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CNN International: Officials Report Iran Seizes British-Flagged Tanker. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired July 19, 2019 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:01:39] ZAIN ASHER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello. I'm Zain Asher in New York. We're now continuing breaking news coverage of the tensions in the Persian Gulf. The U.K. is reacting to Iran's Britain seizure the British-flagged tanker in the critical and volatile Strait of Hormuz.

The U.K. says there will be serious consequences if the situation is not resolved quickly. The Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt says, Britain is looking at diplomatic options not military actions. Here's how Iran state-run press TV reported the capture of the Stena Impero, Friday. Take a listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps says that it sees the British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IRGC's official statement the vessels name of Stena Impero. It was seized for violating international neighbor regulations as it was passing the strategic waterway. Press TV will update you as soon as we get more information.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: And, of course, all of this is done exactly come out of the blue. I want to give you the wider context. Just two weeks ago, an Iranian-flagged oil tanker was seized by British commandoes off the coast of Gibraltar. And Tehran said there would be a response and no uncertain terms. The U.S. president commented on all of this a few hours ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So, we're going to be speaking with the U.K., and this only goes to show what I'm saying about Iran. Trouble, nothing but trouble.

And remember this, the agreement, the ridiculous agreement made by President Obama expires in a very short period of time. It was a short-term agreement.

When you're dealing with countries you have to dealing in 50 years and a 100 years. You don't deal in the short-term. That was a ridiculous agreement and it goes to show you, I was right about Iran. And let's see what happens, but I know that it's not an American ship and it's U.K., I guess it could be one or could be two. And we'll be speaking to them there. The new prime minister coming soon and that is a good thing for the U.K.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: All right, CNN Correspondent David Culver is following the story out of London. So, David, I mean just walk us through this. What sort of conversations are being heard right now between the U.S. and the U.K. in terms of formulating a response?

DAVID CULVER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Zain, looking in the clock here, just after midnight in London sort of a new day with yesterday's worries still lingering on. I can tell you at this hour, the COBR meeting is underway and that's essentially national security official here in the U.K. gathering, including the Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt. He's in the midst to that meeting about an hour a half, two hours ago outside of that office he spoke to reporters very briefly and you shared some of the sentiment that he expressed. You know, it was interesting because it was really carefully chosen wording. He said on one hand he wanted to go after diplomatic waves of solving this not military.

He then said there would be serious consequences and he says if Iran continued to provoke this there would be those serious consequences and he says that Iran would be the biggest loser in all of this. But the officials are gathering right now. They're trying to figure out how to go about this.

We know the ambassador from the U.K. is in Tehran, and that he is according to Hunt, meeting with Iranian officials and international partners. It's not clear who those international partners are that are helping to deescalate this situation. It's unlikely. You heard the president of the U.S. right there. Trump saying that Iran is nothing but trouble. Using the president's words. So it's unlikely the U.S. is playing a role in this diplomatic solution.

[19:05:11] We do know that Hunt spoke with Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo probably about two and a half or three hours ago prior to going into these COBR meeting. And he said they tried to get in touch with Iran Minister Zarif, but he said that the minister was his -- to his understanding on board an airplane from New York to Venezuela. And so he was unable to get in touch with him. But there's a lot still up in the air here and then that's what they're trying to figure out and solve at this moment is to how to deescalate, to remedy, to calm this entire situation.

The question is what was put to the foreign secretary given a deadline to Iran, are you going to tell them when they have to return the 23 crew members in that tanker to the U.K.? And that was something that he said had to discuss with his colleagues and other officials in that cobra meeting. Zain.

ASHER: In all of this of course comes at a very difficult time for the U.K., obviously they're in the middle of a leadership race. If Boris Johnson ends up becoming prime minister which is likely when he has foreign secretary he didn't have exactly the best of relationships with Iran.

CULVER: Right. And the difficulty here for international partners is who exactly are they going to be dealing with this going forward to your point on this transition that U.K. is in the midst of right now.

We do know that other leaders are in the U.K. right now. In fact I speak specifically to the chief minister and deputy chief minister from Gibraltar. They're of course discussing the Grace 1, the Iranian ship that is in their custody right now. They've extended it as of Friday to hold on to that vessel for another month.

According to the Twitter feed from Gibraltar's government, they're here and they've had very constructive and positive meetings saying that those are the words from the Gibraltar government via Twitter with regards to Iranian officials. But that was done on Thursday. Twenty-four hours later it seems the result of those constructive and positive meetings wasn't all that hopeful.

ASHER: All right. David Culver live (INAUDIBLE). Thank you so much.

I want to bring in Barbara Starr, standing by live for us at the Pentagon. So Barbara, just walk us through how exactly the U.S. is keeping its ships in the region safe at this point?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, at this point, what we know from the U.S. military is they are overseen if you will through aerial surveillance. The transit of U.S. commercial ships to this region of course is a very sensitive matter because what happens if the Iranians decide at their apparel of course to approach an American cargo tanker and try and seize it.

The U.S. does have of course plenty of firepower on hand to respond very quickly. But again that's not what the Pentagon just like the British that is not what they're looking for. They're looking to deescalate this. They want Iran to make the situation much calmer than it is.

Earlier today we actually had two tankers apparently in Iranian custody. One of them the Iranian said they stopped only for environmental inspection and then they let it go on its way. But this is very unsettling to shipping markets, potentially very unsettling of course to world oil prices cargo shipping that moves through this region. It's something that the U.S. is quite certain about. Zain.

ASHER: And just in terms of another sort of angles the story. Iran is saying that the U.S. didn't have to shoot down any of its drones at all. Obviously, there have been some sort of competing claims here. What does the evidence tell us about that?

STARR: Well, I suppose the evidence is one has to use one's common sense. You know, why would the United States lie about it? The Iranians also said that they thought they -- Iran thought the U.S. shot down one of its own drones seems pretty unlikely from a common sense point of view.

There is no particular evidence debris is at the bottom of the ocean, nobody know if it's even possible to recover the US says and continues to say that the Marines on the deck of the USS Boxer use an electronic warfare weapon to bring that drone down.

ASHER: And some say, Barbara, that one of the reasons why Iran is so brazen in all of this is because it understands that neither the U.S. nor the U.K. really have an appetite in this context for military action. Is that a smart assumption for Iran to make at this point?

STARR: Well, perhaps that there apparel I think many analysts would say the U.S. -- the British will have to speak for themselves I suppose. The Trump administration does and the U.S. military does not have an appetite for conflict with Iran.

The U.S. military, the Pentagon has been publicly adamant that they are not looking for war with Iran.

[19:10:00] What they are looking to do right now is use the presence of the U.S. military in the Middle East to foster deterrent and defense against Iranian provocations and try -- and keep us in the diplomatic arena with diplomatic pressured on Iran to give up these provocations and to come back to some sort of discussion about limiting this nuclear weapons of herds (ph).

ASHER: So, it's all balancing diplomatic efforts with of course deterrence. Barbara Starr, live for us in the Pentagon. Thank you so much.

STARR: Sure.

ASHER: OK. You are watching CNN newsroom. We'll get back to our Breaking News coverage out of the gulf right after this quick break. Don't go away.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ASHER: All right, back to our top story. The U.S. military says it's monitoring the Strait of Hormuz after Iran seized the British-flagged oil tanker there. Some of that file video of that vessel, now British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is warning that Tehran would be the biggest loser if freedom of navigation is restricted in the region.

Notice (ph) says the U.K. is looking at a diplomatic response rather than a military one. U.S. President Donald Trump spoke about the situation that's taking tensions with Iran to a whole new level. I want you to listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: And this only goes to show what I'm saying about Iran. Trouble, nothing but trouble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: U.S. president there saying that Iran is nothing but trouble. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have reached new level over the past few weeks. Just this past Thursday, Mr. Trump said the U.S. had downed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz but Tehran denies that it ever happened.

Let's bring in CNN Political and National Security Analyst David Sanger. He joins us live now from Colorado. So, David, thank you so much for being with us.

So just in terms of formulating a response here, how does the U.S. and the U.K., of course, balance a diplomatic response with also strong deterrence?

DAVID SANGER, CNN POLITICAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, the strongest deterrence they could do in this case would be to have enough forces in the gulf that they'd be able to basically escort every ship. And you saw the United States try to put together a group of like minded nations to go do that. But it requires a lot of coordination, it requires a lot of intelligence. And clearly in this case, they did not have protection around this British ship or at least say didn't have enough.

And that raises a really interesting question because remember they -- the approximate cause of this was that Britain detained a Iranian tanker alleging that it was taken oil to Syria in violation of the United Nations resolutions.

Yesterday, a group of reporters and I was among them saw the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, and he said that this was not going to Syria and was urging a release of the ship. He did -- would not say where the oil was intended to go.

[19:15:07] Clearly, what the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps was looking for in this case was some kind of leverage so that they can do a swap of the ships.

ASHER: Is it fair to say at this point that the U.S.'s policy of maximum pressure on Iran clearly isn't working? And what would be a smarter tactic for the U.S. to try, do you think?

SANGER: Well, it's not working yet. And when you ask Bush's -- I'm very sorry, you ask the Trump administration officials, do they believe that this will work, they say the pressure is just beginning. You did see similar tactics begin in the Bush administration and get accelerated some during the Obama administration when sanctions on Iran began. And that really what led to the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement that was reached in 2015.

So I think one question would be, could you relieve the pressure here by opening some kind of dialog about what a new agreement would look like. This is why many of President Trump's advisers had urged him not to scrap the agreement but rather to build on it and try to expand it. Now, he decided instead you heard in that clip to continue with his line that this was a terrible agreement because it was short ranged and it was.

Some elements of it expire in eight years, the most important ones in 15 years. But the Iranians were abiding by it and we didn't have this kind of tension in the Gulf while the agreement was in effect. And I think when historians look back at it they're going to be ask whether or not the real cause of this was the abandonment of the agreement.

ASHER: So if America gets a fresh start with the election of a new Democrat president in 2020 and a lot of people think that's unlikely but just bear with me if America gets a fresh start with a new president. What's going to be the trickiest aspect of trying to establish a different new better relationship with Iran? Is it to try and formulate some kind of new, more wide-ranging JCPOA agreement? What are your thoughts on that?

SANGER: It's interesting. One of the most recent debates, almost all the candidates were asked the question, if you are elected president would you go back into the nuclear agreement? And almost all of them said that they would. But I suspect that by the time a new president is elected whether it is in the 2020 election or in the 2024 election, enough of the conditions will have change, enough of the tensions will have risen. The situation in Syria will be so different that it will be difficult for any president, Democrat or Republican to go right to the same agreement.

I think they would probably have to negotiate a new one, maybe based on many of the principles of the old. We haven't heard very much from the Trump administration about exactly what they want a new agreement. But it seems if you take a look at some of the statements they've made that those would include no nuclear enrichment. Of course, the 2015 agreement allowed a very low level of enrichment. No missile tests except for defensive weapons and some reduction of support for terrorists. But now you're also going to have some agreement about security in the Gulf.

ASHER: So, in terms of what Iran wants. Their main goal here is the lifting of sanctions. Obviously the sanctions have had--

SANGER: That's right.

ASHER: -- a pretty bad effect on the Iranian economy especially in terms of oil exports. If they don't get that though and the Trump administration doesn't have any appetite to give him that, if they don't get that then wont the escalation between the U.S. and Iran just continue inevitably?

SANGER: So you raised exactly the right question here. And this is come up often today here in the Aspen Security Forum, where a number of administration officials led by the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency were asked exactly that. And the answer that they got from the General Ashley the DIA had was that the Iranians don't want this to spiral out of control, they don't want war any more war in the United States does. And I think that's right.

But what we've seen happen in the Gulf between these incidents involving the drones, the limpet mines that were placed on some other tankers, the seizure of this tanker tells you that there is a gradual escalation going on. And at some point it's very possible that someone is going to miscalculate.

[19:20:00] They're going to believe it's a short war measure and it's going to result in the military response. And I think that's the fear that there could be miscalculation on either side and, you know, we've seen a lot of other conflicts start because a match was lit just like that.

ASHER: So are you saying that the only way out of this is through purely diplomatic channels? And if that is the case, it is very unlikely that the Trump administration is going to give Iran what it wants. I'm just curious how it does get resolved from this point on?

SANGER: Well, it was interesting seeing Foreign Ministers Zarif yesterday. I had covered him a lot during the negotiations in 2015. And what he said to us was as an early first step forward, he said Iran would be interested in accelerating its adoption of some standards with the International Atomic Energy Agency that would allow for intrusive nuclear inspection throughout the country in return for a full lifting of the sanctions that have gone on by the United States in the past year.

That was interesting. I don't think the U.S. is going to entertain that for very long. The sanctions they believe are their only leverage. But it was the first moment toward a sort of cry of let's negotiate about this, let's see what kind of new agreement can be reached.

We heard that the Minister Zarif might meet Senator Rand Paul who wanted to interject themselves as an intermediary. It's not clear whether that ever happened. But what you're seeing are two sides that keep saying to each other we want to negotiate while out in the Gulf they keep escalating. And those too seem attention with each other and at some point someone's going to have to sit down in a formal negotiation if you're going to avoid further escalation.

ASHER: All right. Thank you so much David Sanger in Aspen, Colorado. Appreciate you being on the show.

OK. And as you can see there are plenty more angles to discuss in this issue. We'll get back to our breaking news, the British tanker that Iran seized after a short break.

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ASHER: All right, updating our Breaking News story now. The U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt says he has spoken to his U.S. counterpart after Iran seized a British-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Jeremy Hunt says that he expects to speak with Iran's top diplomat as well.

[19:25:04] Iran said the Stena Impero pictured here had, "Violated international regulations." Hunt is calling the seizure is completely unacceptable and says there will be a considered but robust response. The shipping company confirms that the tanker is no longer under the control of the crew. There are 23 crew members on board from Russia, Latvia and the Philippines.

Earlier, my colleague Becky Anderson spoke to CNN Global Affairs Analyst Susan Glasser about the risks of such high tensions.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SUSAN GLASSER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I think all the unknowns that you've just been going over are good reminder of how conflict can escalate even when that's not the intention of many of the parties. President Trump since May has actually been very strongly that he wants to go in the direction of negotiations with the Iranians rather than escalating the conflict.

That's what's so interesting to me about the timing of this incident with the seizure of this British ship in the sense that this is coming at the exact moment when confidant of President Trump that U.S. Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky has already been given the green light go ahead to have secret meetings with the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif.

In fact that meeting may have actually affirmed while he was in New York (INAUDIBLE). Ands so you have on the one hand one fact and at least of the Iranian starting to talk, perhaps, to the Americans, through an envoy for President Trump at the same time that you had perhaps a different faction moving to take this very aggressive actions against this British ship. So it's really one of those moments where uncertainty that potentially could beat the miscalculation.

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: And you can hear the British foreign secretary trying to take the steam out of this. We've been hearing right across this region where I am and I'm in the UAE. This is our Middle East broadcasting hub -- that, you know, a mistake could be catastrophic at this point.

You've been writing about Trump's racist remarks recently aimed at four congresswomen. And I raise that at this time to bring in his dramatic play for reelection. A lot could change if he's not reelected. The Iranians at one point looked as if they were sitting this one out. But these sanctions clearly biting and action needed. How would a change in the presidency change things as you see it?

GLASSER: You know, it actually it's a very good question because I think that this question of how does the U.S. 2020 presidential election factor in to the calculations made by different countries around the world, including the Iranians, and clearly this is something that has become a major part of everybody's foreign policy.

I think up until recently, the U.S. and the Iranians were possibly looking to wait Trump out that they thought there was a good chance that he would lose reelection next year. But these recent overtures are indications that they might be willing to (INAUDIBLE) suggest that either they've changed their assessment; that is that they think perhaps President Trump is more likely to win reelection, or -- and these are no incompatible, but, or the new U.S. sanctions, what the American officials call the maximum pressure campaign are start to taking enough bite out of the Iranian economy that they're feeling some compatible (ph) to move more quickly to some sort of resolution.

But I think up until this very aggressive act against the British that there was (INAUDIBLE) starting to take hold among American security officials that perhaps there was a greater chance that there had been say six months ago of a new round of theories (ph) negotiations between Iranians and Americans.

This, I think, calls that into question and we still don't know how this crisis will affect it. But 2020 is on everybody's mind these days, of course President Trump most of all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: We'll have more another breaking news coverage after a quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:31:55] ASHER: All right. Let's get you caught up now on our breaking news. Iran has seized a British-flagged tanker in the volatile Strait of Hormuz. A brazen act that sure to further strain already tense relationships between Tehran and the West. The strip -- The ship is the Stena Impero seen here. The British foreign secretary condemn the seizure saying it's essentially that all ships can move safely and freely in the region and the UK convened to the emergency security media on the situation. Here's what the US President had to say about it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: So, we're going to be speaking with the U.K. and this only goes to show what I'm saying about Iran, trouble, nothing but trouble. And remember this, the agreement, the ridiculous agreement made by President Obama expires in a very short period of time. It was a short term agreement. When you're dealing in countries you have to deal in 50 years and a hundred years. You don't deal in the short term. That was a ridiculous agreement.

And it goes to show you I was right about Iran. And let's see what happens, but I know that it's not American ship, it's UK. I guess it could be one, it could be two. And we'll be speaking to them. They have a new Prime Minister coming soon and that's a good thing for the UK.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: The U.S. President has said previously that he wants to talk things out with Iran but according to sources familiar with recent developments, the President is now privately taking a different tone on Iran. CNN's Abby Phillip explains.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: When President Trump spoke to reporters today outside of the White House he struck an even tone about the provocations from Iran in the region in the Straits of Hormuz. He emphasized that the U.S. would be talking to their British counterparts and that the ships that were seized were not Americans, leading some to wonder whether or not all of this was enough to cross his red line. But we're also learning that privately sources say that President Trump is moving away from the idea that he can talk to the Iranian regime and use diplomacy to ease tensions. As sources say that he has become more hawkish in recent days after Iran has batted down his attempts to open the door for diplomacy. But that has worried some of the President's allies who believe it would be a big political mistake for him to engage in military action against Iran.

But we still don't know as of this hour whether the President believes that these latest seizures of the two oil tankers in the region are enough to prompt military action. But it does seem that President Trump is no longer talking or at least not talking as much about talking with Iran as he has in the past and that could very well be because Iran has said they are not interested. Abby Phillip, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: Henry Rome is an Iran Analyst for the Eurasia Group. He joins us live now from Washington. So, Henry one of the issues that all sides are having to deal with is the fact that you have so many different factions in Iran, you've got the political leadership of course. And then you've also got the revolutionary guard and the Ayatollah, I mean just what goes through how much that complicates negotiations?

[19:35:09] HENRY ROME, EURASIA GROUP, IRAN ANALYST: Sure Zain, thanks for having me on today. Now, when you look at the Iranian system certainly from a domestic point of view, you have hard liners, you have moderates, you have reformers, you have those who are more pragmatic and those who are more radical.

But I think on an issue like this that is core to their national security, the way the national security bureaucracy works is they have a supreme national security council that weighs all of these various options, comes to a decision that's blessed by the Ayatollah Khomeini who's in charged ultimately. And they carry it out uniformly.

So, I would say in issues of foreign affairs including talking about taking these tankers. It is really a uniform strategy from the Iranian leadership and not necessarily one faction trying to embarrass another faction.

ASHER: So how was all of this playing out on state TV in Iran?

ROME: Well, so yesterday, we saw a very triumphant video released from the Revolutionary Guards regarding this seizure of the small tanker that had been port at -- that had been owned I should say by a company in the United Arab of Emirates, very triumphalist (ph) video. And today they released additional video shot by the drone at the U.S. said it had shutdown. But, so far the Iranians have denied that their drone had been taking down.

Now, in terms of the latest incidents they've been very excited and just looking at Twitter accounts today in Persian (ph) they're very I think excited I think is the best way to put it, about their military able to starting to push back against the United States.

ASHER: Obviously they're trying to send a clear message to the United States and of course the rest of the world but the goal of Iran here ultimately is the lifting of those sanctions. Mohammad Javad Zarif actually offered enhanced inspections of the country's nuclear program in exchange for lifting of sanctions. I mean what do you make of that offer?

ROME: Sure, well you're right the ultimate goal is to have all of the sanctions removed. But the offer made by Zarif yesterday is I think a nonstarter. It essentially said that we will permanently put into place an inspection regime that we already abide by in exchange for you the U.S. giving up all of your leverage which is to say to remove all of the sanctions.

And Zarif yesterday did not say whether or not this offer would involve Iran returning to compliance with the nuclear deal and of course they have violated two key provisions of the deal so far. So, I think the offer was an attempt to signal some flexibility. But it's not a serious offer on face value.

ASHER: So the fact that the United States might, and I'm emphasizing the word might, might have a changed in presidency towards the end of next year. How is that factoring in to Iran's calculation in terms of how to respond to the US?

ROME: Well, it's a great question and I think the Iranians right now are operating under the assumption that they can hold on given the current economic sanctions for the next year and a half. I think that's a reasonable assumption from an economic point of view.

Now they cannot survive over the next five and a half years, let's say if Trump gets reelected. And so I think whether you have a Democrat who wins in 2020 or whether Trump is reelected, you'll see the Iranians more keen on negotiating because they simply cannot I think from an economic point of view, survive only with the trickle of oil exports that they're at today.

But between now and then, they're trying to make the situation a lot more manageable and that's why you see this pressure in terms of in the Persian Gulf diplomatically with the nuclear program in an effort to increase their own leverage and hopefully extract some more economic concessions.

ASHER: I'm curious to get your take Henry on what you think the options are if there is a sort of Democrat president in 2020 what do you think that new president's options on in terms of handling Iran? I mean obviously during some of the debates a lot of them had said, you know, yes we will reinstate the JCPOA, do you anticipate that when they actually go into the Oval Office they will end up doing that? Or will the situation in the next year and a half be so vastly different, so much more complicated that it would be a tricky thing to do that they would have to sort of find another alternative?

ROME: Well, I think of course that depends on who the Democratic president would be. But I think you're right, that it -- whoever it is he or she will find it very difficult to return to the status quo ante, given all that's transpired since President Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement.

[19:40:00] And I think even if they wanted to go back to the status quo under the nuclear agreement, they need to have a willing partner in Tehran and two things will happen between now and then in Iranian politics. One, you'll have parliamentary elections early next year in which hard-liners are -- we expect to do quite well and you have presidential election in the first half of 2021.

And again, in that election as well, the hard-liners seem to have the early edge. And so, whoever the Democratic president would be or if they are elected would be facing quite a difference Iranian system as well.

ASHER: That's interesting. And so, here you have a situation where both sides the U.S. and Iran are both saying, listen, we don't want any kind of military escalation, but not exactly acting like that. I mean, do you anticipate or do you fear that there will be some kind of miscalculation between either side that could actually lead to war?

ROME: Look, it's very concerning. I would say at this point if I were making a bet, I would say the more likely outcome is you have the status quo for the foreseeable future, high tension, dramatic incidents on either side but no war.

But I think the chance of wars is a close second and there are a lot, history is replete with examples of cases where two countries leaders don't want to go to war but they end up that war regardless, whether it's a miscalculation as you said, an accident, rouge characters within each country trying to provoke a conflict. So I think just because Trump and the supreme leader of Iran insist that they do not want to go to war, yes I think it is certainly a real possibility and something that should concern everyone.

ASHER: Henry Rome, thank you so much, appreciate it.

ROME: Thank you. My pleasure.

ASHER: Let's go live now to Iran. Ramin Mostaghim is a Los Angeles Times reporter in Tehran, he joins us on the phone. So Ramin, what message do you think Iran would like to send to the world right now?

RAMIN MOSTAGHIM, REPORTER, THE LOS ANGELES TIMES (via phone): The message could be that we are ready to confront any consequences and we are ready to have military confrontation at any cost because this is a substantial threat for Iranian authorities and sovereignty, according to their mindset.

So the message is that brinkmanship is a name of a game and anything is possible including a major incident, come what may, that is the message that they say like any brinkmanship policy. But let's come back and give some solace to the viewers in the Persian Gulf area and let them go to bed at this time.

And we can say that when the climax comes then anti climate comes to. And based on our experience in the past 40 years when tension comes at the highest point (INAUDIBLE) then we can expect a bit of diplomacy prevail. And if that wishful thinking comes through it means that from -- a few hours from now when the offices in Iran, I mean, gets out of the bed, they might come for diplomacy and start negotiating, because tension is kept by Iranian authority as a tour and bargain chips for negotiation. It has been so in past 40 years so let's hope that this climax of tension, this escalation will be tasked by Iranian diplomats from early tomorrow morning or day after tomorrow.

ASHER: Sir, I mean here's the thing. My last guest Henry Rome was from the Eurasia Group is actually saying that because the sanctions have squeezed the Iranian economy so tightly, maybe they might be able to handle -- handle themselves financially for the next year or so but they don't have enough money or their economy is not strong enough to survive over the next five years to source of sanctions that the U.S. president has put in place.

So, how does that change the conversation given that there's been a point where their economy will be in such dire straits but they will have to come to the negotiating table.

MOSTAGHIM: Again, my -- they tried to come to the negotiating table because as far as Iranian authorities are concerned they just need sell one million or one and a half million barrels a day and that's enough to run the country from their aspect an that's why they just want to have low tension from now on until Trump is reelected or is out of the White House.

[19:45:12] So, this is the country that they try to play games with the tension at the same time they are flexing their muscles. This is the other side of the coin, flexing their muscles, negotiating, getting some bargain chips and then come flare up, flare down the tension.

This is a sea salt diplomacy because we saw in the past decade. So yes, the tolerate is painful, I mean financial Iran has under the pressure but at the same time Iran is a shorter -- a big war is not possible and that's why they are backing on increase the tension so that they can negotiate with more bargain chips when it comes to diplomacy.

ASHER: Ramin Mostaghim joining us on the phone from Tehran, thank you so much. Much more on the breaking news from the Strait of Hormuz after a quick break.

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ASHER: Going back to our top story. U.S. military says its monitoring the Strait of Hormuz after Iran seized a British-flagged tanker there. You're seeing from video here on that ship right now.

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is warning Tehran that it would be the biggest loser if freedom of navigation is restricted. Let's have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JEREMY HUNT, BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY: I have spoken to Secretary of State Pompeo and the United States early this evening about the situation. I've try to talk to Foreign Minister Zarif of Iran but I understand that he's on the plane so I will speak to him as soon as I can.

This is completely unacceptable. Freedom of navigation must be maintained. We will respond in a way that is considered but robust. And we are absolutely clear that if this situation is not resolve quickly, there will be serious consequences.

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ASHER: And also says that U.K. is looking into a diplomatic response as well. Barbara Starr is standing by for us at the Pentagon. David Culver is live for us from London.

Barbara, I want to start with you. What do we hearing at this hour from the Pentagon?

STARR: Well, what we do know that the U.S. military is conducting the air patrols over the Persian Gulf to keep on eye on U.S. shipping going through those very tense waterways even this evening. These are patrol aircraft that will keep in eye, make sure no Iranians threaten these ships and there is plenty of U.S. firepower quite nearby if the aircraft, armed aircraft if there were to come to that. Of course the U.S., Britain hopes that it does not what they are looking is a deescalation of the situation.

[19:50:03] And the foreign minister who said as you just saw there, you know, a diplomatic solution to all of this. They want the Iranians to deescalate. But earlier today quite tense, two of these ships reported, one still in Iranians hands, the other one eventually let to be gone on its way.

Very important all the time to remember, these are commercial ships. They have commercial mariners aboard, people who are just people with these jobs trying to earn a living, working the ships along these waterways. There are huge, huge economic implications.

These ships, whether their oil or petrochemical takers or just carrying cargo, these are the shipping lanes that move on to other parts of the world on into Asia, Europe, and the United States.

This is such a vital economic waterway, very important to keep it open and the U.S. is trying to make that case to Iran. Iran, of course, looking for relief from those international sanctions.

ASHER: And David, let me bring you in. I mean, was this situation predictable? Do you think, David, given the fact that the British seized an Iranian ship in Gibraltar?

CULVER: I feel like it's so convoluted here on so many levels and the reason I pointed that out saying is, if you go back to just Wednesday of this week, we had in Gibraltar the chief minister and his deputy arrive here in the U.K. and according to his Twitter feed and the government, there's Twitter feed, they had a series of meetings and they had meetings with regards to the greatest one, of course the Iranian tanker that was taken custody by the British on July 4th.

Now, their meetings were with Prime Minister Theresa May, they're with Boris Johnson, they were with Jeremy Hunt, and they were with Iranian officials according to this Twitter feed. And they said those meetings as of Thursday were constructive and positive. 24 hours later, this is where we're at.

And so it's really unclear if they even have a real sense as to what is going on here, to Barbara's point their desire for diplomacy that's been echoed over and over. They'd rather have that according to Hunt, that a military option.

But, you know, that is also something that he kind of danced around in his language. He's carefully choosing the choice of words where he said really it is going to be serious consequences for Iran if they don't come to a solution here.

ASHER: Barbara, let me bring you back in. So, both sides have said that they don't want military action. They've made that very, very clear. They don't want this to lead to war, but there is still that escalation of tensions. How likely is it at this point? Should we fear that there could be some kind of miscalculation by one side or the other that could end up leading to military action, unintended military action?

STARR: Well, this is always exactly the concern that the United States has. The Iranians would have to speak for themselves on this matter. Miscalculation is the exact word as people understand and know that Strait of Hormuz is a very narrow waterway for these massive ships and military ships to make their way through.

They sail in international waters, but Iran's own territorial waters, Iran's coastline is virtually right there. The Iranians are within eyesight as shipping moves through the Strait of Hormuz. And all -- every day the Iranians monitor that shipping and 90 percent of the time it's all safe and everybody moves along and conducts their business on these waterways without a problem, but it is the miscalculation.

If the Iranian boats come out with the Revolutionary Guard on board, if they're running an helicopters or drones come too close to U.S. or British warships and yet they feel they have to fire on any of these Iranian assets to keep themselves safe, the risk of miscalculation is not only quite significant, but it's the timeframe. Everything will escalate. Things will begin happening within minutes. There's not a lot of time to sit and think about it and that's the concern, miscalculation in both time and space.

ASHER: And David, let me go back to you because obviously the U.K. -- it's a tricky time for the U.K. because obviously Theresa May only has a few days in office. There's going to be a new British prime minister as early as next week. How does that transition factor into Iran's calculation in terms of how they handle the British? CULVER: Well, it goes back to that desire for diplomacy, right? So they're trying to find that diplomatic channel and yet even within there's this moment of transition and uncertainty as to who is going to navigate that channel. So you have Jeremy Hunt saying that he was even on the phone with -- today or I should say yesterday at this point because, mind you, this has been going on for several hours now. It's close to 1:00 in the morning and that COBR meeting with the national security officials, including Hunt, is still underway.

[19:55:13] But he said he was on the phone with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and he was talking with him and trying to get some understanding as to how exactly the U.K. and the U.S. might perhaps work together on this. But he also was trying to get in touch with Foreign Minister Zarif out of Iran, says he was on a plane and couldn't get in touch with him. He's going to continue to make that attempt.

He said within Tehran they've got the U.K. ambassador who is trying to deal with Iranian officials. They're trying so many different routes here and it's unlikely if they're really trying to go after the diplomatic route that they'll be able to rely on the U.S. option there. And so, they're going to try to see who exactly can help them in navigating this.

ASHER: Jeremy Hunt said -- one thing that I found slightly contradictory, he said that he didn't want obviously a military action and that he wanted a diplomatic response toward this, but that the response was going to be robust. Explain to me how those two things work together, the fact that the British need a diplomatic response, but they also need to deter Iran at the same time?

CULVER: It was the strange exposition (ph) of wording and I'm glad that you picked up on too, Zain. As I was here and this coming as it was being fed in as soon as he walked into that meeting, and you're right, he kind of goes one route where he's speaking very carefully with regards to Iran and saying that he hopes perhaps diplomacy, conversation, maybe rhetoric can get them through this and not the kind of rhetoric we've seen from the U.S. but perhaps in other alternative.

And on the other side, he's trying to show that they're not afraid of using force if they have to. And he didn't say military force, he said he wants to avoid that. But he said that Iran will be the biggest loser if this is not resolved. So take that for what it is.

ASHER: All right. David Culver, thank you so much. Appreciate that. All right, I'm Zain Asher in New York. Thank you so much for watching CNN's Breaking News coverage. The news continues right here with "AC 360," next up CNN.

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