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One World with Zain Asher
Lebanon: Thousand Plus Killed, 1 Million Plus Displaced by Israeli Strikes; Trump: "Major Points" of Agreement Reached with Iran; White House: Deal to End DHS Shutdown Seems Acceptable; Dangote: "This Year will be very Tough for Everybody"; Aid Boat Arrives in Cuba with Critical Supplies Amid Power Crisis; Anxious Days for Members of Iranian Diaspora in the UK. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired March 24, 2026 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: Iran is disputing claims by President Trump that U.S. talks with Tehran are making progress. "One World" starts
right now. As questions well over discussions to end the war with Iran, we take a closer look at Lebanon and the civilians caught in the cross fire.
Plus, as the oil disruption in Middle East continues, export -- experts warn global shipping could reroute around South Africa. And the partial
U.S. government shutdown is causing hours long lines at some TSA checkpoints. Coming to you live from New York. I'm Zain Asher. You are
watching "One World".
An Iranian source tells CNN, there has been outreach to Iran from the United States, and Tehran is willing to listen to what they call
sustainable proposals to end the war, whatever the status of diplomacy, we're still seeing fresh attacks across the Middle East.
This was a scene earlier today in Tel Aviv. Several people reported wounded as at least four missiles hit the city. Israel says Iran launched seven
waves of missiles overnight. Israel continues to launch its own attacks on Iran and Lebanon.
One Israeli official says there is no immediate prospect of a deal to end the war with Iran, as for the battle with Hezbollah. Defense Minister
Israel Katz has been speaking about plans to occupy parts of southern Lebanon.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ISRAEL KATZ, ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER: Hundreds of thousands of residents of Southern Lebanon who evacuated northward will not return to the south of
the Litani River until security for Northern residents is ensured. All five bridges over the Litani that were used by Hezbollah to transfer operatives
and weapons have been destroyed.
And the IDF will control the remaining crossings and the security zone up the Litani. The principle is clear, where there is terrorism and missiles,
there will be no homes and no residents, and the IDF will remain present.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: Saudi Arabia's defense ministry says its defenses destroyed several drones overnight, this just days after intercepting an Iranian missile that
was fired at the oil port of Yanbu. Meantime, the price of Brent Crude has again climbed above $100 a barrel.
Let's go straight to our Nick Paton Walsh joining us live now from Beirut, Lebanon. I think the key here, Nick is really what the Israeli Defense
Minister, Israel Katz, has been saying, this idea that he intends for the IDF to essentially establish a security zone in Lebanon south of the Litani
River, until, in his words, Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, walk us through it Nick.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. I mean, look, this is part of an expanding narrative here of exactly what
Israel intends to do in Southern Lebanon. You can hear above me a drone that's been over Beirut now for a couple of hours.
And I should just point out we've been hearing in the last minutes about rocket debris from an interception landing on one of the outer skirts here,
intriguing because Lebanon is not known to have particularly high sophisticated interceptors. Neither is Hezbollah. So many questions will be
asked about exactly where this rocket came from and who intercepted it?
But it comes on a day of fast-moving events. Yes, Israel Katz, the Israeli Defense Minister, having said he will blow the bridges, or has blown most
of the bridges across the Litani River that lead to the part of Southern Lebanon that they have ultimately said they want everyone to leave from.
And will create some kind of security zone within. The rhetoric there being added to by Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who actually
suggested they might occupy everything up until the Litani River and make it part of Israel. So clearly, they're expanding strategy. They're becoming
more public.
And at the same time too, the remaining area for civilians in that southern part below the Litani River, the City of Tyre having been hit by strikes
earlier in this conflict, again hit by three strikes on its sort of outskirts area, leaving, I think, many civilians deeply concerned, no
casualties from those strikes.
And there was a warning ahead of some of them. But here, the drone you're hearing above me here, and the fact we had seven strikes in Dahiyeh here
overnight, giving a broader sense of the rising tension, and we saw what that means for civilians in recent days.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH (voice-over): Something familiarly awful is happening here. Israel said leave to the Town of Nabatieh two weeks ago. Now, life is ground out
of its streets. This extraordinary devastation just helps explain how the south is being emptied.
[11:05:00]
Ultimately a strategic part of the Israeli campaign here, and those blasts distant even higher up. Still, no calm. They deal with the constant noise
of jets around them here, but also just overnight intensification of air strikes. And because they're up on the hill here, they feel and see
everything, and of course, the injured from it come into here as well.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: On strike we hear here.
WALSH: Everything.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everything we hear everything. Like yesterday was horrible. Yesterday, many, too many strikes.
WALSH (voice-over): There are fewer people below, so fewer patients than at the start.
DR. HASSAN WAZNI, GENERAL DIRECTOR, NABATIEH GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL: Once we've got nine children's together have been injured. Three of them died,
and the rest lost their families. 18 people martyred in that strike, all civilians.
WALSH (voice-over): The burns unit treating a rescue worker who ran headlong into the carnage.
AHMED AWADA, RESCUE WORKER: We moved towards it, the missile hadn't exploded yet. But the building was full more than 30 or 40 people. We
started evacuating them, and so on. Eventually the missile went off.
WALSH (voice-over): A doctors' families have moved in as it's safer here. To the south, near Tyre, where we also filmed, with Hezbollah's permission,
life too is being squeezed out. Sunday, Israel warned twice it would blow up all the bridges to the south, sparking panic.
WALSH: Which one would they hit first? Shouting warning about the jets which we've been hearing over the last half hour. Now this one particularly
though.
WALSH (voice-over): This, the force used. They would hit it twice again later, yet more isolated now in Tyre is the entire village of Majdal Zoun,
who we met earlier and fled their homes to this school.
YOUSSEF SHUHEIMI, MAYOR OF MAJDAL ZOUN: 50 families, 51 families. About 240 persons.
WALSH (voice-over): Five of the men dead, two girls here without fathers, who sleep with their grandmothers here, but are still girls.
SHUHEIMI: I want to tell you a secret --
WALSH (voice-over): Although Zaynab (ph) keeps pushing Yasmin's arm away still. A million are forced from their homes in Lebanon and into anger,
imagination, where these girls hide from horror, even in the mud. Muhammad is 16 and worldly.
WALSH: What do you think of Trump?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not good.
WALSH: Not good.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's so bad.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Very much bad. I hate him. He is sober. And we know that about the Epstein --
WALSH: The Epstein files?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah.
WALSH (voice-over): But no calm here either.
WALSH: So, they say the four days ago, they got what, well, must have been a fake warning, a telephone call to the people here to get out as quickly
as possible. So, they say they ran out down here as fast as they could and hid down on the beach for five hours until the threat has passed.
WALSH (voice-over): The city's old ruins sit silent and powerless as it keeps getting new ones.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ASHER: That was our Nick Paton Walsh reporting there. All right, as we mentioned earlier, CNN has learned from an Iranian source that Washington
has reached out to Tehran in recent days and that Iran is willing to listen. It's the closes we've been able to get to any kind of confirmation
of kind of whisper of diplomacy between the two sides.
And in his new analysis piece for CNN digital platforms, our Stephen Collinson says it may not be able -- may not be possible, rather, for
President Trump to actually end this war on his timeline. While Iran may be outgunned, it has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and holds the
global economy hostage.
[11:10:00]
Stephen joins us, live now from Washington. I mean, Stephen, I think that you know you're right in that the president is learning a very different
lesson compared to what we saw with tariffs last year. Last year, when it came to the global trade war, the U.S. really did have all the power.
I mean, even in Venezuela, you could argue that the U.S. had pretty much all the power as well. With Iran, it's very, very different, and that's
because of Iran's ability to fight this war asymmetrically. As you point out, through the Strait of Hormuz.
We've seen President Trump being very kind of erratic in terms of his negotiation style. One minute saying that he's de-escalating. The next
minute talking about a 48-hour deadline. The next minute saying, well, I'm not going to bomb the power plants in Iran. Just walk us through how an
exit strategy might come to pass here?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah, we've reached the point that we often seem to in modern American conflicts, where an
adversary uses the power imbalance they have with the United States almost as an advantage.
You know, in the initial shock and awe phases of the war, American power throws all before it, but then you get to a point where the targets start
running out. The enemy is still resisting and surviving, and that's when presidents face very difficult choices about whether to escalate even more
to try and get out of the conflict.
The problem, I think, from the U.S. point of view here, and it looks like the president does want to get out of this conflict. As you said, the U.S.
was reaching out to Iran is, how does he get out the conflict and still say that the United States won?
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and if Iran retains the stocks of highly enriched uranium, which would allow it to at some point resuscitate
his attempt that the West says is to try to get a nuclear weapon. Those are Iran's bargaining chips, and there's no sign yet, at least while the regime
in Tehran survives. That it's willing to give up those bargaining chip.
In fact -- the would think, from their point of view, is that those are the things that will never give up, because that's what's ensured the regime's
survival. So, I think this is a very difficult point for the president. It's uncharted territory, and he's going to face some real decisions,
whether, in order to get out of this war and to create an exit strategy, which does not yet seem to be obvious.
Does he send in ground troops to try and open up the Strait of Hormuz, or to seize Hog Island, the Iranian epicenter -- buckle the economy? Those are
pretty bad options politically and strategically, even if the United States eventually has the power to do
It.
ASHER: Yeah, especially because European allies are unwilling to assist militarily in keeping open the Strait of Hormuz, and also this idea of, you
know, the president sort of threatening to bomb power plants. It's very tricky because it's the civilians Iran that the U.S. administration has
claimed that it wants to help.
So it's limited in how much power or how much damage it can inflict on ordinary Iranian citizens? But just in terms to your point of what the
Iranians are going to agree to in any kind of deal here. I mean, the nuclear weapon thing appears to be off the table, because, if anything,
Iran is going to be that much more motivated to keep their hands on a nuclear weapon, given what the U.S. administration has done.
And just in terms of regime change, that's also going to be a non-starter as well. So how can the two sides meet in the middle here?
COLLINSON: It's very difficult. I think you know, from the U.S. point of view, it may not be possible to meet in the middle. The president has said
that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. The Strait of Hormuz will open. How does he back down from those positions, politically in a domestic sense
and internationally, and still keep his credibility intact?
Trump has always been very good at moving the goal post creating a new reality. He in his personal life and his business life, he's always been
able to defer the worst consequences of his actions, in most cases.
In a war which gathers its own momentum when the enemy has a say in how things turn out, that is very difficult. Even if, say, we get an agreement,
a cease fire agreement between the United States and Iran, months of American power presence in the region to make sure the Strait of Hormuz
does stay open, because Iran has now learned that it can hold the world economy to hostage.
This is not just something that the Americans leave the region, and everything goes back to how it is and how it was? Look at the Gulf States.
They've found themselves deeply -- drones. How do they go forward in a new relationship with Iran?
[11:15:00]
What does that regime look like? The president has really created a labyrinth of problems for himself and the region, and his normal tactic of
threats, rhetoric, moving forward, stepping back, that doesn't seem to be a way that will navigate him to an exit strategy here.
So, it's very difficult to see how this ends soon, and how it ends in a way that restores the stability, such as it was that was in the Straits of
Hormuz and the Gulf before that. You know, the Israelis might be reconciled to a period of perpetual warfare. I don't think the Americans are and I
don't think it's sustainable politically in the United States.
ASHER: Yeah. And it's becoming all the more apparent that perhaps this administration didn't really plan out the day after taking out the
Ayatollah. I mean, obviously the Ayatollah and a bunch of sorts of senior Iranian officials were in the same room. The Israelis and the Americans saw
that as a moment opportunity.
But then what next? And we're seeing the results of potentially that lack of planning play out right now. Stephen Collinson, live for us there. Thank
you so much. Gas prices in the U.S. have risen for the 24th day in a row, the national average is almost $4 a gallon. Those strikes between Iran and
Israel are diminishing hopes that an end to the war may be imminent.
Oil prices are back above. There we have it, just slightly over $100 a barrel after falling sharply the previous session. Brent Crude, that's the
global oil benchmark, is now at about, let's see $102 a barrel. WTI, rather, this is the U.S. benchmark is slightly lower at $91 a barrel.
CNN Business & Economics Reporter Anna Cooban joins us live now. I mean, every day it's really a different story. Yesterday, we were on air talking
about how it had fallen slightly below $100 a barrel because of these reports that perhaps there was some kind of opening in terms of any kind of
negotiation between the Americans and the Iranians.
Now there's some skepticism on that front. So, oil prices are rising again. I mean, this is -- this is the game we're in now, just this idea of
volatility, unpredictability, and oil prices might be in triple digits or hovering around triple digits for the foreseeable future, Anna?
ANNA COOBAN, CNN BUSINESS & ECONOMICS REPORTER: Yes Zain. I mean volatility really is the watch word here, and you described it perfectly. What
happened yesterday? Brent, the global benchmark was up around $114 a barrel. We're now down to just over $100 a barrel.
But really Zain that the material reality of the situation hasn't changed. There is still a trickle of ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. And I
was speaking to shipping analysts and oil experts yesterday, and they were saying that even if the war is to end today or tomorrow, there's still this
long lag time for things to normalize.
Not to mention the infrastructure that's been attacked, the Ras Laffan LNG facility that Qatar Energy says would take up to five years to repair the
oil production that's been taken offline. You can't just switch that back on like a light switch.
And then the mines in the Strait of Hormuz, I was speaking to someone yesterday, a shipping analyst, saying to me that it would take at least two
weeks for there to be a real excavation of this area to make sure, with 100 percent certainty, that no shipping company is sending their ships through
in a way that is vulnerable to being attacked by a mine.
And then also, you've got the backlog of ships in the Persian Gulf they cannot exit, around 2000 ships. And then also ships that are backlogged at
ports in India and Sri Lanka that were destined for the Middle East but now really have nowhere to go. So, despite the kind of promise that we saw
yesterday, that this conflict was nearing its end.
And obviously doubts after that about the veracity of that we are still materially in the same situation Zain.
ASHER: Anna Cooban, live for us there. Thank you so much. All right, it may have sounded like a good idea, but sending I.C.E. agents to more than a
dozen American airports doesn't seem to have helped security wait times much at all. Up next, a live report on the delays.
Plus, a White House official tells us that a deal may be in sight to end the long lines at U.S. airports and reopen department of homeland security
details ahead on that front too.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:20:00]
ASHER: A White House official tells CNN a deal is coming together that looks like it could end the Department of Homeland Security shut down.
Earlier Democrats said there was a framework for a deal, but a Republican Senator said that President Trump killed
It.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KENNEDY (R-LA): The Democrats have offered to open up everything but I.C.E. Ted and I said, OK, let's accept their offer, and then at the
same time, we would offer a bill for reconciliation where we don't need any democratic votes to do whatever we wanted to do with I.C.E., and that way
we're out of the shutdown and DHS is back open. We submitted that. Senator Thune submitted that to President Trump, as is his right. He said, no, no
deals with the Democrats.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: All right. CNN's Kevin Liptak joins us live now from Washington. So mixed messages here. Just walk us through what we know for sure. How close
might we be to a potential deal Kevin?
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, when you listen to the Republicans who are tasked with negotiating it, they do seem relatively
confident that, after coming here to the White House last night and after speaking with President Trump, that they may have found a pathway through.
Now, the deal that is emerging would essentially fund the entirety of DHS, including very critically, TSA, but leave out funding for I.C.E. and for
immigration enforcement, and essentially put that to the side and leave it for a future date down the road.
This is something that they believe that Democrats can get behind, and even though Democrats haven't said officially that they'll support it. You did
hear from a number of Senators in that party last night who said that this looks like, at least on the surface, it could be a viable deal.
And remember, Democrats have been pushing all sorts of reforms to I.C.E. to CBP, this would stop well short of including all of those but it does seem
like the best way forward to them at this point. There are still some hurdles ahead, including in the House, obviously, the very narrow
Republican majority there doesn't make passing anything particularly easy.
And President Trump, as Senator Kennedy, was saying there had already rejected a version of this plan on Sunday evening. And in fact, he spent
most of the day yesterday, as he was out in the country, warning Republicans not to agree to any deal that doesn't also include his voter ID
law, the SAVE AMERICA Act.
He has suggested tying these things together, and was very resistant to doing anything that didn't include that. But it did seem as if, after that
meeting last night here at the White House, that the president could be on board a White House official saying that, yes, the conversations are still
going on, but the deal at least, and for now appears acceptable.
Of course, President Trump's word sort of abides above anything we haven't heard from him directly, but the plan at least now seems to be to pass the
voter ID measures as part of that additional funding down the road.
Now, of course, in all of this, a deadline always helps. Senators are looking to get out of town on Friday for a two-week long holiday recess.
Many of them also likely looking to avoid those hellish TSA lines as they're getting out of town, so that may have been a part of this.
[11:25:00]
But you know, it's not entirely clear that the mess that we're seeing at all of these airports is going to be entirely resolved once this funding
goes through. You know, 400 TSA agents have already resigned, so it doesn't seem clear that that's all going to be cleared up as soon as the president
puts his signature on this funding measure. But at least for now, it does seem like there is a pathway through all of this that did not exist before
Zain.
ASHER: All right, that's good news for obviously, travelers at the airports. Kevin Liptak, live for us that. Thank you so much. Speaking of
travelers at some American airports, they're still having to wait for hours in the meantime to get through security.
It is one of the busiest in the world. This is Houston, Texas. I.C.E. agents are now on duty at 14 airports. President Trump's Border Czar say
that they are there to allow TSA officers to focus on security screening.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TOM HOMAN, U.S. BORDER CZAR: We got 14 right now, and there will be more. Their number one mission there, as the president said, has helped TSA with
security help move the flow of people through those lines.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: Hundreds of TSA agents have quit. Kevin Liptak was just talking about and many are calling out sick because they're not being paid. But
partial government shutdown, caused by a fight in Congress over Homeland Security is, of course, the reason why CNN's Ed Lavandera joins us live now
from George Bush Airport in Houston.
Just walk us through what the situation? I mean, the situation yesterday, when we came to you, was pretty dire. Four hours, people were having to
wait. Please, tell me it's better, Ed.
ED LAVANDERA, CNN SENIOR U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I cannot tell you that it's better. In fact, I think where we were talking yesterday, you
guys had seen this sign that had the wait time about, I think it was like 240 or 250 minutes. Well, those wait times, they've actually gotten rid of
that.
They're not even showing that number here on this board anymore. Just a message about the travel alert. But right now, the wait times about 250, 70
minutes, depending on which terminal you're in. We are in terminal E. And again, that's more than four hours of wait. This is nearing the end.
From here you got about another 45 minutes to an hour left in the line. But once again, you're seeing the lines winding their way through the lobby
area of the check in area of this terminal. It actually goes outside and winds away down there, and then it goes down an escalator to another level.
And then it goes down another series of escalators to a subway level, which is at subterranean level. So that's where the line starts. I mean, it is
dismaying at times to kind of grasp just how long this line is. But by and large, the people we're talking to really taking all of this in stride.
I mean, a lot of frustration and anger at politicians and that sort of thing. But trying to get through this, a lot of people making friends and
kind of navigating this process as best as they can. In fact, that's what we hear over and over again. Like, you know, what are we going to do as we
stand here in these lines? I'll try to talk to a couple folks.
General Sir, do you mind if I ask you how long you've been in line?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three and a half.
LAVANDERA: Three and a half. How are you coping with that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What can we do? TSA is not getting paid, so yeah.
LAVANDERA: Are you frustrated? Angry?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My flight is at six o'clock tonight.
LAVANDERA: Six o'clock tonight?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah.
LAVANDERA: You got -- you came here that early?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah.
LAVANDERA: You were messing around.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Got places to be?
LAVANDERA: Where you headed?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trinidad.
LAVANDERA: Trinidad. All right, so you were -- you were not going to miss this flight.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I missed it yesterday.
LAVANDERA: You are back again?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah.
LAVANDERA: All right, hang in there. Yeah, that's, that's amazing. Like, missed a flight yesterday, got here. I'm trying to calculate, he's been in
line, I think he said, what, three and a half hours. I mean, he's literally here almost 12 hours at least before his flight. It's, you know, just
staggering what people are trying to do just to manage their way through this airport here right now, Zain.
ASHER: Yeah. I mean, he learned his lesson right from yesterday. He decided he wasn't going to take any chances. But the fact is that he had been
waiting in line for three and a half hours, and I don't see the end of that line in sight. So, he's got -- he's got some time to go still. It's not
like he's done three and a half hours and he's right at the finish line.
LAVANDERA: Yeah, he's got about 45 minutes left. So, you know, he looked tired poor guy.
ASHER: And bored.
LAVANDERA: Boy looked a little tired.
ASHER: And bored. I'm sure he's got, still a long time to wait at the airport until the end of the day. All right. Ed Lavandera, thank you so
much. The world economy is being held hostage after major shipping routes and supply chains are disrupted by Israel and the U.S. war with Iran,
you'll hear what experts say will likely happen next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:30:00]
ASHER: All right. Welcome back to "One World". I'm Zain Asher in New York. Here are some of the headlines we are watching for you today. An Iranian
source tells CNN there has been outreach to Tehran from the United States. The source adds that Tehran is willing to listen to what they call
sustainable proposals to end the war.
Meantime, fresh fighting in the Middle East is diminishing hopes of a quick resolution and raising oil prices to more than $100 a barrel. The Israeli
military continues to build up its forces on the border with Lebanon. Defense Minister Israel Katz says the idea will deploy full force against
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has issued evacuation orders to a million people in Southern Lebanon, saying they shouldn't expect to return home
anytime soon.
Sending I.C.E. agents to some American airports doesn't seem to have eased the massive wait times at security checkpoints. Travelers at Houston's
George Bush Airport report waiting hours to get through security today, hundreds of TSA agents have quit. Many are calling out sick. They're not
getting paid because of a partial government shutdown.
And investigators are back on the scene of Sunday's collision between an Air Canada plane and an emergency vehicle. Government records show pilots
raised concerns about air traffic control missteps and other hazards at LaGuardia Airport, long before Sunday's deadly crash.
Shipping companies could bypass the Middle East altogether and opt for a safer but much longer route as security concerns mount in the region. The
Strait of Hormuz is likely off the schedule for the remainder of the year with vessels lightly steering clear of major choke points. That's according
to the chief analyst data firm Sonata.
Full rerouting of global networks may actually go around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope instead of going through the Suez Canal. CNN spoke to
Africa's Dangote Group about how these very expensive shipping disruptions could play out?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALIKO DANGOTE, FOUNDER, DANGOTE GROUP: If we stop now, most likely you might see oil down to about, you know, maybe about $80. But going now to
look for oil where it was, you know, two months ago, up to about $67 it will take a very long time.
[11:35:00]
Because, you know, you have, we have already disrupted the supply line. The supply the supply chain, being disrupted, it means that it's going to take
time before you fix things. So really, this year is going to be a year that will be very tough for everybody.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: All right, joining us live now is the Director for the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, Rosemary Kelanic. She is also Author of the
book "Black Gold and Black Male Oil and Great Power Politics". So, this idea that global shipping could reroute all the way around South Africa
instead of passing through parts of the Middle East.
I mean, how sustainable is that, and obviously that is a much longer route, far more expensive. Is that really sustainable in the long term?
ROSEMARY KELANIC, DIRECTOR, MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM, DEFENSE PRIORITIES: It is sustainable if you're talking about avoiding the Red Sea. It doesn't solve
the Hormuz problem, necessarily, but we did see the market adapt in that manner when the Houthis were targeting red sea shipping.
And the year that that happened, 2024 profits for maritime shipping actually went up. They actually made more money on the route, because it
doesn't add that much in terms of insurance and fuel costs compared to the value of the cargo that they're transporting. So that is sustainable.
ASHER: And so, you mentioned that obviously it doesn't solve the Strait of Hormuz issue. So that still remains a key issue. And if you have a
situation where, yes, if you know the Red Sea isn't being used, and instead the Cape of Good Hope is being used, but still, at the same time, given
that 20 percent of the world's oil supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz, that still will cause oil prices to remain elevated for the time
being.
KELANIC: That's right, it will. Although we have seen some adaptation already. So Saudi Arabia is now rerouting about 5 million barrels a day
additional from Hormuz to the Red Sea. So, if that continues, you go from losing, you know, 20 million barrels a day through the Hormuz to down to 15
million barrels a day.
We've also seen some tankers pass through Hormuz if they've paid what appears to be a toll to Iran for doing so. We're also seeing Iranian
tankers and Chinese tankers making their way through at much lower rates than before this crisis started. So, we've seen some adaptation, but likely
prices are going to remain high until this this conflict is solved.
ASHER: And so, what does this say about just the fragility of depending on one or two major choke points to get the bulk of the world's oil supply to
where it needs to go?
KELANIC: Yeah. I mean, it is an issue, and it's an issue that is partially geography and partially the market. So, on the one hand, the cheapest way
to send oil places is overseas, like you know, through shipping, sending it through Hormuz made a lot of sense for many years, because Iran did not
close the strait.
And the United States, of course, also promised to keep oil flowing from the Persian Gulf, using U.S. military power, hoping mostly that that would
deter Iran from trying to close the strait. Now we know it's sort of backfired, because we've started this war that led to the state -- the
strait's closure.
So, if companies understand now going forward, that the strait is much less secure than it was in the past. You might see more attempts to find
alternative routes, pipelines that go to the Red Sea, pipelines that go to the Mediterranean. You could even imagine building rail lines and other
means of transporting oil so that could happen in subsequent years. But it takes a long lead time to build those, those infrastructures.
ASHER: Just in terms of, you know, obviously we've had mixed messages coming out of the White House about whether or not we could see some kind
of exit ramp, what the status of negotiations is at this point in time?
If this war does continue to drag on for, let's say, several months at this point, which countries really do stand to suffer, especially in Asia? We
know that China is somewhat shielded, well prepared for this, but other countries in Asia, beyond China, stand to lose significantly.
KELANIC: Yeah. So, the countries that are going to hurt the most from this are the ones that have the most oil intensive economies, the ones that
consume the most oil to produce their GDP. China and Japan are both less oil intensive than the United States is. Europe is also less oil intensive.
But developing countries in Asia, India, for instance, but also smaller countries like Thailand, Indonesia, et cetera, you know, they're more oil
intensive, and they could be hurt more from this. In general, developing countries will be hurt more from this than you know, Western countries that
depend less on oil.
ASHER: All right. Rosemary Kelanic, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it. All right, some desperately needed aid arrives in Cuba as
the island nation grapples with a collapsing power grid and threats from the U.S. President, we'll have a live update for you from Havana.
[11:40:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ASHER: This was the scene in Havana this morning as a boat arrived from Mexico carrying desperately needed aid, the food, medical supplies and
solar panels came in at a critical moment. The power grid collapsed twice last week under the U.S. oil blockade. As Cuba struggles to restore
electricity, President Trump ramps up threats against the island nation.
CNN's Patrick Oppmann joins us live now from Havana. So obviously, any kind of aid that they get from Mexico or elsewhere is great news, but still not
necessarily enough, especially when you consider the larger context of the oil that they need from Venezuela coming to a halt.
PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. No oil of course, this boat is bringing food and medical equipment and solar panels, all very important
items, but it really is oil that this island is absolutely starved for at this point, because you just don't see many cars on the road.
As you mentioned, power is off more often than it is on. At this point, we had two complete blackouts last weekend where the electrical grid just
failed. That's never happened before in such a short amount of time. So, things are very dire here for the Cuban government to have activists coming
here that previously had sent aid to Gaza is a welcome effort.
They were criticized for giving aid directly to the government here for being used, their critics, said, for propaganda purposes. But these are
activists that are clearly in league with the human government, support the Cuban government, and have criticized what the U.S. is doing here.
For regular Cubans are just trying to survive this latest crisis the worst of their lives. You know, they're really caught between two immovable
objects. On one side, you have the United States, the Trump Administration saying that Cuba needs to announce a deal, agree to a deal, a radical deal
that would change their government and economy, or else.
And on the other side, you have the Cuban government saying that they are preparing for war, that they think that it's possible that they could be
invaded, as Venezuela and Iran faced U.S. attacks, suffered under U.S. attacks. So that is really a scenario here that is quite serious. And while
this aid is welcome. It is not going to resolve most of what Cubans are facing on a daily basis.
[11:45:00]
ASHER: Yeah. And Patrick, just to touch on something you just sort of referred to there on March 17th, so literally, a week ago, Secretary of
State Marco Rubio said Cuba has an economy that doesn't work and a political and governmental system that cannot fix it, so they have to
change dramatically. They've got some big decisions to make over there.
As you point out, Cuba, on the other hand, is preparing for some kind of military intervention. They've obviously seen what happened in Venezuela
and what happened in Iran. Obviously, that doesn't bode well for Cuba.
But just explain from the Cuban perspective, what do they believe the United States is looking for from Cuba at this point in time? How can they
negotiate with the Americans preventing what we saw in Venezuela and Iran?
OPPMANN: There are really stuck between a rock and a hard place, and what the U.S. is calling for would essentially mean the end of the Cuban
Revolution as we know it. Of course, critics of this government say it ended many years ago, and it's all about keeping a small group of people in
power here.
But when you hear the U.S. President say that it will be up to him to decide what's Cuba's fate, that his government will decide who's Cuba's
President and how the economy works here, that has a lot of ramifications, of course, for Cuba, for Cubans.
And they remember the history here that before the Fidel Castro's revolution, it essentially was the U.S. that called the shots here. The
fact remains, though, this economy is so weak because it was so dependent on foreign oil, on these kinds of deals where they would send doctors to
Venezuela in exchange for thousands of barrels, hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil.
And the fact this island doesn't produce its own food, it doesn't really produce much of anything, and that has made them susceptible to this
pressure campaign. And so, of course, two things can be true at the same time. The embargo has a major impact, but it's also been this government's
missteps going back decades.
The fact that they still hold on to kind of the communist ideology, centralized control of an economy that is essentially set them up for what
Donald Trump says a takeover, and it's really up to the Cuban government. He says, how that takeover goes down, whether it's a friendly takeover or
something else. But Cubans are certainly feeling the crunch at this point.
ASHER: Of course, they are. All right, Patrick Oppmann live for us there. Thank you so much. We'll have much more on this developing story next hour
with a Senior Fellow from Latin America. All right, around the world, Iranians pray for peace in their homeland. After the break, you hear voices
from Britain's Iranian community with their thoughts on what is happening back home.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:50:00]
ASHER: All right, London is thousands of kilometers from Tehran, but the anxiety for Iranians in the UK is certainly no less real. Many have
memories of Iran's revolution in 1979 and a battle for change that's ebbed and flowed since then. Our Jomana Karadsheh spoke with Iranians in London
about their feelings right now and what future they see for their homeland.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Thousands of faces adorn this wall turn Memorial. These are the victims of the Iranian regime who
paid the ultimate price for rising up against tyranny. For many Iranians in the UK diaspora, it has become the place to mourn and remember those who
have fallen in the fight for freedom.
And they've chosen to gather here for the start of Nowruz, the Persian New Year. For this family, it's personal. A young relative was shot and killed
during the brutal crackdown on protests in January. Mustafa's photo is the closest thing they've got to visiting his grave.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We just hope that this is the last time we experience such thing, and hopefully what they have done, their blood, it's going to
be used for good things. I still believe that the revolution has happened already. They have done it.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): Nowruz is a time of celebrating life starting again. For this crowd, hope springs eternal, even at this time of war and
uncertainty.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The second I look back on that wall with all of those brave people, I cannot stop myself from crying, but then again, look at my
child, and I see someone who doesn't know the pain behind and is going to grow in a country that is free.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): Most here are monarchists, supporters of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last Shah.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bring our King to our country.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): And like him, they believe America and Israel's war in Iran is the only way to overthrow the theocratic regime. Their gratitude
for those who launched that war on full display. Nearby in this part of North London, known as Little Tehran, because of its large Iranian
community, more signs of support for Pahlavi and the war.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trump and Netanyahu basically did the most noble thing in their whole political life.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): Everyone tells us it is hard to celebrate this year knowing loved ones and innocent Iranians are under bombardment that initial
euphoria that came with the killing of Former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for some quickly faded as the war got uglier and deadlier.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And those are the mixed feelings that every day we need to deal with it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, the monster is dead, but in the same time, my neighbor is getting attacked.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): In every corner, hints of nostalgia for the Iran that once was but that even here brings intimidation and threats. The CCTV
video shop owners shared with us captures one of a series of vandalism incidents they say targeted local businesses.
KARADSHEH: And this is what they were targeting, the flag of Iran before the Islamic Revolution that has very much become a symbol for the hope that
so many have that regime change in Iran is near. They use paint balls, and you can still see the red paint splattered on the pavement here.
You also see it outside some of the stores in the area. And speaking to shopkeepers, they say that they had gotten threats before this happened
from individuals here in the UK who they believe are regime supporters, warning them to take down the flags.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): While filming outside this shop, people came up to us to tell us they fear what may happen if the war stops and the regime
survives.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This regime, no one wants them, and then, except Donald Trump, no one can change them.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is why he says that.
KARADSHEH (voice-over): Not everyone in the diaspora would agree with that and a foreign intervention with aims that seem to grow murkier by the day.
They're united in the hope that this war will soon end, as will the repressive regime. Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ASHER: And CNN has reached out to the Metropolitan Police for comment on the vandalism incidents in London. All right, stay with CNN. I'll have much
more "One World" after the short break.
[11:55:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
