not with the ferocity that we saw in late 2024 when the Israelis took their key onslaught that really destroyed Hezbollah's
fire power, its capacity to exert influence inside Lebanon now.
You're right to say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Katz came forward in the last hours and said they had instructed
the military to take additional territory inside Lebanon. We are sort of trying to work out whether that is more than we heard this morning that the
military was saying they were going to take in the morning hours.
The military did not describe this as a ground invasion, more that they were trying to insert more forces between the five separate positions
they'd retained inside Lebanon to create a better buffer zone. So ultimately, civilian areas like this don't have to evacuate all over again,
like they did in late 2024 because of the threat from Hezbollah artillery and missiles.
So, a very fluid situation here, but I think it's fair to say, one where the Israelis are confronting a massively weakened Hezbollah. That even has
the Lebanese government and military ultimately suggesting that they need to lay down their arms and stop aggressive moves against Israel.
And reports, too, from a Lebanese military source that, in fact, the Lebanese military is getting out of Israel's way as they move forward. But
this the first ground moves we've really seen in this increasingly regional conflict.
And one certainly where it seems that Hezbollah, in seeking to join this war and avenge the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, the man who was their
sponsor for so many decades, may be picking a fight that this time it existentially may lose.
ASHER: Right, Nick Paton Walsh, live for us. Thank you so much. As this fierce bombing campaign stretches into a new day, President Trump says
Tehran is seeking talks with the U.S., but he doesn't want to talk to them. On "Truth Social" Trump writing, Iran's air defense, air force, navy and
leadership is gone. They want to talk like I said, too late.
This comes as the death toll rises across the region. Six U.S. service members have been killed. Both President Trump and his Defense Secretary,
Pete Hegseth, have said it's likely there will be more casualties. The U.S. has closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and in Kuwait.
The Embassy in Riyadh was actually struck by two suspected Iranian drones as well. And in a few hours, the Senate is expected to be briefed on Iran
administration officials will then brief members of the House. Let's discuss all of this with Kevin Liptak joining us live now from the White
House.
So, you've got the U.S. President essentially saying, listen, the Iranians now want to talk, but it is simply too late. Another thing the president
and Marco Rubio have both intimated here, Kevin, is that the worst is really yet to come.
And when you look at this from the outside, the fact that you had just in the last few days, the Ayatollah killed the defense minister, killed of
Iran several, at least a dozen, sort of senior leadership Iran also killed.
And then on top of that, we're hearing today the compound where the 88 Assembly of Experts have gathered to choose the next Ayatollah that
compound was then struck. When Trump says or intimates the worst is yet to come what could possibly Kevin be coming down the pike here?
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: It's a good question. And it's not something that I think the president or the Pentagon have provided
much clarity on. You know, for all of these officials, very senior officials in Iran who have now been killed, you still had Pete Hegseth, the
Defense Secretary, out yesterday, insisting that this was not a regime change war.
And so, what exactly the president has in store in the next several days or several weeks, I think, remains something of an open question. And I think
it all gets at what has been an extraordinarily confused messaging campaign by the White House about what exactly the pretext for this war was? Why the
U.S. began it? And what they see happening next?
You know, you had the president out yesterday describing the sort of four- pronged rationale for going into Iran. He said he wanted to take out the ballistic missiles ensure that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. But even
that, I think, raised some more questions and sort of muddled the picture.
Because a lot of what he said both contradicted his earlier statements and contradicted the U.S.'s own intelligence assessment. So, for example, he
said that he thought that Iran was developing a ballistic missile that would soon be able to reach the United States.
America's own intelligence assessment says that Iran was at least 10 years from being able to develop that. You saw those images of the president
saying that he no longer wanted to talk to Iran. Well, it was only two days ago that the president said that he was willing to resume negotiations with
that country.
So, an extraordinarily confusing and muddled picture of what the president is trying to accomplish here. And then I would layer on top of that what we
heard from Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, yesterday, who said that the entire reason that the U.S. began this conflict is because they had
information that Israel was going to unilaterally strike.
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And that that would create a retaliation from Iran that would put U.S. lives at risk. Now, U.S. lives are at risk. Six American service members
have already died. You hear the U.S. encouraging Americans in the region to evacuate.
You know, President Trump, in that interview with Jake Tapper yesterday, said that his biggest surprise in all of this was the scale of retaliation
directed towards some of these Gulf nations. And it should be noted the U.S. is issuing these evacuation orders only after the fact and after major
airlines have ceased operation in the region.
And so, I think a question of why that wasn't issued and recommended beforehand? The one thing you have heard somewhat consistently from the
administration is the idea that this is not going to be a quote forever war. So, you heard J.D. Vance saying that this would not resemble Iraq or
Afghanistan.
You know, I don't think George W. Bush, when he invaded Iraq, thought that that war was going to end up like it did. But President Trump and his
officials seem fairly insistent that this will not resemble some of the quagmires of the past.
ASHER: All right. Kevin Liptak, live for us there. Thank you so much. All right, my next guest is the Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa
Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Ellie Geranmayeh, joins us live now from London. Ellie, thank you so much for being with us.
Our reporter there on the ground outside the White House was essentially saying that one of the things that surprised President Trump was the way
Iran lashed out at some of these Gulf states. And when you think about Iran's strategy here, just in terms of not just attacking air bases, for
example.
But even going after a hotel in Dubai, attacking oil refineries, attacking an embassy, the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh. What do you make of that particular
strategy, because the Iranians find themselves in this really isolated position. They're not necessarily going to get help from the Russians or
the Chinese their so-called friends.
But also, on top of that, they can't sort of resupply themselves with these traditional allies who have been long time suppliers of their weaponry. So,
what do you think of Iran's strategy in terms of the way that they have retaliated here?
ELLIE GERANMAYEH, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA PROGRAMME: So, first of all, it's astonishing to me that President Trump is surprised
by the regional fallout from his war of choice on Iran, because virtually every single expert who knows the region.
Arab partners in the region Turkey have all been sending the message to the president, don't start this fort, because it is going to have repercussions
for the entire region. And now we're even seeing that play out in parts of Europe. And what's even more is that Iran had directly communicated to the
U.S. President that this would not be a repeat of the June war, that once President Trump restarts this military campaign, that Iran would very
quickly move to regionalize the war.
And that is exactly what they have done here. And part of the reason they've done so is to make sure that Israel and the United States do not
come back in four to six months to play another game of whack a mole to attack Iran, even if there's a ceasefire in place like we had in June.
A second reason is to basically up the cost for not just the U.S., but everyone else in the region and Israel, to say that if you attack Iran,
everybody will be paid costs, and there is no clear winner that comes out of this.
And finally, I think the reason why Iran is retaliating in such a widespread way and so quickly is that President Trump, from the get go, has
messaged that this is a war of regime change and has left practically no political off ramps other than the surrender of the Islamic Republic of
Iran on the table.
And so faced with such an existential threat, Iran is willing to seemingly not burn down, just Iran in defending against these attacks, but also many
parts of the region as well.
ASHER: And Ellie just sort of speaking about this goal of the U.S. of regime change. I mean, obviously so many experts have talked about the idea
that it's virtually impossible, or at least extremely difficult, to conduct any kind of regime change from the skies.
Typically, the way you would go about regime change is not just sort of attacking or killing the Ayatollah and several senior sort of leadership
officials in Iran, but you would actually have to find a way to arm the opposition, in addition to there being some kind of opening for any kind of
opposition.
And obviously the opposition in Iran is weak. It's spread out. The dissident voices are spread out in exile around the world. Just explain to
us the actual strategy that the U.S. potentially has in mind, just in terms of helping and assisting the Iranian people.
Clearly, it's not just enough to say, hey, here's your opening. You know, this is the best sort of opportunity you're going to get in years. Why
don't you take it? There has to be some kind of American help. America has to put its money where its mouth is here. How would it go about doing that?
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GERANMAYEH: Well, look, first of all, I think this is a very dangerous track for the U.S. to go down, and it is essentially that never ending war
that President Trump promised his base that he wouldn't get entangled by.
But in the last 24 hours, we have now heard both the U.S. President and his Secretary of War essentially not rule out troops on the ground in Iran as a
potential phase of escalation, which is incredibly worrying because in ground conditions, those U.S. troops would be in far greater risk and in
direct contact with the Iranian adversarial opposition.
Secondly, we are also seeing statements from President Trump suggesting that he's open to arming dissident groups, separatist groups. He's had a
call with Kurdish groups, both in Iraq and some parts of Iran, apparently, according to some reporting.
And so, this for me, reminds me of the days of the war in Libya and also CIA operations in Syria for arming dissident groups that then plunge these
countries into a very chaotic state of civil war. I think that should be very worrying for Iranian opposition groups, who are committed to the unity
of Iran.
And so there must be another way for a transition of power to go that doesn't plunge the country in this type of a chaos.
ASHER: Well, speaking of another way I mean, one of the things that President Trump did sort of touch on is this idea of there not really
being, at this point, any kind of diplomatic off ramp. He pointed out that the Iranians want to talk, according to President Trump, but that it is
simply too late.
And not only is it too late we're actually looking at images of something that happened this morning in comms Iran, where by the sort of assembly,
the sort of Assembly of Experts, the 88 Member Assembly of Experts that usually gather to choose a Supreme Leader, that particular compound,
apparently where they had gathered to choose the next Ayatollah, the next Supreme Leader was bombed.
So, if there is no diplomatic off ramp at this point, Ellie, if it is virtually impossible to sort of unifying and arm the opposition, not that
that is a good idea to begin with, but that, if that is a very difficult -- if that is a very difficult endeavor, what is the solution and how does
this end long term Ellie?
GERANMAYEH: So, look, I think in reality, both Iran and President Trump have buckled up for a weeks' long military conflict against one another. We
are also seeing indications from inside Tehran that they are also not prepared for ceasefire negotiations at this stage.
Because, going back to the reasoning, I said that they are trying to create a deterrence equation that prevents the U.S. and Israel from restarting
another war that could again ignite such a regional ripple effect through the Middle East and elsewhere.
And so, I think they are both in this game of upping the anti-militarily for some time, and in this in between phase, I think there needs to be some
responsible actors, mediators. Perhaps here we're seeing an increased role for tortilla, as some European governments are also standing up to say that
there needs to be a de-escalation track.
So, someone needs to step in to shepherd what a negotiated settlement would look like. That essentially allows this phase of the conflict between the
U.S. and Iran on the military front to end and for them to go back to the negotiating table.
Unfortunately, however, once you start a war, the events that come after that are not always predictable. The U.S. has had a series of wars that end
up going wrong, particularly in this part of the world, and so I think some cool heads need to intervene now to try and push both Tehran and Trump to
de-escalate this wartime conditions.
ASHER: Yeah, but unfortunately, Iran has made now enemies of some of the Gulf states that might have been willing to do that in the past. Ellie
Geranmayeh, thank you. Thank you so much for your perspective, we appreciate having you on thank you.
All right. Still to come, Iran launches new drone strikes against Kurdish groups in Northern Iraq, plus, as war in Iran intensifies, we look at
soaring prices of oil and gas and the impact on consumers that's next.
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ASHER: All right, Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it launched a drone attack and what it called counter revolutionary groups in the Kurdistan
region of Northern Iraq. A CNN team in the Iraqi City of Erbil heard explosions Sunday morning, and video captured flame and smoke near Erbil's
Airport, where some U.S. troops are stationed.
The escalation comes as the U.S. orders non-emergency personnel to leave Iraq and several Gulf States citing drone and missile threats as well.
CNN's Clarissa Ward is live for us in Erbil, Iraq. So, Clarissa, you have these sorts of Iranian militia, Iranian backed militia, essentially sending
drones or launching drone attacks at American bases in Iraq. Just explain to us how much this influence the big picture, Clarissa?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think this is definitely a significant shift in tactic from the Iranians. Up until today,
really the focus of these missiles and drones and rockets that were coming not just from Iran, but Iran backed Iraqi militias, was installations or
places where there were known to be some U.S. military service members are U.S. government workers.
So, for example, as you mentioned, the Erbil International Airport, which is just behind me, over in that direction, also the U.S. consulate in Erbil
coming under attempted, let's say, attacks. Now today, we see that there has been some attacks. The IRGC claimed 30 drones, as far as we can
ascertain, only four drones hit two different Iranian Kurdish opposition militias that are based here in Iraqi Kurdistan.
And that's interesting, because we have seen a kind of wave of speculation that potentially those Iranian Kurdish groups that have been present here
for many decades could be involved with efforts to try to dismantle the regime at some point. And I say speculation, because at this stage, there
isn't really any evidence to support this.
We heard, of course, reporting from "AXIOS", from Barack Ravid, that President Trump spoke to the two most senior leaders here in Iraqi
Kurdistan. That has made everybody here very uncomfortable. The fact that that was leaked, because this is such a sensitive issue, Zain. And for the
Iraqi Kurdish leadership, the two most important relationships that they have, frankly, are with Turkey and Iran.
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So, they are very keen to be seen as neutral actors in all of this. They do not want to be seen to be taking a side one way or the other. And they're
very concerned about the perception that they could be taking the U.S. and Israel side against the Iranian regime in this scenario.
So, all of this, I think, underscoring Zain, what our viewers probably already have a sense of, which is this very complex and fragile lattice
work of alliances and allegiances that exist throughout this region, but particularly here in these Kurdish areas.
And a lot of fear and anxiety at the moment that as the situation ratchets up in Iran, that that could have repercussions across the region, and
particularly here in Iraqi Kurdistan, Zain.
ASHER: All right, Clarissa Ward from Erbil, Iraq. Thank you so much, Clarissa. Let's take a look and see how the war is impacting the markets.
You see, obviously right across the screen, DOW is down one and a half percent. S&P 500 also down roughly around one and a half percent. And the
NASDAQ as well.
Let's talk about the energy markets. Brent Crude, the international benchmark for oil, soaring more than 5 percent to more than $80 a barrel.
And in the U.S., West Texas Crude is up about 8 percent as well. It comes as the Strait of Hormuz a critical shipping lane of the Iranian coast is
effectively closed because of security risks.
Matt Eagan is in York for us with that latest. So Matt, just explained to us why oil prices are up right now. Because, you know, obviously there's a
massive issue when it comes to fears about supply and oil prices rising, and then also what that means for inflation and how much that puts pressure
on American consumers and American businesses as well Matt?
MATT EGAN, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS REPORTER: Yeah. Well, Zain, you nailed it. This really is all about supply fears caused by the war. Investors are
increasingly concerned about the supply of energy out of the Middle East. That's why oil prices are spiking.
Once again, you see an 8 percent increase for WTI. That's the U.S. benchmark. Some context. That means that U.S. oil prices are on track for
their biggest one day increase since Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago. And keep in mind, this is an 8 percent increase after a 6 percent increase
just yesterday.
When you look at the trend for oil prices, you can see that really, for the past few months, oil prices were safely below $60 a barrel. But now look at
this spike over the last few days leading up to the war and then after the war, and it has continued to go up. In fact, oil prices are now on track to
close at their highest level since last June.
And as you mentioned, this is having a direct impact on consumer prices at the gas pump. So, the new national average for the U.S. gas prices is 3.11,
a gallon. Some context, that is a $0.11 increase just since yesterday. $0.11 that's the biggest one day increase in gas prices since Hurricane
Katrina, more than two decades ago. So why is this happening?
Well, as we mentioned, it's all about the supply of oil out of the Middle East. This is a look at some of the oil infrastructure, the terminals, the
refineries, the pipelines in this region. And one of the big concerns, of course, is the Strait of Hormuz. As you mentioned, the traffic has
effectively stopped through the Strait of Hormuz.
That's because of Iranian threats to attack vessels. It's because insurance carriers have dropped their war related coverage for vessels in the waters
near Iran. In fact, according to S&P, there were just two oil and chemical tankers that went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, just two on a
normal day, there's 60.
And so, this implies a significant drop in supply out of the Gulf, including the UAE and Kuwait, and, of course, Saudi Arabia as well. And
just one last point for you, as you noted, this is not sitting well with investors. We saw steep losses in Asia, overnight, steep losses in Europe.
And this is a look at U.S. markets. The DOW is currently down 850 points 1.7 percent. Zain, believe it or not, that's actually an improvement,
because a few hours ago, the DOW was down about 1200 points. But again, this is all about concerns about the supply of oil out of the Middle East
because of the war. Back to you.
ASHER: All right, Matt Egan, thank you. Thank you so much. All right, still to come on "One World", the U.S. closes some of its Middle East embassies
amid Iranian drone strikes in Saudi Arabia. The latest details just ahead.
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ASHER: All right. Welcome back to "One World". I'm Zain Asher in New York. Here are some of the headlines we are watching for you today. German
Chancellor Friedrich Merz is holding talks with the American President at the White House this hour. Merz is the first leader to meet Donald Trump
since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran Saturday. The two leaders are expected to hold talks and then they will have a lunch.
In a few hours, members of Congress will be briefed on Iran. This comes as the death toll rises across the region. Six U.S. service members have been
killed, along with nearly 800 people across Iran. Both U.S. President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it's likely there will be more
casualties.
And Tehran's Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was damaged as the U.S. Israeli war with Iran escalates. Israel struck a compound
belonging to the group responsible for electing Iran's next Supreme Leader. It's also intensifying its attacks on Iranian backed Hezbollah in the
region too. Tehran is retaliating with attacks on America's middle eastern allies.
The price of gas in the U.S. has jumped to $3.11 a gallon on average. That's just $0.11 jump in just 24 hours, the biggest one day increase since
Hurricane Katrina back in 2005. Worries about fuel supplies are pushing prices higher as the war in Iran brings a virtual halt to tanker traffic
through the Strait of Hormuz. That's some waterway used by about a fifth of the world's oil.
The U.S. has closed two of its Middle East Embassies in both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Embassy in the Saudi Capital, Riyadh, had actually come
under attack by what's expected to be Iranian drones. Saudi officials say they intercepted and destroyed eight drones, some over Riyadh and others
further south.
We're also seeing new images of damage at a giant oil refinery in Saudi Arabia too. A fire broke out after the refinery was hit by debris from
Iranian drones that were intercepted mid-air. Production was halted as a precaution. Joining us live now is CNN's Nic Robertson from Riyadh, Saudi
Arabia.
[11:35:00]
So of course, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had this long-standing rivalry. Just in terms of retaliatory measures by some of these Gulf states,
especially possibly Saudi Arabia how might the Saudi's exploit a weakened Iran going forward do you think, Nic?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yeah, I think your question really sort of begs the question as well that's going on here in
Saudi Arabia among officials, which is the idea that Iran is weakened, but how weakened and how to interpret the attacks that Iran is having on Saudi
Arabia?
Drones have been the primary means of attack. And of course, there's a real concern that Iran could choose to escalate and go to the level of firing at
some of its huge ballistic missiles at oil facilities, for example, or as it did overnight at the U.S. Embassy here in Riyadh, or potentially try to
target as they have been doing, as Iran has trying to be doing with drone attacks Saudi's big military air bases, one of them, in particular, just
outside of Riyadh, has been a target.
So, the effort is to try to understand is the command and control the leadership in Iran still in place, still making sort of strategic, careful,
calculated decisions about which Gulf country to hit, when, at what level, what sort of facilities should they and are they hitting?
And I think from a Saudi perspective, they see themselves sort of -- the sort of apex of what Iran would target if it was sort of going to jump to
the very top rung of the escalatory ladder, and that type of attack would be against oil facilities and would be using ballistic missiles. And really
would leave, potentially, Saudi Arabia with little other option than joining in responding to Iran's aggression.
And they say that they have, they leave that as an option to respond to the aggression. But the calculation is a very careful, very precise one for the
leadership here. And they really do have to look at the long term, and what's the U.S. intent at the moment? And what damage does it do to Saudi
Arabia?
And what damage does this do to Iran, and who pays for it? And how does the region recover? And what does it do to Saudi Arabia's image? You know, the
King here is a custodian of Islam's two holiest sites. What does it do to be seen, to be joining a conflict that was started by Israel and the United
States?
What would the lasting perceptions be of that? So, this is multi layered and really complex, but the reality is Iran is targeting them. It did try
to hit a massive oil facility. It did try to hit a military air base. It did hit in two separate rounds of attacks last night, actually, four drones
total hit in and around the U.S. Embassy here in Riyadh.
The embassy is closed. There is an actual high level imminent threat warning for the U.S. Consulate and surrounding area in Dhahran in the east
of the country, much closer to Iran. So, it is -- we cannot underestimate the levels to which the interpretation tries to go and understand.
But the sense is that Iran still is choosing what to escalate when, obviously it's escalating quickly, but it's still very much in Iran's hand,
and that all becomes part of the calculation as well.
ASHER: Nic Robinson in Riyadh for us, thank you. All right, we're going to take a quick commercial break and we'll be back on the other side of this.
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[11:40:00]
ASHER: All right, as the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran shows no signs of slowing, and as Iran continues to lash out at several Gulf States
there are, of course, a lot of fears that this could really dramatically escalate into a much wider conflict across the Middle East.
Joining us live now to discuss all of this is CNN Global Affairs Analyst Kimberly Dozier. So, just in terms of Iran's stockpile of weaponry, I mean,
that is probably the most important strategic assessment that Iran has to make right now going forward.
Obviously, they have a lot of drones, but a recent assessment by the IDF says that they have about 2500 ballistic missiles. Prior to the war in June
last year, they were sort of trying to ramp up production, but in terms of how they carry out this war, especially now that they are in the midst of
lightly dragging in other Gulf States into this.
And now possibly having not just to attack American air bases in the region, but also attacks in Israel, and then bringing in the UAE and an
Embassy in Riyadh into this. How long can Iran last?
KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, they have a finite amount of missiles, but you know, if they have a couple of 1000 left, as
long as they maintain command and control of their various different units launching them, and they had something like more than 400 launch positions
at the start of this that the Israelis especially have been targeting.
They can keep this up for at least a few weeks, if not more. And what we don't really know that how many they have are their drones? They have
various different types of drones, but the Shahed drones, especially the so-called suicide drones are cheap and easy to make, and as we found in the
past few days, the Gulf countries have very little defense against those.
There are ways to detect missiles coming in, but drones can fly low, evade radar. They have a smaller profile, so they can't get spotted by a lot of
the air defense systems. And that is going to be a continuing problem, because Iran may have anywhere from a couple 1000 to more than 10,000.
And there have been some estimates of tens of thousands of various types of drones in stock that spells a threat for the Gulf countries, especially for
weeks, if not months to come, which means oil doesn't move. People don't move. And we've seen what the markets have done in response.
ASHER: One of the biggest problems for Iran, aside from the limited number. I mean, you talk about the fact that they have thousands of different types
of drones, and we talked about the number of ballistic missiles, but one of their biggest problems is that they have no friends, really.
And you think about the fact that just in terms of the next calculation is, you know, possibly try to -- trying to resupply from China. That's not
going to work anymore. They're not going to get any assistance from the Russians or the Chinese.
Based on that, was it a smart or intelligent strategic move for them to open up these potential other fronts in terms of how they've retaliated and
attacked several Gulf States. And essentially squandered the little goodwill, just to use a phrase from a UAE official, the little good will
that they did have in the region, they've sort of seemed to squander it well.
[11:45:00]
DOZIER: Well, I mean, from their perspective, it probably seems like one of their only plays. When they're getting pounded by two superior militaries,
they are trying to have the bank shot effect of hitting the markets that affect countries globally, hitting the U.S. allies who are closest,
starting with the bases that are there, and apparently hitting hotels and places that Iranian intelligence knows U.S. officials have stayed in in the
past.
Now, Russia, for one, has tried to intervene. Russian media had reported that Vladimir Putin was going to speak to the Iranians on behalf of Gulf
oil producers and try to get the Iranians to lay off the attacks on oil fields, refineries and some of the oil tankers that they have reportedly
targeted in the Gulf.
So, that at least is some sort of diplomatic support at a time when the people they normally speak to, the Qataris, the Omanis, those interlocutors
are furious with them right now.
ASHER: We just learned actually, that the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in Lebanon is closed, as is the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait. Obviously, the U.S. Embassy in
Riyadh was attacked. That is now also closed as well.
I want to talk about what Israel is trying to achieve in all of this. I mean, obviously, you know, they face this sort of existential threat from
Iran for a very, very long time. They saw this window of opportunity. But obviously it's one thing to attack and kill the Ayatollah and several sort
of senior officials Iran.
It's another thing to actually conduct a clean regime change, which is a very, very tall order. It's a very, very difficult thing to carry out. When
it comes to what's happening in Lebanon, obviously, they've seized the opportunity to degrade an already weak Hezbollah and tried to create a lot
of daylight and distance between the State of Lebanon and Hezbollah as well.
But just in terms of those two fronts, what is Israel's long-term goal, especially because regime change is something that is very costly and very
difficult, especially if you're doing it via an aerial campaign.
DOZIER: From Israel's perspective, this is existential, and it is a once in a lifetime opportunity that before they were held back from by the strength
of Hezbollah and its number of missiles. Well, that got taken out by after October 7th. Same for the number of proxies operational inside Syria and
inside Yemen.
Now, Israel has been able to target both of those. And then in the last June strike, they were able to seriously weaken Iran's aerial defenses to
make it safer for the Israeli military to try to carry out something like this. The last obstacle, of course, has always been the White House, and
right now they've got a White House that's working with them.
So, I can see from Israel's perspective that they're going to take every opportunity to decimate, destroy as much as they possibly can. Will they
get to regime change, maybe not, but from their perspective, is even when all the dust settles after this particular operation, they go back into
watch and targeting mode.
So, this doesn't stop for them. This is just their biggest opportunity to take as many pieces off the board as possible. Usually, it's the White
House that has in the past, been thinking strategically, big picture global impact, and has held Israel back. That's not happening right now.
ASHER: If you're Saudi Arabia and you're watching all this, and obviously you've seen attacks from Iran on the American Embassy in Riyadh, and also
oil refineries as well. You know, everybody sort of is aware of the long- standing rivalry between the Saudi's and the Iranians.
How might they use and exploit the opportunity that they see with a much more weakened Iran to perhaps jump into the game or enter the fray of this
war in some capacity?
DOZIER: I think Gulf countries are going to think long and hard before they actually attack Iranian territory. There have been a couple of reports out
there that we've been able to knock down pretty quickly, that it's already happened.
It's one thing that, for instance, the Qataris have shot down a couple of Iranian planes that have entered their airspace, but to why get into the
fray when Israel is going to do your dirty work for you? And then --
ASHER: Kimberly, I'm so sorry to interrupt you. It looks as though German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the U.S. President are speaking. Let's listen
in.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: -- get along very well. We have a great affinity for each other. And the Chancellor has been very well
received in Germany.
[11:50:00]
He's very, very successful man. Became the Chancellor of Germany, which is a big deal, and he's doing a very good job, my opinion, a really, a great
job, very popular. And the relationship that we have in trade and everything else has been very strong.
We've been able to do our deals, and it's been very strong. We'll obviously be talking a little bit about Iran today, and he's been helping us out
doing. We've been very nice, actually. And that is coming along, as you see very well. They have no navy. It's been knocked out. They have no air force
has been knocked out.
They have no air detection that's been knocked out. Their radar has been knocked out. And just about everything's been knocked out. So, we'll see
how we do. But we're doing -- we're doing very well. We have a great military, and they're doing a fantastic job. So, we'll be talking about
that.
And we're talking about some very big trade deals, and those I know will work out too. So, I just want to say it's a great honor to have you at the
Oval Office, the beautiful Oval Office, beautiful White House. It's special place, even from your standpoint, and you have some very special places
too. And I look forward to being with you. Thank you very much.
FRIEDRICH MERZ, GERMAN CHANCELLOR: Thank you. Thank you, Mr. President, for having me here in this Oval Office for the third time now. Really happy to
have the opportunity to speak with you in these challenging times.
We are on the same page in terms of getting this terrible regime in Tehran away. And we will talk about the day after, what will happen then, if they
are out. We have to talk about our trade agreement, which I would like to be in place as soon as possible. And we have to talk about Ukraine.
There are too many bad guys in this world, actually. And this is an issue we have to talk about because we all want to see this war coming to an end
as soon as possible. But Ukraine has to preserve its territory and their security interests, and well we will talk about that. Looking forward to
that.
TRUMP: Well, thank you for being here.
MERZ: Thank you for your hospitality. Thank you for letting me spending the night in your guest house.
TRUMP: That's right.
MERZ: Very, very good, comfortable place.
TRUMP: You like it, right?
MERZ: Absolutely. Yeah, great place, and a famous place.
TRUMP: Very famous.
MERZ: -- so many former presidents.
TRUMP: That's right, very famous place. Any questions, please.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: No, I might have forced their hands. You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were
going to attack first. They were going to attack if we didn't do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.
And we have great negotiators, great people, people that do this very successfully, and have done it all their lives, very successful. And based
on the way the negotiation was going, I think they were going to attack first, and I didn't want that to happen.
So, if anything, I might have forced Israel's hand, but Israel was ready, and we were ready, and we've had a very, very powerful impact, because
virtually everything they have has been knocked out now. Their missile count is going way down.
Amazingly, they're hitting countries that were, you know, let's call them neutral, right? They lived together for a long time. They -- I think they
were surprised. I was surprised, I think, and now those countries are all fighting against them and fighting strongly against them.
Someday, they'll write a story and they'll say why they did that, but they hit countries that had nothing to do with what's going on. They were sort
of leaving everything alone. All of a sudden, they get -- they had missiles shot in, which shows you the level of evil that we're dealing with. They'll
hit people that were actually at least somewhat friendly and they had no problems with it.
Also hitting only civilian places, hotels and apartment buildings, and we're hitting them where it is much more appropriate. We're heading up very
hard and the big scale hitting goes now. They no longer have air protection. They no longer have any detection facilities at all left.
And so, they're going to -- they're going to be in for a lot of hurt. These are bad people. These are people that killed, I guess it's 35,000 it's
coming out. 35,000 over the last three weeks, protesters, 35,000 violently killed. So, these are bad people, and the leader of the pack is gone. And
as you know, 49 people were taken out in the first hit.
[11:55:00]
And I guess there was another hit today on the new leadership, and it looks like that was pretty substantial also. So, they're getting hit very hard,
and we'll see what happens. Lot of people are coming forward. A lot of the people you would least suspect want to quit. They want to have immunity.
They're asking for immunity, and probably at some point they'll be dropping, as you would say, laying down their guns. We'll see what happens.
In the meantime, we're just continuing to go forward. Our military is the number one in the world by far, and we are.
This is -- everything's big in my book. Venezuela was big. This is big. The original hit midnight hammer was big. Everything you view is big, but it's
not considered very big by some standards by some of our standards. We have a military like no other military that's ever been built.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: Well, I don't know if there's a worst case. We have them very much beaten militarily from the military standpoint. They're still lobbying some
missiles. At some point they won't even be able to do that, because we're hitting all of their carriers. We're hitting all of their missile stock.
You know, they built up all these missiles over the last few years. They had a lot of them. They've shot a lot of them, and we're knocking out a
lot. I guess the worst case would be we do this, and then somebody takes over, who's as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen.
We don't want that to happen. It would probably be the worst you go through this, and then in five years, you realize you put somebody in who is no
better. So, we'd like to see somebody in there that's going to bring it back for the people, and we'll see what happens with the people.
You know, they have their chance, and we've said, don't do it yet. If you're going to go out and protest, don't do it yet. It's very dangerous
out there. A lot of bombs are being dropped, but I always say that would be about the worst.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead. So, you know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead, and now we have another
group. They may be dead, also based on reports. So, I guess you have a third wave coming in, pretty sure we're not going to know anybody, but we
have.
I mean, Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack and we kept government totally intact. And we have Delcy who's been very good. We have
the whole chain of command, and they've been, you know, the relationship has been great. We've taken out 100 million barrels of oil already.
And a big part of that goes to them, and a big part goes to us. And it's been great. We paid for the war many times over, and we're going to be
running the oil, and Venezuela is going to make more money than they ever made, and that's great for the people. The relationship has been great.
It's been seamless. Nobody has actually ever seen anything like it. If you look at Iraq, where, very stupidly, everybody was fired. The generals were
fired, the military was fired, the police were fired, the fire departments were fired, and all of the government workers were fired.
So, after you know, people would call they had no idea. And by the way, ISIS was formed. That's where ISIS came from, all of the fired people. We
don't believe in that, so we'll see what happens. But first we have to finish off the military.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: I guess he is some people like him, and we haven't been thinking about too much about that. It would seem to me that somebody from within
maybe would be more appropriate. I've said that. He looks like a very nice person, but it would seem to me that somebody that's there, that's
currently popular, if there's such a person.
But we have people like that. We have people that were more moderate. You know these were radical lunatics, and you know what they get? They get
nothing. All they do is kill people.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: -- not your turn, not your turn please.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: What does that mean?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible).
TRUMP: Well, some of the European nations have been helpful, and some haven't. And I'm very surprised, Germany has been great. He's been
terrific. Others have been very good, terrific. I think that the Head of NATO Mark is fantastic.
END
