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Quest Means Business

Secretary Yellen Says Rates May Have To Rise To Stop Overheating; Gates Foundation Plots Post-Divorce Future; Hospitals In India Running Out Of Oxygen; Saudi Aramco Reports 30 Percent Boost In Q1 Net Profit; U.S. Markets Down As Yellen Suggests Possible Rate Hike; FedEx Shares Weather Cargo Disruption To Hit Record. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired May 04, 2021 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:20]

RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: We are an hour until the closing bell, and look at the Dow, but don't be fooled. The Dow may be off just a

tad, off only 105 points, 34,000. It is looking a bit risky. It's a dire situation on the NASDAQ as the triple stack shows.

You've got the Dow and the S&P 500 both holding their own roughly a quarter or one percent down. It's the NASDAQ that's off more than two percent as I

will explain because those are the markets and the main events that have driven the day, particularly with market's Janet Yellen Treasury Secretary

says interest rates may have to rise to keep the U.S. economy from overheating, particularly from of course, the administration's policies.

The Gates Foundation says it is business as usual despite Bill and Melinda Gates's impending divorce.

And India's government denies claims that international aid is being held up. We have a perspective tonight from Fareed Zakaria.

We are live in New York. It is Tuesday, it is the 4th of May. I'm Richard Quest and even on a down day in the markets, I certainly mean business.

Good evening. Tonight, there's market mayhem. Janet Yellen may no longer be the person who sets U.S. interest rates, but as U.S. Treasury Secretary,

she certainly has weight and influence, and now says rates may have to go up to stop the economy from overheating.

All three U.S. indices as I showed you at the top of the show are lower. The NASDAQ is particularly badly hit. Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon,

Facebook, the so-called pandemic winners are down as the U.S. is pushing ahead with its COVID vaccination drive and stimulus measures. All of those

stocks have been up very sharply.

What Janet Yellen said as Treasury Secretary, and it is important to make this distinction. She is no longer running the Fed, but what she says is

economic growth brought on by pandemic spending needs to be carefully moderated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JANET YELLEN, U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn't overheat, even

though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.

So, it could cause some very modest increases in interest rates to get that reallocation, but are these investments that our economy needs to be

competitive and to be productive.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Janet Yellen may have just spoken the truth that dare not speak its name. But these are comments from the former Fed Chair, and it adds a level

of intrigue to what the Federal Reserve under Jay Powell, of course will do.

Remember, Yellen and Powell are on opposite sides of the same coin, and the Yellen scenario is one that the markets may be dreading.

The Fed has made it clear for several meetings it won't raise rates until the U.S. economy has reached maximum employment. With inflation above two

percent for some time, the asymmetric inflation, that's what the F.O.M.C. said only 10 days ago, last week.

The Fed hasn't raised rates since 2018, and if you look at how they did during the 2018 rate cycle, you can see just how the so-called -- it was a

taper tantrum first, which went into a rate hike cycle thereafter.

There were rate hikes in March, June and September of 2018, and it was only the year -- it was the only year in the Trump presidency when the Dow

actually fell.

Paul La Monica is here. Janet Yellen has said what everybody is thinking, that this administration is about to put another $4 trillion on top of the

$2 trillion of the stimulus package before back in January into the economy and that will be inflationary.

PAUL LA MONICA, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: Yes, I think that as of right now, Richard, the good news from an inflation standpoint is that wages are not

rising at such a dramatic level to really set off the inflation alarm bells just yet, which is not great news for people looking at their paychecks and

wanting more money obviously.

But when we get those jobs figures later this week, it is unlikely that we're going to see a dramatic spike in wages, and that is what Jerome

Powell wants to see. Yes, Janet Yellen has clout as the current Treasury Secretary and Powell's predecessor. But Powell is still the one calling the

shots at the Fed and he has made it painstakingly clear that the Fed has learned from the taper tantrum that you discussed.

[15:05:12]

LA MONICA: What the Fed is going to do before it gets close to raising rates, it's going to start to talk about tapering before it tapers. Then it

will taper, then it will raise rates.

Unless inflation comes out of nowhere, we are not going to see dramatic rate hikes. I mean, right now, the Fed Funds Futures are pricing in about

an 11 percent chance of a rate hike in December. That's not insignificant, but it's not that high either, obviously.

QUEST: Okay. But Yellen knows what she is talking about, having run the Fed, and she knows that rate hikes will be coming sooner than later. Is it

feasible that they would hike rates before they have tapered?

LA MONICA: I don't think that would happen unless inflation really comes out of nowhere, and we're talking about 1970s style, 1980s inflation, the

likes of which we last saw when the late Paul Volker was running the Fed. That doesn't really seem to be in the cards.

And again, I think investors here are just looking for an excuse to sell some tech stocks that had run up very dramatically in a very short period

of time. Janet Yellen didn't really turn into an inflation hawk overnight with her comments, she was very cautious in saying that rates may have to

rise modestly. She is still talking in Fed Speak code.

I don't think she said anything that should be perceived as, oh, no, the Fed has to go out and dramatically raise interest rates overnight or we're

going to wind up with inflation and huge style price rises like the 1970s. That's not what's in the cards and Janet Yellen knows that.

QUEST: Paul La Monica, Guru, thank you, sir.

In the midst of the pandemic, one of the most powerful and influential bodies in global public health says there will be no change in its mission

to promote equality in welfare around the world. This, of course is despite the private matters concerning the founders, Bill and Melinda Gates. They

filed for divorce. There is a separation contract to dispose of their assets between them. We don't know what that says.

And they say they will continue their roles as co-chairs and trustees at the largest philanthropic foundation in the U.S. The body has spent more

than $50 billion in the past two decades eradicating poverty, promoting gender equality, and maternal health, fight disease, and sustainability.

Clare Sebastian is in New York. According to the head of the foundation, the couple have made it clear that they will both still remain as co-

founders, as co-chairmen, and that there will be no changes expected.

But it doesn't suggest much more than that. Should we take it at its face value?

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: I mean, that's Richard, what we're hearing from Bill and Melinda Gates as well in their joint statement.

They say, "We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue to work together at the foundation," they just say. "But we no longer

believe we can grow together as a couple in this next phase of our lives."

They are both, everyone, repeating this refrain that nothing is going to change. This of course is a critical time for this foundation. They've

spent the last 20 years trying to eradicate infectious diseases like malaria and polio, working on issues of inequality. All of that tailor-made

experience for the moment we are in currently with the pandemic.

They have so far spent $1.75 billion on efforts to fight COVID-19, including things like procuring medical equipment, PPE, helping with the

vaccine effort. It's a very critical moment.

It's hard to say if anything will change. It's a huge organization, 1,600 employees, nine offices around the world. But they do give it a sort of a

tone of kind of a family business. You read their annual letter, they both annotated it in their different colors. There is a picture of them in the

last one, sort of working from home together.

There are jokes about how neither of them can cook. So I think it is possible that while the work will continue, there may be a shift in tone --

Richard.

QUEST: Right, and related to that, this idea that Melinda Gates is likely to, whatever she continues to do with the joint foundation, she will be

doing more work with her own foundation on gender equality and women's issues.

SEBASTIAN: Yes. Look, I mean, that is something that I think you could see from both of them. They both have their signature issues within the broader

mission that they have been part of with the Gates Foundation.

She has been very involved in women's issues, promoting women's sort of entrepreneurship as well as maternal issues, women's health issues and all

of that, and on the other side, he has his own signature issue of climate change. He just published a book this year, Richard on that issue and has

been very vocal on the subject.

So, I think we could see perhaps more activity from them on those separate sort of projects as they continue the work on the foundation.

QUEST: Clare, thank you. Clare Sebastian.

Bill and Melinda Gates have together quite simply transformed philanthropy going beyond donations to one of causes.

[15:10:10]

QUEST: Instead, they rebuilt an architecture and they make those donations multiply and they changed the way success is regarded.

The foundation pledged, for example, $750 million to set up GAVI, The Vaccine Alliance. It co-leads COVAX on COVID vaccines to developing

countries. They gave half a billion dollars to the World Health Organization over two years, second only to the U.S. and the U.K., and

along with Warren Buffett, it is the giving pledge encouraging the super- rich to give most of their money to philanthropy.

Stacy Palmer is with me, the editor of "Chronicle of Philanthropy." She has interviewed Melinda Gates previously.

This is interesting. Do you take at face value what they say? Can you see realistically, Stacy, that there won't be changes either in emphasis or

leadership of the most powerful philanthropic organization in the world?

STACY PALMER, EDITOR, "CHRONICLE OF PHILANTHROPY": I think the foundation itself will continue to operate very much as it has, but as your

correspondent was just saying, the interests that Bill and Melinda have on their own, I suspect they will invest in those areas.

So, we will see climate change for Bill and probably more on women's issues for Melinda. She has already paved quite a path with her pivotal ventures

that invest in businesses and does philanthropy.

So, you know, I think we will see them carving out this path in new ways, but the foundation itself, the money is in there, they can't take it out.

That isn't going to be changed by a divorce.

So we can count on the Gates Foundation to continue to be with us for quite a long time. But it is set to sunset at a certain point. So it will go out

of business after they both die.

QUEST: But there's also this whole question of more money going into it because the amount that has gone into it is only a fraction of what under

the giving pledge she has promised.

Now, I mean, the only thing I sort of know about divorce is that it always end up -- it always ends up getting very messy and even when there is

billions and nobody is really worried about the division of assets, how those assets will eventually go into a foundation, whether they go into the

Bill and Melinda Foundation or they go into other foundations, that's not clear, is it?

PALMER: No, it's not and that is the big question because there still is a lot of money that the two of them control. So, we're all going to be

looking at that. I'm also curious how they involve their children.

Families often use philanthropy as a way to keep the family together even when there are some divisions in the relationship. So I would bet, you

know, they're of an age where we'll see more coming from them as well.

QUEST: Are we entitled, in your view, to show more than just a prurient voyeuristic interest in the divorce of the four richest people in the

world, which would be sort of gossipy in itself, but when they are responsible for an organization that is doing unbelievably good work and is

the backbone, in many cases, then the rest of us are entitled to say, hang on, hang on, we need to know more here.

PALMER: Yes. I think that's why people have raised questions. They have gotten great tax breaks from putting money into the foundation. So, that is

both a public and a private thing. And what some people have been raising questions about is will the Board of the foundation expand, will more

people get involved in the decision making?

Right now, it is Bill and Melinda and Warren Buffett. So we might see pressure for them to expand that out a bit more and take in more views of

people. So I would expect to see some changes.

QUEST: Finally, for those who are not familiar, Bill and Melinda Gates, they've revolutionized -- this foundation did more than have a lot of

money. I mean, I'd done a couple of stories over the years with them on this.

It was a mindset from the Carnegie, the Mellons, the Rockefellers, the old foundation mentality, but they brought a business acumen on return on

investment mentality. Tell me about that.

PALMER: Yes, they absolutely have, they asked for results, and it really shocked the nonprofit world when they kept saying: "Tell me the impact.

Prove it." And now everybody in nonprofits accepts the fact that we should show results, that's how we get better.

So they really revolutionized about how people think about giving. But the other thing they have done has been role models, both in terms of the

giving pledge where they ask billionaires to give, and they have done a lot to encourage everyday donors to give more.

And so, I think those are the ways in which we will see impact on our society is realizing that everybody has a place for giving, not just the

very wealthiest.

QUEST: Stacy, always -- thank you. Very good to have you on the program with some insight there. Thank you.

PALMER: Thank you.

QUEST: QUEST MEANS BUSINESS tonight, India's hospitals are in dire straits overwhelmed by the virus, running out of critical supplies and we are there

to report on it.

We'll be with you after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:17:37]

QUEST: New tonight, President Biden says he wants 70 percent of U.S. adults at least partially vaccinated by the Fourth of July. That number, 70

percent isn't just picked out of the air. That's the number of course that you get to, largely speaking, to get to herd immunity.

It's a goal that will require a hundred million more shots in arms over the next 60 days. The President has pledged more resources for vaccine

education and accessibility. A few moments ago, he said he wants to make it easier than ever for people to get their vaccine shots.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We know that many adults have not been vaccinated because they have found it too confusing or too

difficult or too inconvenient to get a shot.

So for those having trouble finding a location or making an appointment, we're going to make it easier than ever. We have formally launched a simple

website where you can find a vaccination location closest to you.

That site is vaccines.gov. Let me say it again, vaccines.gov.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Showing how desperate the situation can be elsewhere, India now says foreign aid is finally starting to reach hospitals overwhelmed by COVID-19.

A report that aid from Europe was delayed is in the government's words, "totally misleading."

But the government has confirmed that it took a week to distribute some medical supplies after they arrived in the country.

Now, in that time, the crisis has deepened. India now has surpassed 20 million cases. And there are more -- they are heading towards a quarter of

a million deaths. CNN's Sam Kiley is reporting now on some of those deaths that would have been preventable if hospitals had the oxygen that they

needed.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Tears for a much-loved colleague killed colleague, Dr. RK Himthani killed by COVID-19

in the same hospital where he had spent a year treating other victims of the coronavirus.

Grief and the inevitable silent question: who is next?

He died here in this intensive care unit because the Batra Hospital where he worked ran out of the most basic necessity -- oxygen.

He was not alone. The Medical Director of the Hospital, SCL Gupta gave the midafternoon casualty figures in this war against the virus.

[15:20:09]

DR. SCL GUPTA, MEDICAL DIRECTOR, BATRA HOSPITAL: Eight patients died today.

KILEY on camera: Eight?

GUPTA: Died just now, and five patients, they are under resuscitation, may or may not survive. Just because in the capital City of Delhi and because

of want of oxygen, which is the life line.

KILEY (voice over): He knew the chances of reviving the five were slim.

KILEY (on camera): When you heard this morning that you had just a few hours of oxygen and then eight patients die, what does that do to you, to

the soul of a doctor?

GUPTA: I cannot explain my feelings. We are dying inside. We are the saviors, not the murderers. And we cannot express our feelings. I cannot

express my feelings to you, sir, how I am feeling inside.

KILEY: Is it destroying you?

GUPTA: Yes.

KILEY: How long have you been a doctor?

GUPTA: What, sir?

KILEY: How long have you been a doctor?

GUPTA: Forty five years.

KILEY: It must be soul destroying. I can't imagine what it must be like for you. I'm sorry.

GUPTA: I'm sorry, sir.

KILEY (voice over): Over the next hour, four of the five resuscitation patients died.

KILEY (on camera): In a space of about two hours, when the oxygen ran out, 12 people died in this hospital which in every other respect is a first-

world facility. They simply asphyxiated.

KILEY (voice over): The hospital copes by advising patients to source their own supplies of oxygen to cover its erratic supplies.

Local and international efforts to get enough of the gas into India's capital are still failing. India's central and national government have

been unable to explain the oxygen shortages and as the number of people infected soars in India along with the daily death toll, the Batra

Hospital, like many others, will admit no more patients. There's no point.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We will not take more admissions because we don't want people to die in front of us, so they can go to other hospitals where

oxygens are available.

KILEY (voice over): Dr. Kishore Chawla runs a Hindu temple charity. He pulled through COVID before the oxygen started to run out.

KISHORE CHAWLA, CEO, CHHATARPUR MANDIR: From housekeeping and even the nursing staff, the supervisor all are working very hard.

KILEY (voice over): Fair enough. But the India government's failure to ensure basic supplies to hospitals in the face of a long-term pandemic is

simply not going to wash.

Sam Kiley, CNN, New Delhi.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: Fareed Zakaria is the host of "Fareed Zakaria GPS." His latest book is called, "Ten Lessons for Post-Pandemic World." He is in New York and

Fareed, of course, you have had your own loss as a result of COVID, to which we commiserate.

When you look at that report, I mean, the 10 lessons of the pandemic world, one of them I don't think was make sure you've got enough oxygen, which is

something so basic in a hospital. How do you -- if you can, square the circle?

FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: Well, actually, I can, Richard. Lesson number two was about the quality of the state. It's not about the quantity of

government, it is about the quality of government. And in India -- India is the perfect illustration of this.

India thought the most important thing was to have a kind of socialist economy. So, big government, but big bureaucratic, corrupt, inefficient

government and that has never been sorted out.

India did a whole bunch of reforms that unleashed the private sector in areas, but never reformed its state. It never got its government to work

well. India's government remains famously dysfunctional.

And so what you're witnessing there alas is the human cost of a government that is sclerotic, corrupt, inefficient when confronting a pandemic in

which speed, urgency, independence or autonomy matter. It's not an accident that the governments of countries like Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, have

been able to handle this brilliantly, and that a government like India's has alas essentially collapsed in the face of a crisis.

QUEST: The ability -- collapse in the face of a crisis, but at the same time making a bad situation worse. For instance, the political rallies,

allowing the festivals to go ahead.

Now, did they not see what happened in the United States in Thanksgiving or over Christmas? Did they not get an idea that this was a bad idea?

[15:25:04]

ZAKARIA: The Indians seem to have followed a sad, but universal principle, which is you don't learn from other people's mistakes, you learn from your

own, alas.

So you're absolutely right, Richard. There was ample evidence that earn from other people's mistakes, you learn from your own. So you're absolutely

right, Richard. There is ample evidence that relaxing too much on this pandemic would be a bad idea.

It wasn't just the United States. The French did that in August, and they got a huge spike. The Germans did that in Oktoberfest. But the Indians did

it on a scale that nobody else did.

Prime Minister Modi decided he wanted to campaign and campaign big. So, he allowed election rallies almost daily. These are tens of thousands,

sometimes hundreds of thousands of people. And then of course once you allow that, you have to allow cricket matches, and you have to allow

religious festivals.

It is worth pointing out that he disallowed Muslim religious festivals and prosecuted people who attended those, some of those people are still lying

in jails while allowing Hindu Festivals.

QUEST: The latest regional elections, it's hard to gauge, his party did not do well. But it is hard gauge whether or not the electorate is taking the

failure of the COVID policy out.

When will we get a better idea whether Modi is going to pay a political price for the level of death?

ZAKARIA: Not for a while because there aren't national elections for a while. And you're right, it's not clear that this was much of a

repudiation.

Look, Richard, we are in a world in which politics has become very tribal. People vote for a political party or a leader because he is their guy, he

is on their team. Performance doesn't seem to matter that much.

Alas, around the world you see some populists continue to thrive, Bolsonaro in Brazil, AMLO in Mexico.

In America, thank -- Donald trump was voted out reasonably narrowly. But you know, politics has become less about performance and more about tribal

identity.

QUEST: And finally, just on the U.S., Joe Biden wants 70 percent, which is close to herd immunity, but the number of vaccinations in the United States

is down by 25 percent, just about anybody who wants one now can get one by turning up anywhere.

Is this a concern for an administration that has put -- that needs to get the country to herd immunity levels?

ZAKARIA: Yes, because the issue we were just discussing is now the principle obstacle, tribal politics. There are people who simply will not

get a vaccine, believe that Joe Biden is evil, believe anything he says must be lies, and how do you get through that? I mean, you can have a well-

functioning governmental system, which Biden has put in place. The government is working admirably.

But how do you combat that kind of misinformation/disinformation? How do you combat a kind of politics that says if Biden wants to do it, it must be

wrong? So, here we have, you know, public health coming bang up against tribal politics.

QUEST: The book, "Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World" by Fareed -- there for all to see.

Thank you, sir. I appreciate you taking time. Thank you.

ZAKARIA: Always.

QUEST: QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, we will be talking to the head of FedEx Express Europe.

The company is adjusting its cargo business, and we'll get an idea of what GDP looks like as a result of what's being moved through FedEx, in a

moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:31:54]

QUEST: Shares in FedEx are a touch of their all-time high but they're still up almost 20 percent this year. Car -- air cargo numbers are down by the

same amount. But the amount of stuff that's being moved by the delivery companies is simply huge. There's been a difficult restructuring of FedEx

along the way in Europe. In January, it announced FedEx (INAUDIBLE) as many as 6000 jobs.

Part of the plans to integrate TNT, which you bought five years ago. Karen Reddington is with me. President of FedEx Express in Europe. Karen, it is

good to see you. First of all, let's deal with how you're managing not just the vaccine distribution, and do some very difficult times and difficult

places but also the sheer amount of stuff that's going -- that's being, you know, the online retailing that's now going through your system.

KAREN REDDINGTON, PRESIDENT, FEDEX EXPRESS IN EUROPE: Well, thank you for inviting me to speak here today, Richard. And maybe I can start with the

vaccines because obviously it's such a hot topic. I think the last time we spoke we were embarking on moving vaccines around the globe. And of course,

we're well-equipped to do this. We, you know, move time definite critical shipments around the globe every day, we serve 220 countries and

territories.

And since we last spoke, we've moved about 100 million vaccines just within the U.S. itself. And we're continuing to move vaccines across 25 different

countries. Everything from the vaccines themselves to the active pharmaceutical ingredients and the supplies needed to deliver vaccines

around the globe. And you're absolutely right. The market continues to boom, clearly, we're seeing that people are spending on goods rather than

services.

E-commerce growth has been immense. And with depletion of belly space, without passengers flying the skies, it really has been looking towards

freighters, like FedEx where we have over 680 aircraft, really, we've been in the skies keeping trade flowing, keeping supply chains open.

QUEST: Even if you said the freight charges have gone up during this and that there's been a complaint by exporters that the cost of sending goods

now has risen, which has given rise to some suggesting of course, the freight carriers are taking advantage of a situation. I'm not suggesting

that but I am asking have freight charges gone up and if they have, why?

REDDINGTON: Well, really, if you look at the dynamics of the situation, I mean, just look at the passenger cargo situation, it used to be that 70

percent of the air cargo that flew between Europe and the U.S. for example, used to fly in the bellies of passenger flights. And of course, with nobody

traveling for tourism or business all that capacity has disappeared. And so we're in a constrained capacity situation.

We're also seeing the fact of course that, you know, either people in our industry, you know, we've got additional charges as well. So, having to

provide equipment for COVID protection, you know, making sure that we're reorienting our network we've had to deal with different regulations across

borders.

[10:35:04]

REDDINGTON: So it's really the shortfall of capacity and the additional cost of moving around the globe in this environment, those two things have

really come to bear.

And again, as we said, huge demand for goods and goods like e-commerce have really driven continued growth.

QUEST: And briefly, Karen, and finally, your economists, your experts, does the forward sales, and the forward bookings for cargo space look strong for

the rest of the year?

REDDINGTON: Well, it's a patchy situation, if you look around the globe, what we're seeing is that Asia is really recovering strongly, it's pretty

much back to pre-COVID levels, Europe's coming back, but really won't hit the sort of levels that was till 2023. So, the growth story is there, we're

confident about growth. But it's going to be different around the globe.

QUEST: And we will check in with you several times. Now and then, of course, to see how things are going. I'm grateful for your time today.

Thank you.

REDDINGTON: Thanks very --

(CROSSTALK)

QUEST: Strong oil prices and rising demand out in profits at Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company beat expectations for its first quarter

earnings. The chief executive says there are reasons to believe even better days are coming. John Defterios is in Abu Dhabi he joins me now.

I was just looking John, a year ago at this time, give or take a day or three, it was negative. The price was negative in the market for Brent. So

we're a long way off that. But I mean -- I'll be back to the races?

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN BUSINESS EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: Well, I tell you, Richard, this is a pretty easy math equation for Aramco. And this latest

quarter, Q1. Oil prices worldwide were up about a third and their profits were up 30 percent, $21.7 billion. And we crossed $69.00 a barrel. So yes,

we've come a long way since we had that discussion of negative oil pricing for 24 hours. But it took a lot of work to get there, Richard, if you think

about it.

And this is something that Saudi Arabia was pushing all along with the Minister of Energy Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Crown Prince Mohammed bin

Salman and Amin Nasser, the CEO, he says there's more reason to be optimistic right now. But he's still acknowledged there's headwinds. And

what do we mean by that? We crossed 100 million barrels a day of demand in the third and fourth quarter of 2019.

And we're still five percent below that number. So we see demand starting to pick up. There's still cutting within the OPEC plus apparatus right now.

But they're starting to add back oil because they feel more optimistic about the second half of the year. Aramco made $21 billion, but it has to

pay the state $18.8 billion because of the dividends. So, it's a heavy burden to keep this hamster wheel going as oil prices start to rise.

Keep the productivity up, cut the costs right now, it still feed the beast in terms of the kingdom for the -- for the dividend.

QUEST: The dividend to the family and to the dividend to the infrastructure. All right, John. You and I have -- this is -- this is your

-- this is the last time we're going to speak with you being our emerging markets editor. You're off. You're moving back to London.

And for those of us who have worked with you for years, fast forward more than a quarter of a century you and I in one way or another. Let's just

enjoy a moment. Let's just watch first of all, how you and I at Davos have gone head to head.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: It could be prophetic to go all the way on this.

DEFTERIOS: I don't agree with that. I think you're going to have the key for what we have. We have to disagree about something.

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Go off set and disagree, please.

QUEST: Come with me where I'll put you right on a couple of issues.

(CROSSTALK)

QUEST: I should be so lucky.

DEFTERIOS: Whose show is this anyway?

QUEST: I'm glad you asked.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: But John, the thing I really have to show, I've only got a minute left. The thing I have to show viewers is this. This is John Defterios at

his finest. Have a watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: This is John Defterios. Where is that, John? You've got 10, 15, 20 seconds to tell me. Where is it and what are you doing?

DEFTERIOS: OK. With the hotel Europa in Davos, Richard. And after working, what, five, six days in a row, 12, 14 hours a day and then appearing on

your show very late at night. We do try to get at least one night there to kind of let it all out because of the stress of the week singing with Barry

Colson and the gang there at the hotel Europa. Something I think I've done with him for 25 years. You've been up there for about 20 of those I think.

And that was my 30th year at Davos. So we've had very good times. I'm not sure who you're going to share punches with in the future there in Davos --

QUEST: Oh, you'll be back. You'll be --

(CROSSTALK)

[15:40:00]

DEFTERIOS: Thanks a lot for the highlights.

QUEST: You'll be back in Davos in some shape or form. John Defterios, you are a gent, a scholar and a truly wonderful colleague to have work with for

so many years. Thank you, sir.

DEFTERIOS: Thank you. Thanks a lot, Richard.

QUEST: And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.

DEFTERIOS: It's always been a pleasure. I mean, I genuinely entered a team.

QUEST: Still going strong. Yes, I tell (INAUDIBLE) you'll be going on (INAUDIBLE) John Defterios, thank you. And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. And

have a dash for the closing bell at the top of the hour.

(BREAK)

QUEST: Hello. I'm Richard Quest. We now have a dash to the closing bell just two minutes away. Now what was a desperate day for the markets with

the tech stocks in particular. Look at the Dow. The Dow was down throughout the whole session, but now looks like it might actually go positive. I

don't know. It's still got a bit of a half to go. It fell after the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said interest rates may have to go up to

stop the economy from overheating.

The Dow is pulled back but look at the NASDAQ on the triple stack. And you'll see the NASDAQ has been hit hard. And although that's pulled back,

it was off over two percent -- 2.2 percent nowhere near as much. It's still showing heavy losses with Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, all

tumbling as investors look beyond the pandemic winners. Janet Yellen says growth brought on by the stimulus measures needs to be carefully moderated

to ensure the U.S. stays competitive.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JANET YELLEN, U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn't overheat, even

though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy. So, it could cause some very modest increases in interest

rates to get that reallocation. But these are investments our economy needs to be competitive and to be productive.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: And look at the Dow 30. You'll see how we end the day at the top. It's the Dow, it's Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson. It's good solid

companies at the other end. It's Apple, it's Salesforce, it's Microsoft. It's the pandemic stocks, so to speak. And a look in Europe and a quick

look at how European shares were falling during the course of the session. You can see the numbers all down with the worst losses in Germany with the

Xetra Dax.

That's the dash to the bell. I'm Richard Quest in New York. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead the bell is ringing. "THE LEAD" with Jake Tapper

starts right now. Good to see you.

END