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One World with Zain Asher
First Purported Message from Iran's New Supreme Leader; Israel Tells Military to Prepare for Expanding Lebanon Operations; Oil Prices Rise Above $100 Per Barrel as War with Iran Continues; Trump Allies to Push President on Clear Goals of War with Iran; Iran War Threatens Higher Fuel Costs Across Africa; Abandoned Pets Find New Homes as Their Owners Flee the Gulf. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired March 12, 2026 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: Hello, everyone. Live from New York, I'm Bianna Golodryga.
ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: And I'm Zain Asher, you are watching "One World". A defiant message released on Iranian state television, said to be
from the New Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. The message was read by a television presenter, and we need to listen to what the presenter said,
that he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MOJTABA KHAMENEI, SUPREME LEADER OF IRAN: I gave this assurance to people that we will not forget. We will revenge on the blood of your martyrs. This
revenge is not only for our martyred leader. It's actually for those who are martyred by the enemy, we will take a full revenge.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: Khamenei also warns the Strait of Hormuz. A key shipping route will remain closed as Iran ramps up attacks on vessels in the key waterway. In
just two days, six ships have been attacked. Right now, the global oil market is dealing with what the International Energy Agency calls the
largest supply disruption in its history. U.S. President Trump downplaying the rise in oil prices.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. Meantime, sources briefed on the initial findings of a U.S. military probe into a deadly school attack in Iran say that the U.S.
military may have accidentally struck the school based on outdated intelligence. And in Lebanon, nearly 700 people have been killed and
hundreds of thousands displaced.
As Israel's Defense Minister has instructed the military to prepare for expanded operations there. This after Iran backed Hezbollah fired a barrage
of rockets at Israel. Let's go straight to our Chief International Security Correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh. He was tracking all of these developments
live from Amman, Jordan.
And Nick, last night, we saw Israel inundated with hundreds of missiles that had been sent from Hezbollah. I believe as many as 200 a number of
them had been intercepted. Thankfully, no casualties as a result. But here you now have the IDF saying that they may be preparing for a larger scale
response, perhaps even a ground invasion into Southern Lebanon.
Just talk to us about the latest and the implications that has now on two fronts.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Hezbollah last night clear to launch a ferociously large enough barrage to
potentially suggest they have more fight in them than we've maybe seen over the past 10 days since they joined the war to avenge the death of
ultimately their sponsor, Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
As you rightly pointed out, most of those intercepted. The Israeli response pretty immediate and ferocious against the Dahieh suburbs of Southern
Beirut. There were eight individuals killed in a strike on a beach nearby there and huge devastation shown in the blasts that occurred across that
whole region.
Now on top of that, the IDF have issued quite remarkable evacuation order, essentially telling people to get out of everywhere south of the Zahrani
River. Now the Litani River, below that, about 20 kilometers, was where the previous forced evacuation zone was declared. This is something new and
something bigger.
And remember, each time a new area is declared as needing to be evacuated, that means hundreds of thousands of people are potentially on the move. And
so, we might actually be looking at people who fled the Litani evacuation zone to the area below the Zahrani River, now having to move for a second
time.
Many indeed fled to Beirut and then found Southern Beirut, increasingly large parts of it being under evacuation orders too. And in fact, we've
also just heard that a building not far indeed, from the central part where the government is based in Beirut is also under an evacuation order.
So, the initial signs are clear that we should expect a further Israeli bombardment of those areas too. But there are also signs potentially that
the Israelis may be moving from the limited targeted raids on the ground that they've been performing over the last week or so.
They went from saying they were two to -- a couple of days ago now to something potentially bigger. Nobody, I think, at this point, has openly
said a grand invasion is imminent. And when we were up there in Northern Israel four days ago, there weren't enough publicly visible troops to see
that.
But that's clearly something that may will be an issue, particularly given the sustained ability for Hezbollah to harass Northern Israel. And it seems
at times Tel Aviv as well, with some of their rockets. Back to you.
[11:05:00]
ASHER: Nick, we did get a statement from the new supreme leader. And what was interesting is that, it was read aloud on state television by a
presenter. We know that the supreme leader was injured in that February 28th attack. We don't know necessarily for sure the extent of the injuries,
but for the fact that we did not see his face, Nick, and we didn't even hear his voice. What can we glean from that?
WALSH: It's possible to read too much into it. Possibly you might have to take into account the security concerns of those around Mojtaba Khamenei
doesn't provide evidence that he's incapacitated or heavily injured, but it's a very odd decision to make, because ultimately, the noise had been
gathering around exactly his condition, his state of health, a very open report about him being injured in likely the same attack that killed his
father.
And so, the question really reverberated as to, when are we going to get a proof of life or a proof of health that the man on top of this theocratic
regime is alive and well and functioning. Instead, a remarkable decision ultimately was made. It may just be security, maybe practicality.
It may be because Mojtaba Khamenei has always been out of the public eye, but his job is very different now, and his job today, ultimately was to say
to the Trump White House, I'm alive and well, providing somebody potentially they might open background back door talks with, or at least
for them to know that there is somebody fully well in charge.
Instead, we had a written statement that state TV said was his handwriting. Odd thing to suggest, read out by the anchor, female on duty that
particular point. And that leaves, I think, many more questions than it provided necessarily answers the content of the speech.
I think we can break down into three key parts of maybe policy here. The Straits of Hormuz will remain closed. There was an element of leverage on
that to Gulf nations and neighbors of Iran to say, close those American bases. And you might see us open the Straits of Hormuz.
And again, reminding them somewhat, you know, falsely, frankly, that all the targeting we've seen across targets across the Gulf nation was
essentially aimed at the American bases there as well. They also called for reparations for Iran, for indeed what has happened. And also at the same
time, Mojtaba Khamenei said that Iran will be looking to seek surprise, potentially soft targets, maybe to catch the United States off guard.
Outside of that memory of his father, of his dead wife and sister, evoked. And you know, at times, clerical language from a man whose clerical
history, like his father, sort of, you know, not entirely the full-fledged nation you might expect from the predecessor, the first Ayatollah Khamenei.
But still an interesting moment where I think many were looking to the Iranian regime to provide full throated proof of their supreme leader's
health and functionality, and instead, we got this.
GOLODRYGA: All right. Nick Paton Walsh live from Amman, Jordan. Thank you.
ASHER: Thanks, Nick. All right, we are learning a little bit more about an air strike on an elementary school in Iran that killed dozens of people,
mostly children, on the first day of the war.
GOLODRYGA: Sources briefed on the preliminary findings of an ongoing military investigation say the U.S. military likely hit the school in Minab
due to outdated intelligence about a nearby naval base.
ASHER: Yeah, Iran state media says at least 168 children and 14 teachers were killed in that February 28th strike. CNN's Zachary Cohen joins us live
now from Washington, D.C. So, Zachary, what we're understanding is that the U.S. military had outdated intelligence, because this elementary school was
apparently once part of an Iranian naval base.
But satellite images show that it was actually fenced off from this naval base about a decade ago. So just explain why this information wasn't double
checked. How could this mistake have been made when it had been at least 10 years that this school had been separated from that naval base?
ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, guys, I think there's two questions that this investigation is looking at. It's the what
happened, and as far as the even the early returns are consistent with what I think had become increasingly obvious as evidence started to emerge
publicly over the last few days that the U.S. military launched the Tomahawk missile that hit this school and killed nearly 200 people.
And I think that's something that is still the White House and the Pentagon have not really been forthcoming and acknowledging, but that the evidence
that has been displayed publicly so far very strongly points in that direction for a multitude of reasons.
Now, on the question of how this happened, the investigation does seem to be leaning into this idea that it was at least contributed to by outdated
intelligence provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is really responsible for creating and updating target lists for the U.S. military,
really, around the world.
And I have been told multiple times by multiple sources that this target list and the intelligence that underpins it is consistently updated. And
so, it begs the question, we know from as far back as 2013 based on commercial satellite imagery that these do seem to be two distinct
facilities.
[11:10:00]
You have the IRGC naval base that appears to have been the intended target of these strikes, that is separated by -- offense is separating it from a
separate facility that appears to be this school. And that's reinforced by imagery as recent as December of 2025 where it's clear that there are
dozens of people that appear to be playing in the courtyard of the school.
So clearly overhead satellite imagery seems to suggest that these were two very distinct locations. Obviously, this pentagon investigation that
remains ongoing seems to have determined that the outdated intelligence did not reflect that. Now, obviously, President Donald Trump has even suggested
that erroneously, that Iran may have been responsible for the strike, even though Iran doesn't have Tomahawk missiles.
But take a listen to what he has said over the last few days.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: No, in my opinion, and based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran. We think it was done by
Iran. Because they're very inaccurate, you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.
I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, is sold and used by other countries. Numerous
other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us. But I will certainly whatever the report shows, I'm willing to live with that report.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COHEN: So, Trump is alone in claiming that Iran may have been responsible. The rest of his senior officials have said that they were going to let the
investigation play out. Trump did commit to acknowledging and accepting the findings of that investigation.
ASHER: Right. Zachary Cohen, thank you for that. Appreciate it.
GOLODRYGA: All right. Well, get ready for more pain at the gas pump, at least temporarily, oil prices shot back past $100 a barrel overnight.
ASHER: Yeah, the U.S. benchmark price, WTI, let's take a look here, just under $100 a barrel, $96 a barrel, and the global bench mark Brent crude,
just slightly over $100 a barrel.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. Iran has hit fuel tankers, depots and infrastructure across the region. The International Energy Agency calls it the largest
supply disruption ever. The Trump Administration calls it short term pain for long term gain.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS WRIGHT, U.S. SECRETARY OF ENERGY: This was a can that could not be kicked down the road one more administration. We need to defang, and we are
defanging Iran's abilities to threaten American troops in the areas its allies, its neighbors and global energy markets. So yes, you've got to go
through short term pain to solve a long-term problem.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Anna Cooban joins us now live from London. We also heard the energy secretary dismissed predictions that oil prices could reach $200 a
barrel. How are his comments this morning across a number of news outlets here in the U.S., including CNN impacting markets?
ANNA COOBAN, CNN BUSINESS & ECONOMICS REPORTER: Well, I don't think they're providing much reassurance that's for sure, and we have to compare them
with the comments from the New Supreme Leader of Iran today, saying that he is intending to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a quote, tool of
pressure.
And I think it's quite telling that despite the U.S.'s military might, it does not control, partly control, that all important trade route. And you
know, we've got at least six vessels attacked over the past couple of days. Reports of mines being laid. This security situation has massively
escalated within the past couple of days.
And to be sure, countries, organizations like the IEA, are trying to respond to that. We saw this 400-million-barrel release yesterday, the
largest in their history from their strategic oil reserves, larger than after Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago. And that was done as much to
provide much needed oil to the global market as to calm investors nerves.
But that clearly hasn't really worked. We're now back up around $100 a barrel, and this, you know, speaking to analysts, they're saying that this
will only tide over the global market for another 20 to 26 days. So, we're really in dire straits at the moment. And to take a step back, the reason
why this is all a problem is because oil is the engine of the global economy, or at least one of them, along with natural gas.
And Asia in particular, is vulnerable. About 60 percent of the exports from the region of oil go to that, go to Asia, and there are many energy
conserving measures being taken across that region at the moment, to name just two. In Pakistan, some schools are being closed. In South Korea, there
is now a fuel price cap for the first time in three decades.
So, what really needs to happen is not promises of potential naval escorts that aren't as yet coming to pass. What needs to happen is that the Strait
of Hormuz fundamentally needs to be reopened so the global oil market can start moving again.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah, you mentioned Asian markets specifically being sensitive to this, Japan has already unilaterally said that they will begin tapping
into reserves to address some concerns about supply. Anna Cooban, thank you so much. And we'll have much more on this and the impact the war is having
on the African oil market later in the hour, with our guests Managing Director of Energy Incorporated Advisors.
[11:15:00]
And still to come for us, President Trump touts, victory in Iran as Americans see rising prices at the gas pump. What he's saying now about how
long the conflict could go on.
ASHER: Plus, Trump allies are said to be pushing the president to lay out clear goals for the war as they acknowledge the risk of political peril for
the Republican Party. We'll discuss that next with our panel of experts after the short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ASHER: We won the war. President Donald Trump is claiming victory over Iran to a crowd of supporters in Kentucky on Wednesday. The president suggesting
the U.S. will stay in the fight to quote, finish the job. The rallies were an opportunity to focus on his domestic agenda, but were overshadowed by
events in the Middle East.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We've won. Let me say we've won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, the bet in the first hour it was over. We
won.
Most people say it's already been won. It's just a question of when. When do we stop? We don't want to let it regrow, and ideally would like to see
somebody in there that knows what they're doing. In other words, they can build a country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: The comments come as Iran steps up attacks on trade routes throughout the region. Now, some of the president's allies on Capitol Hill
are hoping for a quick conclusion to the war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOSH HAWLEY (R-MO): I would hope for a swift end to this. I think that we've achieved our military objectives as the president has laid them out
of them out, as I understand, ultimately, this is the president's choice.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: The lack of clarity from the White House as to when the war will actually end is starting to present a problem for President Trump as gas
and oil prices surge.
ASHER: Yeah, sources tell CNN, that Trump allies are pushing the administration to offer a clearer picture on the goals of the war and the
metrics for success, all to offer concerned Americans a better idea of how this all might end. CNN's Alayna Treene joins us live now from Washington.
So, Alayna, one of the messages that we got from Trump today on Truth Social is essentially this, this idea of saying that, you know, America
produces so much oil that it actually benefits the country when oil prices surge. It's interesting, because even though Donald Trump is technically a
billionaire, he does like to present himself as a man of the people.
[11:20:00]
But this particular messaging does strike me as somewhat disconnected, and some would say slightly tone deaf, especially when you have so many
Americans who are struggling. And just the fact that inflation has been a persistent problem in this country, with people just struggling to afford
basic household goods.
And now, of course, with oil prices rising to triple digits, that does continue to be a concern for a lot of Americans. What is the president's
strategy to handle all that, especially in a midterm year?
ALAYNA TREENE, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yeah. Well, it's interesting, actually, you know, where the president was making those comments. He went
to Kentucky and Ohio yesterday, Zain and Bianna. And that was because it was supposed to be part of this domestic push that they had been planning,
you know, months ago, before this war had even started, this idea of trying to improve on the issue of the economy, on this issue of affordability that
Americans across the country are struggling with.
But of course, what we saw was him get embroiled and kind of pulled back into this foreign conflict yesterday when talking about it. And also, of
course, the impacts of this war with Iran are only hurting this administration further on the issues that they've already been struggling
with, which is the economy and gas prices.
I mean, any American that has been to the gas pump in recent days is really feeling the intense standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and the real impacts
of this war and questions of how long this is going to continue. And so, the president was -- with that. I should note as well, we know that the
Pentagon we have reporting that the Pentagon recently told Congress, and in the first six days of this war, the United States had spent at least $11
billion again.
That's just in the first six days. And so, there's a lot of concerns about what this looked like, and particularly from a lot of the Republicans that
you mentioned, who are up for reelection in November, and they are very concerned about how this war is going to impact them.
Now, as for the strategy that part of your question from the reporting that I have from my conversations with White House officials and Trump
Administration officials, but also people I know who are outside of the administration, who are calling up the president, are in his ear about
this.
They are telling him that he needs to be very clear about the objectives of this war, to portray the U.S. military as being successful in what they are
doing, but also to be clear that this is going to be something that the U.S. is trying to end decisively and quickly. And of course, that has been
a muddied message from the get go on this.
And partly, I'm also told they aren't giving a definitive timeline specifically because they recognize they can't box themselves into one.
They can't give a certain metric or a certain end date and promise that to the American people, because, again, this is ongoing, and we're seeing
attacks continue in the Middle East.
And so, it's really a you know, tricky line for this administration to try and balance, but what we've seen the president really do is try, and he
often does this is claim victory, say that they are winning, while a lot of people still question whether or not that's actually the case of what's
happening over overseas and abroad, Zain, Bianna.
ASHER: All right, Alayna Treene, live for us. Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: For more on this, let's bring in Former Republican Governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson and Democratic Strategist Mo Elleithee. Good to
see you both. Governor, let me start with you and on this issue, specifically of the president's messaging, which continues to evolve and
day by day, hour by hour, he has something different to say about the timeline, about the case for going to war, and about why the U.S. actually
will benefit in the long term here.
The president posting on Truth Social now this morning, in response to the spike in oil prices, the continued spike, by saying that, given that the
U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world. When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. That is an interesting way to strategize the spike
we've seen thus far.
He's also said that this is a short-term excursion. Then he's gone to say that it's very complete. Then he said, we will stay until we finish the
job. Obviously, you don't want to publicly tell the opposition there and the enemy in Iran exactly what your timeline looks like. But what does he
specifically owe to the American public on that front?
ASA HUTCHINSON, FORMER ARKANSAS GOVERNOR: Well, first of all, it's been a great military success, and he's right on that point, the degrading of
Iran's nuclear capacity, dismantling the leadership, all of those things have been great military successes.
What President Trump has to do with the American people is to demonstrate an exit strategy. He does not want an endless war. Americans do not want
that. And so, you've got to be able to secure the Strait of Hormuz so that the global oil supply will not be interrupted.
[11:25:00]
That's what he's got to figure out, most importantly and very quickly, because if you stop the bombing now, if you stop the war now, then Iran
still can hold hostage the oil going through the strait, and so they've got to resolve that issue long term. That's what he's weighing in his mind
right now, America supports what the president has done, by and large in Iran see in them as almost the evil empire, again, a danger to Western
civilization.
But we also are fully committed not to have a long-term commitment there that will continue to drain our dollars and human life?
ASHER: Mo, let me bring you in, because one of the sort of tricky things I think, for Democrats, is that in this sort of first year of round two of
Trump's presidency, we have been hit with so many different things and so many different changes coming so thick and so fast that it is very
difficult for the American population, voters, Democrats, to keep up.
And I mean not limited to. I'm just listing a few of them, tariffs, the threats of taking over Greenland, ISIS use of force, the Epstein files,
Venezuela. And essentially, you know, taking Nicolas Maduro and bringing him, extracting him to the U.S. and landing him in a prison in Brooklyn.
A lot of people who might have been against the Maduro regime would also have been against the way the U.S. went about those voting rights is a
massive issue. And then, of course, the Iran war. I mean, for Democrats, how on earth do you stay on top of all of that, just in terms of staying on
track with the messaging to the American people in the year of the mid- terms?
MO ELLEITHEE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT GEORGETOWN INSTITUTE OF POLITICS & PUBLIC SERVICE: I actually think it's quite simple. This is a president who
promised to make your life easier. Instead, all he has done is brought chaos. He promised to make your life cheaper. But when you walk down the
aisles of any grocery store, when you go to the gas pump, it is anything but cheaper.
He promised that he was going to focus on America First. He has launched more military strikes on other nations than any other president at this
point in their presidency. It's that cumulative sense of chaos when he promised to simplify that I think is the reason that he is at the has the
lowest approval ratings of not just any point in either of his presidencies, but of any president in modern history at this point in their
presidency.
GOLODRYGA: Governor, in terms of the messaging, any serious person would tell you that Iran poses a risk, not only to the region, but even the
world, through its proxies, through its actions, through its threats, through its military development and ballistic missiles, and obviously its
goal towards reconstituting its nuclear program.
But in terms of specifically addressing the American public, and not to mention that over the course of the 47 years of this specific regime, it
has the blood of hundreds, if not thousands of Americans on its hands. That aside the timing of it and how thought out this war is.
It is something that has raised a lot of questions, even with Republicans, even with those that support the president. Are you surprised that that
hasn't been laid out more to the public? We've heard him at the State of the Union. There were a few lines where he hinted at that.
But not to take time to say to the American public, I am the only president now who has been able to finally address this looming threat to America to
the globe to our allies? Why hasn't he done that in your view?
HUTCHINSON: Well, first of all, I mean the timing, no one was surprised, by our war with Iran, I mean, it took weeks to move our aircraft carriers to
the Mediterranean to put them in position. Everyone knew the buildup was coming. It was just a question of where the particular moment of attack
would be, and that was seized based upon good intelligence that obviously struck their leadership.
And so that, to me, is understandable. But to Mo's point, President Trump does lead through chaos. Sometimes he creates the chaos and he leads
through it. And the American public have become a little bit accustomed to it, you know.
[11:30:00]
And most presidents would take an evening address to tell America the specific objectives and what we're doing and why we're doing it, and to
make the case to America. President Trump defines his mission more by sound bites and quick interviews, and so it changes more rapidly as a result of
that.
That's just his style of leadership. The question again, is Mr. President, he's got to answer how we're going to extricate ourselves from this, how
quickly we are, and how we're going to protect the supply of oil, not just the United States, but to Europe, which is really getting the brunt right
now of the higher energy cost, and they're worried about it more long term. So that's what he's got to address now.
GOLODRYGA: And what those exact benchmarks of success are, as well. Asa Hutchinson, Mo Elleithee, thank you.
ASHER: Thank you both so much.
HUTCHINSON: Thank you.
ASHER: All right. We want to show you some live pictures from Beirut, where it is about 05:30 in the evening, more strikes in the Lebanese capital,
more strikes in Beirut. Earlier, Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the Israeli military to prepare for expanded operations in Southern Lebanon.
I mean, I think a lot of people have been caught by surprise by the resilience. The sheer resilience, of Hezbollah over the past couple of
years, despite seeing massive attacks from Israel and, of course, issues when it comes to political leadership, the killing of Nasrallah, they still
seem to be very, very resilient.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah. And this latest attack appears to have been in coordination with Iran as well. We want to show you the scene just moments
ago. It comes after Hezbollah launched a large barrage of rockets into Northern Israel overnight, eight people were killed in a strike earlier
today, and at least 800,000 people have been displaced.
And we'll have more on this growing conflict there now between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel now contemplating perhaps even sending ground forces
into Southern Lebanon. We'll have more on that in the next hour of our program. But still to come for us now, the Iran war is sending shock waves
through the African fuel market.
We'll take a look at the impact there just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:35:00]
ASHER: All right, welcome back to "One World". I'm Zain Asher.
GOLODRYGA: And I'm Bianna Golodryga. Here's some headlines we're watching today. Hours ago, Iran's New Supreme Leader released what is said to be his
first message to the public. The statement warned that the U.S. and Israel must pay compensation for their actions.
It also says the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, will remain closed. Mojtaba Khamenei did not appear on camera, nor did we hear his
voice, and the written statement was read by a TV presenter.
ASHER: Sources briefed on the ongoing U.S. military probe into a deadly attack on an Iranian girls' school say that preliminary findings show that
the U.S. military accidentally struck the school, likely because of outdated intelligence about a nearby naval base.
Iran's state media say that at least 168 children and 14 teachers were killed in the February 28th strike.
GOLODRYGA: Israel has begun a new wave of strikes across Beirut, this after Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets into Israel. It also issued a further
evacuation order for South of Lebanon. Lebanon's Minister of Information says more than 680 people have been killed in the latest escalation of
conflict.
ASHER: And take a look at this video published by U.S. military Central Command. It shows what appears to be strikes targeting Iranian military
aircraft. CENTCOM has also issued a new warning to civilians, telling them to stay away from ports near the Strait of Hormuz.
All right, let's take a look at oil markets. Brent crude prices have gone over $100 a barrel again. There it is, and here is the global benchmark.
Let's take a look here. There's Brent crude $101 a barrel. And WTI, for the U.S., is $96 a barrel.
GOLODRYGA: Hovering around that $100 per barrel range.
ASHER: Yeah.
GOLODRYGA: This as members of the International Energy Agency will release 400 million barrels into the global supply. That's the largest release of
emergency oil stocks in history. The U.S. will contribute more than 170 million of those barrels starting next week, though, the process will take
roughly four months.
ASHER: Saudi Arabia is redirecting trade to ports in the Red Sea so ships can avoid the Strait of Hormuz and attacks from Iran. Meantime, Iran is
warning that the conflict could send oil prices as high as $200 a barrel, blaming the United States for destabilizing the region.
GOLODRYGA: The war in Iran is sending shock waves through African fuel markets and economies, as well threatening higher gas costs, rising
inflation and renewed pressure on currencies across the continent.
ASHER: Africa imports most of the petroleum it produces, it consumes, rather leaving many economies highly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Larry Madowo is in Nairobi with more for us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LARRY MADOWO, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This tanker is delivering more fuel to a gas station in Nairobi, so stocks still exist right now. The
government in Kenya reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage.
Prices have also not spiked as yet. People are still fueling at regular prices. Governments across Africa, many of them reassuring their citizens
that they have stocks to last them for the time being, but they can't make long term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported
refined petroleum from the Gulf.
That is what the challenge is. This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and one economist tells CNN, African nations to start preparing for a
catastrophic scenario.
KWAME OWINO, CEO OF INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS KENYA: While no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite
substantially. Governments need to adjust. What does it mean for governments to have. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of
Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices.
So, adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that government will have a lower take.
MADOWO: Africa's most advanced economy, South Africa is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. It is a net importer of fuel. This is
video from Thursday at gas stations. One South African Airline FlySafair announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet
fuel prices rose by 70 percent in one week at South African airports.
Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices. I also want to show you this video from gas
stations in Nigeria. It is Africa's most populous nation, one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it's likely to cash
in on the increase in global oil prices, alongside other countries in Africa that produce oil, such as Angola.
[11:40:00]
But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune from the shocks that the global markets are seeing. The bigger picture here is that
African economies are more fragile than stronger more advanced economies.
OWINO: These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there's a global conflict such as the one that it does,
it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much to have a slower path of recovery.
MADOWO: Fuel prices are holding steady right now, but if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African
continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers. Larry Madowo, CNN, Nairobi.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ASHER: For more on this, let's bring in Managing Director from EnergyInc Advisors, Rolake Akinkugbe-Filani. Rolake, always good to see you, my
friend. Let's just really talk about -- let's start with Nigeria, since we're both from there, and obviously you're in Lagos right now.
Nigeria has traditionally had this reputation of being the largest crude oil producer in Africa, but traditionally, especially in the past, it had
imported most of its refined fuel. So, there was always this imbalance that I think made a lot of people scratch their heads. Obviously, things are
changing now, with the Dangote refineries.
But just explain to us, for not just Nigeria, but African economies in general, this ongoing war in the Middle East, just how is it going to
especially with the Strait of Hormuz effectively close. How is that going to impact inflationary pressures, currency, standard of living, just higher
fuel costs, especially because for a lot of African countries, food and goods are transported mostly by road.
So, these are countries that are heavily fuel price dependent.
ROLAKE AKINKUGBE-FILANI, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF ENERGYINC ADVISORS: Yeah. Thanks. Good to be on the show, Zain. And interesting, I'm actually in New
York at an event talking about the energy transition in Africa, although I'm based in Lagos. So not too far away from you.
ASHER: Yeah.
AKINKUGBE-FILANI: But look, this story is really a double-edged story, and that complexity is what makes Africa's position so interesting. Nigeria
exports roughly, produces roughly 1.5 million barrels a day, and had based its medium-term fiscal framework on oil prices between 64 and $66 a barrel
through to 2028.
So, prices above $100 represent for Nigeria and many other African countries like Angola, Algeria, major producers. It's a fiscal upside on
paper, if you think back to the Ukraine crisis, 2022, Nigeria, at the time, was hemorrhaging money on petrol subsidies that consume much of that
windfall.
This time is different. It's also slightly different because the Dangote refinery does supply some of our domestic consumption, but the structural
vulnerabilities remain, Zain, and it remains not just for Nigeria, and this is where the human cost comes in. Africa, across board, is a net importer
of oil products.
It's heavily exposed to shocks, and when you have this situation, oil supplies tight and prices rise, while African currencies weaken as
investors generally move into safe haven assets like the dollar. And compared to other markets, where their alternative heating and transport
systems in Africa, most food and goods across the continent are transported by road, meaning rising falls costs feed quickly into broader inflation and
reduce household purchasing power.
So, there is the real risk. We saw this pattern some four years ago. Inflation on the continent was almost at 14 percent on average, and the
first time -- that was the first time since 2008 and so we're seeing that. But there's another dimension which is often not talked about.
It's that countries like Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal and now importing LNG. Qatar has declared a force measure, and the reason they
importing LNG is to power domestic electricity by importing gas, for gas to power. Now, much of that supply has now been squeezed for these countries
that have developed import infrastructure for importing gas.
But the flip side, it actually positions Africa's gas exporters as a potentially reliable and more secure supply of global gas and oil if we can
build the right structures here domestically. So, like I said, it's a double-edged sword for the exporters of crude oil, but also for the net
importers of oil products.
GOLODRYGA: Rolake, I have read you say in the past that Africa needs to redesign its own risk. How does that apply to a crisis like the one that we
are seeing with the war in Iran and the implications that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has on global oil prices?
AKINKUGBE-FILANI: Yeah, and I said it this is the one question about redesigning our own domestic and regional economies. I think it's the one
question that keeps African energy policy makers up at night. The honest answer is, for the net importing economies, they need to look at regional
integration within the African continent, countries like Kenya, like Senegal, like Ethiopia that allows them to leverage the refineries that are
being built around the continent.
[11:45:00]
The other important point is diversifying away from purely imported fossil fuels, like every price hike is a reminder of that structural
vulnerability. So, we do need to invest in distributed renewables, we do need to invest in grid expansion for producers like Nigeria, like Angola,
like Algeria.
The fiscal pressure of this moment means we need to redesign how we attract investment into upstream oil and gas investment to capitalize on the higher
oil prices. Many organizations like the African Energy Chamber and many governments have consistently argued that Africa's own oil and gas reserves
actually represent a legitimate pathway to development, and a crisis like this reinforces the argument domestically.
So, I think it's really about governments here plugging any domestic distortions and leakages in accelerating investment in infrastructure,
advancing intra African trade, building resilience and fiscal buffers, right? This is a really great time to build a fiscal buffer around a future
shock, because it will come.
It may not be from geopolitical risk. It may just be the structural, cyclical nature of the oil and gas sector, now is the time to really focus
on domestic infrastructure development and integration.
ASHER: Yeah, I mean energy security and diversification for African economies is so important. I mean especially because, yes, even though
technically, I guess oil producers across the continent might end up making more money the higher oil prices go.
The fact is, if you think about the typical African household, you know there are going to be massive problems ahead, especially if what the
Ayatollah, the new Ayatollah, is saying that this could last a while. The Strait of Hormuz could be closed for a long time. Oil prices, according to
him, could go up to an unthinkable amount, $200 a barrel.
You have to think about ordinary African households. How on earth they're going to cope with what that means for fuel products and the prices of fuel
products. Rolake Akinkugbe-Filani, thank you so much. Always good to see you.
AKINKUGBE-FILANI: Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: And you're just around the corner from us.
ASHER: Right.
GOLODRYGA: Stop by the Bureau next time. Thank you. All right, in just the last several minutes, we have seen multiple air strikes hit the Lebanese
capital. Here is another one that hit a building in Beirut. Now, earlier today Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the military to prepare
for expanded operations.
ASHER: It comes after Hezbollah launched a large barrage of rockets into Northern Israel. Lebanese officials say at least 800,000 people have been
displaced. Lebanon's Ministry of Information says that more than 680 people have been killed in the latest escalation of conflict.
All right around the Gulf region, Iranian drones and missiles have rained down, including on this residential building and the airport in Kuwait.
We'll take you live there, after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:50:00]
ASHER: All right, welcome back. Across the Gulf region, nations are intercepting new waves of Iranian drones and missiles.
GOLODRYGA: Dubai says a drone fell on a building in the luxury neighborhood of Creek Harbor, starting a fire there. And videos, geo located by CNN,
appear to show that exact attack. There you see that video. We're also getting reports of Iranian strikes targeting fuel tanks in Bahrain.
ASHER: Yeah, take a look at this video of what appears to be an Iranian Shahed drone hitting a fuel tank at Oman's Port of Salalah on Wednesday,
causing a fiery explosion. Iran calls the incident highly suspicious and says it is investigating.
GOLODRYGA: Meanwhile, Kuwait is also feeling Iran's wrath. Nic Robertson reports from a high-rise apartment building that now has a giant hole in
the middle of it.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yeah, just take a look at the apartment above me here, residential building that completely ripped
apart, blown out debris strewn on the ground around here, I can see a shoe over there, twisted metal over here, two people were injured here, two
civilians.
Kuwaiti government officials tell us were injured here. They've been taken away for treatment. There were multiple rounds of attempted attacks and
attacks on Kuwait overnight. The sirens going off defensive fighter jets put up in the air overnight. But I want to tell you something here that I
think gives our viewers a real clue to how much of a threat Iran is and how their attacks are working.
So, you see that impact behind me spin around here, and what are we looking at here. We're looking at the Persian Gulf. Iran is 50 miles behind me,
across the water there, so that drone flew in from there, straight into the building here, couple of 100 miles that way is the Strait of Hormuz, just
further north from here, closer to Iraq.
Two tankers, oil tankers hit by an explosive device last night, both set-on fire. So right in the northern end of the Persian Gulf here now you have
Iran attacking oil tankers here, a few 100 miles to the south, trying to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. They are putting this whole region into
sort of an economic choke hold.
The Iranians are turning the sea here, the water the Persian Gulf effectively into a war zone, not just the buildings around here. Kuwait as
well last night were just spin back so you can again see the damage here. But Kuwait last night, during those attacks, power lines came down, and the
attack that happened just a few hours ago in Kuwait targeting and hit Kuwait international airport structural damage.
We're told, no one injured, but that threat coming straight across from Iran, very close, very real.
GOLODRYGA: Our thanks to CNN's Nic Robertson for that report from Kuwait. And we'll be right back with more.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:55:00]
ASHER: Right. Finally, this hour, as many people flee Gulf countries amid the war, they have been forced to abandon their beloved pets.
GOLODRYGA: Animal Shelters say they have been overwhelmed, but this tale does have a happy ending. Kudos to our writers for that. An online
community created in the days after the attacks is stepping in to help matching pets with foster homes. This Dubai resident gave a new home to two
dogs.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNA JENTGEN, UAE RESIDENT: The fact that you're incapable of doing anything in the situation makes you kind of lost. So, by being able to
support just in the smallest way, by bringing in a pet in your house and taking care of that animal is I feel like it just gives some sort of
purpose in this whole situation that we have absolutely no control over.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: She says, Milo and Bruno are already settling into their new space - - happy stay at home --
GOLODRYGA: -- happy -- All right, do stay with us. We'll have more "One World" after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
