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CNN Live Event/Special

U.S. Presidential Election Still Undecided; Trump Mounts Legal Challenge as Path to Victory Narrows; Trump Mounts Legal Challenges Against Vote-Count; Razor-Thin Margins Separate Trump and Biden in Uncalled States; Balance of Power in Senate May Hinge on Nail-Biter Races in Georgia. Aired 9-9:30a ET

Aired November 05, 2020 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: It is 9:00 a.m. in the East, 6:00 in the West. And votes are still being counted in several key states with razor thin margins in these four states that have been on the move all night long.

Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada. Either candidate could still win this election, one candidate is closer. Former Vice President Joe Biden currently with 253 electoral votes, he is as little as one state away from victory depending on which that state is. As of now the president has 213 electoral votes, he does have an uphill climb, but still very much in it.

Stand by for a "CNN Key Race Alert."

This is the situation in each of these states. In Arizona Joe Biden has a 68,000 vote lead, 11 electoral votes there. More than 200,000 votes left in that state. Donald Trump has halved Joe Biden's lead overnight. He is closing in. The question is on the makeup of the remaining vote. Donald Trump would have to overperform, get about 60 percent of that as the day continues. Stand by for more information on that.

In Georgia, Donald Trump leads by 18,000 votes, not very much. That has been changing all morning long. We just learned there is 50,000 votes left in that state. If Joe Biden hits 70 percent of the vote in that remaining chunk he could remerge victorious.

In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump leads by 164,000 votes. This may be the most important state. If Joe Biden wins these 20 electoral votes, he wins the whole thing. Can he make up that 164,000 vote margin? It depends where that remaining vote is. We just got new information on that. So stand by.

Other states we're looking at this morning. In the state of North Carolina, 15 electoral votes up for grabs. The president has maintained a steady lead of 76,000 votes. This has not changed, both campaigns think President Trump will win there. Still, we're watching it closely. Finally in Nevada six electoral votes. Joe Biden with a 7,000 vote

lead. We haven't had an update out of Nevada in terms of new votes in about a day. We are waiting for more information from there. The outstanding vote is mail vote, largely from Clark County that does skew Democratic. Still, we need to learn much more about that.

Let's look at the overall situation right now. Joe Biden has 253. Donald Trump 213. You can see on the map all the states in white that have yet to be decided. Any one of these states could tell us where this election is going. One state, one state could give one of these candidates the presidency. That state is Pennsylvania.

So I'm going to go over to the magic wall right now and talk to Phil Mattingly. Let's start with Pennsylvania because this could -- would be decisive at least for Joe Biden.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It would be decisive for Joe Biden if he wins Pennsylvania. That's 20 electoral votes and that would put him over 270, 273 to be exact. And here's why Pennsylvania is so important right now. You look at the top line margin, President Trump up 164,000 votes. Here's some context to that. Over the course of the last several hours President Trump has gone from up 700,000 votes down to where he currently is right now.

Now what it's all about? Outstanding vote. Now the big question, how has Joe Biden eaten into so much of Donald Trump's margin? Well, it's a similar story to what we saw in the Midwestern states of Michigan and Wisconsin where they started out red, as they counted election day vote. They couldn't count mail-in ballots until later in the night after they finished the election day vote.

Once that vote started being counted which was heavily Democratic Joe Biden started to catch up, catch up, and then overtake. Both of those states have since been called for Joe Biden.

Pennsylvania, we're seeing a similar type of progression. Will Joe Biden have enough? Well, here is what we know at this point in time. Joe Biden's largest county outstanding by far is Philadelphia County. It is the largest county in the state, it is heavily Democratic, and as of now only 70 percent is reporting.

What we know about the outstanding vote in Philadelphia and Philadelphia County, it's about 140,000 votes. What Philadelphia County has been breaking so far has been 79 percent to 19 percent. The expectation from Democrats on the ground is that the outstanding vote here, the vote by mail, will skew potentially even more Democratic.

So say that outstanding vote in Philadelphia County ends up being about 140,000 votes and it breaks about 80-20, that's 112,000 votes for Joe Biden right here in this county to start adding up. Now netting out would be a little bit less than that, but that's potentially six figures in one county.

We've got Bucks County over here. This is about to flip blue. We've gotten some information about where this is ending up. Right now there's about 29,000 votes outstanding here, but once the wall updates, we're still waiting to get all of this data in in real time Joe Biden will have pulled ahead by about 6,000 votes in this county as well.

Add that to the tally. What you're seeing throughout the course of this day is in southeastern Pennsylvania, Democratic stronghold, Joe Biden has vote outstanding, Joe Biden is picking up vote, Joe Biden is expected to pick up more votes.

[09:05:09]

What you're also seeing, Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh, there is vote outstanding, it is leaning heavily Democratic and it's leaning even more Democratic because it's primarily vote by mail. The other issue where there's outstanding vote in red counties.

Over the course of the night even in President Trump's strongest strongholds in this state as the mail-in vote has been counted, as the mail-in vote has been reported, the mail-in vote even in strongholds, these red counties you're seeing particularly out west, has cleaned Democratic.

So even where there's outstanding rote in red counties much of that vote is coming in Democratic as well. So the big question now, how much is left? We know it's hundreds of thousands of votes. Can Joe Biden make up this margin?

BERMAN: Something just changed, by the way. While I was standing, up before that, it was a 163,000 vote margin, now it's 146,000 vote margin, right?

MATTINGLY: Yes.

BERMAN: So Joe Biden has closed the gap by 18,000 votes in the last two and a half minutes. So you can see the results as the votes come in. And just one more point I want to make here, Phil, because people are going to look at this and say, 146,000 votes is still the biggest gap. This is the state with the largest gap that we're still looking at right now. But it's also the state where Democrats are most confident. Both those things can be true because of what you just said.

MATTINGLY: Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, a pretty well-known Pennsylvania family, said earlier today -- Democratic senator from the state of Pennsylvania, Joe Biden will win Pennsylvania. He predicted Joe Biden would win Pennsylvania by 100,000 votes. Now here's is the caveat, he's a Joe Biden supporter, he obviously believes in Joe Biden, wants Joe Biden to win the state of Pennsylvania but it just underscores your point.

Democrats are feeling increasingly confident because of what's outstanding, because it's vote by mail, and because it's almost primarily in their strongholds throughout the state.

BERMAN: All right. Let's go to Georgia.

MATTINGLY: Yes. BERMAN: Because the math here is fascinating. Victor Blackwell just

reported there's 50,000 votes left to count. You can see Donald Trump ahead by 18,500.

MATTINGLY: Yes, 50,000 votes left to count. And the big thing we've seen throughout the course of the night as this dropped from 30,000 to 28,000 to 26,000, now to 18,000, is the majority of the vote that has been coming in has been vote by mail and has come from Democratic areas. It's come primarily from the Atlanta metro area. It's come from Fulton County. We've seen a lot of Fulton County in.

We saw Victor report that about 10,000 is left outstanding in Fulton County. Fulton County over the course of the last several hours, as I've watched this vote come in, has broken almost consistently 80-20 to Joe Biden. So if you factor that in, if that trend sets, the next 10,000 votes to come in, that will be another 8,000 votes for Joe Biden. So we will see how that comes in. The big question again here, out of that 50,000 votes, how much does Joe Biden have to win?

You've done the math on this. I trust you on this.

BERMAN: I did the math so you don't have to. If he wins 70 percent of the remaining 50,000 votes that would give him a 20,000 vote margin.

MATTINGLY: So can he win 70 percent? Well, in Fulton he's been winning 80. So the big question is, what's outstanding here? Take a look. Take this down a little bit. You see a couple of red counties here. The big thing Democrats are looking at right now is you go to Chatham County, home of Savannah. Still 13 percent outstanding. Not a huge margin but that's a comfortable margin. So we'll see that --

BERMAN: And remember, we're talking about the mail-in votes so even if the overall margin isn't 70-30 the mail-in vote margin in these counties might be.

MATTINGLY: Has been trending Democratic at an even higher level than what we've seen in these counties. You bring up Richmond County, as well, home of Augusta, 67.9 percent to 30 percent. Healthier margin there with about 14 percent of the vote outstanding. That's going to come in, likely lean Democratic, likely come in vote by mail.

So again, we don't know the exact composition of this vote. We don't know exactly how it's going to break down. We do know what's happened over the course of the last several hours not just in Georgia but other states as well to provide some context and that context shows that Joe Biden has a chance -- has a chance in these 50,000 votes that are outstanding right now of hitting that 70 percent mark, that it looks like based on John Berman's math, I trust it, you should as well, that he can hit that 70 percent mark on what's outstanding and potentially pull ahead in Georgia. We'll see.

BERMAN: All right.

MATTINGLY: We'll see, but it's tight. It's very tight.

BERMAN: We're going to talk about Arizona a little bit later in the broadcast. Donald Trump has been closing the gap there. Joe Biden still clinging to a lead. But let's talk about the overall path to 270 now, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Yes. I think one of the things that I've tried to convey and we've talked about a bunch since I came in here is just the importance of Pennsylvania because of the trends where it's going and it's pretty simple here. What you're looking at is this map where it's filled in red, those are states that CNN has called for Donald Trump. Where it's filled in blue those are states CNN has called for Vice President Biden.

We'll go ahead, for the sake of gaming this out, Donald Trump has a fairly comfortable lead in North Carolina. Both parties say that right now. It has not been called. It's about 78,000 votes. Let's go ahead and give Donald Trump North Carolina. Let's go ahead and give Donald Trump Alaska because they're going to be counting for weeks in Alaska right now. What does that leave? That leaves Pennsylvania, it leaves Georgia, it leaves Arizona, it leaves Nevada.

What happens if Joe Biden wins the state of Pennsylvania?

[09:10:02]

BERMAN: He is the next president of the United States.

MATTINGLY: Joe Biden is the next president of the United States. It's the clearest path, it's a pathway that Democrats on the ground say is within reach right now.

BERMAN: They say it's the most likely path.

MATTINGLY: It is the most likely path.

BERMAN: I think we have to be clear. It's the state they're most confident about. They could be wrong but people need to know it's the state Democrats feel the best about right now.

MATTINGLY: There's no question about it. You talk to any Democrat right now. You talk to campaigns. This is where they feel the most immediate pathway is. So for the Trump campaign, the reality is this, they need to find a way to keep this red. Don't necessarily know if it's going to happen, it doesn't appear right now like it's going to happen, but there's still vote outstanding, a lot of vote outstanding, and Donald Trump is leading still by about 140,000 votes.

So the big question is, if Donald Trump can hold on to the state of Pennsylvania, well, right now he's trailing in Arizona, but the margin has narrowed. The margin has narrowed. What happens if the next batch of big Maricopa County vote comes in and Donald Trump wins there? What happens then, Georgia, Nevada. We're still waiting to see what happens in Nevada. Georgia is extremely tight. Donald Trump wins Georgia, Donald Trump is over 270 electoral votes.

Here is the bigger problem for the Trump campaign. It's not just Pennsylvania. They also are currently trailing in Arizona. They also are currently trailing in Nevada. They also are staring at a reality that Georgia is tightening extraordinarily quickly. That is also a distinct possibility without Pennsylvania. Add Pennsylvania to it and there is a pathway right now for Joe Biden to get to 306 electoral votes.

You could make the argument Joe Biden has a clearer pathway to 306 than Donald Trump does to 270 right now. One thing we want to make completely clear, they are still counting, they are still counting in all of these states and all of these states are very close. Both candidates have pathways. I would argue Donald Trump has pathway, Joe Biden has multiple, and the clearest one. The clearest one by far is Pennsylvania where Democrats are feeling very confident as things currently stand.

BERMAN: All right. Phil, thank you so much. Please keep looking at these votes as they come in because sometimes we get unexpected updates that just pop up. All right. Keep us posted.

The Trump campaign has already filed lawsuits in four of these states and is calling for a recount in Wisconsin. Joe Biden leads there by 20,000 votes. Let's go to Jim Sciutto at the voting desk for the details on the legal battle -- Jim.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, could you say that we've entered the legal phase of this election as the counting goes on? Yes, but of course it would have to be the legal phase chapter two. Trump campaign filed a lot of cases before the election. Those dealing primarily with voter access. They lost most of them, by the way.

Now dealing with the count. Now to be clear, CNN has talked to a lot of legal folks for both parties and in general the view of these cases is that the evidence is too thin by and large and also that the number of votes that they are targeting too small to turn the election. Now let's be clear, there are a lot of different judges, courts out there, you never know it's unpredictable but that's the general view.

So let's go case by case, state by state. Let's begin with Georgia. You were just talking about the tight margins there. So you got a tight margin in that state, so tiny numbers of votes could make a difference. And Republicans here focusing on a small number of ballots that as they were going through the counting process, this pile of ballots being processed somehow ended up in a pile of ballots ready to be tabulated, says the Trump campaign.

They are challenging that and of course could be the basis for the campaign to challenge the state's results more broadly if it goes blue and the margin is tight. That is the focus right now in Georgia.

Let's go to Pennsylvania. Another key state. The focus here state law allowing for ballots, mail-in ballots, to be received up to three days after the election. You will remember the Trump campaign challenged this prior to the election, the Supreme Court stepped in, let it go forward.

Now a conservative justice is on the Supreme Court seemed to leave a possible pathway open to challenge that after the election if those, I want to say, quote-unquote, "late-arriving" ballots because by state law they are not late but that's how they're being described there, if they were to be enough to turn the election could there be a challenge there.

The state officials there, Democrats, taking it seriously enough that they have arranged to segregate those "late arriving" -- and, again, in quotes -- ballots from ones that came earlier so that, you know, you wouldn't mix the pot in effect. You can keep some segregated that might be challenged.

I should also note that even conservative justices have allowed some deference to what voters believed when they cast their vote. That if this was the law then and they thought hey, this is what you told me was OK when I cast my vote, that they wouldn't or might have hesitation to challenge that. Again, we don't know how they decide in the end but that's the basis of the lawsuit there in Pennsylvania.

Let's go to Michigan. Of course a state already been called by this network and others, but Republicans there have filed a lawsuit to halt the counting statewide. Why? Their claim is that they want meaningful access to observe the processing in particular of mail-in ballots there. That's in Michigan. State already called, but a challenge under way.

Finally, in Nevada, another close state -- and to be clear before I lay out the details of this lawsuit, the Republicans have tried this path twice already and they've lost, but they're hoping third time is a charm.

[09:15:00]

They want to look at signature matching software in that state which uses some artificial intelligence -- anyway, to match the signatures of voters with prior signature records and thereby stop the counting.

Again, they've lost this case already a couple of times, but they're pursuing it and, again, in these states where it's tight, these numbers could presumably make a difference. They could conceivably make a difference.

Final note just because this came in just a short time ago this morning, another lawsuit in Pennsylvania, this one relates not to that three-day extra time allowed for ballots being mailed in, but relates to poll watchers and voter ID laws. The Trump campaign's argument here is that there is an attempt here to disenfranchise GOP voters, again, big picture with these cases, John, the general view that the evidence is too thin and that they're not going to affect enough votes to turn the election.

But you and I have lived through 2020 together, we have seen some surprises here and there, including in the courts, so never say never, and of course we'll keep on top of this if any new lawsuits are filed today.

BERMAN: Yes, the margins absolutely do matter though, Jim, and you're so right to point that out. Recounts, lawsuits -- SCIUTTO: Yes --

BERMAN: Change dozens of votes generally, hundreds tops, not thousands. It just --

SCIUTTO: Yes --

BERMAN: Doesn't happen. So, that's what makes the counting which is what's going on right now so crucial.

SCIUTTO: Yes --

BERMAN: Jim Sciutto, thanks so much --

SCIUTTO: Thanks --

BERMAN: For that report. Lawsuits, though, is what the Trump campaign has left right now. It's the strategy they have as the margins narrow in places like Pennsylvania and Georgia. John Harwood following the campaign in Washington. John, what are you hearing from inside Trump world this morning?

JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, we just got a tweet from the president of the United States saying, stop the count and the president, of course, has tried through the legal processes that Jim Sciutto outlined a few minutes ago, tried to interfere with the counts, depending on whether more counting would help them or less counting would help them.

But we didn't see the president in person yesterday after that 2:30, 3:00 a.m. rant where he said we've won the election. He was plainly sitting back and tweeting and watching the results like the rest of us. I don't know if we'll see him today, nothing is on his public schedule. But one of the things you have to wonder is how much his heart is going to be in a broad legal fight if he's got multiple states to contest.

If it doesn't just come down to one state, but if he -- if Senator Casey is right and Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, if his leads hold up in Nevada and Arizona, then there's some margin and how many fights does Donald Trump have the stomach for?

We don't know. He sent one tweet yesterday where he said, well, the damage has already been done to the presidential election system. Sounded like a hint of resignation there. So we don't know how much -- how much fight is left in him over this situation as the counts get worse for him, have to watch what develops during the day.

BERMAN: Yes, we don't know where the count will go ultimately. What we do know is when the president says stop the count, he's talking about not counting votes that were legally cast and legally arrived by Tuesday night. That is undemocratic, unconstitutional, not going to happen.

John Harwood at the White House, thank you very much for that. Former Vice President Joe Biden, he has been clear with his message, he says let the system work, let every vote be counted, but obviously, the margins are tight in Nevada, in Arizona, his lead has been shrinking. So are there concerns this morning? CNN's Jessica Dean in Wilmington, Delaware, with the Biden campaign. What's the word from Biden world?

JESSICA DEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning to you, John. The Biden campaign remains incredibly confident this morning, they say they feel very good, and they are assured that when all of these votes are counted, that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States. They really are confident in that position.

A senior adviser telling me this morning, we should expect to see Vice President Biden sometime today, and then again potentially, if this race is called, whenever that may be. We don't know yet. But we should expect to see Vice President Biden sometimes today. They really don't want to see that spotlight to President Trump at all, they want to continue to keep Vice President Biden out front. But they remain optimistic.

You mentioned their messaging, and it has been consistent, we heard it from Biden yesterday, we continue to hear it from the campaign this morning, which is let the process play out, make sure every vote is counted and then let's see where we are. Again, they believe they will come out on top.

[09:20:00]

Let me tell you why they feel very good about Pennsylvania. They see very encouraging signs in Pennsylvania. In Arizona, they know that their lead is shrinking, but they anticipate and think that they can hold the lead, even with those new votes coming in. And in Georgia, they are keeping their eyes trained on these Democratic strongholds. You saw Phil walking through where those remaining ballots are out in Georgia, the Biden campaign watching those very closely this morning, John.

BERMAN: All right, Jessica Dean, please keep us posted. They're counting in Pennsylvania and Georgia, more votes just came in, the margins changed. We'll have a key race alert when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: John Berman here back with CNN's special live coverage. The margins just changed in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump, his lead shrinking again, now by about 142,000 votes he leads Joe Biden, it was 146,000 about five minutes ago.

[09:25:00]

You can see Joe Biden inching closer. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, still a big if, he will win the presidential election. The presidential race not the only one out there. We're watching several key Senate races as well. Let's go to CNN anchor Brianna Keilar in Washington for an update on that. Brianna.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: And John, of course the Senate is going to be hugely important to whoever wins the presidential election in order to get their agenda taken care of. So, let's look at the balance of power here. Democrats looking to flip the Senate, they need 51 seats, 47-47 right now Democrats to Republicans.

There are six seats that remain unprojected. And keep in mind when you're looking at the magic number for how many seats Democrats need in order to change the balance of power. It's four right now, and that's actually where they started this whole thing before the elections. So they haven't moved much.

And what that means is that with the results of so many Senate seats coming in, they really have a narrow pathway to get there. So let's look at some of the outstanding races that we're keeping our eye on right now. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis is leading right now over Cal Cunningham, his Democratic challenger, and this is a lead that he's enjoyed for some time.

Then in Georgia, you have the special election for the incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler's seat, she has made it into the runoff along with her Democratic challenger Reverend Raphael Warnock. So, they're going to a runoff election, January 5th.

In Arizona right now, a sizable lead by Mark Kelly; the astronaut, former Navy captain over incumbent Republican Martha McSally. And then in Maine, Susan Collins has a lead. Keep in mind though, Sara Gideon, her Democratic challenger, the house speaker there in Maine has conceded this race.

So, we're still waiting a projection on that race. But if things stay the same here, you would be looking at a Democratic pickup by Mark Sally in Arizona, and that would take the magic number to three. And then if you're looking here in Georgia where you see David Perdue has a lead of 50 percent, that's good, keep in mind, though, in Georgia, you need to have 50 percent in order to avoid a runoff.

And right now as more votes are being counted, he's seen Jon Ossoff chipping away at that lead. So, what does that mean? That means that if Joe Biden were to win the presidency and have a vice president who could be a tie-breaker in the Senate, the number then goes to two.

All eyes start looking here at Georgia at this potential race going to a special election, looking toward that other -- that other runoff election in Georgia in January as well. And John, this is an interesting position potentially if Democrats are going to shoot the moon here, they would find themselves hanging everything on the southern state of Georgia.

So, that's an uncomfortable place to be for Democrats if it's something they could succeed in, it would be extraordinary. But this is -- you know, after all is said and done, this isn't the -- exactly a comfortable position for them to be in.

BERMAN: No, it's not the position they thought they'd be in. But let me just make clear what you're saying here, to make sure I understand it correctly, we could be talking about two runoff elections in the state of Georgia. They would take place in January. We're guaranteed one, we could get two -- KEILAR: Yes --

BERMAN: Depending on what happens in the Georgia vote in the next few minutes. And if there are these two runoff elections that could determine control of the Senate, control of the Senate could be up for grabs until the first week of January. That would be something, I suppose you could say, that would be very 2020.

KEILAR: That's very 2020, so watch that 50 percent number for David Perdue, and then also just keeping in mind that if, you know, if we do have to wait until January, how would that affect really what either president is going to do. Different scenarios especially if you think of Joe Biden, and he's thinking about the people he would need to get through the Senate for confirmation. You know what? If it's not a done deal that he has an advantage in the Senate, what would that mean?

BERMAN: I will say Joe Biden-Mitch McConnell have a history of working together on many things over a long time. It isn't clear what their relationship would be if Biden wins, if McConnell is the leader, but it is something to watch very closely. I'm still wrapping my head around the idea of this overtime 2020, lasting into 2021. We'll be covering that --

KEILAR: Yes --

BERMAN: Every day for the next two months. Brianna Keilar, great to see you, thanks so much.

KEILAR: Good to see you, John.

BERMAN: Now over to Alisyn Camerota, Alisyn?

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Hashtag 2020. I hear you. All right, meanwhile, as Brianna just explained, if Joe Biden wins the White House, he most likely will be facing a Republican majority Senate.

So with us to discuss this and more, we have CNN political analyst David Gergen and CNN special correspondent Jamie Gangel. Great to see both of you. David, you've been around Washington a long time. So, let's talk about that scenario. If Joe Biden wins and we have a Democrat in the White House with a Republican-led Senate, does that spell gridlock for the next four years?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It doesn't spell gridlock, but it does spell very tough to govern successfully. And let's face it, even the Democrats are confident about now, about taking the White House.