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CNN Live Event/Special
CNN Projects Trump Wins Iowa Caucuses; DeSantis & Haley Battling For Second Place; Right Now: Votes Being Counted In Clive, Iowa. Aired 9-10p ET
Aired January 15, 2024 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[21:00:00]
JOHN KING, CNN HOST: As you watch the map fill in, right now, we know Donald Trump's going to win. We know that from our projection, which is based on the exit poll -- entrance poll, excuse me, which is based on key precincts, with based on what we're seeing and hearing, on the ground.
The question is the margin, right? At the moment, he's at 54 percent. Governor DeSantis, at 19 percent. Nikki Haley at 19 percent, if you round that up. So now, right now, early in the count, very early in the count, look at all the gray. A lot of the 99 counties have reported nothing. It's a battle for second place. And right now, it is quite a spirited battle, for second place.
If it stays this way, Donald Trump wins twice. He would win by winning with a big margin like that, especially if he stays over 50 percent. And he would win that there's no clear alternative below him. But I'm saying that at 9 o'clock in the east. We have a long way to go in this count.
So, what else are we seeing in the map? Two counties, at the moment, where Nikki Haley is leading, one is Johnson County, Iowa City, a more moderate county, in the eastern part of the State College Area there as well. Another college area here, Story County, Des Moines -- north of Des Moines, there, where Haley is leading, at the moment. But look, 25, 13, 10, this is a tiny, tiny smattering of votes. That's one precinct probably.
And we have our first DeSantis county of the night, up here. Sioux County, in the northwest county of the state. Again, northwest Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska, think that. You're rural. You're prairie. You're out this way here. DeSantis ahead, early though, 127 to 104 to 74. So, you're watching the map fill in.
And it's one -- now, since we know Trump is going to win, the big question is by how much. And where? We know he'll be strong in these rural counties here.
The question is in these places here, this is where Sarah (ph) has been throughout tonight, in Linn County, very early in the count. If Trump keeps this Trump red, that's a big win for Donald Trump. This is not a place, where he was strong in 2016. And it's a place, where in both general elections, he did not perform well. If suburban Republicans are coming back to Donald Trump, that would be a plus, coming out of Iowa.
But as we watch this, Erin, remember, the most important thing, we know Donald Trump's going to win. The second most important thing, there's a lot of gray on this map. So, we don't know by how much. And we don't know what's going to happen, beneath him.
And what happens beneath him, if there's no consolidation, and DeSantis and Haley are kind of congested together? That leaves it pretty murky, as Donald Trump goes on to a state, where he has done well in the past, New Hampshire. And then, if we get a consolidation? We know a little more.
Let's listen.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trump. DeSantis. Trump. Trump. Haley. Trump. Trump. Trump. Again. Trump. Trump. Trump. DeSantis. Haley. Trump.
That's it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Now, if you've been keeping track, this is not an official tally, because we have to make sure that the number of people registered equals, or the number of ballots is not great. It's equal to or less than (inaudible). So, hold on.
KING: What you just heard there was important, especially at a time when so many people have been told to doubt the integrity of elections, right?
There you have. I don't know her name. That's a wonderful Republican official out in Pottawattamie County, saying, we're going to count the votes. You just heard us do it live. But that's not official, because now we're going to double-check the count.
This is what happens everywhere, in Democratic precincts and Republican precincts, in evenly-drawn precincts, all across America, on election nights. Whether they're using a hand ballot, like this, and counting it right before your very eyes.
VOICE OF KING: Doing the arithmetic we all learned in grammar school, or whether they're using machines, but they can also double-check the machines as well. There are ways to do this.
This, to me, as someone, who's done this for 40 years, forgive me for editorializing, is the saddest part of our democracy that people doubt this. You're watching it, tonight. Republicans, this is a Republican process you're watching tonight.
These are honest, hardworking Americans, counting votes, doing it, right. There's every reason to believe, because it has always been so that this will continue all the way through the process.
I love watching this, because it's working the way it's supposed to work, because it works.
ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: And John, when we look at this, you watch those popcorn containers. You know what they -- they're picking every vote out of it. And then when he's done, with a flourish, putting them face down, we're done. And then, they go back and recount.
It is somehow that something that everybody can absolutely relate to, right? And yet -- one of the other ones, where we were watching the counting, and a Ziploc bag. By the way, I'll note a Ziploc bag that have been used many times that this is -- these are just regular people, doing their job.
Let's go to Ames, right at the dead center of the state.
[21:05:00]
Kate Bolduan, you have had so many interesting conversations, with voters. What's happening there, right now?
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So, what we just witnessed, we've gone out of the gymnasium, where two of the precincts, in Ames, they were caucusing.
And where they came is they came out here, to these two tables. They took -- they were in grocery -- grocery store paper bags, is where they collected the ballots, these color-index cards. They brought them out here, laid them all out, divided them by name, and then counted them, and then counted them twice.
Two precincts are in this gymnasium, Ames Precinct 23 that we -- Ron DeSantis got 29 votes, and brought in 38.7 percent of this precinct. Haley -- Nikki Haley was next with 22 votes, 29.3 percent of this precinct. And then, Donald Trump, he received 20 votes, which was 26.7 percent of this precinct.
So, this is just one of the 24 precincts, in Ames, just Ames, and how this process work. They brought out those color-index cards, Erin. They counted them all out, counted them twice. Four or five volunteers, just from the bleachers inside, they were asked to come, help with the counting.
Just as John was talking about, regular folks, volunteering, all came out here, counted them up. You see some of them kind of looking over. They were gathered, looking over some of the final counts. There is some volunteering, they're actually signing up for. And back inside the gymnasium, they're getting back to some more local county party business.
And that's how it's gone down, here. It seems that it's gone pretty flawlessly. They counted it twice. And now, that's how this caucus works here, in Ames.
Erin?
BURNETT: All right, Kate.
John, can you put some context around the numbers Kate's reporting, talking about, again, two precincts in Ames.
KING: Right.
BURNETT: But DeSantis coming out on top there, Haley, and then Trump, from where she's standing.
KING: Right. So, the value of having these great reporters, in the key areas, around the state, is they're actually ahead of this count, right?
So, that count -- anything counted there, right there, before her eyes, again, as Kate notes, will be double-checked and triple-checked on the scene, and then reported to the Iowa Republican Party. And then, it gets released, as official, and fed.
So, our reporters, on the scene, in these key precincts, are ahead of the math, if you will, of what we're going to see here.
But let's just come out, to the statewide map, first, just to check in again, not much has changed. The former President is well ahead, as a contested ballot for second place. Again, we're very, very early in the count. But look how close this is at the moment. 599 votes to 580 votes. It also tells you we got a long way to go, if it's 599 votes to 580 votes. We got thousands more votes to count.
But you're looking at the map fill in. And if you're Donald Trump, that's your red. You're more than happy, at the moment, because you're just hoping -- your goal now, at Donald Trump, is to stay above 50 percent. That's your big goal. You're going to win the state? You want to stay above 50 percent, for the message that gives you, coming out of it.
So, where Kate was? That was the context you ask.
Story County is again, it's the seventh largest of the 99 counties. It's about, where are we, 3 percent of the population, smaller population of Republicans. This is one of the more Democratic counties in Iowa.
But you have Ames here, college town. If you pull out to look where we are here? This is where you've had the biggest population growth.
One of my questions, coming into this, is since 2016, when Donald Trump first ran, first took over his hostile takeover. Now, friendly Republican Party, 60,000 people have moved here to Metro Des Moines, since then. Now, they're not all Republicans. They're not even all voters. But one of my questions is what's new this cycle? And does that impact things?
And so, you're looking for where the new voters are, and whether they make a difference, if they turn out. And so far, in the early results, we got a long way to go. But if Donald Trump, right now, is well ahead? It's 10 votes, two votes, one votes. So, it almost doesn't count. It's the first precinct's in. But in Polk County, Donald Trump running ahead.
And in Story County, Donald Trump down low. This is interesting, if it stays like this, and he stays way down here. But that's what you're looking for, Erin. We don't have the answers yet. These are the seeds of the clues. But where Kate is, is one of the key places of even if Donald Trump wins Iowa tonight, by how much, and how strong is he, heading on to other states? We'll learn that as we get more votes later.
BURNETT: All right, John.
And now, it's a question all about margin, and what really is a win for Trump.
Kristen Holmes is at Trump headquarters.
And Kristen, that's got to be the conversation they're having, right now, as they were, I'm sure, excited to hear such an early call. But now, it's about the real numbers, and the votes coming in.
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right, Erin. That's actually what former President Trump is waiting for, right now. It's to actually see some of those numbers coming in.
We know he is here, at this event location. But I am told he is not likely to come out and speak right away, because they are watching to see those numbers come in, to see what the margin is.
We had heard from multiple campaign advisers. They had really been tempering expectations, saying that they didn't believe the margins were quite as big as we saw in those public polls, nothing near 30. However, they are feeling more confident.
[21:10:00]
And I will tell you that speaking to his advisers, tonight, many of them say they feel vindicated. They had a robust ground game, on the ground, in Iowa. They analyzed data. They brought out new caucusgoers, in droves. And now, they are feeling like they're reaping the benefits of what they put out there, for the last year. This was much more sophisticated than what we saw in 2016.
And one thing I will tell you is that Donald Trump has been fixated on the fact that he didn't win in 2016, for quite some time. It still irritated him. And because, he is superstitious, he was continually asking his team, are these poll numbers, right? Am I going to take it by this much? Now, he is very happy, obviously, to see these numbers.
But, as you noted, it's all about the margins. How big is that win going to being? They want a definitive win to not only set the tone, but to stop any momentum, from their rivals, particularly Nikki Haley, going into New Hampshire.
And the other thing I will note is I actually heard from one adviser, who said that they would hope that DeSantis actually comes in seconds, that it would also stunt Haley going into New Hampshire, because they are seeing her rise, in that state, as we have reported, already spending millions, to hit her there.
BURNETT: All right, Kristen, thank you very much.
Let's go to Clive, Iowa now, where Dana Bash is.
And Dana, of course, earlier in the night, Donald Trump was where you were, coming out to address people. And it was very soon after that, that he was pronounced the winner. Interesting though, he's waiting to see the margins himself, before any sort of a formal victory speech.
DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, which is understandable, given what we're seeing here, with our own eyes, and hearing with our own ears, which is that these people? I mean, there are hundreds of people, here in Clive, Iowa. They are still listening, to the speeches.
We just heard a speech wrap up from Chip Roy, the congressman from Texas, who has endorsed Ron DeSantis, speaking on behalf of Ron DeSantis.
We've seen some pretty heavy-hitters here. You talked about Donald Trump. Nikki Haley was here. We saw Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson. A lot of the candidates came here, in-person, to make their case.
And just to hear them. And I mean, it's a lot of the -- it's their stump speech. But to be a part of this process, and to witness the candidates make their case, minutes before the people actually cast their votes?
CHRIS WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: I was going to say, Dana, how smart are you that you would put us all here, and then, in Clive.
KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
WALLACE: And then we ended up being in the--
BASH: Hope that it had (ph) nothing to do with it.
WALLACE: --in the best--
BASH: It's a great team.
WALLACE: --the best seat in the house, for the Iowa caucuses. Everybody except DeSantis came, here tonight.
HUNT: Yes.
WALLACE: And it was -- it's been a pretty good show. And they haven't even started to vote yet.
HUNT: Yes. So, Dana, one thing I wanted to kind of under -- or bring up. I've been talking to sources, all night. And a very conservative source of mine, raises something that we saw in our entrance polls, from earlier tonight.
And this was the number around whether or not they would consider Trump to be disqualified for office, if he's convicted, if he's a convicted felon. And 32 percent of caucusgoers said that he would be disqualified. Obviously, initially, the reaction is oh, that means 60- plus, say he's not.
This person, who I think would gladly see Donald Trump be president, says that that 32 percent says more about the general election, and the possibility that Trump would be an immediate loser. If they lose that many? If they lose a third of Republicans?
BASH: Yes.
HUNT: If he is convicted? That makes it almost impossible. So, it kind of turns it a little bit on its head. I thought it was a very interesting point.
I also think it potentially presages, an incredibly, even darker than we've already seen general election campaign, because what would Trump have to do to convince those people?
BASH: Well, I heard Scott Jennings, I believe earlier, making a similar point, because you know, where he stands. He's worried about Donald Trump, as are--
HUNT: Mitch McConnell Republican.
BASH: --as are others.
HUNT: Yes.
BASH: Which is probably why we just heard Chip Roy behind us. Again, Republican congressman, super-conservative. He's a supporter of Ron DeSantis. Making the argument, not for Donald, or not against Donald Trump, because of those -- for those reasons. Those are not the people that people like Ron DeSantis are appealing to.
WALLACE: And--
BASH: He was making the argument from the other side. Don't support Donald Trump, because he didn't do some of the things he promised to do. He didn't put a wall up, on the border. He didn't make -- he didn't keep the promises, the conservative promises, many of them that he promised everybody, he would do.
WALLACE: I just want to follow-up, though, on what you were saying, Kasie, in this question of is the glass, two-thirds full, or one-third empty on the--
HUNT: Right.
WALLACE: --on the issue of Republicans, not willing to support. You see somebody like Chris Sununu, the Governor of New Hampshire, who is a devout Haley supporter, and a fierce Trump critic, also saying, if he's the nominee, I'll endorse him, and I'll support -- I'll back him and support him. I mean?
HUNT: Yes.
WALLACE: You do not get a sense that that there are a lot of people out there, in the Republican Party, who aren't going to rally around the flag, and support Donald Trump, whatever the misgivings and legitimate misgivings, they have about him, and his character, and his conduct--
HUNT: Yes.
WALLACE: --if he's the nominee of the party.
HUNT: Sure.
BASH: I'm--
[21:15:00]
HUNT: But I mean, I do -- I do think, though, that at the end of the day, it's going to be, the Trump campaign is going to see it's an issue for them. And they're going to have to go even harder, into these dark places, to convince people that the system is rigged. He's going to attack the institution -- and going to have to attack the institutions, even more than he already has.
BASH: Anderson, I'm going to toss it back to you, as we wait for the actual voting to start, at this very large caucus site, where we are.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: Dana, thanks very much.
I want to check with David Chalian, who's got some more numbers.
David, what are you seeing?
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Anderson, we asked folks sort of the candidate qualities they were looking for, in tonight's choice, as they were making their decision. What quality mattered most?
Overall, 43 percent of Iowa Republican caucusgoers, tonight, said they were looking for a candidate, who shares my values.
31 percent said, fights for people like me, was their most important candidate quality.
Way down on the list was this electability argument. Only 12 percent said they were looking for a candidate, most of all that could defeat Joe Biden.
And again, only a 12 percent slice said they were looking for the candidate, who has the right temperament.
But now, I want to show you sort of inside each candidate, major candidates coalition. So, this is among Trump voters. Among Trump voters, what quality mattered most?
For a slim majority, 51 percent, they were looking for somebody who fights for people like me. Another third or so, 36 percent say, looking for someone, who shares my values. They don't care about electability. And the Trump supporters certainly don't care about having the right temperament. Haley voters, this is her coalition. Here, having the right temperament was the top candidate quality, for her supporters. 37 percent said it was the most important. 31 percent, shares my values. Here, electability, a key argument from Nikki Haley, shows up here with 23 percent. And only 5 percent of her supporters said they were looking for somebody, who fights for people like me.
DeSantis' coalition. Overwhelmingly, 61 percent said they came to the caucuses, looking for somebody, who shares their values. Nothing else of these qualities, fighting for somebody like me, defeating Biden, or having the right temperament, really weighed on the minds, of DeSantis voters. They were looking for somebody they identified with, on a value-based system.
Anderson.
COOPER: David Chalian, really interesting.
Back here with the panel.
It's so interesting how the former President has convinced a huge number of people, in the party that he is fighting for them. I mean, as much as he talks about his own legal fights? And many commentators say that's all he really talks about. People believe he is fighting for them.
AUDIE CORNISH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well he talks about persecution, right? And so, it's his persecution.
And also, let's say, in the case of evangelicals, saying that people, who have religious faith are inherently persecuted, by the broader culture.
And I think that is a way of creating an identification, because then it means all -- this huge array of institutions that you no longer trust, they're not just against me, they're against you. And we've talked a lot about how he's been able to make that argument stick.
DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, that's just combat -- I think it's just his combative nature overall, in general, right, Anderson? I mean, it's his personality. It's pugnacious. It's combative, everything about the guy.
So, it's not necessarily, I think, a one issue kind of -- I think that's -- his personality is, I'm a fighter, I'm going to go to Washington--
DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: But his central--
URBAN: --I'm going to turn the place down, again and again.
AXELROD: His central thesis, from the moment he came down that escalator--
URBAN: Yes. AXELROD: --was that there is a Deep State. There is an establishment that disrespects you. And I am your, essentially, I am your avenging avatar.
URBAN: Right. And--
AXELROD: And now, it is more important to him, because he's -- his narrative fits all of these indictments, into that. The same people, who disrespect you, who are trying to stop me from being your voice, you know? So, it is really central to his political question.
URBAN: It obviously works pretty well.
ALYSSA FARAH GRIFFIN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: But well and part of why we are here, though, is because the top tier of candidates, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis, did not go after him, on his greatest vulnerabilities, his indictments, his unfitness, January 6. And I understand the political strategy was, that's radioactive, in a primary. But that's what -- that comes down to voter education, and explaining why he's unfit.
And Ron DeSantis said something interesting, on the stump, today. He made the statement of basically so many of Trump's former officials won't even support him. But he didn't answer the why of that.
The reason people, like me, won't support him is because we know him, and we saw that he's dangerous. That's the story they had to tell if they were going to have some kind of massive overtaking moment of Donald Trump.
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: But the reason they didn't go after him, on those issues, is because fundamentally, the Republicans don't agree that that--
FARAH GRIFFIN: But that's where voter persuasion would come in.
JENNINGS: --that they don't agree that -- they don't agree that he is the cause of this. They agree that he is the victim of it.
And when you look at the entrance polls, David just put up, that electability had fallen so far down.
URBAN: 4 percent.
JENNINGS: Also tells me that the Republican voters don't view--
FARAH GRIFFIN: About they lose with him (ph).
JENNINGS: Well they don't -- well they don't view any of those things, as inherently wrong.
(CROSSTALK)
FARAH GRIFFIN: No.
[21:20:00] JENNINGS: And I think it also speaks to the assumption that Republicans began to make, as the primary we're on, that any of these people are going to beat Joe Biden.
And early on, there was concern that Trump couldn't beat him. Now, I don't think Republicans really are worried about that. They see all these polls with him winning. So, they're going to go with the person that they think was the victim of all this stuff. Not the strategic vote.
KATE BEDINGFIELD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: But also remember--
FARAH GRIFFIN: But it just real--
BEDINGFIELD: But also remember, this is a Republican primary audience, right? This is not a general election--
AXELROD: Right.
BEDINGFIELD: --message, right? Like this -- we know, this is not a message this, you know, what Republican caucusgoers may say about, Donald Trump is fighting for me, because he's taking on the system, he's taking on the criminal justice system.
We know, in a general election, that's not an appealing argument, for moderate voters, for suburban voters, for swing voters, who are going to be a huge decider, in this election.
So, this is, it is obviously, it's an interesting discussion to have tonight. But as we're thinking about Donald Trump, moving into the general election, this is a vulnerability for him. And we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that this is a vulnerability for him.
AXELROD: Yes.
BEDINGFIELD: Not just now (ph).
AXELROD: I mean, just to your point, if this were a good winning argument, I suspect Chris Christie would still be with us.
FARAH GRIFFIN: But I still think -- and then, I hear you on that. But I think that what's the role of leaders? Leaders should speak the truth to the public, to the audience.
URBAN: Alyssa--
FARAH GRIFFIN: And I think that there was an opportunity, after the indictments came down, to talk about it. And you don't have to agree, like most Republicans think Alvin Bragg's case is totally politicized.
Stealing classified documents, and keeping them in your country club, I think anyone should be able to communicate why that's dangerous. Why we went after Hillary Clinton for it, and why it's wrong when Donald Trump does it. If you avoid that, and you basically make it, I'm less drama? There's just not enough of a juxtaposition there. JENNINGS: Well you're not -- you're not -- I mean, in the -- in our own polling, about a third of the Republicans said, a conviction would make him unfit.
URBAN: Yes.
JENNINGS: So, there's obviously an audience for that.
I just wonder, though, if you've looked at that same group, if they would say, well, but also Joe Biden is unfit. So, I'm going to end up choosing between two people who are unfit, I might as well choose the one that fights for me and prevents that (ph).
AXELROD: No. I think this next election, in many ways, is going to be an exercise, in risk assessment. I think people are going to look at--
JENNINGS: Yes.
AXELROD: --at Trump's flaws. They're going to look at what their concerns are about Biden, But I think you're quite right, that it's going to be a different battlefield than--
FARAH GRIFFIN: Yes.
AXELROD: --than -- I mean, he's playing--
CORNISH: And looking at the numbers.
AXELROD: --he's playing all home games, right now.
URBAN: Yes. But, so Axe--
CORNISH: Yes, looking at the numbers tonight, I think it was 9 percent of that entrance poll group, consider themselves moderates even.
So, I think the data does support something about what you're saying, which is those people who you're talking about, Alyssa, like, they didn't get out in the snow, or they weren't interested, or they've given up.
And I actually am going to be very curious about what the word, independents means, out of this polls, right, these people who are basically MAGA Republicans, who see themselves, outside of the system--
JENNINGS: Yes.
CORNISH: --rather than what we would think of as a--
FARAH GRIFFIN: And we should--
URBAN: I was going to--
CORNISH: --general election independent.
FARAH GRIFFIN: Sorry. We should note this isn't over. There is a chance. I mean, if Nikki Haley comes in above 20 percent, and goes in with some sort of momentum, into New Hampshire, we shouldn't declare it over, at this point. But he's clearly leading.
COOPER: David, you were getting to?
URBAN: I was just going to say, if anybody at this table thinks that Donald Trump's going to change his temperament, or message, between now and the general election? I got a bridge the size of downtown, here.
COOPER: It is proving to be a big night, for Donald Trump, in Iowa. We are still awaiting the final vote count, the outcome of the close Haley-DeSantis battle, for second place.
Stay with us, for more live coverage of the Iowa caucuses. Thanks.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:27:23]
JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. I have another key race alert for you. Let's check in on the voting board.
We have 6 percent of the estimated vote in, from Iowa. Donald Trump still far and away the leader with 49.5 percent of the vote.
Ron DeSantis, in second place with 22.4 percent of the vote. Nikki Haley in third, 20.6 percent of the vote. DeSantis and Haley have been hopscotching over each other -- leapfrogging over each other, I should say, for second place, all night, as the votes come in.
In the shallow end of the pool, Vivek Ramaswamy, 7.1 percent of the vote. Asa Hutchinson, 0.2 percent of the vote.
Let's go to the Magic Wall, find out where some of these votes are coming in, from.
John King, this is, I know, it excites you.
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: It excites me. It excites David Chalian. It's why we do this job.
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: The actual voters are speaking. Forget the pundits. Forget the polls. This is what the people of Iowa want.
KING: The first votes of the 2024 cycle, we have a long way to go, to both nominations, and then on to November. But it's great. It is great. And it's exciting, to see votes come in and to count them.
If you look, that's Donald Trump's red, in 99 counties. We still have a long way to go. The gray ones mean no votes yet. So, a long way to go in the count. We know Donald Trump's going to win Iowa, tonight. So, the big question is by how much, and what happens beneath him, right?
If it ends up like this? Trump right at 50. He'd like to be above 50. But that's right. If you round it, it's right. If it ends up with Trump at 50 or more, and this split down here, then essentially Donald Trump wins twice. Because he wins the race and his opposition is fractured and way behind him.
But we don't know if that's how we're going to end up. We know that's where we are now, which is what makes the next several hours so important, for the future of this Republican race.
How strong is he? And how strong are they? Meaning, they being those beneath him, who want to challenge him. We know Nikki Haley is relatively strong, in New Hampshire. Can she get a little bit of a boost out of Iowa? What would that be? So, we watch, as the map fills in.
And again, at the moment -- this is early, it's very, very early. So, 2 percent of the estimated vote, in from Linn County. If this stays Donald Trump red, then Donald Trump is having a very strong night. He's winning in places that he didn't win in 2016, and where he had weakness in both 2020 and in 2024.
Now, these are just Republicans. Democrats out there are going to grumble, what are you -- why are you giving him strength, in a Republican primary? He's a Republican. But that's the beginning, right? It's the beginning. It's a long process to November.
The first thing he has to do is prove, as Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, say we need to move on. We need a new nominee. He can't win in November.
The first thing you have to prove as a candidate is that you have your party consolidated. Then, you have a couple months, few months, from now to November, to try to work on your other weaknesses.
The first test for Donald Trump is how much is he in control of the Republican Party? This is a very conservative state. It's not representative all of America. But that would be a good start. The question is, is that where we end, as we start to count votes? Where are we? 929 (ph) in the east.
[21:30:00]
So, there are a lot of places, where they're still voting. The larger caucus sites. The candidates spoke late. They're still counting votes.
TAPPER: Yes.
KING: We got a long way to go.
And so, what are we looking at? Number one, I just want to see if any more votes. No.
So, we saw this early on. Boris Sanchez is in Polk County. We saw a precinct, where Trump was doing pretty well. Again, that would be good news for Donald Trump. If you're doing well in Des Moines, and the suburbs around it, that's a sign of their strength, in a place where Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis were looking to break out.
TAPPER: Those are more college-educated, more moderate Republicans.
KING: Right. Right. Right. You make a great point there. So, let's look at this. Let's just look at the state, right?
The dividing line, in American politics, right now, is education. Period. Period. People with a college degree, in general elections, are more likely to vote Democratic. People with a non-college degree, are more -- not only more likely to be Republican, but within the Republican Party, they're more likely to be Trump voters.
If Donald Trump can improve his standing, throughout the primary season, not just tonight, in Iowa? If he does tonight in Iowa, that will be interesting. The question is, can he keep doing it, right? Is it a one-off? Or can he keep doing it? If Donald--
TAPPER: So, this has been a -- this has been a--
KING: Right.
TAPPER: --group of relative weakness for Trump.
KING: That is why Donald Trump loses the suburbs. And if you lose the suburbs, you lose in November. Period. That's how it works.
But if he can keep these voters, and start to rebuild, with these voters, he's already a force to be reckoned with. If the election were tomorrow, Biden-Trump, Trump would probably win, most likely win. All the data tells you that. Now, we're not in November. We're not in November. And Biden has yet to address this, and get at it and everything else.
But this is Trump's base, right? So, this is Iowa, right? This is statewide. You see that -- no college degree far outpaces, nearly 58 percent far outpaces college graduates, right? And so, Donald Trump wins these voters. This is his soft spot.
So, you just mentioned Polk County. Let's just go to Polk County, bring this -- let me bring this back out here. Hold on. Let me try this again. Just give me a little bit of grief, tonight. But let's bring this over here. Put this up here. And then, we'll bring this out and see what happens. All right.
TAPPER: There you go.
KING: So now, it switches to Polk County.
Just needed a little help, right?
So, look at this. It's even, more even, right? Statewide, more no college degrees. In this, this suburban -- urban suburban areas, you have more college graduates. If Donald Trump is running strong, in a place, where the education
line tells you, traditionally he should be weak, that's a sign of a guy, who is at least slowly, or at least in one place, addressing some of his weaknesses.
Again, it's one night, it's one thing. But this is what we're going to watch, as the night goes on.
I say that, and I just want to flip off, and come back here. Let's come back out. Let's just turn it off. Maybe it'll help me this way. See you later.
And you come back to, again, it's Polk County, 556 votes, very, very early.
So, I'm saying things based on what I'm looking at now. Just want to tell everybody at home, we have hours to go.
TAPPER: Right.
KING: And so, sometimes, you get a snapshot of one or two precincts, and you think wow. And then, we've been through this before, a couple hours later, you're like, never mind. So, we have a long way to go, in counting the votes.
But if you're in a campaign headquarters, you're doing what we're doing. Where are we now?
TAPPER: Right.
KING: You're making phone calls, about what the weaknesses are.
TAPPER: What votes are outstanding.
KING: Yes. Yes, if you're in the Trump campaign headquarters, you're happy. You're back above 50, now. We just got a few more votes there.
This is the muddle, at the moment. Donald Trump benefits from a muddle, just like he did in 2016, he would again in 20 -- in 2024, if the opposition is fractured, and behind him.
He came out of Iowa, remember, in second place. But then he went to New Hampshire, just won. Went on to Nevada, South Carolina, just won. But it was enough. Winner take all rules in the Republican Party.
So, you might say, aha, he's only at 50 percent. Once you get out of Iowa, you get to a lot of these later states, with the closed primaries, he's going to get all or most of the delegates. If you care? If you want to look over your shoulder, right now? Ultimately, if it's a contested nomination, it's about this, right? It's about this.
Now, where we are, right now? Donald Trump will get 16, and Haley, four, DeSantis, four, of this 40 delegates. So, we're not anywhere to go there. But I show this just because this is what, if we have a contested Republican primary, Jake, we're going to spend a lot of time, over the next month or two, on this. If we don't have a contested Republican primary, and Donald Trump just runs up those numbers? Then, it won't matter. So, that is the challenge.
Are we talking about delegate rules, six, seven weeks from now? If we are? Donald Trump has a challenge on his hand. If we're not? It's a blowout.
TAPPER: Yes. And just to give people some sense of historical context, of this. For a non-incumbent president in the modern era? They've been holding caucuses in Iowa, since literally 1840s.
KING: Right.
TAPPER: But the modern era of caucuses, where Iowa goes first, started in the 1970s. The best performance of a non-incumbent president was George W. Bush, in 2000.
KING: Right.
TAPPER: And he got 41 percent.
KING: 41 percent.
TAPPER: 41 percent. So, Donald Trump is beating that.
KING: Well the Republican--
TAPPER: Well this is the general election.
KING: Yes. The Republican primary is not in here. Sorry, I didn't check.
TAPPER: No problem.
KING: How many elections (ph) we had in here.
TAPPER: I'm very demanding.
KING: Yes. But that's very good.
TAPPER: I know.
KING: No, no, no, it's good. I just want to see if we could actually show the numbers.
TAPPER: But this--
KING: But it's 41 percent.
TAPPER: But this number, even if it's not 50 percent, it's still historically--
KING: Yes. TAPPER: --unprecedented.
KING: Yes. And so that -- again, there are going to be a lot of arguments, in the Republican Party, and those for Trump and against Trump. And in political debate circles, the punditry circles out there, of what's the line of strength right there.
TAPPER: Right.
KING: The Trump campaign will tell you, that's a historic way, right? If that's where it ends up, above the 41 percentage? And then, other people say, oh, no, no, no, he's an incumbent president.
TAPPER: Right.
KING: These Republican voters think he's an incumbent president.
TAPPER: Right.
[21:35:00]
KING: So, these debates will continue, as they have since he came down that escalator--
TAPPER: Right.
KING: --in 2015, in the sense that what is it going to take? Where's the trapdoor for Donald Trump? Trump critics have been having this conversation forever, trying to find the trapdoor. And every time, they have an aha, he's under 50, or aha, this.
TAPPER: Or, can you add up DeSantis and Haley, and it adds up to more than Trump, which is not the case, right now.
KING: Right. If he's below 50, that'll be the conversation that he's essentially the incumbent president, or he's by far the most formidable force, in the Republican Party.
All the House Republican leadership is for him. Most of the other establishment, the new establishment is for him. He used to be the anti-establishment guy.
TAPPER: Right.
KING: The new Republican establishment is for him. That'll be the argument, if he is about 50.
But OK, if, again, to game this out? Because it's early in the night. When we have a lot of votes, we'll know the answers, to some of these questions. To game that out. He's below 50, meaning mathematically, somebody could beat him.
But do DeSantis, Haley--
TAPPER: Right.
KING: --Ramaswamy, Hutchinson, all go into a room, and say which one of us? Unlikely.
TAPPER: Yes. Although that did happen, in 2020, with the Democrats, against Bernie Sanders--
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: --trying to defeat Bernie Sanders.
I'm not comparing Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Everybody calm down.
Erin Burnett?
BURNETT: Jake.
Abby, we were talking about this earlier, as we were all talking about these votes coming in.
If it is a very close race, for a second, and that's how it ends up, that you have Haley and DeSantis, very close? Some conventional wisdom, might be like, OK, great. Well, then they both have a ticket. They both move on.
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN HOST: Yes.
BURNETT: But you are raising the question about whether that's really the case, when you look at the time, and the money--
PHILLIP: Yes.
BURNETT: --DeSantis has spent in Iowa.
PHILLIP: I mean, let's be real. DeSantis planted himself in Iowa. He's got all the big endorsements, the governor of the state, the biggest evangelical leader, in the state. He's spent tens of millions of dollars, here in Iowa. An almost tied second place would not be the victory that his campaign is looking for.
A couple of days ago, I spoke with a top fundraiser, for DeSantis, and supporter for him, in the state, who was pretty plain. It needs to be a strong second. Otherwise, a lot of people, like him, people who are raising money for DeSantis, who are big supporters, who are flexible, at the end of the day, who could go to Trump, or not go to Trump? They will be looking to see what's next. So, it's not about the conversation we're having at this table.
For a candidate, like DeSantis, especially, it's about what are his donors going to do? What are those -- a lot of DeSantis' supporters, the actual voters. These are people who don't mind Trump all that much. There's a lot of overlap between those voters. DeSantis says it himself. What do they do, if they feel like all of the effort put into the state, was for essentially a tied race, with the next candidate, who did not spend as much time here?
BURNETT: And as we wait for those results, Kaitlan, of course, he's signaled very clearly that he's in it, right? He's got the Town Hall with Wolf, tomorrow night. He's going to South Carolina, tomorrow morning. Clearly, not sleeping tonight. He's trying to make it very clear, he's not going anywhere.
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN HOST: Yes. Well, we'll let Governor DeSantis obviously define that for himself.
But I think all politicians say that they're in the race, until they're not. I mean, Chris Christie was telling us just two weeks ago, that he was taking this race all the way to the Republican convention. And then, of course, we saw him drop out, last Wednesday.
I think, right now, what's happening in DeSantis, and Haley worlds that we're hearing from, is a bit of surprise, at how quickly the race was called for Donald Trump. Some anger from them over it.
But really, they're staying pretty tight-lipped, right now, as we're waiting to see what it's going to look like, who is going to be in that second-place position, and what it means for the shape of this race.
BURNETT: Yes.
COLLINS: I think overall, though, what we're seeing, tonight, and what they're also recognizing privately, at least some of them, to me, is that Donald Trump's grasp, on the Republican Party, is as firm as it's ever been, maybe potentially more so than it has been previously. And so, that is the question of what this looks like.
And when you look at the 91 criminal counts, all the civil suits, including the one that he's facing tomorrow? I mean, also look at what Chris Sununu of New Hampshire is saying, and Kim Reynolds? The two governors here, in these two first states, have both said that they would still vote for Donald Trump, if he's the nominee. Chris Sununu, saying even if he's a convicted felon.
BURNETT: Right.
COLLINS: And so, it does speak to the length of what the resistance to Donald Trump is.
MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And look, DeSantis may want to get -- compete in New Hampshire. But he really has not put in the kind of investment that other campaigns have.
In fact, there's been zero pro-DeSantis dollars spent, in January, in New Hampshire TV ads, compared to $8 million for Haley's groups, $8 million for Trump, shows you how they're thinking about it.
And Trump is trying to make it seem like it's a foregone conclusion that he is on the march to the nomination. I'm told that he has been pressing members of Congress, in particular, to get behind him.
One person that I am told that he is in talks with, right now, to try to get an endorsement, is Senator Tim Scott, the former presidential candidate, someone who's a South Carolina Senator, someone who was appointed by Nikki Haley, to his seat. BURNETT: Yes.
RAJU: He's trying to get him to endorse him, potentially before the South Carolina primary, in an effort is show a blow of sorts, to Nikki Haley, if it does come to that.
[21:40:00]
I'm told it's not a done deal yet. But that just shows you the maneuvering behind-the-scenes, as Trump tries to make it clear that he's the nomination, and wants the party to follow him on.
BURNETT: Well that is a -- would be obviously a significant thing, if that happens.
All right, let's go to Dana, back in Clive.
And Dana, you have been in an incredibly crowded room. You heard all the speeches. And now, they're counting?
BASH: It's happening. Everybody voted.
And the fine people here, who are doing their civic duties, went around the entire area, which is thinning out a little bit, collected all the paper ballots, in these bins, right here. They've just finished sorting them. So now, each of the bin is assigned to a candidate. And now, they're starting to vote.
So, we can go around the other side. Come with me, Don (ph), and we're going to listen. As the votes are happening.
First, they're starting, I see here, with Vivek Ramaswamy. So, let's listen.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vivek, 11. Vivek, 12.
BASH: You can see on Mona's (ph) pad here. She's doing it the old- fashioned way, with hashtags, right Mona (ph)?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We'll count them. Every vote counts.
BASH: And I should say that Mona (ph), you can probably see here, is a supporter of Ron DeSantis. And we have a supporter of Vivek Ramaswamy. And you see down at the end there, Michelle (ph) is a supporter of Donald Trump. And they're all getting together to vote -- to count these votes, as one team.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vivek, 22. Vivek, 23. Vivek, 24. Vivek, 25. Vivek, 26. Vivek, 27. Vivek, 28.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's right now?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, no, no--
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vivek, 29. Vivek, 30. Vivek, 31. Vivek, 32. Vivek, 33. Vivek, 34. Vivek, 35. Vivek, 36. Vivek, 37. Vivek, 38. Vivek, 39. And Vivek, 40.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK. So, right now, we have 40. Let's put them in. Before we do have the official tablet, let's put them in. And then, if anybody wants a recount, we'll be able to do a recount.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, we've completed Vivek.
OK. Let's start with DeSantis, please.
And what we're doing here is we're making sure that we're looking at the front of the ticket, and also the back, to make sure that it's in the correct precinct.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You can track (ph) county.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He gets higher. Yes. Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK. Go ahead.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right. DeSantis, one. Don't need this. DeSantis, two. DeSantis, three. DeSantis, four. DeSantis, five. DeSantis, six. DeSantis, seven. DeSantis, eight. DeSantis, nine. DeSantis, 10. DeSantis, 11. DeSantis, 12. DeSantis, 13. DeSantis, 14. DeSantis, 15. DeSantis, 16. DeSantis, 17. DeSantis, 18. DeSantis, 19. DeSantis, 20. DeSantis, 21. DeSantis, 22. DeSantis, 23. DeSantis, 24. DeSantis, 25. DeSantis, 26. DeSantis, 27. DeSantis, 28. DeSantis, 29. DeSantis, 30. DeSantis -- oh, Clive-4.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Clive-4? OK, let's set that aside.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Clive-4, we need a delivery.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I can bring it over. I'm a DeSantis, so.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This doesn't count one.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK. So, no--
[21:45:00]
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That should -- yes, it should not count. Should not count.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, because there are -- OK. So, we need -- we need to--
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's a comeback (ph).
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK. We need to--
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. We need--
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hold that.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Set that aside.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hang on.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Set that aside.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The next one I picked out doesn't have a--
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A sticker on the back?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: --a precinct.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Could be a mistake. Let's--
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK. We just--
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: --let's set it aside for right now.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. Where we at? 25?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: 20 -- 20.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Five, 10, 15, 20, 25. 30, DeSantis.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So, 30, DeSantis.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: 31.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: 31.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: DeSantis, 32. DeSantis, 33. DeSantis, 34. DeSantis, 35. DeSantis, 36. DeSantis, 37. DeSantis, 38. DeSantis, 39. DeSantis, 40. DeSantis, 41. DeSantis, 42. DeSantis, 43. DeSantis, 44. DeSantis, 45. DeSantis, 46. DeSantis, 47. DeSantis, 48. DeSantis, 49. DeSantis, 50. DeSantis, 51. DeSantis, 52. DeSantis, 53.
TAPPER: We're going to go back to the voting, in Clive.
But, right now, let me bring you a key race alert. And let's look at the actual votes coming in. We have a lot more of the vote in, now. 34 percent of the estimated vote in, for the Iowa Republican caucuses. That's more than a third of it.
And right now, Donald Trump is far and away in the lead, with 52 percent. That's 22,815 votes. Ron DeSantis maintaining his second- place position, at 20.3 percent. Nikki Haley at third, 19.2 percent. Pulling out the rear, Vivek Ramaswamy, 7.7 percent. Asa Hutchinson, 0.2 percent.
So, Donald Trump maintaining his -- at least, as of right now, with about a third of the vote in, historically massive lead, John King. Tell us more. And I do want to know where we are still waiting for votes from?
KING: Well, as you can see, the gray counties mean no votes at all just yet. That's 30 left, 30 of the, so.
TAPPER: And those are, generally speaking, going to be Trump counties?
KING: Yes, up here is a little bit more iffy. But yes, rural here, rural here. So, 30 of the 99 counties, which means 69 of the counties have now reported at least some results. So, that's progress. That's progress.
And as you see, they're doing this by hand. And most of -- it's hand ballots, paper ballots, they count them up. But they're moving on. They're moving on quite efficiently. And you see all the campaigns, they're counting. It's wonderful to watch.
Where Dana Bash is, so I'm going to pull up Polk County here. This is Des Moines. Clive is unique. It's right out here. It's right out here on the border. She's in Polk County. But it also -- Clive also extends over into neighboring Dallas County. It's one of the fastest growing areas in Iowa.
The Des Moines suburbs, you've been there. I mean, 10 campaigns ago was my first campaign, to go to Des Moines, in the suburbs, now, and to remember what they were like in 1987, and 1988. It is literally A and Z.
And so, that's where you have new voters. That's where you have suburban voters. That's where you have the higher college education. The insurance industry, finance industries. The Des Moines suburbs are just gang -- growing like gangbusters. Younger people as well. So, watching the votes there is very important.
It's if -- again, if you're going to say, this is Trump's party, all that red, that tells you this is Trump's state, and this is Trump's party. The question is, where are the new people going? And how -- are they for Trump? What's happening? So that's -- it's fascinating to watch a place like that.
Earlier on, Nikki Haley was leading out here, in Johnson County. Again, about 60 percent of the vote count, ways to go. She's close. But Trump has now pulled ahead in this county.
Again, if Donald Trump is winning, in a county, over here, in eastern Iowa, that has a big college, in the middle of it right there, that's a sign of strength for Donald Trump.
The one place, where Nikki Haley remains ahead. But we're still very early in the vote count here. This has not changed in quite some time. This is where we were talking to Kate Bolduan, earlier. Again, seventh of the 99 counties in terms of population, a Democratic county, come November.
TAPPER: University area. Iowa State.
KING: University, Iowa State right there.
Again, you're looking at Des Moines, suburban -- growing suburban area, in the southern part of the county, right here. Let's watch as that goes in.
But as this fills in, Dubuque, right, Dubuque County here, Donald Trump with -- again, a long way to go. But 48 percent of the vote, in a place. If you're just looking back to the population centers, Donald Trump is winning. This is the one--
TAPPER: DeSantis, yes.
KING: Yes, the one county for DeSantis, right now, is Sioux County, very conservative county.
Again, right out here, South Dakota and Nebraska, if you go this way, and over a little bit, or this way, and down, South Dakota, and then Nebraska down a little bit. Very conservative rural county. Again, 30 percent of the vote, let's see where we go.
But he's in a tug of war.
[21:50:00]
This is what happened in 2016. This was Cruz and Trump, in the rural areas, something like this. And Cruz won. Trump was a second, and went on to New Hampshire.
This is what DeSantis needs to do everywhere.
So, you see it here. But you come out here, and it's mostly Trump. So, let's just take one thing and take a peek here. Let's just take a peek.
Where is DeSantis running second? So, you see all the counties where we have votes?
TAPPER: Yes.
KING: The ones that are still lit up is where DeSantis is running second. So, Trump is winning. In most of the places, Trump is winning, DeSantis is running second. So, it's a version of Trump-Cruz 2016, except Trump's on top, and by more. That's his hold on the party.
Trump and Cruz were battling for the conservative vote, the evangelical vote, the rural vote, the farmer vote, in 2016. Now, it's Donald Trump's. And Ron DeSantis is trying to pull second place from that.
So, let me come back out. I hit the wrong button. Let's bring this back in here.
I just want to close this, and come back, just to see in places where Nikki Haley is running second. Again, all that red is Donald Trump. Where is she running second? Some. Some. Fewer than DeSantis. But some.
And then, if you notice, where Nikki Haley is running second, with some exceptions, like down here, tend to be around your city, and suburban areas, which should be a sign of strength, for her. Interesting to see that down here.
I just want to see by how far she's second. OK. She's second. But that's a drop. I mean, if that -- you know, that's 95 percent too, in these small counties. So, she's second. But I don't know what you'd call it. That's not a moral victory, when it's 61 to 18.
So, let's turn this off and just come back to the full count. Again, Trump, 15,000-plus, just went up a little bit more, as we fill in right now.
And it's going to go fast now, in the places that it took a little longer, maybe for the candidate representatives give their speeches, in places where you have the city dots, where you have more people. So, it just takes a little bit longer, to get through the process. Now that you see it filling in. Every five or 10 minutes, now, we're going to get a decent amount of more votes.
But this has held. This has held. And, so has this. The question about -- about 37 percent. This can be a little bit off. But we're roughly a little over a third of the vote.
TAPPER: Still they're in--
KING: Or closer (ph) of the vote.
TAPPER: They are in a tug of war here.
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: I mean, like, either one of them could end -- could end up, in second place. So, I wouldn't--
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: --I wouldn't bet on either one, right now.
KING: Right. I would not -- I would -- this is the one -- especially, again, when you come out to these big suburb -- the bigger suburban areas, right?
I say, big? Somebody, who lives in Philadelphia, or Los Angeles, is saying, give me a break.
For Iowa. Your more population centers, the suburban areas here, you're at 1 percent of the vote, right? So, we got a long way to go. Let's move over to Dallas County over here. This is Boone County, up
here. You're at 33 percent. Drop down here to Dallas County. They -- this -- by ours, this might be -- if that's right, if that's right, that's a disappointment for Haley, right there. It's more rural as you get over to the west.
And drop down straight down from Des Moines, in Warren County, 80 percent.
So, you're looking at -- you're looking there, places where you might see Haley, boom, it's got to be in the suburbs, around these population centers.
And again, Woodbury County, only 2 percent of the vote in.
Yes. So, we have -- we have a ways to go, to see in the battle for second place, that's kind of the larger -- the largest pockets of votes are going to come in from the suburbs, around the cities. And we're not there yet. We just have a long way to go.
I just thought, let's just check Linn County, one more time. Yes, a third of the vote counted.
So, the battle for second is going to be fought in the votes that are being counted right now.
TAPPER: Yes. All right.
Still ahead, will Donald Trump and the night above 50 percent? And will Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley lock up that coveted second place? But stay with us, as the votes are being counted, at Iowa caucus sites. The numbers keep changing. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:57:12]
TAPPER: And we're back with a key race alert. Let's take another look at the vote board here. With 38 percent of the vote in, Donald Trump still with a massive lead, 52.2 percent of the vote. That's 25,694 votes. We have already declared that he will be the winner.
In the race for second place, Ron DeSantis in second place, right now, with 20.3 percent of the vote. Nikki Haley, very close behind him, 18.9 percent of the vote. They're both between 9,000 and 10,000 votes.
In the far-far behind, Vivek Ramaswamy, 7.7 percent of the vote. Asa Hutchinson, with 0.2 percent of the vote.
We are expecting Donald Trump, to speak momentarily, from his campaign headquarters, in Des Moines.
Let's go to Clive, Iowa, where Dana Bash is.
Again, Dana Bash, we were watching the counting. Tell us what happened. BASH: It's over. And Mona (ph) here has just -- with her friends and neighbors, who are on different sides, but counted together.
And thank you, for giving us the results, live here.
This is Clive-3. It's in Polk County. It's Precinct 3.
Take it away Mona (ph).
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK. So, we sorted all of the different candidates, into the different baskets. And then, we checked, to make sure that it had the name on the front, and the correct precinct, on the back. And then, we started.
So, Asa -- or excuse me, I'm going to start down here.
Ryan Binkley got one vote.
Asa Hutchinson, got three votes.
We have one blank and one DeSantis vote. But there was no precinct number on the back, so we could not count that. OK.
Then, I'm going to go from top to bottom. So, Donald Trump got 61 votes. Ron DeSantis got 77 votes. Vivek Ramaswamy--
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That one's mine (ph).
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I see. That's why we have watchers.
OK. Donald Trump, I put that on the wrong line, Donald Trump got 61 votes. Vivek Ramaswamy got 40 votes. And Nikki Haley got 92 votes.
So, I'm going to read them back, and just make sure everybody is good with this. And I want -- I want all the campaigns, to make sure you take a picture of this, so we're all on the same page.
And we're going to keep this sheet. So, if anybody has any questions, if anybody wants a recount, we're going to be available, to do that.
BASH: So, just to recap, Mona (ph), what you just said, if you look at the totals here, it looks like Nikki Haley won this particular precinct?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, in Clive-3, Nikki Haley won with 92. Ron DeSantis came in second with 77.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Donald Trump.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Donald Trump came in third with 61. And Vivek Ramaswamy came in fourth with 40.
BASH: Thank you so much, for giving us that information.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're welcome.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you for coming tonight (ph).
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
BASH: Thank you.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. Thanks.
BASH: So, Jake, this is just one -- this is, I believe, the largest of the three precincts that are here. There are two others, one smaller one. I think there are only 36 people, who voted there. Donald Trump won there. And then, a third, where Nikki Haley got a 122 votes. After that, Ron DeSantis. After that, Donald Trump. Jake?
