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"AMERICA VOTES 2004:" Results of the New Hampshire Primary

Aired January 27, 2004 - 23:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The race for first isn't even close. Senator John Kerry's margin of victory in New Hampshire is in the double digits.
Howard Dean captures second place, leaving questions about the state of his campaign.

A great story tonight -- the seesaw battle for third. Right now Wesley Clark nudges just ahead of Senator John Edwards. Back in fifth, the man whose campaign is clearly on the ropes -- Senator Joe Lieberman.

The winner, ringing in his celebration with a cheer, "I love New Hampshire." The runner-up's behavior, compared to a week ago, decidedly more low key.

Join us tonight as the race takes shape in New Hampshire.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: John Kerry wins. But did he win big enough?

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You stayed the course here in New Hampshire, and because of you, this has been a successful and a happy campaign.

ANNOUNCER: Is Howard Dean this week's comeback kid?

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We really are going to win this nomination, aren't we?

(CHEERS)

ANNOUNCER: And in the political death match for third place, who's the odd man out? And whose campaign is still alive?

New Hampshire voters answered some important questions today, but left others wide open.

Tonight, "AMERICA VOTES 2004," the results of the New Hampshire Primary.

From CNN's election headquarters in Manchester, New Hampshire, Wolf Blitzer.

(END VIDEOTAPE) BLITZER: How many comebacks can you have in one night? Here in New Hampshire, just about every Democrat is using the word "comeback."

Not that long ago, Senator John Kerry was more than 30 points behind in the New Hampshire polls. Tonight, though, Senator Kerry made it two for two, adding a win to the New Hampshire primary, to last week's victory in the Iowa caucuses.

Comeback number two, Howard Dean stopped the bleeding from his third place finish in Iowa. Tonight he comes in 13 points behind Senator Kerry, but that's still good enough for second place.

Wesley Clark says never underestimate what a determined soldier can do when he's fighting for his country. Tonight, Clark is fighting for a third place finish. But as he told his supporters, four months ago he came to New Hampshire as one of the elite eight, and is leaving as one of the final four.

Senator John Edwards says New Hampshire proves his campaign is working. His second place finish in Iowa propelled him from low single digits in earlier New Hampshire polls to a neck-in-neck race for third place. Now, Edwards promises to take his energy and momentum to the rest of the country.

Senator Joe Lieberman is calling tonight's results a three-way split for third place. He's on the short end of that split -- fifth place. Still, the Senator says he's closed strong and will carry on with his campaign.

Here are the vote totals as of this minute. Take a look at this. You can see them on the screen.

With 91 percent of the vote in, 39 percent for John Kerry, the winner, 26 percent for Howard Dean, 13 for Wesley Clark, 12 percent for John Edwards, nine percent for Joe Lieberman, one percent for Dennis Kucinich.

We have reporters with the top five candidates -- Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman. We'll get to them in just a moment.

But we begin with CNN's Judy Woodruff. She's here with the overview -- Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Wolf, as we know, John Kerry was all but written off in the state of New Hampshire just a couple of weeks ago. He has come back convincingly to win this, as we are showing, by a margin of something like 13 points. We'll wait and see what the final numbers are.

But for the second week in a row, the race for the Democratic nomination for president has taken on a new shape.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KERRY: I love New Hampshire!

(CHEERS)

WOODRUFF (voice-over): Another hard-fought victory for John Kerry, as his comeback continues.

KERRY: I want you to march with us across this land and demand a government that's on your side again. That is the mission of this campaign.

WOODRUFF: The senator from Massachusetts wins the New Hampshire primary decisively, on the heels of his Iowa upset. After trailing in both states for months, Kerry powered past the competition in the final days.

Meanwhile, another disappointing night for Howard Dean, who for months was expected to dominate here. He had the buzz and the bucks, but neither has brought him the votes he needs for a first place finish, his remarks tonight a far cry from his defiance in Iowa.

DEAN: The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum, and I am very grateful.

(CHEERS)

WOODRUFF: The night's other disappointment, retired general Wesley Clark, who skipped Iowa, pouring his all into the Granite State.

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thanks to you and the people of New Hampshire, we'll be leaving New Hampshire tonight a smarter, better, stronger and even more determined candidate.

(CHEERS)

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to take this energy and momentum that we saw in Iowa, this extraordinary energy and momentum that we have seen in New Hampshire, and we're going to take it right through February 3.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: Right now, John Edwards and Wesley Clark fighting a very tight race for third place, Wolf.

We did hear, I think significantly, John Edwards tell Larry King tonight that if he doesn't win South Carolina, the state where he was born, next week, February 3, then he will not continue this campaign. In essence, he said, I have to win South Carolina.

BLITZER: Must win.

WOODRUFF: And, of course, we should mention Joe Lieberman, right now running with about nine percent of the vote. A disappointing fifth place, but he says he's staying in, at least until next week.

BLITZER: We'll see what happens next week. A huge week expected, obviously, in the quest of that February 3 -- the February 3 contest. Judy, thanks very much.

Our correspondents are standing by at the various campaign headquarters. Let's start with tonight's big winner. That's the John Kerry campaign. CNN's Kelly Wallace is there -- Kelly.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, I can tell you, it was a bit of a nerve-racking day for Kerry's campaign advisors, because they heard about some exit polling information in the middle of the day which showed possibly, somewhat of a tight race.

That is part of the reason we saw the senator stumping for votes until the final hour -- working the phones, going to polling places, doing interviews.

And then we saw him come into this room here at this hotel and give a speech in which he says, I have just begun to fight. That has really been his theme over the past few weeks, and he is continuing the fight right now, doing a series of television interviews with network programs, also with stations in some of the seven states holding contests one week from today.

Aides say he will go to Boston tonight. They hope he will sleep in, because they say he's tired. And then, Wolf, he gets on a plane headed to Missouri and South Carolina tomorrow -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Kelly Wallace over at the headquarters of John Kerry. Candy -- Kelly Wallace, thanks very much.

Let's go to CNN's Candy Crowley right now. She's over at Howard Dean's headquarters.

Candy, a little bit more subdued tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITCAL CORRESPONDENT: A little bit more subdued, you're right. This time the crowd did the screaming.

Howard Dean really stuck to his, what was essentially his campaign stump speech. He did add in a lot of thank-yous to the people in Iowa who helped him.

Noticed there are people from San Francisco, and the people that tend to follow this campaign around. Not a word about John Kerry or any of the others in the race, but he did thank his New Hampshire supporters.

Here's the problem. Dean also said, listen. We did what we had to do tonight. But it's not what they expected to do.

All day long, aides were saying, if we come in second by single digits, that'll be a comeback after that third in Iowa. After that concession speech that was so controversial, they pretty much hit the floor.

And they wanted to say, we got back up. We're fighting. We proved we can take a really hard punch.

This is clearly the line they're still going with. It's just harder to argue with the double digits.

For now, it is back to the drawing boards, Wolf. They are headed back to Burlington, trying to figure out where they go next, where they can find a victory -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Candy Crowley over at the Howard Dean campaign headquarters. Candy, thanks very much.

The closest contest of the night is actually the race for third place between Wesley Clark and John Edwards. CNN's Dan Lothian is over at Clark headquarters. He's joining us live -- Dan.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, retired General Wesley Clark did not spend a whole lot of time on the ground here after watching the returns, and then giving a short speech to his supporters, who were clearly enthusiastic.

He hopped on a plane and headed to South Carolina, where he is launching his new tour, as he tries to win in those other key primaries. He'll be heading not only to South Carolina, but Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona.

I was talking to one of his aides earlier tonight and asking about the position that they wanted to come in here in New Hampshire in order to be able to bounce into the other primaries.

He said that he was comfortable with finishing fourth, but he really wanted to finish third. And, of course, it appears now that they have certainly got that.

Clark telling his supporters tonight, quote, that never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country. Clark also adding that the battle is just now beginning -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Dan Lothian, thanks for that report. Let's go over to the John Edwards campaign headquarters. CNN's Suzanne Malveaux is standing by there -- Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, they're really trying to put a good face on this. But Senator Edwards saying that, yes, he was still proud of his fourth place position -- still a strong position, but clearly not what they had hoped.

But he explains that this race, as three of the candidates were New Englanders, two from neighboring states, they didn't think they were going to overcome the Dean and Kerry organizations. But they did give Clark a run for his money -- Clark, who did not compete in Iowa, who ran on his military record.

But, of course, Wolf, the senator today saying that really, they are looking forward now to South Carolina. That is his birthplace. That is where he said he has to win. He is leading in the polls. Also looking to Oklahoma as well as Missouri.

Really an interesting number here is the favorability at 70 percent. He beat all the other candidates. But electability in the low teens, that is going to be a problem for Edwards that he is going to have to overcome -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Suzanne Malveaux at John Edwards headquarters. Thanks very much, Suzanne.

Although Joe Lieberman -- Joe Lieberman had hoped to exceed expectations in New Hampshire, he finished the night in fifth place.

We're going to get to Jeanne Meserve. She's standing by. We're going to get to her shortly to get an assessment of what's next for Joe Lieberman.

But in the meantime, let's go over to CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. He's looking at the numbers behind the numbers to explain to us how exactly did Senator Kerry do it?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: And, Wolf, there's a surprising factor in Kerry's victory. Kerry is a Catholic, and he got a lot of support from his fellow Catholics.

His support among Catholics -- 47 to 19 -- a big margin. He won Protestants, too, but not by that big a margin.

By the way, Wolf, there was a Jewish vote in New Hampshire, I'm able exclusively to reveal. It was about four percent.

And who did they vote for? They voted for John Kerry, whose grandfather was Jewish. Their second choice, Wesley Clark, whose father was Jewish.

Joe Lieberman, who is an orthodox Jew, came in third among Jewish voters.

Now, here are the most important issues to voters in New Hampshire. At the top of the list, health care and Medicare. Then the economy and jobs -- both domestic issues, both out-polling the war in Iraq, as the voters' top concerns.

You know, Democrats do not appear to want to make this election a referendum on the Iraq war. They want to talk about domestic issues. But they need a candidate who can stand next to Bush and have credibility on military affairs and national security.

And that's one reason why a lot of them voted for John Kerry, so they can focus on the domestic issues they want to talk about, without worrying too much about their vulnerability on national security -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thanks for the numbers behind the numbers. And tonight's vote totals are telling us much more than just where the candidates finished.

Our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield has been looking into some of the big questions. You raised some of those questions earlier. Now you've got some answers. JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We ask, now we'll answer.

First, the late deciders. If this election -- if this primary had been held three weeks ago, Howard Dean would have won. But in fact, as Bill Schneider's been telling us, those who decided a week or two out, John Kerry won the overwhelming plurality of those. That Iowa bounce worked.

Second, who lost votes? The big loser clearly tonight is General Wes Clark, who two weeks ago was challenging Howard Dean for the lead in the polls. He is now struggling to finish in third place with 12 or 13 percent of the vote. And that's a very hard number to spin, no matter how good you are at spinning.

Third -- and a related question -- the Iowa bypass. How did General Clark and Senator Lieberman do in skipping the Iowa caucuses? Well, it may not have been the reason for their relatively poor showings, but clearly, unlike John McCain four years ago, that strategy did not work, mostly, I think, because General Clark was expecting Howard Dean to come out of Iowa, a person he was positioned to fight. And instead, it was Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards.

And last, on this wine track, beer track, it turns out that Senator John Kerry did well both with working class Democrats -- that may help explain the Catholic vote -- and with the more gentrified Democrats, who are an increasingly large percentage of this state's Democrats.

Howard Dean, Wolf and Judy, I think were -- he was counting on that reform impulse that had driven so many other Democrats to victory or impressive showings here. Not tonight -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Jeff Greenfield, thanks very much.

Third place is considered good enough for a ticket out of New Hampshire and on to the rest of the campaign. But will there be more than one third place ticket?

(UNINTELLIGIBLE) 1,000 votes have separated Wesley Clark and Senator John Edwards. They've traded places throughout the night. Where do they go from here?

Plus, does Howard Dean's second place finish give his campaign a new lease on life? Or make the last gasp a little more drawn out?

Much more coverage -- stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLARK: And never, never underestimate -- never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country. And we're fighting for this country. EDWARDS: Next week we go to places like South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri -- places where I would naturally be stronger, and I feel good about those places.

I've got a lead in South Carolina. It's the place of my birth, as you well know. And I'm going to South Carolina later tonight. So I feel very encouraged going into the next stage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: It's the other big story. Tonight, the fight for third place between John Edwards or Wesley Clark.

Here to talk about it, the author and "TIME" magazine columnist and CNN contributor, Joe Klein and CNN political contributor, Carlos Watson.

Joe, what do you make of this fight for third place?

JOE KLEIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE POLITICAL COLUMNIST: Well, the first thing you have to say is that, except for John Kerry, everybody else had a lousy night tonight. Nobody met their expectations.

Howard Dean wanted to be closer. John Edwards wanted to have the surge continue from Iowa. Wesley Clark was very close to Howard Dean a week ago. Nobody -- and Joe Lieberman, of course, wanted to finish better than fifth.

Nobody got there. And so, now what you have, what you've had during the course of this week is Clark and Edwards kind of competing with each other for who is going to be the southern candidate. And that competition is going to keep both of them busy next week.

BLITZER: Carlos, earlier tonight on "LARRY KING LIVE," Bob Woodward of the "Washington Post," asked Senator Edwards how he has to do in South Carolina next Tuesday. Listen to this exchange.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOB WOODWARD, "WASHINGTON POST": Senator, you really have to win South Carolina. Is that correct?

EDWARDS: That is correct.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: He was blunt. He's acknowledging, I assume, if he doesn't win South Carolina, he's out.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: No two ways about that. But I think it's deeper than that. If he's serious about becoming president, I think realistically, he not only needs to win South Carolina, he's got to find another state or two.

You cannot have a situation on February 3, where John Kerry comes in here, having won two of two contests, and walks away with four or five of the seven. If that happens, there's trouble.

I'll add one other thing. I expect that not only John Edwards, but Wesley Clark and even Howard Dean, now will take turns ganging up on John Kerry the frontrunner, much as you saw them ganging up on Howard Dean in Iowa.

KLEIN: But you know something? Tonight Edwards made plain again that his was a campaign of optimism and being positive and so on.

I don't see -- I mean, John Kerry got a free pass this week. Nobody went after him. Howard Dean a little bit, but not effectively.

And for any of these guys to break out, they're going to have to make a distinction between themselves or John -- and John Kerry ...

(AUDIO GAP)

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": ... was even four weeks ago. This is a breathtaking sort of comeback, to win Iowa by the amount that he won it, and then to come in and win New Hampshire like this. This is a huge political story here. This is a guy that's really come back from something, and to take the lead in this.

And of course he's -- we noted he can run off the pace. I saw him this morning and I said, "Senator, the question is, is can you run on the pace?" And we're going to find out that because he's definitely going to be on the pace between now and next Tuesday. So we'll find out now that he's caught up and taken the lead if he can hold it coming into the stretch.

BLITZER: All right. James Carville and Paul Begala in the CNN election war room. Thanks very much for that assessment. Nice war room you've got there as well.

And there's still a difference between city folks and country folks. Coming up, a close look at how residents of New Hampshire's rural and urban areas voted today. What could all of this mean for the upcoming primary and caucuses states?

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: We have this just coming into CNN, reports a powerful explosion has shaken the center of Baghdad once again. Reuters is quoting eyewitnesses as saying several people were wounded. A Reuters cameraman shot this video of a wrecked car near a hotel in the central district of Baghdad. Will of course keep all of you updated on this development just in.

A powerful explosion has shaken the center of Baghdad. More information as it becomes available.

More now, though, on the New Hampshire primary. As we've been reporting, the candidate who calls himself "Comeback Kerry" is now two for two. After winning the Iowa caucuses last week, John Kerry has scored a convincing win in New Hampshire, capturing 39 percent of the vote.

Howard Dean placed second with 26 percent. The closest race was for third place, where Wesley Clark had a narrow lead over John Edwards. Joe Lieberman came in fifth, followed by Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton. Al Sharpton way, way, way down. Not a factor here in New Hampshire. Could be a factor next week, though, in South Carolina.

Let's get the story behind all of these numbers. For that, once again, we turn to our own Judy Woodruff -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Well, Wolf, a convincing win for John Kerry. But you know, New Hampshire is traditionally looked to as a state that winnows the field. Right now, it may have done that psychologically, but you do not have one of these candidates dropping out. The five main candidates still in the race. And by their and in their remarks tonight, you could get a sense of the shape of what they believe they can build the campaign on as they go forward.

Here's what all of them had to say tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have spent my whole life fighting for what I think is right and against powerful special interests. And I have only just begun the fight.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can take back America and stand up for working families and middle class families again, and take our government back for the people who built it instead of corporations and special interests. And we will.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And now we're going to take this energy and momentum that we saw in Iowa, this extraordinary energy and momentum that we have seen in New Hampshire, and we're going to take it right through February 3.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country. And we're fighting for this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D-CT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But today, the people of New Hampshire put me in the ring, and that's where we're going to stay.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: So no acknowledgement from these candidates, Wolf, that they have any intention of getting out. But it's clear, looking at tonight's results, the reality is there.

John Kerry has won two for two. They're going to be looking at some tough states next week. And this race could change and will change yet again.

BLITZER: One week from today. We'll all be there.

WOODRUFF: That's right.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Judy.

Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, has been looking at a map of New Hampshire. He's coming up with some very interesting discoveries -- Jeff.

GREENFIELD: Thanks to the folks at Spacial Logic, who have given us Spatial Logic (ph), who are giving us what we are calling Vote Track, we're able to see in geographic terms how John Kerry pulled this off. And it is a victory that is not the normal kind of Democratic victory in its breadth. Let me show you what I mean.

We could have expected that Howard Dean, for instance, would win a college town like Hanover, where Dartmouth University is. And we would expect that Howard Dean would win some of the towns along Vermont which he had governed. We would also expect that Senator John Kerry would win the working class districts of and the city of Manchester. This is where Al gore won his race four years ago.

The surprise to some people was that the reformer, Howard Dean, lost to John Kerry in such places as Concord, in such places as the relatively upscale bedroom communities that border Massachusetts. And, perhaps most significantly, in the so-called collar towns around Manchester, places like Bedford, upscale places where reform Democrats like Bill Bradly, Paul Tsongas and others, have traditionally done well.

What happened basically was John Kerry won in the 65 percent of the population area of Massachusetts, leaving Howard Dean the less populated areas. Why does this matter? A candidate who can do both what we're calling the wine track and beer track, get regular working class traditional Democrats and reformed Democrats, if history is any guide, is often well suited, well positioned to go on in later states and capture the party's nomination.

That's not a prediction. It's just a bit of history.

BLITZER: A little bit of analysis as well. Thanks very much, Jeff, for that high-tech analysis.

GREENFIELD: Oh boy.

BLITZER: Playing catch-up. Does Howard Dean's second-place finish mean he's the new comeback candidate, or is his campaign in trouble?

Struggling to keep a foothold, pitfalls and possibilities for the other Democrats. A look at how the race could change in just one week.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back to our continuing coverage of the New Hampshire primary. A first-place finish continues to elude Howard Dean, coming in second tonight here in New Hampshire, following his third-place finish in Iowa only a week ago.

For more on all of this, I'm joined by two guests, CNN political analyst, former Al Gore campaign manager, Donna Brazile, and CNN "CROSSFIRE" host, Bob Novak.

Thanks to both of you.

Let's listen, both of you guys, to the tone, the substance of what Howard Dean did tonight and what contrasted to his speech in Iowa. Let's listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: For those of you who think that America needs a president who is willing to stand up for what's right, not just what's popular, we are all together again. Stand together all of us. To those of you who believe the best way to beat George Bush, about the only way to beat George Bush is to stand up to him all the time, not just when it's convenient, not just some of the time...

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin. We're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico! And we're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan! And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House! Yeah!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Donna, what a difference a week makes for Howard Dean. DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. Look, I think Howard Dean took a chill pill. He was not only subdued, but he was rather relaxed in his own clothing tonight. He was -- he managed to communicate with his voters, as well as to general audience.

But look, Howard Dean is in trouble. He has to win now. He has a movement, he must transform it into a campaign. I believe that next week Howard Dean, if he doesn't win a couple of states, his numbers will continue to slip.

BLITZER: Do you agree, Bob?

ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Yes, entirely. Now, I think you noticed that he kept his jacket on. Now that was very significant, keeping the jacket on.

I think it goes to the old rule that somebody goes crazy only once in a campaign. But it's too late. It's just too late for him.

The situation for him is disastrous. He had to win New Hampshire, which is one of his best states, not a close second. He had to win here.

Now, the seven states coming up on February 3, next Tuesday, are bad for him. He thinks he can do better in the states the following weekend, in Michigan and Washington State. He's talking about skipping these states and going (UNINTELLIGIBLE), which would be a tremendous tactical mistake. If he just finesses these February 3 states and says, well, I'm going to Michigan, it says, man, this guy is in desperate shape and he can't win in a middle ground state like Missouri, a southern state like South Carolina, or a western state like Arizona.

BRAZILE: Bob is absolutely right.

BLITZER: All right. Hold on one second. I want to show our viewers some of the numbers we got in our exit polls.

We asked our viewers about Howard Dean's temperament, does he have the right temperament. Take a look at these numbers. We'll put them up over here.

Dean has the right temperament, 56 percent said yes, 39, almost 40 percent, said no. You look at those numbers -- and you've looked at a lot of numbers, Donna, over your career -- what do those numbers say to you?

BRAZILE: Look, I still believe, Bob, that Howard Dean can go out there and capture some delegates. But his campaign must begin to act like a campaign and not a movement. It's turning off a lot of voters; it's not bringing on people anymore. And he needs to really focus now on coming up with a national appeal, a national pitch to reach a more diverse audience in the coming days.

NOVAK: I am very (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to pronounce candidates dead. They come up and bite you too many times. But he's dead. He's really dead.

He only did 25 percent in what is his best primary state. I would say the threat right now to Kerry -- not much of a threat -- comes from Edwards. But he has grave difficulties in trying to put it together. But I would say that Dean, unless Kerry shoots himself in the foot -- and I don't think John Kerry is a foot shooter -- I think Dean is dead.

BLITZER: All right. Well, let's take a look at some other numbers that we got from our exit polls as well. We asked our exit poll people who participated what their opinion of Howard Dean, if they had a favorable or unfavorable. Fifty-six percent of the people who voted here said they had a favorable opinion, compared to 40 percent, who had an unfavorable opinion. I've got to tell you, looking at the other candidates, especially John Edwards and John Kerry, a lot lower favorable numbers for Howard Dean.

BRAZILE: Oh, there's no question, Dean has to overcome a huge hurdle.

Bob, I don't think he's dead, but he's still wounded. He's no longer bleeding. The guy got off the mat, he's now back on his feet. He has an opportunity next week to go out to Missouri, go to New Mexico, go to Arizona, find a place and win something.

NOVAK: I'll tell you what his trouble is. That after he calms himself down, he puts his coat back on this week, tries to be subdued, he is still saying that three Democratic United States senators have the blood of 500 American service people on their hands. That's terrible. That's a terrible thing to say.

Now, some of his hot-blooded young supporters might say that's what we need from Dean, but that turns ordinary Democratic voters off. Don't you think?

BRAZILE: Well, that's not going to help him grow the electorate. That's not going to help him, you know, appeal to a more moderate audience that he will face in the coming campaign. So again, I think for Howard Dean to survive the next couple of weeks, he has to really...

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: Don't you think he has to win at least one primary Tuesday?

BRAZILE: Absolutely.

BLITZER: We'll see if he does next Tuesday. We'll all be back watching.

Donna Brazile, Bob Novak, thanks very much.

Joe Lieberman says his campaign is a cause. He vows not to drop out. But what's the realistic road ahead for the former vice presidential nominee? We'll go live to Lieberman headquarters and more.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LIEBERMAN: Thanks to the people of New Hampshire, we are in a three-way split decision for third place.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: He's now with a fifth-place finish, but Senator Joe Lieberman insists he's not out.

Our Jeanne Meserve is over at Lieberman campaign headquarters. She's joining us now live.

What's next for the senator from Connecticut, Jeanne?

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, if Joe Lieberman is anything, he is an internal optimist. He says the people of New Hampshire have put him in the ring and he is going to stay there. He is going to compete in the February 3 states.

Campaign officials say they will be throwing everything they have at South Carolina, Oklahoma and Delaware, with the recognition that he has to come up with a win in one of those places. Their hope is that voters there will be looking for a moderate alternative to John Kerry and Howard Dean. But you have to ask, is that wishful thinking?

Lieberman moved to the state of New Hampshire. He put a lot of time in here. He spent a lot of money. And still, he wound up in the single digits. If his campaign is finding any comfort in the results here, it is that neither Wesley Clark nor John Edwards had a particularly good night here either -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Jeanne Meserve over at the Lieberman campaign headquarters. They're breaking down that headquarters. The noise you were hearing was the equipment being removed.

Thanks, Jeanne, very much.

Let's get a little analysis of what all of this means. Once again, our CNN political contributor, Carlos Watson.

Carlos, we have some numbers. I want to put them up on the screen. We asked some of the voters in our CNN exit polls their ideas on various issues.

Take a look at this. As far as ideology is concerned, who voted tonight? Forty-six percent describe themselves as liberal, 45 percent described themselves as moderate. Nine percent said they were conservative. Maybe only nine percent, that probably underscores why Lieberman came in fifth.

WATSON: Well, two things. One, timing is everything. And he missed the critical bump.

When people were looking for an anti-Dean alternative, they found it in Iowa. It didn't happen in New Hampshire, where both he and Clark hoped that it would. It happened in Iowa, and he missed the train on that one.

The other thing that's critical here is, when he advertised, he didn't advertise himself as a committed liberal progressive or even progressive moderate Democrat. He was unequivocal about saying, I'm going after McCain Independents, which for a lot of Democratic voters, even moderate primary voters, that said, oh, you're a conservative Democrat, and probably turned some of them off.

BLITZER: All right. Let's talk a little bit more about those moderate voters. Once again, let's go back to this screen. Take a look at some of the exit polling that we did.

And look at this. Among moderates, people who describe themselves as moderate voters, John Kerry got 43 percent of that vote. Howard Dean got 18 percent. Joe Lieberman only 10 percent of those people who voted tonight in the Democratic primary who describe themselves as moderates.

What does that say to you?

WATSON: Well, cutting through all of that is the drive for electability. And again, one of the things the Kerry campaign did well, and I don't think they get enough credit for, is in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire they moved the conversation from a referendum on Howard Dean, which is what Iowa was about, to a conversation about electability. And that was defined by a Vietnam vet, by a Yale graduate, by a three-term-plus senator from next-door Massachusetts.

And we can't forget that in three of the last four contested New Hampshire Democratic primaries they've chosen Massachusetts-elected officials. Dukakis, Tsongas, and now John Kerry.

BLITZER: What does Howard Dean have to do next Tuesday to remain a viable candidate?

WATSON: I think Howard Dean is going to do two very interesting things. First and foremost, I think he's going to pursue what I call the Schwarzenegger strategy, meaning that he will -- you'll see him on late night television, you'll see him on the "Leno" show, you'll see him as you did on "The Daily Show" last night with Jon Stewart. You'll see him in a lot of other venues that aren't traditional political venues.

BLITZER: He was on "Letterman" doing the top 10.

WATSON: He was on "Letterman." And you might even see him, if he can get on, on shows like "Dateline" and "Entertainment Tonight," really looking for, how can I reach voters not in one retail small state, but how can I reach voters across seven states?

The other thing that you'll see him do is -- I guarantee you will see an e-mail blitz start tomorrow, where he reaches out to that base of 600,000 supporters and says, if ever we needed you, if ever we needed your money, if ever we needed your commitment and your time, we need it now. And you'll see him sending those e-mails out and raising money.

Wolf, he's raised $1.8 million just since Iowa. Many people don't realize that, but despite the loss and despite the speech that wasn't received well, he's raised as much money and maybe more, because we don't have the final numbers, than either Kerry or Edwards, who came in first or second.

BLITZER: All right. Carlos Watson, we'll continue this analysis. Thanks very much for that report.

WATSON: Good to see you.

BLITZER: Let's take a look one more time now at the New Hampshire primary returns.

A big victory -- a very big victory for John Kerry. He's captured 39 percent of the vote. Howard Dean at 26 percent. Wesley Clark 13 percent, a battle for third place with Senator John Edwards of North Carolina at 12 percent. Joe Lieberman is down at fifth place with nine percent. Dennis Kucinich gets one percent of the vote here in New Hampshire.

Al Sharpton not a real factor here in New Hampshire. We will be a factor, by all accounts, in South Carolina one week from today.

Before we go this hour, we want to take one more look at how this evening went.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: I love New Hampshire.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: I really appreciate all that you've done. The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum. And I am very grateful.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go!

CLARK: Four months ago we weren't even in this race. We had no money. We had no staff. We had no office. All we had was hope and a vision for a better America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LIEBERMAN: You and I both know that the national pundits didn't expect this. Did they?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

LIEBERMAN: As a matter of fact, this morning the national newspaper put four of their candidates on their front page. Not me. But today the people of New Hampshire put me in the ring, and that's where we're going to stay.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDWARDS: And here in New Hampshire, 10 days ago we were 20 points behind General Clark. And look at what we've done. This momentum is extraordinary.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: If George Bush wants to make national security the central issue of this campaign, we have three words for him we know he understands: bring it on!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bring it on!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bring it on!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bring it on!

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP) BLITZER: And CNN's in-depth coverage of the New Hampshire primary doesn't end here. Stay tuned for a special edition of "LARRY KING LIVE." That starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Primary>

Aired January 27, 2004 - 23:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The race for first isn't even close. Senator John Kerry's margin of victory in New Hampshire is in the double digits.
Howard Dean captures second place, leaving questions about the state of his campaign.

A great story tonight -- the seesaw battle for third. Right now Wesley Clark nudges just ahead of Senator John Edwards. Back in fifth, the man whose campaign is clearly on the ropes -- Senator Joe Lieberman.

The winner, ringing in his celebration with a cheer, "I love New Hampshire." The runner-up's behavior, compared to a week ago, decidedly more low key.

Join us tonight as the race takes shape in New Hampshire.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: John Kerry wins. But did he win big enough?

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You stayed the course here in New Hampshire, and because of you, this has been a successful and a happy campaign.

ANNOUNCER: Is Howard Dean this week's comeback kid?

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We really are going to win this nomination, aren't we?

(CHEERS)

ANNOUNCER: And in the political death match for third place, who's the odd man out? And whose campaign is still alive?

New Hampshire voters answered some important questions today, but left others wide open.

Tonight, "AMERICA VOTES 2004," the results of the New Hampshire Primary.

From CNN's election headquarters in Manchester, New Hampshire, Wolf Blitzer.

(END VIDEOTAPE) BLITZER: How many comebacks can you have in one night? Here in New Hampshire, just about every Democrat is using the word "comeback."

Not that long ago, Senator John Kerry was more than 30 points behind in the New Hampshire polls. Tonight, though, Senator Kerry made it two for two, adding a win to the New Hampshire primary, to last week's victory in the Iowa caucuses.

Comeback number two, Howard Dean stopped the bleeding from his third place finish in Iowa. Tonight he comes in 13 points behind Senator Kerry, but that's still good enough for second place.

Wesley Clark says never underestimate what a determined soldier can do when he's fighting for his country. Tonight, Clark is fighting for a third place finish. But as he told his supporters, four months ago he came to New Hampshire as one of the elite eight, and is leaving as one of the final four.

Senator John Edwards says New Hampshire proves his campaign is working. His second place finish in Iowa propelled him from low single digits in earlier New Hampshire polls to a neck-in-neck race for third place. Now, Edwards promises to take his energy and momentum to the rest of the country.

Senator Joe Lieberman is calling tonight's results a three-way split for third place. He's on the short end of that split -- fifth place. Still, the Senator says he's closed strong and will carry on with his campaign.

Here are the vote totals as of this minute. Take a look at this. You can see them on the screen.

With 91 percent of the vote in, 39 percent for John Kerry, the winner, 26 percent for Howard Dean, 13 for Wesley Clark, 12 percent for John Edwards, nine percent for Joe Lieberman, one percent for Dennis Kucinich.

We have reporters with the top five candidates -- Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman. We'll get to them in just a moment.

But we begin with CNN's Judy Woodruff. She's here with the overview -- Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Wolf, as we know, John Kerry was all but written off in the state of New Hampshire just a couple of weeks ago. He has come back convincingly to win this, as we are showing, by a margin of something like 13 points. We'll wait and see what the final numbers are.

But for the second week in a row, the race for the Democratic nomination for president has taken on a new shape.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KERRY: I love New Hampshire!

(CHEERS)

WOODRUFF (voice-over): Another hard-fought victory for John Kerry, as his comeback continues.

KERRY: I want you to march with us across this land and demand a government that's on your side again. That is the mission of this campaign.

WOODRUFF: The senator from Massachusetts wins the New Hampshire primary decisively, on the heels of his Iowa upset. After trailing in both states for months, Kerry powered past the competition in the final days.

Meanwhile, another disappointing night for Howard Dean, who for months was expected to dominate here. He had the buzz and the bucks, but neither has brought him the votes he needs for a first place finish, his remarks tonight a far cry from his defiance in Iowa.

DEAN: The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum, and I am very grateful.

(CHEERS)

WOODRUFF: The night's other disappointment, retired general Wesley Clark, who skipped Iowa, pouring his all into the Granite State.

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thanks to you and the people of New Hampshire, we'll be leaving New Hampshire tonight a smarter, better, stronger and even more determined candidate.

(CHEERS)

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to take this energy and momentum that we saw in Iowa, this extraordinary energy and momentum that we have seen in New Hampshire, and we're going to take it right through February 3.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: Right now, John Edwards and Wesley Clark fighting a very tight race for third place, Wolf.

We did hear, I think significantly, John Edwards tell Larry King tonight that if he doesn't win South Carolina, the state where he was born, next week, February 3, then he will not continue this campaign. In essence, he said, I have to win South Carolina.

BLITZER: Must win.

WOODRUFF: And, of course, we should mention Joe Lieberman, right now running with about nine percent of the vote. A disappointing fifth place, but he says he's staying in, at least until next week.

BLITZER: We'll see what happens next week. A huge week expected, obviously, in the quest of that February 3 -- the February 3 contest. Judy, thanks very much.

Our correspondents are standing by at the various campaign headquarters. Let's start with tonight's big winner. That's the John Kerry campaign. CNN's Kelly Wallace is there -- Kelly.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, I can tell you, it was a bit of a nerve-racking day for Kerry's campaign advisors, because they heard about some exit polling information in the middle of the day which showed possibly, somewhat of a tight race.

That is part of the reason we saw the senator stumping for votes until the final hour -- working the phones, going to polling places, doing interviews.

And then we saw him come into this room here at this hotel and give a speech in which he says, I have just begun to fight. That has really been his theme over the past few weeks, and he is continuing the fight right now, doing a series of television interviews with network programs, also with stations in some of the seven states holding contests one week from today.

Aides say he will go to Boston tonight. They hope he will sleep in, because they say he's tired. And then, Wolf, he gets on a plane headed to Missouri and South Carolina tomorrow -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Kelly Wallace over at the headquarters of John Kerry. Candy -- Kelly Wallace, thanks very much.

Let's go to CNN's Candy Crowley right now. She's over at Howard Dean's headquarters.

Candy, a little bit more subdued tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITCAL CORRESPONDENT: A little bit more subdued, you're right. This time the crowd did the screaming.

Howard Dean really stuck to his, what was essentially his campaign stump speech. He did add in a lot of thank-yous to the people in Iowa who helped him.

Noticed there are people from San Francisco, and the people that tend to follow this campaign around. Not a word about John Kerry or any of the others in the race, but he did thank his New Hampshire supporters.

Here's the problem. Dean also said, listen. We did what we had to do tonight. But it's not what they expected to do.

All day long, aides were saying, if we come in second by single digits, that'll be a comeback after that third in Iowa. After that concession speech that was so controversial, they pretty much hit the floor.

And they wanted to say, we got back up. We're fighting. We proved we can take a really hard punch.

This is clearly the line they're still going with. It's just harder to argue with the double digits.

For now, it is back to the drawing boards, Wolf. They are headed back to Burlington, trying to figure out where they go next, where they can find a victory -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Candy Crowley over at the Howard Dean campaign headquarters. Candy, thanks very much.

The closest contest of the night is actually the race for third place between Wesley Clark and John Edwards. CNN's Dan Lothian is over at Clark headquarters. He's joining us live -- Dan.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, retired General Wesley Clark did not spend a whole lot of time on the ground here after watching the returns, and then giving a short speech to his supporters, who were clearly enthusiastic.

He hopped on a plane and headed to South Carolina, where he is launching his new tour, as he tries to win in those other key primaries. He'll be heading not only to South Carolina, but Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona.

I was talking to one of his aides earlier tonight and asking about the position that they wanted to come in here in New Hampshire in order to be able to bounce into the other primaries.

He said that he was comfortable with finishing fourth, but he really wanted to finish third. And, of course, it appears now that they have certainly got that.

Clark telling his supporters tonight, quote, that never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country. Clark also adding that the battle is just now beginning -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Dan Lothian, thanks for that report. Let's go over to the John Edwards campaign headquarters. CNN's Suzanne Malveaux is standing by there -- Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, they're really trying to put a good face on this. But Senator Edwards saying that, yes, he was still proud of his fourth place position -- still a strong position, but clearly not what they had hoped.

But he explains that this race, as three of the candidates were New Englanders, two from neighboring states, they didn't think they were going to overcome the Dean and Kerry organizations. But they did give Clark a run for his money -- Clark, who did not compete in Iowa, who ran on his military record.

But, of course, Wolf, the senator today saying that really, they are looking forward now to South Carolina. That is his birthplace. That is where he said he has to win. He is leading in the polls. Also looking to Oklahoma as well as Missouri.

Really an interesting number here is the favorability at 70 percent. He beat all the other candidates. But electability in the low teens, that is going to be a problem for Edwards that he is going to have to overcome -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Suzanne Malveaux at John Edwards headquarters. Thanks very much, Suzanne.

Although Joe Lieberman -- Joe Lieberman had hoped to exceed expectations in New Hampshire, he finished the night in fifth place.

We're going to get to Jeanne Meserve. She's standing by. We're going to get to her shortly to get an assessment of what's next for Joe Lieberman.

But in the meantime, let's go over to CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. He's looking at the numbers behind the numbers to explain to us how exactly did Senator Kerry do it?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: And, Wolf, there's a surprising factor in Kerry's victory. Kerry is a Catholic, and he got a lot of support from his fellow Catholics.

His support among Catholics -- 47 to 19 -- a big margin. He won Protestants, too, but not by that big a margin.

By the way, Wolf, there was a Jewish vote in New Hampshire, I'm able exclusively to reveal. It was about four percent.

And who did they vote for? They voted for John Kerry, whose grandfather was Jewish. Their second choice, Wesley Clark, whose father was Jewish.

Joe Lieberman, who is an orthodox Jew, came in third among Jewish voters.

Now, here are the most important issues to voters in New Hampshire. At the top of the list, health care and Medicare. Then the economy and jobs -- both domestic issues, both out-polling the war in Iraq, as the voters' top concerns.

You know, Democrats do not appear to want to make this election a referendum on the Iraq war. They want to talk about domestic issues. But they need a candidate who can stand next to Bush and have credibility on military affairs and national security.

And that's one reason why a lot of them voted for John Kerry, so they can focus on the domestic issues they want to talk about, without worrying too much about their vulnerability on national security -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thanks for the numbers behind the numbers. And tonight's vote totals are telling us much more than just where the candidates finished.

Our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield has been looking into some of the big questions. You raised some of those questions earlier. Now you've got some answers. JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We ask, now we'll answer.

First, the late deciders. If this election -- if this primary had been held three weeks ago, Howard Dean would have won. But in fact, as Bill Schneider's been telling us, those who decided a week or two out, John Kerry won the overwhelming plurality of those. That Iowa bounce worked.

Second, who lost votes? The big loser clearly tonight is General Wes Clark, who two weeks ago was challenging Howard Dean for the lead in the polls. He is now struggling to finish in third place with 12 or 13 percent of the vote. And that's a very hard number to spin, no matter how good you are at spinning.

Third -- and a related question -- the Iowa bypass. How did General Clark and Senator Lieberman do in skipping the Iowa caucuses? Well, it may not have been the reason for their relatively poor showings, but clearly, unlike John McCain four years ago, that strategy did not work, mostly, I think, because General Clark was expecting Howard Dean to come out of Iowa, a person he was positioned to fight. And instead, it was Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards.

And last, on this wine track, beer track, it turns out that Senator John Kerry did well both with working class Democrats -- that may help explain the Catholic vote -- and with the more gentrified Democrats, who are an increasingly large percentage of this state's Democrats.

Howard Dean, Wolf and Judy, I think were -- he was counting on that reform impulse that had driven so many other Democrats to victory or impressive showings here. Not tonight -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Jeff Greenfield, thanks very much.

Third place is considered good enough for a ticket out of New Hampshire and on to the rest of the campaign. But will there be more than one third place ticket?

(UNINTELLIGIBLE) 1,000 votes have separated Wesley Clark and Senator John Edwards. They've traded places throughout the night. Where do they go from here?

Plus, does Howard Dean's second place finish give his campaign a new lease on life? Or make the last gasp a little more drawn out?

Much more coverage -- stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLARK: And never, never underestimate -- never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country. And we're fighting for this country. EDWARDS: Next week we go to places like South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri -- places where I would naturally be stronger, and I feel good about those places.

I've got a lead in South Carolina. It's the place of my birth, as you well know. And I'm going to South Carolina later tonight. So I feel very encouraged going into the next stage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: It's the other big story. Tonight, the fight for third place between John Edwards or Wesley Clark.

Here to talk about it, the author and "TIME" magazine columnist and CNN contributor, Joe Klein and CNN political contributor, Carlos Watson.

Joe, what do you make of this fight for third place?

JOE KLEIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE POLITICAL COLUMNIST: Well, the first thing you have to say is that, except for John Kerry, everybody else had a lousy night tonight. Nobody met their expectations.

Howard Dean wanted to be closer. John Edwards wanted to have the surge continue from Iowa. Wesley Clark was very close to Howard Dean a week ago. Nobody -- and Joe Lieberman, of course, wanted to finish better than fifth.

Nobody got there. And so, now what you have, what you've had during the course of this week is Clark and Edwards kind of competing with each other for who is going to be the southern candidate. And that competition is going to keep both of them busy next week.

BLITZER: Carlos, earlier tonight on "LARRY KING LIVE," Bob Woodward of the "Washington Post," asked Senator Edwards how he has to do in South Carolina next Tuesday. Listen to this exchange.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOB WOODWARD, "WASHINGTON POST": Senator, you really have to win South Carolina. Is that correct?

EDWARDS: That is correct.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: He was blunt. He's acknowledging, I assume, if he doesn't win South Carolina, he's out.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: No two ways about that. But I think it's deeper than that. If he's serious about becoming president, I think realistically, he not only needs to win South Carolina, he's got to find another state or two.

You cannot have a situation on February 3, where John Kerry comes in here, having won two of two contests, and walks away with four or five of the seven. If that happens, there's trouble.

I'll add one other thing. I expect that not only John Edwards, but Wesley Clark and even Howard Dean, now will take turns ganging up on John Kerry the frontrunner, much as you saw them ganging up on Howard Dean in Iowa.

KLEIN: But you know something? Tonight Edwards made plain again that his was a campaign of optimism and being positive and so on.

I don't see -- I mean, John Kerry got a free pass this week. Nobody went after him. Howard Dean a little bit, but not effectively.

And for any of these guys to break out, they're going to have to make a distinction between themselves or John -- and John Kerry ...

(AUDIO GAP)

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": ... was even four weeks ago. This is a breathtaking sort of comeback, to win Iowa by the amount that he won it, and then to come in and win New Hampshire like this. This is a huge political story here. This is a guy that's really come back from something, and to take the lead in this.

And of course he's -- we noted he can run off the pace. I saw him this morning and I said, "Senator, the question is, is can you run on the pace?" And we're going to find out that because he's definitely going to be on the pace between now and next Tuesday. So we'll find out now that he's caught up and taken the lead if he can hold it coming into the stretch.

BLITZER: All right. James Carville and Paul Begala in the CNN election war room. Thanks very much for that assessment. Nice war room you've got there as well.

And there's still a difference between city folks and country folks. Coming up, a close look at how residents of New Hampshire's rural and urban areas voted today. What could all of this mean for the upcoming primary and caucuses states?

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: We have this just coming into CNN, reports a powerful explosion has shaken the center of Baghdad once again. Reuters is quoting eyewitnesses as saying several people were wounded. A Reuters cameraman shot this video of a wrecked car near a hotel in the central district of Baghdad. Will of course keep all of you updated on this development just in.

A powerful explosion has shaken the center of Baghdad. More information as it becomes available.

More now, though, on the New Hampshire primary. As we've been reporting, the candidate who calls himself "Comeback Kerry" is now two for two. After winning the Iowa caucuses last week, John Kerry has scored a convincing win in New Hampshire, capturing 39 percent of the vote.

Howard Dean placed second with 26 percent. The closest race was for third place, where Wesley Clark had a narrow lead over John Edwards. Joe Lieberman came in fifth, followed by Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton. Al Sharpton way, way, way down. Not a factor here in New Hampshire. Could be a factor next week, though, in South Carolina.

Let's get the story behind all of these numbers. For that, once again, we turn to our own Judy Woodruff -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Well, Wolf, a convincing win for John Kerry. But you know, New Hampshire is traditionally looked to as a state that winnows the field. Right now, it may have done that psychologically, but you do not have one of these candidates dropping out. The five main candidates still in the race. And by their and in their remarks tonight, you could get a sense of the shape of what they believe they can build the campaign on as they go forward.

Here's what all of them had to say tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have spent my whole life fighting for what I think is right and against powerful special interests. And I have only just begun the fight.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can take back America and stand up for working families and middle class families again, and take our government back for the people who built it instead of corporations and special interests. And we will.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And now we're going to take this energy and momentum that we saw in Iowa, this extraordinary energy and momentum that we have seen in New Hampshire, and we're going to take it right through February 3.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country. And we're fighting for this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D-CT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But today, the people of New Hampshire put me in the ring, and that's where we're going to stay.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: So no acknowledgement from these candidates, Wolf, that they have any intention of getting out. But it's clear, looking at tonight's results, the reality is there.

John Kerry has won two for two. They're going to be looking at some tough states next week. And this race could change and will change yet again.

BLITZER: One week from today. We'll all be there.

WOODRUFF: That's right.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Judy.

Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, has been looking at a map of New Hampshire. He's coming up with some very interesting discoveries -- Jeff.

GREENFIELD: Thanks to the folks at Spacial Logic, who have given us Spatial Logic (ph), who are giving us what we are calling Vote Track, we're able to see in geographic terms how John Kerry pulled this off. And it is a victory that is not the normal kind of Democratic victory in its breadth. Let me show you what I mean.

We could have expected that Howard Dean, for instance, would win a college town like Hanover, where Dartmouth University is. And we would expect that Howard Dean would win some of the towns along Vermont which he had governed. We would also expect that Senator John Kerry would win the working class districts of and the city of Manchester. This is where Al gore won his race four years ago.

The surprise to some people was that the reformer, Howard Dean, lost to John Kerry in such places as Concord, in such places as the relatively upscale bedroom communities that border Massachusetts. And, perhaps most significantly, in the so-called collar towns around Manchester, places like Bedford, upscale places where reform Democrats like Bill Bradly, Paul Tsongas and others, have traditionally done well.

What happened basically was John Kerry won in the 65 percent of the population area of Massachusetts, leaving Howard Dean the less populated areas. Why does this matter? A candidate who can do both what we're calling the wine track and beer track, get regular working class traditional Democrats and reformed Democrats, if history is any guide, is often well suited, well positioned to go on in later states and capture the party's nomination.

That's not a prediction. It's just a bit of history.

BLITZER: A little bit of analysis as well. Thanks very much, Jeff, for that high-tech analysis.

GREENFIELD: Oh boy.

BLITZER: Playing catch-up. Does Howard Dean's second-place finish mean he's the new comeback candidate, or is his campaign in trouble?

Struggling to keep a foothold, pitfalls and possibilities for the other Democrats. A look at how the race could change in just one week.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back to our continuing coverage of the New Hampshire primary. A first-place finish continues to elude Howard Dean, coming in second tonight here in New Hampshire, following his third-place finish in Iowa only a week ago.

For more on all of this, I'm joined by two guests, CNN political analyst, former Al Gore campaign manager, Donna Brazile, and CNN "CROSSFIRE" host, Bob Novak.

Thanks to both of you.

Let's listen, both of you guys, to the tone, the substance of what Howard Dean did tonight and what contrasted to his speech in Iowa. Let's listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: For those of you who think that America needs a president who is willing to stand up for what's right, not just what's popular, we are all together again. Stand together all of us. To those of you who believe the best way to beat George Bush, about the only way to beat George Bush is to stand up to him all the time, not just when it's convenient, not just some of the time...

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin. We're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico! And we're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan! And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House! Yeah!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Donna, what a difference a week makes for Howard Dean. DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. Look, I think Howard Dean took a chill pill. He was not only subdued, but he was rather relaxed in his own clothing tonight. He was -- he managed to communicate with his voters, as well as to general audience.

But look, Howard Dean is in trouble. He has to win now. He has a movement, he must transform it into a campaign. I believe that next week Howard Dean, if he doesn't win a couple of states, his numbers will continue to slip.

BLITZER: Do you agree, Bob?

ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Yes, entirely. Now, I think you noticed that he kept his jacket on. Now that was very significant, keeping the jacket on.

I think it goes to the old rule that somebody goes crazy only once in a campaign. But it's too late. It's just too late for him.

The situation for him is disastrous. He had to win New Hampshire, which is one of his best states, not a close second. He had to win here.

Now, the seven states coming up on February 3, next Tuesday, are bad for him. He thinks he can do better in the states the following weekend, in Michigan and Washington State. He's talking about skipping these states and going (UNINTELLIGIBLE), which would be a tremendous tactical mistake. If he just finesses these February 3 states and says, well, I'm going to Michigan, it says, man, this guy is in desperate shape and he can't win in a middle ground state like Missouri, a southern state like South Carolina, or a western state like Arizona.

BRAZILE: Bob is absolutely right.

BLITZER: All right. Hold on one second. I want to show our viewers some of the numbers we got in our exit polls.

We asked our viewers about Howard Dean's temperament, does he have the right temperament. Take a look at these numbers. We'll put them up over here.

Dean has the right temperament, 56 percent said yes, 39, almost 40 percent, said no. You look at those numbers -- and you've looked at a lot of numbers, Donna, over your career -- what do those numbers say to you?

BRAZILE: Look, I still believe, Bob, that Howard Dean can go out there and capture some delegates. But his campaign must begin to act like a campaign and not a movement. It's turning off a lot of voters; it's not bringing on people anymore. And he needs to really focus now on coming up with a national appeal, a national pitch to reach a more diverse audience in the coming days.

NOVAK: I am very (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to pronounce candidates dead. They come up and bite you too many times. But he's dead. He's really dead.

He only did 25 percent in what is his best primary state. I would say the threat right now to Kerry -- not much of a threat -- comes from Edwards. But he has grave difficulties in trying to put it together. But I would say that Dean, unless Kerry shoots himself in the foot -- and I don't think John Kerry is a foot shooter -- I think Dean is dead.

BLITZER: All right. Well, let's take a look at some other numbers that we got from our exit polls as well. We asked our exit poll people who participated what their opinion of Howard Dean, if they had a favorable or unfavorable. Fifty-six percent of the people who voted here said they had a favorable opinion, compared to 40 percent, who had an unfavorable opinion. I've got to tell you, looking at the other candidates, especially John Edwards and John Kerry, a lot lower favorable numbers for Howard Dean.

BRAZILE: Oh, there's no question, Dean has to overcome a huge hurdle.

Bob, I don't think he's dead, but he's still wounded. He's no longer bleeding. The guy got off the mat, he's now back on his feet. He has an opportunity next week to go out to Missouri, go to New Mexico, go to Arizona, find a place and win something.

NOVAK: I'll tell you what his trouble is. That after he calms himself down, he puts his coat back on this week, tries to be subdued, he is still saying that three Democratic United States senators have the blood of 500 American service people on their hands. That's terrible. That's a terrible thing to say.

Now, some of his hot-blooded young supporters might say that's what we need from Dean, but that turns ordinary Democratic voters off. Don't you think?

BRAZILE: Well, that's not going to help him grow the electorate. That's not going to help him, you know, appeal to a more moderate audience that he will face in the coming campaign. So again, I think for Howard Dean to survive the next couple of weeks, he has to really...

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: Don't you think he has to win at least one primary Tuesday?

BRAZILE: Absolutely.

BLITZER: We'll see if he does next Tuesday. We'll all be back watching.

Donna Brazile, Bob Novak, thanks very much.

Joe Lieberman says his campaign is a cause. He vows not to drop out. But what's the realistic road ahead for the former vice presidential nominee? We'll go live to Lieberman headquarters and more.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LIEBERMAN: Thanks to the people of New Hampshire, we are in a three-way split decision for third place.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: He's now with a fifth-place finish, but Senator Joe Lieberman insists he's not out.

Our Jeanne Meserve is over at Lieberman campaign headquarters. She's joining us now live.

What's next for the senator from Connecticut, Jeanne?

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, if Joe Lieberman is anything, he is an internal optimist. He says the people of New Hampshire have put him in the ring and he is going to stay there. He is going to compete in the February 3 states.

Campaign officials say they will be throwing everything they have at South Carolina, Oklahoma and Delaware, with the recognition that he has to come up with a win in one of those places. Their hope is that voters there will be looking for a moderate alternative to John Kerry and Howard Dean. But you have to ask, is that wishful thinking?

Lieberman moved to the state of New Hampshire. He put a lot of time in here. He spent a lot of money. And still, he wound up in the single digits. If his campaign is finding any comfort in the results here, it is that neither Wesley Clark nor John Edwards had a particularly good night here either -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Jeanne Meserve over at the Lieberman campaign headquarters. They're breaking down that headquarters. The noise you were hearing was the equipment being removed.

Thanks, Jeanne, very much.

Let's get a little analysis of what all of this means. Once again, our CNN political contributor, Carlos Watson.

Carlos, we have some numbers. I want to put them up on the screen. We asked some of the voters in our CNN exit polls their ideas on various issues.

Take a look at this. As far as ideology is concerned, who voted tonight? Forty-six percent describe themselves as liberal, 45 percent described themselves as moderate. Nine percent said they were conservative. Maybe only nine percent, that probably underscores why Lieberman came in fifth.

WATSON: Well, two things. One, timing is everything. And he missed the critical bump.

When people were looking for an anti-Dean alternative, they found it in Iowa. It didn't happen in New Hampshire, where both he and Clark hoped that it would. It happened in Iowa, and he missed the train on that one.

The other thing that's critical here is, when he advertised, he didn't advertise himself as a committed liberal progressive or even progressive moderate Democrat. He was unequivocal about saying, I'm going after McCain Independents, which for a lot of Democratic voters, even moderate primary voters, that said, oh, you're a conservative Democrat, and probably turned some of them off.

BLITZER: All right. Let's talk a little bit more about those moderate voters. Once again, let's go back to this screen. Take a look at some of the exit polling that we did.

And look at this. Among moderates, people who describe themselves as moderate voters, John Kerry got 43 percent of that vote. Howard Dean got 18 percent. Joe Lieberman only 10 percent of those people who voted tonight in the Democratic primary who describe themselves as moderates.

What does that say to you?

WATSON: Well, cutting through all of that is the drive for electability. And again, one of the things the Kerry campaign did well, and I don't think they get enough credit for, is in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire they moved the conversation from a referendum on Howard Dean, which is what Iowa was about, to a conversation about electability. And that was defined by a Vietnam vet, by a Yale graduate, by a three-term-plus senator from next-door Massachusetts.

And we can't forget that in three of the last four contested New Hampshire Democratic primaries they've chosen Massachusetts-elected officials. Dukakis, Tsongas, and now John Kerry.

BLITZER: What does Howard Dean have to do next Tuesday to remain a viable candidate?

WATSON: I think Howard Dean is going to do two very interesting things. First and foremost, I think he's going to pursue what I call the Schwarzenegger strategy, meaning that he will -- you'll see him on late night television, you'll see him on the "Leno" show, you'll see him as you did on "The Daily Show" last night with Jon Stewart. You'll see him in a lot of other venues that aren't traditional political venues.

BLITZER: He was on "Letterman" doing the top 10.

WATSON: He was on "Letterman." And you might even see him, if he can get on, on shows like "Dateline" and "Entertainment Tonight," really looking for, how can I reach voters not in one retail small state, but how can I reach voters across seven states?

The other thing that you'll see him do is -- I guarantee you will see an e-mail blitz start tomorrow, where he reaches out to that base of 600,000 supporters and says, if ever we needed you, if ever we needed your money, if ever we needed your commitment and your time, we need it now. And you'll see him sending those e-mails out and raising money.

Wolf, he's raised $1.8 million just since Iowa. Many people don't realize that, but despite the loss and despite the speech that wasn't received well, he's raised as much money and maybe more, because we don't have the final numbers, than either Kerry or Edwards, who came in first or second.

BLITZER: All right. Carlos Watson, we'll continue this analysis. Thanks very much for that report.

WATSON: Good to see you.

BLITZER: Let's take a look one more time now at the New Hampshire primary returns.

A big victory -- a very big victory for John Kerry. He's captured 39 percent of the vote. Howard Dean at 26 percent. Wesley Clark 13 percent, a battle for third place with Senator John Edwards of North Carolina at 12 percent. Joe Lieberman is down at fifth place with nine percent. Dennis Kucinich gets one percent of the vote here in New Hampshire.

Al Sharpton not a real factor here in New Hampshire. We will be a factor, by all accounts, in South Carolina one week from today.

Before we go this hour, we want to take one more look at how this evening went.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: I love New Hampshire.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: I really appreciate all that you've done. The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum. And I am very grateful.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go! Go, Wes, go!

CLARK: Four months ago we weren't even in this race. We had no money. We had no staff. We had no office. All we had was hope and a vision for a better America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LIEBERMAN: You and I both know that the national pundits didn't expect this. Did they?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

LIEBERMAN: As a matter of fact, this morning the national newspaper put four of their candidates on their front page. Not me. But today the people of New Hampshire put me in the ring, and that's where we're going to stay.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDWARDS: And here in New Hampshire, 10 days ago we were 20 points behind General Clark. And look at what we've done. This momentum is extraordinary.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: If George Bush wants to make national security the central issue of this campaign, we have three words for him we know he understands: bring it on!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bring it on!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bring it on!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bring it on!

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP) BLITZER: And CNN's in-depth coverage of the New Hampshire primary doesn't end here. Stay tuned for a special edition of "LARRY KING LIVE." That starts right now.

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