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CNN Live Event/Special

Four Ministers Quitting The Government Including One Of The Key Brexit Negotiators, That's The Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab. Aired: 7-8a ET

Aired November 15, 2018 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MAX FOSTER, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: Now Brexit is supposed to happen in 134 days from now. For British leader Theresa May, the closer it comes, the tougher it gets. Here's a roundup of what's happened just this morning.

Welcome to "CNN Talk." Resignations have been coming thick and fast. So far four ministers quitting the government including one of the key Brexit negotiators, that's the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab. Opposition to the deal centers on proposals for the border between Britain and Ireland, but Mrs. May came out swinging in Parliament with a determined defense of her deal and the Irish backstop.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THERESA MAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I do not pretend that this has been a comfortable process or that either we or the EU are entirely happy with all of the arrangements that have been included within it, but of course this is the case. This is an arrangement that we have both said we never want to have to use. But while some people might pretend otherwise, there is no deal which delivers the Brexit that the British people voted for which does not involve this insurance policy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Well, she didn't convince everyone. She was savaged by the opposition leader who called her plan quote "half-baked." The path through Parliament, which must vote on her deal is becoming more and more difficult by the minute it seems. Do have your say, go to facebook.com/cnni. Lisa says, "The pain and chaos is temporary." Fred says, "I'm afraid she will not survive. I predict that heads will roll and it's already started," but Margaret says, "No, she can't survive. Time for a general election."

Ian, you're very well connected in the Conservative Party, what's been the debate amongst Conservative MPs today?

IAN DALE, RADIO HOST, LBC: Well, there doesn't seem to be much of a debate about whether this deal that she's got is a good one or not. Virtually everyone who has spoken in this debate this morning slammed it. I can't think of a single Conservative MP - well, I was watching it - that stood up and said, "Well done, Prime Minister."

Normally, they've set these occasions where MPs do stand up, congratulate the Prime Minister on a wonderful job that she is doing. Here, virtually, every MP is saying, whether they are on the Brexit side of the debate or the remain side of the debate, this is the worst possible deal.

And so it would be that I take, I said yesterday on "CNN Talk" and I've written about it since, that being an ardent Brexiteer myself, I could not support this deal. I would rather stay in the European Union than support this deal because I think it's incredibly damaging to Britain as a country. And it does draw a line in the middle of the Irish Sea that Northern Ireland would be treated very separately.

So I can't see how she can get this through Parliament. Mark Francois, his Deputy Chairman of the European Research Group, a group of Eurosceptic MPs, he said directly to her in the Commons, the arithmetic does not stack up. You cannot get this through Parliament, Prime Minister. It's about time you recognize that.

And yet she is very stoic, she's motoring on. I think she will put it to Parliament, but what happens next - so we expect she gets it in front of everyone and there's a special summit in Brussels because all the EU leaders are going to turn around and she's going to say, "Very well, we're coming here. We wasted our weekends to come here, Theresa, and you're not going to get this through your Parliament? That's a question which I suspect none of us know the answer to.

FOSTER: Meanwhile, these letters are going in to the Conservative back bench committee calling for a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister, which would be a distraction at best from the Brexit process.

NINA SCHICK, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Absolutely. Those 48 letters that need to go in and you know, the kind of past two years we've heard how the 48 letters might have already gone in. I think this time it's different because obviously, this is the culmination of two years of negotiation, and as Ian rightly correctly pointed out, everyone is unhappy, whether you're a remainer or you're a leaver.

And the fundamental question then ask is why? You know, is this because of Theresa May's negotiating tactics or is this because this is inevitably where the UK would end up? I say the latter is true. I say the latter is true and I think that even if, let's say, Dominic Raab became the Prime Minister or have Michael Gove or Boris Johnson or any of the other contenders, been in the position that Theresa May has been in, in the past few years, they would not have been able to negotiate a better deal, which is why I think it was my position ahead of these negotiations to say that you know, Britain actually has the best of both worlds right now remaining in its place as it should be.

I think in is quite right. Nobody knows what happens next, but I think it's safe to that the fallout is going to be domestically and I think the EU leaders are kind of looking at this.

[07:05:10]

SCHICK: And they have enough of their own troubles and kind of scratching their head and wondering what's going to happen next. FOSTER: The deal is going to be ratified on the 25th of November by

these European leaders, but we don't know what is going to happen between now and then and there is this debate about whether it will get through Parliament.

BONNIE GREER, PLAYWRIGHT AND COLUMNIST, THE NEW EUROPEAN: Well, I mean I can't see how it gets through. I'm sure she doesn't. She has made herself a sacrifice because of her own integrity. She said is going to deliver it. She has brought it. I'm on the opposite side of being in the sense that I am a staunch remainer and I agree with Nina, this was always going to end up this way.

The vote was illogical to begin with. So you're going to have a conclusion that's going to be illogical. No one is ever - we don't hear a lot in this country, which has always perplexed me and I am saying this as an outsider. I never heard people actually discuss the fact that A, the United Kingdom is the supplicant in this matter. They went to the EU and said, "We'd like a trade deal. We're leaving, but we really want a trade deal." The EU says, "Fine, let's talk about a trade deal." There is no way in the world - well, okay, but - don't start - but okay, I'll take your point, but at the end of the day, the EU's job is to protect its own integrity.

It has 27 other countries it has to relate to. It cannot create a parallel EU. This is never talked about in this country. I don't understand why. And that to have a special deal for the United Kingdom, a special shape, a special trade deal, a special whatever is to create a parallel EU for this organization. Why should they do it?

DALE: You are right in that the EU has to look after its own interest, I completely understand that, but it is in their interest, as well as our interest to come to some sort of agreement. Now, they said at the beginning, we won't talk about a trade deal until we've agreed to a withdrawal deal, and so the trade talks have not even started.

GREER: Yes, that's right. That's right.

DALE: But bear in mind the trade imbalance between the EU and the UK where they export so much more to us than we export to them --

GREER: But Ian, you're being logical. You're being logical. What I'm trying to say is the EU has to play to 27 other nations. It can't set a precedent that doesn't punish this country. Nobody is asking --

DALE: Nobody is suggesting a precedent. What they are suggesting is that we come to a free trade deal just like any other country.

SCHICK: Could I --

GREER: If you're leaving the EU, no one has done it before.

DALE: Fair enough, I mean that's their choice.

SCHICK: No, I think to jump right in, the reason why we have not gotten to the trade deal part yet is because the past two years have been clogged up with the complicated negotiations about leaving and that was something that was said in 2016. I mean, I was the one who said it saying, negotiating a trade deal is complicated, it will take much longer than has been expected by what the Brexiteer contingent is saying.

DALE: If I may say so, now that need not be the case just very briefly, that need not be case because we already have a trade deal. We just have to tweak it. We don't have to start from scratch.

GREER: Obviously, it's not a tweak.

SCHICK: But the reason it can't be tweaked is because what the UK is asking for vis-a-vis the future relationship is not permissible under EU's rules, right, because the UK laid out itself that it wants to leave the single market and the customs union, which is fine, which would have taken us to a kind of --

GREER: Exactly. It's not a member of the EU.

SCHICK: Exactly, but Ian, you know that the issue of Ireland is a matter that has complicated that because that --

DALE: The European Union has chosen that.

SCHICK: No.

GREER: But Ireland is Europe.

SCHICK: No, because there can be no border on the island of Ireland. Everyone is united on that.

DALE: There is a border, at least by the Irish Police. There is a border.

SCHICK: And the EU has to - if you're leaving the customs union and the single market, EU has to have a way of monitoring what comes in and out of its external borders.

FOSTER: Brexit will lead to May exit says Fred. Lots have been questioning whether Theresa May can stay in her position, but absolutely powerful and resilient performance considering everything she's been through ...

GREER: I think so. I think it's awesome.

FOSTER: ... over the last 24 hours in Parliament and the debate continues there. It's fair to say that most of the comments and the questions have been quite negative about this as the panel both remainers and leavers pretty upset by this general - let's just dip into what they are saying in the moment.

(HOUSE OF COMMONS COVERAGE)

[07:10:00]

FOSTER: This really has been a marathon session there in Parliament just as it was a marathon Cabinet meeting of some five hours yesterday. John on Facebook says, "Unfortunately like the deal on Brexit, Theresa May is dead in the water." Steve says, Mogg, referring to Jacob Rees-Mogg, he's virtually said that he is backing a vote of no confidence, Ian. I think this is "The Telegraph" reporting that Jacob Rees-Mogg has put in a letter of no confidence and that would tip the balance.

DALE: ... it was about to, and (inaudible) no one knows if this tip the balance. There's only one person who knows that and that's going very deep, and this is - you're right. This is a marathon session and Theresa May is involved in here.

I just looked on Twitter, the fact that there are 20 more Tory MPs are going to speak and there has to be 20 more in the opposition as well. This could go on for another hour, an hour and a half possibly.

I would say it's unprecedented to be on this long. So I think of Theresa May's position, whatever you think of what she's done in this deal, the pressure is really on her now. There are parallels that go back to 1990 when Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, she called in her Cabinet one by one to consult them on what they thought she should do just as Theresa May did last night - was it last night? I am not sure. Time flies, isn't it?

And it was in the middle of November. Margaret Thatcher went to Paris to some security summit (inaudible).

FOSTER: I think there's a problem with your phone, the world isn't hearing your profound comments.

GREER: I'll repeat. I'll repeat. I mean, you know, Ian is basically talking about the parallel of 1990, Margaret Thatcher calling in her Cabinet one by one and then going to Paris for the security talk and actually being told that she's lost and she should come back and do the honorable thing.

So this is - those of us who can remember those days, Ian is giving us that parallel which is brilliant. But I would say this is even deeper than this and I can't believe I'm about to say this, but she's the most courageous PM I've ever seen.

FOSTER: She's definitely a very strong character, isn't she?

GREER: If she's going down, that's for sure, and she is --

DALE: Strong and stable.

FOSTER: Strong and stable, her own words.

GREER: She is being strong and stable, she's delivering something that is undeliverable, but --

FOSTER: Okay, we'll be back in just a moment, but we stay live on Facebook.

[07:15:00] FOSTER: On Facebook, Rotna says, "May has to go. If Britain wants a

proper Brexit," Rodwell says, "She'll be gone by the end of the week." Mark though says, "May, managed a tough debate in the Commons," and Ann said, "Every (inaudible) with facts, not anecdotes or emotion." Certainly showing huge amounts of resilience today. Let's just dip into part of her main debate earlier on.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THERESA MAY, PRIME MINISTER OF GREAT BRITAIN: So Mr. Speaker, the choice is clear. We can choose to leave with no deal, we can risk no Brexit at all, or we can choose to unite and support the best deal that can be negotiated. This deal, a deal that ends free movement, takes back control of or our borders, laws, and money, delivers a free trade area for goods with zero tariffs, leaves the common agricultural policy and the common fisheries policy, delivers an independent foreign and defense policy while retaining the continued security cooperation to keep our people safe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: This after she had the news this morning that two Cabinet ministers resigned. Other ministers, too. And officials as well in response to the Cabinet meeting yesterday.

DALE: Well, that's actually a really good point because her Director of Legislation resigned this morning. This was the woman who was going to try to steer this legislation through Parliament. Now, I presume she's resigned because she realized that she couldn't do it or whether maybe she disagreed with the deal as well.

Nobody has ever heard of this one. I can't even remember her name now, but she is a vital cog in the Downing Street machinery. Now for a Prime Minister to have to stand up in the Commons literally what? Ninety minutes after hearing that your Brexit Secretary had resigned and then of course, just after that happened I tweeted that I predict there will be another one about half an hour before she stands up on her feet, I was exactly right, Esther McVey and I had no prior knowledge of that, but it's just instinct that there is going to be every hour. It's going to be a slow drip-drip through the day. And it will be death by a thousand cuts. It's a horrible expression, but that's what she's going through at the moment.

And to give that performance in the Commons, it's a bit like, again, I'm going to harp back to 1990. Margaret Thatcher, when she had already announced her resignation, she had to stand up and respond to a no confidence motion from the leader of the opposition and gave the speech of her life. That wasn't the speech of Theresa May's life, but it was very impressive nonetheless.

FOSTER: She still has got a very clear position, hasn't she? As to why she should stay in power and she could probably argue that, couldn't she?

SCHICK: Yes, I think that she really believes she has done the best she could do given the cards that she was dealt and had anybody else been in her position, I personally don't think they would have delivered a better deal. I've already laid out the reasons why.

And what is clear is that if Theresa May goes, we don't know exactly what will happen. But it will not mean political - it will be political chaos for the United Kingdom because we don't know what happens if Parliament votes down the deal. We don't know what happens if the government collapses. We don't know what's going happen and we're 134 days away from this monumental decision that the United Kingdom took to leave European Union.

[07:20:07]

FOSTER: And leadership contest in the Conservative Party are famously long winded.

GREER: Well, from what I know, and Ian knows a hundred times more about better than I do about this, but the little that I know is there has to be a challenge. You have to send these letters into the 1922 Committee, which is the back bench Tory committee, Graham Brady is the head. I guess, there's a certain number of letters --

DALE: I just did my research on that.

GREER: Forty-eight, isn't it? Forty eight letters.

DALE: It's actually, it can be a lengthy process, but it can be truncated just as when Theresa May took over after David Cameron, that didn't go to the party membership so there was no party vote.

DALE: Because there was only ultimately one candidate.

GREER: Right, right.

DALE: Because the other one withdrew but I think what's going to happen here is that it has to go to the party membership. They can't really do that again, but they can truncate the time table probably to three or four weeks.

GREER: Can I just add into that, what the public needs to know that what the Conservative back benchers are doing are picking their new leader. That new leader becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Now, we don't - by default. Because that's the position. Either then something happens in Parliament in which the leader of the opposition says we have to have an election now to ask the people, go to the country to ask the people if this is what you want. This is the chaos Nina just referred to, and let's hope that it doesn't get to this point.

FOSTER: Juan says she'll survive, but Frank says she is toast. Phil Black is over in Downing Street. Phil, describe the atmosphere today because when we got up this morning, there was some excitement after the Cabinet meeting but then we had this run of resignations and it was really quite a moment, wasn't it, ahead of that speech?

PHIL BLACK, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: Indeed, Max, that's right. So suddenly with that flurry of resignations, attention all focused on Downing Street again very dramatically. The expectation that Theresa May was going to be walking out that door and then heading over to Parliament to address the House on all of these issues.

And to do so having lost some pretty vital people in her government, notably Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary. So there was a lot of interest and a flurry of media attention certainly as Theresa May walked out the door before driving over and she cut it pretty fine this morning. She left only a few minutes before she was due to appear in the House, but she looked calm.

And that as I know you've been talking about, is what we saw of her as she continued to perform in the House just moments later. Remarkably calm really when you consider the extraordinary pressure that she's under. Calm, assured, without the hint of the usual awkwardness or that nervous wobble in her voice.

So despite all of this pressure, despite all of the questions that are being asked about her and her immediate political future, she seems intent upon driving forward to get this through in some way or at least pushing it through and not walking away and leaving the job half done in any way, Max.

FOSTER: Okay, Phil, this is what the Brexit next steps would be then as we understand it with the UK Cabinet endorsement that she got yesterday. The deal goes to the EU Council Summit. If the Council endorses it, the deal goes to the UK Parliament. If the UK Parliament approves it, the deal goes to the European Parliament and Brexit Day of course is March 29th, 2019, those hurdles.

GREER: That's the meaningful vote that comes for the Parliament. I have to say and I know this sounds absolutely crazy, but I was very proud of the leader of the opposition today and very proud of the Prime Minister. Because for the first time, at least since I've been looking at these two sparring with each other, they had their differences but you felt, there were two people who had the national interest in mind.

Now, I don't agree with Theresa May and I don't always agree with Jeremy Corbyn, but I thought these two people were standing there, and they were thinking about Great Britain and that's what matters at the end of the day.

SCHICK: Just to go back to the hurdles --

FOSTER: Okay, I'm going to play Jeremy Corbyn then come back to you. Let's hear Jeremy Corbyn.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEREMY CORBYN, LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY: The government, Mr. Speaker, is in chaos. Their deal risk leaving the country in an indefinite halfway house without a real say. When even the last Brexit Secretary who is theoretically at least negotiated the deal says, "I cannot support the proposed deal," what faith does that give anyone else in this place or in this country? The government simply cannot put to Parliament this half-baked deal that both the Brexit Secretary and his predecessor have rejected.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHICK: I mean, I think one thing that's been consistent in British politics throughout this whole Brexit debacle over the past few years is that whatever side you're coming at it from, people have put party politics above the national interest and that is indeed, I think what Jeremy Corbyn is doing as well.

Let's not forget that Jeremy Corbyn is actually a Brexiteer. He is very cynical about the EU because he thinks it's a neo-liberal conspiracy.

[07:25:09]

SCHICK: So he is coming at it from an extreme left kind of angle and yet, now he's pretending as though he cannot back this deal because he does not agree with the substance of Theresa May's negotiation. It is all party politics because he wants his party to vote down the deal knowing full well that given what Theresa May's red lines were, and what the red lines of the British government were and also what the Labour red lines are that he would not be in any other position.

So I find it quite cynical that politicians on both sides are kind of playing politics with this and not thinking about the national interest.

GREER: Nina, I'm not a Corbynista, but I have to say, I don't think he was being cynical. I take what you're saying, but I don't think he was. He was positioning - this is going down in hindsight. This is going down in to history. This is history. I think what he was trying to do was say something that was bigger than Labour.

I think she was trying to say something that's bigger than the Conservative Party. We've got both sides of that House now, some of them coming from party positions. They know where this is heading. They know this is going to be put down in history. This is a pivotal moment in the history of this country and they were trying - I think they really were trying --

FOSTER: But it's interesting to see how the party politics is breaking down. I mean, we've seen a lot of this, but this morning Downing Street ahead of speaking to opposition parties about how they can get opposition MPs on side in relation to the deal.

DALE: Theresa May had a meeting with Jeremy Corbyn last night, so this does happen behind the scenes. We are used to seeing them going at it hammering tongues in the Commons, but behind the scenes, there are relations. There's a commonality of interest here to see what can be gotten through.

I mean, we hear a lot about in the United States about bipartisanship between Republicans and Democrats. We have a much more adversarial Parliamentary system here, but there is still a lot of that that goes on. Just a little bit of gossip for you that I picked up, Dominic Raab informed the chief whip immediately after the Cabinet meeting yesterday that he would be announcing his resignation but he waited until this morning to do it, so that wasn't a surprise to Theresa May this morning that he was going to go.

It makes you wonder whether any of the others have done this because we won't get more resignations, Max until she sat down because that really would be rather rude, wouldn't it, to resign while the Prime Minister is --

FOSTER: Penny Mordaunt?

DALE: I think Penny Mordaunt is probably the front runner. She is the International Development Secretary. She is I would say one of the dark horses for the leadership. She's not that well known but she is certainly quite ambitious. She took part in a reality TV show a few years ago called "Splash" where she was in a swimsuit and went from the top diving board. She was taught by the Olympics, Tom Daley, and she did an amazing belly flop on this.

GREER: Oh my goodness.

FOSTER: More trivia for you.

GREER: Well, we don't want a Prime Minister who does belly flops.

FOSTER: Can Theresa May survive as Prime Minister? Have your say on our Facebook page. We'll be back in a moment.

[07:30:00]

FOSTER: Can Theresa May survive as Prime Minister? Well, she's still hot in debate in Parliament since half past ten, it's now? What time is it now? Half past twelve?

GREER: Doom, doom, doom. That's what it is.

FOSTER: After a marathon meeting yesterday, she is going to be exhausted after this process. Mark on Facebook says, "I saw no substance from any of Prime Minister May's honorable colleagues today." Who would replace her is the question he is asking. Let's get a taste of the debate today. It wasn't just about the opposition leader and the Prime Minister today, it was about all of those questions and how layered they were actually today as well.

(HOUSE OF COMMONS COVERAGE)

FOSTER: The suggestion there that would be a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister. And he's a key player in terms of back benches.

GREER: Oh, he threatened her on the floor technically. I mean, that's what he did. He said, "Should I do that or not?" What do you think basically, he is implying. Shows what a thug he is actually.

DALE: Oh come on.

SCHICK: It was a thuggish thing to say, Ian. Yes, it is. Come on.

DALE: It is a reasonable thing to say. GREER: All right, to threaten her on the floor?

DALE: He's not threatening her. He's just saying, we'll persuade people --

FOSTER: And also, he's saying it to her as opposed to just sending a letter --

GREER: Look, I don't mean jumping on top of her, but I mean, he did - listen, hang on --

(CROSSTALK)

FOSTER: ... personality, I am sure there's a good reason ...

GREER: Really? Well, he wears a nice suit.

FOSTER: Nina?

SCHICK: The fundamental point is that the headline is that there is going to be political chaos in the domestic kingdom and we talk about ...

GREER: Domestic kingdom.

SCHICK: In the United Kingdom. We talk about parallels to Margaret Thatcher, the Suez crisis, but I think it's fair to say that this is a crisis that is on monumental proportions unprecedented. I would say the biggest crisis in British political history since the end of the Second World War.

DALE: Really?

SCHICK: And all the while --

DALE: Black Wednesday?

SCHICK: All the while - even bigger than Black Wednesday - all the while, whilst this is playing out, we are 134 days until the United Kingdom has to leave the European Union. Now, that process which has already been triggered by Article 50 stops is if first of all, the United Kingdom, the British government goes to the EU and says ,"We need an extension," and then all 27 member states unanimously have to agree.

So we're hurtling towards what can become a very, very, very chaotic scenario as if this already is not bad enough. So I think the stakes can get even higher than this.

DALE: Nina is right on that, of course, Brexiteers may be shooting themselves in the foot if they got rid of Theresa May because I think the natural consequence - Boris Johnson has actually has raised this that if she goes, it is now say another month or two months before they elect a new leader, they couldn't possibly renegotiate a deal in that time. So therefore, they might have to extend Article 50 and there's a court

case, I think it's on the 29th of November in the European Court of Justice, where they will rule on whether Britain can actually withdraw the Article 50.

[07:35:03]

DALE: I'm pretty sure they will say that we can. If Theresa May said we want to withdraw Article 50, she would be gone the next day. But a new leader, of course, might have to do that. So whereas I'm looking forward to March the 29th as the day that we leave the EU. If she is replaced as leader, I might have to wait a little bit longer.

FOSTER: And this is not just a test of Theresa May, it's a test of the Brexiteers who have made a lot of threats all along and finally, this is the point at which they need to step up.

GREER: And I think this goes back to what Nina is saying about the chaos. I mean, you can walk, you can get five Brexiteers, and they each can tell you why they want to leave. So there is this this sort of existential cauldron that the country is dealing with, too. And Ian is right, if there is a new Prime Minister possibly, the extension happens, then we are in a new deal, and we probably don't need another vote.

But I think the people need to be asked again because I don't think this is was on the table.

FOSTER: We have to organize another referendum though.

SCHICK: To be clear on the EU's position, you know often especially because we're in the United Kingdom and we're looking at this from the kind of domestic angle, the EU 27 will not extend that negotiating period unless it looks like the British government is in utter meltdown. And if they do extend that, it won't be to substantially renegotiate a better deal. I think that is something that really needs to get into the consciousness of the political class here. The EU has made the best deal that it will make and I don't think that if there's a new Prime Minister, if there's an extended negotiating period that it gets any better.

So this is it. It's a take it or leave it deal. So the options are on the table now are take it, leave it or crash out without it.

FOSTER: And she's got a very clear argument there, hasn't she, Theresa May and that's what she's making today to kind of look at the alternative routes.

GREER: And that's what she's saying. Exactly and she is saying - that is what she is saying, and since this is precedent, it has never actually happened before. People can say all kinds of things that they think will happen. We don't know. So she's trying to make a kind of shape in which we can control it a little bit and the EU says that's fine, but we don't know what the hard Brexit means. We don't know what it is and her obligation is to do no harm and that's what she's trying to do. FOSTER: In terms of what the process would be, if somehow this deal

gets rejected is what? You mean, the second referendum and then an election? What are the two options?

DALE: I mean, there is not going to be a second referendum. I mean, people can talk as long as they like about it. There is not going to be one whatever the circumstances. Constitutionally, I suspect if she can't get it through the Commons, there will be a big clamor for a general election.

GREER: Absolutely.

DALE: Now, we have a slightly complicated factor here. We have a fixed term Parliament, so there is not an election due until 2022. So you have to then get 66% of MPs to vote for an election to happen. Now, Labour MPs would generally vote for that, there might be some that might not, Conservative MPs.

If you've got a seat with the majority of less than 10,000, you would be like a turkey voting for Christmas. So whether you can even to 66%, I don't know. Now, let's say you can't get to 66%. What happens then? I mean, look, we're paid good money to sit here and pontificate and give our views --

GREER: Well, you are maybe.

DALE: I think you are, too. Are you not? Anyway, we can talk about that. But I can honestly say that as a political commentator who has been doing this for 20 years, I sometimes nowadays feel like a complete fraud because I don't know what will happen in those circumstances and I can't even think what the options might be.

GREER: I think that's an honest thing to say because there isn't any precedent for this. This has not happened before. And again, I have no time for the Tories and no time for Theresa May but she is doing her best to make a situation that's actually irrational, have some sort of rational shape. They gave her the deal. She said - they said take this or leave it as Nina says. What is she going to say, we're not going to take it? She has got to take something and bring it back to the House. Let the House deal with it and that's what they're doing.

SCHICK: I have to say I agree with Ian that there will not be a second referendum. And I don't think actually that it would be politically expedient to have a second referendum because you can imagine that this country is already very bitterly divided over this. I don't think that the polls show massive change of opinion either way. I think it's straight down the middle.

So if there is another referendum and it's similarly a close result, either for remain or leave, I think the political toxicity is going to harm this country for many, many years to come and I think that whatever happens next, there is no clarity and this kind of divide that we see in society is going to be entrenched.

So ultimately, democracy loses and the political class loses because the trust in the political class wanes even further.

DALE: Max, if we just had a UK domestic audience for this program, your inbox would be full of e-mails, texts, and tweets from people saying ...

[07:40:07]

DALE: ... I voted for the first time in that referendum, I'm 55 years old, but I did vote in that referendum, but if they are going to implement it, I'm never going to vote again. I mean, I get this every day on my radio show. And it is predominantly from people who feel completely letdown by the political system. They say, "Why should I vote if my vote doesn't count. I really thought it would count."

FOSTER: Parliament - this whole process. Let's look at some of the front pages that Theresa May woke up to today. "The Guardian," the headline, "May Brexit plan, a split Cabinet, a split party, and a split nation." "The Daily Mail" said, "I stand to fight," and today's "Daily Express" said, "It's my deal or no Brexit."

It was interesting to see the papers, wasn't it, today? Because "The Daily Mail" for example has not always been supportive but came out and said, actually this is the best we're going to get, and that's just some sympathy for the --

GREER: They have a new editor.

FOSTER: Having to deal with all of the certainty is what --

GREER: They have a new editor and so they have moved a little bit away from the position that they have been in mainly to make sure they don't lose any more readers to be honest with you, so they have moved further away. But we are --

FOSTER: But that's reflecting readership then.

GREER: Well, it is reflecting the readership. I have to agree with - well, they were losing readers. They were worried about that. I know, but they thought they needed to get younger actually to be frank about it.

But, again, we have not been here before. I do agree with Ian when he says that people would feel - some people would feel that they can't ever trust the government again, but there are people who feel I didn't get a chance to say anything. I would like to be able to. This is going to affect my future. There are a lot of young people who are saying, "I didn't have a chance. I need a chance."

FOSTER: But there's also a lot of people saying, we just don't understand anymore. I am a bit bored by it and can't the politicians just sort it out?

GREER: That's true.

SCHICK: Absolutely, and this is why ultimately --

DALE: Can't we all just get along?

SCHICK: Well, ultimately this entire exercise which has really divided the country into two polarized halves, I think the ultimate loser of this is everyone. Not just in the United Kingdom but on the continent as well. Because it was in the continent's interest for the UK to remain a member. The UK was of course one of the biggest contributors to the budget. It's one of the only military powers and in an increasingly kind of fraught geopolitical context, the breakup of the EU and the subsequent divisions in our society which are playing out now means that who actually loses is the political class because the faith and trust in them is further undermined from all angles and democracy itself because people feel whatever side of the divide you're one, people feel that they are not being listened to.

So I think it's a sad occasion for the United Kingdom and the European Union as a whole.

FOSTER: And the European Union, they've got other other issues as well.

GREER: Totally other issues. Italy, Spain.

FOSTER: Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk speaking this morning ahead of the resignations but post the deal getting through the Cabinet.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHEL BARNIER, CHIEF EU BREXIT NEGOTIATOR: What we have agreed at the negotiator's level is fair and balanced. It takes into account the UK's positions, organizes the withdrawal in an orderly fashion and ensures no hard border on the island of Ireland and lays the ground for an ambitious new partnership.

DONALD TUSK, PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL : Of course, I don't share the Prime Minister's enthusiasm about Brexit as such. Since the very beginning, we have had no doubt that Brexit is a lose-lose situation and that our negotiations are only about damage control.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Mashood is on Facebook says "The EU are playing their cards awesomely," and Andrei says, "If the EU made it easy, then every country would bail." There is certainly an awareness about it in Brussel isn't there?

GREER: Simple as that.

DALE: There is a lot to that.

GREER: It's a simple as that.

FOSTER: Sorry, I'm just going to let Ian.

DALE: There is a lot to that. And just it's human nature, isn't it? If they had just said yes, of course you can do this, that and the other, then it would have been an encouragement to countries like it because let's make no mistake, Italy is the next on the list. There is a huge Eurosceptic feeling in Italy and the last poll I saw showed that it was over 60%. If there was a referendum in Italy tomorrow they would vote to leave the European Union.

Now, if that financial crisis - if the banking crisis in Italy develops, well, let's see what would happen. This is where the whole debate was framed wrongly in the referendum, where people kept saying, "Well, the Brexiteers haven't got a vision. We don't know what will happen if we leave." Well, we didn't know what would happen if we stayed either. It wasn't a vote for the status quo because the European Union evolves. It evolves to ever closer integration. We've seen that with the Euro and whatever.

So we didn't - and the European army, we were told, "Oh, no, no all this talk about European army, complete scare story."

[07:45:02]

DALE: What is Angela Merkel do? A couple of days ago supports Emmanuel Macron's call for a full European army. So I mean, the debate can go on about what happened two years ago, but frankly, it doesn't really matter anymore, does it? Because we've got to look forward.

GREER: But also, Italy's was the Lega, which is the governing party in the coalition found out that the Italians are Eurosceptic, but they don't want to leave the Euro so that's kind of their problem and it is a particular problem and Ian is right, Italy is the next hot spot. We weren't ever warned. People were not educated in this country to understand that the laws that were made post-Brexit are coming out of the European Union. There had to actually be an act of Parliament to actually - to okay the vote. The people were told that the government would honor the referendum result and then the chaos started when they found out that they couldn't actually do it, Parliament had to do it. Well, Parliament had to do it, that's why they went to court.

FOSTER: As you can see, reaction here in the UK, the pound is down 1.6% against the dollar. That happened since the Raab resignation. The debates Theresa May continues in Parliament. More than two hours now she's been standing there answering questions and it looks as though like they're going to let it carry on as long as there are questions and people standing trying to put their point across today on such a crucial issue. We'll be back in just a moment.

"Come on Brexiteersm," says Matthew, "You voted for this, why haven't you sorted it out yet."

GREER: We haven't explained it?

FOSTER: Theresa May still in Parliament. We're going to give you an image from that. Ian, talk to us about your observation here. I've got a close-up here. Let's go to the wide, we would be able see - we don't control these pictures, so, obviously it's not happening when I ask for it to happen. But effectively, behind Theresa May where her party sit, there are more empty seats than on the other side. DALE: Yes and that's highly unusual. When the Prime Minister is

speaking, you expect the benches behind her to be full with people waving their order papers urging her on. You can see it now. Look on the right-hand side, you've got the Labour MPs, the opposition MPs. On the left hand side, it's the Conservative MPs.

FOSTER: What does that say?

DALE: It says that she's toast basically.

FOSTER: Today?

DALE: Well, not today, but in the short to medium term --

FOSTER: We're not shorting you.

DALE: She's toast. I mean, if there was any enthusiasm for her deal and for the way she's led her party into that deal, those benches would be rammed full because there are 650 members of Parliament. There are only 454 seats for them, so there are always 200 that can't get in. Where are all these MPs? You can say, well, it's Thursday lunch time, and lots of them have all gone back to their constituencies. They have pre-engagements. Normally, you would cancel those engagements and stay to support the Prime Minister.

FOSTER: Do you agree?

SCHICK: Yes, I think, you know, one thing that we're all united on, on this panel is that we're about to hit the eye of the storm. Choppy waters ahead for British politics. I think either Theresa May goes, the deal is voted down. So what does that mean vis-a-vis the EU? Well, we simply don't know. All we know is that we're 134 days away from leaving date and we may soon have no Prime Minister and maybe even enter new elections.

FOSTER: The MP for Northeast Hampshire Ranil Jayawardena has resigned.

SCHICK: Resigned from what?

DALE: From what?

[07:50:07]

DALE: I mean, I've heard of him, but I wasn't aware he was a minister.

FOSTER: He's a junior minister in the Justice Department for the same reason as the others have gone.

SCHICK: Some more drip drips.

(CROSSTALK)

FOSTER: But this still adds to the narrative and keeps the story fueled over the course of the day. DALE: The government of made up of, I think 95 ministers, about 25 to

30 in the Cabinet, the rest in the junior ranks. So if you have Cabinet ministers resigning, inevitably there will be some junior ministers resigning. I think we're going to have a trickle throughout the day, hopefully more just as I come out on my radio show at seven.

GREER: What happens now? I mean, where are we going to go now? We might have some news tonight that she's - all the letters are in and there's a challenge - there's a challenger. Ian would know this a hundred a times, but to me, is there a dark horse? Is there somebody in the party who could actually stand up? That will somebody on the right, though, wouldn't it? That would be somebody more on the right of the party.

DALE: It's not necessarily all about being on the right. I cannot conceive that the Conservative Party would elect another remainer as leader now. I mean, there are a couple that I might like to see. I mean, Amber Rudd, the Former Home Secretary, I think would make a very good leader.

But in these circumstances, you can't have another remainer as leader of the Conservative Party or indeed Prime Minister. You've got to have someone who genuinely believes in it. We've had a Prime Minister who actually I thought did believe in it in the beginning, I really believed that she did, but I was wrong. I think that's hampered her right through this, but her biggest strength is there is that there is no obvious king or queen into the water.

GREER: That is my question. That is my question.

FOSTER: Ignatius says, "Sooner or later Europe will disintegrate." This is the other narrative which we had a few months ago. We haven't heard it for a while, but actually, this is very bad for Europe and what is seen here often as pomposity from Brussels is misplaced and obviously, there is complete (inaudible) coming from Brussels, but you spent time there.

SCHICK: I think obviously, Brexit is a huge existential blow to the European Union there is no doubt about that, and European Union leaders have been quite clear about that since the very beginning.

Their guiding kind of negotiating tactics have been one, to maintain the integrity of the single market which has been a very successful experiment in the history of the European Union, which by the way, the United Kingdom was instrumental in building, and of course the second one is to firefight because there is a lot of political upset within the European Union, and ultimately what this comes down to is I don't see how anybody who supports kind of liberal democracy, free and open markets can cheer on the demise of the European Union.

Because if the European Union collapses and the Eurozone collapses, there will be huge economic consequences, not only just for the countries of the European Union, but globally and also, what takes the battering is the kind of political ideals that are espoused by the European Union, and those are the ideals of liberal democracy and is that something that's good at a time when global geopolitics is becoming increasingly authoritarian.

GREER: There are two big battles to pick up on what Nina was saying. We are coming from the United States, the President of the United States is a unilateralist. Brexit is unilateralist move and we've got this huge trading block that is multinationals. These are the big clashes that are coming into the worlds of philosophical clash, which way is it going to go?

The United Kingdom, if it's going to be able to go toward unilateralism which is what Trump and Putin and everyone else, Britain has to make a success of this - a huge success of this. And every day, it looks like it's not doing that, as Nina says, it brings chaos to the markets and everything else.

FOSTER: Steven says, "Do you want a deal? Well, Theresa May has one. If you don't like it, then no deal." Simple.

DALE: It is that simple actually.

GREER: Yes, I agree.

FOSTER: Way to go, Steven.

GREER: I agree with you, Steven. You did it.

(CROSSTALK)

FOSTER: I wasn't expecting that at all. Mark saying, "Brexit will clearly damage the UK and EU economies, but it won't be a disaster." And probably long-term there will be - we will be able to recover from anything, it's the short-term pain that people are worried about.

SCHICK: It's the short and medium term that is the question, that is - well, that people are worried about. Nobody knows how this is going to play out in a hundred years' time, or hundred fifty years' time. That's the only economic argument for Brexit that made any sense to me.

That we don't know what will happen in 150 years' time, but I think in the short to medium term, it's clear that this is a damage control exercise. This is why economically ending in the customs union is something perhaps that many businesses in the United Kingdom want because it offers continuity.

I can see how politically however that is a toxic outcome because it really diminishes the United Kingdom.

DALE: The thing is, big business will always argue for the status quo and they will always argue the corporatist case and they love the European Union because they have a bit say in it. If you're a medium or small business, you have absolutely no say. And let's just remember, only 8% of British companies actually export at all.

[07:55:02]

DALE: I'm not somebody who doesn't recognize that if there is no deal that there will be short-term problems. I can't say to you that in ten years' time, I believe the land will be flowing with milk and honey because that's not what I believe. My belief is that we will be better off as a country not just economically and bear in mind that a lot of Brexit voters did not vote based on that economic wellbeing and we'll probably be quite happy.

I mean, if GDP was a half percent less every year, I don't think many people are going to think that was an absolute disaster. So I believe that things will be better, that's why I voted Brexit. I would be a bit of an odd person to have voted if I thought that leaving the European Union would be a bad thing for the country as a whole.

GREER: As someone who was born outside of this country and came to this country for a particular reason, this country has always been looked at as a steady state, reliable partner, the only adult in the room. The one - if the British came in the room, it was all going to be sorted. It was the gateway to Europe. It was the capital of the universal language. It was calm. It was steady. We had a head of state. It was all going to be good.

Now we're all at sea. Of course, we're going to survive, but we have got to do more than that. And that's the issue.

FOSTER: Six resignations today for Theresa May. Will there be more? As Ian said, they're unlikely to come while she's speaking, though we did have a junior level one while she was speaking, but a senior level one would come after she's finished speaking and the debate continues in Parliament behind me. Stay with CNN, we'll bring you any updates as they come through.

Also listen again on my podcast. Look up CNN Talk from Apple podcast.

[08:00:00]