Return to Transcripts main page
Quest Means Business
Trump: We Are In Negotiations With Iran; Conflict Weighs On European Economies; NTSB Gives Update On Runway Collision; Trader Wins Nearly $1 Million On Polymarket With Accurate Iran Bets; Explosion At Texas Refinery Puts More Pressure On Gas Prices; OpenAI To Discontinue Its Sora Video Platform; Coffee Prices Rise As Iran War Rattles Global Supply Chains. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired March 24, 2026 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:21]
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST, "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS": The closing bell is ringing on Wall Street, and it has been a bit of a topsy-turvy sort
of day. We started off lower, then we went up a bit, and I think the gyrations are largely on the back of comments that the President has made
about the war with Iran at the moment, one and two and one, two, three, four -- trading is over. The markets are closed in the U.S. and these are
the main events.
The U.S. President says the war has been won as an Iranian source confirms outreach with Washington. Federal aviation investigators say there were
only two air traffic controllers working in the tower at LaGuardia when the plane collided with a fire truck. What is the implications of that? We will
discuss.
And news analysis suggesting someone made nearly a million dollars on prediction markets from a series of remarkably accurate bets about Iran.
The company who is behind the claims will be on tonight's program.
We are live in New York, Tuesday now, March the 24th. I am Richard Quest, and I mean business.
Good evening. We begin tonight, President Trump says Iran's leaders want to make a deal as he affirms that negotiations are underway. He was speaking
earlier when he said Iran agreed to never have a nuclear weapon.
And his top people, including J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, are involved. Iran had previously said no negotiations are ongoing.
Now, an Iranian source says outreach has taken place. The U.S. President says current leaders gave the U.S. a big gift. There was no other words to
say other than it was worth a lot of money.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: We are dealing with a group of people that I think turn out, and the present, the gift
they made to us was very significant and they said they were going to do it and it happened. And they are the only ones that could have done it.
Jennifer?
REPORTER: Was it related to the Strait of Hormuz and the flow of --
TRUMP: Yes. It was related to the flow and to the Strait, yes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Jim Sciutto is in Tel Aviv. Good evening, Jim.
Let's parse this out bit by bit.
First of all, negotiations, but according to Iran, it seems these were at the behest or at least these talks, the outreach came from the United
States.
JIM SCIUTTO CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: That is CNN's reporting at this point. And listen, what we have to work with are
what Iranian -- an Iranian official is telling our Fred Pleitgen and what the President is saying publicly. But we also have comments of others, and
those include officials here in Israel.
Earlier today, following Trump's first discussions of peace talks with Iran, the Israeli Defense Minister says that its attacks on Iran continue
with full force. Another Israeli official told CNN that they do not see a serious negotiating posture from Iran at this point, even if they are
talking, and then, as we've been experiencing here, Richard, the crossfire continues.
Just a short time ago, there was an air raid warning here in Tel Aviv, and we watched just above our heads here as an Iranian cluster missile exploded
over Tel Aviv skies. And those cluster munitions impacted on this city and caused damage.
At the same time, Israel has been expanding its operations inside Southern Lebanon. So the President is talking a big diplomatic game here, which may
lead to something, but we should be aware that Israel's view is that they are skeptical and that in the meantime, even as President Trump talks in
those terms, the crossfire continues.
QUEST: Okay. But, Jim, this gift -- I mean, is it this reported idea that Iran will let noncombatants traffic through? In other words, Gulf traffic
through the Strait, you know, sort of a relaxing because we know it was a big gift. It is worth a lot of money, according to the President and in
response to the question, it relates to the Strait.
SCIUTTO: Yes, listen, it is possible and we will only know for certain when those ships start going through and when we have more confirmation. But I
will say this, Richard, one thing that would retain right is Iran's control over the Strait. That would be Iran's power to say these ships can go
through and that is at least not something that President Trump, the U.S., Israel or other nations in the region certainly said they would be
comfortable with at the start of this war.
[16:05:07]
One might say that if that were the case, then Iran gained leverage from this war, an ability to open and close the Strait that it didn't have
prior.
QUEST: So the mood in Tel Aviv, now you've arrived there. What are you finding? How are people? And I mean, weary, I am sure. But what else?
SCIUTTO: Well, I will tell you this, that folks listen to these air raid warnings right, when they come and we get them in our phones, and folks are
quite responsible here about having the apps in their phones that give them the warning in advance.
When those air raid sirens sound, folks go into the shelters. And what you're seeing on the air right now, that is the cluster munition that Iran
fired just a little over an hour ago over Tel Aviv, exploding like something like a firework. But each of those little lights, right, is
another -- is a separate, smaller munition which falls to the ground, which is proven largely impossible for Israel's even formidable air defenses to
neutralize.
And when those fall to the ground, they cause damage. So, it is important that folks go into the shelters, because if they are not there when they
strike, then people could get hurt and people have been hurt today because there have been multiple missiles fired and some have gotten through.
So, you know, the facts on the ground to date belie the rosy diplomatic picture. That doesn't mean it can't change over the coming days. But we
know at least the official Israeli position is that they publicly remain skeptical of the prospects for these talks.
QUEST: I am grateful. Thank you, Jim. You'll be with us, of course, in just an hour or two from now.
The energy shock is one aspect. Mohamed El-Erian is warning of the financial and potential financial shock. In "The Financial Times," he is
pointing out countries in the GCC have generated a current account surplus of more than $800 billion, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven -- well,
a lot of zeros.
It has invested in A.I., life sciences and the like. Now when they're under Iranian attack, the money may dry up, and that will lead to financial
challenges.
Mohamed El-Erian is the Professor of University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Chair of Gramercy Funds Management, chief economic adviser at
Allianz.
More importantly, he is a good friend of QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, and therefore we say thank you for joining us tonight.
Look, the energy is one thing, but this dislocation, because the Gulf countries have so enmeshed themselves in the global economy, M&A, stock
markets, bond markets that if they get into some financial difficulties, that's going to have implications.
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, ECONOMIST AND ADVISOR, ALLIANZ: Yes, and the point is, it is beyond energy and it is beyond other supply chains like fertilizers,
helium. It is also financials. The GCC has evolved. Those countries have evolved into the best of investors. Why? They have patient capital. They
are very sophisticated. And they have developed long term relationships.
Add to that a lot of money to put to work and the rest of the world has benefited enormously.
Now, some of that money is going to have to be diverted back into the economies to rebuild energy infrastructure, to protect the domestic
population. So, the rest of the world is going to see less of those countries' savings that go into investments in the rest of the world.
QUEST: That could have ripple impacts. But I suppose there is -- you know, there is an argument that would also say, well, yes, but if they are
rebuilding their own infrastructure, they are still spending money, and that money will flow out, but it won't flow in the same way to the deal
making that have been done before.
EL-ERIAN: Exactly. It will go somewhere else, and remember, this comes at a time when already a ton of bonds are being issued for large government
deficits in advanced economies, for A.I. needs, and we have three areas of stress that are present in private credit, where there is further evidence
of stress. We are seeing leverage in certain parts of the market. And in addition, there are still worries about A.I., financial excesses.
So what we have is that when that sort of money is no longer coming in to the market that it used to be, it can and I say it can, it is a risk. It is
not a sure thing and are with existing fragilities.
QUEST: You were having some trouble here. Your line is breaking up a bit, but we will persevere for one more. And is this crisis -- I mean, what I
find -- both the very difficult and at the same time fascinating aspect is the market gyrations depending on whether the President says things are
looking better, things are looking up or not.
[16:10:07]
The talks are there or I am going to blow them to Armageddon. It all makes sense, the market. But you'd have thought that they might be just
marginally more mature about knee jerk reaction.
EL-ERIAN: I agree, but the market is obsessed with the endpoint. I think the journey to that endpoint may be as important over the longer term. How
much structural damage has been created already, how much of an inflation hit are we going to have, and how much of an employment hit are we going to
have?
The journey to whatever endpoint we end up with may be really important. And I agree with you, the market isn't focusing on that.
QUEST: Okay, last question, and this is the how long is a piece of string dreaded question. How long do you think we've got before -- with this war -
- before we are talking medium to long-term financial implications.
And the reason I ask, Mohamed is, everybody says it all depends how long it lasts and then you go on to the next question and say, well, I get that
bit. But you know, are we talking if it lasts a month or three months, whatever. What's your gut feeling on this?
EL-ERIAN: So I don't think in terms of duration, I think in terms of tipping point. The first tipping point was from disruptions that can be
fixed quickly to structural damage.
QUEST: Right.
EL-ERIAN: When the war crossed into damaging infrastructure, that happened in the third week. The next tipping point is when actual supplies, actual
quantity, do not get to the countries in Asia in particular. If that happens, and I suspect we are within a couple of weeks of that, if that
happens, then you're going to see an enormous economic impact because it is not just about the price, but it is also about the quantity available.
QUEST: I am grateful, sir, good to see you, joining us tonight from Greenwich, Connecticut. Thank you, Mohamed El-Erian.
Now, Republican lawmakers say they are uniting around a deal to restore TSA funding. For now, it is just miserable. We will talk about that after the
break.
QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: We are learning a little more about Sunday's deadly collision at New York's LaGuardia Airport. The passenger jet was coming in to land on runway
four. It hit a fire truck that had just been cleared to cross the runway.
[16:15:10]
The two pilots of the Air Canada regional jet were killed, according to the National Transportation Safety Board. The chair, Jennifer Homendy, she says
two air traffic controllers were on duty at the time, and the board has long been concerned about late shifts, the so-called midnight shift for
those employees.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JENNIFER HOMENDY, NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD CHAIR: It is also common practice across the national airspace, where you would have two
controllers in the tower cab during the midnight shift. The midnight shift, as a reminder, is one that we have many times at the NTSB raised concerns
about with respect to fatigue. Again, I do not know, we do have no indication that was a factor here, but it is a shift that we have been
focused on in past investigations.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Pete Muntean is with me at LaGuardia.
Pete, good evening. Looking now, I mean, the facts are clear. You know what happened and how this happened, if you will, the logistical aspects. It is
all about what happened underneath and all about the two controllers and who was doing what.
One thing that has surprised me is that she says, we are confused about who was controlling the ground traffic. In other words, she specifically
focused on that. Now there are only two of them, so one of them was doing both or not, as the case may be.
PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Yes, the question here is why that is going to be so hard to figure out and I have asked the NTSB Chair
that specifically, who was responsible for ground control? Meaning the movements of airplanes while taxiing and vehicles on the ground during a
very high workload period here at LaGuardia Airport, because those fire trucks were responding to an incident unrelated on the other side of the
airport, taxiing across or going across runway four here behind me, back to the airport firehouse.
So there still needs to be some clarity from investigators on whether one person was doing ground control or whether the other person was doing
ground control. And that is a really, really big question here that they can't really figure out just yet.
The NTSB is going through time cards, sign in sheets. There, of course, have interviews from the controllers, which are supposed to happen at 4:00
P.M. Eastern Time, about 16 minutes ago, and they are also just trying to get the data.
They'll go through the tapes in the tower to figure out a bit more information, and they will be able to match voices, too. It is a
painstaking process, Richard, but they will be able to get to the bottom of it.
QUEST: All right, They cleared the Air Canada to land, two minutes and 17 seconds before the incident. It was the second aircraft to land. So this is
unusual. This is an anomaly of American air traffic control. Planes are cleared to land much earlier than they would be out of a European airport,
where you're literally the instant plane to land, cleared to land, often only seconds before you're over the threshold.
But my point is this: You're expecting the traffic, the air traffic controller, when he has then got to clear the truck to remember that he has
cleared the Air Canada two minutes ago, cleared to land.
MUNTEAN: Yes, and the elapsed time is quite long. I have to tell you, as a pilot and flight instructor, I don't love the practice in the United
States. The standard practice by the Federal Aviation Administration, clear planes to land before the runway is truly clear. I think it is a bit of a
misnomer. That to me personally as an analyst and pilot, but as a reporter, I can tell you the NTSB is still trying to build this timeline, and they
have laid out a new timeline from the cockpit voice recorder in the regional jet, in the Air Canada express flight.
And we have down to the second when they were cleared to land. But there is a big question to ask here. When that emergency was taking place on the
runway and the controllers became maybe focused on that or went down the rabbit hole, if you will, on trying to fix that situation and clear
vehicles to get them off to the other side of the airport, why did they just not pause things? Why did they not just put that Air Canada flight in
a hold, a holding pattern, and keep them in the air for a few minutes longer?
QUEST: Sure.
MUNTEAN: You can't lay all the blame though here at the air traffic controllers. And remember, the simple thing is that this truck, this fire
truck was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The controller, according to the tapes, realized their mistake and tried to stop that truck before
continuing onto the runway before this awful collision.
QUEST: Two more things just to get, first of all, now I am going to combine your reporter and analyst and pilot. Are you surprised that a piece of
equipment like a fire truck, not a baggage cart, a fire truck that's crisscrossing the airport and the runways does not have a transponder
within it?
[16:20:08]
MUNTEAN: It is surprising because we see more ground equipment at airports being equipped with technology all the time to be able to show their
location in real time, not only to air traffic controllers, but also AV geeks at home watching on their computers or their iPhones.
You know, it is a significant thing and the NTSB chair, underscores the need for better technology in the U.S. airspace system as there is a push
and ask for about $50 billion from Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to upgrade the equipment here.
You know we have seen time and time again, airport ground vehicles involved in what are called runway incursions. These near collisions exactly what we
saw here at LaGuardia. We've seen them at Baltimore-Washington Airport. We've seen them on the West Coast. This is not something that is new. This
is not something that is unusual.
The warning signs have been there and it is now up to investigators to figure out exactly what went wrong and they can only recommend changes to
the Federal Aviation Administration. Oftentimes, that takes an act of Congress. We will see if they rise to the occasion and make some
significant changes as the result of this crash.
QUEST: Pete Muntean. I am grateful. Thank you, sir. We will talk more. There are a couple of more questions I've got, but I am out of time, so I
will have to just stack them up for another day.
Pete Muntean at LaGuardia.
It looks like he was just in time.
We've been keeping an eye on the long U.S. airport security lines because of the funding fight. The situation in Atlanta marginally improved from
when you and I were talking, when the line stretched out the building. The change has a lot to do with the normal ebb and flow of passenger traffic.
Trying to board a flight in Houston. They've been warned it might be four hours. Ed Lavandera has been speaking to the travelers there.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm frustrated.
ED LAVANDERA, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Absolutely.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've got about an hour to catch my flight here, so. But all this is unnecessary.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yesterday, we got caught, though. We had to miss our flight. But today it had been crazy.
We've been here -- we've been here for like three hours. But now they say we have about another hour. I hope we can hurry up and get out of here,
though.
LAVANDERA: Yes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Now remember, TSA agents are working without pay at the moment, so around 10 percent are absent, but they are working without pay because
Congress has yet to allocate the money.
Democratic lawmakers first want reforms to immigration. Top Republicans say their party is uniting behind a plan to fund other parts of Homeland
Security.
Annie Grayer is on Capitol Hill.
Now, Annie, I want to strip out here what we are seeing at the airports to what is actually behind this dispute, because when you tell people what's
behind it, their view somewhat changes in a sense, because Democrats are saying they are fighting for proper immigration reform, and it is the
Republicans that refuse it. That's really -- I mean, that's sort of the bottom of it.
ANNIE GRAYER, CNN CAPITOL HILL REPORTER: Well, that's right, Richard. DHS controls so many parts of government that impact our daily lives. It is not
just immigration enforcement. It is also TSA agents, and that is why the long lines at airports are only getting worse as TSA agents are going
without pay, because the DHS has remained shut down for many, many days.
And that is why there is all this pressure on Capitol Hill to figure out how to come forward and make a deal on DHS funding, because even if
Democrat and Republican lawmakers can agree on ICE and that specific part of DHS, there is broad support for making sure that the TSA agents get
paid.
QUEST: But if we are talking high politics here, which, of course, you're on Capitol Hill and that's sort of your -- the stock and trade -- the
Democrats would say they are fighting for a mega principle on immigration, even if they do have to -- I mean, what I am trying to get at is there is
something behind this more than just yah boo, let's try and make life difficult.
GRAYER: There are real policy differences. I mean, that is why Democrats are so dug in. If you remember ICE's presence in Minnesota, in Minneapolis,
specifically where we saw the killing of two Americans, that is what started this outrage and why Democrats felt like they had to fight back and
say that they would not provide any further funding for ICE without major policy reforms.
Now, the latest deal on the table from Republicans who met with Donald Trump yesterday about would fund the main pieces of DHS would not include
funding for ICE. And so that is what Democrats are debating right now is will they support a deal that funds all the other parts of DHS agency so it
would it would greatly reduce the lines that you're seeing at airports, because TSA agents would come back to work, they would be fully paid and
then leave the ICE funding as a separate matter. That's what is currently up for debate right now. We are waiting for Democrats to come out with a
response to the Republican offer. So that's where things stand on Capitol Hill and why you're seeing these lines on the airports continue to persist
in the meantime.
[16:25:10]
QUEST: Classic political fudge to try and sort of get rid of the pressure cooker, but not necessarily solve the bigger problem.
I am so grateful. Thank you, Annie on Capitol Hill. Thank you.
Anonymous trader has made nearly a million dollars from a series of Polymarket bets, our reporting, exclusive, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: There you are. Together, we've got a lot more. Another 30 minutes or so of QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. Aren't we lucky? I will be talking to the CEO
of an analytics firm that detected the Polymarket user who allegedly made nearly a million, well, he made a million dollars or they made a million
dollars on a series of accurate bets about Iran.
And oil prices tend to rise and fall like a feather. I will speak to the CIO of Pickering Energy about the lasting effect, only after the headlines,
because this is CNN, and on this network, the news always comes first.
U.S. investigators say there were two air traffic controllers on duty at LaGuardia Airport on Sunday, when the plane crashed into a fire truck. They
also say the fire truck did not have an identification transponder that would have helped controllers know exactly where it was at all times. The
two pilots of the Air Canada regional jet were killed.
Russia has launched a rare daytime drone attack against Ukraine, where Ukrainian military says it was one of the largest in recent months. Nearly
1,000 drones were fired over a 24-hour period, more than half of them came after sunrise. The mayor of Lviv, says at least 70 people were injured.
Liverpool star, Mohamed Salah will leave the team at the end of the season. It comes a year before his contract was set to expire. Salah had
established himself as one of the greatest players in the organization's history, winning two Premier League titles and the Champions League during
his time at Liverpool.
[16:30:06]
Someone made nearly $1 million on Polymarket from a series of remarkably accurate bets about Iran. The anonymous trader predicted numerous
unannounced U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran. It included, for instance, the Israeli strike in October 2024, the U.S. airstrikes on
Iranian nuclear sites last June, and the joint U.S.-Israeli surprise attack last month.
According to Bubblemaps, which is an analytics firm, the better used anonymous accounts to place these bets. And of course, crypto was always
involved somewhere. 93 percent of their wages won $10,000.
Marshall Cohen is in Washington.
MARSHALL COHEN, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Richard.
QUEST: What are -- this is this is somewhat extraordinary. What we're learning, you know, I just have to sort of come back to this basic no smoke
without fire.
COHEN: That's what the experts are saying, too, Richard. You know, there's a lot of questions about this, but let's just look at the hard data first.
As you mentioned, the folks at Bubble Maps, which is an analytics firm that analyzes blockchain transactions, including all the transactions on
Polymarket, they're the ones that sifted through this data. And what they found was that one user had multiple accounts that were all connected and
were making dozens of very well-timed and prescient bets.
You explained already how this goes back to 2024, with bets that were placed in the days and hours before Israeli strikes in Iran, in the days
and hours before the U.S. decision last summer to bomb the nuclear facilities inside Iran. And also earlier this year, just a few weeks ago,
when the current war was started with that U.S.-Israeli surprise attack.
All things considered, Richard, this trader, profited $967,000. Now, I want to talk a little bit about the win percentage here because that's why the
experts are so up in arms about.
QUEST: Ah, yes. Right.
COHEN: They say that even the most talented, shrewd, high frequency traders on these event markets, they can average about 51 percent, 52 percent, 53
percent win rate. So you win a little more than you lose. And that's how you get your profit. This user, they were hitting 83 percent win rate for
all their Iran bets and for the big bets over 10 grand, $10,000. 93 percent rate, which is shocking.
Richard, last thing I need to say. Number one, we don't actually know who this person is. You already mentioned that Polymarket is anonymous and that
is really why we are hitting a brick wall in terms of trying to figure out who this is. And there could be a reasonable explanation. Of course, that
is always possible. Not saying that this is definitely insider trading.
QUEST: Sure.
COHEN: We're just saying it's suspicious. And we reached out to Polymarket and they did not respond to our request for comment.
QUEST: Marshall, one of the things that I find interesting about the whole Polymarket and the whole sort of fact betting type industry is the
specificity of the question and the bet. It's not like who's going to win the 4:30 entry, you know, who's going to win a Belmont in the 7:00 stakes.
These are very specific that relate to a particular type that requires -- well, it's fascinating.
COHEN: You know, we've seen a lot especially on Polymarket of some very, very specific markets that are being created. And we've seen on their
social media accounts as well they've been trying to jump on the hot trend. You know, whenever there's something in the news, they will post on X, on
Twitter, and say, hey, we just made a market on this. Go check it out. So the specificity is the -- is for them an opportunity for a lot of profit,
but also it opens up a vulnerability because the more specific something is, there is a risk that someone could be in position to alter that
outcome. And of course, that is when you start getting into the integrity of the markets.
And I should point out, Richard, that Polymarket just yesterday announced new rules. They called the market integrity rules that they said would
restrict the ability of insider activity on its platforms, which, by the way, they've got their international site that is out of reach of U.S.
federal regulations.
[16:35:01]
That's where all these Iran trades are happening. They also have a U.S. site for U.S., but it's not really up and running yet. But the Trump
administration did give them approval last year to launch it.
QUEST: I'm grateful. There we go. Insider trading cases. Thank you.
Bubblemaps -- thank you, Marshall -- is the firm that flagged all of this. It tracks blockchain transactions. Its CEO as Nicolas Vaiman. Nicolas is
with me now.
I'm grateful to you, sir. We won't get into too much detail on the actual case that we're talking about here, Nicholas, but instead, instead, this
idea that it's unregulated, that you can have an anonymous, you basically your bitcoin account or your crypto account is your identity is, is a -- I
suppose it is the exact opposite of KYC, know your customer regulations, that you find everywhere else in the financial industry.
NICOLAS VAIMAN, CEO, BUBBLEMAPS: Yes, completely. Hello, everybody. Richard, thank you for having me.
Polymarket is a very special prediction market because it is based on a blockchain. It is based on polygon, meaning that the underlying technology
is the blockchain. So every Polymarket account is abstracted we can say by a crypto wallet. And then the user has the opportunity to fund this account
either with a bank account, with a traditional bank, or with crypto. But of course, for most of the insiders that we've exposed, this is not the first
one -- the first time we've done this.
But for most of these insiders, they use crypto. Why? Because if you use your bank account, the information can get subpoenaed by your government
very easily at the click of a button. But if your account gets funded by your crypto wallet, that itself got funded by an unregulated, offshore
centralized exchange, you're basically off grid. So for the insiders who are benefiting from various privileged information, of course they're going
to pick the crypto funding.
QUEST: So this is an accident waiting to happen in a sense. And we always know that regulators are always three paces behind just by, you know, dint
of experience. Regulators are behind those who will be -- wish to do ill. What needs to happen for these very specific types of cases to, without,
without creating some massive regulatory burden?
VAIMAN: It is a fascinating question and it goes into crypto at large because crypto moves at the speed of light, but regulation moves at the
speed of paperwork. So by the time new regulations are drafted, crypto has already morphed into something else on a new chain and or a new name but
it's basically the same. And we've seen this happen so many times in crypto where regulations come one year behind and it's already lost battle.
I also want to add that jurisdiction crypto is a nightmare because what happens when, as Marshall said, Polymarket is not even in the U.S. yet. So
you're basically like, what jurisdiction are we even on here? You could have, for example, a scam happen in Dubai scamming a bunch of people in
Europe. Who's even in charge? Where are you even having the court?
QUEST: OK. All right. But here's the -- but, Nicolas, at the end of the day, at the end of the day, we have to rely on, I suppose, an element of
integrity. I mean, we don't have to rely on it. We've either got to rely on regulation. And if there are people who are determined to be bad actors and
use insider information and setup, then we have to find ways of stopping that and punishing. Otherwise, frankly, should we just turn off the lights
and go home?
VAIMAN: No, I completely agree with you. And this is what actually happened. I think a couple of weeks back in Israel, an insider military
personnel was arrested. We didn't have much information about what, who exactly, but he got arrested. And I actually believe that we have to
enforce some kind of regulation. But now it is state of the art. It is up to Polymarket and Kalshi to find the good resolution of these issues.
QUEST: I'm so grateful you joined us tonight.
VAIMAN: I also want to add something, Richard.
QUEST: Yes. Go ahead. Please, go ahead.
VAIMAN: Thank you very much. I just wanted to add that in many cases, it is very hard to differentiate between an insider or somebody that's going to
be close to an insider. Let me give you an example. In the case of military activity, there are hundreds, if not thousands of people that are involved.
QUEST: Right.
VAIMAN: When you talk about insiders, in this case, most people, they intuitively point towards like high degree (INAUDIBLE) or general or highly
-- like high government official. But this can be troops on the ground. It can be people fueling the jet. It can be intelligence, it can be, you know,
operations.
QUEST: All right.
VAIMAN: So it is very hard to decipher, like who's behind the crypto -- that crypto Polymarket accounts.
[16:40:06]
QUEST: I'm grateful, sir. Thank you for joining us tonight on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. Thank you, Sir Nicolas.
Now, I do need to point out to you, of course, total openness and transparency. CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and we use its data to
cover major events, although our editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.
Now you know.
An explosion at a U.S. oil refinery is adding to the pressure on gas prices. The Valero facility in Port Arthur, Texas, is one of the country's
largest.
QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: The pressure on oil prices seems to be coming every which way and backwards. An explosion at a major refinery in Texas and gas and diesel
futures higher on Tuesday. The explosion at the Valero facility in Port Arthur happened on Monday. The fire is still burning as of this morning. It
appears to have been an accident and there are no reports of any injuries, thank goodness.
U.S. crude rose more than 1 percent despite the president's claim of a major present from Iran relating to the Strait of Hormuz.
Dan Pickering is founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, joins me now from Houston.
It is -- look, let's just get to this. The market responds with such volatility to every announcement from the president one way or the other,
which I understand the significance. But why are they so knee-jerk rather than actually waiting to see if anything happens as a result?
DAN PICKERING, FOUNDER AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, PICKERING ENERGY PARTNERS: Yes. Richard, I think that the reality here is that the prize is
big. If peace breaks out in the Middle East, near-term oil prices will probably go down $25 a barrel. And so every word matters, assuming you can
trust it. I think that's the challenge is that there have been so many words, both from the U.S. and from Iran. It's getting harder to understand
what's actually going on and what you can trust.
QUEST: Do you think even when this is over, do you think that there's any fundamental long-term damage done to the oil or gas markets as a result of
this? Because we have, in a sense, our eyes have been open to the reality of the threat we always knew existed about the strait.
PICKERING: Great question. I think it is the key question, and it all depends on how this conflict ends.
[16:45:05]
If the U.S. walks away and doesn't fix the issue, which is allowing crude to flow back and forth in the Strait of Hormuz, then oil prices are going
to have sort of a permanent risk premium associated with them. So, it all depends on how we finish. If there's a pro-Western government in Iran, I
think that maybe things settle back toward normal. But my guess is that we've now put at least $10 a barrel in crude. It was trading at 60 pre-
conflict.
If you look out in the 27, 28 timeframe, we put at least $10 a barrel into the market because we now have to worry about how oil is going to move out
of there. Remember, it's a lot of oil. As we all know, it's 20 percent of world's supply.
QUEST: What's fascinating is that even those parts of the world not affected, like the U.S., of course, because prices are global through a
global exchange, WTI or Brent, even though the U.S. is awash with the stuff and bringing it in from Canada, this, there and everywhere, the U.S. prices
are still reflecting what's happening 4,000 miles away.
PICKERING: That's right. It's a global market and the U.S. is the world's largest producer. 14 million barrels a day, give or take. And so what's
interesting now as you look, U.S. prices are lower than international prices. And both the WTI and Brent prices that are quoted in the financial
markets are well below the prices being paid in the spot market in Asia. So it matters where you are. We here in the U.S. are lucky that we have such a
significant amount of production, but you can't get away from the fact that it is a global interlinked market.
QUEST: So finally, on this question of U.S., you import from Canada and the correct mix of heavy versus light because of the nature of the refineries
and all of this, but there's no question that there would be any shortages in this country where I am at the moment, or where you are in the United
States, is there?
PICKERING: That's correct. We've got a crisis of price, not a crisis of availability. Very different in Asia, where they're pulling a lot of oil
from the Middle East. So, it's very unlikely that we're going to have problems accessing oil and gas here in the U.S. or in Europe. The issue is
really more one of what the price is going to be. So we're lucky and unlucky at the same time. But I think we'd rather be in these shoes than
the folks that are relying on Middle East crude at this point.
QUEST: I was just about to say, if you have a choice as to which side of that coin you want to be on.
I'm grateful to you, Dan. Thank you very much indeed.
News coming in to us. OpenAI is discontinuing its A.I. video generation tool, Sora, the Sora team posted an announcement a short while ago. It
launched as a standalone app in September and was part of a blockbuster deal between Disney and OpenAI.
Well, this was supposed -- to Hadas Gold.
Hadas, this was supposed to allow us all to somehow take Disney's characters and put ourselves in it and memes and this, that. The
opportunities were huge. Well, you and I talked about it. I even covered it at the time. You think what went wrong?
HADAS GOLD, CNN A.I. CORRESPONDENT: Yes. It goes to show you how quickly things are developing in the artificial intelligence world. This app
launched last year to a lot of fanfare. It shot up to the top of the app charts. You could put yourself or anything you want into any sort of A.I.
video generated, share it on the social media platform. A few months later, that's when they struck that deal with Disney, where they would be
essentially the exclusive A.I. video generating platform where you could create A.I. video generated videos with any of your favorite Disney
characters.
That was a big deal. Launched just a few months ago. Now, OpenAI announcing that they are shutting down this app. And in fact, there is reporting there
won't even be video generation within ChatGPT quite yet. That's a shift in priorities. And this really comes as OpenAI says that they are trying to
shift their focus on what they can get the most high value out of, because all of this cost, Richard, a lot of compute.
That Sora video generation app is a lot of compute for OpenAI. They say they are now trying to shift that focus onto higher value issues, things
like robotics, A.I. generated robotics. And so they are saying they need to shut this down so they can refocus their priorities. There's a lot of
reporting out there that OpenAI is shifting its focus to really refocus everything into one essentially super app.
Instead of having all of these disparate products go to different places, for Sora, for video generation, ChatGPT for your sort of chatbot
conversations, they're trying to focus that all in one. And this comes as they're facing really increased competition, especially from places like
Anthropic when it comes to enterprise business customers.
QUEST: All right. I'm grateful. Thank you very much indeed, Hadas Gold.
Global supply disruptions are pushing up the price of coffee. Now you know how much I do enjoy a cup of coffee. My barista skills. Yes, there I was a
couple of years ago, a few years ago in Rwanda. It was still during the pandemic. We were still wearing masks, et cetera. I'll be talking to a good
old friend about how his shop in Rwanda is doing.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:52:42]
QUEST: Coffee prices have spiked since the start of the Iran war, with global shipping disruptions putting up the price more than 8 percent. And
also, of course, you've got the issues of fertilizer. So an old friend from Rubia Coffee Roasters who I visited, there you see me back a few years,
five years ago in Rwanda, make a very nice cup of coffee. The managing director told me about the brand.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MATHIAS KALISA, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF RUBIA COFFEE ROASTERS: We actually feel we are different and we are like committed because of the past that we
have to keep the spill to glow for the bright future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Since then, Rubia Coffee has ranked number 54 on this year's list of the year's best coffee shops in the world. It's the only shop from Sub-
Saharan Africa to make the cut, and Matthias is back with me now.
Congratulations, sir. Thank you very much. 54, I mean, why is your coffee so good?
KALISA: Well, thank you, Mr. Richard, for having me. So my coffee is good because it's really roasted at the country of its origin.
QUEST: All right. How are you finding supply issues either getting the coffee, delivering it, the cost of energy as a result of what's happening
in the world at the moment?
KALISA: Well, when you are roasting at the country of origin, like, really you don't have a big disturbance of transport internationally. So because
you are just roasting in the backyard of the coffee farms. So, but in our export portfolio, really we are facing a lot of issues because we was
exporting in the Middle East. So what is going on in the Middle East is affecting really the time of delivery and also the price of shipping, of
coffee, that is roasted in the country of origin in Rwanda. So, it's really impacting and hopefully everything will be in a normal in time soon.
QUEST: So what are you doing? Are you putting up your prices to those countries?
[16:55:01]
Or is it just the case of you can't get the product out to export? Because obviously it's much more difficult. So getting the stuff out, whatever the
price is not possible. Which is it?
KALISA: So definitely the transport is impossible because it was using air fleet. And recently it was really no freight flying over Qatar or Dubai. So
definitely our client was facing a big challenge of getting our supplies. So definitely we are not increasing the prices because we don't have a
choice of how we can fly or we can ship our coffee. So the only problem is the shortage of our product in the shelves of our clients.
QUEST: Now the Rwanda coffee bean is one of the best in the world. And the way it is grown is superb. However, will growers in Rwanda, will they face
problems with fertilizers, with increased costs because of what's been happening, do you think? Are you expecting to see your coffees costing you
more?
KALISA: Definitely, yes. But this season really the fertilizer was not a big problem, but I'm looking a big problem in fertilizer in the coming
season because everything will be going higher. The shipment on the transport of the fertilizer around the world will be disrupted because of
what is happening. But definitely, I was talking to colleagues and calling other friends from the farms. They are facing a really big worry about of
getting the fertilizer on time and the delivery, but our government is really working closely with the farmers to solve that issue. And they can
really see what is coming and they are ready to solve it.
QUEST: Right. Well, when you start sending to look forward to getting some of your coffee over here, that's what I need to have. A nice cup of your
good coffee, sir.
Thank you for joining us. We'll follow up and see how things are going. Thank you, sir. Kind of you to join us from Kigali tonight.
KALISA: Thank you.
QUEST: We will take our "Profitable Moment" after the break. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. Good evening.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Tonight's "Profitable Moment."
It was important that we brought our Rwandan guest to you because we talk on this program about markets and this and that and the other. But when you
hear about a coffee roaster in Kigali who says, well, look, I'm worried about the fertilizer for next year's crop, and I can't get my premium
coffee beans to Dubai, it makes sense.
This is what the business world is really all about. Forget all the highfalutin stuff. It's men and women around the world making money as best
they can, and having to deal with these sort of crises, which is why it was so important.
And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight. I'm Richard Quest in New York. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, once again I haven't got the
bell, so ding, I'll see you tomorrow.
END
