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Quest Means Business
President Trump and Russian Foreign Minister Meet at White House; Death Toll Stands at Six in New Zealand Volcano Eruption; Search for Missing Chilean Plane will Continue for Six Days. Aired 3-4p ET
Aired December 10, 2019 - 15:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[15:00:04]
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS: One hour to trade on Wall Street and the markets are fascinating because they're not
responding. Not in a huge way.
Look at the way the day has got up and down, up and down and we're just eking out a very small gain, barely a point. It's a similar story across
the other major indices in New York.
Well, these are the markets and the extraordinary thing, these are the reasons why and they're not responding.
A very bittersweet day for Donald Trump as Democrats unveil Articles of Impeachment against him.
At the same time, House lawmakers hand Trump a major victory with his USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico.
At the same time in France, nationwide protests have left the country's economy paralyzed for the sixth straight day.
Tonight, we all live in London, on Tuesday, December the 10th. I am Richard Quest, and of course, in the British capital, I mean business.
Good evening. We went through all the events and it's extraordinary that the markets aren't responding.
But today House Democrats did set in motion the impeachment of President Trump, and even as they trumpet his North America pact, the USMCA.
The signing of the New Deal only a few moments ago in Mexico City -- there you see it -- is a key milestone. It is a triumph for him and his economic
agenda.
It was sullied and spoiled because the same day or at least the moment went sour for him that the House unveiled two Articles of Impeachment relating
to as we know, the President's dealings with Ukraine.
The House Judiciary Chairman, Jerry Nadler says it's a decision they did not take lightly.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. JERROLD NADLER (D-NY): A President who declares himself above accountability, above the American people, and above Congress's power of
impeachment, which is meant to protect against threats to our democratic institutions, is a President who sees himself as above the law.
We must be clear, no one, not even the President is above the law.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Phil Mattingly is with me from Capitol Hill. When I say it was inevitable that we would get to this stage, I don't mean to diminish the
significance of that. But this is now on a track, isn't it?
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. There's no question about it. And I think inevitable is the right word to describe
really what we've seen, Richard, over the course of the last six or eight weeks.
Obviously, it took a while for Democrats to get to this point, but once they really launched into the investigation as to whether the President
withheld U.S. security assistance to Ukraine in exchange for investigations into political rivals, it was pretty clear they were coming to this point
and now it's really starting to move.
We saw the two Articles of Impeachment released today; one for abuse of power, one for obstruction of Congress. The committee will start
considering those Articles of Impeachment, likely on Wednesday night and into Thursday.
But, Richard, the bottom line for all of this right now is there's no more hedging. There's no more maybe we will, maybe we won't. The House will
vote to impeach President Trump next week before they leave town for the holidays. That's all but locked in at this point.
QUEST: All right. And since the moment impeachment was mentioned, the sentence that you just said, the House will vote to impeach next week, is
invariably followed by and he will probably not be removed by the Senate before Easter.
MATTINGLY: Yes, that's the natural code to it. I don't think there's any question about it.
Look, when you look at the United States Senate, it's controlled by Republicans: 53 to 47. It takes two-thirds of the United States Senate to
actually vote to remove the President.
So in other words, every Democrat and 20 Republican senators would all have to agree to remove President Trump from office.
Here's how many Republicans have even opened the door to possibly doing that at this point. Zero. Zero Republicans.
QUEST: Right.
MATTINGLY: So nobody expects him to be removed, but a trial is definitely the next step and it will happen.
QUEST: So now tell me, how much does he wear this? In the election campaign, what should be a black mark and a sullying rallying he wears as a
badge of pride, I was impeached. I am the impeached President standing up for you. Vote for me anyway.
MATTINGLY: I think you're going to hear it. He has got a campaign rally tonight. You'll hear him talking about it. You've seen his campaign raise
tens of millions of dollars on this issue specifically. It is kind of upside down world of what you would expect a President to operate like
knowing that this is going to be tagged to their legacy, knowing that this is going to be tagged to their reelection process.
But the fact of the matter is, and I go back to what's happening in the Senate or what's about to happen in the House, Republicans are standing
together, not a single Republican at this point in time is about to break, and that's as indicative of where the base of the Republican Party is in
the United States as anything else.
[15:05:12]
MATTINGLY: They support the President. They rally around him on this issue. Specifically, you're going to hear him talk about this, repeatedly
talk about how he is attacked, talk about how this was a sham process the Democrats were cooking up to remove him and try and keep him from being
reelected.
This, I think, the President thinks is maybe an upside for him as he moves into that reelection campaign.
QUEST: Phil, we will talk more about it. Thank you, sir, for doing duty in Congress for us tonight. Now, even by Washington standards, a dizzying
day.
The Articles of Impeachment started in Congress. They'll hit home. This of course is Washington -- start in Congress, hits home at the White House.
Donald Trump once said the stock market would crash if Democrats ever tried to impeach him. Now the President is fighting a political -- the fight of
his life and only 11 months before the next election.
On Capitol Hill though, back across Pennsylvania Avenue, there were -- even after announcing impeachment, proving that you can still get work done,
Democrats unveiled a breakthrough for the new trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico following months of negotiations, modernizing the trade
in North America.
And in the Treasury, there are reports that the next round of tariffs could be delayed. They are due to hit in five days' time. We'll discuss China
tariffs in a moment.
Let's stick though more importantly with USMCA for a second. Matt Rivers is in Mexico City.
Matt, the significance here, Matt, is that they have managed to -- that they've already signed the deal. They've actually signed the USMCA that
was renegotiated, so this now just has to be ratified. But since -- I mean, since the Dems in Congress have approved, then already, that will
happen.
MATT RIVERS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I mean, they're saying, it's going to happen. We saw the signing ceremony, Richard, happen just
within the last half an hour or so. The U.S. Trade Representative joined by several of his counterparts from Canada and Mexico here in Mexico City.
It's the second time we have seen a USMCA signed. The first time coming, of course, a little over a year ago, but Democrats held up ratification of
that trade agreement because they said it wasn't good enough. They said they needed more protections for workers, they wanted inspections down here
in Mexican factories, they wanted to make sure there were certain provisions in there in terms of salaries, in terms of minimum wage for
workers, environmental protections -- the list goes on.
And yet, here we are. This was a year-long negotiation between Democrats and the White House, between the U.S. Trade Representative and the Chairman
of the House Ways and Means Committee. Both men said it got heated at times, but they eventually figured it out and where that leaves us now is
just kind of a formal process.
We could see a vote in the House of Representatives as early as next week, potentially December 19th. Here in Mexico, they're expected to ratify it.
In Canada, that's going to be the same thing, and it leaves us, Richard, in this kind of weird place. We're talking about a bipartisan agreement.
When was the last time you heard Democrats say, yes, we are really happy with this. And Republicans say, we're happy with this, too. It's kind of
bizarre. It doesn't happen in Washington very often anymore. But yes, both sides are going to tout this as a win.
QUEST: So there are two aspects to it. First of all, there's the difference between the old NAFTA and USMCA; and then you've got the
improvements, so they say, that the Democrats claim they made to the original negotiated Treaty of USMCA. How different is this final version?
RIVERS: What you have Republicans and Democrats are both saying, now, Republicans would have said this was the case a year ago, Democrats are
saying only after they made changes to it, to have gotten it to this point, but they basically were both saying that this better protects the American
worker.
The big knock against NAFTA negotiated during the Clinton administration was that it threw American workers under the bus by using cheap labor here
in Mexico to undercut salaries, to undercut prices and therefore make the American factory and the American worker less expensive.
What Republicans and Democrats have now come together on is that that's not going to be the case anymore. That American workers are going to be
guaranteed higher wages, that they're guaranteeing that more of the source material in things like cars, for example, like steel, a vast majority of
that has to come from North American factories.
So they're saying that there's a lot more protections in there for the ordinary worker, that is what Democrats and Republicans are going to go
back to their respective bases during this Christmas holiday and say, this is what we did for you.
And here in Mexico, we know that they're really happy about this because they can see it as a continued way to secure U.S. investment here in an
economy that really needs the investment.
QUEST: Matt, thank you. Matt Rivers is in Mexico City tonight. On QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, democratic lawmaker Gregory Meeks of New York is going to
discuss impeaching the President and getting the landmark trade deal through Congress.
[15:10:04]
QUEST: We go to France, sixth day of protests. Schools, museums, public transportation -- Paris has basically been brought to a halt, or at least
made very difficult. How long can this continue -- is obviously something that needs to be considered.
In a moment, after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: In the last hour, leaders from the U.S., Mexico and Canada have signed modifications to the USMCA, that's the new trade deal to modernize
and replace NAFTA.
The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi praised the deal, saying it'll be better than NAFTA and the version she approved is better than that proposed by the
Trump administration.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): There is no question, of course, that this trade agreement is much better than NAFTA. But in terms of our work here, it is
infinitely better than what was initially proposed by the administration.
It's a victory for America's workers. It's one that we take great pride -- great pride in advancing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Representative Gregory Meeks is with me, a Democrat who serves on the House Foreign Affairs and Financial Services Committee. It is good to
have you joining us from Capitol Hill. Sir, thank you. What way is this final version as amended by the House better than the version that was put
forward originally by the administration?
REP. GREGORY MEEKS (D-NY): There's a number of ways that it is better. Number one, when you talk about enforcement, as far as labor enforcement to
make sure that, you know, there's no abuse of labor folks and rights, it's included in the agreement itself, as opposed to like the original NAFTA and
what initially had been proposed by the administration, with a bit of an outside agreement.
So the fact that it is inside the agreement itself, and there's mechanisms to check and to make sure that there's enforcement of the agreement that
makes it substantially better for the American worker, as well as for the Mexican worker.
And then when you look at the origination of steel and other matters, it makes sure that given the global distribution center, that American workers
and American jobs and Canadian -- that both -- you know, it gives greater opportunities and raises wages for everybody across the board. That's
substantially important and an improvement from what the administration initially offered.
[15:15:05]
QUEST: This all comes -- this proving of bipartisanship does come on the same day that of course, the Articles of Impeachment come forward. It's
now what we would say with certainty that the President will be impeached; highly likely he won't be removed. And it's possible he will use it as a
badge of honor in the election. So what's the point?
MEEKS: Well, the point is, I know for me, I have a constitutional responsibility, and I think that if you listen to all the testimony that
was given by some very credible witnesses, that basically was unrebutted because the President obstructed or tried to obstruct the investigation on
the House side. It is unrebutted that the President abused his power by holding up public dollars that benefited himself and tried to give him the
edge to the 2020 elections.
So the camera of history is rolling. And so for me, I don't want it to look, you know, on a historic basis that we've neglected the
responsibilities that we have. Plus, I think that there are additional information that may come out that could make a difference in a Senate
trial, like, compelling.
Those individuals that the President has been preventing from testifying to testify. We need to hear from Bolton that the President prevented from
testifying. We need to hear from Giuliani. We need to hear from Mulvaney. Although, we kind of heard from Mulvaney already who just said get over it;
that the President did in fact, have a quid pro quo.
But I would love to get them under oath, and I think that there is a possibility because even today, I heard there's somewhat of a divide
between McConnell and the President because there's some senators there that are in some closed districts themselves.
QUEST: But in this impeachment process, one can see a President who is going to turn the fact that he has been impeached to his perceived arguable
advantage.
MEEKS: Well, I disagree with that. Look, there's 35 percent of the people that the President said he can shoot somebody in the middle of Times Square
and they're going to vote for him anyways. So I'm not thinking about that 35 percent. Those are the individuals who you can say that this
proceeding, and I don't call it that it was a process that has not been fair and legitimate. This had been a fair, open and legitimate process.
Those 35 percent will be the ones that will, you know, be with him no matter what, but there are a large number of individuals, moderate
Republicans, independents, individuals that have voted for Barack Obama twice, and then voted and took a chance and voted on Trump this time.
They're paying very particular and close attention to this.
And I think that this is important to them and the support that the Democrats stand up and do their constitutional responsibility and protect
our Constitution, not go against it as this President has.
QUEST: Finally, I want to come back to trade, if we may, sir, and because obviously, you're on the Financial Services Committee, you're seeing the
economy being affected by the trade war with China. Do you have hope that this Phase 1 we've heard about will ever be signed? Or that the U.S. will
put to rest this war -- this trade war with China?
MEEKS: Well, you know, this President is so inconsistent, you don't know what to believe ever. You know, if you listen to him, you know, he said,
he's going to try to put together to end these tariffs, and end these things of this nature, and this trade war that we have, but there seems to
be no movement.
And so therefore, there is a problem we are in. And for me, you know, I think that for the sake of our country, we need to do things in a
multilateral way. For me, you know, we talked about trade agreements that passed with USMCA, I was a big proponent of TPP, where we gathered with all
of our allies across the country to hold China in check so that the rules will be set by us from the west, and then compel China to even abide by it
or they would be isolated.
But it's hard to isolate China, doing it on a one-on-one basis as opposed to working in a multilateral way with our allies to set the standards in
trade as we started to do now with the USMCA.
You know, multilateral trade deal is I think is the way to hold China in check.
QUEST: Good to see you, Congressman. Thank you, sir, for taking the time on a busy day to talk to us.
MEEKS: Good to be with you.
QUEST: I appreciate it. Thank you.
MEEKS: My pleasure.
QUEST: So to France, protesters on the streets again, on Tuesday. Public transportation has come to a halt as hundreds of thousands are
demonstrating against Macron's proposed pension reform.
Well, a 600 kilometers of traffic built up in Paris. Jim Bittermann is in the French Capitol tonight.
[15:20:10]
QUEST: So, I mean, is it -- is this the way it's going to be until one side breaks?
JIM BITTERMANN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes, Richard, up to a point. I mean, I think what's happened -- the
demonstrations today weren't quite as big as last week when all this began, last Thursday when it began. There are about half as many people on the
streets, about half as many strikers in the public sector today compared to last week.
However, the travel chaos was just as bad, if not worse. And in fact, as you mentioned, hundreds of miles of traffic jams and the subway system was
badly hit, the train system badly hit. So it is travel chaos for anybody trying to commute.
It's all going to come down though through tomorrow because tomorrow at noon, the Prime Minister is going to announce the details of his planned
retirement reform to the public sector workers and those details could make a big difference in what happens here.
Up until now, this has all been preemptory. The union has been saying we don't want to have anybody tamper with our retirement plan. So we'll see
what happens tomorrow. It could get better or it could get worse -- Richard.
QUEST: Okay, Jim, let's not worry about the strike. Let's talk about those reforms. There's something like 42 or 43 different retirement
programs that's all very expensive. So what -- as you've looked at this retirement issue within France, where are the rights and wrongs within the
demands?
BITTERMANN: Well, I think for a long time, people thought that it's just a very unfair or at least uneven system in terms of the way it's
administered. Train drivers, for example, have the right to retire at age 52. And that goes back to the days when they were shoveling coal in the
steam engines and it was difficult and dirty and a life-shortening job. But that's not the case anymore.
They're sitting in, you know, air conditioned cabs, riding the trains across the country. But they still can retire at age 52 and go on for
another, perhaps 30 years if you look at the life expectancy tables, and that's just a big drain on the system.
There are in fact, twice as many people drawing just in the train sector. There are twice as many people drawing from those system pensions than
there are people contributing to pensions.
So the government is saying, hey, look, this can't go on forever. There are 42 of these special regimes. We want to make it homogenized, figure
out some way to base it on points and yes, some people should get a little bit early -- a little more advantage in terms of their retirement, but they
haven't figured out exactly how to do that.
And when I make this announcement tomorrow, people are going to sort through it and discover exactly how they're going to be hurt. That'll be
the big telling point into whether the strikes and demonstrations will continue -- Richard.
QUEST: And you'll be with us to help us understand. Thank you. Jim Bittermann in Paris for us.
In a moment, the 2020 candidate Michael Bloomberg takes the international stage at COP 25. He wants U.S. voters to know about climate change when we
discuss in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:25:08]
QUEST: U.S. presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg says climate change should be a top priority for voters in 2020. He spoke exclusively with
Christiane Amanpour at COP 25 in Madrid and he said that while he is late to the Democratic race, he's not late to the climate crisis.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been doing this for a very large number of years, we've put a billion dollars of my money into
working on climate change. We've gone all around the world to speak. We've lined up for foreign leaders and rallies and got everybody to make
some progress. We're not where we have to be, but we've made it for a long time.
The running for President came afterwards, not before.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: Do you think interestingly, right now that climate could be an election issue, particularly amongst the young? We see
in many areas that the environment is overtaking migration-immigration.
BLOOMBERG: Two things. Number one, I think the statistics say you're right that particularly young people care. And number two, it certainly
should be at the top of everybody's list. Climate change has the potential to destroy our planet as we know it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: So that's the background, but a new report says companies worldwide could lose up to $2.3 trillion from tighter climate restrictions.
According to the investor group, Principles for Responsible Investment.
The energy, the auto, and the mining sectors obviously will be the hardest hit. Those companies who adapt would see this shares skyrocket.
CNN's Arwa Damon is at COP 25 in Madrid, she joins me now. The corporations have a very -- it's a strange relationship isn't it with COP
meetings because everybody that recognizes they need them, because they are the ones who have to make the changes and they are engaged in the debate
there.
ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: They are, and that is something that a lot of the NGOs here will be quick to say is not exactly
how this conversation should be unfolding.
You have the carbon majors who have a fairly sizable seat at this table when they are the ones who we are all essentially relying on to make these
emissions and when you speak to a number of these organizations to include Greenpeace on down to 350, they will all say that we no longer have room
for a world that is driven by fossil fuels or a world that is driven by gas and oil. That time is passed and it's passed because we can't afford to be
emitting any more carbon into the atmosphere.
What a lot of other professionals and companies themselves and in fact, city leaders are saying is that we need to be transitioning into a more
sustainable way of life. We need to be transitioning away from this and building new economies that actually they are -- can be built and can be
financially viable that is based on other sources of energy.
QUEST: But Arwa, is there also a realization that, even if they are right, that transitional period, if, you know, if people are not to lose jobs, and
if poverty is not to rise, then managing that shift is going to be a challenge.
DAMON: Well, no one is saying that there isn't going to be a transitional period, Richard. No one is saying that we're just going to flip a magical
switch somehow and stop driving our cars and completely upend our way of life. The issue is that right now, as we are talking, rather than
significantly reducing emissions and reducing reliance on the kind of scale we need to preserve our current way of life, that is not happening and a
conversation towards getting us there is not even what's really happening at the level it needs to be happening at.
Because it needs to be happening at the national level and the only people you have talking about it most of the time are these youth activists and
children.
QUEST: Arwa, thank you. You're at COP 25. Keep us informed please, as this thing continues.
Now, Wall Street seems to rise and fall of every trade headline these days particularly on China. There is positive news about tariffs and deals.
The market is calm. You can see the market has very little movement. But we are in the last half hour of trading.
This is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:30:00]
QUEST: Hello, I'm Richard Quest, more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS in a moment. We look at how a ban on U.S. flights is stifling Cuba's tourism industry.
And only days until Britain goes to the polls in the election, we look at what the outcome could mean for the British economy. This is CNN of
course, and here on this network, the facts always come first.
President Trump's meeting with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the White House right now. The meeting is not open to the press. The two
men plan to discuss arms control Ukraine, Syria and North Korea.
A number of people died from Monday's volcanic eruptions in New Zealand is expected to climb. So far, six people are confirmed dead and at least six
people are still reported missing. This video was captured by a helicopter rescue group who said they found no signs of life as ash blanketed
seemingly everything. Thirty one people are in hospital with burn injuries.
A Chilean Air Force official says search efforts for a missing military plane will go on for the next six days. The aircraft is presumed to have
crashed after losing contact on a routine trip to Antarctica late on Monday night. There were 38 people on board.
There's been a mini rally in sort of the middle of December. We had a very poor beginning of December, lots of losses, then a mini rally. And now
Wall Street is doing its best to pass the deluge of news that's coming out of Washington. You've got impeachment -- the articles, you've got USMCA
being signed, you've got possible China tariff delay.
And Larry Kudlow; the chief adviser is cautioning that any decision on tariffs is not final.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LARRY KUDLOW, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL, UNITED STATES: The president has indicated if the short strokes remaining negotiations do not
pan out to his liking, that those tariffs could go back into place.
So, they could not, but they also could. There's no definitive decision on that yet.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[15:35:00]
QUEST: Clare Sebastian is in New York. Clare, I'm just looking at a graph of the Dow at the moment with which sort of was interesting because you did
have those -- that sharp loss out of the end of November, the rally has picked back up again. What's going on?
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Richard, I think if you look at today, that is a clear picture of uncertainty. We don't know,
we're getting a lot of mixed signals on trade. On the one hand, the "Wall Street Journal" as you said reporting that they're looking at delaying the
December 15th, tariffs were just five days out.
So, that is something the market is really focused on. But then, Larry Kudlow coming out and saying, look, they're still on the table. So that is
a consideration, we've got the Fed meeting tomorrow. So, I think a lot of water is being treaded by investors at the moment. They're sort of waiting
to fill out what's coming next. And these are big events, these tariffs are crucially important for the global economy. This next round of
tariffs, Richard, will squarely hit the U.S. consumer which so far has been more or less insulated.
QUEST: OK, but you say that -- but these -- the market has withstood the very febrile, often virulent and damaging tariffs so far. Why -- even if
it does hit the consumer and the consumer is the backbone of the economy, I'm aware, will the market not just shrug them off?
SEBASTIAN: Well, actually, Richard, you make a good point, because if you look even further back in time, so far, this year, the S&P 500 is up some
25 percent, the Dow up about 20 percent. It is as you say remarkable resilience in the face of a trade dispute between the world's two biggest
economies, where we're seeing contagion ripple around the world.
That is partly due to the Fed. They have now done three interest rate cuts which has, you know, significantly supported the market, and also on the
hopes of a trade deal. Some of the rally that we've seen since that handshake between Trump and the U.S. -- the top Chinese negotiator back in
October has the optimism about a phase one trade deal has fuelled part of the market moves that we've seen since then.
I think we're getting into a situation now where market expectations are sort of coming down on that. I think perhaps the best case scenario that
they're now looking at is a delay on those tariffs to allow more time to negotiate. And we heard from Larry Kudlow today, that the negotiations
continue, he said almost daily between deputies on both sides.
QUEST: Clare, thank you. When we -- before the end of the week, I think or certainly next week we should really get into exactly where we stand on
the air -- those gains. Remember, we were only expecting, of course the Dow or the S&P to make just less than double digits in terms of gains.
They may be doing much better, and we all thought they would do as the year went on.
In Britain, it's the countdown to the U.K. election, 48 hours from now, we leave -- voting will be just about over, and the party leaders campaigning
across the U.K. The potential outcomes in these pivotal moments, in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:40:00]
QUEST: Two days from U.K.'s high stakes general election. The four main party leaders are all busy making final pitches as they move round the
country. In the next couple of hours, we'll have a clearer picture of how it might shake out. YouGov is set to release its election forecast. In a
three ways this election could swing essentially.
Polls suggest Boris Johnson is on track to win a majority in parliament. The gap is narrowing. So Britain could end up with a hung parliament and
an extension to a Brexit stalemate or a major upset. Opposition parties could form a coalition. Governor James Blitz is Whitehall editor with the
"Financial Times" with me. James --
JAMES BLITZ, WHITEHALL EDITOR, FINANCIAL TIMES: Hello Richard --
QUEST: The way things are looking tonight, how do you see it?
BLITZ: I think the consensus is Johnson will come in with a majority of around 30 in the 650 seat House of Commons. So, a comfortable majority
which allows him to basically take Britain out of the EU at the end of next month. But the trouble is, the polls have been uncertain for quite a while
in British politics.
And there have been big surprises and the 2015, 2017 and 2010 elections. So people are a little bit unsure -- and the margin in some of the
constituencies is very small indeed.
QUEST: And I'm thinking of the '17 election, of course. The disastrous decision to go to the polls when there was a suggestion that Theresa May
would get a better majority.
BLITZ: Yes, Theresa May did terribly in 2017. She --
QUEST: Was it --
BLITZ: Had a huge lead at the start, and that gradually crumbled. But she took so many risks in the election, and she ended up having a hung
parliament. At best --
QUEST: Was that -- was that election her fault?
BLITZ: Was the election her fault?
QUEST: No, I mean, you know, the result --
BLITZ: Yes, definitely, she made a -- she had a terrible campaign. She had a manifesto which make commitments on social care which turned out to
be very unpopular in the country, and she was a terrible campaigner.
QUEST: Now --
BLITZ: One of the worst campaigners as Prime Minister we've seen.
QUEST: But Boris Johnson is not a bad campaigner. He does a pretty good job on the door-step.
BLITZ: Technically, he's ran a very good campaign indeed. He's been very disciplined, he's taken no risk -- it's sort of a very defensive campaign.
The Tories started off with a 10-point lead and they basically played it safe. They've not wanted to lose it at all. He's made some mistakes, but
not many.
QUEST: And Jeremy Corbyn, the Labor Party cannot get away from this anti- Semitism accusation and allegations which are deep-rooted. And he -- and he has not handled it well.
BLITZ: No, it's hung over the Labor Party throughout the campaign. It's not a vote changer for a lot of people in the country. They would still
want to vote Labor. They didn't find the anti-Semitism -- turns them away from him. But it takes up a lot of headlines.
QUEST: But to this point we were saying here. This party, the Conservatives have been in government since 2010 --
BLITZ: Since 2010.
QUEST: For them to be still this popular at this stage and when they -- by most agreements have made a complete and utter mess of Brexit. Is
something extraordinary.
BLITZ: It is extraordinary.
QUEST: Why is this?
BLITZ: It's Corbyn basically. Any other leader of the Labor Party would be eating the Conservatives up right now. It's -- as you say, the
Conservatives have been in power for nine years. Most of those years have been years of austerity. They've made a complete (INAUDIBLE) of Brexit.
Labor ought to be just running through this campaign and winning.
But Corbyn is so unpopular, he has such a left-wing manifesto, the anti- Semitism issue hangs over him. And as a result -- although some of his policies are quite popular, the country doesn't trust him to implement them
properly.
QUEST: This idea -- we're a business program. This idea of virtually returning to Labor, post-second World War nationalization of key areas of
the economy including Broadband.
BLITZ: Yes, it's extraordinary, I mean in 2017, they had quite a left-wing manifesto. For some reason which I don't completely understand, they
decided to have something really absolutely radical. They want to carry out nationalizations in water, electricity --
QUEST: Railway --
BLITZ: To Broadband, the railways, and so on and so forth. And absolutely colossal --
QUEST: And the National Investment Bank --
BLITZ: Exactly. They've talked about going on for a four-day week for anybody over a certain age, say you and me. I mean, you remember the
three-day week of Edward Lee(ph), I mean, this is a total --
QUEST: Yes, I do unfortunately --
BLITZ: Unfortunately same with me. And I -- it is an absolute turn-off, strategically it's been a disaster. As I say, another leader, Keir
Starmer, Emily Thornberry would have done so much better.
[15:45:00]
But Corbyn seems to be -- probably like to be somebody stuck in a very old way of seeing things.
QUEST: Are you looking forward to election night? Now, you've covered a few elections, isn't it now, pretty much since the mid-'80s, we've been
involved in elections in this country in one way or the other. Is this still an exciting night?
BLITZ: It is an exciting night and exit poll, going back to 2010 at least has been very accurate indeed. So, 10:00 on Thursday, we'll have a good
idea. That said, the race is very close in a lot of these constituencies, and it may be well into the night before we know if he's really done it.
QUEST: Good to see you, sir, as always --
BLITZ: Yes, sure --
QUEST: Thank you. As we continue, many cities depending on tourists have spent money and contribute to their economies. A new report warns cities
not to rely too much on one type of visitor -- diversifying.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: President Trump is continuing to clamp down on tourism to Cuba, banning U.S flights to nine cities there beginning on Tuesday. Havana is
not included in the measure. But it is though, it is moved by the president to reverse the Cuba policy set by Barack Obama. CNN's Patrick
Oppmann has this report from Havana.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Well, herds of American visitors once roamed Havana's (INAUDIBLE) plazas, now they're something of
an endangered species. The morning we filmed here, we couldn't find anyone from the United States.
Cuba's tourism industry is suffering after the Trump administration once again is making it more difficult for Americans to visit the communist-run
island. On Tuesday, an administration ruling canceling U.S. flights to nine destinations in Cuba takes effect. Rafael, who dresses up as a dandy
in old Havana, and charges tourists to take photos of him with his huge sugar says he's hurting.
Now, there's nothing, there isn't anyone, he says. Trump's blockade doesn't let us make a living. As a candidate for president, Trump
campaigned on reversing the Obama administration's opening with Cuba. A promise to anti-engagement Cuban-Americans mainly in Florida that he's more
than fulfilled since becoming president.
The Trump administration has placed sanctions on the ships that bring oil to Cuba from ally Venezuela, leading to long lines across the island for
gas. U.S. administration officials blame Cuban support for the Maduro regime and survival in Venezuela, despite U.S. sanctions.
[15:50:00]
U.S. cruise ships that once filled the Havana harbor and the tourists they brought with them are now gone after the Trump administration ordered the
cruise lines to leave immediately in June. In April, the U.S. for the first time allowed people who lost property after the Cuban revolution to
sue foreign companies using that property in U.S. courts, angering allies like Canada and Spain. The administration says they'll continue to ratchet
up the pressure.
MIKE POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE, UNITED STATES: The Obama administration is cuddling up to Cuba by applying heavy new sanctions. We recognize that
engagement has not improved Cuba's regime and hasn't made it better. The human rights record was worse.
OPPMANN: But it doesn't appear that Trump's sanctions are changing Cuba's domestic policies. In October, Cuba arrested Jose Daniel Ferrer; the head
of the island's largest anti-government dissident group. Cuba says he's a violent criminal. The U.S. says he's a civil rights leader. Despite U.S.
and international outcry, Ferrer remains jailed. Cuba's government concedes Trump policy towards Cuba has caused more economic hardship, but
says it won't achieve any of its goals.
As the Cuban saying goes they want to cut the light, water and even the air we breathe. Cuba's president said in a nationally-televised address, why?
To force concessions from us. Cuban officials say U.S. bullying will backfire.
(on camera): With each new round of sanctions, the Cuban government says, it will maintain its solidarity with Venezuela and other regional allies,
and that U.S. pressure will cause them to retreat one inch with much of the rest of the world doing business here and visiting Cuba after 60 years of
economic sanctions. It's not clear any more if the United States is isolating Cuba or itself. Patrick Oppmann, CNN, Havana.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: Now Cuba shows how a sudden drop in international visitors can hurt the local economy. And a new report says relying on just domestic visitors
can be risky as well. The report is from the World Travel and Tourism Council, the WTTC. And they say it's important for destinations to
diversify. Let's take for example Orlando, 87 percent come from the domestic U.S., 13 percent are international.
In Bangkok in Thailand, it's the other way around, 80 percent are international, only 18 are coming from within Thailand. And put it in the
middle, and you've got a destination that's beautifully balanced, 55 percent of tourists are domestic and 45 percent international.
By the way, of course, if you're looking at the spend that's very different. Then you've got the internationals way ahead in the amount that
they actually spend on hotels, theaters, meals out and the domestics. Gloria Guevara is the president and CEO of the WTTC. She told me earlier,
why cities should aim for balance between two types of visitors.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GLORIA GUEVARA, PRESIDENT & CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL: When you have a very well balanced, what happens -- if you depend
only on domestic or international, when you have a situation and you're not prepared to deal with that situation, it's a greater impact in the country
aviation from travel and tourism. And that's significant.
QUEST: So, what sort of places --
GUEVARA: In fact, and job --
QUEST: What sort of places are we thinking of?
GUEVARA: Well, we can think about many places. For instance, we can talk about London in the case of the uncertainty that is going on because of
Brexit, unfortunately, 85 percent of the contribution in London is from international arrivals, so international travelers, and 15 percent is
domestic. And because of the uncertainty, we have seen decrease in growth in general.
Now at the same time, we can see Paris, another city that has higher contribution in international spend, as I mentioned Hong Kong before, and
then the opposite as well --
QUEST: Well, Hong Kong is an interesting one at the moment, isn't it? Because --
GUEVARA: Yes --
QUEST: For what we're seeing with the Hong Kong numbers, they are just going down.
GUEVARA: Yes, absolutely. The number of international visitors is going down. And because their dependency of international travelers is pretty
high, as I say, 85 percent, 80 percent of the totals is significant.
QUEST: What can a city do about it, though? Because if that's the way the make-up of your city is, how easy is it to suddenly attract other people?
Let's take -- I know, plus, what's in your note, Orlando, which is 85 percent domestic --
GUEVARA: Domestic --
QUEST: U.S. domestic, 15 percent --
GUEVARA: International.
QUEST: Is it that easy to do that?
GUEVARA: Well, it's not that easy, but you need to have a plan for that. If you have a plan, that it will take you to have that 50-50 balance, you
are much prepared. You need to be prepared for any situation. And that's something that the cities have to consider because they can have a crisis
tomorrow or a situation any time.
QUEST: So, if you are -- if you are heavy on international -- give me an example of a city heavy on international and low on domestic, what would a
good city do?
[15:55:00]
GUEVARA: Like for instance like London, Paris, Hong Kong, 85 percent international --
QUEST: How easy is it --
GUEVARA: Fifteen percent domestic, they need to figure out how to increase domestic contribution. The travelers of domestic and balance that out.
And at the same time, the internationals, they need to look at the different nationalities that they have, so how they balance that.
Are they depending only Europeans? Are they depending long hauls? Where are the dependency? So that you have not only 50-50 domestic international, but
the international also has a good proportion.
QUEST: Not from --
GUEVARA: Is different nationalities -- it's not easy, but if you don't have a plan for them, how are you going to achieve that. And what we see
the many times, cities are not that well prepared.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Gloria Guevara of the WTTC. Quickly to the markets, look, a nasty drop just there, but not a huge amount on the Dow 30, you'll see exactly
what's happening, who is up? Who is down? And the difference between them.
United Health Group are at the top of half a percent, 3M down at the bottom. But there's no real theme throughout on a day where the market has
pretty much been all over the place. Profitable moment after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Tonight's profitable moment, I've been covering U.K. elections for 30 years. My first one was in '87, Thatcher's third election. And it's
usually a cliche to say no election is as important as the next one or this one. But it is true here because the results of this one could
definitively decide whether the U.K. leaves the European Union at the end of January.
If the Tories win a majority, that is what will happen. Britain will be out of the EU, a new era will have began. If Lib-Dems win, then which is
highly unlikely, then the opposite status quo. If Labor wins, well, who knows what will happen after that. But there is a choice for the British
people. Like of which I could rarely say that I've seen between this Boris Johnson out of Brexit to a very left wing, we'll re-nationalize large
swaths of the British economy being off a budget -- Jeremy Corbyn and Labor.
And that sort of diametrically opposed view on economic grounds is very rare, which is why this election is so significant. Whichever way one may
choose to vote. The election is in 48 hours time, I won't be with you tomorrow night, but I'll be sitting right here when the polls close.
And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight, I'm Richard Quest in London --
(BELL RINGING)
Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, I hope it is profitable. The day is done, the Dow is down.
END
END
