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Quest Means Business
Venezuela Denounces Trump's Oil Tanker Blockade; Officials Give Update on Manhunt for Brown University Shooter; Trump's Chief-of-Staff Undercuts Message on Venezuela. U.S. Tariff Revenue Hits $200B Since Trump's Inauguration; Vanguard Predicts U.S. Economic Growth in 2026; Warner Brothers Discovery Officially Rejects Paramount Buyout Offer; "Paddington the Musical" Wow West End Audiences. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired December 17, 2025 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:16]
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST, "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS": The closing bell is ringing on Wall Street on this side. There you go. Ding! Ding!
Ding! The market shows we had a bit of a start and then it has been down and we are actually at the low point of the day. We will get into the
reasons why and the wherefores once the gentleman from TOV has hit the gavel, oh, the lady one, two, three! Good firm gavels. Trading is over.
Those are the markets and these are the main stories of the day. Oil prices climbing after President Trump orders a complete and total blockade of
sanctioned oil tankers near Venezuela.
The Oscars by next decade will abandon broadcast for streaming, and we have a guest with us in the studio from Peru to the West End. London's favorite
bear is singing and dancing, and we will have the director of "Paddington: The Musical," who will join me live.
We are live from London tonight on Wednesday, December the 17th. I am Richard Quest and I mean business.
Let me update you as to how we are going to move forward. There you have the shots coming to us from Rhode Island, from Providence, Rhode Island and
that is where the news conference is expected any time now. They've been fairly good at starting on time, supposed to start at 4:00 or thereabouts.
So as soon as it gets underway, we will take it to you, it is over, obviously, the Brown University shooting.
While we wait for that to start, anger and defiance in Venezuela after Donald Trump ratcheted up the pressure on the oil rich South American
country and its leader, Nicolas Maduro.
Donald Trump has ordered a total and complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of Venezuela. A blockade such as this, a severe
blow for the country's struggling economy.
Donald Trump is accusing Caracas of stealing oil and assets from the United States. It is an accusation that President Maduro has furiously refuted.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NICOLAS MADURO, VENEZUELAN LEADER (through translator): We tell the people of the United States our truth, and it is very clear, imperialism and the
Nazi fascist right-wing want to colonize Venezuela to take our wealth -- oil, gas, gold, iron, aluminum and other minerals.
We have sworn to defend our homeland, and in Venezuela, peace will always prevail.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Now, in the post from Truth Social, the U.S. President claimed "illegitimate Maduro regime is using oil from stolen oil fields to finance
themselves, drugs, terrorism, human trafficking, murder and kidnaping." He wants that oil, land and assets back and he threatened shock and
consequences if Caracas doesn't comply.
Kristen Holmes joins me from The White House.
I am -- I remain bewildered by this sort of onslaught against Venezuela, which relatively came out of nowhere and just seems to getting more fierce.
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Richard, it is getting more fierce. He is clearly escalating here. I will say that despite
the fact that he now for months has threatened these supposed land strikes inside Venezuela, I am told by White House officials there is really no
appetite to start what could be potentially a war inside of Venezuela.
Instead, this is just a continual threat and escalation against Maduro, with the hopes that he is going to step down. One of the things I reported
was shortly after that call that President Trump and Maduro had. On the call, White House official telling me that Trump gave him somewhat of an
ultimatum, saying that he was going to continue doing this. He was going to continue blowing up boats, for example, until Maduro left, and that it
would be best for maduro to walk away, to step down from his current position.
And clearly, that mentality has not changed here when it comes to Venezuela, but I will say again, this idea of a total blockade. Before
that, it was seizing the tanker. Before that it was blowing up these alleged narco-boats. All of this is still not to an escalation of actual
inside the country land strikes. So it does look as though The White House is trying to find other ways to put the squeeze on Maduro.
[16:05:01]
And one of the things we have been told very early on was it wasn't just about Maduro. At a certain point, it becomes about the people around him,
the people who are doing business with him, the other leaders of countries who they then, if they are affected, will put the squeeze on Maduro.
And when I spoke to one White House official just a week ago, they said they were starting to see cracks in some of the people around Maduro. Now,
no one could give me any examples of what exactly they are talking about, but they clearly think something in this strategy is working or going to
work.
QUEST: I am grateful. Thank you. Kristen, at The White House. Let's go now to Providence, Rhode Island. The news conference is underway.
HOLMES: Thank you.
MAYOR BRETT SMILEY (D), PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND: -- just a second from Colonel Perez and Attorney General Neronha.
But I want to reemphasize that in the Providence community and with the Governor's help, really, in the broader Providence community, we have
tightened security and we have neighbors looking out for one another and we will get through this.
I know our city and we are a resilient community, and we are a city that will support one another as we move forward in this scary time. Just
because you're feeling unsafe doesn't mean that that's invalid. We know that that's real.
But we are doing everything we can to both advance this investigation, but also to provide the support necessary as we move forward and take the first
steps together that we need to, as a city to start to recognize that kids need to go to school and people need to go to work. And we appreciate, the
courage and sometimes even tentative steps forward that we are taking as we start to move forward as a community.
At this time, I'd like to introduce Colonel Oscar Perez, who will give an update on the investigation. Thank you.
COL. OSCAR PEREZ, PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND POLICE CHIEF: Thank you. Mayor. Good afternoon.
We can please show the photo that we released earlier today. So we have released this enhanced photo earlier today and I want to be clear that this
is a person that we would like to speak with. We truly believe, based on the video footage that we have been watching for a few days that may have
relevant information to the investigation.
So we are asking the public that you can help us identify who this individual is as well if the individual themselves sees their picture,
please contact the police department.
As far as -- one thing that I want to mention, I want to urge you, the public, not to rely on or circulate A.I.-generated images that are
currently being shared on social media as they are not verified or credible. As well, the updates and information that you're getting will be
provided exclusively through this department's official channels.
I want to make sure that we make that happen, and please notify the public to make sure that that occurs.
I would also like to clarify and show a map, please. If you complete the map. So the map here that you see is actually a map of the area that we
have been intensively walking on the streets, canvasing the area. So as you see the blue image, yesterday, I mentioned that we need the public's
assistance to check their camera systems or any sort of video that you may have that could be helpful to us, that you, as you're watching it or as
you're reviewing it, you feel there may be something that we can use. Please notify us. And if you need any help with that, viewing those videos,
please also call us. We can come over and help you.
The green area, that's the color, that's where we have confirmed where the subject was prior to the shooting. The red areas, we have also confirmed
that that's the immediate area where he left after the shooting. And so this is the map that actually we have so far. We walked it all. We are
still actively investigating and we are still actively having agents, Providence Police officers, members of the State Police.
There are about nine federal agencies that are assisting us with this investigation, adding the State Police as well as the Providence Police and
other municipalities.
Again, I would like to reiterate, if you have any tips, please call the 272-3121 or the FBI link at FBI.gov/BrownUniversityShooting. Thank you.
SMILEY: Attorney General Peter Neronha for an update. Okay. Thank you, General.
[16:10:09]
One additional update from me and then we will be happy to take your questions. First, I want to just take a moment to recognize and honor the
memory of Ella Cook and Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov who are the two deceased victims from this tragedy and update you on the status of the survivors.
Yesterday we mentioned that one individual had been discharged. I am happy to report that another individual has been discharged today. That leaves
one survivor in critical, but stable condition and five in stable conditions.
The parents that I spoke with today all reported that their kids were improving, so this is a happy announcement. But I know the entire
Providence community, the entire state of Rhode Island, the Governor and I were together at a memorial service last night, mourn the loss and offer
our most sincere condolences to the Cook and Umurzokov families.
Following up on a note that the Colonel made with respect to A.I.-generated images and other misinformation, we have created an online folder with all
of the video and images that have been released, and we encourage, both members of the press, but also members of the community. We know lots of
people are sharing information, and we appreciate that. We think that will help with this investigation, but we encourage them to download and share
the videos and photos from the website that has been created so that you can ensure that you're sharing an accurate and verified photo and video.
That website is now live. It is ProvidenceRI.gov/tips. T-I-P-S. ProvidenceRI.gov/tips is an online file folder that has the videos and
photos that have been released to date, and it will be updated as we progress.
There has been lots of conversation up here about the heroic work of the hundreds of law enforcement professionals who remain hard at work 24 hours
a day and who are, in fact, making progress. I want to close with one, additional thank you tonight. All of those tip line calls are coming in to
the city's telecommunications department, the same folks who answer the 911 calls, and they, too, have been working tirelessly and I want to thank the
men and women at dispatch and at telecommunications for their diligence, everyone in the city of Providence truly has a role to play in this
investigation, and we are grateful for their assistance.
We will take your questions -- John.
REPORTER: Colonel, I have a question for the Colonel regarding the map.
As he is walking around, I want to establish actually, what's the earliest that this person of interest emerges? I believe you had said Saturday
morning at 10;30. But then someone else said maybe a couple of days earlier, but -- and I recognize that it fluctuates and this is evolving.
But as of right now, what's the earliest that this individual, to your knowledge, shows up on camera?
PEREZ: About 10:30 A.M. on the day of the of this tragic incident. However, just like anything else, I also mentioned yesterday that they do case
areas. They do a lot of prior check in for their crime, and so we believe, we truly believe that it could be the possibly he was there prior as well.
And so we want to make sure that we don't miss anything. And so that's why we are asking the public to help us to ensure within that map area that I
mentioned, with the borders between Wickenden, Brook, all those areas, Gano, that if you have a camera system to reach out to us.
REPORTER: I was in along High Street, Gano today. Tremendous number of federal officials literally going door-to-door. Would you -- how would you
describe -- I mean, it just seems that this is probably right now the most massive, intensive manhunt going on in the world.
PEREZ: I think I agree with you on that, John, and I definitely commend the men and women, obviously and all our federal partners. It is a lot of work
and it is intense, as you stated.
It takes a lot to be able to knock on doors. These videos, it's terabytes of videos that you have to look and I mentioned it yesterday, we are
looking for a moment that takes almost less than a second. And if you miss it, you're missing something that could be critical and important for us to
use.
And so yes, it is definitely an intense and I believe that it is probably the most intense investigation going on right now in this nation.
REPORTER: Colonel, the second person that you want to talk to, can you drill down at all on any interactions that you believe you may have had
with the main person of interest? Do you believe he talked to him? Did he - - how close was he to him? Any interactions? What can you tell us?
[16:15:04]
PEREZ: So yes, we have video footage that determines to us and the detectives that can tell that this person was in the vicinity where the
subject of interest was that we wanted -- that we actually have an interest in.
REPORTER: How close?
PEREZ: Close. Close enough that we feel that we need to speak with him to find out what the -- because videos don't speak. If you think about it, I
wish the video could speak, and then I will have the answers that we need, too, so that we can continue on this investigation.
So we are trying to find out exactly what it is, and that's why we need to speak with them.
SMILEY: Please --
REPORTER: Does this person, this new individual have anything to do with why the person of interest was seen running in the surveillance footage?
PEREZ: Again, I wish the videos could speak. We are trying to get those answers.
REPORTER: And have you found any items of interest during your search? Specifically clothing?
PEREZ: Nothing as we speak now.
SMILEY: Up front here.
REPORTER: Who among law enforcement or other first responders was first on the scene that day? And who came next?
PEREZ: So Brown University was on scene and then immediately the Providence Police Department within minutes was there.
SMILEY: Back there, green jacket.
REPORTER: So, you released a video from 2:16 on the day of the shooting, where we see the person of interest come into contact or near another
person. Is that the moment that you think this new person and the person of interest might have come close?
PEREZ: That's correct. That's around the area of Benevolent and Cook.
REPORTER: So behind the Rhode Island Historical Society, that corner of --
PEREZ: Right near that area, correct.
REPORTER: And you had some searches going on in North Attleboro today. Is that connected at all to this case?
PEREZ: I can't confirm. We are all over the place. If a tip comes in and it needs us to go down to Connecticut, we are going down to Connecticut. If a
tip comes in and tells us we've got to go to Boston, we are going to Boston.
SMILEY: Right there in the middle with the green jacket. Go ahead.
REPORTER: Is it possible that the second person could become a person of interest?
PEREZ: All we know is that that person was in the vicinity of the subject that we have an interest in, and we want to speak with him.
(REPORTER speaking in foreign language.)
PEREZ: Yes. So pretty much the question is just we can explain in Spanish exactly why we are looking for this individual. Why do we want to speak
with him.
(COL. OSCAR PEREZ speaking in foreign language.)
(REPORTER speaking in foreign language.)
(COL. OSCAR PEREZ speaking in foreign language.)
REPORTER: My question is have you found any DNA evidence from the crime scene or the area that you believe might belong to the shooter?
PEREZ: So we have found a lot of evidence that we are going to use and utilize and to hopefully guide us in the right direction in order to
identify the individual that we are looking for.
REPORTER: And have that been DNA evidence?
PEREZ: There is actual physical evidence, there is DNA evidence, there is a lot of evidence that we are collecting to ensure that we can find the
answer.
SMILEY: Pat.
REPORTER: A question for Attorney General Neronha. My understanding from your conversations over the last few days is that the Attorney General's
Office is taking the lead in terms of doing the investigation. My question is, what is the relationship between the Attorney General's Office and the
Rhode Island State Police because we haven't heard much from over the last few days in terms of who is doing what and what type of time commitment. I
do have a follow up.
PETER NERONHA, RHODE ISLAND ATTORNEY GENERAL: Yes. You know, I wouldn't say there were leading it. I think that we are working closely with our law
enforcement investigators. So you divide -- I think you can divide in a case like this the people involved in it, two groups, there are at least
five prosecutors that have been here since Saturday night. I have been here for a fair chunk of it myself, particularly after hours back at the office.
But what those prosecutors are doing, Pat, is asking questions helping to narrow and inform factual inquiries. Certainly, when there is a question,
all right, do we have enough to get a search warrant for a house or a car or a buccal swab from a person of interest? They are informing that.
So in any complex investigation, both federally and state side, prosecutors are embedded with the investigative team, and we bring our own heads to the
investigation because we have been involved in writing search warrant affidavits and arrest warrant affidavits and wiretaps for years.
REPORTER: And the Rhode Island State Police? What kind of role have they played in terms of investigating, and I still have a follow up.
NERONHA: Yes, the Colonel can answer that. But before you do, Colonel, I just want to make sure that I answer it as well.
One of the images that I have most keenly in my mind from a couple of nights ago is a State Police Lieutenant Derek Melfi talking to John
Primiano of the Providence Police, talking to Colin Woods of the FBI and identifying a certain piece of video evidence that's important to this
investigation and that's how intertwined and cohesive it is --
[16:20:14]
-- while prosecutors look on and engage at the same time.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So, I addressed this question a couple of days ago. So this is a very collaborative effort between all of law enforcement, between
the Providence Police, the State Police, all of our federal partners. We will continue to develop leads and follow that with the evidence that comes
along with that until this perpetrator is apprehended.
REPORTER: Thank you. I have one quick follow up for the gentleman from Brown University.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
REPORTER: Can you say for the record and with complete certainty that every bit of digital mass surveillance, whatever type of evidence was collected
by the infrastructure of Brown University has been turned over to the Providence Police Department, as well as the Attorney General's Office. Is
the Brown University withholding anything for the record?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For the record, we are cooperating 100 percent with law enforcement. We are turning over everything we have to assist in this
investigation.
REPORTER: You have a map and they are fully aware of whatever surveillance is being taken.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All materials are being provided to law enforcement.
SMILEY: Tom.
REPORTER: Thank you very much.
Regarding the new person of interest video, who may have had contact with the primary person? Does law enforcement not have the capability to
identify and find someone when you have, like, full face recognition without exposing them to public scrutiny? I have a follow up.
PEREZ: Yes, definitely. I mean, it is something where you have to investigate. If you don't know who the person is, it is very difficult and
especially if the image is blurred, it is very difficult to identify him.
And so if we had that ability to be able to identify him without the assistance of the public, we would. So at this point we do not and that is
why we are putting it out to the public to assist us in identifying who this person is.
REPORTER: And this this person --
QUEST: There we will leave away from the news conference. Former Washington, D.C. Police Chief Charles Ramsey is with me.
Chief, look, I am reading between the lines. On the one hand, they say, well, lots of evidence and bits of this being picked up. DNA collecting
evidence, but it doesn't sound like they've got a whole lot or at least they don't seem like they -- they are still trawling.
CHARLES RAMSEY, CNN SENIOR LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST: Yes, you're right. I mean, this is apparent that they don't have a lot right now. They really
need the public's help.
They went off in a direction with one individual early on in this investigation. They had to pick that up again and continue after they found
out that person had absolutely nothing to do with the murders. And so, without the public's help to try to identify this person and this second
person who apparently had some level of contact with who we believe, is a shooter -- whether he had a conversation, whether he was in close
proximity, they are not being very clear about that, but they must have seen something on video that brings them to this individual, to want to
bring him in for questioning.
QUEST: Fascinating, as you have told me on previous occasions with previous investigations, that it really does come down to the public. Somebody
seeing something, even if they don't think it is that significant at the time.
RAMSEY: It is, and it is also important that the members of law enforcement that are working, the task force is working, stay focused on the job at
hand.
You know, there is a lot of pressure in a case like this. I was the chief in D.C. during the D.C. sniper, for example. The longer these things go,
the more tension you start to experience behind-the-scenes because there is -- you know, pressure brings about tension.
And so they've got to stay focused and continue to follow every single lead that comes its way and not allow distractions to get in the way.
QUEST: Chief, I am grateful. Thank you. When there is more to report, we will be back with you.
President Trump has ordered a total and complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of Venezuela.
For months now, the Trump administration has been -- since the U.S. military is striking boats off the coast of Venezuela to stop the flow of
illegal drugs. The message was undercut this week by The White House chief- of-staff.
Susie Wiles told "Vanity Fair," the strikes are really more about Venezuela's leader. She says, "Donald trump wants to keep on blowing boats
up until Maduro cries Uncle."
Christopher Sabatini is the Senior Fellow for Latin American Affairs at Chatham House with me now.
[16:25:10]
What it about Maduro in Venezuela that has got Donald Trump so agitated? The social media posts talking about he wants to recover the assets that
were stolen and all of these things. Tell me more.
CHRISTOPHER SABATINI, SENIOR FELLOW FOR LATIN AMERICAN AFFAIRS, CHATHAM HOUSE: Richard, it is a good question and there are a number of reasons
that are driving this. The first one is, let's remember in 2019, the Trump administration, in its first term, tried to unseat Maduro, when it embraced
an opposition plan to create an interim democratic government after Nicolas Maduro had stolen the 2018 elections, and then it went ahead and recognized
that government convinced other governments to recognize this fictional Juan Guaido government, interim government and basically threw a lot of
weight behind it, including supporting mass demonstrations and tried to jam across a humanitarian convoy.
Donald Trump even welcomed Juan Guaido to State of the Union Address in 2019, and that fizzled out. The military didn't switch. The government
eventually just collapsed, and Juan Guaido now lives in Miami.
So when he came back into office, he said he had a grudge match. But he also during the campaign, if you remember, in 2024, he mentioned Venezuela
in two ways. The first was claiming erroneously that the Venezuelan drug gang, the Tren de Aragua had overtaken a village or town in Colorado, in
Aurora. And then he also claimed that President Nicolas Maduro had opened his mental institutions and his prisons in an attempt to flood the U.S.
with criminals and make the country more insecure.
So those domestic drivers and his past failures and a grudge match are driving it. But also with Marco Rubio, now as Secretary of State and acting
National Security Advisor, what we see is also a combination of a neocon Marco Rubio, who really for him, Cuba and Venezuela, the socialist regimes
are really enemy number one. So he is driving a lot of this as well, and he is driving it more towards regime change.
But you're right, the narrative has been changing all along.
QUEST: But the ability to blockade these sanctioned tankers, which will deal a near death blow to the economy, can they bring down, in your view,
maduro without boots on the ground?
SABATINI: Well, let's first say -- I mean, there has been numerous attempts and numerous rumors and in fact, you mentioned this earlier in your report
that there are beginning to be splits within them, but this has always been the case.
John Bolton very famously, in 2019, said that the inner circle around maduro were like scorpions in a bottle and that they wouldn't last long.
They are still there. And the truth is, is this will put a real squeeze, for example, 80 percent of Venezuela's exports are illicit oil that go
through these sanctioned boats. So if you close that down, as Donald Trump is promising, he will now do, you're going to basically kill the revenue,
but also Venezuela is a food importing country and a medicine importing country. So it will kill local commerce and service industries as well as
seriously reduce food.
So maybe it could provoke some splits, but it is going to cause some human suffering if this goes on for much longer too.
QUEST: I was noticing the words of the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum, who sort of -- it is a difficult area for other Central and
Latin American leaders who don't want to be seen to be allowing the U.S. to trump all over the region in this heavy handed fashion, but at the same
time, have no love lost for the dictatorship of Maduro.
SABATINI: That's exactly right. In fact, if you look at public opinion polls in Latin America, whether people would support a military action that
would remove Maduro, it is actually a majority of Latin American citizens agree.
But that isn't the case in the United States. According to a YouGov poll, less than 20 percent of Americans would support a U.S. invasion of
Venezuela. And part of that is, again, this changing narrative that Trump has used multiple times.
But yes, there is no love lost. I mean, more than eight million Venezuelans have fled the economic collapse largely caused by Nicolas Maduro. They are,
you know, while most of the drugs that enter the United States are not coming from Venezuela, as Donald Trump claims, there is a huge
transnational network, a human trafficking network, illegal gold mining network that is run by the Venezuelan government.
QUEST: I am grateful to you, sir. Thank you very much.
SABATINI: Thank you.
QUEST: As we continue tonight on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, Anna Cooban will be with me in a moment or three. We are going to be talking about tariffs,
tariffs and more tariffs. Anna will be next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:32:54]
QUEST: The headlines, Venezuela's president is warning the U.S. threats could put regional peace in jeopardy. Nicolas Maduro told the U.N.
secretary general on Wednesday that President Trump's call for a blockade on oil tankers from Venezuela is a threat to international law. The United
Nations is calling for a de-escalation in tensions between the two countries.
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said once again that his troops are ready to take Ukrainian territory by force. Territorial concessions remain
the sticking point, or one of them, in the peace talks. Russia's demanding Ukraine formally cede Crimea, the entire Donbas and part of the south,
including areas that Moscow has not captured militarily.
The Oscars will no longer be broadcast on TV starting in 2029. Instead, the Academy Awards will be shown live on YouTube. The streaming site says it
has signed an exclusive deal for global rights that will run through 2033. ABC, which is owned by Disney, has broadcast the Oscars for decades.
U.S. Customs officials say ending the so-called de minimis rule has produced a windfall in tariff revenue. Remember, the de minimis rule
basically says that if something was under a certain value, $200, you didn't even bother pulling in the paperwork, let alone collecting tariffs.
Now, Customs says they've collected $1 billion from packages worth less than $800. De minimis and the de minimis packages has been used by major
Chinese firms like Shein, Temu and Alibaba to legitimately avoid paying tariffs.
Overall, the Trump administration says tariffs have brought in $200 billion since inauguration day at a cost of economic disruption to other countries.
Anna Cooban is with me to put this into perspective.
[16:35:03]
Anna, the issue, of course, is the price of the gain versus the economic loss and the disruption that took place.
ANNA COOBAN, CNN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, there's been an enormous disruption across the whole world this year. 2020 has been
a bumper year in terms of trade disruption. And if you cast your mind back, Richard, to January, when Trump came into office for the second time,
countries were frankly quivering in their boots because of tariffs.
And they had every right to be because when Trump stood up with this board here in April and pronounced his reciprocal tariffs, they were so much
higher than many countries had been anticipating. Now, I could go on for days talking about all these different countries and the impact on them.
But I want to focus on three to give you a snapshot of the impact. So firstly, we can't not talk about China.
And if anyone thought that this trade war with China and the U.S. was going to really dampen China's trading power, I think that they were mistaken,
Richard, because look at this here. Chinese exports have actually surged. They've surged in Europe, up 10 percent over this year, up 30 percent in
Africa. And that more than compensates for this, you know, lowering of exports to the U.S. over 18 percent.
And China has also done something recently that no other country has done before. It's logged a $1 trillion trade surplus over the first 11 months of
the year. So again, kind of seeing that Trump's trade war in China seems to in some ways perhaps have backfired.
And then also, I want to point you to Switzerland. Now, I think many people were scratching their heads earlier this year when Trump announced a 39
percent tariff on Switzerland, arguing, you know, what has Switzerland ever done to the United States, you know, sends a lot of its gold or watches to
the U.S. But that 39 percent may have been lowered to 15 percent, but we can see some impact here in the third quarter of this year.
Its economy contracted by the most since the height of the pandemic. So things aren't going particularly well in Switzerland. The government did
cite trade volatility as a key reason behind this.
And then I also want to talk about Canada, the closest trading partner, the largest trading partner. Look at its manufacturing sector. It has shed
jobs. Clearly the impact of this trade war has been quite profound.
QUEST: I am grateful. Thank you very much indeed. The tariffs and the trade.
Vanguard says higher growth is on the horizon for the global economy, particularly the United States. The investment firm predicts the U.S.
economy will grow 2.5 percent next year. Investments this year in A.I. helped counteract headwinds from those tariffs that Anna was talking about,
and a slower slowing labor market.
Joe Davis is the global chief economist at Vanguard.
It is the undercurrents that are so difficult to understand and the direction that they will ultimately take us. But as I read what you're
saying, it's pretty solid for growth.
JOE DAVIS, GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST, VANGUARD: Yes. But I think you just really do a great job of underscoring those crosscurrents, because that's
where we sit. I mean, you were just mentioning tariffs and trade. You see that with sticky inflation, even the U.S., the uncertainty this year was a
factor in a cooling labor market. Yes, you have to balance that with the heavy investment were seeing in the A.I. space. And there's going to be
missteps there, too. But when we calculate all those crosscurrents, you start to see upside risks emerge, particularly in the back half of the
year.
QUEST: The phrase I tend to like is sort of Mohamed El-Erian on A.I., where he talks about a rational bubble. We sort of all know what he means, that
A.I. is going to be a dominant force in production. It just may not be the bonanza in the time scale, at least in the timescale that the market would
like it to be in.
DAVIS: Yes. Well, I think that's one of the ironies of, if you're listening and you're an investor, the ironies of investing during a technology cycle
is that you can actually have disappointment in the very sector that can lead to ultimately changes in the economy. We saw this with the computer
and with the internet. You know, transform the economy. But nevertheless, we had drawdowns for a time in the technology sector. And we see a risk
there in the stock market. It's really the one part of the equity market that were concerned about.
QUEST: OK. But I guess those of us who've got gains and don't want to see them go, but at the same time, it's the strategy that you deploy next year.
And we're not worried about a total collapse of the market per se. But where do you think the best gains will be seen, both domestically --
DAVIS: Yes.
QUEST: Go ahead.
DAVIS: Yes. And I think what we're really excited about and we've studied hard over all past tech cycles and what the evidence is fairly clear.
[16:40:03]
And that is whether you're bullish on A.I. or you're skeptical, it leads you to the same investment strategy which is deploying new capital, new
funds into areas outside of technology. If you're bullish on A.I., it's because other companies outside of Silicon Valley will start to benefit
from this. And of course, if you're skeptical and think it's gone too far or it'll disappoint, then your defensive.
So it's both a defensive and offensive strategy. You have to give it a little bit of time, but after the euphoria wears off, whether the A.I.
transformed the economy or not, the investment implications are pretty clear.
QUEST: What about other markets developed and emerging? There's a view now that the best gains in 26th may be offshore of the United States. I mean,
Europe, obviously, with defense stocks, but I'm thinking also about emerging markets.
DAVIS: Yes. And, you know, again, this is part of our thesis. And, you know, fair disclosure, we've been saying this for two or three years. There
was always a technology angle to this and the spreading of transformative technologies. It will not just stay in one country. And now, again, are we
early on this thesis? You know, we're going on three years, the past two years the U.S. markets steadily outperformed.
But when we look out, if you have five or six years ahead of you, you want to start deploying capital outside of the U.S. It's not pessimistic on the
U.S. This is just how financial markets tend to work. And we're fairly -- we have high conviction in this outlook.
QUEST: OK. It begs the question, your last answer begged the question which countries?
DAVIS: Well, I think emerging markets, you mentioned it. I think there is where I would be first thinking about. There's headline risk with the
tariffs. Your story just mentioned it. But there's an A.I. both producing with China and also consuming in parts of the market that really were --
their prices were depressed with the tariff uncertainty. So that's where I would think about.
QUEST: It's an interesting and optimistic forecast for next year. I'm grateful, sir. Thank you very much. Have a good Christmas yourselves. Very
grateful. Thank you.
DAVIS: Thank you. Likewise.
QUEST: As we continue in just a moment, I'm going to be joined by the director of "Paddington the Musical." It is the show that's delighting
audiences in London's West End. It's doing extremely well. The critics love it, and he's going to explain how do you recreate a bear on the stage.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:45:09]
QUEST: As you know, we love talking about our own company. The directors of Warner Brothers Discovery, WBD, our parent, are telling shareholders to
reject the hostile bid from Paramount. They say the offer of $30 a share is inadequate for the entire company, and they're questioning whether the
Ellison family will actually back up. You put your money where your mouth is.
The better deal is still, they believe, the offer from Netflix that buys Warner Brothers Film and Studios, along with HBO and HBO Max, spins off the
rest of us into the big blue yonder.
Here's where all their stocks landed today. We're down just 2.5. Netflix is up. Paramount has really got clobbered there. They're down 5 percent.
Now the fight isn't over by any means. Paramount says it's offering better value and certainty and says that all the money is lined up and the
decision is with the shareholders. By the way, January the 8th is the deadline, I believe, for WBD shareholders to tender their stock to
Paramount if they're so minded.
Sara Fischer is media correspondent for Axios and one of our media analysts.
Sara, this is nothing new. We expected this decision. Not really but it's very -- it's a bit weird this sort of reasoning, which sort of -- not sort
of, it basically says the Ellison financing is dodgy and be careful, you may not get your money.
SARA FISCHER, CNN MEDIA ANALYST: That's exactly right. So when the board was evaluating the initial solicited offer from the Ellisons on December
1st, there were three things that stood out to them that were problematic. The first being that they wanted to ensure that the Ellisons would backstop
financing if one of their funding partners pulled out. And what we've come to find is that that backstop was a little bit fluffy.
It was coming from a revocable trust, which the Warner Brothers Discovery board felt was not solid.
QUEST: Right.
FISCHER: Two, they wanted assurances that the foreign sovereign wealth funds that were providing $24 billion in equity funding were not going to
get governance or voting rights. That was key to make sure it would pass regulatory muster. And then the third thing was with these unsolicited
bids, Richard, those were a combination of cash and stock. You've seen with Paramount, the stock has gone down so that made them wary.
QUEST: Right.
FISCHER: So all this collectively is what led the board to go with Netflix.
QUEST: OK. But Paramount isn't just going to fold its tent and go home. I mean, they've still got the offer out there, although probably at its
current rate would not be accepted by many shareholders. So they can sweeten if they want to. What's the view on the street?
FISCHER: You got three options if you're Paramount. One, you continue to fight, as you noted, to get those shareholders to tender their shares over
to Paramount at $30 a share. But the street does not have incentive to do it, Richard, because for them, if this goes to a bidding war and the rate
possibly goes up past $30, they'd be stupid to settle for a $30 offer. And so that's one thing we're following.
I haven't seen Vanguard or any of the big institutional step in and advise their shareholders to tender.
QUEST: Right.
FISCHER: Now, Paramount could also just withdraw entirely, which I don't think that's going to happen. I think what's likely is that after this,
they're going to take a look and see how many shareholders they can get to tender before they figure out whether or not they want to go for it.
QUEST: All right.
FISCHER: And up their bid. If they do, it would force Netflix also to up its bid.
QUEST: Can I just ask you quickly? Everyone is a flutter and a gossip over this business of the Oscars going to streaming. I mean, it's quite a
bombshell that. But by the way, it's good evidence to Netflix that they don't have a monopoly in a sense. YouTube has got the Oscars, but it is a
sea change and it's a sign of the times.
FISCHER: Huge sea change. We've seen smaller award shows, Richard, go over to streaming. The Screen Actors Guild Award, the Country Music Awards went
to Amazon, but this is the big behemoth. This is the most popular award show in the world. And one thing that's notable is when we think about
these award shows, they're typically distributed domestically only on our broadcast.
What this does is it makes our award shows available to two billion people globally. That's a huge opportunity, not just for the Academy of Motion
Pictures and Sciences that puts on the Oscars, but for all of Hollywood that is increasingly trying to get more market share in overseas box
offices.
QUEST: I'm grateful to you. Thank you very much for joining us tonight. We'll certainly talk a great deal more about the Warner Brothers Discovery.
Thank you.
[16:50:01]
Now, tonight, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, we are in London, where theater goers have been swept off their feet by "Paddington."
"Paddington the Musical" opened last month in the West End. It is an absolute smash hit. The lead character has long been popular in Britain,
most famously -- most recently, of course, well, with queen, the late queen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PADDINGTON: Thank you for having me. I do hope you're having a lovely jubilee.
ELIZABETH II, QUEEN OF THE UNITED KINGDOM: Tea?
PADDINGTON: Oh, yes, please.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Now, while the movies use CGI to portray Paddington, the musical is drawing praise for its lifelike representation of the bear.
Luke Sheppard is the director of "Paddington the Musical."
So there's a real bear in the sense of there's a live -- well, you tell me.
LUKE SHEPPARD, DIRECTOR, "PADDINGTON: THE MUSICAL": Well, how we want audiences to come to the show is to see Paddington on stage. This is his
musical. But behind the scenes, it's brought together by two amazing artists. Their names are Arty and James, and they work hand in hand to
bring him to life through puppeteering on stage and also off stage through the voice and bringing the face to life as well.
QUEST: Right. But there's actually somebody there.
SHEPPARD: Oh, yes. There is. Yes. Arty brings the bear to life on stage, but you wouldn't know it. It really feels like Paddington is there, living
and breathing in front of you.
QUEST: Why did you -- why was the need for Paddington on stage, do you think?
SHEPPARD: Well.
QUEST: That's a tricky one in a sense.
SHEPPARD: It's a great question because the books are amazing.
QUEST: Yes.
SHEPPARD: The films are phenomenal.
QUEST: Yes.
SHEPPARD: But there is nothing like the magic of theater. And we think he deserves his own musical because he brings people together. And that's what
the theater does brilliantly. And I love watching the show every night. There's over a thousand people and you hear them laugh, you hear them gasp,
you hear them cry. All because of that little bear.
QUEST: The critics have, I mean, there's a certain sort of, there's no sourness about the project. Some people say it could have been better than
this or better. That's a critics job. But they do universally say it works extremely well.
SHEPPARD: Thank you. Yes. The response has been overwhelming. It felt like a huge responsibility taking this on. I started work on the show about five
years ago.
QUEST: Really?
SHEPPARD: Yes, it's been a long, long journey for us.
QUEST: Every now look at Broadway and the West End, because you've got both going, you've got both going at the moment, Broadway and the West End. How
would you compare the two now between New York and London?
SHEPPARD: Yes, I'm very lucky. I've got a show on Broadway at the moment called "And Juliet" and a show here, Paddington. And really, I think
audiences are the same. They want to come to something that feels energizing, that feels entertaining, but also ultimately makes them think
and makes them connect to emotions. That's what theater does brilliantly for us.
QUEST: You know, we're a business show. Well, most days sometimes. And we always hear that it's very difficult to make money on Broadway and on the
West end, simply because the costs are so great. And even if you have a big hit, you've got to go going a good while before you're really in the money.
SHEPPARD: That is true. And the costs of putting a show on like this are huge. And yet, perhaps on Broadway they're even higher. But if you've got a
show that people want to see, then you learn about that very quickly at the box office.
QUEST: And what needs to happen for both of these great theater cities, do you think, in terms of the next stage? Because we've had -- we've been
through a revival, I mean, this is not a revival. This is new stuff. But we've had the revivals and indeed "Starlight Express." We've got the
revivals and we've got a certain amount of new and you've got fringe and off fringe and fringe so far away. And how would you say is the robustness
of health of theater?
SHEPPARD: I think theaters never been stronger.
QUEST: Really?
SHEPPARD: Yes. Particularly in those two cities you're talking about. You know, it's a little harder for some of those theaters in cities around the
country because funding is in a much more difficult place. But this is one of the oldest art forms of all time. And so I have to believe that its
beating heart will be around forever. If we can keep finding stories that connect to people, if we can keep finding stories that command people to
come into these buildings, to share that shared experience, and really welcoming in new audiences as well.
QUEST: Does -- pardon the phrase. Does "Paddington the Musical" have legs to travel, do you think?
SHEPPARD: Well.
QUEST: Oh, is that the -- is that the question at the moment?
SHEPPARD: At the moment, we've just been very focused on telling his story here in London. But I was just over in New York, and it was amazing to see
how many people wanted to talk about Paddington, wanted to hear about how it's going in London, had seen about him on social media and, yes, so watch
this space I think is the best way.
QUEST: I'm very grateful for you for coming in tonight and bringing the bear.
SHEPPARD: Thank you so much.
[16:55:02]
QUEST: Thank you very much indeed.
And we will take a "Profitable Moment" after the break. Yes, I know we will. We will.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Tonight's "Profitable Moment" I could wax lyrical about trade and tariffs and all that sort of stuff. We could talk about Venezuela and that.
But I think instead of that, let's just talk about Paddington and -- because it's not often we get a chance to maybe wax lyrical on something
like this.
The reality is when we talk and look about things like Paddington and the success of theater in the West End, you've got to ask yourself, what is it
about Paddington that is so successful? What was it about the books that we -- I read as a child? Michael Bond wrote it originally in the 1950s, and
they just tootled along. And it was always that sort of bear. And then you moved forward and you get the television programs and you get the movies,
and now you get the musical.
And I think what it is, because we spent a lot of time in the office talking about it, I think what it is is Paddington is in a weird sort of
way the sort of person we all want to be. We all sort of know we fail spectacularly at some of the things that we do and create chaos and
disasters sometimes wherever we go. But our heart is in the right place. Our aims are good. We want the best for all, and we're prepared to put
whatever we can into it if only we were given the chance.
The fact that it all might fall apart spectacularly seems somewhat irrelevant. And I think that's why we like Paddington, because Paddington
shows what we can do if we try. And maybe if we actually get it right, the musical.
Let me tell you another part of great programing. We will be at Highclere Castle on Friday night. That is of course, "Downton Abbey." It's Highclere
Castle. In reality, we will be there with the ladyship and the earl of Carnarvon on Friday night. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
I'm Richard Quest in London tonight. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead -- go on Paddington -- I hope it's profitable.
END
