Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Event/Special
Awaiting First Results In Iowa Caucuses; Voting Happening Now At Caucus Sites; Iowa Caucuses Under Way; First Results Soon. Aired 8- 9p ET
Aired February 03, 2020 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: We certainly are only seconds away from the start of the Iowa caucuses.
[20:00:01]
And for the first time, we can reveal the top choices of voters as they went into the caucus sites. Their choices could change once the voting begins.
But right now, these are the early leaders based on our entrance poll in this key race.
All right. Here are the early leaders based on our CNN entrance poll in the Democratic caucuses. Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren. Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren -- they are early leaders. Remember, these results of entrance polls from voters on their way in to the caucuses. They could still change their minds once they get inside. So, this may not reflect the ultimate winner.
David Chalian is breaking down the entrance result for us -- David.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Wolf, one of the things that we're looking at is the sort of ideological makeup of the electorate tonight, the Democratic caucus going electorate. Twenty-six percent identify themselves as very liberal, 40 percent somewhat liberal, 33 percent moderate and only 1 percent as you might imagine some selves conservative.
This is about what the electorate looked light ideological in 2016. Take a look among moderate voters and how they split. As you might suspect, Joe Biden, again, these early entrants poll results, these numbers will change throughout the night, he is at 34 percent among the moderates followed by Buttigieg, Klobuchar and then, of course, Sanders and warren, the more progressive candidates are down at the bottom of this list.
How about the other side of the spectrum? The very liberal voters? How are they spending among the candidates? Well, you will see here that, there you, go very liberal, you saw there for a moment, among very liberal, Sanders got 41 percent of their vote, 26 percent for Warren, 13 percent from, 6 percent for Klobuchar.
So you see among the very liberal which is that 26 percent portion of the electorate, if we just looked at the very liberal, you would see that that is a Sanders category running away right now. Again, caution, these early numbers that people come into the caucuses tell us what they, are these numbers will change throughout the night.
But Biden is winning the moderate credit moment and Sanders is winning that very liberal crowd of the electorate.
BLITZER: Very interesting indeed.
All right. David, thank you very much.
Let's go over to Jeff Zeleny, he is at one of these large caucuses in Des Moines right now.
Set the scene for us where you are, Jeff.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, for the last half hour, even more than, that he would, be I would estimate, a couple hundred people in line waiting to register to vote. Now, they're finally just about through here. We are just a couple of moments before this caucuses want to begin.
So a lot of new voters with stickers of all kinds, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, but one thing is interesting to keep an eye on tonight, Wolf, I found a supporter here for Cory Booker.
Obviously, Cory Booker is not the race anymore, a willing to be wooed tonight?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am. I came here with my intention to caucus for Cory first round and second round and ready to be influenced, whoever can put me into it.
ZELENY: I've been watching you and other candidates and coming up to you on, that will keep an eye on you and see where you go.
But, Wolf, we can tell, if you see the crowd behind me here, they are filling in without question. A lot of Bernie Sanders supporters. He won his precinct four years ago. It is Drake University and a surrounding area here in Des Moines, but a lot of Elizabeth Warren supporters, Pete Buttigieg as well. So this will be one of the signs of strength.
It is a sizable cry but it is about to begin here and everyone is checked in, so, not a super turnout as some expected. So, most officials believe it will be about what it was 12 years ago -- Wolf.
BLITZER: You get a sense, Jeff, of who's generating based on what you can see, really not very scientific but just a sense of who is doing the best so far?
ZELENY: Well, there's no question that there is enthusiasm from Bernie Sanders, as we've seen on college campuses everywhere. One surprise to me, Wolf, not many Andrew Yang people here, and, of course, the Yang supporters for counting on some college support. So we will be looking to them to see if they are not viable, where they go for second choice. But Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, certainly in this Des Moines precinct here, a mix of Drake University and others, so that will be a key test here tonight, Wolf.
BLITZER: And could you see if there is a Biden -- a significant Biden support?
ZELENY: We can, if you come with, me if our photojournalist come with, me there actually was, as Tom Foreman was saying and Grinnell, there was an entire Biden segment. Now, it looks to be reduced to just a very small corner here, I will walk around this little bit more, there is just a little bit of a Biden sign right here.
So certainly not a robust turnout, but we should note this is one precinct on a college campus, certainly not Joe Biden strength as we have seen him all across the, state certainly more older voters are turned into him, so this will be an interesting test between the Warren campaign and the Sanders campaign in the Buttigieg campaign at this precinct alone, Wolf.
[20:05:04]
BLITZER: And it's just beginning now. They're going to be making some statement.
Standby, we're going to get back to you.
Brian Todd is over in different part of the state, in Sioux City for us.
What are you seeing where you are, Brian?
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: OK, Wolf. Well, there was a lot of noise, here a lot of energy a moment ago. There is a bit of a hushed around the room right now because it's about to gavel in. The precinct chair Steve Warnstat (ph) is closing the doors over here. He's about to gave in this precinct, explain the rules to them. He's got to do it from up here and people are going to start a section off.
Now, there are all in one place right now. A lot of Buttigieg supporters here, a lot of independence have showed up so the dynamic is going to be very interesting to watch, where they're going to section off to. I'm going to show you how they're going to do it. As soon as the rules are explained and he's going up to the podium right now, there's going to then tell people, OK, break off and here groups.
Come on down here, Joel, our photojournalist is going to go with me here, and then they're going to break off alphabetical order, Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, they are all going to be over here and then for my alphabetical order, they will circle around the room and you will put people in their groups according to alphabetical order, and then, you know, we go to start the first round of counting. That is where the rubber hits the road, Wolf, that is where you will see maybe some people again break off after that round and go to someone else for the second round, Wolf.
BLITZER: We'll see what's happening.
Let's go to Dana Bash. She is in Des Moines and caucus site as well, Dana?
DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: That's, right.
Let me give you a sense of what's happening right now. If you look behind, you see, then they're all ready to go, he's the people who are caucusing for Joe Biden. They're enthusiastic but frankly a smaller number so far. There is about 25 minutes until were going to get a total sense of the number which means we'll get a sense of how many people need to be in each camp to be viable.
This is also a smaller group, party, that is Andrew Yang's group here. Even smaller, Tom Steyer, there you go, a supporter for Tom Steyer here at Polk County. This is probably so far here on the side of the room the largest area, that is for Elizabeth Warren, you see there are a lot of people here who are ready to caucus for Elizabeth Warren, they are wearing stickers and they're holding the signs.
It doesn't mean that they're actually wedded to that, but it is certainly what they came intending to do. This is the whole Warren area and if you come down here, there is a whole long corridor down there and down at the other side where you saw Jake earlier, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and the rest of the candidates are down there.
People have started to go into their corners into the areas where they want to be to actually formally caucus for their candidates. They don't have to fully be there and remember when we were talking to you earlier and talking to voters earlier who don't know where they're going to go yet. So, there is still a lot of attention here as they prepare to actually go to the very first round and make their commitment, Wolf.
BLITZER: A lot of uncertainty. You have to stress that right now. We don't know what's going to happen.
But, Dana, thanks very much.
Let's go to Grinnell, Iowa, about 60 miles east of Des Moines. It's one of the largest caucus sites.
Tom Foreman is on the scene for us.
We see a very nice crowd behind you, Tom.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and this is a place in this college town for the progressive wing of the party is running very strong tonight. If you look down there, and come this way, at least two thirds of this is all Bernie Sanders support, right up the stairs right, here originally some of that was supposed to be Joe Biden.
This section is all Elizabeth Warren's support, so they are spilling over and taking up more space in every way, and they've got even people up top there filling in at this started very early on. It hasn't stopped. It continues to grow.
By comparison, come over here to this side. This is where you have Pete Buttigieg, with really quite respectable showing here but nothing like what you are seeing over on the other side. Next, this is the Andrew Yang area over here, very strong support there, people very enthusiastic, as you can see, Steyer over here, Gabbard, Bennet, Bloomberg, and here is the Biden group which was originally on the other side.
Let me ask you a question. You had a different position, I got kind of pushed over here by the Bernie people. Disheartened, encouraged, what are you thinking?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're still encouraged. We are going to go for Joe. We're going to do this and we get the support we need.
FOREMAN: You think so?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I'm sure.
FOREMAN: What about you?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, this is the way to go, I don't think Bernie can win a national election.
FOREMAN: Yes, that's a lot of the top that we hear around here. People saying that one of their concerns is that progressive wing over there may not play as well when you get beyond here and then down here, the Klobuchar's section also hoping to come out.
[20:10:01]
What we don't have a whole lot of, though, is right over here, the unconverted group. There are a few, but even the ones I talked to say they think before tonight is over there going to be committed as they look at the turnout here, already it easily 1000 people were what they expected and still perhaps not quite finish growing -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Nice crowd over there in Grinnell, Iowa.
Tom, we'll get back to you.
Jeff Zeleny is back in Des Moines.
Jeff, walk us through the crowd right now. What are we seeing support for various candidates?
ZELENY: Wolf, this is getting underway right now. You can see that when we look at the crowd, here so many Bernie Sanders supporters, as you can see, going through the room here and as we keep walking, down so many Elizabeth Warren supporters as well, there are hundreds and hundreds here.
They are expecting potentially up to 600 people at this caucus was really one of the largest in Des Moines. So, again, Elizabeth Warren supporters, the smaller section of Joe Biden here, and, again this is a college campus, not his core group of people.
But the Pete Buttigieg crowd on this side, just eyeballing it, Wolf, certainly, it seems that if they -- are if not competitive, they may be more than the other side of the senators. So, that is what we are watching here from the supporters. And, of course, second choice, so important.
Every campaign is represented here. It's about to get underway, the candidates, representatives are going to be speaking in and soon they'll be out here on the floor and then once again they will be divided out by those hurdles, those track roles are going to be very interesting here, Wolf, with hundreds of people on the floor, of course, the horse trading begins in the second round -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, Jeff. We'll will get back to you. Stand by.
Anderson, this is the moment of truth for a lot of Democrats in Iowa.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: And a lot of questions still remain.
Here with the panel, David Axelrod, when you see those people, it's fascinating to see it up close to actually see how - how it all works.
DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. Well, this might (ph) -- I'm tense (ph) Iowa caucuses from a distance this time as a reporter, as a participant, which not only brands me as a really old person, but as someone who has experience a lot, and it is an incredible thing to see these people, neighbors, haggling, debating, discussing, we saw earlier the one woman saying I am really for Pete and apologized to the Biden person, Iowans are very nice.
But I want to get back to this discussion that was being had earlier about beating Trump in the most important thing, revolution be the most important, this electability issues are really interesting issue because in my experience, people -- they tend to believe the candidate they like is the most electable candidate. It is not like they say, you know, I really like this person better get a vote for him or her because she is most electable. The Bernie people think he is the most electable because they think he can speak to these disaffected working class voters and excite young people in a way that Hillary Clinton did not.
The Biden people think he can be the guy who can reach into some of these white working class areas that were lost to Democrats in 2016. But we -- you know, this is all theory and I think people rationalize their vote based on who they like, so I'm not sure exactly what that vote, that number means.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: But Biden has made that his campaign.
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: His whole campaign, he's unelectable.
AXELROD: His whole campaign. So, let's talk about Biden for a second. I think this is a big night for Joe Biden. He needs to finish to the top. He doesn't necessarily have to win, but he has to be competitive. If he were to slip third or fourth place, that is a bad scenario for him and that is what Michael Bloomberg is sitting there and watching --
COOPER: You think he needs to be on top two?
AXELROD: I think he does, I think he does.
NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Because he's been saying he's electable, he's been saying --
(CROSSTALK)
AXELROD: He's the putative frontrunner.
HENDERSON: That he is, you, know, that he's a winner.
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: And he's had the money.
VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: And he's also broke. I mean, the thing about it is you would think that a sitting vice president who's been sitting at the top of the polls this long would have something called money --
AXELROD: Yes, which he does not.
JONES: Which he does not and so you can imagine the situation, tonight, if he does really well, you will see money move to him, but if he stalls out, if he's third or fourth tonight, then he is going to have a big, big problem going forward because they're going to run out of cash.
AXELROD: A friend of mine said, a friend of mine said, you know, you're the frontrunner, you're Superman, and if you can't let the railroad train, it doesn't look good. And so things start to unravel for him if he does poorly here and poorly in New Hampshire.
COOPER: Michael Smerconish, we want to hear from you.
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: My thought is that Iowa is always about expectation and the drill is set a low bar, exceed it or claim victory. That is what everyone here will be tonight it will be compounded by, I keep paying close attention every time given David Chalian goes over the rules and the way in which they've changed because I think there is a strong prospect at the end of the night will be multiple winners, or at least several individuals who were all laying claim to victory, especially because of that rule change.
BORGER: And, you know, the Biden people of really trying to inoculate themselves against all these scenarios that you're talking about, Van, which is what if he comes in third or fourth, and they say, well, this is the beginning, not the end.
[20:15:04]
They believe they have a firewall, although they won't use that word, in South Carolina.
They just don't want to be the beginning of the end.
AXELROD: And they want to test the fire wall.
(CROSSTALK)
JESS MCINTOSH, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm sorry. Go ahead.
HENDERSON: I was going to say, the other thing about Iowa is that it is full of surprises, right? We saw that in 2008. We saw that in 2016 with Sanders doing much stronger and better than people thought he would. What will be the surprises tonight?
Does Warren do much better than we thought she would do going into this? She's sort of plateaued. She had a great fall.
Buttigieg sort of plateaued as well. Does he meet expectations, exceed expectations.
I think the same question for Biden, too. He's going to be going into this with his campaign lowering expectations. Can he exceed them?
COOPER: I got to get a break in.
Coming back, we're going to go to these caucuses, we will see the results live. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: More than 1,600 caucuses, they are now underway in Iowa. We are watching them all very, very closely.
David Chalian is joining us once again right now.
You are taking a very close look at the entrance poll information we're getting.
[20:20:00]
CHALIAN : That's right, Wolf, and we asked voters about their age as they were going in, to identify how different age groups, which is a huge dividing line in this Democratic nomination race, how they're splitting up.
First of all, look at the overall electorate here by age. Young people, 17 to 20, nine they're 20 percent of the electorate, about where they were in 2016, maybe a slight uptick.
But look down here, 65 and older, 34 percent. Those folks go to the caucuses that we talk to our 65 and older, that is about six points higher than it was in 2016. This may be a little bit of an older electorate these early numbers that will change.
Let's take a look at how they split. Let's look at those older voters, that 65 and overcrowded. That is a Joe Biden category. He is winning 37 percent of the older crowd.
Pete Buttigieg is 15 points behind him. That is a pretty large margin of victory among these older voters for Biden.
But now, I want to show you the younger voters, cynicism Bernie Sanders territory, and look at this, 51 percent of the 17 to 29 year old are with Bernie Sanders here. That is 35 points higher than the next closest competitor, Pete Buttigieg, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend, getting 16 percent of the young voters.
Bernie Sanders has got such a huge margin here between younger voters that even though they have not yet turned out and greater numbers, that is going to help him tonight as all the votes start coming in.
BLITZER: David, thanks very much.
Seventeen-year-old converting the Iowa caucuses if they are going to be 18 by the time of the November election.
Let's go to Brian Todd, he is out in Sioux City right now for us, in the western part of the state. What do you see over there, Brian?
TODD: Wolf, a crucial moment is at hand here in precinct six. They are passing out the presidential preference cottage.
These are two precincts here, the precinct chair and secretary. They are passing out presidential preference cards. He has given them strict instructions to not right on their cards until they start sectioning off.
We will show is they finish passing at these cards, they're almost done with it so the crucial moment is at hand for the first round, there are about to start sectioning off into the candidates groups and they're going to go by alphabetical order. If you want to pan to your left here.
Joe Biden's group is going to be over here. You see the signs over there. Pete Buttigieg is going to be just to the right and then they're going to go by alphabetical order, depending on the candidate's name, to every section of room.
That's when we're going to get our first defensive who has the most critical support in the first round and that is just going to be an estimate because of course that's when people are going to be -- candidates, volunteers, are going to get a chance to make their pitch, and if your candidate is not viable, to come over to their side.
They're going to give maybe about 15 or 20 minutes for that to happen, and then the crucial second round count will begin. They just finished now passing out these presidential preference cards. Any second now they're going to -- he's going to give the signal and they are going to section off in the various corners of the room. He is signaling his, signaling his precinct secretary there, they are about ready to go.
So we are going to see very soon the critical masses for these candidates in the room here, Wolf.
BLITZER: Welcome back you fairly soon, Brian. Thank you very much.
Let's check back with Dana. She is in Des Moines.
Give us a sense of how big of a crowd of that caucus where you are, how big of a crowd is it?
BASH: It's big. This is where Jake and I are and I will tell you if you come over here, these are, they are called presidential preference cards. These are crucial. These are how people will vote.
You're here, you're a volunteer helping to lead. You have 350 year but we are on hold because you had to stand for more.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's right. Absolutely. We have more people than we were expecting, which is a beautiful problem to have.
BASH: So you've got about 200 extra?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I believe so.
BASH: You sent for 200 extra.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You set to 200 extra. That's what we're waiting for, yes.
BASH: And this was based on past turnout here, that is why they had 350, if you look around here, you can see that just by the naked, I do as it goes down this hall, they are definitely more than 350 people here.
Jake, I know you're somewhere in this crowd, I toss it to you.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Dana, yes, so, right now we are kind of just getting our best guess as to who is going to do well in this first round of this caucus, Des Moines 47, and there are big crowds for Elizabeth Warren. This is the Warren Group right here, past her is the Sanders group. That's big, past that one is the Buttigieg group. That's big.
There are clearly a number of groups that are not going to meet the 15 percent eligibility thresholds. One thing that is interesting I want to point out is that, you know, caucuses are all about passion, who can get their supporters to the caucuses to advocate for them for hours one win tonight in February? This is the Yang Gang right here.
[20:25:00]
And they are a beginner gang than the Biden gang, it's very clear.
This is just one precinct. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, and we are not sure what the eligibility thresholds going to be for either one of them. But it is interesting that in Des Moines, right now, at this one precinct, Yang is representing better than a year vice president.
We're going to squeeze in another quick break. We'll be right back and we're going to have more results.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Elizabeth Warren is at the caucus site trying to convince voters to support her.
Let's listen in.
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- who can bring our party together. We need all Democrats united. I'm someone who treats all our Democrats with respect. I've reached out and I run on four Democratic values that we can all support.
(CHEERS)
BLITZER: All right. We got -- we are getting some preliminary results right now. The first results in the Iowa caucuses.
Let's go to Grinnell College, Grinnell, Iowa.
Tom Foreman is watching.
This is the first round, Tom. I take it some of the -- some of the numbers are already there.
FOREMAN: Yes, the numbers are already here, Wolf, people are not moving along, a few here and, there but take a look at what we see already.
[20:30:00]
At the moment, the big winner of the moment would be Bernie Sanders over here. Look at those numbers for him. He is currently showing at about 44 percent, 45 percent of the vote here. That's the first two sections of bleachers here.
Down here is the Warren vote, another big winner at the moment. It's all preliminary. She's currently right on the doorstep of 30 percent, 28.6 percent, something like that. But let's swing over to the other side and look what's happening over here.
On other side, you have a bunch of other candidates, including Joe Biden who currently are showing no indication that they can reach the threshold level, which means they have to get to enough voters, that they have that 15 percent. Pete Buttigieg has a pretty good showing there, but probably not enough to get him in, if you look at the numbers.
Now remember, this is just this site. And just moments ago, Wolf, we saw people running across the floor here to join in with some of these camps to huge applause and cheers from people in these camps who wanted them with them on the first big vote here.
But if this continues this way, and again, it's very preliminary, Wolf, things could change, but it's hard to see how numbers this big, percentages this big could change in a way that these two aren't the big winners on this college campus at this caucus tonight.
And it's also relatively hard to see how anybody over on this other side reaches the threshold of 15 percent to be viable. If that is the case, after this first vote and then they go through the second vote, the realignment, if that remains the case, then the only people getting delegates out of this would be Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Again, one of the biggest caucuses in the state, this is a college campus. It is a very progressive area. Everyone here will tell you that. So they're not terribly surprised by that. But they may be surprised by the numbers here on this particular caucus night.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Yes. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, they're clearly above that 15 percent threshold. Hold that shot for us. Make sure your photojournalist keeps that shot for us.
I want to walk over to David Chalian. David, we're looking very closely -- remember, this is Grinnell College in Grinnell, Iowa, presumably a lot of liberal college students and others, academics, not necessarily reflective of the whole state.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Certainly not. You just saw what we found in the entrance polls of how Bernie Sanders does with young people. So it's not surprising that in a college campus that he would be doing rather well, which is what you're seeing there. But remember, Wolf, you're seeing, you're seeing 45.7 percent.
BLITZER: Almost half.
CHALIAN: -- 45.7 percent going to Bernie Sanders. Well, as you said, almost half. Again, it's a college campus. We saw among 17 to 29-year- olds, he was at 51 percent of the vote. I mean, he was winning overwhelmingly. So, it makes sense.
I just want to stress, this what you're seeing right now is that first round of voting. If this is how that first round sort of settles out, you see that Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang and Joe Biden are not going to be viable in this caucus site.
BLITZER: They won't have 15 percent.
CHALIAN: They're not hitting that 15 percent threshold. And so what's going to happen is -- and they're -- you know, that's a handful of supporters over there, obviously not the mantle in the room. But then, are they going to go to Warren? Are they going to Sanders? Are they going to leave? Those are their choices, basically.
And do Buttigieg, and Yang, and Biden supporters, do they find comfort anywhere? Does Yang feel simpatico with Sanders? Does Buttigieg supporters a little more in line with Warren? You look to see that.
But this, this is not something that should be thought of as meaningful to the statewide results will be. This is Bernie Sanders, a hero to young people, especially in Iowa -- among Iowa Democrats, doing really well among young Iowa Democrats in a college town.
BLITZER: This is one caucus out of more than 1,600 caucuses. It's a big one. It's an important one, but it's only one.
CHALIAN: Right. And so you can't -- it's -- all it is meaningful for is what's happening in that room. You can't assume just because it's a big caucus site that what we're seeing there with Bernie Sanders big support is somehow the same what he's going to have statewide. It's one of nearly 1,700 sites and all that is represented above is what's happening in that room in this moment.
BLITZER: We'll see where some of those voters go if their candidate doesn't have viability --
CHALIAN: And if he can't get those young voters out across the state, then you can start to saying how well Sanders, maybe.
BLITZER: That would be significant. Let's go back to Brian Todd over in Sioux City. What do you see over there, Brian?
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: OK. Wolf, they just divided up into the sections here and we're getting a real good sense of who may be viable and who maybe -- you know, where the votes may be siphoning off to other candidates. This is Biden section. They just let off a cheer here because they think they get a viable. But again, we don't have the estimates yet.
[20:35:00]
All right, but now we're going to come down here. Here's the Buttigieg section. They just told me they believe that they've got enough numbers here to be viable. But again, not -- the official count for the first round is not in yet.
But take a look, this is the Amy Klobuchar section. It's a little touch and go for them as to whether they're going to be viable. So, we have to keep an eye on them. Are they going to go -- where are these people going to go in the second round? How are the pitches going to be made?
Because after this first round of the count, each candidates representatives are going to be able to come over to place like this and make their pitch to these people to come to their side. So we're going to be watching that closely, too.
Now, let's take a look over here. Right now, the biggest section we've seen are the Bernie Sanders supporters right here. They're -- obviously, they've coalesced. They believe they've got viable numbers here. And again, rules say once you vote for a viable candidate, you're locked in. You can't change. There they go, very excited. A lot of energy for the Bernie Sanders people. Now, another candidate to watch over here. Let's -- sorry, this is -- there's a precinct chair crossing in front of me here. He is a busy man tonight. These are the Elizabeth Warren people here, keeping a close eye. And what's interesting here, Wolf, is that they're in good proximity to the Andrew Yang crowd over here.
Now, the Yang crowd is a smaller one we think. So, we have to keep an eye on that. If he's not viable, there's going to be a lot of pitches for these folks to go to either Warren, Biden, Buttigieg or Sanders. It's a pretty exciting moment right here.
BLITZER: Certainly, Brian. Stand by, I will get back to you. We're watching the caucuses all over the state of Iowa. Much more right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[20:40:29]
BLITZER: -- they are now under way. Let's check in with Brian Todd in Sioux City for us. Brian, it seems to be a little excitement where you are.
TODD: Real excitement, Wolf. This is the precinct secretary, Ernie Kult (ph).
ERNIE KULT, PRECINCT SECRETARY: Twenty-three for Buttigieg.
TODD: He has just counted the Buttigieg section here, 23 people. Now, if that's the final count for this section, then Buttigieg is viable, if that's the count. Now, they're going to verify all that. We're going to verify all that. Ernie called here. He's about to go to the next section. Ernie, we're going to, it looks like, Klobuchar, right?
KULT: Yes.
TODD: And he's going to start counting. He tells people to raise their hands. When he counts them, they drop their hands. I'm not going to get in your way. You go, Ernie.
KULT: I am actually caucusing for Amy.
TODD: Oh, so you cannot do this. So Steve is going to come over here, all right. That's one of the rules here. Since Ernie is caucusing for Amy Klobuchar, and we'll show you her supporters over here, OK, they're excited. They think they've got a shot here.
Since he is caucusing for Klobuchar, he cannot be the one who counts under the rules. He's going to bring the precinct chair over here and the precinct chair is up on the podium over there writing down some numbers.
He's going to hurry over here in a second so that he can count the Buttigieg section, because under the rules the secretary can't do that. So the precinct chair, Wolf, is going to come here and count the Buttigieg section. Now, what's interesting here is the -- I'm sorry, count the Klobuchar section right here. They just counted the Buttigieg and Biden sections. And again, if those estimates turn out to be final for the first round, they could be viable. But again, we don't know that yet because we've not confirmed the results. All right, now, watch. Here is the precinct chair. Steve wants that count.
STEVE, PRECINCT CHAIR: One, 2, 3, 4, 5, I counted you, 6 7 --
TODD: People have to drop their hands once they're counted.
STEVE: -- 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25.
TODD: Excitement here for the Amy Klobuchar section because they've counted -- you heard the count, 25. And again, this is an estimate. We're going to -- you know, we're going to give you the final estimates later, but they're excited here. You guys are excited because they could be viable. Looks like they are right now. And he's just calling out the Klobuchar count.
Now, we're about to go to the Bernie Sanders section where there's a lot less drama because it looks like a pretty solid number here and Ernie is about to count here. Everybody has got to raise their hands.
KULT: One, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 --
TODD: It's just crossed the viability threshold.
KULT: -- 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42.
TODD: OK. There's the count for the Bernie Sanders section.
KULT: Forty-two.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Forty-two.
TODD: And now, what they're going to try to do between the first and second rounds -- well, wait, let's first -- he's going to call that out to the precinct chair.
KULT: Bernie Sanders, 4-2.
STEVE: Forty-two, Sanders has 42.
KULT: Forty-two.
TODD: Bernie Sanders, a strong showing here in precinct 6, Wolf. And we're going to see what happens between the first and second round to see if they can bring over some possible Andrew Yang or other supporters who are not going to be viable.
BLITZER: Brian, which candidates are maybe missing or do we have the results of all the candidates so far? TODD: We do not. Come on up this way, guys. He's going to the Elizabeth Warren section now is what I have to tell you. No, not all the candidates are represented here. We have not seen anyone from Michael Bloomberg. We have not seen anyone from Michael Bennet. We have not seen anyone for Tulsi Gabbard.
[20:45:02]
BLITZER: What about Elizabeth Warren? Has Elizabeth, Brian, have been counted?
TODD: No. She's about to be counted right now, Wolf. I'm going to take you over here right now where she's being counted. Looks like she's got a strong showing and here's Ernie Kult doing the count. Let me get closer.
KULT: -- 9 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30. Thirty?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
TODD: He's going to call it out to the precinct chair.
KULT: Elizabeth Warren, 30.
STEVE: Elizabeth Warren has 30.
TODD: That may be doing it for the count here for the first round, Wolf. So at this point, we're going to start to give you some result estimates here.
STEVE: So the viable groups are Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren. Those one, two, three, four, five groups will remain viable and they're going to be rewarded delegates.
At this point, we will allow those that are nonviable to engage with the groups that are viable. The viable group may engage with the groups that are nonviable so that we reach a consensus and complete the second alignment. So at this point, groups should be engaging in that.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How long do we have for that?
STEVE: You have 20 minutes or hopefully not longer, but as long as it takes. But let's go 20 minutes. We don't have that many nonviable groups, so proceed.
TODD: OK, Wolf. So they're going to start to -- the viable candidates groups are -- all right, let's show you who won the first round first. OK, here are the numbers. The five viable candidates, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren. Only two nonviable candidates, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang.
Andrew Yang, I got to say, a little more numbers there that we thought he would get here because didn't anticipate very many for him at all here, but he's got 10 voters. Now, they are going to be crucial. I'm going to show you where they are. Come over here, Joel (ph).
Here are the Andrew Yang supporters right over here. OK. They're -- you're going to keep a watch on them closely. They got these numbers. The candidates groups are going to start to come and try to woo these people over to their side for the second round, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, stand by. We'll get those numbers for the second round, the final round, see where those nonviable vote -- candidates who voted for the nonviable candidates where they wind up. Let's go to Jeff Zeleny. He's in Des Moines at a huge caucus site as well. What are you seeing there?
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, we are on the -- we're at the 38th precinct in Des Moines, which is on the campus of Drake University, so a mix of students and adults. Now, you can see over here the bleachers are essentially empty. Those were full. The reason they're empty, watch this. They've all started to divide into preference groups.
We have Andrew Yang supporters here. Some Pete Buttigieg supporters are still coming through. Look at the size of this Elizabeth Warren crowd, go row by row here. If her crowd is not the biggest, it is certainly among the biggest. We're going to let the officials do the official count, but this is certainly one of the biggest. And a lot of those new people who were registering to vote had Warren stickers on, so keep an eye on that.
Look across here to the Pete Buttigieg crowd. This is also very big, as we walk through here, lined up, and it's a mix of students. It's a mix of older adults. And we're still just trying to file in here.
But one more thing, Wolf, we do have to show you. Take a look at this. This crowd is for Joe Biden, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, maybe 10 or so. So again, this is a college campus. He is not expected to do well here. This is not his base.
Come over here and look at Bernie Sanders. Row by row by row, there are dozens upon dozens, likely a few hundred here. They were thinking about 500 total in this whole precinct, Wolf. So the counting is going to begin fairly soon.
And what is going to happen in that, this is very interesting. These supporters are counted by their rivals. There's a team of counters. So the people who will count the Bernie Sanders supporters are precinct captains from the other campaign. So it's a bit of the honesty system here. People are counting the other people's votes and it's a mix of a team, so that's about to get underway here.
And just to give you a sense of the scope of this, this is a practice field. Before the voting began here, the track and field team was out here doing pole vaults, running and other things, so we're in a very large field. So it's about to get very interesting, because it looks to me like just eyeballing it, at least three campaigns will be viable, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg.
[20:50:05] Again, that's not official, but just eyeballing. That's what it looks like. Possibly Andrew Yang and the others look to be up for grab. So that will be interesting once the convincing and persuasion begins, Wolf.
BLITZER: Yes. Remember, the college -- a lot of college students there at Drake University in Des Moines, similar to Grinnell College out in Grinnell. Similar results, at least, so far that we're seeing.
David Chalian, you're getting some significant information from our entrance poll. People walking in to the caucuses and giving us some answers.
CHALIAN: Yes, that's right, Wolf. We talked a little bit ago about how health care was the most important issue for voters heading in. At least 41 percent of Democratic caucus goers heading into the caucuses tonight said it was the issue that mattered most to them, far away the number-one issue.
So we did a deeper dive about those voters. So what about that 41 percent of the electorate? How did they split? Look at this. Bernie Sanders with 24 percent of them, but Pete Buttigieg with 23 percent of them. These two candidates who have very different views on health care are splitting these health care voters.
We also want to take a look about those voters that told us they oppose Medicare for All. They don't want a government-run system. It's about 36 percent of the electorate. Look at this, Biden and Buttigieg, the two candidates who have not been supportive of Medicare for All, followed by Amy Klobuchar, also not supportive of it, you can see that health care appeal, their position, to not join Medicare for All, to not get onboard with that, has helped them win these voters a little bit more than a third of the electorate to their side because of their position, Wolf.
BLITZER: David, thank you very much. So the Iowa caucuses, they are really under way. The first results coming up very, very soon. Anderson, over to you.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: Yes, we've been watching it closely with our panel. Van Jones, what sticks out to you?
VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I mean, that whole thing right there with Pete. You know, what's interesting about Pete, this is -- this really to me feels make-or-break for Pete. Listen, Biden would love to win this, but he's got his firewall he says in North Carolina.
COOPER: South Carolina.
JONES: Yes, in South Carolina. You know, certainly, you know, other people would like to win it. Pete's whole rationale has been I can get these kinds of voters on my side. These are my people. If he comes up really short, I think it's really, really tough for him. But, you know, looking at what you're seeing at least with the entrance polls, if he comes up strong, if Biden slips very badly and Pete slips in, his entire strategy pays off tonight.
COOPER: Jess?
DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: He's put all the chips on the table --
COOPER: Yes.
AXELROD: -- on Iowa. Both he and Elizabeth Warren invested deeply in this state. And they're sort of locked in races within the race. One set for primacy among progressives. And I think it's very important for Buttigieg to finish ahead of Biden if he's going to make some claim to move forward as a credible candidate here. So, there's a lot on the -- a lot at stake here.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Buttigieg is really the only candidate who's come out and said and been so direct about it, I have to win. I need to -- not win, but I have to do well here or forget about it. And if you look at the, you know, the entrance poll results, the early ones David and I have been kind of poring over them, he seems to be someone who has a broad appeal to older voters and to younger voters. And he is an urban and rural. And so he seems to have succeeded to a degree. I mean, who knows.
JONES: We'll see.
BORGER: But he really is somebody who seems to have impressed a lot of people in very different groups in Iowa.
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Can I just add --
NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: And can this be kind of a launching point for him? I mean, everybody talks about Obama in 2008. And he did well in South Carolina subsequently. Buttigieg, obviously, doing really poorly right now in South Carolina.
But, listen, if he comes out stronger today, you might see some movement in terms of him expanding his coalition because it has largely been all white. He hasn't typically done well with any young voters of any race, really. It's really sort of older voters who see him as sort of a nice grandson or something like that. He got to kind of expand that to do much better.
SMERCONISH: Passion gets rewarded tonight. This asks a lot of people to come out. I mean, we're enjoying this. We love this. It's exciting. But these folks in Iowa, they've got to come out and commit an evening to doing it.
I was taken by that entrance survey that said that 56 percent decided before January. So, they've been hardcore for quite some time and what's going on at least for roughly half of them in the last couple of weeks really hasn't mattered because they've already been set in their ways.
JESS MCINTOSH, CNN COMMENTATOR: I think Buttigieg and Warren are in similar positions that they need to be in a tough cluster, whatever that cluster is. If third is really close to second, then they can be there. If third is way down, then that's going to make everybody look askance.
I was very nervous for Sanders because the expectations were set so high for him going into tonight. And so far, things look good for his folks. But I think that he really needed to come out on top of this one.
Biden, I'm equally nervous for because his whole rationale is electability. And I think that firewall in South Carolina is there because he is perceived as the candidate who can win. If he comes in fourth, that firewall can go somewhere else.
[20:55:08]
AXELROD: You know, something about Bernie Sanders, Jess, is that he has a very committed base and they're going to stick with him and he is raising money every month. The thing that drives people out of these races is they run out of money.
And one of the dangers for Joe Biden is if he's seen as flagging here. He's having a very hard time raising money and that won't help. But Bernie has a renewable, you know, source of revenue. I think for Elizabeth Warren, the question is, if she is -- if he is seen as a primary progressive candidate, does she continue to raise the money she needs in the long term to go on?
COOPER: Governor, I mean, it's pretty stunning that Vice President Biden is having such financial problems. And for a guy who was sitting vice president under Barack Obama.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, (D) FORMER VIRGINIA GOVERNOR: Yes, he wasn't successful on the online like the other candidates were. He went the old traditional way, went out and got the $2,800 contributions. And once you get -- once you can't get it again. But you know, the on line base generally goes to the more progressive moral left. They are on the issues.
They appeal more what Bernie was talking about, Elizabeth was talking about. Pete was new, young, energetic. And that is going to be the big challenge. If he doesn't have a good night tonight, where's he go find that new money? And as I keep saying, once we finish those four contests, March 3rd, potentially is $100 million day. I mean, you're talking 14 states, two --
AXELROD: Or as Bloomberg says, lunch money.
MCAULIFFE: But then a week later -- yes, for (INAUDIBLE).
BORGER: That's fine.
(CROSSTALK)
MCAULIFFE: And then a week later in March 17th, I mean, you've get other big contest coming at, right? They've got Michigan, Washington. You've got in that first two weeks of March literally $100 million to $150 million day. You've got to come out. Joe Biden has been the leader all along. He's got to come out strong here.
AXELROD: One of the interesting things about these numbers that David's talked about is there is a real -- there are mirror images, Sanders and Biden. Sanders is doing very, very well among young people, not well among people over 65.
BORGER: His age.
AXELROD: Yes, yes. He's not old enough for the old people. But Biden is doing very well with those older voters. They're doing equally well on the polls of thing, but doing very poorly among young people which is a key to why he's not doing well in online fundraising.
MCAULIFFE: And the younger people are the ones who write money online. They'll give you $5 a month and it comes back every single month.
BORGER: So Bernie with young voters and first-time attendees of the caucuses.
HENDERSON: Yes.
COOPER: Alexandra --
BORGER: It's important. It shows the enthusiasm.
COOPER: -- what do you make of -- I mean, for Sanders the enthusiasm, though, is something which it's hard to underestimate that. I mean, he can continue with these low volume donors. I mean, they're giving small amounts of money at a time.
ALEXANDRA ROJAS, FORMER 2016 BERNIE SANDERS CAMPAIGN ORGANIZER: I think in terms of electability, right, it's -- I think it's less about moderation and this is bearing out, it's more about motivation. And we have to remember, it's not just those Obama/Trump voters but all the folks that sat at home in 2016 -- that sat at home in 2008 that didn't show up in 2016. That's young people. That's people of color. That's union households. And this election has to be about not just flipping those small amounts, talking to a tiny sliver, but the broader electorate.
HENDERSON: Bernie Sanders is starting to do better among Latino voters and African-American voters, much better than he did last go round. I think this state is about 6 percent Latino, about 4 percent African- American. It's only a 10 percent slice, but it will be interesting to see how he does with those voters and then you sort of skip ahead to Nevada, lot of Latino voters there --
JONES: Yes. One of the things that we don't talk enough about is the importance of the labor vote and the union vote and Sanders has run the table in terms of the unions, both in Iowa and elsewhere, and you're going to see I think that play out also in Nevada. I just think that Sanders is a phenomenon.
AXELROD: Yes.
JONES: He had a heart attack. He was -- you know, we were -- we have that violin out from all, it's so good to see him, still able to walk out on stage after a heart attack. He is running ahead of the pack.
MCAULIFFE: We just see it in Nevada with Conner (ph) which is the by far --
(CROSSTALK)
MCAULIFFE: They have not gone with that.
AXELROD: Still, Biden has no -- he has the fighter --
MCAULIFFE: He got the firefighter.
(CROSSTALK)
AXELROD: It's not all.
COOPER: We're nearing the top of the hour. I want to go back to Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you very much. The caucuses have been under way now for almost an hour. We're about to start getting actual results. This will be very, very significant. Take a look, these caucuses, they are pretty full. There are about 1,600 of them around the state.
Jeff Zeleny is at one -- at Drake University in Des Moines. So set the scene for us over there, Jeff.
ZELENY: Wolf, we are just moments away from the counting to begin. They have lined up in their order. You can see the precinct chair there at the front of the room. They're going to begin counting.
We have learned that there are 400 people at this precinct caucus. That's about the exact same as four years ago, so not the big turnout that some of the campaigns were maybe hoping for. So to reach viability, you have to have 60 people out of the 400. So eyeballing it, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders, clearly meet that threshold.
Walk with me as we go to some of the other campaigns here. Andrew Yang might just be on the cusp here. Let's take a look at the size of his crowd. It is, you know, certainly many students, many others here. We will see if they do reach viability.
Interesting thing happening here, Wolf. This man in the black vest, he is a Joe Biden supporter. He has been having conversations with Amy Klobuchar's supporters. Amy Klobuchar clearly is not going to be viable. You can look at the size of her crowd here. There are not 60 people in this line.
