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CNN Live Event/Special
Clinton Wins Pennsylvania; Margin of Victory Still in Question
Aired April 22, 2008 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: But we're watching this very closely with John King, who is over here.
You're looking for indicators in these early votes right now to get a sense of what's going on.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And the indicators are, looking at the map now, Wolf, that it is filling in a way that would suggest to us that Senator Clinton is performing well where she needed to perform. And I'm going to start here in Philadelphia, where Obama is ahead right now, and emphasize it is early, just shy of 20 percent of the vote here -- 54-46. That's eight points. That's not bad, but that margin is not enough...
BLITZER: He needed more. If it's going to stay 54-46 in Philadelphia, that doesn't bode well for him.
KING: The dream scenario for the Obama campaign, if they were to win the State of Pennsylvania, was to come out of Philadelphia with somewhere in the 80,000 to 85,000 net vote margin, pick up another 12,000 to 15,000 in the suburban counties and hope that was enough to offset what they expected to be a Clinton advantage out here.
What we're waiting to see, we'd love to see Scranton. That's a blue collar, smaller city, a little under 2 percent of the population. Hillary Clinton has roots there -- a blue collar town.
Allentown, another steel city. Bethlehem right near that. Redding just over here. That's what we want to see that fill in -- 5, 6, 8, 10 percent of the population, as you add them up.
But as you watched the results what did we say early on?
We wanted to watch a blue collar corridor down here. It is beginning. We want to see more, but it is beginning to fill in for Clinton. Investigate gives you an indication she's starting to get these votes in the areas where she needs them.
Another key place was out here, the western, very similar -- blue collar, steel, coal, the railroads. Erie, Pennsylvania Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, all along the rivers out here in the west.
And let's turn this out for a second. Look. Erie County, about 2.5 percent of the state's population. She's winning right now. Only 9 percent of the population. She's winning almost 60/40. That's a pretty good margin for her, what she needed to do out in places like this to have an impressive win in the state. The question, though, Wolf, is when Philadelphia fills in, these suburbs are critical. A number of new voters registered there, a number of Republicans switched to the Democratic Party. So we want to see what the turnout is over here in the suburbs.
But looking at the map as it fills in now, the cities -- Philadelphia, we expect it to go Obama. Pittsburgh is a key test for Senator Clinton. But this western wall, starting to fill in her colors. Obama with some pockets of support. Harrisburg is the capital. A decent sized African-American population there. Only 1 percent in, but Obama winning big there.
Looking at it now, it is filling in as you would have expected based on the late polls. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the small cities and if that margin inside Philadelphia holds up, because while that's Obama winning, it's not winning big enough.
BLITZER: Because he really had to do well. This is, what, 12 percent of the population, Philadelphia County right there, a large African-American population in the City of Philadelphia. He really had to do very, very well to offset how he would do in other parts of the state.
KING: Yes. They had to maximize their advantage in Philadelphia to counter Senator Clinton's advantage across most of the state otherwise. This bottom corner -- again, we can't say it enough -- this down here, the southeast corner of the state, about 30 percent of the statewide population. The Obama campaign needed to make it a very high percentage of the Democratic vote today and needed to run up a big margin. Again, they had hoped, Wolf, for about 100,000 net margin coming out of this corner to offset what they thought would be Clinton over there.
That was their dream scenario. Again, the Obama campaign will say Clinton should win this state, we'll have the expectations conversation all night long.
But when they sat down at the table and said how do we win, their winning counted on coming out of this corner right here with a net of 100,000 votes.
We'll watch as they fill in. At the moment, not filling in that way.
BLITZER: And she and her supporters will say, assuming she wins in Pennsylvania, which was expected, of course, that they managed to do so despite being vastly outspent by Barack Obama in these final few weeks of this campaign.
KING: They will make that argument. And the one way we will know in the coming days as to whether that argument is working is can she raise desperately need money. because going on to the nine remaining contests, Barack Obama has a pretty healthy amount of money in the bank. Senator Clinton is at the point where she can get through the next two weeks, which is Indiana and North Carolina. But after that, if the money does not start to come in, she's going to be in financial trouble.
BLITZER: That's why if she squeaks through a win in the popular vote in Pennsylvania, she could be in trouble. On the other hand, if she shows some impressive gains in Pennsylvania and a nice decisive win, that could encourage her fundraisers to go out and get some more money.
KING: She has to convince Democrats across the country -- whether they're going to write a check or go online and give her $25 or whether it's a donor who can give her more, say $500 or $1,000 -- she has to convince them that there are enough -- A, that they like her enough to support her or that they have enough doubts about what Barack Obama did in a state where he spent so much money, their doubt level is high enough to say we need this to go on longer.
BLITZER: All right.
John, stand by. Continue to crunch the numbers.
We're going to walk over and check in with Campbell Brown. Actually 6 percent of the precincts have reported right now.
And just as quickly as that, CNN now projects that Hillary Clinton is the winner in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton, based on the actual numbers that have come in, the actual votes that have been tallied, as well as the exit poll results we got earlier, CNN projects Hillary Clinton is the winner in Pennsylvania.
We're going to have to wait to see how much of a winner, how big that margin will be. But she can breathe and her supporters can breathe a whole lot easier right now knowing that she has won this critical state -- a huge state, a state that the Democrats will desperately need in November if they're going to beat John McCain.
And right now, Hillary Clinton is the winner in Pennsylvania, based on the numbers, based on the counties that we have seen.
You can see Clinton headquarters right now in Philadelphia. They are excited, as well they should be, because their candidate, Hillary Clinton, has won in Pennsylvania. They needed to win tonight. She won tonight.
Our Candy Crowley is over there in Philadelphia.
I don't know if we'll be able to hear her, if she's there -- Candy, go ahead.
How excited are these people in Philadelphia over at Clinton headquarters?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, remember that in these headquarters on election night, these are the supporters that have been knocking on doors of people that have been working for months for this kind of victory. So, obviously, this is the fruition of their work. So you have a lot more excitement given the kind of investment that they've made in this campaign. Look, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton said anything over 50 percent is a win. She is projected to win at over 50 percent, obviously. So it is a good night for her. Obviously, the Obama people -- or at least his supporters -- will argue that he narrowed down what was once a 20 point lead.
But there is no taking away this night from these people down here, her supporters and her campaign workers, or from Hillary Clinton, who we expect to hear from in about 45 minutes or so.
BLITZER: And we'll be carrying her remarks live. We'll also be hearing from Barack Obama. He's already on to the next state, Indiana, which votes in two weeks -- two weeks from today, together with North Carolina.
Even if she wins by a narrow margin once a hundred percent of the precincts have reported, Candy, there is no doubt now that she's won in Pennsylvania, she is moving on.
CROWLEY: Oh, absolutely she's moving on. In fact, they made it clear that even if she lost, she was moving on but look. But, look, a win goes to her superdelegate argument. And that is, we need to win Pennsylvania in the fall. He cannot close this deal because of the working class, primarily. They believe a blue collar -- you know, the bulwark of the Democratic Party -- they believe he needs to show some life within that demographic.
So it will be interesting to see how this breaks down.
But, obviously, she is going down. They think this propels her into Indiana and North Carolina. They note that there are more delegates at stake between those two states on May 6 than there are tonight in Pennsylvania. So lots of delegates at stake on May 6. Clearly, they think that this, you know, just ejects her -- or projects her into both Indiana, which is very, very close, and, to a certain extent, North Carolina, where Obama clearly holds a healthier lead.
But nonetheless, you know, she's got some juice out of this tonight and they intend to work it when they go to Indiana tomorrow, as a matter of fact.
BLITZER: And the superdelegates will be watching -- the undecided superdelegates, Candy. The Clinton people keep saying she wins the big states, the biggest states with the most Electoral College votes, including Pennsylvania right now.
How significant of an argument to the undecided superdelegates is it that, with the exception of his home state of Illinois, she has won the biggest states?
CROWLEY: Well, you know, look, that is clearly her argument. What the push back is about that is well, you know, does she think New York will become Republican or Massachusetts or some of these other big states that she won? The Obama camp, obviously, also says well, he won Missouri. He won in South Carolina. He won in Wisconsin. So those aren't insignificant states.
But the fact of the matter is, they understand in the Clinton campaign there has to be more to the argument than just I can win in these big states. She has to pull up in the popular vote. And she'll do some of that today. She has to pull up in the pledged delegates. It is awfully hard for some of the superdelegates, at least the ones I've talked to that are not decided yet, it's hard to envision a scenario where Barack Obama ends up this race in June with more pledged delegates and more of the popular vote and somehow the superdelegates so well, no, we're going to give it to Hillary Clinton.
So they're aware of that in the Clinton camp, that both of those arguments -- the pledged delegates and the popular vote -- she's going to have to be able to show something in order to kind of bolster her case, as well I can win in the big states, which is what her argument is now.
BLITZER: And for viewers in the United States and around the world who just might be tuning in, CNN projects Hillary Clinton is the winner in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania the biggest of the remaining contests. Nine more to go after tonight.
Candy, you were saying that Hillary Clinton expected in that room where you are, what, in about 40 minutes or so from now?
CROWLEY: Yes, before the evening news here in Pennsylvania. So, you know, generally, they like to time it so they hit the top of the news. So 10:00 -- they would like to have it done by then. And now that most of the networks have projected her as the winner, you can expect to see her within the hour -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And the crowd will be enthusiastic. And at some point, we'll also be hearing from Barack Obama. He's already at his rally in the next state, Indiana, getting ready two weeks from today, May 6.
Candy, you've got a lot of excited people behind you.
Candy, thanks very much.
I want to go back to John King, who has been looking at Pennsylvania.
And I think we're getting a better sense right now, John, how she managed to do it, because Pennsylvania, you know, a few weeks ago she was way ahead. He narrowed it. But today Hillary Clinton is the winner.
KING: And she's the winner, Wolf, because she is winning where the blue collar votes are. And to Candy -- we want to get back to Candy's point in just a minute.
Barack Obama winning Philadelphia, the African-American population, not so far -- by as big a margin as we had thought he might and that he needed to win under his scenario.
But as you watch this corridor fill in, it's starting to fill in for Senator Clinton...
BLITZER: And Senator Clinton is the light blue and Barack Obama is the darker blue.
KING: She's the lighter blue. She is the lighter blue. This corridor here is starting to fill in for Senator Clinton. This is the argument the Clinton people will make as we go forward. And as they make this argument going forward, I'm going to take us back in time, if you don't mind.
Let's look at 2004. This is George W. Bush. He just lost.
John Kerry wins 51-48.
BLITZER: He carried Pennsylvania.
KING: Bush -- Kerry won. Not since 1988 have the Republicans carried Pennsylvania. But look what happened. George Bush wins the vast middle of the state, loses in the big cities and in these blue collar areas -- Allentown, Scranton, the places Senator Clinton is winning tonight.
Let's go back four years. Pretty much the same map, when Al Gore carries Pennsylvania 51-46.
I'm going to jump an election, 1992. Let's pull out to the map here. Bill Clinton wins. Ross Perot in that race, you remember, 45-36. This is what -- the argument that Hillary Clinton is going to make, this argument. She's going to make the 1988 argument, that if you nominate Barack Obama and he can't win among blue collar -- Casey Democrats, they call them in Pennsylvania -- Reagan Democrats they became known across the country -- Catholic, white, blue collar, lunch bucket workers who might be culturally conservative. Economically, probably lean to the Democrats; culturally, they have guns. They might lean to the Republicans.
The argument the Clinton campaign will make is that if Barack Obama can't win in places like this and like this, then he will be like that. And he will be Michael Dukakis come November. And this state will go back to a red state for the first time since 1988.
Now, can they make that argument? Can Barack Obama have a compelling counterargument?
He has the evidence to make a compelling counter argument. But this is now the argument among superdelegates. The Clinton campaign will say look at Ohio. Look at Pennsylvania. Look where the Reagan Democrats are -- blue collar Democrats who sometimes vote Republican in general elections.
Their argument in the Clinton campaign -- and they're on the phone doing this to the superdelegates -- if you nominate Barack Obama, you risk this. BLITZER: You get another Michael Dukakis is what they'll say.
KING: That is the race going forward. So as we watch the results come in tonight in Pennsylvania and we watch these blue collar areas fill in, you can be certain that at least the Clinton campaign is telling the superdelegates we hope you would come our way. We understand you're not ready to do that. Hold tight and watch. Watch if we can do this, as we pull out and we move on to West Virginia, Kentucky and Indiana -- places where you have those flower income, blue collar, lunch bucket Democrats, who have proven -- George Bush is president of the United States because Al Gore could not carry West Virginia -- a state that had gone Democratic way back in time.
That is the argument the Clinton campaign will make. And it is an argument the Obama campaign has to counter and counter aggressively, because if you talk to superdelegates privately and other party leaders, they are a little worried.
BLITZER: All right. I want you to go back to Pennsylvania for a second, because 10 percent of the precincts have now reported. Hillary Clinton ahead, with the actual vote 55 percent to 45 percent -- 112,000 for Hillary Clinton to 93,000 for Barack Obama. Ten percent of the actual vote in. And we're going to be getting a lot more votes throughout the night.
But we've projected that Hillary Clinton is the winner -- is the winner tonight in Pennsylvania.
And as we watch what's going on in Pennsylvania and we begin to look ahead, remember we're standing by. We'll hear from the winner of the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton. She's going to be speaking to her supporters in Philadelphia.
We'll also be hearing from Barack Obama. He's going to be speaking to his supporters. He's already moved on to Indiana. Remember, go to CNNPolitics.com. You can follow the results as they come in county by county by county and get up to the moment information about who's up and who's down. If you want that kind of specific information, watch us. Also have your laptop ready at CNNPolitics.com.
We'll take a quick break. Much more of our coverage from the CNN Election Center right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Hillary Clinton is the winner in Pennsylvania. That's our projection here at CNN. She wins the Democratic presidential primary.
And here are the actual numbers that are coming in. about 12 percent of the precincts reporting. We have, with these actual numbers, Hillary Clinton with 53 percent to 47 percent for Barack Obama. So far, she has 137,819 votes to 120,493 votes for Barack Obama. But based on the actual votes that have come in, where they've come from and based on the exit polls, CNN projects that Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania, will now move on to the next two big states, Indiana and North Carolina, two weeks from today, on May 6th.
Let's get some reaction from the Hillary Clinton campaign.
Joining us now from Philadelphia is Terry McAuliffe.
He's the chairman of the Clinton campaign, the former chairman of the DNC.
First of all to you, Terry, congratulations. Congratulations to the Clinton campaign.
What do you think?
TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: Well, thank you, Wolf.
It's absolute bedlam behind me because they've all -- all the networks have now called it for Hillary. It's exciting.
You know, I spoke to you earlier, Wolf. I said this is going to be a win for Hillary Clinton tonight. And what happened is, I think what the voters here in Pennsylvania, they trusted Hillary Clinton on the issues of health care, job creation, to deal with the international crisis that may come about.
And I think, secondly, were outspent three to one. They did a lot of negative advertising against us in the mail, on TV.
And with all of that, Hillary Clinton was, once again, able to win one of the key Democratic states that we need to win in the general election -- Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida. Hillary has proven that she is the best one to take on John McCain in the fall because she's winning the states that matter.
I just found out that literally hundreds of thousands of people are going to HillaryClinton.com signing up, saying we want to fight with this woman through this process. So it feels good tonight.
BLITZER: He's got a lot more cash on hand than Hillary Clinton right now going ahead to these next states in Indiana and North Carolina. You seem to have a problem fundraising compared to Barack Obama.
What are you going to do about that?
MCAULIFFE: Well, first of all, we've raised about $180 million in this campaign. Last month, we raised $20 million, which just came out in the report, which was one of our biggest -- our second biggest month of the campaign. We're going to do better this month than we did last month.
And you know what? People are watching here tonight seeing once again Hillary Clinton -- throwing the kitchen sink at her. She was able to win because people trust her on the key core issues. And I think people realize that she is the best one to take on John McCain.
So we'll be able to do better this month than we did last. I think people -- literally, I just heard HillaryClinton.com. They're all going on it. They want to fight with her. We want to beat John McCain. We need someone as a fighter out there. Hillary Clinton has proven that she's winning the states that we have to win.
Senator Obama, they couldn't put us away here. They couldn't put us away in Texas, Ohio, New Hampshire. She's out there fighting and I think people want to help her succeed.
BLITZER: I know she's going to compete very aggressively in Indiana, where the polls show it's relatively tight. The polls right now in North Carolina right now show he has a significant lead in North Carolina, just as he won in South Carolina.
MCAULIFFE: Yes.
BLITZER: Will she give up, in effect, on North Carolina and focus all of her energy on Indiana or will she fight in both of these states?
MCAULIFFE: Oh, Wolf, we're not giving up anywhere. We're going on into Indiana, into North Carolina. We've got two of our best organizers -- Ace Smith is in North Carolina. Robby Mook is in Indiana. Hillary will be campaigning down there. I just was down Thursday and Friday in North Carolina, opening up all their offices. So we're going to have the resources to compete in two weeks in those two states.
Then we have, of course, West Virginia, where we're up in the polls. Kentucky a week after that, we're up in the polls. So we have a lot of states where Hillary's message on job creation, health care, dealing and ending this war in Iraq, finishing the war in Afghanistan. That message is working. So we're going to compete. There's nine contests to go, Wolf. Over nine million people yet to vote. We still have close to, you know, 700 delegates still to be chosen. There's a long way to go in this nominating battle.
BLITZER: Do you -- does it make any difference if she wins by 1 percent or if she wins by 10 percent?
MCAULIFFE: I will quote Senator Obama: "Fifty percent plus one is a win." I've said this a long time -- a win is a win. This was a big state. We were outspent three to one. Her message came through. People had written her off. You know, don't write her off. She's out there fighting every day.
And what she said on the campaign trail which I think resonated, you fight for me here in Pennsylvania and I'll fight for you every day as president of the United States of America.
So a win is a win. Senator Obama said that. Everybody will agree this was a big, important state -- once again, like Texas, like Ohio. Hillary Clinton has won another big state -- another big Democratic state and a state that is critical to the Electoral College victory for us on November 4th.
BLITZER: A very, very happy Terry McAuliffe. He should be happy right now. Hillary Clinton, his candidate...
MCAULIFFE: Thanks, Wolf.
BLITZER: ...has won in Pennsylvania. I know we're going to be hearing from her fairly soon, as well. As soon as she starts talking, we'll share her remarks with our viewers in the United States and around the world.
Terry McAuliffe, thanks very much for coming in.
He's the chairman of the Clinton campaign.
I want to get a different perspective right now from Senator Bob Casey, Democrat of Pennsylvania. He's a major supporter for Barack Obama.
A lot more subdued where you are right now at Evansville, Indiana. That's the next stop two weeks from today.
Senator Casey, what's your reaction to Hillary Clinton's win in your home state of Pennsylvania?
SEN. BOB CASEY (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Well, Wolf, we're still waiting for the final results. But I'll tell you, I think Senator Obama ran a great campaign here in Pennsylvania.
His first time as a national candidate coming into our state. I think he connected with people on his message of change, which he's already demonstrated that he knows how to take on the tough special interests. He's already demonstrated he can bring the country together with a really unique coalition of people.
We don't know what the result will be here, but I think he's got a strong foundation now to go forward, be the nominee -- but most importantly to have a foundation for the fall to beat John McCain in what will be a tough contest in Pennsylvania.
BLITZER: He outspent, in terms of television advertising and other advertising, Hillary Clinton by at least two to one, maybe three to one in your state.
Why couldn't he put it away? That's what a lot of people are probably asking tonight Senator.
CASEY: Well, I think, Wolf, Senator Clinton came into this day with tremendous advantages. When you have a member of your family running ahead of you, so to speak, as I did, that's a tremendous advantage coming into Pennsylvania. Senator Obama is a first time national candidate.
But I do think that the television advertising is might -- may be a little bit overanalyzed because the free media coverage here at CNN and networks around the country, newspaper, radio cover this race intensively. I really believe, though, that people in our state now know a lot more in a very positive way about Senator Obama -- his values, his faith, his ability to understand and identify with people who struggle.
No candidate in recent American history has come this far in their own life story. The people of Pennsylvania welcomed him with -- into their hearts and their communities. I think he's got a real strong foundation here to go on to the other contests, to be the nominee and to fight against John McCain, to prevent a third Bush term.
BLITZER: He did well among African-American voters. He did well with the affluent in your state. He did well with young people. Where he didn't do so well -- and you know this very well yourself -- is with those blue collar workers in several parts of the state. And some suggest some of his controversial comments in recent days may have played into those fears among those blue collar workers. You've always done well with them in running in Pennsylvania.
Was there a problem with that strong base of the Democratic Party?
CASEY: I really don't buy that argument, Wolf, because, look, I've been in a lot of elections. I've been in about seven in Pennsylvania in the last decade -- tough primaries and general elections. It's very difficult, if not impossible, to predict based upon a voter -- how you do with a voter group in the spring as opposed to the fall.
I think Senator Obama, when he's the nominee of our party, will be able not to just unite the party, but to do very well with those very groups that Senator Clinton was stronger with. And I don't think it's any question about that.
I think that the fall is a long way off. But I think he did himself a world of good to come into Pennsylvania, to talk about hope, to talk about his message of change, to talk about his health care plan, to -- also to focus on the mortgage foreclosure crisis, the price of gasoline -- all of the stresses, the economic stresses, in the lives of our working families here in Pennsylvania. I think we'll be able to do better with those groups in the fall than we did in the spring.
BLITZER: And let...
CASEY: And I think he ran a great campaign.
BLITZER: We'll be hearing shortly from Senator Obama, is that right?
CASEY: I'm not sure when it will be, Wolf. But I'll be looking forward to watching him.
BLITZER: All right, we'll be looking forward to airing it and letting our viewers see it, as well.
Senator Casey, thanks very much for coming in.
CASEY: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. CNN, once again, has projected that Hillary Clinton is the winner in Pennsylvania. With 17 percent of the vote now in, 53 percent for Hillary Clinton, 47 percent for Barack Obama. But based on those actual votes, as well as the earlier exit poll numbers that we got, CNN projects she is the winner.
Remember, we're going to be hearing from both of these candidates in the not too distant future. They're coming up fairly soon. We'll share with you their remarks from their respective rallies in Philadelphia, as well as in Indiana.
We'll take a quick break. Much more of our coverage, including Campbell Brown and the best political team on television. They're anxious to asses what's going on with this projected win by Hillary Clinton. They're coming up.
Remember, CNNPolitics.com -- you can watch the numbers coming in county by county as they change, CNNPolitics.com. That's where you want to go on your laptop.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: And we are back. It is official; Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania. I've got the best political team on television with me right now for a lot of analysis. And the drama continues because of what we were talking about earlier this evening. Yes, a win is a win, but it's also so much about the margin of victory for Hillary Clinton.
That we don't know yet, Gloria.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We don't know what the margin is going to be. But if you look at these exit polls, Campbell, it's very interesting and very good news for Hillary Clinton. She won among older voters, women, white men, lower income voters, weekly church goers and, get this, with Catholics, 68 percent. Now, Catholics are a very important swing voter constituency in this country in a general election. If you can win 68 percent of the Catholic vote, that's good for you.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Here's the issue and argument; she wants to make the argument that I'm winning blue collar voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. OK, Obama can make the argument you're not winning black voters. Her argument is he can't win in November. Is his argument she can't in November?
BROWN: The argument she is making is that those voters, those are Reagan Democrats. Those are voters that if Obama is not winning them may well end up voting for John McCain. MARTIN: But they're going to be voting against their own economic interests. I am simply not buying the notion that John McCain is going to pull those folks in because he is weak. Look, he has issues with the economy. If he goes to the Reagan Democrats and says, hey, I know there is a war going on, which I support. I know I support the Bush tax cuts, which you're really against. How is he going to make inroads with them? I am just not buying the argument that all of a sudden they're going to run to John McCain and lead him to victory.
BROWN: David, you're shaking your head.
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: This is a very significant victory for her. She did hold off yet another Obama charge in a big state. You have to give her credit.
BROWN: Where he was out-spending here.
GERGEN: Absolutely, big charge. She held him off in Ohio. She held him off in Texas. Terry McAuliffe is right about all that. But, still, it's late in the game and she needed a big victory out of tonight. The drama is whether she got the big victory. The exit polls suggest she did not. The number's we are looking at so far say she did not.
BROWN: What is a big victory, ten points?
GERGEN: She has to do Ohio or better. That's ten points. For a blowout victory, it has to be above ten points. Right now, it's running four, six, seven, eight. We'll have to see where it comes out. There is something else here, Campbell, tonight that I think should be disquieting for the Democrats.
You remember earlier in the year that most Democrats said, I like Hillary but I'd vote for Obama. I like Obama, but I'd vote for Hillary. Not tonight. This got to be so bruising, so poisonous, so hard hitting in the end, 17 percent of the people who voted tonight said if Hillary Clinton is the candidate, they'll either sit on their hands or vote for John McCain; 25 percent said if Barack Obama is the candidate, they're going to either sit on their hands or vote for John McCain.
BROWN: John King snuck back in here when I was introducing everyone else earlier.
KING: I was over looking at some of the county results on the map. Look, everybody here is making good points. The Clinton campaign is happy Roland's not a super delegate. But this is all bits and pieces of the conversation going on in the Democratic party. All night long and the cell phone call, the Democrats are a little worried about this, because they see a guy who has the map, Obama, built up a big, early lead.
We're in the fourth quarter of the game. Forgive the sports analogy. Why can't he finish? He seems to be out of gas at the end of the game. He may win, but he is sort of out of gas going to the finish line. And they're looking, is this how we want to send our guy to the general election?
Sure, he can raise more money. Sure, he can make tactical adjustments. But they're looking at it right now, looking at what happened in Ohio, looking at Pennsylvania, regardless of the margin, saying, ugh. They look at Senator Clinton. They know she has negatives as well. so the party -- the eighth year of the Bush presidency, an unpopular war, an economy at the verge or in a recession; all the fundamentals tell you the Democrats should be way ahead in this race. They're looking at national polls and many state battleground polls showing McCain very competitive. And the Democrats are looking at this going, my god. What is happening?
BORGER: If you go back to Ohio -- I was looking at our exit polls from Ohio, Campbell -- 44 percent of the Democrats in Ohio said they'd be fine if either of these candidates won. Now that's down to 38 percent.
BROWN: Isn't that a result of the negativity we've seen?
MARTIN: Absolutely.
BROWN: She has made gains by cutting him down and he has also made his own mistakes, granted. But is that what we're going to see from here on out?
BORGER: Absolutely.
BROWN: It's going to get uglier and uglier.
MARTIN: As you look at the numbers, the question is how can she expand her base? She can't. In order to go after him, you have to cut him up. You have to cut him down, drive up his negatives. They don't care if her negatives go even higher. Bottom line is they're there. They have to win.
BROWN: Do you agree with that?
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: Obviously they're going down and continue.
GERGEN: Listen, again, the margin becomes important. If she comes out of here with a five to six-point victory, that is not a big thumping victory. She is going to have a hard time raising the kind of money. She has to ask herself, at some point -- with five to six points, she doesn't close down the gap. John was talking about it earlier. All the scenarios he presented with all the different kind of voting patterns, Barack Obama still wins the popular vote at the end of the day, at the end of the campaign, if it is a five to six- point victory.
He still wins more pledge delegates. He still wins more states. It is going to be very hard to take it away from him. She has to ask herself the question, and the party elders, such as they are, have to ask the question, can't you guys make this a more positive campaign in Indiana and North Carolina? You're driving the whole party down. BORGER: It's been a fight of your not ready versus you're not trust worthy. That's not a message, a positive message of hope or we're going to take this country forward. And so I think that someone in the party -- and it may be the fund raisers. It may not be the party elders. It may be the folks who have to raise the money.
KING: Quickly back to Paul's point earlier, sometimes we try too hard. There will be a debate in the fund raising community and everywhere in the party and we're having it tonight about how big of a win needs to be a win. The bottom line is there is no reason for her to get out tonight. She won a big state and she can make an argument that I'm winning the votes that the party needs.
And she can go to the super delegates and say, yes, you're right; African-Americans will feel a grievance if I win this nomination, and Obama can make that case. That's his vote and he can get it and he will turn it out in record numbers.
She will make the case John McCain will make gains among the Reagan Democrats, who, for whatever reason, don't want to vote for Barack Obama. So the Democrats will keep having this debate that divides their party. Republicans are watching, saying, please.
BORGER: Go right ahead.
GERGEN: Seriously. Listen, the only way she wins this thing is if the wheels come off his wagon.
BROWN: Isn't that why she's staying in? There's been plenty of things that happened over the last week.
GERGEN: After Reverend Wright and after all these other things -- the big bet tonight was whether the wheels would come off the wagon in Pennsylvania. And the fact is he came short, but it doesn't look like the wheels came off. That's going to be her problem. I don't see her way to the nomination. The wheels are not coming off the wagon unless there is some new, big revelation. So why go completely negative in the next few races?
BROWN: Let me bring in some of our other panelists. I want to ask Donna Brazile about this because you talked about this in the past. To follow up on what we were just discussing, the negativity, that Hillary Clinton has made a lot of gains by going after him, and this has gotten increasingly negative over the last couple weeks. The danger to the Democratic party more generally?
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: There is no question that the level of attack has been a little unsettling for Democrats. We don't like to throw out the kind of mud we sometimes ascribe to our Republican friends. On the other hand, I think it's been key for Barack Obama to not only with stand these attacks, but to weather the storm. And clearly tonight, you look at the margin, he has weathered the storm.
He has weathered the attacks on his former pastor. He's weathered the attacks on the statements he made in San Francisco. And Senator Clinton had to win. She was heavily favored to win. This will give her the ability to go out there, as Terry McAuliffe said tonight, for people to go online and raise more money so she can continue to make the case she is winning states that will matter in the fall.
BROWN: But you don't think any of the undecided super delegates out there are looking at her and maybe hearing that electability argument that she is carrying -- you guys are nodding -- the big states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, the states that she's argued are essential?
BRAZILE: He also has the ability to perhaps expand the political electorate. No offense to my fellow super delegates, but over the last three electoral cycles, we've spent a lot of time campaigning in 20 states. And if that is the only argument, that we are going back to Pennsylvania, going back to California, going back to New York and Florida Michigan; and we're not ready to compete in Virginia; we're not ready to compete in Colorado; that argument will not resonate with every super delegate. Perhaps many super delegates but not every super delegate.
LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: That doesn't take into consideration the fact that you'll deflate half of the Democratic constituency who is excited about their candidate. They're not going to have a candidate at the top of the ticket. What's going to happen? It's like a tide that will recede back. You have a lot of people excited now. You've raised over 420 million dollars on the Democratic side. What happens when you lose one, either the first African- American or the first woman?
I do think there is another interesting thing. I was talking to Yahoo News tonight and it's interesting, they're looking at tracking. What are people searching for? And 80 percent of the searches for Barack Obama -- were basically for Barack Obama, but they were on negative terms and on rumor and innuendo; and I would say a lot of it pushed out there by the Clinton campaign. They were Jeremiah Wright. There were bitter. There were Brad Pitt, if you want to know the truth. There were a lot of different things.
But the search term for the people for Hillary Clinton were more substantive, policy oriented, economy, health care. What does that mean? It basically shows that people in this exit polling were making their decision at the last minute more favorable for Hillary Clinton. I think she is going to remain competitive and she's going to continue to use wedge issues as an advantage over his candidacy.
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: There is no joy in bringing up unpleasant things about people. I've had tremendous admiration for Barack Obama. The things that came out about him the last three weeks are sad to hear. They're not good, not positive. There is no joy in that. But the point about the Clintons, and Hillary Clinton, not just that they can win, but they do win. This is an admission against interests. What is our record against the Clintons -- Paul would know -- zero and seven? These people are winners.
John did this analysis -- I just put this to everyone -- showing Kerry and Bush, showing Dukakis and Bush, and then the contrast with Clinton. Now there is Kerry and there's Dukakis. They lose those Catholic voters, a lot of them. They lose those blue collar voters. Is Barack Obama to the right or to the left of Kerry and Dukakis? He is the most liberal senator in the U.S. Senate. He is to the left.
I mean, this is -- he was closing the gap in Pennsylvania. Hillary pulled it out. In the big picture, it seems to me her argument is very, very strong argument.
Paul's right about super delegates ought to be asking who can win. Isn't that the whole point?
BROWN: And the counter that we hear from the Obama campaign a lot is oh, well they'll make up the difference with young voters. But young voters are in no way as reliable as the voters that she is winning, the older voters, working class voters, who are more likely to go to the polls. You're talking about all of these newly registered voters who may be a little bit unreliable.
JAMAL SIMMONS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: In previous election cycles, maybe you could make that argument. In this election cycle, people have been saying that for the last four months, and younger voters keep showing up and they voting for Barack Obama in record numbers.
Let's take a look at the current voters. Among white men, Barack Obama has got 39 percent of the white male vote in Ohio. He got 46 percent of the white male vote in Pennsylvania. Among older voters, he got 41 percent of voters over 60 in Ohio -- I mean, in Pennsylvania today. He shrunk that gap from 41 percent to 19 percent.
So he did make up ground. I want to go back to Bill's point about your record against the Clintons. It's your record against the Clintons. It's your record against Bill Clinton. And Bill Clinton's name is not on the ballot. As we talked about earlier, this has been part of the drama of this election, that this is Hillary Clinton running for president, not Bill Clinton.
BROWN: I would say, as far as drama goes, that would be like down a little bit.
SIMMONS: Back to the point about whether or not he's (INAUDIBLE) there is something about Bill Clinton hasn't really -- I worked for him and I think he's a great candidate. And if he were running today, I would probably support him. But the issue is that when Bill Clinton ran, he didn't have a lot of coat tails. He didn't have coat tails in '94. He didn't bring a lot of congressional candidates through.
His name isn't on the ballot. Hillary Clinton's name is on the ballot. What we found is that Bill Clinton -- he won his primaries and he won the nomination.
BROWN: Paul?
PAUL BEGALA, CLINTON SUPPORTER: At some point facts are stubborn things. Senator Obama has extraordinary talent. He drew 35,000 people to a rally in a primary. He spent 11 million dollars on advertising, almost -- that's 9,550 ads, according to the Clinton campaign, that Barack ran. And he lost. He had a poor debate performance. He ran against a candidate who has been hammered and pounded and yet she won. I think these things do matter and they may matter to super delegates.
It's not going to be dispositive. It's not over. We have to run the whole thing out. I'm still waiting for the party elders to conduct honest elections in both Michigan and Florida, which I think the Democratic nominee will need to have done if he or she is going to run successfully in November, but I think we just let this keep rolling. But you can't deny the fact that this woman has achieved a pretty extraordinary victory tonight.
BENNETT: Jamal makes a fair point, it was Bill Clinton who won the election, but she did win in New York. It's not the name that wins. What wins is their politics. What the Clintons know is where the center is in American political life, and they go to that center. It looked to me like Barack Obama knew where that center was until the last month.
BROWN: All right. Guys, we have to take a break.
We're going to come back, a lot more analysis ahead. Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania, but by how much? We're going to have more numbers, a look at the margin. All of that coming up, stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
Hillary Clinton, the projected winner in the Pennsylvania primary tonight, based on the exit polls, based on the hard numbers that have actually come in. The ballots are being counted. CNN projects Hillary Clinton is the winner; 38 percent, actually, of the precincts have now reported. Hillary Clinton with 54 percent to Barack Obama's 46 percent. That's an eight-point spread in Ohio -- neighboring Ohio, she wound up with a ten-point spread, 54-44. We'll see how this holds up.
Right now, with 38 percent of the precincts in, 418,000 or so votes for Clinton to 350,000 votes for Barack Obama. But, once again, we projected that Hillary Clinton is the winner. If we take a look at the state of Pennsylvania right, now you see the light blue counties are counties where she is currently ahead. The darker blue areas are where Barack Obama is ahead right now, 38 percent of the precincts reporting.
I want to walk over to John King. We're going to be also -- I want to alert our viewers that we'll hear from both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama at some point, probably not too long. They want to speak, both of them, certainly while it's prime time on the east coast. That's the nature of politicians.
John, how did Hillary Clinton manage to achieve this victory? You've been studying these counties. And once again the light blue counties are Hillary Clinton. The dark blue counties are counties where Barack Obama is ahead right now.
KING: And there will be a debate, Wolf. You've heard the panel debating about how big of a win did she need to change the psychological dynamic of the race? As of right now, we are looking at a ten-point spread right there. We will see if that holds up as the night goes on.
Let me blank this out. How did she do it? Look county by county and in a big state like this, demographically and geographically, this is a thumping. We can debate the margins later. Obama's vote, his best vote, is coming here, 60-40 inside of Philadelphia, but they wanted about an 80,000 to 85,000 vote margin out of there. They're in the 60,000s right now. We'll see if these numbers hold up, two thirds of the vote in, 66 percent there.
We'll see if the numbers hold up. If they do and the numbers progress like this, it will be a big win.
BLITZER: Any hope, he had to really carry Philadelphia at a bigger margin.
KING: He carried 60-40, but he need a higher turnout and he needed a bigger margin than 60-40. Why? Because he needed a big turn out in this little blue corner here to offset the light blue everywhere else. We talked earlier about this blue collar corridor right down here. Let's go through some of these places; Allentown, Pennsylvania, only about 2.5 percent, Lehigh County. Look at this, 62 percent to 38 percent.
Only 12 percent of the vote in. We'll see if that holds up. But coming in, blue collar, lunch bucket Democrats big for Senator Clinton. Down here in Redding, 57-43. Again, about 40 percent of the vote in there. A big place for Senator Clinton there.
Slide back down to Scranton, where she has family ties, 78 percent to 22 percent. Only 12 percent of the vote, but a pretty lopsided margin there. It shows you that this is one place she needed to win. Not only is she winning, but she's winning big.
Let's go out here. Allegheny County is where you find Pittsburgh, very large Catholic archdiocese out there. Those voters were critical to Senator Clinton, 56 to 44.
BLITZER: That's 71 percent.
KING: The vote coming in quickly out there, and it's a big margin for Senator Clinton in a place where she very much need it. Wolf, all up and down western Pennsylvania, all the way up to Erie out here -- pull that out, Erie County again, 62-38. So Barack Obama won big in Philadelphia, not big enough. And Senator Clinton won hugely everywhere else, a giant swap.
He is winning a little bit in here. This is Harrisburg, where the state capital is, a small pocket of modest African-American population there. He is winning big in the early results there. Keep an eye on that. Also, some some college campuses in this area. But she won where she needed to win, the blue collar east, the blue collar west, most of central Pennsylvania and across what they call the conservative T, up from the center, across the New York border.
A very impressive, sweeping, geographical and demographical win for Senator Clinton, with the exception of African-American voters here in Philadelphia, where Senator Obama is winning with decent numbers. But he's not racking up the margin he needed.
One more interesting footnote, Wolf, before we move on: at the moment, and again the results are early, I told you earlier the keys for Obama were down here. He had to win not only center city, Philadelphia, but these four suburban counties. We're still waiting for two of these counties to come in. Let's look at Bucks County. About five percent of the state's population. It has Senator Clinton winning right now. If that holds up, that will be one of the reasons Senator Clinton is winning Pennsylvania tonight, and a disappointment for the Obama campaign.
BLITZER: We'll watch this right now and especially watch, John, the margin of her win. If it's two percent, six percent, 10 percent, that potentially could make a difference in influencing those all important super delegates, who will decide. Remember, CNNPolitics.com, you can do the same thing we just did. CNNPolitics.com. Watch the numbers come in county by county. We'll take a quick break. Much more of our coverage here at the CNN election center right after this.
We're also standing by for speeches from Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama from their respective rallies. We'll show you those speeches. You'll see it all right here on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: It's been almost two hours since the polls closed in Pennsylvania. We've projected that Hillary Clinton is the winner right now and we're waiting momentarily to hear from the winner of the Pennsylvania primary. That would be Senator Hillary Clinton. There is her rally right now in Philadelphia. This is a live picture. You see her very enthusiastic supporters getting ready to welcome Senator Clinton. You can bet there will be a lot of excitement when she walks into that room.
If you take a look at this other picture, that's the Barack Obama rally underway right now in Evansville, Indiana. Indiana votes in two weeks together with North Carolina. A much more subdued crowd there in Indiana right now, getting ready to hear from Barack Obama. Both of these candidates will be speaking. Once they do, we'll be sharing their remarks with you. We'll be listening very carefully to see what they have to say as they move forward.
Right now, the key for the Hillary Clinton win in Pennsylvania will be the margin of victory. Will she have won by one percent, by five percent, by 10 percent? A win is a win is a win, as they say. But you know what? A lot of super delegates are going to be watching to see how decisive her win in Pennsylvania is. Right now, with almost half of the precincts reporting, Hillary Clinton has an eight-point advantage over Barack Obama, 54 percent to 46 percent. If you take a look at the actual numbers, and we'll show those to you right now, 524,000 or so for Hillary Clinton, 443,000 for Barack Obama. This with almost half of the vote now in.
If you take a look at the state of Pennsylvania, these counties in Pennsylvania, the light blue counties are counties where Hillary Clinton is ahead. The dark blue, as you can see around Philadelphia over there, near Harrisburg, those are counties where Barack Obama is ahead right now.
She is doing clearly much better in most of the state. As I said, it will be significant to see what her margin of victory is, because she's going to have to do some major fund raising right now, looking ahead to North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, as well as beyond that as well.
Let's go back to Campbell Brown. She's got some good analysis with our team -- Campbell.
BROWN: I do, Wolf. As Wolf was saying, we're all waiting to see what the margin of victory is. Regardless, I think David made the point earlier a win is a win. And she's moving ahead. Kind of preview for us Indiana and North Carolina.
