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U.S. Midterm Election Results Live: Democrats Win House But Republicans Hold Senate; Six U.S. Senate Seats Remain Up for Grabs. Aired 2-3a ET
Aired November 07, 2018 - 02:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[02:00:00]
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CHRIS CUOMO, CNN HOST: You have the Republicans extending their lead in the Senate.
How much on either side?
We don't know. I'll take you through one at a time.
On the House side, we put out the numbers, 209-195. You see that. The most important number is one at the bottom of the screen, 31 seats remain. That's mostly out West, some races too close to call.
What will that ultimately mean?
You could see the Democrats up another 15-16 seats. What do you want to call a wave? What do you want to call a red wall on the Senate side?
A lot of that is just semantics and political spin. The reality is the picture of this country and its electorate is pretty clear. We have divergent groups and they are moving farther apart. That's pretty much the headline, not to be cynical. It is just the reality.
On the Senate side we're watching some seats that have been tricky. In Montana, a beautiful explanation of what is going on in the country right now, Jon Tester. He's a Democrat but he's one of them. That's the pitch he's been making.
But you had the president go there and thump on him and it seems to be paying off, very close.
If you look, you have 43 Democrat seats and 51 Republican.
What is the big takeaway from this with six seats remaining?
The Republicans aren't going to have to worry about confirmation battles anymore. They won't worry about the moderates of a Collins and a Murkowski anymore. They're going to have the numbers.
But right now we really do want to keep our sharp focus on two things. One thing we know for sure and one we're waiting to see.
What we know for sure, wow, did women make a big difference for Democrats tonight. Literally, when we look at the seats they have picked up so far, all of them are women that made the difference.
Now their ages, their dispositions and their types of politics, these are going to be questions going forward for the Democratic Party to see what they're about and who their leadership will be. That's what we know for sure.
What we don't know is what will happen in the Senate races. Dana has been tracking those for us. We'll talk about all of them. But we're keeping an eye on Nevada. We're starting to get results that are intriguing.
DANA BASH, CNN SR. U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. And one of the reasons that Nevada is so interesting and has been is this is the only competitive Senate seat where Hillary Clinton won. Talking about a Republican in Trump turf.
This is Hillary Clinton turf. Dean Heller, the incumbent Republican, is up 51.8 percent. Jacky Rosen, the Democratic challenger, is trailing at this point 43.5 percent. But we only have a quarter of the vote in, a little less. So we're certainly going to keep watch.
Montana, this is a Democratic incumbent seat but Matt Rosendale, the Republican challenger, is ahead by more than 1 percentage point. Jon Tester, the incumbent Democrat, is trailing. We will continue to watch that as the numbers are so incredibly close, about 2,000 votes separating them.
Arizona, this is an open Republican Senate seat. Martha McSally is trying to keep this in GOP hands. She's ahead just barely, just a little more than 1 percent. But she is ahead against Kirsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate in Arizona.
Now let's look at Florida. It is incredibly close. The votes are almost all in. Rick Scott is ahead. We're waiting to see a little bit more because Florida we've had -- we've had some issues in Florida with these races being so incredibly close. We're waiting to see what happens there.
Also want to go up north to Maine. Maine is an interesting state; you mentioned this earlier, Chris. Angus King is the incumbent. He is an independent. He caucuses with the Democrats. He's well ahead. But we're waiting to see how the rest of the votes come in tonight because we have about a quarter of the votes in -- in the state of Maine.
CUOMO: That one can get complicated. If they don't meet their threshold amount then you have this whole cutting off the last one. Then you have an automatic recount, a retabulation. So that could be a protracted process.
Let's talk about Arizona and Nevada, in a little broader context. We talked about this in the break. The president has been shy in those two areas. A little context on why, though. Nevada, part of the story there, is change in the complexion of the state. Change in the political disposition of the state.
Before '92 it would go red in presidential elections. Since then, in about six -- five of the last seven cycles, Democrats have won.
However, the emerging entity there, Kaitlan, Latino voters, 18 percent. That's a big chunk in that part of the country. They went big for Obama, not for Clinton. She didn't win as many. But it was still enough of a threat profile for them to make certain decisions on the Republican.
What do we know?
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the president's big campaign, the last two weeks, that's also the two weeks that the president was pushing that hardline anti-immigration message.
We were told by GOP sources that they did not want Trump to come to Nevada or Arizona these last two weeks. That's why we saw him repeating states during that blitz, going to Ohio multiple times and Florida and Missouri.
They didn't want him to come out because they didn't think he would --
[02:05:00]
COLLINS: -- be helpful. Now if we come to the end of tonight and this didn't go their way, you have to wonder if that was the right decision. But the White House pushed back on that because they said the president's son, Donald Trump Jr. was out there in these last few weeks.
But having Donald Trump Jr. there and having President Trump there, with this message about the caravan that is his constant message during any of his campaign speeches, is a very different message to voters. You have to look at and see. And President Trump may feel that he didn't make the right decision by not going out there.
CUOMO: One thing we know for sure is the president won't come out and it's on him. That's what he's not going to say. We're not going to hear that if they lose Nevada.
One of the interesting things, let's go to John King, is that it matters. Obama won 70 percent, 70 percent of the Latino vote; Hillary won 60 percent, that's a nice chunk of it but not what he got. And it creates a potential opportunity for Democrats.
When I look at these numbers, I say, where is the optimism?
You see it a little differently.
JOHN KING, CNN HOST: You look at this map right now and actually this could be the one bright spot for the Democrats tonight when it comes to the United States Senate. They haven't flipped any Republican seats yet. You look at the map, you're saying, well, Dean Heller's ahead, 23 percent in.
What are you talking about?
Well, I'm talking about this. This is Washoe County, the western part of the state. Jacky Rosen winning 51 percent. It is 100 percent in. Let's go back in time.
Dean Heller in 2012 wins it with 50 percent. But let's come out here to the full state. Just barely wins, just barely wins because Clark County, this is your Latino vote, this is Vegas, this is the suburbs. This is your Democratic base. Dean Heller loses by 9 points in Clark County in 2012 but has a narrow victory because he wins everywhere else.
So let's go back to where we are. Jacky Rosen, number one, winning Washoe. I saw Dean Heller, I was in Nevada last week. He said he thought he would win but he acknowledged he had a problem here.
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CUOMO: Why?
KING: Moving some resources in -- just resources for turnout. They were looking at the polling and doing their vote of the last week of the campaign. Are we going to get to this number? You know if you're short. You know if you got it.
CUOMO: Who lives there?
KING: They're moving resources in. It's -- well, you have Reno down here, number one. And then you have some suburbs around Reno and this gets very rural out here. This is Republican territory out here.
But Democrats think they have an opportunity down here, a party called Reno Urban but for Nevada purposes you do have more suburban area. So what you have -- and you have growth and new voters.
So you have the Democrats leading in Washoe by 6 points, 100 percent in, 7 points 100 percent in.
Just down, you come down to Carson City and bring this out here, Heller is winning. But if you go back to his race six years ago, not by as much. Not by as much. In the red Republican areas, he's got to run it up. You got to run it up huge.
You see all this?
That's how he just barely won because he runs it up here to overcome this. Come back to where we are tonight, we don't have anything from Clark County yet. So Jacky Rosen is winning Washoe with a decent margin.
Dean Heller now has to defy the laws of mathematics, gravity and political trends in Nevada and somehow, compete. You can't lose Clark County by 10 points like he did six years ago.
Can he get closer than that this year? We'll have to wait until Clark County comes in. But if you look at
this map, it's not over; we're still counting. But any Republican in Nevada in the west will tell you if that is blue, it is a very bad sign for Dean Heller.
CUOMO: One thing we know, went over in the last block, but let's refresh everybody, is Montana. This is a big metaphor fight in this. President Trump went after Jon Tester. Doesn't like Jon Tester.
Jon Tester is popular there. He says, the president may not like me but I'm one of you. Very tight race.
What do we see now?
KING: The president looking at the Senate map tonight. He loves this. He loves this. He's dancing over this if it holds. Remember, Jon Tester was the senator, the Democratic senator who called Dr. Ronny Jackson, the White House doctor, "candy man."
Dr. Jackson is still under investigation. Republicans were not ready to confirm Dr. Jackson but the president, because Tester was out in the lead, takes it personally. So he's been out here four times, I think.
Correct me if it is more than that. His son has been out there. This is a big deal. Tester led early on; you capsulized (sic) this race perfectly earlier.
Tester says, I'm a Democrat, I'm not one of those national Democrats. I'm one of you. That's his race. That's how he survived out there and he's been pretty damn good at it, actually. He tried to say this is a Maryland real estate developer. But this is a Republican state, this is a state the president won by 20-plus points.
You look at results now, Matt Rosendale ahead, 3,300 votes, 71 percent. So you're looking at the map and you're saying, OK.
What can we find.
Let's just go looking through the big Democratic areas, by Montana standards, 100 percent in.
You come back out here. You're looking at the map. Come up, here, 61 percent. So if you're Tester, you think, OK, I'm winning here by 10 points.
Here's an opportunity. Let's see; we got some more votes to count. Then you start looking at these small areas. This is a big -- if you go back to the last race, which was a pretty close race for Jon Tester, this is Montana.
[02:10:00]
KING: He won this big.
So if you're Jon Tester, you look at the map and you say, OK, I got a chance down here.
But if you're Matt Rosendale and the Republicans, you look at this corner of the state, go back six years, the Republican wins it big. Now you're sitting in the headquarters and you're calling all of your county people and -- you check your list, double-check your list.
What is outstanding?
What is the problem?
Another thing you're saying is, why do we have 61 percent here and 100 percent there and nothing here?
This -- in a close race, you're from a political family, you know what this is like at this point.
You're calling, who is my field guy here?
Where the hell is he?
I can't find him.
And you're calling these places now trying to figure it out because can Jon Tester overcome that?
Yes. But you just want to look -- you talk about America changing. Look at the neighborhood. This is a very hard state for a Democrat. So the Democrat takes an early lead. The Republican pulls ahead. The gravity tells you, Rosendale is happier. Tester says I'm a survivor. You're making all these phone calls.
Let's watch; you got 30 percent of the vote, 28 percent of the vote still to count in another very close race tonight.
CUOMO: But it just shows, a guy that maybe manned up wouldn't have a chance against Tester because of the reality of our politics right now. There's a divergent reality. And if you're with Trump, you're going against anybody else, whether you've known him your whole life or not.
Let's talk about Arizona. There's going to be history made here. You've got two female candidates. This is part of our new reality in electorates and that's something to be happy about, to see women participating. You have someone that makes an LGBT first in the state. You're going to have the first woman as a senator.
How does this race break down, 63 percent in?
KING: And two House members at the same time. Often House members run statewide the first time they crash. But one -- the Republican or Democratic House member is going to be the next senator for Arizona. Again, this has been stuck here for a long time. So it just happens. Some states count faster, slower.
The margin's been 16,000 overall.
So what do you look at here?
This is your biggest basket of votes right here. It's 87 percent in. If you're Kirsten Sinema, you think that's not good enough. That's not good enough. You're winning in the largest county. This is 60 percent of the state, 60 percent of the state. If you're a Democrat, Phoenix, Scottsdale, the suburbs here, you start moving up, this is the best test, right. The Democrats win most urban areas.
It's the West. It's a little more Republican. But Democrats win here and as you get struggling away, start driving out, start seeing the Walmarts and the Sam's Clubs, can Democrats still pull in the votes?
That's too close. It doesn't mean she can't pull it out. But that's too close. You come down here to Tucson, another -- this is more what she needs to do. But she's done, 100 percent of the vote is in.
So you look at the margin, you think, OK, Democrat's doing all right. But there's nothing else to get. You come up here, more rural area of the state, liberal area of the state, you see here, but it is in.
Now you click through and just look at Republican areas. Most of this vote is counted. We're looking at votes in Maricopa County. Just want to check over here to make sure I'm right about that.
Yes. So we're right here. I didn't check Yuma, so let me go over here and take a peek, 98 percent. So there's a little more here. Pretty small; 3 percent of the state population but a little bit more here.
So Martha McSally said, OK, a couple of votes there. But this is what we're waiting on. This is why our guys are out there at the decision desk, are calling in to Maricopa County saying, what have you got?
Where is it?
When are we going to get it?
CUOMO: When I follow you, it makes sense. And then I feel that my head is about to explode because of how much data you can put out there quickly.
Do you think it is going to stay this way?
What's your guess at this point?
KING: Let's come out to the full statewide, so I'm not misleading people at home, so they can see it. It's stayed consistently here but we're missing 40 percent of the vote.
CUOMO: And that's a lot.
KING: And so you look at it --
(CROSSTALK)
CUOMO: And she's tapped out, McSally, in a lot of places. KING: In most places so there's no question. Let's go back in time,
these are both first-time candidates statewide.
This is Jeff Flake's seat, six years ago in a pretty close race -- come out to the full race. A pretty close race; Jeff Flake carried Maricopa County, third county there. So you've got 15 percent, Jeff Flake cracks 50. Martha McSally is at 49.
So you look at the map and you say where?
If you're in the state or our guys out at the decision desk, you say this is a big county.
So are the votes missing?
Are they here?
The Senate campaign is saying, OK. They're here. You get a little more nervous but she does well down here as well. You got to remember, her House district is in here as well. So this is complicated but the votes are all in one place.
The question is where and as we always say, when we get to this time of the night, whichever county is in America, when.
CUOMO: It is complicated stuff. The numbers are all over. But you have a way of making --
(CROSSTALK)
KING: I'm just waiting to see if Clark County --
CUOMO: It's only 25 percent. So we'll keep an eye on this. We've got John King, you literally can't do any better. You can study for weeks and you pale in comparison to the man I'm sitting next to.
Let's take a break. Democrats take the House. We know that. It is a big deal.
How big of a wave?
We're still waiting to see the results --
[02:15:00]
CUOMO: -- in six Senate races that we're watching.
How big of an advantage, is the president's party going to hold there?
What will that mean?
There's a lot to be decided and we're going to do it if you stay with us tonight.
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DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: And we've got a key race alert to tell you about. It is in Nevada. We want to get to CNN's Phil Mattingly, who's at the magic wall to update us.
We understand the Democrat has pulled ahead.
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's exactly right. And the reason why was outlined a short while ago by John King. The biggest county in the state has come in. That's why Jacky Rosen right now up 50.8 percent to 45 percent and 47,000 votes. You want to know why. John was talking about the importance of a Democratic lead here in Washoe County. That's continuing to hold. That's 100 percent in.
Here's where Democrats have their firewall regardless of what year it is, regardless of what midterm or presidential it is, it's right here. This is Clark County. This is 72 percent of the vote. This is the Democratic stronghold. This is where the Democrats always run up the vote.
Take a look at what Jacky Rosen is doing, now 100 percent reporting, up by about 13 points, just shy of 13 points. Up by 60,000-70,000 votes here. Here's what it means.
Dean Heller, the incumbent Republican senator, is in big trouble. John laid it out perfectly before. If Dean Heller is not running up the vote or winning the vote in Washoe County where Dean Heller is from and where he won in 2012 to eke out his Senate election, he's in big trouble.
[02:20:00]
MATTINGLY: That's obviously still holding, 51 percent to 44.5 percent, 100 percent in. That's a done deal. If Republicans aren't winning there, they have a problem when they're getting blown out here, which is exactly what Jacky Rosen is doing. Still some time to come in, still some Republican counties to come in.
But those are the two counties. And those two counties are looking very good for Democrats.
LEMON: Phil, thank you very much.
Let's get to Scott McLean now at Jacky Rosen headquarters in Nevada. They are standing by and watching CNN.
What is happening there?
Give us the mood.
SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What I can tell you here, Dean Heller spent his weekend in Washoe County, which includes Reno. They thought that was the linchpin of the Republican victory in the Senate race. Right now things aren't looking good for Republicans. There's some very encouraging signs here for Jacky Rosen.
Democrats will tell you that they knew they had to run up the score in Clark County. It seems like they're doing that. If you're hearing the energy in this room, they knew that they had to turn out. (INAUDIBLE) voters as well.
And, Don, I can also tell you that, according to a Democratic insider (INAUDIBLE), Jacky Rosen's campaign strategy, some of the talk, the president talked about birthright citizenship seeming to strike a nerve.
(INAUDIBLE) the battle with female voters (INAUDIBLE) their polling, they believe that that drew a lot of voters, Dean Heller voters, to the Jacky Rosen camp. Things are still obviously not over. But things are looking very good for Democrats at this point here in Nevada.
LEMON: Scott, I heard how interesting this would be for Democrats at this point. That's all I heard from the last about minute that you said because they're so excited there. But, Scott, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Let's take it over to the panel. Go ahead, Maeve. This is going to be huge, right?
MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: This is such a fascinating state to watch, particularly for how things should go in 2020. What he was talking about there in terms of the turnout among Latino voters and how much that could have helped Jacky Rosen and how unhelpful Trump's rhetoric was on birthright citizenship and the caravan and sending troops to the border.
These are areas where potentially you're doing permanent damage to the Republican Party. And Nevada is such a dynamic state. Potentially, also tonight in Nevada, we will see that becoming the first state to have a majority of women in a state house.
So this is clearly a place where Democrats have worked hard, particularly the culinary union, for example, turning out those voters in Clark County and could have long-term ramifications --
LEMON: I'm glad you said that because, Mark, I know that you have been raring to talk about what all of this means for the Republican Party.
Wins tonight in the Senate and big wins. You got to give them that.
But long-term, what does this mean?
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: A couple of things. You can't say there's a clear-cut winner, clear-cut loser. House Democrats winners, Senate Republicans winners. Donald Trump, I would argue, loser. The loser being that House Democrats now will have subpoena power and they will cause incredible headaches for him.
But when you talk about the party structure as we move forward -- and you look at the exit poll results, just so all our viewers know, when we're talking about exit results, these are live interviews, that are people walking out of the polling place, where they're just asked specific questions and they answer them freely.
This is really good data. This has got to be troubling right now if you are a Republican. Democrats hold a 35-point lead with voters between 18 to 29. Democrats have a 19-point lead with voters between the ages of 30 and 44. Among women, they have a 20-point lead or 19- point lead at this point among women.
These are just Democrats. And if you look at minorities right now, nine out of 10 blacks are voting Democrat. Nearly seven in 10 Hispanics vote Democrat. If you look long-term, 20 years down the road, the Republican Party is in a lot of trouble because I do not think -- I do not think that the generation now is going to be the generation of their parents.
LEMON: If you look at Arizona and the neighboring state, which is typically red, it is really close. Typically red.
Are you looking at a similar scenario there?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't think so.
(CROSSTALK)
LEMON: Stand by; I got to get to Dana Bash, who's got a projection in the Senate.
Go ahead, Dana.
BASH: Don, we have a projection in the state of Nevada, that's Jacky Rosen, the Democratic challenger, will now be the senator from Nevada. This is the only pickup that Democrats have had and have gotten for the entire night in the United States Senate.
So what does this mean when we look at the balance of power?
We have 44 Democrats, 51 Republicans. Two Republican --
[02:25:00]
BASH: -- pickups there. And five seats are still outstanding this evening -- Don.
LEMON: Very much. Let's get back now to Jacky Rosen headquarters. I'm sure they're very excited when they hear this. Scott McLean is there.
Scott, are they even aware of this at this point?
MCLEAN: Hey, Don, they're actually not quite aware of it. But they're about --
(CROSSTALK)
LEMON: Here you go.
MCLEAN: -- about to hear this room go absolutely wild. (INAUDIBLE).
(APPLAUSE)
MCLEAN: I can tell you this is -- (INAUDIBLE) -- they're telling us that, look, they worked very hard to get out their base. (INAUDIBLE) registration (INAUDIBLE) from the get-go. And they needed to really turn out because we know that Democratic voting drops off big-time in the midterms, especially in Nevada.
And if you look out in the crowd, you'll see a lot of red T-shirts. Those red T-shirts belong to members of the culinary union here, Local 226. It is a massive political force in the state of Nevada, 57,000 members strong.
It was a political machine in this election. Jacky Rosen told me it could very well play a big role in ensuring a Democratic victory. And it very well may have done that here tonight.
LEMON: All right, thank you very much. The good old delay, everyone.
I got to go. Election Night in America proving to be really unpredictable. We'll continue to talk about that right after this break.
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[02:30:11] CUOMO: All right. Welcome back to our continuing election night coverage. Things are happening. We just made a projection in the Nevada senate race. It looks the Democrat is going to take it here. We'll stay tuned on that. The House about two dozen races out, so let's check in with Phil Mattingly. Let's start in the southeast and we'll work our way west as it work --
(CROSSTALK)
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: (INAUDIBLE) top line first because keep in mind, the House maybe called. But right now, it's all about margin --
(CROSSTALK)
MATTINGLY: Whoever the speaker is, if it's Nancy Pelosi or somebody else have to work with. Right now, Democrats are leading in 36 Republican districts gave them 227 but the votes still outstanding. Here's one surprise and I think everybody needs to pay attention to this. It's just coming online right now and that is down in South Carolina's first district. Joe Cunningham, the Democrat, 4007 votes ahead over Katie Arrington, 99 percent reporting he's right on the verge right now.
That would be an upset. This race came online late talking to Republicans over the last couple of weeks. They had concern about it. But the background here is important. Katie Arrington primary Mark Sanford, the incumbent republican in that district former governor of the state, Katie Arrington beat Mark Sanford. Katie Arrington in her victory speech when she won the primary talked about how this was Trump's party now. This was Donald Trump's party.
She was a Trump supporter. Right now, she is on a verge of defeat based on what we're looking at right now. Why that's important for a couple of different reasons? But the primary one right now is this was a seat Democrats did not expect to happen to win column. So everyone you add that's a surprise especially here in California still coming in. There's a number of pickups here they could possible get. This is a plus one Democrats didn't expect to have.
That's one more sit whoever the speaker is going to be if that's Nancy Pelosi is going to have. That's a big deal.
CUOMO: So we have this as projected win for the Democrats. We'll talk about the dynamic later on as we start to go there. Georgia Sixth is something that's worth looking at right now. What do we see there?
MATTINGLY: Yes. And I think it's worth also remembering if you're talking about Georgia, everybody remembers Georgia Sixth. There's a special election in Georgia Sixth. There's tens of millions of dollars that was spent in that race. Democrats had a lot of high hopes and Democrats fell short. Jon Ossoff the candidate -- here's another one that came online late. Karen Handel was the incumbent. She won that special election. Take a look in --
(CROSSTALK)
MATTINGLY: 50/50, Karen Handel only up by 57 votes, a hundred percent reporting. Lucy McBath was considered a top tier Democratic candidate, somebody that had a lot of recognition inside the party, raised a ton of money, had a great backstory. This became extremely close. I'll tell you talking to Republicans and Democrats. They saw this moving in this direction late in the -- in the race. It's happening right now. The big question is, 57 votes ahead? Where is this going from here at this --
(CROSSTALK)
CUOMO: Yes. Now, a quick thing for people watching at home. They see a hundred percent reporting, well, that's it and this is how it ends, no. Why? How does it work in terms of really putting a fine point on the race and how the ballot country will go over the next 18 to 24 hours?
MATTINGLY: Yes. It's going to be a big question. I think it's one right now that we leave to the (INAUDIBLE) to our decision desk. They're the experts. They're the ones who were going to decide when they're comfortable to call it and I can tell you with 57 votes ahead, people are going to -- that's right. This is (INAUDIBLE) people are still -- as long as this is in call, it's still outstanding right now. This is as close as it gets and it's also worth noting. This is Atlanta suburbs. This is the types of places that we've been talking about that were right for Democratic pickups throughout the night and this is exactly why this came online. CUOMO: Now, in Georgia, we've been hearing that on the governor's
side, you know, some of these races that are really close may not be counted tonight because of just the arithmetic just the ballot findings. Some of it is going to be protractedly both contest and certainly that's the way that governor's race seems to be handled. We'll see which way this is headed. Now, let's go to Illinois. All right. Let's go to Illinois, which district do we want?
The 13th district. All right. Now, this is a good one for you and it's less than and why we take our time here. Originally, we thought that the Democrat was going to take this, Betsy Londrigan, but I don't think so. We think Rodney Davis is going to pull out this race and that's what our projection right now here at CNN that the Republican is going to take this race. How did we see it going initially and how do we get to this point?
MATTINGLY: Well, there was a projection made earlier that Betsy Londrigan who was considered a top tier Democratic candidate was going to defeat Rodney Davis. We have now obviously pulled away from that. These are the reality of the numbers you're seeing right now. Rodney Davis, 99 percent reporting, 7000 votes ahead right now. He's clearly in comfortable position right here. This was another one of those races that Democrats thought maybe they could actually pull into play late into the race.
But this is also a different part of this thing. We've been talking a lot about Chicago suburbs. We've seen two Republicans incumbent Republicans on their way down or already down in those -- that type of area. Southern Illinois is a different -- is a different matter. It's a more Republican area. Rodney Davis when he talked to Republicans and he ran a big campaign. He understood early there was going to be a threat. He raised his money and he's considered well- liked in the district.
He is going to -- at least to this stage in time (INAUDIBLE) even though earlier in the night that there's a possibility Betsy Londrigan win.
CUOMO: Very interesting. And again, if you're a Democrat, this is the future of your part. Women came out today and so many of your races, they won, they lose. But they were your players on the field like we've never seen before. Another interesting point, look at all these paper I have in me. This is everything that he has in his head. That's the level of sophistication. That's why I love being on this team.
[02:35:02] MATTINGLY: All right. Let's go to the Utah Fourth race. I'm checking on that right now. Interesting party. This is about the Trump effect once again as well. We see the Democrat ahead here, Mia Love, she was there. She had gone in with Trump now. That's becoming part of the political calculus. She's in the tough race.
MATTINGLY: Mia Love was a Republican who is trying to walk a very careful line. Utah obviously was not a huge fan of President Trump. If you go back to 2016, her district, she actually run far above. Take a look at where she was back in 2016. She ran, won by 12 points. Take a look at what the president did in this congressional district, barely won. Remember, there was a -- there was an independent candidate who was running as well. Only won by seven points compared to where she was.
Now, let's go back to 2018 and where is right now. Let me explain two things here. First and foremost, yes, there's a Trump effect in Utah. Even though Mia Love tried to distanced herself particularly on immigration issues when he made comments about Haiti where is -- where her parents are immigrants from. But this is also important, candidate selection. He talked all throughout the night about Democrats going out getting candidates that could win in districts that maybe traditionally they would not. Now, this district is toggled back and forth over the course of the
last 10 years, but this was considered to be reliably Republican to some degree. Ben McAdams has won Salt Lake County in salt -- in county office before. That is a tough tier candidate who has already won county wide, 97 percent reporting, 5000 votes ahead. Ben McAdams looks right on the verge as well and that's as much about the candidate in this race as it is about any other outside --
(CROSSTALK)
CUOMO: All right. Good Segway for that to go to California and let's go to Dana Rohrabacher who is a very controversial Republican. He is seen as soft on Russia. It's been controversial over years how he would play with Trump. Now, he's in a very tough race here. How do you see it?
MATTINGLY: He's in a race of his life and I think everybody knew that coming in. Harley Rouda raised a ton of money, millions of dollars coming in. Obviously, there's a lot of interest in this race. Dana Rohrabacher known for his relations with Russia. Russia obviously became a very big issue over the course of the last couple of years. Here's where we stand. Seventy percent reporting, race is in margin, 820 votes ahead for Harley Rouda.
The interesting part about district and really several in this Orange County area here is there were a lot of pickup opportunities. There were four clear pickup opportunities and a part of the state that used to be the bastion of Republican politics. Mitt Romney cleaned up in Orange County. His Republican incumbent, Dana Rohrabacher three decades in the House. There's a reason they always win here. This fits the narrative.
This fits the map of districts that have started to move heavily away for President Trump over the course of the last two years and there's a possibility that Dana Rohrabacher becomes a causality of that. However, keep in mind, 820 votes ahead still very --
(CROSSTALK)
MATTINGLY: And only 70 percent reporting. We're still seeing kind of the fluidity of the races still reporting out California.
CUOMO: All right. We have the California 39, why is this race important because we could have it first here (INAUDIBLE) the first Korean woman to sit in Congress and that would -- that would be interesting if she wins. We're not projecting the race but right now, is how is it going?
MATTINGLY: So this is Ed Royce's former district and Young Kim was actually a former staffer for Ed Royce when he was in Congress, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and right now 73 percent reporting. Young Kim has opened up a pretty decent lead, 8000 votes ahead and this is an interesting case because we talked a lot about what Democrats have done on the candidate side. This is a Republican candidate that if you talk to anybody in the party they say she is a superstar.
Why is she a superstar? Why did she raise a ton of money? It's also because of what she means for the district. This district is 33 percent Asian. This district is not -- we talked about demographics and Latino vote and this is 33 percent Asian. Young Kim, the opportunity become the first Korean House member from this area. That's important. Candidates were important here. She has a lead right now. Democrats felt good about Gil Cisneros.
He raised a ton of money and donated a bunch of money from himself, the former lottery winner. But as you're seeing right now, 73 percent reporting. Young Kim opening up the lead. That's as much about the candidate as it is anything else.
CUOMO: And the diversification of the country --
(CROSSTALK)
CUOMO: -- by gender, by ethnicity, by party, you know, you're just seeing things change right before your eyes. Now, on a governor side, we want to check in Wisconsin. This has been a close race all night long. Scott Walker made choices where the president is involved and the president's impact on these races can't be avoided and if you follow the narrative, you've seen recently when the House started to become in doubt, the president pulled away said he's focusing on the Senate.
Tonight, the Senate has been -- the certain story for the Republicans, they made a lead there that's going to help them in difficult ways going forward but the president's all in on the Senate. He's been putting out tweets about how its record setting what they've done. Now, that's a very qualified climate. It's not even worth getting into right now. But remember this, starting tomorrow, there's going to be a big discussion within the Republican Party about whether the president helped or hurt and where what Phil was just telling of us about what happened in Utah especially in Provo.
There, all the immigration talked hurt and places like Nevada where you have a big Latino population about 18 percent of the vote turnout there, it's going to be a big problem what he was doing for candidates. So it's going to be a big part of the narrative. Now, in this governor's race, playing out a little differently but the Democrats do have good caused for hope here, 99 percent in.
MATTINGLY: Well, I think they have great caused for hope. When you find an extra 25,000 to 30,000 votes in Milwaukee County that comes in late, you saw Tony Evers is only up by about a thousand votes for a long period of time. Scott Walker was bouncing back and forth as well with a possibility of actually winning. Right now, Tony Evers up by 3100 votes. For the -- so the question, 99 percent report, Chris, where does Scott Walker find the vote?
[02:40:10] Where does Scott Walker find the vote? All right. Let's go toggle this down a little bit. Ninety percent outstanding right now. Maybe move it up a little bit to see if we can even get a little bit more here. OK. You see some red counties here. That's got to be good news for Scott Walker, right? Except start going into this counties. How much votes is there? OK. Six thousand, seven thousand total votes. That's not going to help him much when he needs 30,000.
Can he cobble together 30,000 votes? Plus, no, not in this county. Again, we're talking about smaller counties. The big counties for Scott Walker for the most part have already come in. Again, you got a sizeable lead here, 61 percent to 36 percent. But when it's the 21st biggest county in the state, you got 95 percent reporting. You're not finding 30,000 votes here as well. You also have two Democratic counties outstanding right now. This is one of the bigger counties.
At least compared to some of the other ones out there. Tony Evers has a 17-point lead, 16-point lead here. So he's going to have vote coming in as well. What does 30,000 vote margin is? As you scroll around and see, can Scott Walker find a place to win even though he's winning candidly in these counties that are outstanding? The short answer is he's in trouble right now. Is the race over? No. Clearly, it's not because we haven't called the race. But 30,000 vote margin given what's outstanding right now. Scott Walker has got problems. There's no question about it.
CUOMO: What triggers a recount?
MATTINGLY: What triggers a recount? That's actually a great question --
(CROSSTALK)
CUOMO: (INAUDIBLE) so let's check it out. Let's take a break and figure it out because that's another thing. You look at Georgia, the governor's race there, race is across the country. If they're too close to call sometimes it's going to result an automatic recount. Sometimes we're going to go to court and they're going to fight for a recount. So we'll take you through that as we get the developments. Right now, let's take a quick break. We're following all the cliffhanger races.
The story is far from over. Votes are coming in. We have four and forty Senate contest that we're tracking. Let's take a quick breather. Please stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) [02:45:24] SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VERMONT: Our job is to tell this president that we will not tolerate policies which are racist, and sexist, and homophobic.
SEN. SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO: We do not lie, we do not engage in hate speech, and we do not rip children from their families at the border.
REP. JENNIFER WEXTON (D), VIRGINIA: They demand a better nation.
AMERICAN CROWD: Yes!
WEXTON: A nation where we treat each other with dignity and with respect.
REP. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D), NEW YORK: In the absence of anyone giving a clear voice on the moral issues of our time. Then, it is up to us to voice back.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LEMON: Members of the Democratic resistance out on the campaign trail, giving speeches there. So, the question is considering what happened with the Senate? What happened with the House tonight? Should Democrats move further left? More progressive, or should they move towards the center? Which of -- which strategy works for them?
CHRIS CILLIZZA, CNN POLITICS EDITOR-AT-LARGE: I think you showed Sherrod Brown there, which I think is interesting. Senator from Ohio. State Donald Trump won by nine points. Sherrod Brown, we basically called that race, the second the polls closed.
In a real opponent, a member of Congressman Jim Renacci. He wins overwhelmingly. I continue to -- you want a dark horse in 2020? You want someone whose campaign people should look at and say, "That's populism, that's in the Midwest.
LEMON: When you say, Sherrod Brown?
CILLIZZA: Yes, I think so. He doesn't -- he doesn't --
(CROSSTALK)
LEMON: I think he basically said that himself. He said --
CILLIZZA: In his speech, he said we need to look to the Midwest and the lessons of 2018 will be learned in 2020. I -- he's an interesting character, very popular with labor. He doesn't give a lot of run nationally. But --
LEMON: Yes.
RESTON: But what did tonight tell us, right? About what Democrats want in 2020? That is the big question going forward. And what we saw was an outpouring of young voters, minority voters, Latino voters, who among the 2020 candidates can unify that coalition, bring together those millennials that did not turn out for Hillary Clinton, and minority voters.
There are people like Kamala Harris who are going to make that case, maybe Beto, potentially who could run after tonight certainly.
SANDERS: I think --
(CROSSTALK)
PRESTON: You know, and I do think it's interesting to note that we're going to look at a Democratic field that is going to be larger than what we saw in 2016 when we saw 17 Republicans run for the Republican -- OK. So, we're going to see this larger field.
We are going to see campaigning entirely different than what has been done in the past. And they are going to look at Beto O'Rourke for example, and say was not consultant driven.
They're going to look at Bernie Sanders back in 2015, 2016 slightly consult -- consultant-driven, but largely driven by himself. And that is what's going to change immensely in how these campaigns play out.
APRIL RYAN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: But Don, when we're looking at all of this, you're asking -- you know, what should Democrats do? I think people need to go back to the basics. Look at what the base wants. People who are now being elected are people who felt left out, felt like they were on the fringe.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Right.
RYAN: You've got women, you've got teachers, you've got minorities. They are coming and I'm not even going to say that they are the resistance. There are people who felt like our voices aren't heard. When it came to issues of health care, when it came to issues of just being a pre-existing condition, just by being a woman herself -- you know, having a C-section. That's a pre-existing condition.
I mean, so many of us on this panel probably are pre-exists, a walking pre-existing condition. I mean, there is so many issues that are out there that people want to tackle instead of all of this hodgepodge of hate, this cauldron of racism, and in anything that all the (INAUDIBLE).
LEMON: I don't - I don't see that changing, we'll sue. Let's ask a woman from the Midwest. Because -- about this, you take offensive that Democrats have lost the Midwest or the --
(CROSSTALK)
S. SANDERS: I take offensive the conversation about the Democrat just have forgotten the Midwest, and they can't -- they can't win Midwest voters as a black woman from Nebraska.
We are poised -- Democrats are poised to like the Democratic governor of Wisconsin, a lieutenant governor of Wisconsin. That was a millennial, a 31-year-old black man who's a former state Rep. Democrats have won the governorship in Michigan. I think what we're seeing -- the question is like do we move to the center, do be moved to the left. I don't think that's the question. The question is, what are the issues that bubbled up to the top? And the issues that bubble up to the top are education, our healthcare, are -- and economy that works for all. Or things that Democrats have been talking about but we hadn't until this election.
Really figured out how to poise and capitalize on it, and run on it. That is where the base is now. And I think that's what they'll be in 2020.
LEMON: Is it all about the candidate though, because Beto was a different candidate than Stacey Abrams, which is quite a different candidate than Gillum.
[02:49:52] KIRSTEN POWERS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. Yes, he's an incredible candidate. I mean, I used to hear sort of from number crunchers people it seems like most if not all the pickups were by moderate Democrats. Is that -- I mean, do you think that's a fair thing to say in the House?
PRESTON: I mean --
POWERS: I mean that you didn't see a lot of -- a lot of progressives flipping. They were winning in blue districts. But it seems like in terms of -- you know, turning red to blue that this were mostly moderate Democrats.
S. SANDERS: I don't think that's true because out of the 90 candidates who are in the red to blue program for the Democratic Congressional campaign committee, 72 percent of them, the progressive campaign committee deemed them progressive. So, you running on things like Medicare for all. They were running on things -- like -- So, I think we talk about progressive, I think there's levels of progressive.
Hereby, what went at on, abolished ICE. So, what is progressive? I think is the question --
(CROSSTALK)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And there's still a lot of basis.
CILLIZZA: Although, to that point in 2020, you already have Kirsten Gillibrand. You already have Cory Booker. You already have Elizabeth Warren. You have Bernie Sanders. I mean, you saw on the runoff to this election, you saw those candidates who we expect to run doing everything they can said to not let anyone gets left of them.
I think that I'm not sure what the lesson here is. But I will tell you, and they have mentioned this. If you are a -- if you are a Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and you look at the fact that women voted by 19 or 20 points for Democratic candidates, and in propel Democrats (INAUDIBLE) majority in the House.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Right.
CILLIZZA: If I'm Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders, and I know I just mentioned Sherrod Brown, but you know, I just think -- what the lesson we learn in this election? Democratic primaries and in the House, Democratic general election.
You know, women are powering the Democratic Party right now.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We did that.
(CROSSTALK)
S. SANDERS: We have been doing block, period.
LEMON: Republicans, are you concern about -- are you concern about if you look at this. If you look at -- where is it, by race, I think it was -- remember that thing? By race, that number of women who voted for Democrats. Correct me if I'm wrong -- it out --
(CROSSTALK)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Didn't you just nominate a woman in 2016?
LEMON: Yes, that's true.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All right, now.
(CROSSTALK)
S. SANDERS: That's a very specific woman. I don't think that having the hell --
(CROSSTALK)
LEMON: Come on, you're looking back.
RYAN: But you had a president that objectified women, and that's when we go back to women's issues. You have had people at the table to deal with issues without women at the table that deals with us. So yes, it is once again, the year of the woman. We have now moved forward, but yet we're coming back.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I know we got to celebrate Martha McSally's victory, and Marsha Blackburn (INAUDIBLE) celebrate young chemist victory as all part of the year of the woman.
(CROSSTALK)
LEMON: Yes. I think they're including. I think they're including that as well.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
LEMON: But hold on. Because if you are looking at now -- if you're looking at now. And when it comes to the Congress, so, 47 percent of men, right? 48 percent of men voted for Democrats, and then, 59 percent of men voted for -- of female -- of women voted for Democrats.
Are you -- you're not concerned about that? Because that's now. Hillary Clinton is 2016.
CHARLIE DENT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Yes.
LEMON: That's in the rear-view mirror. You've got the President Donald Trump and you have all of these women who are coming into the Congress now, and which could be record numbers. You know, that can start about that?
DENT: We got -- we've got -- we Republicans have problems have a problem with college-educated women, particularly in suburbs. That's a fact. We just have to deal with it. And I think, some of the president's rhetoric obviously is not helping us. And I'm looking at where Republicans lost tonight in suburban communities, and suburban Minneapolis, and suburban New Jersey, and suburban election in Philadelphia, we held that (INAUDIBLE).
But, in these suburban areas, we lost, I think largely because many women may have defected from the Republican candidate. So that is a very real problem.
Same talk, and I will tell you, I think, Democrat have a lot of problems with men.
LEMON: So, how do you fix that in? How do you fix? Let's do the woman problem first to Republicans. How do you fix that?
DENT: Well, I think tone matters a lot to women. And I think that would probably the best thing. I've -- look, I've been critical oppressor. I think his rhetoric is been very unhelpful. And that's not just on women, but -- you know, you know, this caravan talk and --
S. SANDERS: Yes.
DENT: And the -- and the birthright citizenship, you know, that, that might have played well in the ruby red states where we -- were we Republicans won tonight. But, at the inverse happened in Nevada. It's not helping Dean Heller. It certainly didn't help Carlos Curbelo, a very fine Cuban-American who lost tonight.
Superb individual, superb candidate but couldn't survive. And so what has heard us. We'll heard, should have won by a much bigger margin. That very heavily Hispanic district. He won. But I tell you that rhetoric is unhelpful. So we will do have problems -- we as a party have to figure out a way to grow.
This is a -- this is a game of addition, not subtraction. Inclusion and not exclusion. And I think, you know, when the president doubles down on the base as hard as his done, we're not growing.
RYAN: But his -- but his base was originally about the forgotten male, the forgotten white male. And whoever was along with the forgotten male was that woman. And maybe she was that -- she wasn't that college graduated woman, but she was that woman who came with that man, a working-class man who did not have a college degree.
So that's where your problem is. And now the president has regrets. Let's see how he broadens it. How he broadens it to those who are educated. How he broadens it to minorities as well?
[02:55:02] LEMON: If there's -- if there's anything that tells you that the nation is divided, all you have to do is look at the numbers, and look how close it has been for many of these races now. Many of them that we're still following. Right on the other side of this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Our welcome back to our continuing coverage, some big numbers for you, and you're looking at them right now. The Democrats are in control of the House 214, 197, 26 pickups. You'll remember the magic number started at 23. How big will the margin be a big part of the story? We don't know.
24 seats remain open and we are following them all in real-time. U.S. Senate, big story for the Republicans, seats picked up there two of them. 51, 44, five seats remain. We're tracking them as well.
Now, a lot of headlines are going to be a lot of takeaways, it's going to be a lot of spin. But there's like an immutable truth here that we have to discuss. And I'm sitting with the exact right panel to have it. Brava to the women. Boy did they carry the Democrats tonight?
All 17 of the races that we make sure I get it right. 17 races, pickups that we know of for sure, all women, right?
BASH: It's got, exactly. So far, 17 of the 26 pickups -- 26 pickups, total, 17 are women could end up being more than that. Because there is still -- Phil was talking about outstanding races where there are women on the ballot who could win. It's huge. I mean, it is absolutely huge.
