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Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab Has Resigned. Aired: 4-5a ET
Aired November 15, 2018 - 04:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MAX FOSTER, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: Thanks, for joining us. I'm Max Foster outside the UK Houses of Parliament. This is "CNN Newsroom." We begin in London with some breaking news for you. We've just heard that the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab has resigned. This comes right as Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing to present her draft Brexit deal to Parliament here and winning it over is by no means guaranteed.
That's despite getting approval from her Cabinet after a grueling five-hour meeting on Wednesday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
THERESA MAY, PRIME MINISTER OF GREAT BRITAIN: I know that there will be difficult days ahead. This is a decision which will come under tense scrutiny and that is entirely as it should be and entirely understandable, but the choice was this deal which enables us to take back control and to build a brighter future for our country or going back to square one with more division, more uncertainty and a failure to deliver on the referendum.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOSTER: European officials said they are analyzing the draft deal with EU's Chief Brexit negotiator calling it fair and balanced. It needs to be approved at an EU Council Summit, that's being organized we're told, after that there will be a vote here at the UK Parliament, then the European Parliament would have it say, whatever happens, Britain is set to leave the European Union by March of 29th next year. We're covering this story from all sides for you. Nina is here in Westminster, Erin is in Brussels. But first of all, Nina, us about the letter and the significance of it. It's not the first resignation today, either.
NINA DOS SANTOS, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: That's right. So four minutes ago, Dominic Raab who up until now has been the Brexit Secretary, he has resigned. This is extremely significant because that means that he is the first Cabinet Secretary to have resigned. We saw just an hour or so ago the Northern Ireland Minister resigning as well over the terms off this deal. But that wasn't a member of Cabinet. This is the first big gun to go.
And I'm going to read you a couple of reasons in the letter that's just posted on Twitter that outline why he feels he cannot support this deal. First of all he says, "I believe that the regulatory regime proposed to Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom," and second, again, I quote here from his letter, "I cannot support an indefinite back stop arrangement where the EU hold as veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the back stop amount to a hybrid of the EU customs union. No democratic union has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime."
So he's not mincing his words here. This is significant. Remember that Dominic Raab took over the job after David Davis, the previous pro-Brexit Brexit Secretary resigned a couple of months ago and that nearly precipitated a leadership contest, nearly toppled Theresa May.
FOSTER: And what people here were saying yesterday was there probably would be some resignations after the meeting, where she presented her plan to the Cabinet, but it really needed a big beast to go and he's unarguably a big beast of the British Cabinet.
DOS SANTOS: And a big beast of the pro-Brexit lobby as well. There were reportedly at least about 10 Cabinet members who voiced concerns to Theresa May's plan yesterday. Obviously, we know that she had five hours of grueling Cabinet discussions. She managed to push this through with collective agreement but not necessarily unanimous agreement. So obviously, somebody like Dominic Raab raising his head above the parapet could well mean that we may see other resignations coming over the next year because people could even feel as emboldened to write the 1922 committee that would precipitate a leadership contest based on the numbers, they need 48 signatories to write to that.
FOSTER: We understand a couple of letters or at least one has gone in just this morning. So what's the process there? Dominic Raab going would embolden people to send more letters presumably and that could trigger Theresa May's challenge.
DOS SANTOS: He could give them political cover to do so, let's say. Yes, so in terms of the Parliamentary math, if you look at the amount of seats at the Conservative Party currently have, it's about 315. What you need is 15% of sitting Tory MPs to write to this back bench committee, this 1922 committee to say that they have lost confidence in the leader and that the leader should be replaced, that there should be a vote of no confidence.
Based on 15% of 315, you get 48 members of Parliament. Now, in the past, what we've seen is fiercely Eurosceptic members of the European research group, a pro-Brexit lobby in the Conservative Party saying that they have as many as 80 members of Parliament who will be willing to vote against Theresa May's previous Chequers plan, then eventually, it transpired that those people hadn't actually written to topple her yet.
But now with Dominic Raab resigning and potentially other members of the Cabinet resigning, that well could be the start of the drum beating.
FOSTER: Confirmed that Dominic Raab, Brexit Secretary resigning this morning. Huge news in UK politics. But how is it being interpreted in Europe. Let's speak to Erin who is in Brussels. What do you think, Erin? [04:05:03]
ERIN MCLAUGHLIN, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: Well, Max, we were all wondering why we had yet to see Raab make the trip here to Brussels to announce this deal. Now, of course, we have the answer to that question with his resignation. We did hear from the Michel Barnier, the Chief Brexit negotiator for the EU and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk at the press point in Brussels this morning announcing that an extraordinary summit will take place for November 25th saying that the wheels in motion for that, although Tusk noting that this is a painful process.
Brexit is seen here in Brussels as a lose-lose situation for both the EU the UK, that it's all about damage control right now. He said that that summit will take place barring something extraordinary happening. EU leaders so far have been very tight lipped on what might happen should things go belly up for Theresa May at Westminster, but Tusk had this to say to the British people. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TUSK, PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN COUNCIL: Let me say this to our British friends. As much as I am sad to see you leave, I will do everything to make this farewell the least painful possible for both for you and us.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCLAUGHLIN: Looking this draft text of 585 pages of it, which have been distributed now to the capitols. It certainly makes you wonder given that statement, what the most painful option looks like given everything that is happening there in London, Max.
FOSTER: Obviously, Dominic Raab deeply involved in negotiations over there in Brussels, having someone replace him now, does that cause a lot of commotion and will it make people feel unsettled there or will they just deal with whoever comes along next?
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, it certainly leaves an open question, Max, considering Michelle Barnier this morning saying there's still a lot of work yet to be done. Yes, we have this 585-page outline of the withdrawal agreement, a legally binding text, but there's still more work to do in terms of that political declaration which is supposed to outline the future relationship between the UK and the EU. That has not been hammered out yet. Now, with this resignation of course, unclear who will take Dominic Raab's place and getting that work done.
FOSTER: Yes, Nina, so they have got to find a replacement for Dominic Raab. Actually whenever she tries to rejig her Cabinet is this effort to try to balance the remainers and the leavers, right? So, and that position really needs to be a leaver, would you argue?
DOS SANTOS: Presumably it does, yes, that's true. But then she may well have other Cabinet positions to fill by the end of the day, Esther McVey who is the pro-Brexit Work and Pension Secretary is being somebody wo apparently engaged in rather fraught discussions according to many reports throughout that five-hour Cabinet meeting, vociferously making her points clear that similar points to Dominic Raab apparently that a lot of pro-Brexit members of the Cabinet are concerned about this ongoing limbo that this transition and then a transition period upon a transition period followed by a back stop that appears to be in this text contained. And again, concerned about Northern Ireland perhaps, any regulatory diversions for Northern Ireland, but the DUP wouldn't support.
So essentially, the choice that some pro-Brexit members in Theresa May's Cabinet have here is back the Prime Minister and lose those key 10 DUP votes that keep the party in power or try and find somebody else and it may be that we see other resignations later on today for that reason.
FOSTER: It's interesting because I'm just looking at the twist that we have here, some of the big sort of political commentators here making the point that if the Brexit Secretary doesn't believe in this deal, then it's very difficult for anyone in the Cabinet, but obviously, he came in to the position with a lot of history as well, Dominic Raab.
DOS SANTOS: That's right, and he is a trained lawyer. He's actually worked in Brussels that's been part of his whole position, that he knows the EU from the inside. He knows the regulatory framework. He used to be the Justice Minister before. So he's a very well-prepared person, but he's also somebody with some very strong views on Brussels and just like many pro-Brexit members in Theresa May's own party, and indeed her Cabinet, he is obviously fiercely opposed to this.
But I should point, it's not just pro-Brexiteers that are opposed to this deal, on both Labour and inside the Conservative Party, she's having a tough time selling this to people from the pro-remain camp because they say, it will be better to be inside the EU than to have this kind of deal inked on paper.
FOSTER: So we understood didn't we that several senior ministers have spoken out against this deal in the Cabinet meeting yesterday. This seems to confirm that. What were you hearing about the discussion around the table?
[04:10:10]
DOS SANTOS: Well, we saw many press reports suggesting that some ministers were moved to tears that there might have been shouting and raised tempers. Tempers frayed throughout the course of those negotiations. As I was saying before, when Theresa May came out and said that she had managed to get agreement from her Cabinet, she did not say unanimous agreement. She managed to pull together a collective agreement even when she had a unanimous agreement after her famous Chequers plan, when she had to rally her Cabinet around in an offsite in her country residence, effectively put them under lockdown to get them to agree. It only took 48 hours for that to unravel.
But the previous Brexit Secretary David Davis resigning, that precipitated Boris Johnson's resignation as Foreign Secretary. He may well challenge her here in a leadership contest which could start to gather pace between now and Christmas.
Now, let's just go back to the time frame of what we had to negotiate here, even if Theresa May does manage to stay in power. We've got that meeting that Erin was talking about in Brussels on November the 25th. As per this morning, we know that that meeting will probably be convened because of this text, but then before recess gets going, which is December the 20th, Theresa May has to try and get this deal via Parliament and then early next year, it has to go through the European Parliament. So there's still three more hurdles to go.
FOSTER: We had this Northern Ireland Minister, didn't we? Shailesh Vara also resigning today. That was sort of expected, then Dominic Raab. If we continue the narrative here and there is a vote of confidence, the alternative to that would be perhaps her offering a second referendum. That's the other discussion going on here.
DOS SANTOS: Well, this topic came up last week when Jo Johnson, the brother of Boris Johnson who of course is pro-leave, former Foreign Secretary Jo Johnson being pro-remain. He wants to stay inside the EU. He resigned from his position saying that essentially just as his brother said, but for different reasons, this deal that Theresa May has put on the table offers vacillations to the EU as he put it or otherwise no deal scenario of economic chaos and he said that the failure to present another option to the British people was as he put it, the biggest failure of British state craft since the Suez Canal crisis.
And he said that the UK was facing its most precipitous crisis since World War II because of the issue of Brexit. What's key about Jo Johnson's resignation is that that was the first time we saw a senior government member ask for another referendum. Number 10 at the time, said they wouldn't call one, but maybe that might change.
FOSTER: And Jo Johnson, obviously, they were regarded in comparison with his brother dare I say, well, he's very respected within Westminster, right, across the board as a serious politician.
DOS SANTOS: That's right. He's seen as a very measured and diligent politician.
FOSTER: Okay, Erin, so Dominic Raab widely seen as a group of very senior Cabinet ministers who were against this deal presented before the Cabinet yesterday. There could possibly be more resignations if we go by the example of what we've seen today. We're not even at 10:00 yet. How might the European Union respond to this or are they leaving all of this down to local politics now to just deal with whatever comes out the other side?
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, we have yet to hear from any EU leaders or any EU officials on this latest development, Max. We are expecting to hear from Guy Verhofstadt very shortly there. He is the Brexit negotiator for the EU Parliament; perhaps he'll comment on the political situation playing out there at Westminster.
But for the most part, EU leaders and EU officials have shied away from commenting on the politics of the situation in the UK, although they're acutely aware of the fragile position in which Theresa May finds herself.
Yesterday, it's worth noting that yesterday, as all of this was playing out there with Theresa May as she was having this marathon Cabinet meeting trying to sell this deal to her Cabinet, there was radio silence here in Brussels. It was very difficult to get any EU official or any EU diplomat to give me anything, even off the record.
Everyone was very concerned about any leaks having the potential to rock the boat, so to speak, and again, we heard from Donald Tusk this morning saying that this summit, this extraordinary summit will go ahead on November 25th now that this withdrawal agreement, this deal has been reached and signed off on the Cabinet, but he said that it will go ahead as long as there are no extraordinary events happening to get in the way of that summit.
He did not outline what sort of extraordinary events would prevent this summit from happening, but again, it's clear that they're watching what's going on in London right now as it's important as well to keep in mind that the capitals are currently scrutinizing ...
[04:15:10]
MCLAUGHLIN: ... this deal as well. Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach yesterday saying that he plans to put the text to vote in Irish Parliament there in Dublin So, the mechanisms are in place to get this summit to happen on the 25th of November. But again, Brussels watching very closely to see how the politics play out in London.
FOSTER: Okay, Erin. Thank you. We're just getting confirmation from the House of Commons that Theresa May's statement to the Commons will be at 10:30 a.m. local, 11:30 a.m. where Erin is, 5:30 Eastern. The House of Commons is saying, government statements generally last one hour. Though this one could be longer. I think, she's obviously got a lot to say, a lot to explain. This is the last time we heard from her last night after that last marathon Cabinet meeting.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAY: The Cabinet has had a long detailed and impassioned debate on the draft withdrawal agreement and the outlined political declaration on our future relationship with the European Union. These documents were the result of thousands of hours of hard negotiation by UK officials and many, many meetings, which I and all the ministers held with our EU counterparts.
I firmly believe that the draft withdrawal agreement was the best that could be negotiated and it was for the Cabinet to decide whether to move on in the talks. The choices before us were difficult, particularly in relation to the Northern Ireland back stop, but the collective decision of Cabinet was that the government should agree the draft withdrawal agreement and the outlined political declaration. This is a decisive step which enables us to move on and finalize the deal in the days ahead.
These decisions were not taken lightly, but I believe it is a decision that is firmly in the national interest. When you strip away the detail, the choice before us is clear. This deal which delivers on the vote of the referendum which brings back control of our money, laws and borders, ends free movement, protects jobs, security and our union or leave with no deal or no Brexit at all.
I know that there will be difficult days ahead. This is a decision which will come under intense scrutiny and that is entirely as it should be and entirely understandable, but the choice was this deal, which enables us to take back control and to build a brighter future for our country or going back to square one with more division, more uncertainty and a failure to deliver on the referendum.
It's my job as Prime Minister to explain the decisions that the government has taken and I stand ready to do that. Beginning tomorrow with a statement in Parliament. If I may end by just saying this, I believe what I owe to this country is to take decisions that are in the national interest and I firmly believe with my head and my heart that this is a decision which in the best interest of our entire United Kingdom.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOSTER: That was before her Brexit Secretary, a big piece of the Cabinet resigned. We've just had that news in the last hour or so, and since that news came through, Nina, the pound is down.
DOS SANTOS: It has. It's absolutely plunged on the back of Dominic Raab's resignation here and the concern here is that this just throws the business community into further uncertainty.
Now, after that five-hour marathon Cabinet meeting, Theresa may went to go and meet reportedly with the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn to try and muster enough support for trying to get this deal through Parliament. She's going to face a bit of a grilling in an hour's time as you were pointing out, perhaps it will last longer than the scheduled one hour, hopefully not five hours like the Cabinet meeting, but as she was meeting with the leader of the opposition party, Philip Hammond was actually hosting a conference but with key business leaders to try and reassure them that this was better than the precipice of a no deal type scenario.
The problem with the start of these senior resignations with the Brexit Secretary going, the second Brexit Secretary in a year to go after David Davis is that that plunges the business community back into uncertainty again and the threat of no deal resurfaces.
FOSTER: Absolutely, they just want to know what's going to happen next year in March next year and this is the struggle, not only businesses have got, but general members of the public in the UK who are lost in the detail anyway. They just want to know how to plan.
DOS SANTOS: Absolutely. And then as some people will also argue that this deal that we have here, this technical deal, if indeed it manages to go through Brussels, through Parliament, back to the EU Parliament, that it encompasses goods which actually is 15% of the UK economy.
[04:20:05]
DOS SANTOS: The bulk of the UK economy is services. A lot of those services are financial services and what we saw in this text here, this technical document in the 585 pages is that a lot of the financial transactions will be up to individual states to negotiate with the UK, that could also mean that that gives a kind of clash to the EU to grab the crown jewels of the London economy and a large part of the UK's economy as well.
FOSTER: Britain's Brexit Secretary has resigned. Dominic Raab, we're waiting to hear who is going to replace him. We're waiting to hear what future Theresa May has. Will this precipitate a collapse in her leadership? No one can say for sure what will happen when the UK leaves the European Union next March especially if Parliament does reject the deal now on the table. Here's a look back at the key moments for you that brought us to this point.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
QUEEN ELIZABETH II, QUEEN OF UNITED KINGDOM: My government will renegotiate the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union. Alongside this, early legislation will be introduced to provide for an in/out referendum on membership with the European Union before the end of 2017.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When people vote, they must make a decision which flag is theirs. And I want, I want us to live under British passports and under the British flag.
DAVID CAMERON, FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM: I believe that despite its faults and its frustrations, the United Kingdom is stronger, safer and better off by remaining a member of the European Union.
BORIS JOHNSON, MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT OF THE UNITED KINGDOM: I will be advocating they leave because I want a better deal for the people of this country.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The total number of votes cast in favor of remain was 16,141,241. The total number of votes cast in favor of leave was 17,410,742. This means that UK has voted to leave the European Union.
CAMERON: I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our can country to its next destination.
MAY: Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So this is six pages, the notification from Prime Minister Theresa May triggering Article 50.
MAY: As we look ahead and we wait to see what the final results will be, I know that as I say the country needs a period of stability.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Deal or no deal, Mrs. Foster. What price for DUP support?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: As I said many times, the best and most obvious solution would be for the United Kingdom to remain in the customs union and the single market, but as the British government has ruled that option out, it must offer credible, concrete and workable solutions that guarantee that there will be no hard border.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (Through a translator): We have reached an agreement on the transition period. The transition will be of limited duration as requested by both the British government and the European Union.
MAY: We will not rerun the referendum. We will deliver Brexit and the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union on the 29th of March 2019.
[04:25:10]
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOSTER: Well, so much has happened with Brexit. So many people are lost in all the detail, but today certainly is a momentous day in the process. The Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigning, which in itself is a big deal, but when you consider what happened yesterday and what Theresa May is trying to get through, this is the deal she said is make or break. This is the deal that she could get through. She said it wasn't ideal but this is the best she could do.
DOS SANTOS: But it was a deal.
FOSTER: And then she's got a resignation today. The pound has fallen by 1% against the dollar.
DOS SANTOS: That's right.
FOSTER: What sort of reaction are you hearing from here in Westminster?
DOS SANTOS: Well, first of all, let's start out with reaction on the Twitter sphere and particularly coming from Nigel Farage who of course is agitation against the EU who helped precipitate the referendum in the first place, didn't it?
It was pressure from the UK Independence Party that largely caused David Cameron and pressure from his own party to table a referendum and then the British people voted for Brexit two years ago.
He has tweeted, "Well done, Dominic Raab. A few more and we'll be rid of this duplicitous Prime Minister." So obviously, what he is referring to there is on the one hand resignations from inside the Cabinet. There are reportedly up to 10 pro-Brexit members of the Cabinet who are against Theresa May. Yesterday, she managed to get it through in some kind of collective majority, but it was by no means unanimous.
So he's talking about resignations there, but also potential leadership contest because MPs can now vote to sort of write to 1922 back bench committee, a specialized committee to say that they want a vote of confidence. In terms of the math, Parliamentary-wise you need 48 members of the Conservative Party to write to that committee and then the leadership contest can be challenged.
FOSTER: Right now we're really looking to see if any of those other 10 in the Cabinet follow Dominic Raab.
DOS SANTOS: That's right, and the fact that Raab has been the first to go is highly significant here because he is the second Brexit Secretary to have resigned in the last year or so since Theresa May softened her stance with the so-called Chequers compromise with the EU.
His predecessor was David Davis, very pro-Brexit, a mentor to Dominic Raab. Now, we've had two pro-Brexit secretaries resign. Based on the fact that they say this is just one compromise too far, it leaves the UK in a halfway house, still beholden to the EU and the UK cannot unilaterally divorce itself from any kind of future transition period. There's big questions over how Northern Ireland will be governed as well, and that of course throws into question the support the Conservative Party rules with, with the DUP.
So as I think I've mentioned before, Max is a question of choosing between the devil you know and the devil you can don't know and Theresa May is also in half an hour's time going to have to deliver this message to the House of Commons.
FOSTER: Yes, I think it's actually an hour's time. It's 10:30 local time, Theresa May is going to be giving a statement to the House. It's likely to last more than an hour. Of course, we'll bring it all to you live. We'll be back in just a moment.
[04:30:00]
FOSTER: Welcome to CNN. We're coming live from Westminster where we've just heard that the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab has resigned. A huge moment because it was just yesterday that Theresa May presented her plan - a Brexit plan to the Cabinet and this is the result.
There's also a junior minster as well resigning a little earlier on. I am joined by Chuka Umunna who is from the opposition Labour Party and a prominent remainer as well. What's the atmosphere like this morning off the back of this news?
CHUKA UMUNNA, BRITISH MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, LABOUR PARTY: Well, it's quite febrile, if I describe it like that and nobody was thinking this was going to be anything than a very bumpy ride. But, the irony, look for your viewers watching around the world, what you're seeing here in the UK, a number of leading political figures who led the vote leave campaign in 2016 for the UK to leave the European Union, Dominic Raab who has just resigned was one of them. Your viewers maybe more familiar with a guy called Boris Johnson who used to be our Foreign Secretary. There are others like David Davis, who was Dominic Raab's predecessor who were all at the forefront of the argument for us to leave the European Union. And the problem that they faced is that ultimately, a huge number of
impossible promises were made in that campaign and essentially what they're seeking to do now is punish their Prime Minister for not being able to square the circle of fantasy that was sold to the British public.
FOSTER: But you're unhappy with this deal on the table as well, right? As a remainer.
UMUNNA: Yes.
FOSTER: So aren't you in sync with Dominic Raab, at least to that extent. That you don't this to go through.
UMUNNA: Well, I'm not in sync with him because I didn't create this mess and the chaos in the first place. And I think this is why these people are quite shameless is that they've created this mess and chaos and then they've left the field when it comes to actually delivering it because it's proved to be impossible to deliver and the problem we've got here in the UK is that this place behind me, the House of Commons of which I am a member cannot agree on what form of Brexit should be pursued.
Because the form of Brexit that people thought they were going to get has proved impossible to deliver, and whilst there is a majority in the British House of Commons for the UK not to leave the European Union without any agreement at all, it cannot agree on how to leave the European Union if it is go toing to leave with an agreement and that's why the cause and the momentum behind the argument for us refer this back to the people and the people's vote, another referendum to determine what happens with remain being on the ballot is really growing here in the UK. More and more Parliamentarians are actually coming around to the view.
Boris Johnson, the ex-Foreign Secretary, his brother Jo Johnson who was a senior minister in the government, he resigned on Friday arguing that we've got to refer this back to the people. We've had over a million people sign a petition here. Over 700,000 were on the streets here campaigning in a march a few weeks ago.
So there's a momentum coming in behind the people's vote campaign in the UK for the simple reason that the impasse behind me is meaning that the grid lock here is not going to provide an answer.
FOSTER: Jacob Rees-Mogg, he is in the opposite party, the Conservative Party, he says a second referendum just beget a third referendum. And you can keep having referendums when we should really just honor the first referendum. So what's your argument to the British people who still believe that they would - that Britain is best off outside the European Union, but should be --
UMUNNA: It's two fold, really. Democracy is not a static thing, it's dynamic. In this country, we have general elections every five years because people's views change and circumstances change. And you know, there is a contradiction to say that to refer something back to the people and to have a vote is undemocratic. It's not as if, if you voted to leave the European Union in 2016, there was somebody standing in the ballot booth with you this year telling you, you will vote to remain. You actually is the person who decides. That's whole point off democracy.
And the second thing I would say is that, this is quite a unique issue, Brexit, because what people have discovered is that it literally effects every single aspect of life. You know, one of the big issues in the UK right now is the future of our health service as healthcare was a big issue in the midterms in the US.
And one of the things our people were told is that if you vote to leave the European Union, you're going to get hundreds of millions of pounds more going to the national health service, and in fact, that hasn't happened as a result of Brexit. And we've got a lot of EU citizens who aren't British, but work in our national health service who are fleeing their national health service in droves. We've had over 10,000 leave and yet we have 100,000 vacancies for nurses, doctors and other medical staff in RNHS.
And that's the thing. This really is impacting on every single aspect on life, and funny enough, that's what general elections do as well and we do have those quite frequently.
[04:35:05]
FOSTER: So if Theresa May loses more members of her own party in terms of support for this deal, she is going to have convince some members of your party to go and vote with it instead, isn't she?
UMUNNA: Yes.
FOSTER: What can she do today when she appears in an hour or so to convince some Labour Party members to support her deal?
UMUNNA: I think there's very little because ultimately, she has to show that she can get the exact same benefits that we currently enjoy as members of the European Union, of the single market and the customs union, the economic structures of the European Union. And she has rolled out to us being anything really to do with those and short of that, I cannot see any circumstances where a large number of Labour MPs are going to back this deal.
In fact, I'd say, I think it's probably going to be less than five Labour MPs in fact, who may rebel and vote with her for her deal.
FOSTER: So just explain how technically that leaves the British Parliament, the Prime Minister's position?
UMUNNA: So basically what's going to happen is, at the moment, at the main, this could the result of what happens today. There is scheduled to be a special meeting of the European Council - the European Union's Council of Leaders on Sunday, the 25th of November. There the deal or the agreement, I don't think we should call it a deal because frankly, the future trading relationship isn't part of this that will come after the UK has left if it leaves. But you will get an agreement there which will then come back to the
House of Commons. Now, we're expecting a vote on that in the middle of December preceded by five days of debate. Now, if at that point the vote approves the agreement, then it goes through. If it doesn't, there are a number of options open to the House of Commons. It could choose to leave without the deal. I don't believe it will do that because there's no majority for it.
They could opt to refer this back to the electorate and that is a very real option. It could choose to come up with a different solution, send the Prime Minster back to negotiate to Brussels and maybe settle around us staying in the European economic area and the customs union, but not being full members.
So there are a range of options and the most significant thing from the Prime Minister's statements outside the steps of number 10 Downing Street yesterday was that she acknowledged these options.
She said, "Look, you know when you sweep away the detail, we can either choose to accept my deal, leave with no deal or actually stay in." That was very significant because it's the first time the Prime Minister has acknowledged, Brexit may not happen because it's such a catastrophic mess.
FOSTER: Behind the scenes you hear the Conservative Party, one of their big concerns being that if there isn't enough support for Theresa May, that will prompt a general election and your leader, Jeremy Corbyn would get into power. You're not particularly close to that side of the party, but do you think that's honestly realistic?
UMUNNA: I think it's quite unrealistic. Because in order for there to be a general election, two thirds of the House of Commons would have to vote for it for an early general election on it, scheduled general election for your viewers is 2022, and so the only way you can bring it forward is by two thirds of the House of Commons who are voting for it and that would require a substantial number of Conservative MPs to support that proposition and I haven't spoken to any Conservative MP that wants to see a general election.
And frankly, I am not sure how welcome the British public would find that. We only had one last year, and so I think it's quite unlikely.
FOSTER: What about the idea that Theresa May could be ousted as leader, would that cause untold delay to the Brexit process because then there will be a Tory Party leadership contest and you guys are going to be caught up in that as well?
UMUNNA: Well, I don't think it is outside the bounds of possibility that she could resign as the Conservative Party leader and then challenge any person who wishes to pursue a different course to stand against her.
John Major did in 1995. He was then the Conservative Prime Minister, again on Europe was finding a lot of blow back and a lot of discontent from his back bench Tory MPs and he said, "Look, put up or shut up. You keep me and we go down my course or you can get someone else." And in the end one person stood, John Redwood who stood in the House of Commons. He was then the Welsh Secretary and he got obliterated.
I have to say, if - and these people, Dominic Raab has mainly done this, in part, he has some problems with the agreement, there's no doubt about that, but he is one of the primary people being mooted as succeeding Theresa May.
The thing is for these people, why would you want to become Prime Minister in these circumstances? I think the current Prime Minister, Theresa May, I have nothing against her personally, but I do believe that history would judge her to be one of the worst Prime Ministers this country has seen in a long time.
FOSTER: Unless she gets the deal through.
UMUNNA: In spite of that because I think the deal will be disastrous, absolutely disastrous for our country and our economy. And if you are the person to succeed her in this mess, you may end up going down as the worst Prime Minister even than she. I am not sure that's the note on which you would want to start your premiership.
FOSTER: There's a view from a member of the Labour Party, prominent remainer as well. I'll let you go inside. You're going to be watching the speech, no doubt.
UMUNNA: Thank you.
FOSTER: Thank you very much, Chuka Umunna, so Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary has resigned. We are wondering whether or not other members of the Cabinet here against this deal will resign as well. We will wait to see. We will bring you any updates on it, and of course, the Prime Minister's speech to Parliament which is in about 50 minutes' time.
[04:40:10]
FOSTER: Welcome to Westminster. We've just heard that the Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has resigned, the junior Northern Ireland Minister has resigned and letters are coming into Parliament as well. At least one, we understand, from the Conservative Party calling for a leadership election. So Theresa May looking very vulnerable today when after a big meeting yesterday with her Cabinet when she presented a draft plan on the sort of Brexit she envisages.
She said it wasn't an ideal plan, but she did manage to get it through Cabinet, but off the back of that that Dominic Raab has resigned and there could be other big beasts of the Cabinet going as well some people here are suggesting. We'll keep across that for you.
She's due to speak in about three quarters of an hour in Parliament behind me. We'll bring that to you live.
Earlier the European Council President Donald Tusk and the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier spoke about the Brexit plan from Brussels.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD TUSK, PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN COUNCIL: Thank you very much,
Michel. I took good note of Prime Minister May's statement yesterday. Of course, I don't share the Prime Minister's enthusiasm about Brexit as such. Since the very beginning, we have had no doubt that Brexit is a lose-lose situation, and that our negotiations are only about damage control.
Given these extremely difficult circumstances, I would like to thank Michel Barnier and his team, especially Sabine Weyand and Stephanie Riso, for doing this exceptionally hard work. Michel, we all put a lot of trust in you, and rightly so. You have achieved our two most important objectives. First, you ensured the limitation of the damage caused by Brexit and, second, you secured the vital interests and principles of the 27 member states, and of the European Union as a whole. If I weren't confident that you did your best to protect the interests of the twenty?seven, and I am familiar with the essence of the document, I would not propose to formalize this deal.
In the next days, we will proceed as follows. The agreement is now being analyzed by all the member states. By the end of this week, the EU27 ambassadors will meet in order to share their assessment of the agreement. I hope that there will not be too many comments. They will also discuss the mandate for the Commission to finalize the Joint Political Declaration about the future relations between the EU and the UK. The European ministers will be involved in this process. The Commission intends to agree the declaration about the future with the UK by Tuesday. Over the following 48 hours, the member states will have time to evaluate it ...
[04:45:08]
TUSK: ... which means that the EU27 Sherpas should conclude this work on Thursday. Then, if nothing extraordinary happens, we will hold a European Council meeting, in order to finalize and formalize the Brexit agreement. It will take place on Sunday, the 25th November at 9:30 a.m.
Finally, let me say this to our British friends. As much as I am sad to see you leave, I will do everything to make this farewell the least painful possible, both for you and for us. Thank you. Thank you, Michel.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOSTER: Well, Erin joins us from Brussels. That was before we had the news on Dominic Raab, obviously, in Brussels, they're not jumping around on every Brexit detail as they are here in London, but what sort of reaction do you think Dominic Raab's resignation will here there?
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, we don't really expect to hear from EU leaders or EU officials on a specific resignation, the play by play happening there in London. Of course, a situation that they are keeping a careful eye on.
It's worth pointing out as Donald Tusk did in that presser that this is seen as a lose-lose situation and it really has for both the UK and the EU that this process all along from the standpoint of Brussels was about introducing certainty into an uncertain process, which is why they were pushing this withdrawal agreement that include as citizens' rights, detailed financial settlement as well amounting to tens of billions of pounds to be paid by the UK to the EU as well as the Northern Ireland back stop solution, which is and has been the main sticking point all along in this process assuring that the Good Friday Agreement will be upheld is main priority of the EU making sure that no hard border will ever be or need to be introduced on the island of Ireland while also honoring the integrity of the single market.
That has been the EU's priority. It's a process again that was designed to introduce certainty, but has created political chaos for the United Kingdom and you have to wonder if this deal doesn't go through, if it's not ultimately passed by Parliament with Theresa May's future in doubt, what happens next and the commission this week published over 70 papers, Max preparing for that no deal option, which is really seen as the worst possible outcome in this process.
FOSTER: We're expecting to hear about who will replace Dominic Raab. Some debate about whether there would be a leaver, whether any well respected or self-respecting leaver would want to take that position whether or not the position is even redundant now going forward.
But it's a crucial position, isn't it because that's the liaison with much of the discussions and negotiations taking place in Brussels.
MCLAUGHLIN: Absolutely. I mean, the UK's technical negotiator Olly Robbins obviously remains in place, but the question marks in this for the EU have always been at the political level and Barnier this morning making it very clear that much more work needs to be done on that front and it needs to be done in short order by November 25th. Yes, they have this 585-page withdrawal agreement, but more work is needed on the political declaration outlining the future relationship between the EU and the UK now a question mark as to who from Whitehall is going to be doing that on behalf of the United Kingdom.
FOSTER: Okay, Erin in Brussels. Thank you. We're also joined by Alastair Campbell. He is a former senior adviser to former Prime Minister Tony Blair. He was very involved in Downing Street, a big player here for many years. What was your response to the news on Dominic Raab today, Alastair?
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR TO PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR: Well, not terribly surprised, to be honest. I mean, I think what was interesting about the Cabinet meeting yesterday is that it was obvious that most of the people in the room were more interested in virtue signaling to the Conservative members that they were not really happy about it than they 333were in doing so.
[04:50:05]
CAMPBELL: But I mean, I think - look, he has realized that if you're from his perspective, a Brexit person, then this is a total capitulation and it's a catastrophic deal. However, it's also bad from my perspective as somebody who believes that Brexit is a very, very bad thing to the country.
So Theresa May in trying to face two ways through the whole thing, she's ended up pleasing absolutely nobody. I mean, I just think we are - Britain is a country at the moment that is projecting such a ridiculous vision to the rest of the world and that we've just got to come to a point where the grownups in the room stand up and say, "Hold on a minute, this cannot go on like this." And I've been campaigning with others for a people's vote on the outcome of the negotiations, and I think that is where this has to go because Parliament is pretty deadlocked.
She can't unite her Cabinet, she certainly can't unite her party. The Parliament is divided over this and ultimately, I think the country has to be given the choice is this what you voted for? Is this what you thought Brexit is going to be, and if it's not, then there should be the possibility of staying in the European Union and I believe that would win and win actually quite comfortably because the country, yes, there's some disagreement about Brexit, but this is the reality of Brexit.
This is not about Theresa May. This is the reality of what people voted for and that truth has to be told.
FOSTER: Some question about whether or not it will be Theresa May to call that second vote if indeed she were to call it. She said she wouldn't. Do you think she's a goner? That's what Paddy Ashdown, the former leader of the Lib-Dems is saying this morning.
CAMPBELL: Well, her position is certainly very, very weak. But I do remember the day after the general election, George Osborn, former Chancellor, now a newspaper editor saying that she was a dead woman walking. She does have - I mean, the one thing I'll give Theresa May, she is 33pretty resilient. She just sort of keeps going. But the fact is that this is now - I mean, her authority is waning very, very fast.
And you were saying there as almost, the fact that the replacement for Dominic Raab is all set like everything inside this government and inside the Conservative Party is all about trying to hold the party together, trying to sort of keep the factions playing off against each other.
And it's just - it's embarrassing. It's embarrassing. I don't know who she'll put there. Ultimately, she's the Prime Minister. She's the one who has to take responsibility for these negotiations. I do understand by the way why she ended up in the position that she did, but it's because she avoided confronting the fundamental choice of the heart of Brexit. Do you want sovereignty and if you want more sovereignty and by the way, she - what's interesting about the Brexiteers' reaction that they say we've always had sovereignty and now we're losing it, so there's this sort of you know blowing part of your own argument.
But you either say you have more sovereignty in which case, we take an economic hit or you're saying, actually no, we have to lean towards the economy. Now, she is trying to lean towards the economy, but she's ended up,
we're going to a hit on the economy and we're going to get less sovereignty. So it's just - people then need to say, what on earth is now the point of this? And people on the Brexit side is saying, "Hold on a minute, this is not Brexit." And we're both right.
FOSTER: We're already taking an economic hit it seems. The pound is down more than 1% now against the dollar off the back of this news on Dominic Raab. I mean, I know that you're working with some corporate clients now as well, and this is a big thing they're concerned about, right, it's the uncertainty away from all of the politics.
CAMPBELL: So I think business has to step up as well. I am in Barcelona at the moment, I am speaking with business people yesterday and there's barely a business person you meet who doesn't think that this is a complete disaster for the UK economy and may need to step up and say that. 33333
And I think there are some moments in national life when I understand why businesses don't like to get too political and - but there are some moments in national life when they have to stand up and call things out for what they are. This is a complete and total car crash. It's not delivering the frictionless trade that they want.
And so I think that businesses are being frankly pretty weak in this whole process. They are looking to somebody else to solve all of the problems. They have to stand up as well and say, "No, this is not going the way that it should." This is going to do fundamental and lasting damage to the economy and it's time that we realize that and start expanding that out clearly.
FOSTER: But what would you say to people watching from other parts of Europe or indeed the world looking on all of this chaos in British politics, not really understanding it and wondering whether or not they should continue doing business with the UK because they just don't know what's going to be happening next year. It's not worth the investment.
CAMPBELL: Well, look, I hope that they would continue to invest in the UK. I hope that any politician that happened to be tuning in to CNN, I hope they don't give up on us because ...
[04:55:10]
CAMPBELL: ... you had Theresa May saying the whole time there will be no second referendum kind of all of this over my dead body sort of stance on that, because she has had Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition saying ,"We can't do anything to stop Brexit," that was wrong, that was wrong about that.
And what I think is if European Union would understand that there is a big movement now in the country for this to be looked at again for the deal, the outcome of the negotiations to be put to the people as long as there is an option to remain, there is no mandate for no deal, but it may be we end up where there is a people's vote, where it's between no deal and no Brexit because her deal I suspect will not survive a Parliamentary vote.
So we'll see where that goes, but I just hope that the people around Europe understand that the politicians that they talk to, the ones that they negotiate with, they are hearing the whole time, Brexit has to happen and there are millions and millions of millions of people in Britain that will say no.
On the leave side this is not what we voted for and on the remain side, this is an even bigger car crash than we thought it was going to be and the country has the right to think again. So I hope the European Union keep people in businesses and politicians in the European Union understand that.
FOSTER: Just one final though, Alastair, in half an hour, Theresa May will leave Downing Street. We've got a camera live on the door, you've been in this situation many times where Tony Blair for example going out and making a huge statement, a statement for his career, really. How can she handle this as she goes into Parliament? She's probably going to be speaking for more than an hour, isn't she? But what would be advising her right now?
CAMPBELL: I mean, it's looking very, very difficult for her now, but what she did yesterday, she takes that and she made the best off a bad job and that's all she can do now. But if that's the summit of UK's ambitions now that we go out to make the best of a bad job.
Look, the advice I would give is advice that she wouldn't take. If I were her, I'd go out and I'd say, "Look, I've done my absolute level best. I've really tried to negotiate what I thought was something in the interest which is the long term interest of the UK and what you delivered on Brexit, and I'll be honest about it, I'm not happy with it. The Cabinet is not happy with it and I know that most of my party is not happy with it, and I don't think the country is happy with it and therefore, having done my best, I would like now to put it back to the people."
I would love if did that and I think actually, the country would breathe a huge sigh of relief amid all the noise and the resignations and all the rest that's going on because what's interesting about referendum is the country has become more and not less divided, and I think it's because the way the referendum was won, the way the negotiations are being done, people are not going to accept the Brexit on these terms, and I think if we went back to the people and there was a more informed campaign and I do believe that actually, there's a design now in the UK that people are on a different course and that involves staying in a reformed European Union.
Now, I know she won't don't do that, but it would be great if she did and I really hope the Labour Party comes out and says - because they've been frankly, they are aligned that they are going to go through a (inaudible) Brexit and just negotiate it better. They are going to face exactly the same issues that she is facing.
You cannot leave the European Union and all the benefits that gives you without losing some of those benefits. That is the truth and it's time the politicians started saying the truth to the people. This cannot be done without damaging the country, therefore, let's put it back to the country on that understanding, do you still want to go or do you want to stay?
FOSTER: Okay, Alistair Campbell, really appreciate your time with us today. Thank you very much indeed. We will see whether or not Theresa May is watching and taking his advice in half an hour when she comes in to Parliament and makes her statement to Parliament. We are hearing that Dominic Raab quit the Cabinet because he cannot support that draft agreement. Will others follow him before that appearance in Parliament, stay with us.
[04:00:00]
