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Trump and Biden Deliver Starkly Different Closing Arguments; Americans Heading to Polls in High-Stakes Presidential Election; Path to 270: Scenarios for a Trump or Biden Victory; Coronavirus Infections Surging Across Nation as Voters Hit Polls. Aired 4-4:30a ET

Aired November 03, 2020 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[04:00:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: A very good early Tuesday morning to you. It's a big day today for this country. I'm Jim Sciutto.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: It is a very big day, and we're so glad you're with us to start it. I'm Poppy Harlow, and the wait is over. Election is here in less than two hours from now, a round of polling places will open their doors as millions of Americans are expected to make their voices heard today. They will be joining the nearly 100 million people who have already cast their ballots, early voting in record numbers.

SCIUTTO: And that's 73 percent of the everybody who voted in 2016. It's a remarkable interest in this election but still a divided nation and a growing, expanding pandemic all setting up what will be the most important election at least in our lifetimes.

Both campaigns with very different closing arguments, but sharing the same goal, to win, turnout the base today, win the White House. We have reporters across the country in all the key battleground states. Let's begin though with CNN's Drew Griffin. He is in Florida on what to expect there today.

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DREW GRIFFIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Jim and Poppy, you can expect a very, very busy day in Florida, although you've got to ask, who out there has not yet voted. Sixty-two percent of Floridians registered to vote have already cast ballots and they're going to be accepting mail-in ballots at places just like this. Very important that those ballots get dropped off here and not at the post office. Even though the supervisors of elections are making plans to be at the post office to collect all those mail-in ballots.

Remember, the deadline for mail-in ballots in Florida is 7:00 p.m. election night. After that, they do not count, no matter what postmark they have on it here in Leon County in Tallahassee. The supervisor of elections actually has police escorts later this evening to bring those ballots to him so they can be counted. How quickly will the count come in? Hopefully, across the state of

Florida, a state that's known for having trouble counting the ballots, this time, just about everybody is saying it's going to go smoothly and quickly. Jim and Poppy, we will see very soon.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Yes, we will. Thank you for that. So, to Wisconsin, Bill Weir is standing by.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL WEIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Jim, Poppy, happy election day from Wisconsin. Any minute now, alarm clocks will be going off all across this state, waking up clerks who will pour their coffee and begin opening and counting the some 2 million absentee ballots cast in this state. They can only start counting at 7 o'clock. And once they start, they cannot stop. So, smaller towns up north that may lean towards President Trump, those counts will take minutes, and they will be ready to announce when the polls close tonight.

But clerks in places like Milwaukee are saying brace for a long night. They have three shifts of 50 different counters, poll counters, ballot counters. Sort of socially distanced in a big facility in Milwaukee. They say they will be counting until at least 3 or 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday.

The President sort of highlighting the importance of this battleground state and its 10 electoral college votes making one of his final argument symptoms here last night, and choosing Kenosha, a town that is still hurting after the police shooting of Jacob Blake and now waiting for the murder trial of Kyle Rittenhouse. Who has become a conservative celebrity in Wisconsin in some circles there. That President Trump would choose to come here, just highlighting the politics of division that he has employed trying to rally up the base. And it'll be interesting to see if he adds more new members to the Trump train that won the state for him in 2016 -- Jim, Poppy.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Bill Weir, thank you so much. Victor Blackwell, he is in Georgia where both campaigns held rallies in that state in the final days of the race, in a state that was a big win for Trump in 2016. Victor, what did you find?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Jim, Poppy, polls open here in Georgia in just a few hours. Until then, this is the only place to vote at one of these official absentee ballot drop-off boxes. The Secretary of State tells us that of the millions of ballots that have been sent out, about 260 of them have not yet come back in.

[04:05:00]

But even with those outstanding ballots, Georgia has set records during several weeks of early voting. More than 3.9 million votes cast either through absentee mail-in or the those in-person early votes. That's just shy of the 4.1 million votes cast in all of the 2016 election. That was a record. It's expected to be broken today.

Now, if the polls are not extended because of long lines or technical problems, the supervisors of elections across the state tell me that they expect that they will be able to report many of those votes early in the evening because in part, they have been allowed by this new rule to start opening those mail-in ballots and scanning them in and then just start tabulation at 7:00 p.m. Eastern when the polls close. And Georgia is not the quadrennial battleground like Florida.

But this year, we expect since it's a tossup, it will be influential to try to paint the picture of what we can expect throughout the evening. And that's why we've some of the big name surrogates for President Trump and former Vice President Biden come here to the state including former President Obama who was here on Monday to try to drive up the vote in Atlanta. Again, polls close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern here in Georgia -- Jim, Poppy.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: OK, Victor, thank you so much for that.

Let's go to the battleground state of North Carolina now. Dianne Gallagher joins us in this state that could play a big role in the balance of power in the Senate -- Dianne.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, Jim, Poppy, we throw the word swing state, battleground around a lot, but North Carolina is a state that not only do those running for President need to win but it also has this hotly contested Senate race that could determine the balance of the Senate. And so, all eyes have been on this southern state.

So far, around 4.6 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots. That's around 95 percent of the total 2016 turnout. It's also about 62 percent of all registered voters. And so, election officials say that they still expect a pretty healthy turnout on election day.

Now, look, when it comes to what's going to happen, North Carolina has been processing those absentees by mail ballots since the last week of September. The state board is pretty confident that it's going to be releasing the early in-person voting numbers and the absentee by mail numbers that were received by the day before the election within the hours after polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. They say that they really expect that they should be able to have about 97 percent of the results. Of course, these are unofficial results, by the end of election night.

You know, Jim, Poppy, they do say there's about 145,000 absentee ballots that are still outstanding. Those people can still turn them in. Either at their county board of elections or put it in the mail as long as it's received by 5:00 p.m. on November 12th and is postmarked by election day -- Jim, Poppy.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Thank you so much to all of our correspondents there. Let's discuss some of the bigger picture issues with Tim Naftali. He's a CNN presidential historian, former director of the Nixon Presidential Library. Tim, special award for staying up with up tonight. It's great to have you on as always.

I wonder if -- listen, the President has been attacking this election, continues to, right, as somehow rigged, particularly if he loses. There have been a whole host of obstacles attempting to be put up to prevent more people from voting. And most of those have been defeated in court.

I just wonder, when you look at the number of people voting, nearly 100 million people already, record turnout expected following today. How do you take that as a historian? Do you take that as the public, American citizens pushing back on an idea that they can't trust their elections, that they can't vote, they can't make a difference?

TIM NAFTALI, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Well, I first reaction is as a citizen and the right to vote is our right to participate in our broader democracy. And it is a very healthy sign that already almost 100 million Americans have sought to participate in this all important democratic institution. So, I think it shows the healthiness of our society that despite the disinformation to discourage people from voting by mail, despite all of that misinformation, so many Americans turned out, have turned out to vote, and I believe we will see many Americans turning out to vote today wearing masks, socially distancing, in order to participate in their democracy. It's a healthy sign.

[04:10:00]

HARLOW: Tim, how do you think Americans will remember this election outside of who wins?

NAFTALI: Well, this is a hugely important election. We have had elections before in national emergencies. We have had elections where incumbents have sought reelection at a time of a national emergency. This is the first time that the two major candidates disagree on the nature of the national emergency.

In 1864 Lincoln was seeking reelection. His opponent, General McClellan, accepted that there was a Civil War. In this case, we have an incumbent who has not fully accepted the nature of the challenge to our society, the pandemic. He has doubted the lethality of the pandemic, and he has encouraged what have turned out to be in some cases super spreader events. So, that is a fundamental difference about the election.

And so, the outcome of this election is going to say something about what the American people believe about the pandemic and the extent to which it is a national crisis. This is also the first election where an impeached President is seeking to be reelected. This has never happened before. Our previously impeached presidents were second term presidents or presidents who've then decided not to run again.

If the American people reelect the impeached president, it will say a lot going forward about what the American people -- what they believe about abuse of power and what they believe about a president's responsibility to share information to Congress.

SCIUTTO: You're a historian of many things but you're a Nixon historian. Did the country recover, in large part, from the damage of Watergate, from the long national nightmare as President Gerald Ford described it. Are there lessons in how the nation recovered from that divisive time then to now?

NAFTALI: There are lessons. But there are also worrying signs. The reason why the country was able to recover was that there was a bipartisan acceptance that crimes and abuses of power had been committed. Republicans joined with Democrats in saying never again. They joined together and wrote legislation, passed legislation, which improved, raised the bar for ethics in government, that lowered the bar for access to information, that ensured other elements of privacy to prevent the kinds of abuses that Richard Nixon had attempted to do, and had done.

The problem today is we don't have a bipartisan agreement on the nature of the challenges to our constitutional system posed by President Trump. So, the lessons of Watergate involve the nation deciding not only to move forward but to build a stronger set of institutions to avoid corruption and abuses in the future. This election will determine the extent to which we have a national consensus that we shouldn't repeat the constitutional crisis we went through, and the abuses of power that we saw.

SCIUTTO: Tim Naftali always good to draw on you sense of history on a day like today, in particular. Thank you.

NAFTALI: Thank you, Jim, Poppy.

SCIUTTO: Still to come, 270, that is the winning number everyone will be watching for tonight. We're going to break down the candidates, both candidates', particular paths to victory.

HARLOW: And after month of talks in Washington, the national comes to election day without a second stimulus deal. Millions of Americans in need of help, and tonight's winner will likely impact their future on this front. We're going to discuss it all with the former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett ahead.

[04:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Well, one number rules over election night, and that number is 270. Both the President and the Biden campaign are projecting confidence in their path or paths to victory, but election officials across the country are warning voters to be patient. It might take a while to determine the winner. SCIUTTO: Listen, that just comes with counting a lot of these mail-in

votes. There may be, however, early clues to look out for. CNN's John King at the magic wall where we expect him to be to walk us through some of the scenarios.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The tumultuous pandemic campaign of 2020 is drawing to a close. And Tuesday night we fill in the map. We count America's vote, some states red, some states blue and we determine who is the next President of the United States.

Let's use the 2016 map for little pointers on what to watch for on election night. Number one, patience is required in this pandemic election because of a good thing, overwhelming early and mail-in voting by Americans have many states thinking they will be overwhelmed in the count and it could take some time.

Three states in particular, the three states that made Donald Trump President, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once the Democratic blue wall flipped in 2016, all three say it could take them into Wednesday, perhaps even longer to count all those mail-in ballots and to know who the winner is. Especially if it's close. Pennsylvania, in fact, says it could go to Thursday or Friday if it's very close when they count those ballots. So, we need patience, number one.

But we will get some clues. Some states that are good at counting mail-in ballots include Florida and North Carolina, both red in 2016. Both absolutely critical if the President is going to pull off another election day surprise with massive turnout, overcome the polls and win reelection, he has to win Florida and he has to win North Carolina.

So, as we get into late Tuesday night, and those states reporting more and more vote totals, we should get a clue. If Joe Biden could carry either Florida or North Carolina or both. That would be a statement. We may not get somebody to 270 if we're waiting on these guys, but that would be a statement, something to watch.

Another state that expects to finish early, Arizona. Not as big in the electoral college but again, reliably red state for a long time, back to the Bill Clinton. Not since then as a Democrat won it. If that one flipped it would give us a sign on election night.

[04:20:00]

The battle of course, we remember all remember 2016, we pick presidents not by the popular vote. Joe Biden is expected to win the popular vote, and some think by a bigger margin than Hillary Clinton did four years ago. We pick presidents state by state. Donald Trump is President because of the electoral college.

So again, Joe Biden, a comfortable lead here, a modest lead here, and a modest lead here, just flipping the so called blue wall, rebuilding it for the Democrats, that would make Joe Biden President of the United States. He does see an opportunity, again, to do Florida, to take North Carolina, maybe Arizona. Some Democrats have dreams. They're close in Texas. They're close in traditionally Republican Iowa. They're close in traditionally Republican Ohio. It is possible if the late election breaks to Joe Biden late, that he could make a statement election. But they can't plan on that in the Biden campaign.

So, the assumption is maybe Trump is strong in these traditionally Republican areas, protect up here. If you're the President of the United States, you have a steeper hill now than you did in the dramatic come back, dramatic election day surge in 2016. The President of the United States needs to keep Florida, needs to keep North Carolina, and then perhaps if he loses Arizona, if he could get Pennsylvania back, that puts him right back in the game. That's a tie right there. 269, 269. There's a Congressional district here, a Congressional district here.

Those two states Nebraska and Maine pick their Presidents that way, divide their electoral votes that way, by Congressional district. So, that would make or if the President could get Wisconsin back, that would do it. Which why in the end, we may have to wait for the votes. The blue wall states absolutely critical to the Democrats, advantage Joe Biden going in. Here's how we ended 2016. Pretty soon we find out how we end 2020.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Yes, we do. John King, thank you, as always.

Ahead for us, Dr. Deborah Birx has a dire warning about the state of COVID pandemic, saying we are now entering the most deadly phase. What she says needs to be done next.

[04:25:00]

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SCIUTTO: Well, the expected fall surge of new COVID-19 infections, sadly it's here. In just one month, the country's 7-day case average -- the figure the experts watch --jumped by more than 97 percent.

HARLOW: El paso, Texas, is just one city that hit a tragic milestone. Just on Monday reporting an all-time high number of hospitalizations in the entire pandemic. Medical experts are warning that when hospitalizations climb, deaths are likely to follow. The city is going as far as adding a fourth mobile morgue unit and opening the civic center to hold additional patients.

We're joined now by Dr. Esther Choo a professor of medicine at Oregon Health and Science University in Portland. Doctor, you wrote just about a month ago from a health perspective, the upcoming U.S. election could be the most consequential in our lifetime. That was a month ago and here we sit today in a week where we are seeing a record number of daily cases.

DR. ESTHER CHOO, PROFESSOR OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE, OREGON HEALTH AND SCIENCE UNIVERSITY: Yes, the other thing we said in that piece, which I wrote with Dr. Aaron Carroll was that the candidates have one of two choices. They could either admit that we have been a failure up to this point in our pandemic response or they could deny that it was a problem, and doggedly stick to a course that was almost certain to make us have increases in cases and in hospitalizations and deaths. And I really think our two candidates have chosen their corners and that's where we are going into this day. And I think voters will see that and will make decisions based on their own priorities.

SCIUTTO: Let's talk, if we can, about election day in particular and voters' decisions about to vote, and how to vote. You have some recommendations for folks who want to go, if they haven't mailed in their ballot, want to go to polling stations today, how best to do it safely.

CHOO: I think all of the things that we have been telling people to do in general are true in polling stations. And fortunately, the polling stations have been great about following CDC guidelines and making it easy for people to comply with these things. So, things like social distancing, we're seeing on sidewalks leading up to polling stations that they are clearly marked. It seems like people are really doing their kind of community part in encouraging each other to really stick to those guidelines.

Everybody should show up wearing a mask and actually carrying an extra one in case their mask gets dirty or wet if they're waiting outside. Bring an extra pen and some hand sanitizer, and also just plan to be quick in and quick out. So, you see a friend, that's great, wave, but I think it's the congregating around the time of polling that we worry about.

But as far as the way that it's set up, the way they're moving people in for one-way traffic and making sure that standards for keeping commonly shared surfaces clean, the polling places really seem to have it down pat.

HARLOW: I did think it was notable seeing early this morning the CDC has put on their web site basically permission for people even with COVID to go vote in person. They said this is your, you know, right as an American and you can do it. You have to do it safely, wear a mask, social distancing, et cetera. But I thought that was notable for anyone who may be watching now, who feels like if they haven't voted absentee or early, and now they can't vote. The CDC is saying that they can. What do you think about that?

CHOO: Yes, I saw that, and it was, you know, I thought it was remarkable in its simplicity. I mean, it's almost a statement of a fact more than a medical recommendation. They're saying people who are in isolation or quarantine have the right to vote.

I mean, just a simple fact, and so given that situation, here's what we recommend. And it really is all the same things we recommend for other people. But the one thing is they ask people who know they test positive or are under quarantine do notify the polling workers when they arrive on site. Pay them that courtesy so that then they can take extra precautions with those people. Whether it's with extra personal protective equipment as they come close to those people or moving those people in priority lines and getting them out faster. So, your polling station may have places specifically kind of triaging

people who are under isolation or quarantine so they can get them in and out and keep other people safer. But in general, you know, polling places are set up with the presumption that we are going to have people who we don't know are sick, you know, who could spread it. So, I think that little extra layer provides some reassurance to other people who are going to vote.

SCIUTTO: Listen, everyone has the right to vote and that's priority. But before we go, just, can you paint a picture ...

for people who are concerned when they hear these alarming predictions from a Dr. Birx or Dr. Fauci about exactly where this pandemic is headed?