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CNN Live Event/Special

Nail-Biter Election Comes Down To Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin; Senate And House Election Updates. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired November 04, 2020 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[05:30:00]

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Every vote is cast. And remember, in 2018 midterms, it was initially just Democrats' gains were dismissed as sort of a blue trickle -- blue trickle.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: And as the days went on it became a --

AVLON: It became a blue tsunami in the words of our own Harry Enten, and 40 House seat pickups.

I'm not saying that underlying dynamic is true but everyone needs to keep their powder dry as every vote is counted in these critical districts.

I'll just point out Green Bay, which is in Brown County -- one of the things we're waiting for. Its city announced that they had 85 percent participation and their absentee ballots were two to one there in- person, and that's the kind of thing we're waiting for. I'm not saying it's not razor-tight -- it is -- but those are some important facts as we wait for the other votes to come in and be counted.

LEMON: I've got a lot I want to ask you S.E., but do you want to respond to what he said?

S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, listen, everywhere this race is close it is excruciatingly close and this was kind of always how it was going to be. I mean, those of us who felt chastened by the 2016 polls and projections knew this was not going to be the landslide that team Biden and others -- poll watchers predicted it could be -- patience.

LEMON: Yes.

CUPP: You know, everyone in this room at this table was on an editorial call from CNN. CNN told us as we are reporting this to be patient. We've told viewers and voters be patient. This is going to be --

LEMON: Things will look different at different points of the night, yes.

CUPP: -- to be unpacked slowly. The fact that Donald Trump can't be patient -- I mean, who expected that he could sit through this patiently, politely, obediently as the results came in. I mean, of course, he wasn't going to.

That doesn't mean that we should hyperventilate just yet. It's close -- it was going to be. We have to let this play out.

LEMON: As this was playing out, S.E., I asked you -- I said what was the closest margin? What's the narrowest margin you've seen?

Because if you look at Wisconsin at the last count, 8,000 -- let's just say round 8,000 votes --

CUPP: Yes.

LEMON: -- that Biden is in the lead; 270,000, Michigan. So there's a lot to go on there.

But, Nevada, 11,000 votes?

CUPP: Eleven, yes.

LEMON: But it's -- but even one vote ahead is a win.

AVLON: Yes.

LEMON: And that's how --

CUPP: Yes, and we talked and I said the closest margin was 537 -- that magic number from the Florida recount. And man, was that a trauma. Regardless of how you thought it ended up, that was a trauma to go through that. And that was over in November, by the way.

LEMON: Right.

CUPP: That did not go on through January.

This could take some time. We will not know the results today --

ANDREW YANG, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, (D) FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well --

CUPP: -- I don't believe --

LEMON: One second. I want to ask her -- I want to ask you --

CUPP: -- because it is so close in so many places.

LEMON: I want to ask you one more thing. Because the president -- I mean, he -- at the end, he really went out and just -- I mean, he did, what, I think four or five rallies in one day.

CUPP: Yes.

LEMON: He would go to state to state to state. Do you think that the -- obviously, the pollsters -- and this may be an obvious question -- or that just that we haven't found a way, meaning all of us in the news business --

CUPP: Yes.

LEMON: -- and the polling, to quantify what the rallies -- what those rallies do or did --

CUPP: Yes.

LEMON: -- for this president?

CUPP: There's been a lot of dissecting of polls over the past four years and there are a number of problems that we can't seem to get around. One is weighting -- weighting issues. Weight -- W-E-I-G-H-T.

LEMON: Yes.

CUPP: Another is the methodology -- calling people on landline phones. I don't have a landline phone anymore, right --

LEMON: I don't have one of them.

CUPP: -- who answer their phones. I don't remember the last time I answered this phone.

And so, we're trying to figure it out. And how the rallies are reflected in the polls is yet another thing. Again, I want to caution against calling the death of polling just yet. This isn't over and it could end up looking a little bit more like the polls did --

LEMON: I don't disagree --

CUPP: -- when it's -- when it's done.

LEMON: I don't disagree with you on that. I'm just saying --

CUPP: Yes.

LEMON: -- what happened towards the end. Him getting out there and really rallying people to go to the polls day of. I don't know if the polls even figured out -- or the polling -- or the pollsters figured out how to quantify that.

CUPP: Well, even in the media we talk about that as if --

LEMON: Yes.

CUPP: -- well, he's just speaking to his bubble. He's just speaking to his people. And so that might not really have an effect on the rest.

But as we're seeing in some of these purple districts --

LEMON: But, S.E., I think the pandemic -- CUPP: -- it might.

LEMON: -- put a different -- cast a different --

AVLON: Yes.

CUPP: Absolutely, absolutely. But --

AVLON: And, in fact --

CUPP: -- that's why it's really hard to parse it out.

AVLON: And there was polling suggesting that some of the rallies were actually alienating folks because they thought it was dangerous --

CUPP: Exactly.

AVLON: -- and disrespectful.

Look, you now, S.E. made the point there's been a lot of sort of forensics into polling and what went wrong in 2016. Clearly, not enough --

CUPP: Yes.

AVLON: -- because all of the polling we've heard is consistently outside the margin of error -- a lot of swing states. Now, there's always some noise but what we see is clearly that this is going to be tighter.

Now again, in 2018, when all the votes were counted, it validated a lot of the polling. And that's why everyone's got to keep their powder dry. Every vote needs to be counted.

YANG: But you saw a turnout spike around the country, even in places he didn't rally. And so, I think one of the things that surprised me was that you thought higher turnout would favor voters who are coming out because they were animated against Trump. But it turns out he had much deeper reservoirs of support all over the country than you might have anticipated.

[05:35:05]

When you talk about Florida -- the 537 votes -- I mean, the specter that's hanging over us is that Al Gore actually conceded because he felt like that was better for the country. And it's hard to imagine Donald Trump conceding over 500, 1,000, 10,000 votes.

This is the scenario that many Democrats were trying to avoid by having a clearer path to victory than something that's going to take place over a number of days.

LEMON: But I want to reiterate what you said and what we have all been saying, and what CNN has been saying and what we said on the call that throughout the day and morning that things would change.

AVLON: Yes.

LEMON: Sometimes it would be -- you know, show more support for the president, sometimes it would show more support for the former vice president, and that's exactly how it's playing out.

Before, I think Democrats were saying oh my gosh, I'm concerned -- I'm really, really, really concerned, even though they still are. But then Wisconsin came back into play, and then Nevada came back into play. But still, it's very slim. And then you still have Michigan out there.

So we're following these battleground states -- Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. It is all very close at this point but guess what? It can still change.

AVLON: Yes.

LEMON: Still no clear winner at this point and it's 5:00 in the morning -- almost 6:00 the day after Election Day.

Don't go anywhere. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:40:27]

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: All right, we have another key race alert for you. If you're just waking up on the east coast, things are in play this morning -- most notably, most recently, Nevada. This had been somewhat of an assumption for Biden for most of the evening into this morning.

Don't look at the six electoral votes and shrug your shoulders. We're down to every electoral vote making a key difference in the analysis.

Right now, the margin is only 9,200 votes, OK? Eighty-five percent of the vote is estimated in.

There is a chunk in the biggest county -- obviously, Clark County, home to Las Vegas. It is believed to be big for Democrats in general. It's supposed to be a 10-point margin they want there. They don't have one. So, 49.4-48.6. We're watching it.

The way the rest of the vote that is outstanding comes in and what kind of vote it is can completely change the picture this morning for the presidential election.

Next key race alert for you. We've been watching Wisconsin and Michigan, obviously. Michigan is still a big question mark. We'll get to why in a second.

Wisconsin has been where the game has been afoot this morning in the early-morning hours. Electoral votes, 10; 7,300 hundred votes. It's come down again. It was at 90-something hundred -- 9,000-something -- now, 49.2-49.0. Eighty-nine percent of the vote is estimated.

Milwaukee has come in. That is the Democrat stronghold. So, what about the rest of the areas and the mail-in vote? What is the

breakdown in percentage? We don't know. The answer to that will make all the difference.

It takes us to Michigan. Sixteen electoral votes, 200,000 ahead. Now, here -- now it just dropped a little bit there -- 207,000 -- a 4,000- vote shift -- 51.4-46.8. Seventy-nine percent of the vote estimated in.

However, different than Wisconsin. Why? The Democratic strongholds are not in, in Michigan, so the remaining vote there a big x-factor.

Let's go to the magic wall with Phil Mattingly.

Nevada and Pennsylvania, which we're not talking about right now because they're behind the ball on their counting --

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

CUOMO: -- they will receive votes until the ninth and 10th. Nevada will accept mail-in votes until the 10th by state law -- not something that was just decided by a court. This was what they want their rule to be. It will matter.

Pennsylvania -- we're not talking about them right now but we will -- and they are going to count ballots that come in postmarked by Election Day to the ninth -- Friday. That will matter.

OK, state of play. Nevada or Wisconsin, what do you want?

MATTINGLY: Well, I kind of want to start up top first because the shift in Nevada is important.

CUOMO: Yes.

MATTINGLY: The shift in Nevada is important for a number of different reasons and I want to explain why. You know, we need to keep an eye on the pathways throughout the course of the night. We'll keep dipping in when we get new vote -- no question about it -- and I'll break all that down for you in a minute.

But let's go through a pathway right now and that pathway starts with you presume Alaska goes to President Trump, right?

CUOMO: Yes.

MATTINGLY: You presume Maine ends up going to Vice President Biden.

CUOMO: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Maine, too, as a toss-up. It's one electoral vote. We don't know where that's going to end up right now.

You say North Carolina, it's narrowed -- it's narrowed over the course of the last 10 hours --

CUOMO: We'll give it to Trump.

MATTINGLY: -- but we'll give it to Trump just to play the game here.

CUOMO: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Arizona, right now, leaning towards Biden based on where things stand. And throughout the course of the night, because Joe Biden has held the lead and a pretty decent lead in the state of Nevada, we've given him the state of Nevada as we try and game out how things could go.

If you have this set right now with Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin -- the four states that haven't been decided -- 244 electoral votes to 231 electoral votes -- Joe Biden's pathway -- he's leading in Wisconsin. Give him Wisconsin. Give him Pennsylvania.

All of the sudden --

CUOMO: No, give him Michigan. Give him Michigan instead of Pennsylvania. I'll tell you why in a second.

MATTINGLY: Yes. And he's right at 270.

CUOMO: All right, and here's why I say that and that's why that x- factor -- that delegate -- that electorate up there in Maine will become interesting.

Pennsylvania is going to be the biggest test of the mail-in vote ratio disparity.

MATTINGLY: Right.

CUOMO: That is a yawning lead that the president has in Pennsylvania.

MATTINGLY: It's big.

CUOMO: And not only do you have to have a huge outstanding vote in Pennsylvania, but it has to break in phenomenal fashion --

MATTINGLY: Yes.

CUOMO: -- for Joe Biden.

We haven't really seen that in the other vote pickups that we've been seeing with mail-in vote. We saw it in Milwaukee but not the way you'd need to see it in Pennsylvania.

[05:45:02]

MATTINGLY: So let's go in there. We'll get -- we'll get back to this in a second --

CUOMO: All right.

MATTINGLY: -- and I'll kind of explain the importance of Nevada. Although as you noted, a lot of -- the expectation is a lot of what's outstanding in Nevada right now is Clark and it's mail and that's supposed to break.

Here's kind of the corollary to Pennsylvania as it currently stands right now, and it would be Milwaukee County, right? It would be Milwaukee County, which we saw -- I'll even pull it up here.

CUOMO: It made a big difference.

MATTINGLY: We saw it come in. It's the reason that this state is currently blue -- narrowly blue -- 7,331 votes, 89 percent reporting. But it was when Milwaukee County came in that this shifted. In fact, I can pull that up right now. You go back to --

CUOMO: Now it said 95 percent reporting there but the clerk told us on the phone not too long ago --

MATTINGLY: This is right.

CUOMO: -- they are all in, OK?

MATTINGLY: Yes. That this -- the margin grew tremendously. The topline for Biden grew tremendously.

And I wanted to give you the corollary here in Pennsylvania. Now, I'm not saying this is going to make up 677,000 votes. That's a huge, huge vote total.

However, take a look at where there's big Democratic vote outstanding. Allegheny County, only 70 percent reporting. Look at that margin. It's likely to get bigger.

CUOMO: So there's 510 or so thousand votes there. So, 30 percent would be like 150,000 votes.

MATTINGLY: Right -- and expect the margin to grow. This was Hillary Clinton's margin back in 2016. It might not match it. Maybe he's undershooting. But expect it to grow and if it's heavily mail it could grow even more.

The broader point here is the big counties that are outstanding right now are Democratic counties. This went to Hillary Clinton by 21 points. Joe Biden with a big lead right now.

This, right now, currently red, is a Democratic county. It will likely, when mail comes in, flip over to Joe Biden.

The point here that I'm trying to make is the corollary in Pennsylvania -- what Democrats are saying -- why they have hope. Why they believe that there's a pathway, even though it's 677,000 votes, is that it's more Milwaukee County than it is red counties where they just have to hope that it's all vote-by-mail and it heavily skews Dems.

So there is a lot of Democratic vote outstanding. That does not necessarily mean Pennsylvania is on the path to flipping.

One place where it does seem like there is a better, quicker, easier pathway to Democrats is the state of Michigan.

Look, we've talked about Wayne County a ton. Obviously, it's a huge county -- still 52 percent outstanding. Eighteen percent of the population lives here and votes here. That will be big when it comes in, and there's a lot that's still outstanding here.

What I want to point out is the other big Democratic stronghold. You know, we talk about Wisconsin and you say well, Milwaukee County was the only real blue county that was still out here.

You can go into Ingham County. This breaks heavy towards Democrats. Only 69 percent reporting right now.

You can move over into Kalamazoo. This breaks towards Democrats. Only 80 percent reporting right now.

So you look at the topline. Again, 200,000 votes, which Donald Trump leads by right now, is not small. It is not small when you have Wayne, when you have Ingham, when you have Kalamazoo. These are Democratic counties. The vote is going to come in Democratic and it will likely come in mail and that will skew even more Democratic, at least based on what we've seen over the course of the night.

So, Michigan -- and look, you just saw they threw it out a little bit more. Now, Donald Trump up by 200,000 votes. Michigan Democrats feel more comfortable about it because they have pathways that appear to be more clear.

That said, you've said it throughout the course of the night, there are variables here we don't know or understand and that 200,000 votes when Donald Trump won the state by just over 10,000 in 2016, is obviously -- you'd much rather be the guy with 200,000 --

CUOMO: Yes.

MATTINGLY: -- than not.

But what I'm saying is the outstanding vote -- there are more Democratic strongholds that are outstanding. That's going to drop.

CUOMO: Right.

MATTINGLY: The question for Biden is does it drop enough? Does he flip it as that vote comes in over the course of the next couple of hours?

CUOMO: Right. And look, the answer was never to cheat the count, OK? Of course, that's tempting. Of course, the president's about hyperbole and every other mild word you want to put on it because it's Election Day.

But listen, if you're left, right, or reasonable, you want the win to be solid, OK? That's what we need in this country, no question. Somebody's got to win and that's it. You suck it up and we have to find a way forward. So let's do this. Let's take a quick break and then this analysis is making the state of play in the Senate all the more important now. So, we will give you an update on where that stands right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:53:22]

CUOMO: Welcome and thank you for staying with our continued coverage of Election Day here in America. It is so close and that's why the counting must be respected and continued. In fact, the race for president is so close, so open, that the race for the Senate actually comes into much sharper focus here.

So let's go to Boris Sanchez with the state of play on what's happening on the Senate side. What do we know, my friend?

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Chris.

Yes, the big question going into this election is whether Democrats would be able to capitalize on one of the most advantageous maps they've ever had for taking control of the Senate. And right now, things do not appear to be trending in their direction.

Let's take a look at the balance of power. Right now, with one pickup, Republicans holding 47 Senate seats. Democrats with one pickup and those two Independents that caucus with them, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, with 46. And, seven seats remain open.

We'll get to those races in just a second but let's talk about the pickups.

For Democrats, the one they have so far, former two-term governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper winning the Centennial State. He defeats Cory Gardner, blocking Gardner from winning a second term.

I also want to look at Alabama. This bolsters Republicans' chances of holding onto the Senate because the former Auburn head football coach, Tommy Tuberville, defeats Doug Jones to retake for Republicans the seat once held by former attorney general Jeff Sessions.

Let's take a look at other races where Republicans held on to seats that they kept.

[05:55:00]

In Montana, Steve Daines overcoming an onslaught of fundraising by Democrats. He defeats former governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, to retain his seat.

We also have a race that was supposed to be a toss-up and wound up not being competitive at all. Incumbent Joni Ernst, in Iowa, very closely tied her reelection efforts to President Trump and it winds up paying off.

She defeats Theresa Greenfield, who vastly outraised her. She spent about three times as much money on advertising. It doesn't pay off.

A similar story in South Carolina. You'll remember Jaime Harrison, a record-breaking fundraiser. Tonight, Lindsey Graham literally said you wasted your money. He wins reelection in the state of South Carolina and it wasn't very close.

Let's look at where things stand for the races that are still being fought over.

First, in Arizona, the former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, a former congresswoman, Mark Kelly. Right now, he's leading incumbent Martha McSally by about 176,000 votes with 82 percent of the vote in. Democrats have to be happy about that, but I'll show you why the math still doesn't add up favorably for them in just a second.

Here is the most expensive race in Senate history -- more than $240 million spent in North Carolina. It's not paying off for Democrats. Thom Tillis, the incumbent, leading Cal Cunningham right now. Ninety- four percent of the vote in. He leads by a comfortable 96,000-plus vote margin.

Let's go ahead and take a look at Georgia. This race also was supposed to be really competitive according to polling. It doesn't look that way.

David Perdue, the incumbent -- remember, he skipped that last debate with former journalist Jon Ossoff to rally with President Trump. It looks like it's working out in his favor -- 186,000-vote advantage. Ninety-one percent of the vote in.

And the key in this race is that he is .8 over that 50 percent threshold, so he could potentially avoid a runoff, not like what we saw in that other special race -- special Senate election in Georgia. That one going to a runoff on January fifth.

So let's pivot to Maine, a state that could potentially be in play for Democrats even though Susan Collins, right now, has about a six-point advantage over the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, Sara Gideon. She leads by about 34,000 votes.

There's a special rule in Maine. Voters there get to rank their choice of candidate. If nobody crosses that 50 percent threshold in Maine, it becomes a ranked-choice tabulation. So the math here could change and Gideon still has a shot.

But again, the numbers overall are not trending in Democrats' favor.

Let's take a look at Michigan real quick. This is a state -- aside from Alabama, this is really the only other state that Republicans felt they could nab a blue seat. And right now, John James, a favorite of President Trump's and a darling of conservative media -- he's leading incumbent Gary Peters by about 24 -- 247,000 votes. Seventy- eight percent of the vote in.

Of course, we know that a lot of that early voting that tends to favor Democrats, at least in this election, has yet to be counted in Michigan, so we're waiting to see if that may tip the results of this race.

I know I just gave you a ton of numbers, Chris, but these are the most important numbers when it comes to control of the Senate. Right now, only one Democrat is leading in races where Republicans hold Senate seats. And the magic number that they would need to take control of the Senate is four.

So if you're Mitch McConnell tonight, you're probably having breakfast soon enough and maybe pouring a little bit of that champagne into the orange juice, Chris.

CUOMO: Maybe. Maybe he is or maybe he's seeing what the rest of us is, which is this country is divided. We have big problems and the only solution is going to be found in one another. We've got to get back to what we all share and what we all want solutions to because we've never been more vulnerable than we've made ourselves right now.

Boris, thank you very much for that. Thank you for staying on the numbers. When you get something that we need to get out there, let me know. I'll come right to you.

Harry Enten, of course, we didn't see this -- the polls, the whatever. We're learning things about this country once again. We always do in every election. The idea that they'd never had as good a map on the left to take the Senate in recent history, fair point?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST, CNN POLITICS: I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily characterize it that way. Certainly, we thought that they were going to do very well in the Senate, right? They were favored to take control, though it was closer than the presidential race.

The one thing that I will note as Boris was going through that list is how much those Senate races seem to be reflecting the presidential races in those states, right? So like in Michigan, you see Gary Peters, the Democrat, trailing the same as you see Joe Biden currently in Michigan.

We'll have to see what happens when the vote-by-mail comes in. But at this point, we could be heading towards a second consecutive election -- or at least presidential year election in which pretty much all the Senate races went the way the presidential races went.

CUOMO: All right, so let's keep working on it. Let's keep grinding out what the numbers are here. That's what the system demands and that's what democracy demands.