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CNN Live Event/Special
CNNI - Special Coverage - British Lawmakers About to Vote on Changes to Brexit Deal; Parliament Announcing Vote on Corbyn Amendment Results as No; Scottish National Party Amendment Defeated. Aired 1:55- 3p ET
Aired January 29, 2019 - 13:55 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.
HALA GORANI, ANCHOR, CNN: Hello and welcome to our special coverage of a pivotal moment, another one in the Brexit process. I'm Hala Gorani.
RICHARD QUEST, ANCHOR, CNN: I'm Richard Quest. We're coming to you live from outside the Houses of Parliament. What a night. I mean this is one of those nights which is quite extraordinary in British history and British Parliamentary, procedures rarely do we actually go this far and see what we're going to see tonight.
GORANI: Because inside the building, lawmakers are about to start a series of votes and those votes could dramatically change the whole process.
QUEST: There are seven. Yes, seven amendments and they layout different changes, different routes to the deal that Theresa May presented here earlier this month which suffered the heaviest parliamentary defeat in modern histories.
And these are moments -- and by the way, throughout the course of the night, do apologize, at least for myself and I'm pretty sure for us, we will probably be looking down frequently to remind ourselves which amendment we're talking about and the significance of it.
GORANI: So here's the thing, it sounds tremendously procedural, right, and sort of boring parliamentary procedure. But the reality is that some of these proposals if voted through, could really dramatically alter the course of things.
QUEST: Some of them are basically time bombs that could explode in the whole Brexit procedures because the amendments tonight range from ruling out a no deal Brexit, a no deal withdrawal, to delaying Article 50. That's the thing that started the whole thing in the first place two years ago, to replacing the controversial Northern Ireland backstop. So where you are confused, where you are a bit lost in all of this, we are going to be with you every step of the way.
GORANI: And what's interesting is that some of these votes, if they pass, could then open the door to what some diehard Remainers want more than anything which is another referendum, another general election. Now, we're fully aware of which one Theresa May wants to pass.
The government has thrown its weight behind one called the Brady amendment. It requires the Irish backstop to be replaced. To do that, the prime minister says she will seek to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement. And Richard, this is the same agreement she negotiated and presented to Parliament.
QUEST: Oh, not just that. It's just the same agreement to hell or high water that the prime minister has said it's the only deal in town. Here's what she tells the House of Commons earlier.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
THERESA MAY, PRIME MINISTER, UNITED KINGDOM: So the world knows what this House does not want. Today, we need to send an emphatic message about what we do want. I believe that must include honoring the votes of our fellow citizens and completing the democratic process that began when this House voted overwhelmingly to hold the referendum then voted to trigger Article 50 on which the vast majority of us elected on manifestos pledging to see Brexit through.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, let's discuss exactly what we're seeing. Political Analyst Carol Walker is here with us, CNN's Nic Robertson is at 10 Downing Street. Bianca Nobilo is with us and will join us in a bit as well. Bianca, thanks for being here.
So Carol, just in layman's terms, we could see a completely different picture, right, by the end of tonight. In what way, explain that.
CAROL WALKER, POLITICAL ANALYST: This phase tonight will, as you say, determine the course of Brexit. Fascinating that what MPs are voting on is not the Prime Minister's deal. This isn't a vote on the deal. It's not another one of those meaningful votes like we had a couple of weeks ago.
But what you had was you -- remember two weeks ago, Prime Minister's withdrawal deal was comprehensively defeated. The biggest government defeat ever here in the United Kingdom. Since then, she has had to say, "OK, I'm going to have to look at other alternatives." Having for weeks said, "It's my deal or no deal."
She is now saying that she will back this amendment put down by a Senior Conservative MP Graham Brady which says that she will go back to the European Union and try to renegotiate the withdrawal deal. The amendment says she should seek alternative arrangements. She declared today something she ruled out for weeks. She will go back to the E.U. and reopen that withdrawal agreement.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS EDITOR AT LARGE: The Speaker?
HALA GORANI, CNN HOST: Two words tonight, sits back down. There's John Bercow, the Speaker.
QUEST: Just remember this is an amendment. They're voting on now. GORANI: Yes.
JOHN BERCOW, SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT: Division, clear the lobby.
QUEST: And so, we are off to the races. The first amendment A, it's a Labour amendment calling for a twin track approach.
GORANI: Importantly, Richard, as well, it would eliminate the possibility of no deal, this amendment. And it would also call for a much closer cooperation economically with the E.U.
WALKER: Yes. What the Labour amendment says is that the government should seek to be in a Customs Union with the rest of the E.U., something that the Prime Minister has ruled out. And also, the MPs should get a vote on whether to have another referendum. I should just quickly say that this particular amendment, the first of seven, has very little chance of actually being accepted.
QUEST: That was going to be my question to Bianca. Is it likely, is it likely to succeed? And if it doesn't, what happens?
BIANCA NOBILO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's not one of those amendments that has the most traction in the last couple of days that we've been talking about. It's the Cooper amendment that's coming up in the next run of amendments rather than the Labour one. They are the opposition, didn't necessarily have the numbers to pass it. There are amendments people are excited about. Like rejecting no deal in principle, and potentially this Brady amendment. It's interesting, though, when the Speaker called out there to both sides, he does that because if there is very little volume on either side of the chamber, he nods it along. The noise we just heard just shows how impassioned people are feeling about this issue in the chamber, so it warrants a vote. That's what we're seeing now.
GORANI: Let's remind our viewers, so each one of these amendments to the deal or proposals tabled by MPs from both sides, it takes 15 minutes just about to vote, and then we get the result at the back end of that when the -- remind me the terminology of the person who comes and announces the count.
WALKER: That would be the Speaker will announce the result of each vote. Each vote, as we are seeing now, you're watching MPs here that are walking out of the chamber. What they are doing is walking through the different lobbies on either side of the House. The aye lobby and the no lobby. At the end of this, it takes about 15 minutes. All 650 MPs go through and vote, then the Speaker announces the results.
GORANI: He's handed the results by -- remind me.
NOBILO: The Tellers.
GORANI: The Tellers.
GORANI: Nic Robertson is with us in Downing Street, if Nic is with us. When the Prime Minister left Downing Street, I mean, talk about the worries of the world on top of her. Now it's raining and it's a miserable night. My apologies. We're in a tent which is marginally better than being under an umbrella like yourself on Downing Street.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, but I think Theresa May, if we continue with this analogy of a rainy night and there are storms ahead, worse than this rain tonight predicted for the country. But she perhaps will get the political shelter that she's been looking for in this Brady amendment to go back to the European Union. I mean, look, the best she can hope for would be strong support of that Brady amendment which allows her to go to the European Union and say, even though they might not want to hear it and they've said this is an option, that she will seek an all -- she wants to seek an alternative arrangement to the backstop agreement. She may also, if she's having a really wonderful day, see the things threaten her sort of negotiating position weakened. One of those is article 50 could be delayed. There could be a closure to the route for a no-deal Brexit. If those are knocked down and not given support today, Theresa May would be able to go to the European Union with a very clear message, a very strong political umbrella, if you like, over her head. But what the European Union is seeing her right now is something more rather akin to this. She's caught in the rain of both sides with no clarity. That's not where she wants to be, and they will also be following this as closely as we are to see what the weather is happening on her.
QUEST: Ooh.
GORANI: Nic Robertson, stand by. We'll get back to you, of course, very soon. So, there were two headlines in the British press that were published minutes apart. First one, E.U. rules out renegotiation even if Brady passes. Second headline, May will ask E.U. to reopen deal. Those are two opposite things. They can't -- they are mutually exclusive. They are mutually exclusive.
WALKER: I think what the government is betting on is that if, as Nic Robertson was talking about there, the Prime Minister can get backing for this grim Brady amendment which would call for changes to the backstop which is designed to prevent a hard border in North Ireland, at the moment, the withdrawal agreement says that the U.K. would be tied in close which other E.U. evils. She is hoping when the rest of the E.U. is staring in the fact that the U.K. is heading toward a no deal Brexit, the deal they agree has actually been comprehensively defeated, that they will be forced to renegotiate. But there is a big doubt there because, a, she may not get that graham Brady amendment. And, b, even if she does, all it talks about is alternative arrangements.
QUEST: I do wonder, bearing in mind, she did lose by the most astronomical amount and they still didn't say then they would be -- why don't we just wait and pass this. Let's remind us exactly of what Parliament is voting on. It is voting on one of the seven amendments. This one is put forward by the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, for the Labour party. And the thrust of it, I promised you we were going to be reminding ourselves in various -- there you go. The Corbyn Amendment its goal is to allow a no deal Brexit. Essentially, if this passes, it will bring forward options for MPs to vote on various outcomes. It's extremely complicated, this particular amendment. One has to say from what I hear, it stands little chance of getting passed. If it does get passed, well, then, all the others -- some of the others will drift off.
GORANI: Right. And the reason I imagine, Bianca, it has very little chance of passing is it is tabled by the Labour leader, right? So, even if you have Conservative Remainers who, in principle, wouldn't be opposed to the proposals wouldn't be voting for it.
NOBILO: There are other ways and other amendments they can use to express their displeasure of no deal, and other cross-party amendments. The Speaker, as this convention has selected, the leader of the opposition amendment first. The order of the amendments is important. The Conservatives who want to avoid no deal have the option to vote other cross-party amendments.
QUEST: Can I ask you about that? The power of the Speaker to choose the amendments, now, we saw two or three weeks ago -- three or four weeks ago now when he accepted the grieve amendment, the Speaker has huge power in this regard.
WALKER: Huge power. And he has infuriated many Conservative MPs. he is a Conservative MP some would say was. He has to be independent in his role as Speaker. But he has huge power. What he will say is that -- first, he doesn't have to justify which amendments he calls.
QUEST: He doesn't.
WALKER: But he will point to the fact each of those amendments he has selected has got a large number of MPs from various different parties who have signed their support for those amendments.
NOBILO: Because that is something which the Speaker is supposed to take into consideration. He has to be politically impartial. He has to pay attention to the most number of signatures. He's not compelled to select those. The Speaker, as he defined his own role, his job is to present amendments and represent Parliament and give it more power and reduce the power of the executive, he actually used those words. He said the government now has too much power. I want to give Parliament back some power and champion the back benches and represent the widest array of opinion as I can from the MPs. and I think that's what we're seeing. That's why the government has reacted in the way it has. It's being thwarted in its attempts for policy.
GORANI: The chamber is filling back up. This Carole, means those who cast their vote are now streaming back in, Yes?
WALKER: That's right. I think what's interesting about the Labour position is that Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leadership, will know their own motion for the reasons we've been discussing is unlikely to pass. But what is quite interesting is that the Labour leadership has now thrown its backing behind an amendment put down by two of its back benches, maybe Yvette Cooper who chairs a committee, very well- respected MP. in that House of Commons.
[14:10:00] And this would not only say that no deal should be ruled out, but it would say that the government's business should be set aside to allow a bill to pass which will force the Prime Minister -- if there is no deal by the end of February -- to no deal should be ruled out, but it would say that the government's business should be set aside to allow a bill to pass which will force the Prime Minister -- if there is no deal by the end of February -- to seek an extension to article 50, to delay Britain's departure from the European Union.
GORANI: The U.K. is debating with itself. They haven't taken any of these proposals to the E.U.
NOBILO: It is important to note that there isn't actually -- that the time frame of that extension is really significant because the Labour party have expressed an unwillingness to extend for nine months --
QUEST: But all this is really geared to one end, getting them into the transitional period. Getting them over March the 29th in some shape or form with some form of agreement.
WALKER: Yes, because what's worth remembering is there are two stages to the Brexit process as things stand. This is about the withdrawal agreement, the terms on which the U.K. leaves. But it's only if you get that withdrawal agreement that you then get the two-year transition period and the idea is that during that time, the future trade relationship is sorted out, but it crucially gives two years for businesses to make the changes that are necessary to cope with a U.K. outside the E.U., and that is why you've seen a lot of concerns now we're getting perilously close to the date, march 29, default position is the U.K. will leave on that date. And many businesses are very concerned about what will happen to all their trading relationships if the U.K. leaves without a deal.
GORANI: It's 7:11:00 p.m. local time. In a few minutes, we expect the Tellers, as I now remember, to walk up to face the Speaker, John Bercow. He will read out the final results on this Labour amendment tabled by Jeremy Corbyn. But let's remind our viewers, would you say the balance within the House of Commons is -- leans toward avoiding no deal? I mean, you would think a majority of Parliamentarians would support that idea, right?
WALKER: I think that what is likely is that there is a majority in the House overall for avoiding no deal. But the interesting thing that Theresa May said in her statement today was not just that she'd go back to the E.U. and try and renegotiate, but that she would come back in two weeks' time and that MPs would have another chance to put down amendments to whatever she comes down with. So, she was essentially pleading -- Valentine's Day, February the 14th could be romance, could be a massacre --
GORANI: You never know. I'm sorry. Just one thing so I understand. One of these, the Cooper amendment that's calling for, you know, an extension of or compelling the government to ask Brussels to extend the negotiation period if no deal is agreed upon by February 26. If that passes, then this Valentine's Day proposal is dead, right?
WALKER: No, because the Cooper amendment gives the Prime Minister until the end of February to come up with a deal before the -- before its mechanism kicks in.
GORANI: 5000 amendments.
WALKER: The Prime Minister has essentially been pleading with MPs to give her a couple more weeks to try and come up with a deal before all these other arrangements come in.
QUEST: It's also worth pointing out -- it's also worth pointing out that it is perhaps appropriately disgusting weather here. And I raise that not because of the British obsession with this. It looks like the Tellers are coming back. Let's have a listen.
TELLERS: The aye's to the right 296. The no's to the left, 327.
MINISTERS OF PARLIAMENT: Here, here.
SPEAKER: The aye's to the right, 296, the no's to the left, 327. So, the no's have it. The no's have it. Order. We now come to amendment O in the name of the honorable gentleman, Mr. Ian Blackford. The right honorable gentleman would move his amendment O formally.
IAN BLACKFORD, UK, MP: Formally moved.
MINISTERS OF PARLIAMENT: Here.
SPEAKER: The question is the amendment. Amendment to be made. If that is your opinion, say aye.
MINISTERS OF PARLIAMENT: Aye.
SPEAKER: On the contrary, no.
MINISTERS OF PARLIAMENT: No.
SPEAKER: Division, clear the lobby.
[14:15:00] QUEST: So, the first one is gone. The Labour amendment went, pretty much party lines all in all if you look at those sort of numbers. Now we're on to the SNP, Scottish National Party.
Their amendment seeks an extension of the article 50 process and rules out a no-deal Brexit. Bianca, that would strike me as -- I mean, that's fraught with difficulty on all fronts.
NOBILO: Yes. I expect the MP, the Westminster leader, they try and express the fact Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain, 62 percent. They feel they have to represent their national assemblies and get that message across. It would be fraught with difficulties from the Prime Minister. It's not going to get a large amount of support from the governing party, certainly not the D.U.P. or Conservatives. I'd be surprised if it picked up a lot of support elsewhere. There are other ways for MPs to indicate they reject no deal.
QUEST: Why would -- besides the amendments that the Speaker has chosen, has he chosen, Carol Walker, the order in which -- or is that out of a hat? WALKER: Well, there have been a lot of people looking at the order of
the amendments and trying to work out whether it helps the Brady amendment -- the one that the government wants that it lost -- or whether it's unhelpful. By that stage, the House of Parliament could already have voted for an alternative amendment which would rule out a no deal. I think when you look at these, it's difficult to see how the order ultimately makes a huge difference.
But I think important looking at this vote at the moment on the SNP moment, in Scotland, voters voted by more than 62 percent to remain in the U.K. And what the SNP has been arguing strongly is Scotland should not be taken out of the European Union against its wishes. Now, it's not going to succeed. This amendment is not going to succeed. The government is insisting that Scotland is part of the U.K. it is going to leave at the same time as the rest of the U.K., but what is very interesting is we're talking, of course, about the E.U. referendum. Many Scottish nationalists will say, if Scotland is taken out against its will, that strengthens the case for another vote on Scottish independence.
GORANI: We haven't had enough referendums.
Bianca, hold that thought. We need to take a quick break and we'll be back with a lot more as we follow -- continue to follow the voting in the House of Commons. We'll be right back.
[14:20:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Welcome back to our special coverage, another series of votes in the House of Commons in the U.K. tonight that could really dramatically alter the course that Brexit will take. I'm here with Richard Quest.
QUEST: Do you remember that night?
GORANI: Which one?
QUEST: The night that has led us to this.
GORANI: There have been so many, though.
QUEST: The referendum. If you had told me -- if you had told me back on that night in 2016 it would be just about 60 days and we would still not be getting an idea of what the U.K. actually wants by way of a Brexit.
GORANI: I don't know. I'm not as surprised as you are, I don't think, because I mean, imagine two individuals divorcing. It would take them longer than two years in many cases. Here you have a country trying to extricate itself from an embedded close relationship that's gone on for more than four decades. I'm surprised that they can do it in less than two years. Or even get close in less than two years.
QUEST: Erin McLaughlin, we're waiting for the Tellers to come back. I think we have a few minutes. While we wait, I apologize if I have to interrupt you when we see them. What makes -- in Europe tonight, are they agreeing to let Theresa May come back if the Brady bill passes -- amendment passes?
ERIN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT, LONDON BUREAU: Well, I think that is the question, Richard, at the moment here in Brussels. We heard from French President Emmanuel Macron speaking at a summit earlier today, already reiterating the E.U.'s red line in all of this, which is that they are not open to renegotiating that withdrawal agreement, the product of many months of negotiation that was agreed to by Theresa May's government, shaped by Theresa May's government, as well as the E.U. they're not open to renegotiating that. We've heard that time and time again. It's interesting, though, I was on the phone with a senior E.U. official last night who told me that while they're not open to renegotiating the withdrawal agreement, perhaps there is still room for talks, room for further reassurances with respect to that backstop. I pressed on asking him what kind of reassurances he was referring to. He refused to say specifically, saying they are waiting and watching to see what happens tonight.
GORANI: All right. Erin McLaughlin in Brussels. Stand by, Erin, we'll get back to you soon for more European reaction to what we see unfolding here. In the U.K., I'm here with Richard Quest. We continue our special coverage. Currently MPs are voting on the second of the seven amendments to Theresa May's Brexit deal. This one is proposed by the Scottish Nationalist Party and it calls for an extension of the negotiation period of article 50.
QUEST: It also has within it this idea that Scotland will not be dragged out of the E.U. and by the U.K. Let's clear the decks. I firmly believe in a bit of bluntness. This has got no chance of passing.
WALKER: That's right. I don't think this amendment is going to pass. You're not going to get any Conservative rebels that will vote for an SNP amendment. This is important from the view of the Scottish nationalist party. They have to stand up there and put down an amendment that shows what they believe in, which is that should not be a possibility on the table of Britain leaving without a deal. The amendment specifically points out that more than 62 percent of the voters in Scotland opted to remain in the U.K. And what the SNP are saying that the Scottish people should not be taken out of the European Union against their wishes. Interesting, there is a big debate going on within the Scottish Nationalist Party about when they should hold another referendum on independence from Scotland.
GORANI: Does that have any support?
WALKER: At the moment it looks as though the levels of support for independence are pretty much the same as they were the last time there was a vote for Scottish independence, which is around about 42, 43 percent short of what the Scottish Nationalists want.
QUEST: We have two Tellers.
[14:25:00] WALKER: We're not far off. We're not quite there yet. GORANI: As Richard was saying, really very, Bianca, very low
expectations.
NOBILO: No expectations. There are 35 members of the Scottish National Party. It will be supported by Plaid Cymru, the Welsh National Party as well. We're not expecting fireworks on this one.
QUEST: Right.
GORANI: No, there are those amendments that are coming up so our viewers are aware. Where fireworks could indeed take place -- we want to lower expectations but not by that much. We do. Some of these amendments are crucial to -- they won't tonight change the course, but they will pave the way --
QUEST: The next one is -- I don't want to give too much away in anticipation of the enjoyment to come as Parliament works its way through the seven amendments. It is serious stuff because what you have here is a House of Commons that is as divided, if not more so, than the country itself.
WALKER: And I think if you look at the sequence of amendments that we're looking at, it just underlines the political crisis that there is facing this country. This is a Prime Minister who, after two years, has come up with a withdrawal agreement that was comprehensively defeated two weeks ago. The biggest vote in U.K. political history as we've been saying. Her own motion down on the order paper, just basically says, oh, and Parliament has looked up what has happened. She has not got a new plan. Her plan so far is to go back and renegotiate with Brussels. She has not said what she hopes to get out of those negotiations other than something that she can somehow get through Parliament in the next few weekends. If she can get through this next phase of Brexit --
GORANI: Is she trying to essentially get to the end of this -- close to the deadline, or the option is either me or the cliff?
WALKER: The Prime Minister has been lurching from crisis to crisis for the last few weeks, she delayed the key vote on her deal before Christmas in the hope that it would get better. In fact, it could hardly have got worse. Her hope now is to simply keep her party, keep her government together. Keep the show on the road for long enough that she can somehow persuade the European Union to give her something, anything that will enable her to get some form of deal.
QUEST: Why four Tellers? By the way looks like we've got the fourth one just coming in. So, while we wait now, how does it work?
NOBILO: I think, just an important textual point to make about the amendment to rule out no deal, in fact, in the last day --
QUEST: Beg your pardon. If
TELLER: The aye's to the right were 39. The no's to the left were 327. SPEAKER: Thank you. The ayes to the right, 39. The no's to the
left, 327. So, the no's have it. The no's have it. Unlock. Order. We now come to amendment G in the name of the writer, notable gentleman from Beaconsfield, Mr. Dominic Grieve. I'm grateful to the right Hon. gentlemen for moving his amendment formally. The question is amendment G be made? As many that are of that opinion say, aye.
MINISTERS OF PARLIAMENT: Aye.
SPEAKER: On the contrary, no.
MINISTERS OF PARLIAMENT: No.
SPEAKER: Division, clear the lobby.
GORANI: All right. So, so MPs now start the voting on what's known as the Grieve amendment, the third one. It's got cross party support, but this is the fascinating one, isn't it? By the way, we've been joined by Alistair Campbell, who was Press Secretary for the former Prime Minister, good to see you, Alistair. Before we get into the Grieve amendment, which I know you're dying to do. Give us an overview. I can't remember where MPs have been whittling away in such a fashion.
[14:30:00] ALISTAIR CAMPBELL, FORMER PRESS SECRETARY TO TONY BLAIR: No. Well, I think it's not that often we've had government, especially minority government reliant on the D.U.P. to stay in power. What's extraordinary about the fact Theresa May has turned on a sixpence and having told MPs there is no way the deal that has been painstakingly put together over 18 months and two years, it can't be undone. Now she's saying because I'm under pressure, I'm going to go and undo it. I was thinking on the U.K. station, they were saying from Juncker, Jean Claude Juncker, the commission President, he was utterly explicit with it today before
she to the Commons and before she went to a cabinet meeting, to say this is not happening, we're not going to open the withdrawal agreement. I'm afraid we have yes in another fantasy. Even if they vote for it, I don't know how this takes us forward.
GORANI: What happens if the amendments that are calling for an extension to the negotiation period? If they all fail to pass, where does this leave the U.K. then?
CAMPBELL: It leaves in -- it leaves in a bigger mess.
CAROLE WALKER, POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, the default position --
GORANI: But then the default position is --
WALKER: The default position is the U.K. leaves the European Union on March the 29th. Unless something is done to change that, then Britain will leave even if there has not been a deal.
It is interesting that the prime minister, and I was talking to a senior minister earlier. Still believes that despite everything the European Union has been saying, despite everything that senior figures in the Irish government have been saying, they still believe that they can go back and seek changes to that withdrawal agreement.
GORANI: But this is not what the E.U. has said time and time again as recently as an hour ago. They have said we rule out renegotiation. Even if the Brady amendment passes, so --
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: So let's just assume for the purposes of my next question that by the Brady amendment passes and where the prime minister gets on Eurostar and goes to Brussels.
CAMPBELL: She'll fly. But anyway.
QUEST: Cutting costs. Let's say she goes Euro -- she gets to Brussels and says, right. I need you to open this and find a different answer or we are going to no-deal.
CAMPBELL: What I hope would happen in those circumstances is that parliament will find another way to start that and she was clear today that she was saying that there will be other opportunities for parliament to express this view about leaving that deal.
The other point is that what she's trying to do today to go back and renegotiate or if the event Cooper amendment goes through, these things going to have to be extended anyway.
So the only idea that we're going to come crashing out, to use the phrase on March 29th, I think is unlikely because I think there is going to be an extension.
And what until now, this is where maybe she has made some progress. Up to now, my sense with the Europeans was that they would only give an extension in the event of an election or a referendum or a complete change in strategy.
But I think what they see now, they're going to be looking at this tonight and just scratching their heads. Because -- and also, how do they trust her? These leaders, they do have to have some sort of relationship with trust.
And she has absolutely put all her authority onto getting this agreement done, telling them she could get it through parliament. It gets totally rejected. And then she comes back and says, because Jacob Rees-Mogg and a few of them jump up and down and say they're going to crush out a deal. Oh, don't worry I'll go back and do it.
It's a panic measure, it won't work. And I tell you the event Cooper and that speech today, I thought it was a really important speech. She made the point that she's always felt that when you look at Theresa May, she just doesn't think she's going to in her to take the U.K. out without an agreement. And she sort of thinks maybe she does, because she's totally on it and the other strategy parliament her deal or no deal.
GORANI: I just want to remind our viewers what they're watching now. Because this is the third of seven amendments that's being voted on by M.P.s right now. This is the conservative M.P., Dominic Grieve's amendment. It would force the government to come up with alternatives to the current --
CAMPBELL: No. This is about the process.
GORANI: To make time to discuss alternatives.
WALKER: This is the Grieve amendment, hopefully put up there, is to say that the government should give up its control of the parliamentary timetable. Instead, it should be hand into parliamentarians and they should have -- wait for it -- several days to discuss several options as to what should happen next.
GORANI: But before March the 26th. So that gives us a few weeks.
WALKER: Indeed. I think that once again, we are on the third amendment, which I think is unlikely to pass because many M.P.s are very concerned about the precedent of saying that the government should give up the chance to control the parliamentary timetable.
So even if you're a Labour M.P. who has a hope and expectation of getting into power, they would not want that precedent which would say that they may not be able to control what goes on in this place even though effectively -- what we're saying tonight is parliament seizing control of the timetable.
GORANI: I was getting on this. Because what strikes me is the U.K. is doing nothing more right now than --
CAMPBELL: Just go away.
GORANI: Dear lord.
WALKER: Yes, these are stormy political times.
GORANI: We're broadcasting from a hostile environment.
(CROSSTALK)
GORANI: We're going to be OK.
CAMPBELL: Listen, there's no such as bad weather, just bad clothes.
QUEST: Oh.
GORANI: It's fine. Seriously, I'm fine. Let me get this question in. Right now people around the world are seeing the U.K. negotiate with itself. They're not seeing any negotiation --
CAMPBELL: But it's not the U.K., it's the Tory Party.
GORANI: The Tory Party. But also, you have the Labour Party has a position. But the E.U. has been surprisingly solid and unified, hasn't it? And they hold more cards than European Union than the U.K. does in this negotiation.
[14:35:07] CAMPBELL: Totally. No. I think from the whole way through this process and the referendum myth unicorns, lies and fantasies, the negotiations -- have your cake and eat it, they need us more than we need them, is never been true.
Yes, they want to get an agreement. Yes, they would rather this wasn't happening. But I do not believe that they're going to cave on this. And the only way they could cave is to actually to throw Ireland under the bus. And I don't believe they're going to do it.
QUEST: And the U.K. did try right at the beginning, ministers went round Europe trying to create little divisions, trying to get side deals going. But you're right, Alastair. There was -- the 27 stuck together.
And even this week in Davos, it was interesting. Even this week in Davos, whenever I ask a government minister or even a prime minister would you support this, that or the other, they were unscripted, Michel Barnier. Michel Barnier.
GORANI: You could tell there was coordination.
WALKER: I would be interested to ask Alastair who is a big supporter of the campaign which calls itself people's vote campaign for another referendum. The parliamentarians who want another vote, though, decided to pull the chance of having a second referendum --
QUEST: I hate to interrupt because we do want to try and take a quick break so we can have the break before the vote. Back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Well, every picture tells a story. I mean, look at that. It is windswept. The rain is absolutely chucking it down. It is a truly unpleasant British winter's night.
And arguably appropriate for the very serious work that is being debated in the building behind, the votes taking place. They are now working their way through the various amendments.
GORANI: Right. And this is the Dominic Grieve amendment that is being voted on. And let's discuss exactly what we're seeing with our guests. Political analyst Carole Walker is here. Lord Norman Lamont is here as well, a former U.K. chancellor and a supporter of Brexit.
Are you comfortable with the idea of a no-deal if none of these amendments pass tonight that support extending the negotiation period?
NORMAN LAMONT, FORMER U.K. CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER: No deal is not my preferred option. But having listened to all the, I think, rather exaggerated stories, including some planted ones from business.
I am skeptical that we would face all the plagues and all the problems from no-deal. I'm not in favor of no-deal, but I think actually it is practicable, it is doable. But I would prefer to have a deal.
QUEST: So of all the amendments we're going to hear tonight, let's say for example, the Brady amendment to go back to Brussels, the Grieve one which looks like it's going to fell, so let's not waste too much time talking about that. [14:40:03] The Cooper amendment, do you like any of them?
LAMONT: I obviously am very keen on the Brady amendment. And I know people are saying are, but the E.U. have made it perfectly clear, Mr. Juncker has made it perfectly clear. This is not acceptable.
But Europe, has all the time, ben saying, we don't know what Britain wants. We don't know what parliament wants. And if the Brady amendment is carried, you will have a path to a deal that is approvable by the British parliament.
WALKER: Except that it doesn't have a specific plan. It simply says, let's have an alternative plan to the Northern Ireland backstop. It doesn't even specify what that is. So what does Theresa May ask the E.U. to give her?
LAMONT: Well, she has also referred to what is called the Malthouse Compromise which -- I don't know what you're laughing at.
QUEST: Just the name.
WALKER: Just the name, because it sounds like a movie, doesn't it?
LAMONT: Well, it sounds like a thriller, doesn't it really? You asked me what is being proposed, and that would, I think, combined an Irish border that was administered in a soft way electronically exactly along the lines that Mr. Barnier said was practicable as a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. And if it's back to the --
QUEST: Sir, can I just pause you, sir? We need to go to the House.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The ayes to the right 301. The noes to the left, 321.
ALL: Hear, hear.
JOHN BERCOW, SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF COMMONS, UNITED KINGDOM: The ayes to the right 301. The noes to the left, 321. So the noes have it. The noes have it. Unlock. Order.
We now come to amendment B in the name of the right honorable member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Yvette Cooper. Do the amendment formally. Thank you.
The question is amendment B be made. As many of ours that have been saying, aye.
ALL: Aye.
BERCOW: Of the contrary no.
ALL: No. BERCOW: Division. Clear the lobby.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: So, the Yvette Cooper amendment is coming up. This would give parliament control over Brexit. The M.P.s would get a vote on extending Article 50 to the end of the year, provide under certain circumstances.
WALKER: Yes. I think let's just explain to viewers what just happened there, was that a previous amendment which would have effectively said the government should give up control of the parliamentary timetable was rejected, but only by 20 votes. That's closer than I think many people would have expected.
We're now moving to this Yvette Cooper amendment, which would not only say that the government should rule out no-deal, but would say that the government should allow time for a bill which would then bind the government into seeking an extension to Article 50, delaying Britain's departure from the European Union unless the prime minister gets a deal by February the 26th.
GORANI: Do you support the idea of an extension?
LAMONT: No, I absolutely not.
GORANI: Why not?
LAMONT: I think an extension of Article 50 would be followed by one extension from -- it is a device used by a lot of people who are against Brexit, who are against honoring the result of the referendum, and want to have a second referendum. And they feel if they can delay the process, they can go down the paths of a second referendum.
GORANI: What's wrong with three extra -- but what's wrong with three months to come up with a better deal?
LAMONT: May I just -- may I just comment on what was said about the amendment?
GORANI: Yes.
LAMONT: It wouldn't, of course, even if passed tonight, it wouldn't necessarily have the result that is intended, because the legislation would still have to go through parliament and it would have -- there's very little time for that to happen. So even if Yvette Cooper's amendment is carried, I'm not sure that it would actually happen.
QUEST: Are we heading toward a situation where -- I can't give you numbers. But it seems as though there's a majority in the House for a no-deal Brexit. If this gets so late, is there just a straightforward danger that the House votes to extend article -- a version of the grieve amendment comes back?
WALKER: Well, what the prime minister was saying today was that she would come back in two weeks' time and that she would, at that stage, give M.P.s another chance to put down just those sort of amendments.
GORANI: Can we just get back to this question? because as someone who -- I mean, I'm not British and a lot of the questions I get from people abroad and our viewers around the world is, why even if you're a Brexiteer, would you now support the idea of giving your own country a few more months to come up with a better deal?
[14:45:11] LAMONT: Well, we've taken a very long time to get here.
GORANI: Two years.
LAMONT: The legislation actually says where there is European legislation and there is British legislation says March the 29th.
Look, I don't believe the European Union would agree to a significant extension of Article 50. You've got European parliamentary elections in June. Britain seats have been given to Bulgaria, Romania and probably and all.
They've got a division in their parliament of seats. They don't want a British candidate standing on a temporary basis to the European parliament.
The European Union has made it clear, there would only be an extension of Article 50 if there was a specific purpose and a specific solution.
QUEST: What would they -- you raise a valid point. What would they do for those European elections if they do extend -- a mechanism would have to be found to work around that?
LAMONT: But it's impossible. I mean, imagine conservative M.P.s tending for the European Parliament on the basis they'd be there four weeks. I mean, it's ridiculous. The European Union will not agree to that.
GORANI: But that's it. If the Cooper amendment which is now being voted on passes, and you're saying, of course, if legislation has embedded or attached to it and we'd still have to be voted on.
LAMONT: The European Union has to agree --
GORANI: No, I understand that. This is still just a --
QUEST: Well, we don't know that.
GORANI: They wouldn't agree to it because they don't want a no-deal.
LAMONT: I think the European Union -- I think the European Union would agree to it on one condition and that is going to be a second referendum. That they might agree.
WALKER: What is interesting is that the Labour Party has said that -- the Labour leadership has said that it will support this amendment which calls for a delay, but that it would only allow for a delay of three months rather than nine months, and three months would mean that there would be more time to find a deal, but that that would not extend it beyond the time that the European parliament comes back.
QUEST: You said to me on numerous occasions on "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS," that Europe only ever comes to a decision when faced and the chips are down. From your own negotiating in your day, they only ever make a decision right at the end.
So, is this the moment when Theresa May does extract that last whatever -- the key that unlocks the door?
LAMONT: Well, there'd be many occasions in the past where Europe's ultimate offer has turned out to be the penultimate offer. When thing are being agreed at two minutes to midnight. I mean, that is European Union form. I'm not saying that the Brady agreement, if it is carried, as I hope it will be carried, I'm not saying that the European Union is just going to immediately say we agree with this.
But I think they have been saying, what does parliament want? What does parliament want? And I do think the Brady solution as amplified by the prime minister. I don't think it's unreasonable. And I think it would be reasonable to expect the European Union, at least, to look at it.
GORANI: Stand by. We can go to Brussels, I understand. Our Erin McLaughlin is there with more European reaction.
And, Erin, Lord Lamont was saying he doesn't believe the E.U. would agree to an extension even if parliamentarians voted to support a significantly long extension. Would that be three months? Is that significantly long?
LAMONT: No, I think they might agree a temporary short term.
GORANI: Tell us what you're hearing from your sources?
ERIN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I think what still needs to be discussed at the political level here in Brussels. Speaking to an E.U. source just last week who was telling me, in his view, the latest that they would be willing to extend that deadline would be early July because of the parliamentary elections and the complications that presents.
But you hear different opinions on this question. Depending on who you talk to. So I think that it would need to be discussed at the political level first for the E.U. to have a clear line of direction. And of course, it's also worth mentioning that the U.K. would need to request such an extension before the E.U. to even really seriously consider the question that would need to happen.
I think the other thing that's worth mentioning here is something that I talked about with a senior E.U. official last night who was telling me, the worst-case scenario for today in his view, is that at the end of the night, the status quo persists and that nothing passes through the House of Commons. And that the state of political paralysis persists.
The E.U. wants clarity in all of this. They want to see what amendments passed. They want to know specifically what the U.K. wants out of Brexit and then go from there.
QUEST: Erin McLaughlin who is in Brussels. Erin, while we have you for the second, briefly, do you know whether -- I mean, I heard that the E.U. leaders are finding what's happening here tonight mesmerizing. I assume everybody and their brother is watching.
[14:50:23] GORANI: We've lost the connection with Erin. But we still are fully connected to our guests here on our panel at Westminster.
Chris Curtis is joining us. He's a political -- Curtis, I'm sorry, political research manager at YouGov. And Lord Lamont is still with us.
And, Chris, you're here to talk about some of the latest polling YouGov has conducted. Do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote for Brexit? Basically paraphrasing the question. Right to leave, 40 percent, wrong to leave 48 percent, do not know 12 percent. What do these numbers tell us?
CHRIS CURTIS, POLITICAL RESEARCH MANAGER, YOUGOV: Well, I think there's two real questions. That one is a particular question what we ask in hindsight, thinking back to the referendum in 2016. And we see an increasing levels of what we've described as -- so people who voted to leave but actually in hindsight think that that might have been wrong decision.
Not much of it, as those numbers indicate. There are now more people who think it was wrong to leave than right to leave.
GORANI: But not a majority yet.
CURTIS: But not a majority yet. But there's a second interesting question, I think as well, which is where do we go from here? What happens next? It's not just in hindsight while we're wrong. But actually what should we do about it.
And when you ask the puppet questions about that, actually just like in the building behind us, there is not a majority that any particular way forwards. And there's real sort of --
QUEST: When I travel, I am constantly asked the question, if the referendum were held again today or the question will put again today, what would the result be?
CURTIS: So it's difficult to say because we don't know what effect a referendum campaign would have. And by which, I mean, we don't actually know how the public might react to the idea of a referendum being called in the first place.
I think what we -- what our numbers are generally indicating is that remain would start that second referendum campaign as favorites. And there are three reasons for that. Firstly, there's these small levels of (INAUDIBLE) some level of (INAUDIBLE) mainly coming from those who support the Labour Party and voted leave last time around.
The second thing is the enthusiasm gap has shifted. So back in the 2016, referendum campaign, the leave campaign did a very good job of turning out its voters, whereas the remain campaign really struggled with that. We've seen that enthusiasm gap shift. And the third thing which is slightly indelicate to talk about, but I
think we should.
QUEST: Go to.
CURTIS: Is that there has been a slight change in the population as a whole. We saw in the referendum campaign that leave -- older people will slightly more likely to back leave, and younger people would slightly more likely to back remain.
Some of those older leave voters have now left us. And we've also seen some new younger people into the electorate and then more likely --
GORANI: Who are now 18 and old enough to vote, who might have been 16, 17 at the time.
CURTIS: Yes. And then more likely to back remain.
GORANI: Right. So, just reminding, Lord Lamont, by the way, what do you make of those numbers? That fact that it appears, at least according to YouGov's polling, if a referendum were held today, remain would start out the favorite.
LAMONT: Well, I have great respect for YouGov. But, of course, other pillars who have come to a different conclusion. John Curtis, who got the result of the referendum right. One of the very few poses who did. He says his polling demonstrates there's no significant shift at all. That's his opinion. We don't know.
But I think the point about is this. I think both political parties have a lot of people, a lot of M.P.s who do not want a second referendum because they think it would create a lasting legacy of bitterness.
And if you have a second referendum, it narrowly reverses the result of the first. Why not a third referendum or why not a fourth referendum? When politicians said, oh, the second referendum would be final. That's what they said about the first referendum. So it's a question of trust.
QUEST: If the question was -- and I'm realizing, forgive me, in your profession it's very precise. I'm just going to blunder bust through with a steam roller. If a question was something like along the lines of, all right. Now you know what it looks likes, just don't want to do it.
LAMONT: Are you going to say you want to remain in the E.U.? Do you want to accept the government's deal? Or do you want to leave? It would be very difficult to frame the question. And you would actually have to have legislation. You'd have to pass a law. And this would take months. It wouldn't happen in a few minutes.
Curtis: I think actually what we're seeing from our research, we felt this one question where we asked the public how they feel about a second referendum that remain want and we gave seven different words from delighted all the way down to the trade. Half of leave voters told us if there was a second referendum, and it reverse that was out with the first one, they would feel betrayed.
So I think that there is some merits this argument that actually it could add more division to a country that already feels very divided.
[14:55:06] GORANI: Presumably, the remainers would be delighted on that list.
CURTIS: Well, I lost with some words, yes.
LAMONT: Well, I do know were just in conversation. I meet quite a lot of people who come out to and say, I actually voted remain, but I'm so fed up with the way Brussels have behaved in these negations. Now, I vote leave. There is movement in both directions.
QUEST: It does look like the --
GORANI: The tellers indeed. There's three of them. I guess we're waiting for the fourth one. This is the Cooper amendment. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The ayes to the right, 298. The noes to the left, 321.
ALL: Hear, hear.
BERCOW: The ayes to the right, 298. The noes to the left, 321. So the noes have it. The noes have it. Unlock. Order.
We now come to amendment J in the name of the honorable member Rachel Reeves. Rachel Reeves to move the amendment formally.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Formally.
BERCOW: Thank you. The question is amendment j be made (INAUDIBLE) Say aye.
ALL: Aye.
BERCOW: On the contrary no.
ALL: No.
Bercow: Division. Clear the lobby.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: The next amendment. The Yvette Cooper amendment would seek to delay of no-deal. That went down by a greater margin as expected. Against was 321. And it only mustered 298 in favor. GORANI: And that's surprising, isn't it? Because -- I mean, from everything that I -- this was the amendment that perhaps was given the most chance of succeeding.
LAMONT: No, I think the Brady amendment is the one that's given the most chance of success.
QUEST: But this was the most controversial in the sense that if it's -- I mean, the Grieve amendment was likely --
LAMONT: It's the one Europe base wanted and the government knows this right.
QUEST: It was the most no Brexit of them all.
LAMONT: Yes, right.
QUEST: Now we're on to this next complicated amendment.
GORANI: Which is the Rachel Reeves amendment. Requiring the government to ask E.U. to postpone Brexit day without specifying, for how long and to rule out no-deal delaying leaving the E.U. if no deal agreed by February 26th, extending Article 50 by two years.
QUEST: I'm assuming, Lord Lamont, forgive the assumption or the presumption that you're against this amendment?
LAMONT: I think I might. I haven't really given it much consideration. I don't think it's in the frontline of --
QUEST: It's not going to pass.
CURTIS: I mean, it doesn't sound like -- it seems to be a lot of the amendments coming from the Labour Party or Labour Party politicians this evening are struggling and that is obviously a surprise.
A recent vote and we put this question about delaying Article 50 too to public and it was almost completely divided, 40 percent -- around 40 percent were in favor of delaying Brexit. If there's no agreement around 40 percent against them. It was divided almost directly down in --
LAMONT: And don't forget, majority of Labour M.P.s are in constituencies that voted leave. And about a third of them are in constituents who voted leave by a large majority. And they are very nervous.
QUEST: We are heading to the top of the hour, gentlemen. We're heading to the top of the house. That's it for this first hour of our special Brexit coverage.
Stay with us, though.
GORANI: All right. We'll be back after a quick break with more breaking news outside the Houses of Parliament. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
