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CNN Live Event/Special
Satellite Caucuses Under Way Now; Statewide Contests Begin Soon; Crowds Filing Into Iowa Caucus Sites. Aired 7-8p ET
Aired February 03, 2020 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: They have a crowded field to choose from, 11 candidates are in the race, but only a handful are considered competitive in this lead off contest in 2020.
Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are in a close fight tonight. All of them eager to take on President Trump in the general election. We have cameras and correspondents inside key caucus sites across Iowa to bring you the results in real time. When the caucuses start statewide, we'll have our first chance to reveal which candidates are the early leaders based on our entrance poll.
Let's go to Dana Bash first. She's over at the caucus site in Des Moines where they're lining up already, Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. You see the line here. We were watching satellite caucuses, this is the real deal. This is the original caucuses. You see someone registering the people who are on line.
I want to take you actually over here, Jake, we see who you're with, Amy Klobuchar. You're precinct captain.
JAKE: Yes, I'm a precinct captain.
BASH: And so that means you have been trained in trying to get the people who are with you on line to come over to Amy Klobuchar.
JAKE: Correct. Yes. We're working to get to the 15 percent viability threshold, so that Amy is viable and we get some delegates.
BASH: And if you get to that 15 percent threshold, do you have a script to try to lure people who are with candidates who didn't reach that threshold and who are up for grabs in the second round?
JAKE: Yes. I'm just going to talk about how hard Amy has worked on this campaign. She was the only senator to come back during the impeachment trial to do an event. She had like 300 people in Council Bluffs. She's got the record of winning. She won 42 counties in Minnesota that Trump won.
BASH: You definitely got the message. Thank you so much. Thanks.
JAKE: Thank you.
BASH: We'll see you up there. We're going to keep moving here. Down the line we met a couple of these people who just met on line. Tell me your name again.
HEATHER: Heather.
BASH: Heather. And who are you here to caucus for?
HEATHER: Pete.
BASH: How about you?
JUSTINE: I'm Justine. I'm here to caucus for Pete.
EMMA: Emma. I'm here to caucus for Biden.
BASH: OK. So when did you make up your mind?
HEATHER: A year ago.
BASH: Oh, wow.
JUSTINE: Actually this weekend.
BASH: This weekend.
JUSTINE: Yes.
BASH: Who are you deciding between?
JUSTINE: Pete and Bernie.
BASH: So does that mean if, for some reason, Mayor Buttigieg is not viable in the beginning, you'll go for Bernie Sanders?
JUSTINE: Yes, exactly. I will.
EMMA: I decided on Friday.
BASH: Wow. And what led you to your decision?
EMMA: I just want somebody who can beat Donald Trump and I feel that Biden has the experience and the electability to do just that.
BASH: Who's your second choice?
EMMA: Amy Klobuchar.
BASH: And why is that?
EMMA: Because she wins and everything she does is for the people and I just really feel like she works for what the United States stands for.
BASH: And who's your second choice?
JUSTINE: Bernie Sanders.
HEATHER: That's right, you just helped me (inaudible) ...
BASH: Who's your second choice?
HEATHER: Biden.
BASH: Yes.
HEATHER: Yes. He can get the job done, as we all know, but I'm really hoping Pete is viable tonight.
BASH: Have you ever been to a caucus before?
HEATHER: No, I'm actually from California, so my vote matters this year.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
BASH: But you obviously live here now?
HEATHER: Yes. Yes. Yes.
BASH: OK. OK. And what about you?
JUSTINE: I'm from New York, so this is my first time caucusing. And same thing, I'm so excited. I'm a resident over at Children's Hospital here (inaudible) ...
BASH: OK. Thank you so much. We'll see you up there and I want to just turn back around if you can. This is the line people are starting to come in. They are being registered, as you see, because they have to not only say who they're going to caucus for eventually, but more importantly as we've seen with the satellite caucuses, the people who are running this caucus have to know exactly how many people are here in order to get the percentages and to see who is viable at first and then of course at the end to see who wins this caucus, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Dana, Thanks very much. We'll get back to you. Let's go over to John King. They're just getting started little bit less than an hour from now, about 1,600 plus, caucuses begin. What are you going to be looking for?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It's kind of fun, right, here we go. We're at the starting gate and off we go. What are we looking for? Number one, turnout. Turnout, will this come close to the record they achieved back in 2008 or will it be somewhere in between. That's one thing.
If you look now, obviously, we don't have any votes counted yet. These are the candidates. They are in alphabetical order on the board early on. I will break it up.
What else are we looking for? You've seen Amy Klobuchar in some of these satellite caucuses do quite well. That's great, but it doesn't translate into big numbers. Can she translate that actually when you get into the ground here, one of the things her campaign says she's a Democratic senator from Minnesota, that's above Iowa.
Look up here, just looking at - not just up here, but if she's going to have momentum, if there's an Iowa surprise, which sometimes happen, Amy Klobuchar campaign says this is where she's worked the hardest. This is where they know her the best. Take a look up there. That's one, maybe a bit of a subplot, but we'll see how it works out.
Let's blank this out. Let's go back, Wolf. Remember four years ago, essentially a two-candidate race. That's what makes this different. Two-candidate race then. Just to go back in time to 2008, a three- candidate race really then.
[19:05:02]
You see how the vote total split. Just one thing to remember, Sanders had more than 49 percent of the delegates four years ago. Hillary Clinton had 30 percent way back in 2008. She placed third.
More candidates, the vote will be spread out. That's one thing we're going to watch, how does that math work out. But to go back to the 2016 map, the light blue is Bernie Sanders. Does he lock up the progressive vote? Does he win in the areas he won in 2016 or does the split with Elizabeth Warren have more of an impact than his support?
Over here in eastern Iowa, a great place to look for that, I'll just take this away and we look at some of these counties here. Iowa City, college campuses have always been a big source of Bernie Sanders' strength. But he's getting some competition there, Mayor Buttigieg says, I'm the new young fresh face. So how does it play out here?
Johnson County, one of the most progressive if not the most progressive county in Iowa. Certainly among the most, let's watch that, A; who wins, B; what's the split and C; what's the turnout, this will be a sign our young people coming out. We'll see that here. You come out here and you move over here.
Davenport is down here in Scott County, again, very important, it was very close. See progressive versus establishment, if you want to frame the race that way. Let's see how that turns out this year here. Again, a place to watch turnout.
And then as you move over at Ames. Again, another college town here. You want to see how this turns out. It's Story County. You see here where Sanders more ran it up. Most of these - Iowa was really close last time. So in the places where he did run it up and get more delegates, we want to look at that to see if he's doing that again, getting a little gap from his opponents. If you can make a difference.
The key question, does somebody win by a decent margin or is this kind of a cluster? How many tickets out of Iowa? You just saw Dana in Des Moines, that's in Polk County down here. It's the largest part of the state, obviously, the capital, the urban area.
These suburbs though around Des Moines really critical just like the suburbs all across America in 2018 to the big, huge Democratic come back in House races. Elizabeth Warren has spent a lot of time not just in Des Moines but across the state going for suburban women, other suburban voters.
So with so many candidates in the race, Wolf, I just think it's going to be fascinating and it's fun.
BLITZER: It certainly is. Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg, if you're one of them, what are you looking for in the state 99 counties?
KING: Well, number one, Mayor Buttigieg has spent a lot of time in the rural counties, a lot of time. And again, that was a lot of - you'll see if you go back four years, a lot of split in the northern part of the state here and rural counties down here, a lot of Iowa is rural farm country. You see the split back and forth between the two candidates, because it was so hard fought.
You can go back even to the 2008 race and you see, John Edwards. You see a lot more John Edwards in the rural areas down here. That's a place where Pete Buttigieg has spent a lot of time, but also where Joe Biden has tried, especially with older voters to stress the electability message, I can best beat Donald Trump.
Mayor Buttigieg just said, no, you don't need the experience guy, you need a new fresh face to beat Donald Trump. How does that play out, Wolf, that's one of the things we'll look out there. And again, if you're Joe Biden, I want to come back to 2016, just to show if you're Joe Biden and you're trying to get the Democratic establishment, one of the places to look is in the Des Moines area in Polk County.
That's where the state party is headquartered. That's where some of your labor unions are based, political organizations are based. If the establishment is going to rally around Biden, the Democratic establishment, this will be one place in Polk County where we should see some clues about that.
BLITZER: They certainly will. John King's magic wall is going to be very lively in the coming hour.
David Chalian, you're going to be very busy as well. First of all, there are some new rules that are playing tonight.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes. There are two key differences in tonight's Iowa caucuses than any previous Iowa caucuses. One, the rules change.
You're talking about, you know, Wolf, how it works. There are two rounds of voting. So people show up to these caucus sites. They express their initial preference of which candidate they want to back. A calculation is done in the room to determine which candidates are no longer viable.
That means that for the most part, which candidates have not hit a 15 percent threshold and therefore are deemed not viable and no longer competitive. And then it is a moment in time where the candidates that are viable have the chance to try to woo some of those who were supporting candidates who are no longer viable into their corner.
Here's the rules change, with you or with a viable candidate in the first round, you are locked in. You cannot change your vote. That used to not be the case and there are multiple rounds of reallocation. It's just two rounds. The first vote and the final vote, so that's the rules change.
Now, here's another factor, we're getting more information than we've ever gotten before. You remember the bitter battle between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in 2016. One of the things that came out of that battle was a change in the rules and Bernie Sanders fought really hard in getting the rules change to allow the reporting of the popular vote.
So as you're going to say all night long, state delegates, that's how you win the Iowa caucuses. The person who has the highest percentage of state delegates at the end of the night is going to be the winner of the Iowa caucuses. But think like the electoral college in the popular vote in the general election in November, we are now for the first time ever going to see a popular vote total, both for the first round of voting and the final round of voting and we've never seen that before.
Now, it is not the metric that determines the winner. But we are going to learn how many people actually showed up to support these candidates.
[19:10:04]
BLITZER: They're lining up right now at more than 1,600 caucus sites throughout Iowa. We're going to get to some of them right after a quick break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:14:00]
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Hi. I'm Jake Tapper and I'm in the Wells Fargo Arena. Normally, this is where the Wolves play basketball or the Wild play hockey. But right now Des Moines 47, the precinct here, is about to caucus.
This is a neighborhood they expect a lot of younger people. They're not sure how many people are going to turn out tonight anywhere between 350 and 500. Already, caucus goers have started to come in. You can see a lot of them are wearing their team colors, wearing hats for Pete.
Why are you hiding behind over there? Tell me, so why - you're here to caucus for Pete.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm an observer.
TAPPER: You're an observer. You're here to caucus for Pete?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I like Pete.
TAPPER: You like Pete Buttigieg. This is the area right here where the Buttigieg people are gathering. What do you like about him?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think he's very introspective kind of in the same way that Robert Kennedy was in 1968. It's not just a bumper sticker answer and I think we need more of that. We need some more compassion and love in this country, instead of the hatred and division that Trump is known for.
[19:15:01]
TAPPER: OK. So that's one, Buttigieg caucus goer and he's gathering here with the other Buttigieg folks and then you're going to see people over here are for Bernie Sanders. You can see the feeling the burn over there with their signs and their ads. Tell me, are you the whip for Bernie? What does that mean? What are you going to do?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm going to take account and just make sure that all of the rules are followed.
TAPPER: And how do you think he's going to do here tonight? I assume you think he's going to meet the viability threshold of 15 percent. Who do you think is the biggest competitor to Sanders here?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Probably Warren, I would say.
TAPPER: Why do you think that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, I saw some early numbers from the satellite caucus and Biden was our only real competitor and he's not doing very well. So I think Warren and Pete are only real competition here.
TAPPER: All right. Warren and Buttigieg competition for Sanders. And the Warren people, nobody is really filled in over there. Anyway, so more people are filling in and we're going to keep bringing you updates as to when everyone starts to gather, when they do their first vote, when they do their second vote.
But now we're going to go to Cedar Rapids to another caucus location.
MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello there, Jake. This is Miguel Marquez in Cedar Rapids at the Veterans Memorial building in the basement of the Veterans Memorial building here. It is starting to fill up after all of the meetings, all of the events, all of that money spent on ads and all of those handshakes, millions of them. This is where the rubber meets the road. Voters are now checking in here.
I want to give you guys a sense of the room here. So they've said in no uncertain terms, they only want two signs per campaign. So over here you have the Joe Biden area where they will eventually gather. They hope to be viable tonight.
Mike Bloomberg did not campaign here, but one of his supporters came in and put up a little Mike Bloomberg sign right over here, so he has at least an area where they can caucus.
Pete Buttigieg has an area right here where he can caucus, where his supporters can caucus.
And then Amy Klobuchar's folks are there.
The Bernie Sanders' folks are back there. And here is Elizabeth Warren. I mean, she has the most impressive
area. Clearly, a siren call to get people out here.
Talking to voters here, there's a mixture of relief and terror that Iowans must make the right choice tonight they say to beat Donald Trump in November, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Miguel, thanks. We'll get back to you. Brian Todd is over in the western part of Iowa right now in Sioux City. What do you see over there, Brian?
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, this place is really starting to buzz. This is precinct six in Sioux City. People filing in here. This is the only entrance that can come in. They're going to check in right here and register. First time registrations are over here.
And I'm going to take you down here where a lot of the action is going to be. We're going to turn to your right and walk down here with me guys if you can. This is where people are starting to gather to hear the main rules of the evening from the precinct chair, Steve Warnstadt.
He's going to be up here in short time giving people the lay of the land, the rules and everything. Then, they're going to section off and you'll see people gathering in the corners like we do.
I want to talk to one gentleman here. An Elizabeth Warren supporter, George. Hi. This is George Boykin. You're Elizabeth Warren supported, George. You told me you're a veteran caucus goer?
GEORGE BOYKIN, ELIZABETH WARREN SUPPORTER: Yes, I am.
TODD: Why Elizabeth Warren and why now?
BOYKIN: Well, I think Elizabeth Warren represents our country, will represent our country well. She has a good plan, I think, for Medicare and Medicaid. She has a good educational plan. I think that she talked about reforming our judicial and law enforcement system for people and she also talked about bringing this country back together which is a critical importance to me.
TODD: Your wife tipped me off. You just committed to Elizabeth Warren, what, this afternoon.
BOYKIN: Just this afternoon.
TODD: What drove that change so suddenly?
BOYKIN: Well, she's been working hard for a number of years in the Senate and also as a private citizen. She's just not a newcomer to this.
TODD: All right.
BOYKIN: And that's why I like her because she is committed and she can win this thing. I know she can if people get behind her. TODD: All right. George, thank you very much.
BOYKIN: You're welcome.
TODD: Good luck tonight. This is where they're going to gather then going to section off, Wolf. And that's where the action is really going to get interesting tonight and we'll see how the dynamic changes if somebody is not viable, where they're going. We're going to bring that to you live and real time, Wolf.
BLITZER: The caucus is starting in about 40 minutes or so. Brian, thanks very much.
Anderson, lots going on.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: Yes. There certainly is. I'm here with the panel. Van Jones, there's no predicting what's going to happen.
VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: No.
COOPER: There have been polls, there have been talk, there's expectations.
JONES: No.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So don't do it, Van.
JONES: So therefore I'd say it's nuts.
[19:20:01]
I mean, who would have thought that we'd be in situation. We have two flavors of moderates, two flavors of progressive. It's a complete jump ball. But I think if there's anything that's interesting is how many times a Bernie Sanders written off, underestimated, assume that he was going to be easily eclipsed by Elizabeth Warren. We're just kind of waiting for the handoff. It hasn't happened yet.
And he has the labor endorsements, the youth with him. So I think tonight if after all of the obits written for Bernie Sanders, he's standing in the top one or two. A lot of us got a lot of humble pie to eat today. That's what I think.
JESS MNINTOSH, FORMER DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS OUTREACH, HILLARY CLINTON CAMPAIGN: I think tonight we say ground game a lot and I think when we use the words, we forget the ground game means actual people. Like these are actual people who are very excited about their candidates. And as long as we have been talking about electability, we haven't really married that to enthusiasm.
I want a candidate who to be our nominee who has a really enthusiastic group of people behind them and tonight we're going to get to see which one of those folks have that. I think that's what's going to matter in November, how many people can you get out, how many people can you get to knock the doors to actually go from door to door talking to their neighbors. This is one of the best possible examples of who's really got that
ground game going.
COOPER: Alexandra Rojas, you were an aide to Bernie Sanders in 2016.
ALEXANDRA ROJAS, FORMER 2015 BERNIE SANDERS CAMPAIGN ORGANIZER: Yes. And I think that's exactly right. I mean, I think the reality is, is that the majority of America right now wants a political revolution or big structural change. And that means that progressive ideas are popular. It's where the center of energy is within the Democratic Party.
And I think Bernie and Elizabeth Warren's strength and being able to show that it's not just about moderation, but it's also about motivation is really going to come out to bear in the caucuses tonight.
COOPER: Governor, I mean, that is the battle going on in the Democratic Party. I mean, is it revolution? Is it some other way?
TERRY MCAULIFFE, FORMER DNC CHAIRMAN: Well, I tried to make the point. This is not the battle soul of the Democratic Party. This is about beating Donald Trump. This country cannot face four more years of Donald Trump and I think for a lot of the caucus goers tonight, who has that best opportunity to take Trump down. We can't have four more years of Donald Trump.
So my guess is we're going to have two or three folks muddled at the top. It should be a very good night for Bernie. He did very well in 2016 in Iowa. He should do very well in New Hampshire. But I'll remind you, these first four contests is only about 4 percent of the delegates. We've got to get through this process and then we go to march 3rd, 14 states, big part of the delegates will be chosen. A lot of communities of color will be voting that day.
So I don't put too much emphasis on Iowa. I think it's a very white state. It's a very liberal state. I want to see a Democrat who can put the whole coalition together and if Bernie does well tonight, that he's got to reach out to all elements of this party and bring everybody together. This is about beating Donald Trump. Let's be plain and simple.
And this hasn't been an overly vicious primary. You think of 2012 with the Republicans with Mitt Romney and Huckabee. You think of '16 with Trump and Rubio and all of the stuff that went on, this has been a pretty good primary and I think the Democrats have been very well behaved. But keep our eye on the ball, let's not destroy ourselves in this process, but unify.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: But you also have to think of this moment in American political history, which is quite stunning. I mean, we've just gone through two weeks of impeachment in the Senate. The President's been impeached in the House. It's not likely to be convicted in the Senate, but this has gone on and on and on for two weeks now. The President is going to give his State of the Union address tomorrow
night and talk about the state of the nation as being great. And now you have a democratic party that is divided. It is the people asking for revolution against the people saying, you know what, I'd rather be relieved - revolution or relief, I just want a little stability. I just want to calm down and I'm not quite sure that revolution may be the way for me to go right now because I want to beat Donald Trump.
COOPER: I got to get another break in. We're going to come back. We're going to have more with the panelists. We got a long night ahead of us. We're in exciting night. We're watching as more Iowans arrive at caucus sites all across the states. Soon the doors is close. The voting begins and you will see it all happen straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:28:03]
TAPPER: All right. It's Jake Tapper with CNN and I'm standing in the Wells Fargo Arena where Des Moines 47, precinct 47, the caucus goers are here and they're starting to get together. You can see the Sanders people over here. You can see the Buttigieg people over there.
Something else I want to show you. There's a group over there behind the rope line. They're here with the ACLU and they are here to protest the fact that felons in Iowa do not have voting rights. And so there's a gentleman over there who's an ex felon and he's here. He can't participate in the caucus process and the ACLU is trying to make sure that candidates and, of course, their supporters commit to restoring rights to former felons.
But while we're talking about caucus goers, let's go to Dana Bash, who is here somewhere with an undecided Democratic caucus goer. Dana.
BASH: That's right, Jake. I'm here with Ana and John and Caitlin. Thank you. And the three of them, all three of you caucus for Bernie Sanders in 2016. You, Ana, are on the fence.
ANA: I am. I'm between Bernie and Elizabeth Warren.
BASH: I mean, the time is ticking, what it's going to do for you?
ANA: I just need to hear one compelling reason that really gets me over that line.
BASH: Why are you so torn?
ANA: I think that Bernie like has a special place in my heart. I did caucus for him last time. I know a lot about him. He's very consistent. Elizabeth Warren is a woman and I would love a woman president and she's really smart. And she's shown that she could grow in her positions and I feel like I want to make the best choice and I don't yet know what that is.
BASH: OK. And John, you are wearing a Bernie Sanders sticker. You said you think you're caucusing for him, but it was a really recent decision.
[19:30:03]
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. I decided earlier today. I was basically doing some research on line and Bernie and Warren are similar in so many ways. But it really came down to Bernie has been consistent since he was young, since he was younger than I am. So that kind of pushed me over the edge.
But perfectly happy with Warren.
BASH: And what about you, Kaitlyn (ph)?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I decided about a month ago. I've been considering Bernie for a long time. I was kind of going back and forth on electability and decided to vote for my values as opposed to what I think the rest of the country is going to do. So, I'm excited to caucus for Bernie.
BASH: OK, thank you so much. And we're going to find you on afterwards and see -- and watch you as you do this and see which you go and who compels you.
Jake, over to you.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Dana, you need to send John over here. This is the Sanders corner over here. You can see a lot of young voters who are here feeling the Bern. Ready to caucus for their man.
But let's go now to Jason Carroll. He's in North liberty, Iowa -- Jason.
JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Jake, at Liberty High School, where things are just getting underway. They're expecting anywhere between 700 and 800 people. This is the first step right here, this is where folks are coming here. You have to stop here, register, make sure your name is on the list. I've been talking to Jerry.
Jerry, how have things been looking so far tonight?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Great. It's great. Things are going really smoothly. It's a huge crowd. We're getting lots of registrations, changed registrations and so far, so good.
CARROLL: All right. Obviously, what's going to happen? All the big news will take place in this auditorium once people are allowed to file inside and a lot of folks are going to be looking for voters like Michaela Krause (ph. She is undecided, first-time caucuser.
Just give us a sense of who are you thinking about or leaning towards?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm keeping an open mind when I go in there. I'm leaning a bit toward Pete. I'm so sorry.
CARROLL: The reason she's saying that is standing next to her is Suzanne (ph), obviously, a Biden supporter. She's already trying to convince her even before she gets inside, why Biden should be her candidate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So my strategy is to tell people why Biden is my candidate. I love that he has relationships with world leaders. He can use those relationships day one. He has relationships with senators. He can use those relationships day one. He can create change right away and right now is an urgent time for change.
CARROLL: Michaela?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I love her passion.
CARROLL: Did she convince you?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think that is needed right now. She makes a great point.
CARROLL: OK. But as it stands right now, first choice and second choice?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Probably I'm still leaning a little bit toward Pete, but I mean Biden is up there for sure, yes.
CARROLL: All right. Caucusing already taking place. Good effort there, Susan. Good effort.
Caucusing already taking place, Jake, as you can see even taking place before they get inside the auditorium. We'll bring that to you live as soon as it happens.
TAPPER: All right, great. Jason Carroll in North Liberty, Iowa.
I'm sitting here with my boy, Craig. He is a Liz Warren supporter. I'm sitting with the Liz Warren group. I'm going to get out of here before the caucuses start. We're going to squeeze in one more quick break. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Only 23 minutes to go until the Iowa caucuses begin throughout the state.
David Chalian is joining us right now with an early look at what we're calling entrance poll results.
Tell us what we're seeing. These aren't exit polls. These are entrance polls.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: That's exactly right, Wolf. We're talking to voters as they heading into the caucus sites. And I really want to stretch before we show you any numbers. I want to be clear with you and the audience, this is a very early conversation, as early voters are walking in.
It may not be representative of everyone that shows up in the caucuses. These were the first people to show up. They may not look like the total universe of the electorate. But it's is the early information about what the electorate could possible look like tonight, that we want to bring to our viewers.
So, I want to first show you Senate numbers we asked people about when did you make up your mind in this contest? We know Iowa has a history of having late deciders. That is not necessarily the case here.
You see, we ask -- just today, 9 percent of the caucusgoers heading into the polls tell us what it was just today, but look at this number down here, Wolf. Fifty-six percent, more than half of these early arrivers at the caucus sites are telling us they decided more than a month ago, before January.
We also asked, have we ever attended a caucus before? As you know, first time caucusgoers, this is how Barack Obama won the caucuses in 2008. So we wanted to get a gauge. You see here, 35 percent -- again, this will change. These numbers will change throughout the night. This is our very early look.
And among these early arrivers at the caucus sites, 35 percent, about a third, are telling us they're a first-time attendee. This number in 2016 was 34 percent. In 2008 was 57 percent.
As you know, Bernie Sanders strategy is to bring a lot of new people into the process. I'm sure the Sanders camp is going to want to see this number grow throughout the night.
And finally, we checked in with caucusgoers about the ultimate question we've been asking all year long in Iowa and nationally. Are you looking for somebody who agrees with you on the issues or somebody who can beat Donald Trump? It's not even close. Sixty-three percent of these early arrivers that we talked to as they're going into the caucuses tell us they are looking for somebody who can defeat Donald Trump far more than the 35 percent who say they're looking for somebody who they agree with on the issues.
But come back to me throughout the night, because these numbers will shift as we get more and more interviews done as people get to the caucuses.
BLITZER: It's a very early look at these entrance poll results. David, thanks very much.
John King, what do you think, based on what we heard from David?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that last point, to see it by that margin, but that Iowa Democrats who they're for, most of them want to beat Trump. Most of them want to beat Trump, most of them want to beat Trump.
That happens among Democrats nationally, but it's personal in Iowa. Remember the history. Iowa Democrats launched Barack Obama in 2008.
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it was the big surprise. He beat Hillary Clinton and off he went.
Then President Trump flipped. One of the thing we'll look at tonight, Obama carried Iowa twice. Then President Trump carried it last time. One of the things we'll look at tonight, well, how do Democrats perform in this lighter gray counties? Just 31 of them, 99 counties in Iowa total, 31 of them flipped, they voted twice for Obama, and then flipped to Donald Trump. That's hard to do, right?
You think this county supported Democrat two times in a row, why do they flip? Some of them by large margins. So, these ones here, that's one thing we'll look at.
Democrats in these counties who feel it personally, is turnout higher, do they have one candidate? Or are they split among the field, 31 so- called pivot counties. That's the one of things we look at tonight. This is the first of the Democratic contests.
But, Wolf, we're also thinking, is Iowa giving us any clues about -- as we move on toward the general election? It will be an early clue, David Chalian. It's all great right now, because we don't have results yet obviously.
But we can look at counties, we can break it down and see that counties that are in gray, those are the highest educated counties with the highest population, with the college degree in Iowa. Is there a different education between the higher degree counties and those counties where you have more people with a high school graduation? Just something to look at, to see if you have educational split among the Democrats voting tonight.
And if you go -- just to come back, I just want to take you another one here, you can look at -- Iowa doesn't have any huge cities per se. Des Moines is the biggest city. How the Census Bureau describes urban areas, you see them here, and the rest of the state is rural.
Is there a difference between how people are voting in more urban areas with city centers than out in the rural areas? Because of the diversity in Iowa population wise, want to look at that, the diversity of the regions. And then you go back and look at this, if you look, through the 2016 model here and the Democrats here, you see the split. One of the things with the two candidates who were so evenly divided in the chase for delegates statewide wide, there's not a clear pattern when it comes to urban/suburban, urban/rural as you look through that. So, that's another thing we'll look at as we go through it.
I just do want to come back to this, because this is -- Iowa is one of the states I've studied as you go through these counties, Trump flip counties. Let me take that off and come out here. You watch how this happened. This will go out.
This is how it worked out. This is how it worked out in the Democratic primary, again a fairly even split between Clinton and Sanders. But if you look at the presidential election. It's just a stunning flip in a state. And you watch this as you try to look at the general election map. Can the Democrats, after Donald Trump made history, winning election, can they get it back? If you look at this now, this is the 2016 general election. And it is
just stunning. They're mostly in this part of the state. You see a few over here.
Just you go back and realize this was all blue. It was not an either/or. It was all blue then. It was all blue then. In 2016, it went there.
So as the vote total comes in tonight, as you come back in to 2020 here, in these counties again really interested. Democrats take it personally. They want to get their state back in November. Do they turn out in big numbers?
I think that's a giant question tonight. Who does that benefit?
BLITZER: You know, four years ago, it was basically a two-person race in Iowa, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. But there are a lot more people running this time.
KING: So, right now, we have no results yet, which is why you see we don't expect Michael Bloomberg to do anything in Iowa. He's not competing in the first four contests. Tulsi Gabbard also has spent her focus in New Hampshire, not in Iowa.
But right now, these candidates on our board, we listed alphabetically. Tom Steyer, you see Sanders and Warren down low. Andrew Yang got low.
Andrew Yang has been pushing in Iowa. Can we surprise? We'll see, as we go through the results tonight.
But they're alphabetically here right now. But to your point, back to 2016, again, Governor O'Malley was pretty much out of the race then. This was a Clinton/sanders race. We get back to the full state map.
Look at this. It is stunning. That was the big surprise, right? No one thought Bernie Sanders could come that close in Iowa. Two- two-man race. You essentially get 50/50 in the delegate split because it was so fierce and tight.
Go back to this one, people forget, Secretary Clinton was third, just barely. Iowa 2008, also a reminder as we think about tonight, how many tickets out of Iowa? Does somebody win clearly?
Barack Obama used Iowa as a springboard to the nomination and the presidency. He didn't really win by a lot, four points, five points among delegates. I shouldn't say points. This is delegates. Remember, this is about delegates in Iowa.
But this is a pretty close race.
BLITZER: Yes.
KING: And yet, it was the spring board for Iowa, because he got it was a surprise and he got the big ticket out. BLITZER: Well, Iowa is an interesting state. You look at the states
that border Iowa, you get a sense of the nature of this state. Minnesota to the north.
Take a look at this. Wisconsin, Illinois to the east. Missouri to the south, Nebraska, South Dakota to the west. It's a fascinating little state.
KING: This is the 2016 general election map. Think of Iowa, you don't think of it as a giant electoral powerhouse, right? You think about California, which will be blue. Think about Florida, which has been red -- was red in 2016 and seems to be trending red.
But these little states like Iowa and New Hampshire, where we go next in the electoral college could actually matter in a very, very close race. And again, you're right, if you look in the neighborhood this used to be a more blue area.
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This -- again, this was the magic of the Trump win. Pennsylvania is outside the circle. Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa. If you go back to 2012, you see a lot more blue.
This is the challenge for the Democrats. This has been a big message from Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and for Biden as well, but the two Midwestern candidates, the mayor from Indiana, the senator from Minnesota, that said, we know this area. These are our people, this is the Midwest, this is where we've grown up and this is where we've won our races. We'll see what happens. Does that impact Iowans?
When you talk to voters, I was out there this weekend, some of them, yes. Some of them say Klobuchar gets us, she has a better chance here. Mayor Buttigieg gets us. He'll have a better chance here.
Others, think Bernie Sanders, won Michigan in the primary last time, they think he is the blue collar guy. Others say experience for Joe Biden. But if you back through it, Wolf, just watching it, you mentioned Iowa. Iowa is right here. Blue, blue, 2016, a lot of red. We start 2020 tonight to see whether that map changes.
BLITZER: To back up your point about how important Iowa potentially is for a Democratic presidential nominee, seven of the last nine Democratic nominees won Iowa.
KING: Won Iowa. Ted Cruz won Iowa for the Republicans. Donald Trump was the nominee.
BLITZER: Not always.
KING: Mike Huckabee won Iowa once, didn't go out -- Mitt Romney went on to be the nominee. So, it's not always the case when it comes to the Republicans. Santorum/Romney year. But Mike Huckabee once and the election before that.
So, it's not always the case in Republicans. In Democratic politics, Iowa, especially in recent history --
BLITZER: What's more important for Democrats?
KING: Iowa is the springboard.
BLITZER: That's why we're watching it as closely as we are right now.
Only 13 minutes away from the start of the 1,600 caucuses throughout the state of Iowa. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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KING: All right. It's getting crowded at caucus sites where Iowans are casting their votes in the 2020 primary race. The action begins just minutes from now when Iowa Democrats declare their choice to challenge President Trump.
We have cameras and reporters inside multiple locations to cover the voting and the results live. Once the caucuses start, we'll also have our first chance to reveal which candidates are the early leaders based on our entrance poll?
Let's go to David Chalian with a little preview.
David, you're getting more information from our entrance poll.
CHALIAN: Yes, some of those folks you just saw on the caucus site, may be people we talked to on the way in. That's how we conduct this entrance poll.
Before I show you the numbers, Wolf, I just want to stretch, these are early numbers. This will change throughout the night as more and more interviewers are conducted. So, the folks who arrived early, well, they may not be representative of the overall electorate. So, we shouldn't take that we now understand how the night is going to go. We do not.
What we should do, though, is look at these numbers to get a little sense of what's on the minds of voters as they're heading into these caucus sites. We asked about the issues. And I think this confirms what we've seen all year long -- health care, health care, health care. Forty percent of Democratic caucusgoers say healthcare was the biggest, most important issue for them.
And we also asked let's go deeper. Do you support the notion of getting rid of private insurance for a publicly government-run plan? Look at this, 59 percent. Again these are early numbers. They will probably change, but 59 percent of the early interviews we did, they support that Medicare for All option. That is a huge number. Thirty- eight percent oppose the idea of a government-run program.
That -- that may not look how American necessarily feels, but it is certainly looking like how Iowa Democrats who attend these caucuses tonight are thinking about this major of issue going in, and that's probably welcome news to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren who support that policy position, Wolf.
BLITZER: I'm sure it is. David, thanks very much.
Let's check in with Jake and Dana both have caucus sites in Iowa.
Jake, first, to you.
TAPPER: Wolf, so, there are hundred and hundreds of people, it looks as though turnout here at precinct 47 in Des Moines may exceed expectations. And the groups are starting to congeal. Big turn out for the Sanders people there, big turnout for the Warren people just over there next to them. Big turnout for the Buttigieg people to my left over here.
But this is where the rubber meets the road, right? There isn't a big turnout for other candidates and while they haven't convened the caucus yet, it's really not such a strong showing over here for team Klobuchar, for Amy Klobuchar.
I have with me one of Amy Klobuchar's supporters, Jordan.
Jordan, we don't know what's going to happen. Maybe you'll make the threshold, but you've got to be already thinking about maybe she won't.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, I came into that knowing it was a possibility but I wanted to fight the good fight because I -- she's a scrappy fighter and I want to be a scrappy fighter for her, you know.
TAPPER: She would be proud of you. What do you do if after that first vote you don't make the threshold? You're going to go into one of these camps, who do you think is your second choice?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm torn between Warren and Yang. We had a Yang canvasser crash our super bowl party yesterday and made a very persuasive case. And they kind of have my heart strings, too. But they probably won't make viability and I'll switch to Warren.
TAPPER: Warren is a lot more progressive than Klobuchar. Klobuchar is portraying herself as more of a moderate but some people might say that, boy, I don't really what they have in common.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Honestly, I don't think the platforms are that different when it comes to what can get done. I'm willing to shoot for the sky and I know this time around I wanted to vote for a woman, too. So that's voting with my heart.
TAPPER: All right. Well, thank you so much. Good luck tonight. I hope it turns out well for you.
We're going to go now to Dana Bash who is elsewhere in this huge throng of Democratic caucusgoers -- Dana.
BASH: Jake, we are minute as way from this caucus starting. And I have a group of neighbors here who live just across the Des Moines River.
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Many of you have not decided and were so close.
Roxanne, you're still not sure where you're going to go?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm not sure. No. I'm leading toward Biden or Warren. My first choice doesn't look like she's going to be viable.
BASH: Who is that?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Amy Klobuchar.
BASH: Are you even going to try?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've caucused in the past by moving around a lot. This year that's not an option.
BASH: Because you're going to get locked in, in the first round?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Locked in, yeah. If I see she's not viable there's no reason to go there and move.
BASH: You're also not sure where you're going to go?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Correct. Correct. We must be kind of in the same boat because I, too, would support Amy but it does not look like she will be viable. But I could support any of these folks. So --
BASH: How are you going to make your decision? I mean, you're just a couple of minutes away from having to walk some place.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know, isn't that -- yes, that's interesting, isn't it?
BASH: What's going to someway you?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'll probably go with my first instinct.
BASH: Which is?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm going to go with Amy.
BASH: And you're wearing -- you guys are together. What if she's not viable, what are you going to do?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go to places they're going, either Warren or Biden.
BASH: And I know you two are married. You're wearing an Elizabeth Warren sticker, but you just decided last night.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
BASH: Because your husband convinced you?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, he did. I couldn't decide, and so, he made a case for Elizabeth warren and I said sold and here I am. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm supporting Elizabeth Warren, because I think
she's strong on corruption and special interests and I think she'll take that message to Washington, D.C. and think she can stand in a debate with Trump toe to toe.
BASH: Are you going to convince your neighbors here?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Maybe.
BASH: All right. Thank you.
We're going to go over to Tom Foreman now at one of the biggest sites here in Iowa, in Grenell -- Tom.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, this is Grenell College. It's not only the biggest but getting bigger by the moment. They're expecting somewhere around a thousand people here and I think they may very easily surpass this.
And look at this group right here, this is the Bernie group. It's so big that in fact that middle section right now with all those folks in it, that was the Joe Biden section. And they actually move the Joe Biden because they didn't have room for all the Bernie supporters that are showing up here.
So, Senator Sanders is getting a lot of support here. But here is important thing to bear in mind. I've talked to voters from all different camps here, and this has happened when I talk to everyone of them.
Let me ask you very quickly. You're here for Bernie tonight. Is there any candidate in this room you will not support if Senator Sanders is not the nominee?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Regardless of whether or not Bernie is elected or nominated, I'll be voting for the Democratic candidate.
FOREMAN: And you'll show up?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely.
FOREMAN: You all feel that way?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I agree.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Absolutely.
FOREMAN: Well, let's move down the way here, because a short while ago, I spoke to one of the Biden supporters before they got pushed out of here, and they said the same thing. Now, the largest group other than the one we're seeing right now, and this was all supposed to be Biden here. It's been washed away by Sanders support. And you can see out of room again.
The last part down here, this is all the Warren supporters.
And let me ask Colleen here.
Colleen --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
FOREMAN: Same question to you.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Sure.
FOREMAN: If Elizabeth Warren is not the candidate, will you vote for anyone else in this room next fall?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely. Absolutely. I would be happy to join. We have a bigger job to concentrate on. We're unified.
FOREMAN: Wolf, that's the message I'm hearing from every single camp here, even those who may not be viable. They'll vote for the Democrat in this poll and saying it with a lot of energy -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Tom, we're approaching, what, only about 90 seconds until the start of these caucuses.
John King, it's going to get pretty exciting fairly soon.
KING: Right, all those voters talking about if their person, if their candidate, guy or gal doesn't win tonight, or doesn't get nominated in November, they'll be there in November. But it's about to get feisty in all of those rooms as the first contest of the year begins.
You bring out Iowa. It is blank right now. This is our first night. We're going to fill this in. You see the names in alphabetical order here. You got a long list of Democratic candidates. But we think four or five will be a big performance in Iowa.
Some things to look for, and let's use the 2016 map. Again, this is more of a two-way race. Have more colors in the map right here. A couple of things to look for, you just saw in Des Moines there, questions of whether Amy Klobuchar, senator of Minnesota, would be viable.
Well, Minnesota is right here. So, is she viable up here if she's not viable down here in Des Moines, is she getting support closer to from home? That's one thing we look for earlier on. Do we have five candidates vying for the race tonight in Iowa or do you just have four?
If you look at 2016, I'll use a little red over here, progressive in eastern Iowa, Wolf, Bernie Sanders up there four years ago. Can he do it again or is he in a fight and a split with Elizabeth Warren? First preference in those caucuses and then reorganize after that. Here we go.
BLITZER: We certainly are only seconds away from the start of the Iowa caucuses. For the first time, we can reveal the top choices of voters as they went into the caucus sites. Their choices could change once the voting begins. But right now, these are the early leaders based on our entrance poll
in this key race.
