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CNN Live Event/Special
CNN's Key Race Alert For The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Aired 10-11p ET
Aired November 03, 2020 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[22:00:00]
WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Voting is about to end in four states, including the key battlegrounds of Ohio and Nevada. Total of 21 electoral votes are on the line right now. We got the key race alert right now.
We believe it's too early to call in Iowa, for example, six electoral votes right there. Too early to call in Nevada right there, six electoral votes. Too early to call in Utah right now, as well, another six electoral votes there. It's too early to call in the state of Montana, three electoral votes right now.
Let's take a look at Electoral College map where things stand right now. There you can see in the race for 270, needed to win the presidency, Biden still ahead. He has 89 Electoral College votes. Trump has 72 Electoral College votes.
Let's get a key race alert right now. Here's where things stand in these key battleground states. Let's start in Ohio right now. Sixty- nine percent of the estimated vote is in in Ohio. Trump is ahead by 102,000 votes over Biden, 50.5 percent to 48.1 percent.
In North Carolina, 84 percent of the vote is in. Biden has a very small lead of nearly 30,000 votes. 49.7 percent to 49.1 percent.
In Minnesota right now, 29 percent of the vote is in. Biden has a relatively comfortable 300,000-vote lead over Trump, 64.2 percent to 33.8 percent.
In New Hampshire, more than a quarter of the vote is in, 26 percent of the vote is in. Biden has a nearly 20,000-vote lead over Trump, 53.6 percent to 45.1 percent.
We got seven more states we want to check out right now. Let's check out Florida right now. Trump is pretty comfortably ahead with 93 percent of the vote is in. He's got a lead of 382,000 votes over Biden in Florida, 29 electoral votes in Florida.
In Pennsylvania, only 20 percent of the vote is in. Trump is ahead by some 46,000 votes, 51 percent to 47.7 percent in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan right now, a quarter of the vote almost is in. Trump is ahead by 228,000 votes, but it's early, 23 percent of the estimated vote is in, 57 percent. In Texas, 77 percent of the vote is in. Trump has a 215,000-vote lead over Biden, 50.5 percent to 48.1 percent.
In Wisconsin, more than a quarter of the vote is in. Trump has a narrow 28,000-vote lead over Biden right now, still early, 50.6 percent there.
In Georgia, 51 percent of the vote is in. Trump has a pretty comfortable lead right now, 346,000-lead over Biden, 16 electoral votes in Georgia.
In Virginia, more than half of the vote is in, 53 percent. Trump's lead is 189,000 votes over Biden, 53 percent to 45.3 percent.
Let's walk over to John King at the magic wall. John, you know, what are you looking at right now? What's jumping out at you?
JOHN KING, CNN HOST: Right now, just looking every now and then. I just try look at president by county. I just like -- we look by states all the time. I just like to look by county. You will see lot more red counties in America. You always do. That's the way it works.
But, you know, because of the smaller counties, but the Democrats win in the red counties. We are just taking a look at that as a personal curiosity as we go through the nights.
And now, we come back to this right here, 50.7 to 47.9 in the national vote. But that is not how we pick presidents. We look at 2020 right here. Look what happened in the last few minutes. Ohio is red. The president is ahead right now, if you look at the vote there, 70 percent there, 128,000 lead. A big shift there as more votes come in in the state of Ohio, 50.8 to 47.9 percent.
This is why we've been telling you throughout the night, requires a little bit of patience on our part and on your part, as well. They're counting votes in different ways, so we're going to see some swings and sometimes they're going to happen quickly when new votes come in.
The president of the United States is now leading in a state he must win, battleground Ohio, 50.8 percent to 47.9 percent, 70 percent, still a ways to go.
As David Chalian noted earlier, we're waiting for some early vote here. We are waiting for states to count their votes. Some are doing it in a different order: early voting, mail-in voting, and today voting. We'll see how it plays out.
I just want to check to see if the margins are changing as we play through this. This is a big shift. This is a very big shift on the map. President Trump, Ohio goes back to red for now. We're not done. We have a ways to go, 30 percent of the count there.
You're looking at Pennsylvania right now. If you're looking at this map right now, let me just pull it back out a second, if you're a Democrat sitting at home right now, you're looking at this map and you'll say, oh, my, it's happening again. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. If you're a Republican, you're saying that's what we needed.
Here's the thing. Slow down. We have a long way to go in all of these states. No offense to anybody, but we're 21 percent right here. We know Pennsylvania has some issues. Some of the mail-in votes won't be counted until tomorrow.
It's worth looking at. These are all real votes. The question is we don't have context yet because we're so early in these states. So, just be careful. Don't look at the map at this hour and make any judgments because we're in the middle chapters here and some states in the early chapters.
Again, president has a lead in Michigan right now. Last time we were here, he was leading in Wayne County. We knew that wasn't going to happen. Joe Biden is ahead now but this a tiny, tiny vote count.
[22:05:02]
KING: There's a long way to go in these states. That's what makes them interesting. They're going to film back and forth a little bit.
Let's move over to Wisconsin. Looking again, the resident has a narrow lead here, 51 if you want to round that up to 48 if you round that up, but again, 30 percent of the vote, a long way to go.
So, when you pull it out like this, people look at it at home, wow, we're got done. We have a long way to go. In a lot of places including Virginia, is red right now. If the president can keep Virginia red, the president is going to be re-elected. But we don't know this yet still, 43 to 45. That has actually gotten closer in recent times.
Again, you come back up here, this is where elections in Virginia are won and lost. Northern Virginia is what has changed Virginia from a purple state to a blue state, and we're waiting still. We only have 28 percent of the vote. Fairfax County is the largest vote center in the state. It is democratic overwhelmingly so. So we'll see when votes come in here.
Let's move down here. Look at this. Look at North Carolina. This was over 100,000 at one point. It was over 120,000 at one point. It is now 5,000 -- 2,000, as you speak. More votes come in. That's the magic. That is the magic of live data reporting and the counting votes, 2,000 votes ahead, 49.4 percent to 49.4 percent in battleground North Carolina.
Joe Biden doesn't need it, but if he gets it, he blocks the president's path to re-election most likely. This state, remember, again, this is a textbook example of what we've asked throughout the night, patience on our part, patience on your part. Early votes came in. Joe Biden built an early lead. Now, we're getting Election Day votes in. North Carolina, it is tight.
BLITZER: Let's take a look at Arizona. The votes are coming in relatively quickly in Arizona. Nearly a quarter of the vote is in in Arizona. KING: And so you see it blue right now. Not since Bill Clinton has Arizona ended the night. We're not at the end of the night. But not since Bill Clinton with the help of Ross Perot has Arizona gone blue. And so you look at it now and you see the entire state. You see the familiar cities, Flagstaff, Sedona, Yuma, and Tucson.
Let's be honest. This comes down to Maricopa County and Phoenix, one of the fastest-growing areas in America. Sixty percent or more of the vote comes right out of here, 77 percent of it in. Again, we'll figure out what's missing from that. Joe Biden is at 54 percent, the president is at 44 percent. So, a 10-point race, a little under 10- point race.
Let's go back and look at it. Excuse me. Get that click in. Again, so Donald Trump wins Arizona four years ago, wins Maricopa County. This is the biggest basket of votes, Phoenix and the fast-growing suburbs.
Four years later, in 2016 to 2020, this is one of the fastest-growing states. You get out of Phoenix, go get down here, fast-growing suburbs. Again, the suburbs have revolted against this president. There is an important Senate race in this state, as well.
Let's come back to 2020 and look at the map. Maricopa County is blue. It is a source of joy in the Biden campaign right now. They have to keep it that way.
Let's look down here, Pima County, again, 64%, if you round that up to 35 percent, 80 percent of the vote in. You go back here, 54 percent. So, by 10 percent, these points are overperforming Hillary Clinton.
I just want to see how the turnout is here, 224,000 four years ago, already 260,000. Again, one of the gifts of this election, no matter who wins, turnout is up everywhere. That's a good thing. We want that to happen every time. But again, you see the split right there, Joe Biden overperforming Hillary Clinton there.
You got some rural areas to fill in in the state. If you go back in time, you can see what happens here, the states. But this is it. This is it. Maricopa County, Phoenix, and the suburbs around it are again traditionally republican territory increasingly because of demographics and because of the suburban revolt against the president of the United States.
Maricopa County, if that holds up, that's the ball game in Arizona, but we have a ways to go there. The biggest piece of the state, Joe Biden is doing what he has to do otherwise.
Again, Wolf, we talked about this before. Both campaigns look at the last guy's map. So you look at the Trump map from 2016. If you're Joe Biden, priority one is hold every Clinton state and then look for things to flip. If you can flip Arizona, you're chipping away at the president.
So the main priority for the Biden campaign is the blue wall. Let's come back out and look. This is the main priority. Flip these guys back, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If you do that, that's all you have to do if you're Joe Biden. That's all you have to do.
But your backup plan is get something else, right? North Carolina is your hope. That one is getting close. If you can't get this, you go over here, as well. North Carolina right there, that's 1,300 votes.
BLITZER: Basically a tie.
KING: That's basically a tie. Again, if you end it that way, you win. A win is a win. But we got a ways to go, 86 percent. This is why they're so much fun. Let's come back out here and see if anything is updated. It is still at 70 percent here. We got to give these states credit. In the challenge they face, many of these states are reporting pretty quickly.
BLITZER: Yeah.
KING: The challenge they face with all the different kinds of voting this year, it's a good thing to see. Just want to check -- want to go back to Arizona here. I was going to check the upper Midwest. You see 70 percent of the vote in here. Again, let's just see here, 70 percent. So four years ago, more conservative part of the state, 51 percent. This is where we are now, 51 percent to 46 percent. Let's just go back, 48 percent.
So the president is actually doing fine here, right? He is doing better at least so far right there, 26,000 votes. Now is at 25,000. So the president is doing better here, running up some votes here.
[22:10:00]
KING: The problem for the president, when you look at it this way, come back to 2020, that's great, that's what you want to do, you want to do better everywhere you can. The issue is way more people live here, way more people. And so, you get 798,000, 77 percent in. Let's compare that to Secretary Clinton four years ago. She had 702,000 to end the night.
We're not done yet. She was at 45 percent with the president at 49 percent, Joe Biden at 54 percent. That game is changing, if you can keep that there. We're still counting in Arizona. And again, that would be a flip.
If I can walk over here, I just want to show you the significance of this as you come through this here. Let's come back to the president's map from four years ago. And, again, if you're Joe Biden and you're looking at this map, you had a very comfortable lead here coming in. That would get the president down to 290. You had a lead here. It would get the president down to 280.
Then if you can pick this up here, you're at 269, 269. Everybody at home, take a gasp right now, 269-269. It never ends up this way, but we do have scenarios where it happens. If you're Joe Biden, you look up here in the state of Maine. You think you're going to pick up the second congressional district.
It's just that, just that, right? Michigan and Wisconsin, that is just -- I mean they're not easy to win. So I shouldn't say just. But Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and the congressional district there, there is also a congressional district in here, Nebraska and Maine, do it by congressional district, where Joe Biden is favored.
So it is possible for Joe Biden to win the presidency. That is a squeaker. But that's why Arizona is so important. You're looking at this map, you're thinking, well, Trump, is he going to pull off Pennsylvania again? Joe Biden had five, six, and seven-point lead at the end of the race. Hillary Clinton had three or four-point lead at the end of the last race.
But you're not sure about that. You think you're going to get it back, but you're not sure. You feel more comfortable at this. You feel more comfortable about that. If you can get that, that's the game. That's the game. You look at the last guy's map. You take something away. That is why Arizona matters.
Also, just remember the demographics of the United States. When I started covering presidential politics, that was red, it was purple, competitive state, that was red, and that was red, the changing of American demographics. I know tonight we're picking a president, 2020 and beyond, but we're also watching a changing country and how it votes and it's fascinating.
Now, we'll come back to here because we're not done yet on these things. But here's where we are right now. As they start to build the building blocks up, this is where it gets interesting, 89 percent to 72 percent. We are starting to fill in as we come over here. We are into the 10:00 hour, right? Yes, we are. I had to check the watch on that one. We are at the 10:00 hour. This is where presidential politics at 10:00, 11:00, up to midnight.
BLITZER: California, Oregon, Washington State are about to close at the top of the hour. Those are --
KING: Yep.
BLITZER: Those are big states, as well.
KING: They're counting more votes here, too. That is why as we get later into the night, this is why it matters more. Let's look at it again. Again, this is one Trump wanted to flip. Joe Biden wants to flip Arizona. Donald Trump wanted to flip Minnesota. Not happening as you look at it right now. You know, so we don't see that yet. We'll watch them. We will continue to watch it.
I just want to keep checking in on these. Again, if you're in the Trump campaign headquarters, you're looking at Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If you can hold those, then you hold the presidency, right?
But, again, we just want to remind you, you're going to see things on the map, going to hold for a while, but this is slow count, slower count. So we're going to see this play out, 30 percent of the vote in Wisconsin. You come over to Michigan. Again, some of this may come tomorrow. We'll see. They're going to do the best they can. As we get later in the night, we'll know more about that. You come over here to Pennsylvania, again, very, very early in the night. You see, I just want to take a peek down here, see how we're doing in Philadelphia. Look, 70,000 votes in Philadelphia, which means nothing, which means we're just starting --
BLITZER: Nine percent.
KING: Yeah. We're just starting the night in Pennsylvania. So we need to be careful about drawing any conclusions there. So then let's look at where we do have a lot of votes, right? This is real business now when you get to a place, 72 percent in Ohio. Donald trump up, stretching that lead a little bit, 177,000 votes.
The governor, Republican governor, Mike DeWine, thought the president would squeak it out. We'll see. We got a ways to go yet. As David Chalian noted, some early votes are still to be counted there. So, this could swing again. That is why we count to the end.
I want to come back to North Carolina which is now red for the president, 25,000 votes ahead. This is, again, you want to watch the map swing, right? Joe Biden had a big early lead in North Carolina. Democrats get optimistic. We have to remember the difference of this night in the pandemic election, the different ways people voted, and the different pace at which states are counting them.
North Carolina now, the president is ahead up to 88 percent, 49.6 percent to 49.2 percent. That means we still have more to count, but you see the swing. We're going to see that. We're going to see some states start out blue and go back red because of the way the votes are counted. Sometimes they count the early votes first or mail-in votes first. And today's votes, Election Day votes later.
Other states do it in a different order and will swing the other way which is why we just got to finish, don't try to end the book before we get to the finish line.
BLITZER: Right.
KING: At 49.6 percent to 49.2 percent. Let's pull this out. You see this red here. Again, this one here, I am waiting to see, up to 54 percent right now. There are some Democrats in Virginia who are starting to get a little nervous and they're calling the Fairfax Board of Elections and saying, hello, can we get the vote? Let's see what happens. We will watch that one play out. Come down here, battleground Florida.
[22:14:59]
KING: Again, president is starting to inch this one out a little bit, 51 percent to 47.8 percent, but 94 percent. Again, this is Florida. If that holds by Florida standards, that's a blowout, but we'll see. We'll go back four years ago, 49 percent to 48 percent.
One of the things we are seeing, one of the things we should make note of this, we have it earlier, is that the third-party candidates are not getting the votes they did four years ago, so you have winning candidates in states by getting over 50 percent.
The national vote is still right there. Let's go back to Arizona and see if we racked it up at all, up to 73 percent now, 210,000 votes ahead, again 54 percent to 45 percent if you round it up, 49 percent to 45 percent four years ago. Joe Biden, Maricopa County is the difference right now, again the city of Phoenix and the suburbs around.
If you go to Arizona, if you were there 10 years ago and five years ago and five weeks ago, you just know the change that's happening. This is one of the fastest-changing places in America, growing out here in the suburbs, 800,000 votes, just shy of that for Joe Biden right now.
I want to go back and look at the map. Hillary Clinton got 700,000 votes, 702,000 to 703,000 if you round up, Maricopa County four years ago. Again, turnout is up everywhere. Joe Biden has already surpassed that, 77 percent of the vote. That is a fascinating state. One of the questions about American politics is what's changing. Is it just the Trump change? Is it -- if this finishes tonight blue --
BLITZER: A few counties that haven't even reported.
KING: Yes. They got nothing in some of these counties here, Apache County. Again, there's not a ton of votes out here, if you bring it up, 17,000, 8,000. So, Maricopa is 60 percent or more of the vote depending on the turnout.
BLITZER: Yeah.
KING: But it matters. If it gets close, it certainly matters. Every vote counts. I don't mean to discount anybody's vote. Every vote counts. In terms of the swing of the state, this is going to determine most of it and you're at 77 percent. But to your point, when you get this higher, if it's close and you get this higher, that's when you're looking around.
That has been part of the marvel of Donald Trump's winning, is that in places like that, even when he gets beat in the cities, not so much in Arizona, but in some of these other places, again, look at all the red in the middle of the map, right? Not a ton of people live here. But the president runs it up, gets his 6,000 votes here, you know, gets his 14,000 votes here, and you go on and on and on. That's how he does it.
In smaller counties, turnout is high, he runs it up, and so far -- let us come down here, look one more time. It stayed exactly the same, 25,482. South Carolina was blue for a little bit early on. You see that one going back to its DNA, the conservative state there.
Georgia is not as competitive at the moment. Again, 52 percent, though. So, again, you're in this night where you have three different kinds of voting, different states, sometimes is within a state, different counties reporting them in different order. The Democrats were hoping right here to have a closer state but, look, Fulton County still, again, a third of the vote. This is it. This is by far. And so you move around these counties here, you have Cobb here, you have Fulton here, come out here, very slow, one percent here. This is the bulk of the vote in the state.
BLITZER: Georgia potentially could become a lot more competitive because a lot of major democratic counties have not reported yet.
KING: Right, very low, very low percentage here all around the Atlanta metro area. Again, these are the smaller ones here but still eighth of the county. You're looking here. Joe Biden is ahead, 72 percent here. Move closer into Atlanta, 68 percent here. Then you come over here, just one percent.
Again, you go back in time four years ago, Hillary Clinton won pretty big, pretty big here. Joe Biden, many believe, will do even better, A, higher turnout, B, suburban rejection of the president.
So we have a long way to go. We have a long way to go. Maps can be deceptive when you have a big chunk of vote out in the democratic area here. I just want to check down some other democratic areas, about halfway there. Not quite, though. There are more democratic votes to be had there.
Come over to the coast here, 70 percent here, so some more votes but fewer there. So, you wait, you wait and you see. That is a pretty healthy lead but it doesn't mean big city like Atlanta, growing suburbs around Atlanta, you can make up some pretty big map when those votes come in. And we will see when they come in.
BLITZER: I'm curious about Michigan, specifically what percentage of the vote in Detroit has come in.
KING: So we have 30 percent statewide. You come down here and we have less than a third, 28 percent there. We've been through Wayne County on many an election night, too. Sometimes, it goes really late. Sometimes, things get a little frustrating, waiting for the count to come in. I'll just use that word. But 147,000, 113,000, 28 percent.
So you come up here again, now you're going to move up to Oakland County, the suburbs here, about halfway in the count here. This used to be reliably republican territory but it's become increasingly democratic. So here's a question for you, right? Hillary Clinton, 51 percent to 44 percent when you round up the president there, 52 percent to 44 percent if you round up Secretary Clinton, as well.
Right now, Donald trump is doing a little better. So let's see what happens there. See if Michigan -- again, we're early -- very early in the count here. That's what you're watching, right?
[22:19:59]
KING: Democrats, if you win Michigan, Joe Biden has to -- let me move it up a little bit. Joe Biden has to run it up in Detroit and then do well in the suburbs. Again, Macomb County, we're at 35 percent. So don't jump to any conclusions here. This is one of the flips, right? This is one of the flips. Barack Obama carried Macomb County twice. We call them pivot counties. You vote twice for Barack Obama then you flip for Donald Trump. That has Democrats scratching their heads. Why did we lose those voters? Who are those voters?
In Macomb County, they work in the auto industry or they work in related industries like that, blue-collar workers, people who work with their hands. This has been a problem for the Democrats. Joe Biden said he could get them back. We'll see. We got a long way to go there. You don't want to jump to any conclusions.
But it is also important. If you pull Michigan up again and you go back to 2016, you don't see a ton of blue here. If you come back to 2012, this is the difference, right? Can Joe Biden -- can the guy who was number two to Barack Obama on the ticket win back some of these areas that Barack Obama won when he carried these states? Many of them are quite convincingly.
You see there, this is Mitt Romney's birth state. I know he moved to Massachusetts. Now, he's in Utah. This is where he was born. Barack Obama beat him by 10 points.
The question is can Joe Biden get those counties back? We're very early in the count in Michigan right now, a long way to go. So, again, if you're looking at the map from home, if you're a Republican, you say, wow, if you're a Democrat, you say, uh-oh, but we're not done. We got a long way to do.
BLITZER: We certainly do. Let's check in with Jake, Dana and Abby.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Thanks, Wolf. So, we need to caution our viewers out there. It's early.
(LAUGHTER)
TAPPER: Whether you're rooting for Trump or you're rooting for Biden, it's early. We're still counting the votes. I don't know if this is 2016 or 2018.
You might remember in 2018, things looked really bad for Democrats or uncertain early on. But then, you know, after not just midnight struck, but a couple days, you saw that actually it had been a really great night for Democrats. On the other hand, it could be 2016 where things are breaking --
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Right.
TAPPER: -- for President Trump. We don't know. Everyone needs to just take a deep breath.
DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Which is hard. I mean, look --
TAPPER: Yeah. BASH: -- this is a nation that is on edge. So it's understandable. But as you said, as we have been telegraphing as we approached tonight, it could take a while and it is bearing out.
And what I'm hearing from Democrats, in particular, over and over, text after text, let's just wait and see what happens up north, let's wait and see what happens, meaning Michigan, Wisconsin, not as north, further north, Pennsylvania.
PHILLIP: Yeah, I mean, obviously Arizona is still an unanswered question about what's going on there. But this is what happens when you have a lot of battlegrounds. And in this cycle, we had a lot of states that were on the grid in terms of competitive races, where you're going to have tight competitions between President Trump and Joe Biden and we have to wait for all the votes to come in to really know where this thing is headed.
I do think that based on where we are right now, we just -- we're in the choose your own adventure park, we're in the part of the choose your own adventure where we really need the patience, we really need people to just wait until it comes in because it's not going to be an easy, early, quick, night for people. These votes are coming in little by little and it's tight in a lot of these.
TAPPER: Very tight. When the polls would say before the election that Joe Biden was up one or two points in a state but that was within the margin of error, that meant it was a tossup, which is what --
BASH: That's what we're seeing the margin of error playing out, right.
TAPPER: We still don't know about Florida. We still don't know about Georgia. We still don't know about North Carolina. And as we have also been saying, even if you were to give those states, all of them to percent and we are not, we are still waiting for a lot of outstanding vote --
PHILLIP: Mm-hmm.
TAPPER: -- it really does come out to the three states up north, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, also Arizona. Those are the states that the Biden campaign has focused most on, and we still don't know what's going on there.
PHILLIP: Yeah, and, you know, one of the things that you heard a lot from the Trump folks leading up to today is that they knew their job was just to get their people out and just to get them to the polls and ignore all of the public polling that we've all been talking about and looking at.
And, you know, I do think that when you look at the Sun Belt, where we knew that there was elevated turnout, the president is still very competitive in those states, the places that he had to hold on to, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida. He had to keep those states and he's competitive there. The reason for that is because his people showed up today.
BASH: That's exactly right. He needed -- this was a turnout election. It wasn't a persuasion election, meaning there weren't a lot of people out there going, hmm, do I vote for Joe Biden or do I vote for Donald Trump? Pretty much everybody made up their mind. The question is whether or not they were going to get out and vote.
The Trump campaign has an -- in cooperation with the RNC, which has been working on -- you know, what they call their voter vault, since 2004, they have a really stellar operation, and they actually built it in recent years, modelled after Barack Obama's operation because his was so good. That campaign was so good when it came to data.
[22:25:00]
BASH: They updated it more and more. The Democrats even will admit it. We were talking about this before, that they're a little bit slower on that, but they were relying on some of that, but a lot of enthusiasm.
PHILLIP: I would add that for Democrats, the task was even more difficult because they chose for a lot of -- they would say really good reasons not to be on the ground knocking on doors in the way that you might have seen leading up to --
TAPPER: Yeah, because of the pandemic.
PHILLIP: -- the normal cycle because of the pandemic.
BASH: Right.
PHILLIP: So, it -- I mean, there's -- when I talk to Democrats, everyone acknowledges that is a scenario that nobody anticipated, put them a little bit at a disadvantage, but we may see some of that play out in the places where the president was able to get his people out. Maybe he didn't change any minds. But as long as he got his people out, their argument, their state of the case -- their --
TAPPER: Theory of the case.
PHILLIP: -- theory of the case. Sorry, I cannot speak tonight.
TAPPER: Mm-hmm.
PHILLIP: -- is that as long as they do that, they can be competitive, and that's the big question. He had to defend his turf.
TAPPER: So, first of all, you have to give credit to President Trump even when it looked a few weeks ago like this thing was gone and out of his reach. He did work his tail off and get out there and get out to those counties and rally his supporters. And obviously, that has paid off at the very least in making this race so competitive.
And, again, we don't know where it's going to end up. We have no idea. We still have yet to hear from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and we're starting to hear from Arizona.
BASH: Yeah.
TAPPER: But also I think, I just know that there are a lot of people out there who maybe paid attention to the only most Trump-hating pundits out there who were saying for weeks, if not months, that this was going to be a landslide and, you know, as they say, you can't get high on your own supply, right?
(LAUGHTER)
BASH: Do they say that?
TAPPER: You need to be able to listen to everyone and all the pundits, left, right --
BASH: I feel like I'm learning so much about so much tonight, Jake.
(LAUGHTER)
TAPPER: I just think that there are some people out there who are disappointed.
BASH: You're right.
TAPPER: Thought this thing was going to be over when --
BASH: And Biden --
PHILLIP: He's an incumbent president --
TAPPER: Right.
BASH: -- who has inherited --
BASH: But not just that. He has remarkably enthusiastic, loyal supporters all across the country.
TAPPER: Right. But again, we're still waiting to hear.
BASH: We are.
TAPPER: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona. Wolf?
BLITZER: All right, Jake, thank you. We love the commentary. Let's get a key race alert right now. Take a look at this. Arizona right now, 75 percent of the estimated vote is in, and Joe Biden has an impressive lead right now, a lead of more than 208,000 votes, 53.7 percent to 45 percent, 11 electoral votes in Arizona.
More than a third of the vote is in in New Hampshire right now. Biden has a 27,000-vote lead over Trump, 53.8 percent to 44.8 percent.
In Minnesota, more than a third of the vote is in there. Biden has an impressive 285,000-vote lead over Trump, 61.4 percent to 36.6 percent.
In Iowa right now, 19 percent of the vote is in. Biden's lead is at 85,000, 61 percent to 36.9 percent. We got some more states right now. Let's take a look at these other states that are coming in. In Michigan, a third of the vote is now in. Trump is ahead by some 210,000 votes, 54.7 percent to 43.4 percent.
In Pennsylvania, almost a third of the vote is in. Trump is ahead by 179,000 votes, 53.4 percent to 45.2 percent.
In Wisconsin, a third of the vote is in. It's very, very close. Trump is ahead by some 20,000 votes, 50 percent to 48.3 percent.
In Georgia right now, more than half of the vote is in. Trump has a pretty comfortable lead in Georgia of 348,000 votes right now, 55.4 percent.
We have a projection right now. Take a look at this. CNN projects Joe Biden will win in New Mexico right now. Take a look at that. Joe Biden wins in New Mexico, there he is, the winner in New Mexico, that's five electoral votes in New Mexico.
So let's see where the Electoral College map stands right now. Right now, with that win in New Mexico, Biden has 94 electoral votes. Trump has 72 electoral votes. The all-important race to 270 needed to win, 94-72 right now, 270 being the magic number. You're elected president if you get 270 votes. What do you see?
KING: You're seeing a map right now that's going to make Democrats nervous which is why we need to emphasize the point that when you see red Pennsylvania, red Michigan, and red Wisconsin, we are very, very, very, very early in the count there.
However, if you look at this map right now, the name of the game if you're Joe Biden is takeaway because Donald Trump, the incumbent president, who won last time.
And so we're not done yet. We're not done yet by any means. Look at North Carolina. The president is stretching a lead out here, 89 percent. It's a modest lead, 42,423, about 49.8 percent to 49 percent. Joe Biden had a lead early on.
[22:30:00]
KING: Donald Trump's Election Day surge puts him back in the lead. Can he hold it? We'll watch that as we play it out. Republicans feel good about that.
We're coming down to Florida now and you look here, 5.6 million for the president, 5.2 million, higher turnout in Florida, a very competitive race. Again, we have to wait. We're going to count some things here. Democrats are not happy, particularly down here in Miami- Dade, 53 percent. Normally you look, you see 53 percent to 46 percent, you think that's great, but that's way below where Hillary Clinton was four years ago.
If you're looking at this map here, the plus side for the Democrats is out here in Arizona where Joe Biden right now is 75 percent of the vote, 54 percent if you round up to 45 percent. That is a big shift from four years ago when the president won it at 49 percent to 45 percent, a four-point race. You see Joe Biden, the Democrat, above 50 percent there.
Let's put this into context. Number one, this was the name of the game in 2016. We're not done. We're not done. We're not done. Some of these states could go on into tomorrow. But as you look at this map, many Democrats say it does raise the scenario many of them are worried about.
An hour or two from now, is the president going to come out and say, I win, if he's still leading in those states? We're not done. That's not how we count. These states will decide who wins their elections. We have a lot of votes to count.
The question is, the name of the game, Wolf, this is where we are right now, 94 to 72. There were no surprises on this map so far. Everything we see filled in is the way we thought it would go coming into the night. There are also, though, if you think about out here, where we haven't counted votes yet because it's early in the night, people are still voting, we don't think there are any more surprises out that way, if you will.
Nevada was the one Clinton state the Trump campaign made a run. We'll see. We expect that to stay democratic, which is why things get interesting now. Again, we haven't called some of these close states but this is the calculation in both of the campaign war-rooms. This is where Donald Trump started.
Joe Biden has to look at this map and say, what do I take away to get him below 270 and to get me to 270? So, Joe Biden wanted Florida. Not yet. We'll see. We'll keep counting. It doesn't look that way. He wanted North Carolina. Donald Trump has a lead right now. We will see. We will get to the finish line.
Georgia, we got a lot of votes out. The Democrats had these targets of opportunity. Can we get these states? Can we get a surge? We'll watch Georgia. We're still missing a lot of democratic votes. Texas is filling in red. Again, we haven't called it. We have a ways to go. But it's filling in red right now.
So, so far, so far, you look like you're getting that, right? We're not done. We're not done in Arizona yet, either. As you project it out, so, OK, now you got the president at 295. If you're not going to get Ohio, haven't called it yet, we're waiting, there is possibility some votes out, North Carolina or Florida, where do you go?
Then we come back, number one, let's assume for the sake of argument Joe Biden gets a congressional district here. It is hard to see if there's a Trump Election Day surge. The president went out here and did a rally. But the Democrats are pretty confident they're going to pick up the one, the second district of Nebraska. Let's do that for the hypothetical. We'll watch as it plays out.
Then you're at 293-245. So then we come down to where we ended four years ago. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, right? So Joe Biden -- one, two, gets to the finish line. You don't absolutely need Pennsylvania. If you win Maine's second congressional district, if you win Nebraska's second congressional district and you hold Arizona, you can do it without Florida, without Georgia, without North Carolina, without Ohio, and without Pennsylvania. But you have to win these two.
But if you can win this as well, then it's game over. We've always known if Joe Biden could rebuild the blue wall, forgive me, Donald Trump would pay for it. The question is can he make it happen, when right now, if you look over here, again, we're early, democrats get -- this is where Democrats get nervous because they remember 2016.
We cannot emphasize enough. We're nowhere close to the finish line in any of those states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. We need to count votes and some of those counts could take until tomorrow. But we talked earlier about Joe Biden having the more menu options. Some of those menu options appear to be closing. We're not done yet.
We can't take Florida away, still red over there, North Carolina, we'll see on Georgia. Joe Biden had many menu options coming into the night. That list is narrowing, which is why you get into intense times.
BLITZER: I want to check in with David Chalian. He is taking a very close look at the vote in Pennsylvania right now. What are you seeing over there?
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yeah, just exactly what John was talking about. I know it's red on the map right now, but we got to make sure we count the votes here. So, what you see is you see Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in Pennsylvania with 32 percent of the vote in right now.
Let's look at what we know about the early vote. Of that vote that's in, only 18 percent of it currently is early vote. And we know that Joe Biden is doing much better in the early vote. We expect that 18 percent to go all the way up to 45 percent. So there's a ton more early votes still to be counted here and that could benefit Joe Biden in Pennsylvania.
We just have to wait to see that early absentee mail vote come in and be counted, Wolf.
BLITZER: Very interesting. We're watching all these states.
[22:35:00]
BLITZER: This is a night like none other because of all the early voting. A record number of early voting that we've seen in some states taking a lot longer to count that early vote.
KING: Right. Look, the battleground states are always complicated to begin with. Remember Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin four years ago. Remember Florida four years ago. Even North Carolina for a while we were looking at it. It's always complicated, anyway. They are all the more complicated this time and all the more difficult, especially for partisans who want their guy to win. Let's talk about what David was talking about. We come down here, Philadelphia County, Philadelphia City, and counties around it. This is by far is 12 percent or more depending on turnout. The vote in Pennsylvania is 22 percent.
So when I pull this back out, you see the state red. OK. Again, you always want to be leading. At any point in the race, you like to be leading. But it's just -- it's not contextual in the sense that we have nothing here.
Let us just come over here in Montgomery County, 16 percent. The suburban collar around Philadelphia is the name of the game. Democrats have to run up a huge lead. You come over here. Bucks County is the more conservative of the suburban counties around here. Go back four years ago and you'll see this one, 48 percent to 47 percent, Bucks County four years ago.
The challenge for Joe Biden is to try to run it up a little bit more, 50 percent to 48 percent, the same more or less. Again, 12 percent there, 16 percent of the estimated vote here, Chester County, 25 percent. Come back to Delaware County, 16 percent.
So this is where the overwhelming bulk of the votes, the way you get started in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia and the suburban collar around it. I'll just bring this up a little bit. We don't have many votes. We're still in the single digits or early teens. We got a long way to go.
Then you come over, you move over the middle of the state, again, 52 percent here, Harrisburg. The president, we know, we know the president is going to run it up in places like this. You know, you get these counties here, 95 percent, you know, of the vote in here. President has 70, 68 percent. The president has 82 percent. Not a lot of people live here. Again, this is how the president does it, in the smaller more rural counties, he runs it up big.
The challenge, again, is we talked about Joe Biden, not leading in Ohio right now but more competitive than Hillary Clinton. Can he be more competitive in places like Washington County? Right now, it is 60.9 percent.
One that a lot of people are looking at, there was a Trump rally here just the other day, Westmoreland County, 28 percent, 63 percent to 36 percent if you round it up, 64 percent to 33 percent.
It is pretty close, we see Biden maybe a little bit higher than Hillary Clinton four years ago. That could matter if it is very close. Wolf, we'll watch again, a long way to count.
BLITZER: Quick break. We have a lot more coming up right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[22:40:00]
BLITZER: We have some more projections right now. Let us check in New Hampshire. CNN projects that Joe Biden will win the state of New Hampshire, will win its four electoral votes. Biden wins in New Hampshire.
There are several states now where CNN projects that Trump is winning, four states specifically. CNN projects that Trump will win in Louisiana. He beats Biden in Louisiana, wins eight electoral votes in Louisiana.
CNN projects that Donald Trump will win in Kansas, beats Biden in Kansas, six electoral votes there. There is another six electoral votes in Utah. Trump wins in Utah. That's a CNN projection. And there is another five electoral votes in Nebraska. Three out of the five, excuse me, three out of the five electoral votes in Nebraska, two of them are still based on a congressional district, three out of five in Nebraska.
Here's where the Electoral College map stands right now. Very, very close. Look at this. Biden has 98 Electoral College votes. Trump has 95. You need 270 to win the presidency, 98-95. Look how close it is right now.
Actually, we have a key race alert right now. Let's check in some of the numbers coming in from Michigan. Thirty-seven percent of the vote is in. Trump still maintains a 235,000-vote lead in Michigan, 54.8 percent to 43.4 percent, 37 percent of the vote is in.
Thirty-three percent of the vote is in Pennsylvania. Trump has a 236,000-vote lead in Pennsylvania, 54.3 percent to 44.3 percent. Thirty-seven percent of the vote is in Wisconsin. It's close, 25,000- vote lead for Trump over Biden, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent.
In Georgia, 58 percent of the vote is in. Trump looks like has a pretty comfortable lead of 387,000 votes, 55.7 percent to 43.1 percent in those states. Let's take a look at some more states right now. In Arizona right now, 75 percent of the vote is in. Biden looks like he has a relatively comfortable 208,000-vote lead over Trump, 53.7 percent to 45 percent.
In Minnesota, 37 percent of the vote is in. Biden there has looks like a pretty comfortable nearly 300,000-vote lead over Trump, 60.7 percent to 37.2 percent. In Iowa right now, a quarter of the vote is in. Biden has a 76,000-vote lead over Trump, 57.4 percent to 41 percent.
Let's go back to John King at the magic wall. So, let's take a look at the Electoral College map right now. No surprises at all. So far, 98 for Biden, 95 for Trump.
KING: And so now you're getting into the battleground states as we flip it out. Again, you need the building blocks to get to 270. First, you got to get to 100. Both candidates are right knocking on the door of 100 right now.
The key point is no surprises. In the state so far, the Trump campaign hope to flip New Hampshire. That hasn't happened. There's nothing on here just yet the Biden campaign hoped to flip. These were all pretty reliably red states. Everything is coming in as you'd like. Colorado, New Mexico, Utah.
The question is, will there be any surprises, right? So at the moment, you're looking at this map, both campaigns, this is their basic building blocks. The question is when you come back here and again you start to look at this map, what is it that Joe Biden hoped to change? He thought it was possible, thought it was possible he could flip Florida. We're still waiting on a lot of votes in Georgia, comfortable lead for the president right now.
North Carolina, narrow lead for the president, but the president has overtaken. The whole challenge was there will be an Election Day surge? We'll see if it holds up. Same thing happened here, early lead for Joe Biden. This is the anomaly of 2020. Mail-in votes counted, Democrats build an early lead, Election Day vote gets counted, and Republicans come back. We saw it here. Saw it here.
The question is does it hold up? We're not done yet. Joe Biden thought it might be possible to flip here in a big wave election. Democrats had their hopes up that this was a statement election. Again, we're not done with Texas yet. We are still counting votes there. We don't see it yet. We don't see it yet.
You're back to, OK, if there's not a big map-changing, game-changing election, what does it come down to? Then we get back to here. And we're nowhere close, nowhere close in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
So right now, right now, if you're looking at the map and you're thinking, what might Joe Biden flip? Right now, this is -- we're not done with it yet, but there, that gets the president down some, but then to get him down more, we'll see.
If you mount a comeback in Florida, that changes everything. If you mount a comeback in North Carolina, that changes everything. But if you're looking at the numbers right now, you're back into this calculation up here, Wolf. For Joe Biden, the blue wall was why Hillary Clinton lost. And if Joe Biden is going to win, he's going to change some of those.
BLITZER: David Chalian is getting some insight into what's going on in Michigan right now. What do you see?
CHALIAN: This is the state at play, Michigan. You see Donald Trump's lead here, 1.1 million to Joe Biden's 907,000. Thirty-seven percent of the estimated vote is in in Michigan right now. But here's what we know about the early vote, OK? Of that 37 percent that's in, 17 percent of that current vote is early vote.
[22:45:01]
CHALIAN: We expect the share of the early vote to go up. We expect at the end of the night 55 percent of the overall vote in Michigan to be early vote and we know that Joe Biden is doing much better in the early vote.
We also know we have almost no early vote in Wayne County, Detroit, big democratic areas. Very, very little early vote in Macomb. No early vote at all in Kent. Those two have been sort of battleground counties. So, as that share of the early vote goes up, the Biden campaign is hoping he can start to have room here to overtake that lead that Donald Trump currently holds in Michigan, Wolf.
BLITZER: Very interesting, indeed. John, let's take a closer look at Michigan right now. That is a key battleground state. Trump won it very narrowly four years ago. Democrats are hoping to win it this time.
KING: Let me start with your point. Trump won it very narrowly four years ago. You see that big lead right there. Even if the president wins Michigan, we have no expectation. It would be by such a wide margin. That is why again you look at certain things and you realized this is an election like no other.
We are counting votes in different sequences. So we have to be careful as we go. If you're the Republicans, Trump campaign, looking at the map, you think it's great. Remember let's come in here, as David noted, Wayne County, about 28 percent. This is Detroit, suburbs around it. By far, about, you know, 18 percent of the vote, 18 percent in a high turnout election, can be a little higher than that. 147,000 right there.
Let's just go back in time, you know, 519,000 votes for Hillary Clinton four years ago. Democrats were disappointed. Turnout was down in Wayne County compared to 2012. Remember, so you have 519,000 then, this is a higher turnout election. We know that. Maybe the president wins Michigan, but the numbers are going to go up from that.
And so when you see that's where you are now, you know that everybody just needs to slow and we need to count more votes here. So let's move up to Oakland County. Again, Joe Biden leading, we think a little bit more of the vote in here, but again, 233,875 leading.
Let us go back and look at it here. Again, we think turnout is higher this year. Secretary Clinton was well above that in this county. We need to wait. We need to let the vote come in. Let's move over to Macomb County. The president carried this county four years ago. Again, key, blue collar, laboratory for so-called Reagan Democrats, political scientists study it. The president won it 53 percent with 224,000-plus votes.
We come over here now, again, he's leading. It's a higher turnout election. We're only at 143,000 votes. We just need to slow down and let them count the votes in Michigan.
Again, there's a possibility we don't get them all tonight. You walk through, just look at the map here, come back to 2016, you see over here, for example, Hillary Clinton won along the border here. It's a smaller county but you just come back and look in 2020, the president is leading there right now, but again, 43 percent of the vote in.
I want to move around a little bit and see what the votes are. Come to Kent County, David mentioned this. This is Grand Rapids. It's red right now. Democrats think they can do some business here. Come back into 2016. You see it was 48 percent to 45 percent. This is another one of those suburban battlegrounds we're looking at.
The president won the suburbs narrowly four years ago. This is a textbook case of that, 48 percent to 45 percent. Democrats think this time it will be different. In the vote so far, about half counted, 54 percent to 43 percent. So we'll see. This one stays red throughout the night. That bodes well for the president in Michigan.
We have a long way to go. It's the same story when you shift over here to Wisconsin, about 40 percent in. I just want to come down to look at the major thing here. Milwaukee, you see Joe Biden with fewer than 100,000 votes. That tells us, Wolf, a lot of counting still to do. We just all need to be patient, relax, and get through it.
BLITZER: We certainly will. We got some more projections right now. Let's take a look at this. CNN projects that Joe Biden will win the state of Illinois, win 20 electoral votes in the state of Illinois, beats Trump in Illinois. Trump beats Biden in Missouri, 10 electoral votes in Missouri. Trump wins in Missouri.
Let's take a look at the Electoral College map right now. And here's where it stands. On the road to 270 needed to win, Biden now has 118, Trump has 105, 118 to 105, 270 the magic number.
The presidential race is moving to the west right now. We're counting down to 11:00 p.m. Eastern. The biggest electoral prize of the night, we are talking about California. The polls are about to close there as well as in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington State. Those states have 78, 78 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win. Joe Biden is counting on blue California to push him closer to 270.
Let's get a key race alert right now. Let's start off in Michigan right now. Thirty-eight percent of the estimated vote is in in Michigan. Trump still maintains his 240,000-vote lead over Biden, 54.7 percent to 43.4 percent, lots of votes outstanding, though, in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, 37% of the estimated vote is in. Trump has 344,000-vote lead over Biden, 55.9 percent to 42.7 percent.
[22:50:03]
BLITZER: In Wisconsin, 40 percent of the estimated vote is in. Trump has a narrow lead, 21,000-vote lead over Biden, 49.9 percent to 48.4 percent. In Georgia, 59 percent of the estimated vote is in. Trump seems to have comfortable 372,000 vote lead over Biden, 55.4 percent to 43.4 percent.
Let us take a look at some more states. We are getting some more key race alerts. In Arizona right now, 75% of the vote is in. Biden has 208,000 vote lead over Trump in Arizona, 53.7 percent to 45 percent.
In Minnesota, 38 percent of the vote is in. Biden seems to have a pretty comfortable 290,000, almost 291,000 vote lead over Trump in Minnesota. In Iowa right now, 42 percent of the estimated vote is in. Biden has 112,000 vote lead over Trump, 56.4 percent to 41.8 percent.
Let's walk over to John King at the magic wall. We are watching the states. You're looking at counties over there. You see what's going on. But go ahead and tell us.
KING: I was just doing some matching up to try to see where the president is overperforming and underperforming, looking at different places. It's early in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. We are just trying to get deep in to study a little bit. That is what I do when I get a little chance to study. Go into states and take a look around and study.
So where are we right now? If you look right here, so you got Illinois, reliably democratic state, has been a long time. But when you're doing your building blocks, you like the big ones. So you like to take those out. New York, Illinois, Joe Biden's column gets him up to 118, the president at 105.
You think about the bigs, right? We are not here. We have not called these states. But I just want to say, you know, early on in the night, the Democrat are thinking, can we get Florida, can we get Texas.
Well, those are the two bigs and two reliably -- normally reliably red bigs. We have not called these states. I am just walking through. The president leads there right now. The president leads there right now. You just see what happens when you win the big ones. You see how quickly the map changes.
So that is what is important from the perspective. If the president holds that one as well, that gets you up. If the president holds North Carolina, you start moving up, the bigger states, the double digits, if you will, big double digits here, 30 plus, 20 plus, 15, just moving up the math when you do the big ones.
That's what they're looking at the Trump campaign right now. If we hold Texas and they think they will, we hold Florida and they think they will, we're not done, we're not done. This is just what they think. North Carolina, if pulled ahead, it is close. We have to count still. It is same with Ohio. We are still counting votes.
But as you see that happen, you see the Election Day surge pull you ahead, you think it's going to continue. It's not guaranteed. That's what they think.
You know what? You wouldn't get a lot of pushback from the Biden campaign. They are still hoping the votes come back. But if you start looking at the map now, you will start thinking, OK, this is a more traditional map, which again gets us back to where we began or where we ended four years ago. How did I do that? That was good.
It gets you. There you go. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, this is where this night now looks like. A lot of us thought this would come down to this and it certainly looks like it's going to again. We're not done. You see Joe Biden with -- I'm going to glance over shoulder. Yes, still leading a little bit in Iowa. You see a lead in Montana. We don't expect this to hold up. But we will see.
You get surprised sometimes. It is right now in the map you're looking at. This would be the only flip right now. That is the only flip we see for Joe Biden to get him up. But, you know, it's easier to do it more quickly if you switch over here to the president's map.
Flip, we think so far, we're not done, is this. We believe so far the president is holding down here, which gets you back. Arizona, plus the Clinton states, Arizona gets Joe Biden to 243. How do you get to 270? You could get one here, if you carry Maine. But then you need more.
If that get you to 244, say for sake of argument, you get one of these, we are still waiting on two of those districts there, let us just say you get one of them, then you're looking here at 245. What do you need? Do the math. You need 25. That would get you knocking on the door. That's 20. This is the state of all these three states in the blue wall, one the Trump campaign feels confident about. That would be enough.
Michigan and Wisconsin would get Joe Biden to 271, if he got these two congressional districts plus Arizona. Math gets interesting if the president can hold, bring it out here. Sorry, got to fill them all in. That's OK. Fill them in, come back.
President does that, you think one congressional district could decide American presidential election, doesn't happen that often, but it's possible. This is where, again, if the possibility, the menu at the beginning of the night (ph), maybe we get Florida, in a dream world we get Texas, maybe Ohio is competitive, we think we can get North Carolina.
At the moment, none of that is there. We're not done. It is possible it comes back. At the moment, none of that is there. Now, your number crunchers are getting into the tougher math, more difficult math, and the different scenarios.
[22:54:57]
KING: Trust me, you're calling into the congressional district, they're calling in the congressional district, and they're calling in a fury into these because now we are into tensed time, tensed time, in both campaigns.
BLITZER: And there are always three states, the so-called blue wall states --
KING: Right.
BLITZER: -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. There's still plenty of outstanding votes there.
KING: Plenty of votes. Plenty of votes. And again, we're going to say this repeatedly and some people at home might not like that we say it repeatedly --
BLITZER: A lot of the early votes is outstanding too where Democrats will do well.
KING: It is, which is why as I come back over here, as you're watching the map throughout the night in any election, again, we are 10:55. At any presidential election that's close, we're just getting started. We are just getting started. That would be the case four years ago, 2004, pick your close election, that's the case.
This year is even more different because of the three different ways of voting and the different ways each state is handling that, right? The main-in vote, the impersonal early vote, and so, here you go, we're going to look at it.
Forty percent in, you see that big lead for Donald Trump. If you're a Republican, you have every reason to be happy about that. But you also need to have the context. You have to have the context. We come down here. This is Montgomery County, one of the big suburbs around Philadelphia, 29 percent, you go into Philadelphia, which is the biggest basket of votes, predominantly Democratic. Turn out here is absolutely key. We'll see if Democrats can deliver. But you're only 20 percent of the vote roughly there.
We move out here, Bucks County, this is more competitive suburban area but you're still at 12 of the vote. Move out here, Chester County, this is where most of the votes are in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia and the suburbs that surround it, 30 percent.
So, you just have a long way to go. And we know -- David Chalian told us earlier, a lot of the votes that are missing are the early votes, which we believe are disproportionately Democrat. And even if we were just counting for one set of votes, even if we were just waiting for all the votes counted today, what we have from this part of the state is so low that you just can't make conclusions. You just can't. We have to wait and see and it looks good -- the map looks at first glance, the Republicans, but we're just nowhere near the finish line.
Nor are we in Michigan, 39 percent of the estimate, 54 to 43. You think that's a big number. If you remember how close this was four years ago, 10,000 votes, right? Ten thousand votes decided this state four years ago. So, it is just unrealistic.
Even if the president is having a very good night, it's unrealistic that he is going to win Michigan by 238,000 votes. If he wins Michigan again, maybe it's by more than 10,000 votes, but it's not going to be by 238,000 votes. We just know that. So, when you see that number, that's when you know this is the anomaly of 2020 and how we count votes and we need to be patient.
BLITZER: Let's take a look at Arizona.
KING: Let's go out west because this would be -- so far, this would be the flip. This would be a change. We're up to 75 percent, 208,000 vote lead and some change there, gain, 54 percent to 45 percent. If you go back, not since Bill Clinton has a Democrat won this state.
And in 2016, not a huge win by any means. This is why the Democrats wanted to compete this year. Arizona is trending demographically and the Democrats think this year demographics plus the suburban revolt is what will get you there, 1.2 million votes won it four years ago. If you come up here now, Joe Biden already has that and we're still counting votes, again, turnout up across America in this election. That looks good. It doesn't mean we're done where you have to count them. Let's just look at Maricopa County, 77 percent. If this holds up, if the trend lines hold up, this is where 60 percent plus of your votes are. If you keep a 10-point margin in Maricopa County with high turnout like this, you're going to win the State of Arizona, but we're not done yet as we do it.
But as we go through the race to 270 and you're Joe Biden, Donald Trump had 306 last time. We need to take away. It's simple, just do the subtraction. And where do you get them? Arizona would be a start, an important start. It's protection, if you will. It's a safety blanket. But that's it. That's the name of the game. It was four years ago and it sure looks like it's about to be for the rest of tonight and into tomorrow. That's the guess. That's the guess, Wolf, as you go through it.
So, we just come back out again. I just want to look at this one again because getting a lot of texts and e-mails from Republicans and Democrats saying, whoa, what's happening in Virginia? Again, 153,000 votes ahead, 52 to 46, that's actually a smaller lead than we saw earlier in the night. I just want to keep coming in here. And we're still waiting. It's not that we could hop in the car and be there in 45 minutes.
But Fairfax County, Virginia, there's something is going on. In Fairfax County, Virgnia, we only have 28 percent of the vote and it's been that way for a long time. This is a giant basket of Democratic votes. If you follow (inaudible), if you follow Mark Warner's (ph) Senate campaign a couple of years ago, that's the way it's gone. All of a sudden a big dump of votes come in, but we're going to keep watching that because it's interesting.
I just want to check down here in North Carolina again. 50 to 49. When you round up, 94 percent in, 69,000 votes. Again, Republicans feel good about this, but we'll keep counting and see what happens in North Carolina.
One more time, I just want to look at the normally the closest of all battlegrounds, 94 percent in Florida, 51 to 47 there in Florida. Again, you're looking at map. There's a lot of red, including in places that the Biden campaign was hopeful it could turn blue. You see Iowa is blue right now. We're not sure it will last. It's competitive though. It's a fun one to watch as we go through the night.
Still a lot of math to do, Wolf, and a lot of anxiety both campaigns right now.
[23:00:00]
BLITZER: Yeah. They are nervous on both sides. Voting is about to end in four states out west. That includes the biggest prize of all. We're talking about California.
