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CNN Live Event/Special
Results Come in for Super Tuesday
Aired February 06, 2008 - 01:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
J. KING: Here's the finish line. That makes you the Republican nominee. Here's our rough guess of where McCain is about now, emphasis on rough, because we don't know a lot about tonight. And you see Romney somewhere around here, Huckabee somewhere around here. Romney a little bit ahead, based on what we know so far.
But, this can all change, because California is 53 different races. The winner of each congressional district gets delegates. Right now, John McCain is winning up and down the state. But it's very, very early. We need to see how the congressional delegates go. But you could have something.
Now, watch these numbers up top. I want you to watch these numbers up here. If John McCain runs the state, meaning he wins all the congressional districts, then he comes way out here.
But if Mitt Romney or Governor Huckabee -- probably Mitt Romney in the state of California. Governor Huckabee is not viewed as very strong out there. If he starts winning, the lines start moving again. And the numbers start moving, too.
So this is very dependent, Larry, on how these congressional districts go as the -- things come in. You could literally see a swing of as many as 100 delegates, based on how the congressional districts break in California. And we're very early in the count.
And that's exactly the same, if we switch it over and go to the Democratic. You see right now Senator Clinton is winning all up and down the state. We don't have a good sense of the districts yet, but again, the numbers can move based on the congressional districts.
And so California is going to be a fascinating study, and it's going to be a fascinating study, Larry, for a number of hours. I think it will be past breakfast, maybe heading into lunch, before we start deciding those congressional districts. But if McCain and Clinton keep the early numbers they have in California right now, they're going to end the night very happy.
L. KING: Isn't Obama doing very well in Los Angeles itself, John?
J. KING: Let's come back out to our map, Larry, and I can answer your question. This is the delegate map. Now we'll come back to our election map. And you see the early -- let me clear this so no one is confused.
Again, just about 20 percent of the vote. Nineteen percent of the vote in. Senator Clinton winning statewide. In Los Angeles at the moment, to answer your question, let's bring it out, 28 percent of the population of the state.
And at the moment, no -- the answer is no to your question right now, Larry. Senator Clinton is getting 58 percent. Only 8 percent of the vote in in Los Angeles, though. Big city, as you know a lot better than I do, Larry. So with 8 percent of the vote in, it's Clinton blue right now. We have a long way to go before we know if that's truly the case.
It's a very big state. The votes are starting to come in. As you see now, even just in the few moments, Obama starting to pick up a little bit in San Francisco, up here in the northern part of the state. But it's very early on. Remember this as your early look at California. The light Clinton shade of blue, we'll see if that holds up as the count goes on.
L. KING: Thanks for an excellent job, as always, John King.
Ari Fleischer, this -- is this obviously going to be the largest turnout election ever?
FLEISCHER: It sure seems so. I remember in 2000 when John McCain was the upstart, the maverick, challenging George Bush. Huge turnout then. And we're seeing it even bigger on both sides right now.
Frankly, there's more energy and passion, I hate to say it, on the Democrat side than on my side. But both parties, a big turnout. And that's a good thing. That's what you want for this country.
L. KING: Do you expect that conservative movement against McCain to go away?
FLEISCHER: No, it will never go away, unless John McCain becomes the nominee. And then he's going to have to do something he does not have a history of doing, and that's really tack back and appeal to the people who he's previously picked fights with.
It's a lot less ideological than you think; it's a lot more personal. And that's hard, because John has a history of kind of poking his finger in your chest and saying, "I'm right; you're wrong." And the conservatives resent that.
And so this is why John McCain's first duty, if he is the nominee, is to try to clear up these wounds with Republicans, with the base. Because he's got the middle, which is very exciting for Republicans, unique to John McCain. And we need it this year, because somebody has got to take that middle if the Republicans are going to keep the White House. That's McCain's strength. He's got to, first though, come back and rally the base.
L. KING: David Gergen, don't you have to generally run to the middle? And if McCain runs to the middle, does that take -- when he's the nominee, if he's the nominee -- take him farther away from the base he wants? GERGEN: Well, that's his dilemma now, Larry, because he -- since he hasn't closed the deal tonight, we'll all be watching very, very carefully on Thursday when he goes before a big conservative convention in Washington, D.C., what David Kean (ph) and others who are going to be organized there, and see where his language goes.
Because in order to bring those conservatives along with him, which he did not get tonight, he may have to throw them some red meat. He may have to make some pledges that will cause him problems with independents in the general election.
And that's the very reason that a lot of Republicans didn't want to have this race extended, because they worry that he's going to have to go farther over to appeal to conservatives and make pledges that they may not want to make in order to win the general election. That's part of their issue.
There's also something else going on here, Larry, tonight, and Ari would, I think, be able to speak to this. But if you look at some of these southern states, these states that Republicans ought to win in the general election, there are actually more people voting here, voted today in the Democratic side than on the Republican side. Like Georgia and Tennessee. There was such a big outflow of voters.
That also raises questions for Republicans and a John McCain candidacy. He didn't win those southern states tonight.
L. KING: Do you agree, Ari?
FLEISCHER: It's a problem. I think the passion and the energy are on the left this cycle. It's a reflection of the -- how difficult the mood is in the country. People think things are on the wrong track. How Unpopular -- I hate to say it -- that my president, George Bush is. All of these things have tipped the scales where there's more passion on the left.
Now having said all that, though, this is the wonder about John McCain. He, uniquely among Republicans -- maybe Rudy Giuliani, but he's gone. John McCain can win the middle.
Here's another thing to think about for future, if Obama and McCain are the nominees. The Hispanic vote could go back Republican. A big breakthrough if that's the case. There is an issue between Hispanics and Obama. He has not yet done well with them. McCain, because of -- because of his position on immigration and his moderate record, can win that group. Or do better than Republicans usually do with the group.
Fascinating dynamics. The Rubik's Cube of politics is turning the cycle, and no one knows which way it's going to come out.
GERGEN: I'll tell you what...
L. KING: Well put.
BUCHANAN: The southern strategy... MARTIN: Larry, Larry.
L. KING: One at a time.
MARTIN: You talk about the Latino vote. That is going to be critical. But they have been shifting to the Democratic Party.
The Republican Party as a whole, they have really attacked this whole issue. They have ticked off Hispanics. George W. Bush did a great job in 2000, 2004 coming out of Texas.
FLEISCHER: But that's my point. John McCain, uniquely, can bring that back toward the center. The Democrats (ph) can still win if John McCain can bring nice margins.
MARTIN: If the state -- but I think if the conservatives force him to be even more aggressive than he has been on immigration, that's going to be a problem for them. I think they -- I think that they will rally behind Democrats.
FLEISCHER: One thing on John McCain. He won't change on a lot. John McCain's position on immigration...
L. KING: Ed Schultz -- Ed Schultz, do either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama have to shift any, to the center?
SCHULTZ: No, I don't think they do, Larry. I think that the turnout that we've seen tonight shows that the country is ready to cross a few lines to take maybe a different candidate, to try something different to get that change.
As far as John McCain is concerned, you know, I had a long conversation with Sam Brownback today from Kansas. You know, it's not like John McCain doesn't have any conservative friends.
And I asked him about what kind of judge would John McCain put on the Supreme Court. And Brownback thinks that McCain has really secured the position with a lot of conservatives, that he would appoint a judge like a Roberts or an Alito and would move the court to the conservative advantage in the conservative ledger.
So I think that this is a real manufactured story by conservative talkers that John McCain can't appeal to conservatives. I think he can.
L. KING: All right.
SCHULTZ: It's about the Supreme Court. And just win, baby, just win. That's what it's going to come down to.
L. KING: Thanks, Ed.
All right. That's it for me tonight. It was great to be with you. We'll be back tomorrow night at our regular time, 9 Eastern, 6 Pacific. And one of our guests will be the irrepressible, Michael Moore. Anderson Cooper will be taking over. And we're going to turn it over right now to my man, Wolf Blitzer, for the latest update -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you very much, Larry. Sounds good right now. Larry, we'll see you back here tomorrow.
Let's take a look and see what has happened. It's just after 10 p.m. out on the West Coast right now. See what's happened on this remarkable day, this remarkable night. Super Tuesday.
States won, on the Democratic side first. Hillary Clinton, on this day, she's captured so far, according to our projections, Arizona, California -- that's the biggest prize of the day, New Jersey, another big prize, a big prize, Oklahoma, Arkansas, where she was the first lady for many years, Massachusetts, despite -- despite the endorsement that Barack Obama received from Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. Her home state of New York, as well as Tennessee. Those are the states Hillary Clinton has won on this day.
But Barack Obama has done very well himself. Look at this. He's carried Alabama, Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Alaska, Connecticut. That's a significant gain for him. Georgia in the south, his home state of Illinois, Minnesota, and Utah. All going to Barack Obama.
Let's take a look at the Republican side and see what's happened on this day on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee, he's done amazingly well for a guy that doesn't have much money and was written off by a lot of the so-called experts.
He's carried Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia, his home state of Arkansas, and Tennessee. West Virginia he carried earlier in the day at the Republican convention there. Mike Huckabee doing remarkably well in the home states in the south.
John McCain, he's captured the biggest prizes out there for the Republicans on this day. Arizona, his home state; Connecticut; Illinois; New Jersey; Oklahoma; the biggest prize, California; Delaware; Missouri, a winner-take-all state, as is New York, a winner- take-all state. McCain doing remarkably, amazingly well on this day.
Mitt Romney didn't do as well as he had hoped. But he still managed to get wins in Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, his home state of Massachusetts, Montana, and Utah.
Mitt Romney is going to have to take a close look at where he stands right now. He said earlier in the evening he's moving ahead with his campaign. He has no, absolutely no intention of dropping out.
He's got to take a close look. Big disappointment for him in California. McCain carries California. That was a state that he clearly had hoped to carry. Had Romney carried California, it would be a very different picture right now. He didn't. As a result, we're going to have to take a close look where he stands.
But John McCain clearly moving ahead in this contest. It's been a very good day, Anderson, for John McCain.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: What's fascinating about the results is that, for all these campaigns, there's going to be information that gives all of these candidates hope over the next couple hours and the next couple days, no doubt they're going to be looking at the exit polls. They're going to be able to -- what the voters said made them cast their ballots.
And then in each campaign, they're going to be selectively picking and choosing things which give their candidates hope, which allows them to move forward. We're going to do some of that in this next hour. Bill Schneider and Soledad O'Brien are here, looking at the exit poll information. We'll talk to them, shortly. We'll also hear what David Gergen, Jeffrey Toobin, as well as Gloria Borger, Carl Bernstein, Ari Fleischer, Roland Martin, as well as Paul Begala. We'll talk to all of them right after this short break. And our coverage on line at CNNpolitics.com. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: And welcome back to our continuing coverage. We're still awaiting projection results from Missouri for the Democrats, New Mexico for the Democrats. Also, Alaska for the Republicans.
We still have correspondents out in the field at the various campaign headquarters. Let check in with them now. First, let's go to McCain headquarters and Dana Bash.
Dana, clearly, an excellent night, as far as McCain supporters see it. What is it that gives them the most hope going forward, in terms of the numbers that they have seen?
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Missouri and California, there's no question about that, Anderson.
Earlier in the night, you know, we projected that John McCain was going to win some of those states where you are in the northeast. That was something that was expected. He was doing extraordinarily well in the polls leading up to today.
But the nail biters, really, were for John McCain, Missouri, and especially, especially California. We know it's not over yet, because it's very complicated in figuring out who won what particular congressional district there.
But look, the McCain campaign now, this is a campaign that, they were a little bit reluctant to sort of use the F-word, frontrunner. And that is a word that John McCain finally used tonight. They say that, if you look at the map, that they have won from coast-to-coast, and they feel a lot more confident about the fact that he can go forward, even just given the numbers, the raw numbers in terms of the delegates.
What John McCain did tonight, really, really interesting, Anderson. In the refrain that he used in his speech tonight, he said, "I'm a Republican because." And over and over he said, "I'm a Republican because I like lower taxes. I'm a Republican because I like smaller government and judges who don't dictate from the bench"
That right there was evidence of the challenge still, the big challenge still, Anderson, that John McCain has. And that is as you've been talking about tonight. That is uniting the party, uniting the party, many members of whom don't really see him as a true conservative. That is going to be a challenge going forward.
COOPER: Well, that is certainly a challenge in Arizona. Mitt Romney won among conservatives. How does John McCain, how does the campaign attempt to woo conservatives? I mean, you have Rush Limbaugh devoting an entire program yesterday to bashing John McCain.
BASH: That's right. And you have another very influential conservative, Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family, saying today that he simply could not vote for John McCain.
You know, what he has been doing -- I've been watching him on the campaign trail going through all of these states. He's been ticking off a number of conservatives who he's actually got traveling with him, saying, "See, look at the company I keep. I really am a conservative." Talking about his record. He's going to continue to do that. As we said, he's been making phone calls.
On Thursday it's going to be a very important day in this dynamic that we're talking about. There's a convention in Washington called the Conservative Political Action Committee. That is something that happens every year. John McCain did not go there last year. This is really sort of a crucial Mecca, if you will, for conservatives.
He is going to speak on Thursday. That is going to be, McCain campaign thinks, their chance to really reach out to the -- to the sort of grassroots and the conservative movement and make clear to them that he is one of them.
But you know, on the other hand he is still saying, Anderson, that "I might not be sort of the darling of the conservatives," but he points out time and time again, even more so recently, that he does, he has proven he can do well with independents and even some Democrats.
So he's trying to also make the case at the same time that he's a Republican who can expand the Republican Party and maybe even compete in states where you are in New York, not just in the Republican primary but in a general election, which Republicans haven't been able to do successfully in some time -- Anderson.
COOPER: Mary Snow in Boston -- Mary Snow at Romney headquarters.
They've got to be disappointed, especially perhaps surprised, even, by the results of Mike Huckabee, the strength of Mike Huckabee's performance tonight. Moving forward, what is that Mitt Romney is looking at? What numbers is he looking at that makes him believe he can move forward?
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, Anderson, that is the big question. He's saying that yes, he can. But that was before California. And this campaign was really banking on a big win there.
They're going to be pouring, of course, over the delegates, how much delegates -- how many delegates they can pick up in California. But, you know, the other big question mark is Mike Huckabee. Because Mitt Romney had been saying since Florida that this is a two-man race. He was saying that he had momentum in southern states like Georgia. He went there yesterday thinking he could do very well there. And he did not.
He is expected, the convention that Dana was just mentioning on Thursday. He's still saying that he's going to go there, and he's going to press ahead. The campaign had been looking at other primaries.
But, you know reality is that setting in. And the big question is just how far can you go after this?
COOPER: Suzanne Malveaux, who's covering the Obama campaign, many think that the Obama folks are looking to give them hope clearly Barack Obama's performance among white male voters in the state of Georgia was very promising. It was a huge uptick from the number of -- percentage of white male voters who voted for him in South Carolina.
Moving forward, what is it that gives them the feeling that they have momentum, even though they did not win the state of California tonight? And how are they doing on money?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, really, Anderson, he really just has to hold his own. And that is exactly what he did this evening. He won more than a dozen states or so.
And they looked at this, and they said, "We know that Senator Clinton will win more states and more delegates." But if he can come in with a 100-delegate spread with Clinton, and HE wins some states, then he is going to do well here.
Now, they're still crunching the numbers. They say this is a delegate race to the very end. But they feel that, look, he had a cross section of states that he won. He did have -- take some in the south as well which really shows that he is electable.
And when it comes to money, Anderson, that is what they're pointing at. Look at the future: $32 million raised in January, compared to Clinton's $13.5 million. They say that they have time and energy to put that into advertising. And they're much more comfortable taking bite-size, they say, two or three states focusing on them, as opposed to the 20 that you saw this evening. And that they believe the longer this race lasts the more they get to know Barack Obama, the better he does -- Anderson.
Candy Crowley, at the Clinton headquarters, Hillary Clinton is ready for a long race, is she not?
CROWLEY: She absolutely is. And they knew that coming in to tonight. I mean, look, they're overjoyed to have California, that obviously was where all the attention was where the delegates are. They're going to split them with Barack Obama.
The funny thing is I have had some inside the Clinton campaign say they really think what did help them in some ways is that, running up to the super primary, they had a lot of this talk about how Barack Obama was on the move and how he was overtaking Clinton here and there.
And then for her to take some of these states that looked in danger, of course, is -- makes it look like more of a victory. Massachusetts comes to mind. They had Senator Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama. Senator Kerry the other one from Massachusetts, as well as the governor there. Clinton won it quite handily.
She is winning in California. We've declared her the winner. There was some thought that perhaps it might be a real race out there. So they believe that they not only won the expectations game but they won the delegate game -- Anderson.
COOPER: All right. Candy Crowley, Suzanne Malveaux, Dana Bash, and Mary Snow, thanks for all your reporting tonight.
We're going to take a short break. Our coverage right here continues from New York. And you can check us out on line. You can look at the current delegate count, the actual vote count right now, CNNpolitics.com. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: After a long, long night, CNN now projects that Senator Barack Obama will carry Missouri. This has been an extremely tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but now we can project that Hillary Clinton will lose to Barack Obama. Right now with 100 percent of the precincts actually reporting, Barack Obama at 49 percent to Hillary Clinton's 48 percent.
If we zoom in on the actual vote, 402,530 for Obama, 394,391 for Hillary Clinton, 88 total delegates at stake. But they're going to have to divide up the delegates according to congressional districts and a proportionate rate as a result. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will emerge with plenty of delegates from Missouri.
But at the same time, Barack Obama will have bragging rights that he carried this bellwether state, a state we've been watching closely all night.
Let's go to John King. He's been watching it more closely than anyone, I think, right now. You're getting to know every place in Missouri almost by heart. This turned out to be a lot closer on the Democratic and the Republican sides than we probably imagined.
J. KING: I have been scrolling through these counties all night long on both sides. And look at this. Look at this at first glance. Remember, Clinton is the lighter blue. So you look at this map from a distance, and you say, "Oh, well then, Clinton won Missouri."
BLITZER: It looks like a landslide. J. KING: Because she's winning everywhere. But we've said this before, and we'll say it again. You win by getting the most votes where the people are. So we come out to Kansas City, Jackson County. It's about 11 percent of the population. Barack Obama winning. Pretty good margins there.
Well, watch this. When we come back over, college town here, Columbia, University of Missouri, two smaller counties there. Not much of a population. Winning the youth vote. That has been the matter for Obama all along.
Now remember, she was way ahead early. Early on, St. Louis was out. St. Louis County, this is the suburbs right out around. Look at this for Barack Obama. That is big.
And still a little bit of the vote out, but he's winning big there. It's the only place in the state with votes still out, which is why we're comfortable projecting him as the winner now. Because look at the margin of him right there.
And let's come back out here. St. Louis City. Again, huge margin. For Barack Obama in St. Louis City. So what he has done here is, if we go back to the full statewide map, is she wins the majority of counties by far. But the people live in the cities.
BLITZER: So what does it mean, John, as far as dividing up the delegates in the state of Missouri? In Missouri, there are 72 delegates at stake. Sixteen of those are super delegates. Those are the senators, the congressmen, the party leaders. They're sort of -- going by and large. Most of them, lot of these states go with Hillary Clinton.
But among the other delegates at stake, 72 at stake. Given this make-up and how close it is, I would assume they're going to divide it up relatively evenly.
J. KING: They'll divide it up. If you use a congressional district proportion, remember, more people means more congressional districts. So Barack Obama would get an edge in that regard. But relatively, you mention super delegates. Remember, the endorsement of Senator McCaskill, Democrat for Barack Obama. She's one of those super delegates. But Senator Clinton does tend to get most of them as you move through the states, early on. So a lot of undeclared, about 800 total. About half, I think, have decided so far.
But we have to go through the map. And you have to lay a congressional district map over this and go through the proportional rules of the Democratic Party. But it will be -- she will get a good chunk of delegates out of Missouri, even though he will win a very narrow victory. He will get more, because again, he's winning in the larger areas. So many people here. You have several congressional districts in this small slice of Missouri. The rest, of course, spread out.
BLITZER: It will be interesting to see, John, if there are any of these states, including Missouri, where the person who wins the popular vote doesn't necessarily win the delegate vote. I assume that's going to happen in some of these states. I'm not sure about Missouri, as you point out. But it could happen elsewhere around the country.
J. KING: Absolutely.
BLITZER: All right. We'll continue to watch. But this is a big win for Hillary Clinton in Missouri. A big win for John McCain.
J. KING: Barack Obama. Barack Obama.
BLITZER: A big win for Barack Obama in Missouri and a big win for John McCain in Missouri, as well.
J. KING: Absolutely.
BLITZER: All right, John, thanks very much.
Let's go back to Anderson Cooper, who's watching all of this with the best political team on television.
COOPER: Wolf, thanks very much.
One thing that makes it confusing for our viewers -- and no doubt in the next day or two is going to still confuse all of us, frankly, is that there are enough results in all of this for each of these candidates and each of these campaigns to kind of put their positive spin on it.
BORGER: There's going to be a colossal spin war between the Obama campaign and the Clinton campaign. Because what we might end up with tonight -- we don't have official delegate counts, Anderson -- is that, after all of this, and after all of the tens of millions of dollars that have been spent on this, there could be a difference of as little as 50 to 75 or 100 delegates between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Now, is that a victory for Hillary Clinton, because she didn't have the momentum coming into this? But is that a victory for Barack Obama, because two or three months ago, people didn't know who he was and he was way behind in the polls? Heading forward, we're going to have to see who has the momentum.
COOPER: Can you answer your own question?
BORGER: I'm not the arbiter of such things. I think it is dead even. Honestly, I think it's dead even. I think they are --
COOPER: On the Democrat side.
BORGER: On the Democratic side. They are going to have to continue this race.
Another thing, Anderson, is that the popular vote -- when we count up the popular vote in all of these states, what's the difference going to be between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? We don't know.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN ANALYST: I do think there are limits of spin. You cannot, if you are Mitt Romney, spin this --
BORGER: There are no limits.
TOOBIN: Yeah, but if you are Mitt Romney, you cannot say this was a good night.
BORGER: No, I'm talking Hillary and Barack Obama.
COOPER: But if you are Mitt Romney, you say that you have momentum among conservatives, that even in John McCain's home state, conservatives voted for him.
TOOBIN: No, if you are Mitt Romney, you can say you have really, really good hair. That's really about all you can say tonight.
He had a terrible night. He had an absolute fiasco of a night. Mike Huckabee has a better argument to be the alternative at this point. I mean, the irony is, Mitt Romney woke up this morning saying it is a two man race, and I think he may be right. He just doesn't happen to be one of them.
COOPER: That is Mike Huckabee's line, tonight, during his speech.
BORGER: Okay, wait: I got an e-mail from somebody in the McCain campaign who was just watching us now. He said, "Disaster for Romney. No way to spin it."
TOOBIN: See? There you go.
BORGER: That's spin.
COOPER: That's spin, right there.
David Gergen.
DAVID GERGEN, SR POLITICAL ANALYST: Where to go with all of this? I think a couple of things have emerged tonight. Barack Obama's organization really helped him a lot tonight, because, many of his wins are actually in caucuses. He wouldn't have -- you know, he is now up to around 13 states of the whole 22 and of those six are out of caucuses.
COOPER: What does that tell you?
GERGEN: Well, it tells you on the ground that he has superior organization. She actually won more than half, I think the actual primaries when you get voters out in massive numbers. She did very well in places. I think, California and New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts. She, you have to give her a lot of credit for that. He did get Missouri, big, big win for him. Got Connecticut. You know, but, Minnesota was a caucus state. That was also big win. But I think the other thing that we haven't really talked much about tonight. There is a lot of race and gender that is really dividing the democrats. He has consolidated his whole now, Obama has over black voters. COOPER: Yes, we're seeing that in the over 80 percentile.
GERGEN: Overwhelming. She is consolidating her hold among women. They were voting overwhelmingly for her unless they're black. Then they tend to break mostly for him. She seems to be consolidating among Latinos. This is a lot more about race and gender than I think the democrats are ultimately going to be comfortable with.
COOPER: Also, among Asian-Americans, I remember the last numbers I saw, Hillary Clinton had a big lead.
GERGEN: Yes, she did. In California, they begin to come into play. But if you look at those California results, 29% according to the exit polls in California. 29% of the people that voted on the democratic side were Latinos. And they went overwhelmingly for her. So, identity politics it can be -- can get very ugly, very quickly. And can -- and the democratic party, if you go too far, the republicans have got the thing, whether McCain goes too far to the right and loses the middle. The Democrats have got a problem if this gets too nasty it can fracture the party for the fall campaign.
COOPER: Gloria mentioned the overall vote. Wolf Blitzer has got some numbers. I'm going to go to him shortly. But first I just want to quickly get some takes on. I'm getting a lot of e-mails from viewers who are confused about what they should take away from tonight. I mean, what do they tell their families tomorrow morning about what happened tonight? Carl?
CARL BERNSTEIN, CNN, CONTRIBUTOR: The delegates are splitting down the middle. But at the same time, Obama has won more states. And if you take away the super delegates that are already committed to one or the other, in these past weeks we have seen Obama winning. In a way that never would have been expected a few months ago. So I think you have to say that there is some momentum going Obama's way. But each time we get up to the threshold in which the press is saying he has got so much wind behind his back. he's going to knock Hillary Clinton over he doesn't knock here over. She is still standing and she's going to be standing. You know endurance is a real factor in this, and the Clintons endure.
COOPER: Ari, what's your take away from tonight?
ARI FLEISCHER, W.H. PRESS SECRETARY, 2001-2003: People should look at this like a boxing match, of undetermined number of rounds. And the democrats are going to keep at it. They are evenly matched. They are both powerful. They are both strong. And they're both going to keep going.
COOPER: It's like world wrestling when there's more than one or two fighting. I mean, there's people jumping in the ring and jumping out.
FLEISCHER: It's really a boxing match. It's really one-on-one. Republican side, it's messier because you got the three-way split. Which if you only had a one-way split, it might have been different night for John McCain but it's not. COOPER: As long as it remains a three-way split, it favors John McCain.
FLEISCHER: I can't see John McCain losing if it remains a three- way split.
The other factor. Young people have a lot to do with this.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I keep using the Nascar reference. You got two fast cars on both sides. You know, and folks are jockeying back and forth. It's all about strategy. That is what the campaign is all about. From Clinton's standpoint, she wants to maintain as David said strong support among white women. She's not doing that strong among black women obviously. Hispanic women, there's obviously a split there. Arizona women, he did well tonight for Obama. Clinton is strong among both upper and middle class voters and women. Obama - he is trying to say I have a broader coalition, young voters getting them, keeping them engaged, getting them out to vote. And obviously, African-Americans and also white men as well. And so, it's interesting on how you're going to call the coalitions. I think he is trying to have the philosophy of really this sort of 60% kind of thought process. Where she's saying, look, 50-plus won. I want to win.
COOPER: If you're a Clinton supporter, can Obama tonight talked about bringing more people, new people into it. I mean, has he maxed out on new people coming in?
PAUL BEGALA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No. He has been remarkable. I have to look at all the turnout numbers from tonight. But so far, we had 26 primaries and caucuses. And every single one of them more people have voted in the democratic primary than the republican. The only exception being Florida. Really, that wasn't a contest. The democrats only got beaten by 200,000. the only take away here is that democrats should be really happy. 72% of democrats say they'd be happy if Hillary is their nominee. 71% say they'd be happy if Barack Obama is their nominee. It's the republicans who have the problem here. One word we never stated tonight except Ari Fleischer in a moment of admirable candor is Bush. It's the reason why the republicans were unhappy with their field is not because they lack talent. Romney, Huckabee, McCain. These are spectacular talents. It's because President Bush is an anchor on his party. He is a leg weight and he's going to cost them the presidency.
Here is the other factor that plays on to it. It's a tough environment for republicans. Hillary Clinton is the great equalizer. She takes the bad environment and makes it right back to 50/50. She is so unpopular especially in the ticket splitting the Midwestern states that will decide this election. So, bad environment. George Bush unpopular. Give me Hillary Clinton. Republicans can keep the White House.
MARTIN: I go to tell you a pretty funny story. Obama speaks at Boise State. Obama speaks at Boise State with some 13,000, 15,000 people. He picks up 16,000 votes in Boise. Should have had the poll on Saturday at his rally. All the people who showed up. That's who voted for him.
COOPER: Let me check in with Wolf Blitzer whose got some overall numbers in terms of people who actually voted.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN, ANCHOR: It's amazing and when we showed these numbers, Anderson. And I want you to pay attention all our analysts as well. The popular vote on this day on this super Tuesday. Look at how evenly divided the democrats are. Hillary Clinton with 49%. Barack Obama, with 48%. But let's zoom in and see what the actual numbers are. On this day, more than 11 million democrats voted so far, about 76% of the precincts nationwide in all the contests reporting, 5,763,143 for Hillary Clinton. 5,687,890 for Barack Obama. More than 11 million people voted on the democratic side. A difference of only about 100,000 or so. Which is a tiny, tiny percentage. It shows you how divided these democrats are.
On the CNN delegate estimate count, the all important delegates. Remember democrats will need 2,610 delegates to -- to -- that are -- that are under consideration today. But they're going to need the delegates to go win the democratic nomination. So far, on this day, our estimate is that Hillary Clinton has 543 delegates to 413 for Barack Obama. She has actually won 350, 193 super delegates as they're called, the party leaders. And Barack Obama has 307 delegates that he has won 106 super delegates. That is the estimate that we have right now. Those numbers are going to change.
Now, let's take a look at the republican side on this super Tuesday. John McCain got a very good day. He got about 40% of the popular vote to Mitt Romney's 31%. Mike Huckabee at 21%. Ron Paul at 4%. But take a look at the actual numbers. And you'll see how the republicans are doing. A little bit more than three million for McCain, 2,300,000 for Romney. 1,604,000 for Huckabee and 315,000 for Ron Paul. Those are all the republicans. 76% reporting of the precincts reporting. It's a lot fewer than the democrats. Many more democrats are voting in these contests than republicans.
Let's break down the delegate estimates that we have right now. McCain, we estimate right now at 392 delegates to Mike Huckabee's 96 delegates. 91 delegates for Mitt Romney. 5 so far for Ron Paul. This is a -- these are the delegates that we estimate going back to all of the beginning. Here are the delegates to date.
While we are here, let's take a look at the republican, race so far, going all the way back to Iowa, New Hampshire and everything that has happened since then. We estimate, as of right now, 482 delegates for McCain. 168 for Romney. 117 for Huckabee. The all important number though, 1,191 needed to nominate the republican nominee at their convention at the end of the summer in St. Paul.
Let's look at democrats in blue right now. The Democrats, Hillary Clinton - we estimate right now has 591. She is the light blue. The darker blue, Barack Obama with 476. Still very competitive when you think about the 2,025 delegates that are needed, that are needed to nominate the democratic presidential candidate, in Denver t the end of the summer. You can see how close this democratic contest is. Much more of our special coverage coming up. Here at the CNN Election Center. Remember, you can always go to cnnpolitics.com. Get more inside information/.
There have been horrible tornadoes that have developed over the past several hours in Tennessee and in Arkansas. We're going to get a complete update. Unfortunately there are fatalities. This is a bad story. We'll let you know what's going on when we come back.
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COOPER: We have been following some killer storms that have taken place earlier this evening. 18 people have died at the last count. Arkansas and Tennessee, and Kentucky as well. Let's check in with Chad Myers at the severe weather center. Chad, what's the latest on the storms?
CHAD MYERS, CNN, METEOROLOGIST: Well, we're up to 23 now. The same number of tornadoes, 51. There are 23, 13 dead in Arkansas, 3 in Kentucky. Now, 7 in Tennessee. And it's been an ugly night with over 50 tornadoes on the ground. I want to show you some pictures. These pictures are literally just in from near Hartsville, Tennessee. If you're in Nashville, north east of Nashville and you're seeing the sky glow this is a natural gas pumping station near Hartsville here in the northern section of Tennessee in Trousdale County. Now, this has been burning for a while. Flames almost 400 feet in the sky. But it was not manned in the evening hours. No one injured here. They're going to shut the natural gas off. This fire will burn itself out and then they'll put this plant back together. But for now, our affiliate, WSMV sending us these amazing pictures. You can see this thing, now 40 miles away, the glow in the sky.
Some other pictures I want to share with you now, from Jackson in Tennessee. It's that town right there. Jackson, Tennessee had a big tornado earlier today, could have been an F-4 as they're saying now, a very large tornado. That means 150 miles per hour or more. It destroyed a girls' dormitory at Union University. Heavily damaged the boys' dorm. But classes will be canceled for the rest of the week. They don't even think they can repair this dorm whatsoever. 86 people injured here and not one fatality so far. 15 people were taken to the hospital but a couple in critical condition. But so far so good here. And another place that had some damage in Memphis hit by two separate tornadoes today. Two, two in two different time periods like an hour apart.
And now, we'll take you to the Sears building here at the Mall. And as we take a look at these pictures. This is the inside of the mall here in Memphis. Down by Memphis Airport on the southeast part of town. And it was just an ugly night for these guys here. They're still picking up pieces. But so far the three killed in Tennessee were killed near this mall in a factory where the roof collapsed but not in this mall. When you see the daylight pictures of this tomorrow, you're going to wonder how everybody survived that.
Tornado warnings right now for Lexington, Kentucky. Even if you don't get a tornado with this storm, and it's very close, even moving through Lexington, the winds are going to be over 70 miles per hour with the storm. Another area that's been hit hard, Nashville. You have another storm here south into your, just to your northwest. Now at this point in time, the warning just expired. We have seen a little bit of rotation. But it has the not been impressive. Then, down to the south, seeing here, this triangle here, this purple box, that is where the tornado warning is going now in Mississippi. So, this storm kind of spreading its wings a little bit all the way down to the Gulf Coast.
I suspect we will even see some tornadoes down in Louisiana and down into maybe Mobile moving into the east Birmingham because the watches have been pushed to the east and to the north even into middle Tennessee at this point in time. It's going to be a long night. Anderson.
COOPER: Well, let's hope that death toll does not increase. Chad, we'll continue to follow that throughout the evening and of course, tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING. Chad, thanks very much for that. Let's check in right now with John King who is crunching some numbers looking in particular at the state of California. Looking at it county by county. John, what are you learning?
JOHN KING, CNN, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Anderson, look at this - this could be stunning if these numbers hold up in California. Remember, all week long Mitt Romney has said he wanted a two man race. John McCain against Mitt Romney. Well, Mike Huckabee didn't compete out in California. 30% of the vote. Mike Huckabee was out there for our debate, went up to San Francisco with me. 30% of the vote is in. John McCain is winning by 18 points. And if you look at the map of California. He is not only winning statewide so far literally from the Canadian border to the Mexico border, I'm sorry the Oregon border not Canadian border up there. But he's winning from the border to border. He is winning San Diego. That's the home of Duncan Hunter, he was a presidential candidate. Duncan Hunter, hardly a liberal, a very conservative republican. John McCain is winning San Diego county right now by double digits over Mitt Romney.
Let's move up the coast. Orange County. That's the home of the republican party in California. Conservative Orange County. John McCain is beating Mitt Romney. It's only 11% of the vote and so we need to watch it. It's been holding as the vote tally comes up. If this holds up, Anderson, the whole out thing out here, California is proportional, it's not winner take all. Mitt Romney was hoping even if he lost narrowly in California to come away with a whole lot of delegates. At the moment, it is not close. You can't win a congressional district if you don't win a county. And at the moment, Mitt Romney is not winning anywhere in California. That is stunning if it holds up and it will give John McCain a huge basket of delegates.
COOPER: Right. Will that mean Mitt Romney would win no delegates?
KING: If that holds up like that, Mitt Romney would win no delegates or very few delegates because to within a delegate, to win delegates, you need to win congressional districts. And these are the counties. You can't win a congressional district without it. We can play around a little bit. If we come to the delegate map here and we bring California out. Bring it out a little bit now. These lines, those are congressional districts. And it's a big state. It's hard to come out. But these are the congressional districts. You need to win those to get the delegates. Now, we're going to do something. And as I do this, I want to say these are projections. Wolf Blitzer gave the conservative counts earlier based on what we know. Assigning the statewide delegates but as we go through the states east to west and assign the proportional delegates let's come out here. Go back to the national map.
This is what has happened so far. All these states were assigned based on winners, the peach is Huckabee, the red is McCain, the darker red is the Romney. The states with slashes in them are proportional delegates. We have gone through and done what we think, relatively conservative estimates. And let's go back to beginning of the night. Here is where we started tonight. This is the finish line. That makes you the republican nominee. We started the night somewhere right around here. Everybody is in here. OK. Watch those lines. Now here is where we are now. And again, these are projections. We need to go to our, through congressional districts and sign them up. Watch those numbers now. And watch those lines.
Now you are seeing John McCain way out here. Again, it's an estimate. We need to go through the congressional things. If this holds up especially the numbers in California. As a matter of fact, do you want to come back to California. Take the telestrator off, and come back to California. If the numbers, right now. We gave Mitt Romney some of the delegates in California. If numbers hold up as they are right now. Watch that. And you move this around. It moves even forward, and it gets John McCain out here with everyone else back here. These states that are not colored in are the states that are left. If this is what it really looks like in the morning. It is very hard to catch up at that point. That's the rough calculation.
COOPER: The Romney folks have been talking about trying to get in the 400s in terms of delegates in order to stay competitive.
KING: Exactly. Exactly right. And again, this is our estimate going through the proportional states and assigning. And our team is looking at going congressional district by congressional district. And that will change and it could change substantially. But we work relatively conservative when we punched them in. When we come up with something like this especially if the California numbers hold. And again, I want to switch over to this side. Don't look just yet. Let's clear the telestrator.
Let's go back here. We go back to the democrats pre-super Tuesday. This is where we started the night on the democratic side. And again, here is where you got to get to win. I want to make that line a little thicker. We started with the candidates roughly equal. They're way back here. Clinton got a little bit of a lead. Again, this is projection. We come way out here. We're going to assign a lot of delegates. By the time we are done, we're going to assign a lot of delegates. But we still think that we're going to be somewhere in the ballpark of even. Now, again, these are rough estimates. And California is another place where you have to make those calls based on the congressional districts. But let's go back to our other map. This time, it's a little bit different. Let's go back to the election map. On the democratic side, you are seeing, even though Senator Clinton at the moment is posting up pretty good lead in California. You are seeing Obama with pockets of support especially if you come in here in the San Francisco area up in here. Pockets of support which will get you delegates. Because if you are winning counties, those counties overlap in the congressional districts and you get more delegates. So, you're seeing at least a split so far, we got 30% of the vote in. Obama with some pockets of supports, contrast that with what you see on the republican side, which right now ...
COOPER: So, in terms of the democratic side, we're still not sure the delegate count for Senator Clinton or Obama?
KING: Much harder to do California at the moment because Obama is running stronger in some places. Again, with 30% of the vote. If this holds up, if these proportions hold up, she, this is the mother load of delegates on the democratic side. She is going to get a majority as opposed to what many people were saying coming in that maybe they'd get an even split. If the map holds up like this, she will get a majority because population is here, down in Los Angeles area. That is a, not only 28% of the state population, there's a large chunk of congressional districts. So, she is winning big. She will get them. And he is getting 30% of the vote in Los Angeles county now. So, the vote, democratic rules are proportional. So, if she is getting 60, near 60% of the vote in that area, she's probably, again, lay over the congressional maps. It's a little complicated. But if these numbers hold up she will get a majority of the delegates, more, more than many people are thinking a 50-50 split. If this holds up, she'll do better than that.
COOPER: Fascinating. We're going to continue to follow this. We got a lot more coming up right after this break. Also, you can follow all along at cnnpolitics.com. You can look at this map. You can watch the real numbers as we watch them as they come in. Stay tuned. We'll be right back.
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BLITZER: On the democratic side, only moments ago, we showed that more than 11 million democrats have voted on this day. And it's roughly, evenly split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Perhaps 100,000 difference for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. Let's take a look at New Mexico right now. Because this is indicative of what is happening so many other parts of the country. In New Mexico right now, 38% of the precincts reporting, Barack Obama has 48%. And Hillary Clinton's 48%. If you zoom in take a look and see how close it is. Obama, 26,120. Hillary Clinton, 25,747. On this super Tuesday, this is one of those states, New Mexico that we have not been able to project a winner on, on the democratic side. Precisely, because it is this close. So what a night, what a day it has been Anderson Cooper. I think New Mexico sort of underscores how close this contest is between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and it will continue beyond today. COOPER: And when you look at the popular vote with some 11 million voting on the democratic side and just about 100,000 separating these two candidates, there is no way this thing is ending anytime soon.
GLORIA BOHGER, CNN, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It was such an interesting night tonight, because he, Barack Obama didn't deliver the knockout punch. But she just can't shake him. You know. It's one of the races that - I have never seen anything like it. It is going to continue until to at least Texas, Ohio, March 4th, maybe even beyond.
COOPER: Jeff Toobin clear your calendar. Cancel your vacations.
JEFF TOOBIN, CNN, SENIOR ANALYST: All done. I do think that we did achieve some clarity on the republican side. I think John McCain will be the republican nominee. It wasn't clean. It wasn't elegant. Mike Huckabee did better than a lot of people expected. If you just look at the delegates there is no way either Huckabee or Romney can catch up. So, I think we did learn that much tonight.
COOPER: David Gergen?
GERGEN: Well, there are so many things here to sort it out. I am quite struck by the fact that when all was said and done that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama individually got more votes than John McCain. Each one got about 5 million votes tonight and John McCain got about 3 million. At the same time, John McCain I think is closing in on the republican nomination a lot faster than any body is on the democratic side. You know, I thought those John King numbers is a horse race. Really, I think were very helpful in understanding he is starting to close in to getting it because of a divided field.
On the democratic side, my sense is we're going into a two, three weeks now which will probably favor Obama. He is likely to get some wins out of the next two, three weeks. He may get some fresh momentum going into Texas and Ohio. But for the first time, it becomes possible that neither Hillary Clinton nor Obama will go into a convention with enough votes to win. They may be short. I mean, neither one has much more, more than a third of the way there. We have had more than half the voting.
COOPER: And then Michigan, Florida, do the votes become.
GERGEN: They became a huge donnybrook.
TOOBIN: Sign up the lawyers.
BOHGER: We have our legal analyst.
TOOBIN: Oh, no.
COOPER: Very quickly. Your take away from tonight?
FLEISCHER: Well, I think the big news is the margin in California. We are watching all night long. Saying, close, close, is it Huckabee? Romney is not having a good night. But the big headline has got to be McCain's margin which delivers him the greatest number of delegates.
MARTIN: The people who should be sick are people in Michigan and Florida. Imagine had they stuck with the process they would be huge power brokers. They failed themselves not the party.
BEGALA: It's a changed election. Democrats trying to choose operational change and Hillary inspirational change. And Barack with change. The Republicans, they're interesting people but fundamentally saying they want to make the Bush economic policy permanent and the Bush Iraq war permanent and all the Bush policies permanent.
COOPER: Does endorsement at this point from John Edwards matter?
MARTIN: Hey you take anything you can get. Anything you can get to give you an edge.
COOPER: Well, our coverage continues from Atlanta. Fredricka Whitfield and T.J. Holmes. Let's toss it down to them. Guys, take it away.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN, ANCHOR: Anderson.
T.J. HOLMES, CNN, ANCHOR: Anderson, thank you so much. Yes, it's two in the morning. We are not done. No, we are not done. Hello, everybody.
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