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CNN Live Event/Special
CNN Election Night In America. Aired 7-8p ET
Aired November 05, 2024 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[19:00:01]
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Jake, that's what we're going to find out. Again, 11,000 votes four years ago, the results in battleground Georgia to come in just about any second now.
And again, you look at Atlanta, you look at the suburbs and you see -- see all that red is Donald Trump's base coming out to vote.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: All right. And we are just moments away from the first big round of poll closings. Voting is about to end in six states, six, with a total of 60 electoral votes at stake. Keep an eye on the pivotal battleground of Georgia as most voting is ending there right now.
And CNN can bring you a projection now. CNN projects that Kentucky goes to Donald Trump. Donald Trump will win the commonwealth of Kentucky with its eight electoral votes, and CNN can also project that Vermont will go to Kamala Harris with its three electoral votes. Kamala Harris wins the state of Vermont.
It is too early to project in Georgia, Indiana South Carolina and Virginia. Let's take a look at the electoral map now to see where the candidates stand, 270 electoral votes are needed to win. Donald Trump has eight. Kamala Harris has three electoral votes.
Let's bring you a key race alert now: Indiana, Donald Trump in the lead there with 60.3 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 38.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has an 86,829 vote lead. That's with an estimated 13 percent of the vote in.
Let's go to John King now at the magic wall -- John.
KING: And so, Jake, now, we wait, right? You have the states that we've projected, Kentucky and Vermont. Those are the ones you expect. But so what are you going to get here? You see some first votes in Florida. Look at that lets just take it out, okay? It's just south here.
It's in Osceola County, just south of Orlando. We like to look at votes when they come in. Right, Florida tends to be a reliably red state. Again though, be a test of whether Harris can improve their standing in the suburbs or put it this way, whether Trump can improve his standings in the suburbs, whether Trumps collapse in the suburbs continues. First of all, it's in votes in Florida always interesting to take a look, but what we're waiting for is the battleground just north of Florida, which will be essential in this race. Again, vice president's easiest path is those blue wall states. But Georgia, as a competitive state, what are we looking for, right?
Number one, we're looking for the Democratic foundation, which is Fulton County. Sara Murray noted. Victor Blackwell is in the suburbs here. Some polling places will stay open, but we should get votes pretty quickly. And when you're looking at Fulton County, Atlanta is here. You see how it stretches a lot of suburbs around it, right?
We're at zero right now. What are you looking for? You're trying to see if she can not only match the president's percentage, get 73 percent of the vote, but by the end of the night, sometimes this count could last into tomorrow is the map, the math margin, right, because if you look here and you come out here, there are 159 counties, 159 counties in Georgia.
A lot of them are like this -- I'm just picking one randomly. They're small, they're rural. But Trump runs it up so were going to watch. That is the Trump base in rural America coming out in battleground Georgia, it is absolutely essential to his math that he run it up big in places like that.
But if that is the case and that's what we expect to be the case, the Trump base comes out. Then the key will be does that, A, does the Harris base come out in Fulton County, Atlanta. And then what happens here.
Clayton County just below, predominantly African-American, strong Democratic suburb, you need to run up the number. But it's not just the percentage. What's the raw math. Are Democrats coming out to vote?
Democrats need high turnout to offset the Trump rural numbers. So that's one test. And then for me, once you get out to the -- you get further out here. Let's go out where Victor Blackwell is, out here in Gwinnett County. Look at that. Joe Biden got 58 percent of the vote, Jake, right?
You don't have to go back too far in history. It was just in 2012. Mitt Romney won this county. Four years before that, John McCain won this county. This is the change in the American suburbs, right? Georgia was a red state then.
But look at Romney's number, the Republican share in 2012, in the suburban area is 54 percent, right. That's what we're looking at tonight. How does Donald Trump fare in the suburbs right? It goes down to 45 percent under Trump in 2016. He still won Georgia, then at 45 percent.
But then you come to 2020 and Trumps share drops to 40 percent. You cannot win in a competitive state if you are getting trounced like that in the suburbs, so can Trump get that number back up to 42, 43, 44 if he can, he's in play. If he can't, then this is -- you know, the tug of war in the state. As long as Harris gets out her base there, there's a -- there's a flip side responsibility for her.
But this, we talked a bit earlier about this. This to me, Georgia and North Carolina demographically, they are just evenly split their tug of war. So we're going to see and it does its cliche. It does come down to turnout.
TAPPER: So can you take me to Florida?
KING: Sure.
We've got to come back to 2024. You want to see results. Okay --
TAPPER: I think we have it -- I think we have a million votes in from Florida about well, no, not a million. What do we have?
KING: A hundred ninety-four thousand.
TAPPER: A hundred ninety-four thousand.
KING: Yeah. You are. You're over a million --
TAPPER: Over a million votes.
So -- so this is obviously a state that we do expect ultimately is inclined to go red, although polls are still open there. We should -- we should note. Is there anything we can divine from where the vote has come in? Because it's more than a million votes have come in, and Donald Trump with a 224,000 plus lead right now.
KING: The number one thing I would divine is we have another example, this time in a very large and very complicated state that, you know, people have learned the lessons -- built on the lessons of 2020.
[19:05:08]
And that they're counting early votes and getting early votes out fast. And so that's a good thing for democracy, right? You know --
TAPPER: So these -- are these all early votes?
KING: Red state and blue state. I assume they are. David Chalian, can you correct me if I'm not. Some of it could be a modest number of election votes. But normally when you see a big, big batch of votes come in like that, it's early votes. So, correct me if I'm wrong.
So what can you glean from this? So you just want to look at big population centers, Duval County. This is one of the swing counties, although Florida used to be a very competitive state. You would say who's winning Duval County?
TAPPER: Right.
KING: If you want to say who's winning the governor's race or who's winning, you know, Bush versus Gore. You know, you go to Duval County.
It's not so much as a competitive state anymore, but it is a competitive county as you see right there, 50 to 49. So you go back in time and you look, you know, it was 51-48, right. So you could argue we need to get the final results. You could argue if you want, Donald Trump's a little bit more competitive this time if that result holds, we'll see how that plays out, right?
This is his home state now. But we'll see. But it's early to look at that. But that's one of the things you look at.
The other thing you look at is we don't really have it yet, is here, the I-4 corridor, Tampa, Saint Petersburg, Orlando, over to the beach and you see it and then, you know, the Democrats again. I don't have no expectation that the Democrats are going to win Florida, but again, you will see, are Democrats turning out? Are Democrats turning out?
There's some -- you know, there's been a lot of reporting about this. Harris lost a little tiny bit of the Jewish vote because of the Israel unhappiness over Israel. Gaza and how she has talked about that and the White House, you'll see a little bit of that down here. It's more important when you get to suburban Philadelphia and some and out in the Detroit area as well around metro.
So you might get some clues out of Florida. My expectation is that Florida will stay that color, but well keep an eye on it. Sometimes you get surprised.
TAPPER: Right. And one of the other things that's interesting about trying to divine a national view of, based on Florida which is that as I recall, Governor DeSantis, who's a very conservative Republican governor, I think he won Miami-Dade when he ran for reelection. Is that not right?
KING: We can go. I think we can look at --
TAPPER: Do you have the governors? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be, I shouldn't be.
KING: No, it's all right. If you want to look, there we go.
TAPPER: Yeah.
KING: So that's -- that's the Rubio race. We got to come to governor yes. He won. He won Broward.
TAPPER: He won. He won -- Crist won Broward.
KING: Crist won Broward. Sorry. DeSantis won Miami-Dade.
TAPPER: DeSantis won Miami-Dade.
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: And that was -- it was suggested that he also maybe did better than traditionally Republicans had done with the Hispanic vote, which is obviously significant and that's one of the areas that people -- that people wonder about the vulnerabilities that Harris might have in the -- KING: Absolutely. Although I would say in Florida, you have the most
complicated, diverse Hispanic vote than in any state in America. It's just much more diverse than in other places, which what makes it more complicated and fascinating. But it has become -- you're absolutely right that it has become especially down here, more Republican.
In other states, it was -- Obama won two thirds of the Hispanic vote and now its become more of a fight in some of the other battlegrounds. But here, this is why one of the reasons Florida has become reliably red is because of the Republican success there.
I would also argue because of weak Democratic candidates, but we'll have that -- save that conversation for another day, because this is what we're worried about tonight.
TAPPER: Indeed, indeed. David Chalian has more exit polling from north of Florida, in Georgia, the battleground that were watching right now. David, how is the vote splitting among key groups of Georgia voters?
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yeah. Now that the polls have closed, Jake, we can look at some of those key demographics. So let's take a look at the African-American vote in Georgia. It's making up 30 percent of the electorate, according to these early exit polls, Harris obviously winning it big, 86 percent to 12 percent.
But I want to note here that 86 percent number, four years ago, Joe Biden had 88 percent a tick higher of support of the African American vote. And Trump's 12 percent, he is a tick higher as than he was four years ago when that was 11 percent. But it's roughly the same with the Black vote. What we saw here.
Look at younger voters, under the age of 30. Harris is winning them. They make up 18 percent of the electorate. Harris is winning them 60 percent to 39 percent. She is doing better with young voters in Georgia than Joe Biden was doing against Trump four years ago. Trump got 43 percent of the youth vote in Georgia four years ago. He's down to 39 percent now. So that will be something to watch.
And then non-college white voters, this is obviously Trumps base 32 percent, roughly a third of the Georgia electorate are white, non- college educated voters. Trump's winning 81 percent of them. That is a bit better than he was doing four years ago, though. Four years ago, it was 35 percent of the electorate.
So as a share of the overall electorate has come down Harris is winning 18 percent of them a tick under where Biden was four years ago. This will be the story of these exit polls in Georgia. Independent voters, they make up 31 percent of the electorate. That is a slightly larger share than what they made up four years ago. Trump is winning them by 11 points in these early exit poll results, 54 percent to 30 percent.
Jake, four years ago, Joe Biden won independent voters in Georgia when he won the state by nine points.
[19:10:02] So we've seen a swing of 20 points towards Trump in terms of the margin from nine point advantage four years ago with independents for Biden to now an 11-point advantage with independents for Trump in Georgia, Jake.
TAPPER: Wow. David Chalian.
And, Dana that is really significant. We see some incremental changes here and there when it comes to young voters. She's doing slightly better, non-college whites, he's doing slightly better. But that independent swing is wild.
BASH: It's a -- it's a huge swing.
And I just want to underscore what David said, it is a bigger percentage of the vote share. Last time around, it was 28 percent, independents, made up 28 percent of the Georgia vote. And now it is 31 -- excuse me, 30 percent. And excuse me. Yeah. No, I was right, 31 percent.
And it is a total flip. It's a complete flip. Donald Trump is doing so much better about with independents than Kamala Harris and Joe Biden kind of ran away with independents four years ago. And of course, he won the state.
CHRIS WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR, THE CHRIS WALLACE SHOW: Yeah, I'm trying to figure out why, you know what the reason is that he would have there would be this dramatic flip of double digits in independents and I am -- something you don't often hear in election coverage. It's something of a loss as to how you explain that independents would have gone so much more for Trump, this time than they did for Biden last time.
BASH: Audie, hang on. We're going to go over to Jake for a projection.
TAPPER: And we can bring you another CNN projection. CNN projects that Indiana will go to Donald Trump, Indiana, with its 11 electoral votes, will go to Donald Trump.
Let's look at the electoral map now to see where the candidates stack up. Remember, 270 needed to win. Donald Trump has 19 electoral votes Kamala Harris has three electoral votes they both still have a lot of -- a lot of electoral votes to get to get up to 270.
Let's do a key race alert for you now. In Florida, Donald Trump is in the lead with 51.3 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 47.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has a 138,912 vote lead -- I'm sorry, that just went up a 224,914 vote lead. The votes are coming in as I do this.
That's with more than a third 35 percent of the estimated vote in from Florida with its big fat packet of 30 electoral votes. The commonwealth of Virginia, slightly more competitive.
Donald Trump in the lead right now with 58.7 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 40.6 percent of the vote. That's only with a handful of votes in as of right now, about 1,500 votes. As we stand by for results from the crucial state of Georgia, we are
counting down to the end of voting in the battleground state of North Carolina. This historic election night is just getting started. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:16:45]
TAPPER: Welcome back and we're standing by for the end of voting in yet another crucial battleground state.
Let's check the fight for the electoral vote so far. Donald Trump has 19 electoral votes. Kamala Harris has three electoral votes, 270 electoral votes needed to win. And now we have a key race alert.
In the state of Georgia, Donald Trump is in the lead with 51 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 48.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 4,556 vote lead. That's with only an estimated 3 percent of the vote in, the polls just closed at 7:00.
In the state of Florida, Donald Trump in the lead, his new home state 53.2 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 45.9 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a healthy 438,912-vote lead. That's with half of the vote in 50 percent of the estimated vote.
In the Commonwealth of Virginia, Donald Trump in the lead there with 58.5 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with 40.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 2,871 vote lead. Still a lot of votes to come in from the Commonwealth of Virginia.
We're coming up on another critical round of poll closings in the presidential race at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. That's just minutes from now 37 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House are at stake.
When voting ends in North Carolina and Ohio and West Virginia, North Carolina is one of the seven crucial presidential battlegrounds tonight, as its changing demographics have made it more competitive for Democrats than in some past elections Kamala Harris is in a heated battle right now with Donald Trump in North Carolina, after he won that state in both of his previous presidential campaigns narrowly last time.
Abby Phillip has some new information from Harris campaign headquarters at Howard University.
Abby, tell us more.
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Jake, I mean, as you noted, Donald Trump won North Carolina the last time around, but by the slimmest margin of the states that he did win. So the Harris campaign, they are looking at that state as very much in play.
What I've heard from the campaign tonight is that they are seeing in some rural counties lower than expected votes. Those counties are expected to go for Donald Trump. So they see that as a positive sign and then on the other hand, when they look at where their voters might be its in places like the Raleigh-Durham area where you're going to have a larger proportion of those voters educated, a lot of people moving into the state, into those communities. You're going to have more diversity in those communities.
And I'm told that the Durham turnout today gave them some optimism and hope as they go into this poll closing deadline in just a couple of minutes. So the campaign has been talking about all these battleground states having a plausible path to victory they see North Carolina still very much in play, Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Abby, thanks so much.
Let's go to Kaitlan Collins now in West Palm Beach, Florida, at the Trump headquarters.
Kaitlan, what is the Trump campaign looking at right now?
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF CORRESPNDENT: Well, Jake, obviously, when it comes to North Carolina, something that they're hoping will be a gut check for them tonight, one thing that they're looking at. Remember, this is a state that they thought Donald Trump was well on his way to winning when President Biden was still in the race. Of course, once he dropped out, it seemed like it was more in play.
[19:20:01]
One thing that I'm told aides are keeping an eye on tonight is whether or not the governors race has an effect on what the ultimate numbers there look like in the presidential race.
Obviously, the lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, who is the Republican gubernatorial candidate, has faced scandal after CNN reported on his past comments. That is something they will be watching closely tonight as Josh Stein, the Democrat, is expected to do. Well, well see what the ultimate race looks like there. And Jake, I should note as they are keeping a close eye on these early gut checks, hopefully they believe in Georgia and North Carolina. Donald Trump is also still making calls to get voters out in Pennsylvania tonight.
I was told that he was just on the phone calling into radio stations inside Pennsylvania urging people to get out and make sure they get to the polls and vote. And, Jake, that comes as some of his top surrogates are also posting online urging people to get out and vote.
Stephen Miller himself urging men to get out and vote, Jake.
TAPPER: All right. Kaitlan Collins in West Palm Beach with the Trump headquarters.
David Chalian has some exit polls coming in from North Carolina now. David, what issues seem to be driving voters in the Tar Heel State?
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yeah Jake, let me just explain to you that first, we're going to look at how people feel about the way things are going in the U.S. in North Carolina. What North Carolina voters are saying, 6 percent enthusiastic, 21 percent satisfied. The plurality, 43 percent of North Carolina voters tell us they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., 27 percent angry.
I just want to say those bottom two, seven and ten voters that are dissatisfied are angry. Obviously, if you're the Trump campaign, you think there's a lot of opportunity there for you.
But the Harris campaign sees opportunity there, too. They want to get at least a chunk of those dissatisfied and angry voters who are dissatisfied and angry with Trump's dominance in our politics. So that will be something to watch later in the evening.
We also are looking here at the most important issue economy, actually ranks top. Not like it is nationally, but like we saw in Georgia, though a tick down from that, 36 percent say the economy is the most important issue in North Carolina democracy is right up there, Jake, at 32 percent. Well down. Then is abortion and immigration in the teens.
We also asked about hurricane aid here is federal hurricane aid getting to the people who need it. You see, it's roughly split here. But 49 percent say yes. Federal hurricane aid getting to where it needs to go, 46 percent say no.
And then Joe Biden's approval rating, it's one point higher here in North Carolina than it is in Georgia or nationally, 42 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove. Again, the Harris campaign would like to make sure they get some of those Biden disapprovers into their fold. But that kind of approval on Biden is what is giving the Trump campaign hope in a place like North Carolina -- Jake. TAPPER: Interesting. All right. David Chalian, thanks so much.
And let's talk about this. And, Dana, I mean, again, some headwinds for Kamala Harris here in these exit polls. First of all, 70 percent, 70 percent of North Carolinians of Tar Heels are either dissatisfied or angry with the state of things the economy is the number one issue. That's terrain that Trump where Trump traditionally polls better, and then a bad job approval rating for Joe Biden, her boss.
BASH: Yeah, it is true about the 70 or 71 percent of people who are dissatisfied and angry. But I think, unlike what Chris said before saying it was that means that it's a very good sign for Donald Trump. I think that what you are maybe not calculating and what David and David with Anderson are not calculating is that there are a lot of women and men who are dissatisfied with the fact that women don't have the ability to control their reproductive rights in America.
WALLACE: No, look, it's baked in. I mean we the right track, wrong track. We've known for some period of time and the fact is, the race, despite the fact that people are very unhappy for whatever reason with the way the country is going is still supposedly as tight as can be.
So Kamala Harris is clearly going to be able to overcome that. Incidentally, may I just in the last segment, I said, I don't know why the independents are so heavily for Trump in Georgia. Fortunately, we have a very smart Republican pollster listening and who wrote to me and said, it's the same problem that democracies, incumbents and democracies around the country are facing right now -- around the world, rather, inflation, they don't like the way things are going. They want somebody to fix it. And that's Donald Trump's basic pitch at the end, which is things are -- it's broken. I'm going to fix it.
CORNISH: I don't want to drop the ball on what Dana said, though, about what people mean when they are dissatisfied. It's the same thing. about what they mean by democracy or being independent. It's not entirely clear until were closer to the final tallies.
TAPPER: No, absolutely. But the battleground states are Erin Burnett's beats tonight -- Erin.
ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: They are.
And, of course, we're just moments away from polls closing in a lot of these states in these final crucial minutes, really, in North Carolina, crucial minutes, Brianna, where you are in Charlotte, the people still have to vote.
[19:25:00]
And we're starting to see some of these exit polls, concerns about the economy, the dissatisfaction that people have. What have voters been telling you?
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They have been telling us, Erin, that everything matters. We're here in Mecklenburg County, which is going to be closely watched. It voted 66 percent for Joe Biden in 2020. And this is going to be very important to see the result here, to see how Harris performs compared to how Joe Biden did in 2020.
I'm joined now by a voter, Brian Flores. You just voted.
BRIAN FLORES, VOTER: I did.
KEILAR: And who did you vote for?
FLORES: For Harris.
KEILAR: And tell me about how you came to this decision.
FLORES: So I wasn't going to vote at all until my girlfriend was blowing up my phone, telling me to go vote. And if I didn't, she was going to break up with me. So now I'm here.
KEILAR: Was she seriously going to break up with you?
FLORES: No, I made that up. She didn't say that, but. But it's funny to say that. So --
KEILAR: So she asked you. She asked you to vote for Harris?
FLORES: She did. KEILAR: And so you voted for Biden in 2020. But what were you going to
do this time?
FLORES: I wasn't going to vote at all.
KEILAR: You were just going to stay home.
FLORES: I was going to stay home, eat some chips or something. I don't know.
KEILAR: And so you came just before polls closed. But here's the thing. How long did it -- most people have been saying its taken them 5 or 10 minutes. Tell us how long it took you to vote.
FLORES: So I got off work at 4:30, drove here about 30 minutes. I think. I walked in, like at 5:00, 5:00-ish, and I was waiting for about two hours. I just walked out to --
KEILAR: Brian, two hours to fix your address, right?
FLORES: Two hours.
KEILAR: Brian Flores, thank you so much.
Erin, back to you.
BURNETT: Well, that's devotion. That's devotion. Two hours to fix the address and to stay there and to vote.
KEILAR: Indeed.
BURNETT: I mean, all right, you know, John, but that those are the stories the Harris campaign wants. More stories like that.
KING: You know what? That's a vote today that was not going to be there yesterday or the day before.
BURNETT: That is right.
KING: Which in a competitive race, it starts with one. And that's how you build right. So what do we have so far as we look at the map? Let's come out to the big picture first and show you. Sorry, I was just peeking in there. It's early.
That's the big headline here. Look at all of that gray as we go from east to west, we have a lot to count. Still tonight, but we have some interesting things happening. Let's start in battleground Georgia. The one battleground state where we do have some results right now.
And you have a very narrow lead for Donald Trump, or that's a, I guess, better than that lead for Donald Trump, 54,000 votes. Now I say narrow and it grows. That's what happens on live television. You see that right there.
But this is very, very early in the race. We have 7 percent estimated reporting. So, you're looking at the map. You see the red filling in, the small rural counties. That is the bedrock of the Donald Trump movement.
He wins big in rural America. The challenge for Harris is to run it up here. We have nothing from Fulton County.
Saw Victor Blackwell earlier tonight in Gwinnett County, very early on. You have a little more 1,100 votes there if you add that up. So we have a long way to go. The -- just for comparison purposes, you know, Joe Biden gets 58. So can the vice president, keep it there at 59, as we move through the night again, that's an incredible early rationale there.
But that's what you're looking at right. Are you at least matching the coalition of the last guy to win the state? And that would be Joe Biden four years ago. And if you're not, if you're losing in some areas, can you make it up somewhere else? So that's where we look at Georgia right now, all it tells us we have a very competitive race.
Virginia used to be a battleground state. It's reliably blue now, but it will give us some pretty important clues tonight. It will, because if you look through right here, only 2 percent of the vote in, again, you see, what, 45,000 to 43,000. This is a state that's going to be over around 4 million votes, maybe even higher than that by the end of the night.
So this is very, very early on. It's 2 percent of the vote. But you look at the map and you say are there any surprises here. But this would be a surprise.
Prince William County in the suburbs, you see D.C. is right here, very blue suburbs here, Fairfax County, go back 20 years, Republican leaning. Now, you come out here to Prince William County again. It's only 5 percent of the vote. Trump up by six points there.
Just go back and take a peek. This was blue and it was decidedly blue. So it's very early. That vote total could be one precinct could be one -- one Republican area. Just the thing we keep an eye on you market early on.
Right now, that's where Biden did very well at the moment. But Trump -- if Trump can improve in the suburbs and the exurbs, that's his path back to the White House. It's early on, but that's the thing you look at as this plays in.
What else are we looking for here? This is Chesterfield County, Richmond, Virginia is the capital. Suburbs beneath it to the south, suburbs around it to the north, only 6 percent of the vote in, Harris getting 51 percent.
Again, your test is, match it up to Biden. He had 52. She wants to stay where his number is. You say, oh, it's a point or so, a point or so can matter. Maybe not in Virginia. She may still win the state, but if she's underperforming Biden in the suburbs, that would be a warning sign.
This is way too early, way too early to say. That's the case, I pointed out. Just so these are the markers were going to go through as we go through the night, as we look it out.
When it comes to Virginia, here's my test here. Again, this is 2 percent those numbers. Forget about them. We're going to get a long way to go there.
Here's the -- here's the number you want to look at. This was a ten- point race -- ten-point race four years ago, right? It was not a ten- point race in 2016, right? It was still blue in both races.
That's Obama. Sorry I went all the way back to Obama there. There we go. That's not going to work for me. There we go.
It was a six-point race there, that matters.
[19:30:00]
That matters. Virginia might still stay blue, the question is, is Donald Trump tighter in the blue states because that means he'll be better in the battleground states?
And, Jake, that's what you watch. Counties come in, you take a look, you try to learn some lessons.
TAPPER: All right. And we're coming up on another critical round of poll closings in the Harris-Trump presidential race, just moments from now. That's when voting ends in the battleground state of North Carolina, as well as in Ohio and West Virginia. A total of 37 electoral votes are up for grabs.
Right now, and CNN can make a projection that Donald Trump will win the state of West Virginia, West Virginia and it's four electoral votes going to Donald Trump, too early to call, too early to make a projection in battleground North Carolina with its 16 electoral votes, or in Ohio, with its 17 electoral votes.
Let's take a look at the electoral map at this hour. Now that we've called a state for Donald Trump, Donald Trump has 23 electoral votes in the lead of Kamala Harris, who has three electoral votes, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the race, both are far from that.
Let's bring you a key race alert now in the battleground state of Georgia. Donald Trump in the lead with 58.1 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 41.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump 69,586 votes ahead. That's -- with only an estimated 8 percent of the vote in, in the state of Georgia.
In the Commonwealth of Virginia, Donald Trump in the lead there with 49.6 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 48.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump, with a 948-vote, lead only 2 percent of the vote has come in from the Commonwealth of Virginia.
We have two more states to -- to show you now. Florida, Donald Trump in the lead there with 53.5 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with 45.5 percent of the vote, Donald Trump with 586,779-vote lead. That's the most of the vote in, a majority of the vote, 64 percent of the vote in, in the state of Florida, with its 30 electoral votes. In New Hampshire, Kamala Harris in the lead there with 58.7 percent of
the vote. Donald Trump has 40.8 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has a 5,513-vote lead. That's with only an estimated 4 percent of the vote.
John King at the magic wall.
What are you looking at?
KING: Just wandering through the counties, Jake, where votes come in, especially in the battleground states. This is Georgia right now.
As you noted 69,000, almost a 70,000-vote lead for Donald Trump but it's a very important but, 8 percent reporting, 8 percent reporting, a long way to go in the count in Georgia. In fact, you just take a look, 240,000, Donald Trump in the lead right now, Joe Biden had 2.47 million when he won the state four years ago.
So we have a long way to go in the count in battleground Georgia. But you're just looking for clues and hints to see is this going to be every race is different, right? You always compare Trump to Trump -- Trump '24 to Trump '20, to Trump '16.
Can Harris match Biden? Will black turnout rival Obama? These are the questions you have coming into the election and then you actually get results. And it will be the Harris coalition versus this year's Trump coalition.
And we watch it play out. So one thing you look at, you see Cobb County is red. Well, if that's the case at midnight and 2:00 a.m. and 3:00 a.m., that would be a big deal. Let's not over-invest, 277 to 186. So you've got fewer than 500 votes as you can see, we have a long way to go in Cobb County.
So sometimes you get an early precinct or an early batch of votes and it draws your eye. If that stays that way, that would be a big deal. But if you go back to 2020 and look, this is the key to Democratic victory in Georgia, right here Atlanta in the suburbs. So you come off that and go back to 2024 and see where we are.
Not much of it in yet, right? So let's just take a peek around and look. Fayette County, you're more to the south there, 60 percent for Harris, about 37 percent of the vote in. So they're getting some votes in there pretty quick, ways to go.
But let's just match it up. Harris gets 60 percent. Let's see how President Biden did there when he had a narrow victory, right? President Biden lost that county at 46 percent. So that would be if it stays that way, a net plus for Harris. You're trying to flip counties. Anytime you flip counties, you're helping your math.
So let's come back to 2024 again. Let's watch. And see if that holds. Let's come back in and down here to Rockdale County. Again, here's Atlanta, right? So you're moving out suburbs into exurban areas here. You're out here, 76 percent there. They're counting fast there. They say they're at 74 percent. Sometimes
that challenged a little bit, but that's what they're estimated reporting is. She's at 76 percent. If you round up, you come back. Joe Biden was at 70 percent.
So if you look at those counties, you're in the Harris headquarters. That's what you're matching up. Are we meeting our targets or are we exceeding the Biden coalition? Still some votes to be counted there, but that's an encouraging number for the vice president when you compare it to 2020.
So let's come back out and take another look. And you come up here. Victor Blackwell is here keeping an eye on Gwinnett for us. It is a larger, more populous suburb to the northeast of Atlanta. Again 15, 20 years ago, it was Republican.
Mitt Romney carried this in 2012. The vice president at 57. Right now, it's almost more important to look at his numbers sometimes. Can Donald Trump improve his standing in the suburbs?
He doesn't have to win. He's just have to improve his standing in the suburbs. If he can make that a 46, you know, that -- that makes you more competitive.
[19:35:06]
So, 43 right now in Gwinnett County, 2024. But look at that, again, 812 votes. Harris is in the lead. By the time we're done, you're going to be in the 200,000, right? So we have a very, very, very long way to go. Trump at 40 percent.
There, four years ago, Trump running 43 percent right now. But again you got to look at the early count. We don't even have a percentage there number of votes. But that's what you're doing early on.
You're just looking placing some markers to try to do the comparison as you go back and forth. And, Jake, I just want to pull out quickly to the map and look at it here.
Everything else is filling in. As expected, the question is to look at some lessons in North Carolina. We do have some first votes in and it is blue at the moment -- an 1,800-vote, 1,820-vote lead. There you go. It just moved again.
More votes came in, 8,732-vote lead for the vice president. But again 17,782 votes. It might change even as I speak.
This is just to show you how early we are in the count. It takes 2.7 or more to win North Carolina in a high turnout election. So were very early in the count, but North Carolina and Georgia are critical battlegrounds.
If Donald Trump wins North Carolina and Georgia, the vice president cannot win this race if she loses Pennsylvania. If he takes those two off the board, North Carolina and Georgia, she must win Pennsylvania. So as these counts come in in these battleground states, we're starting to get to the point where we can start doing some Electoral College chess.
North Carolina and Georgia are critical. If Harris loses them, her path becomes incredibly narrow. If she can win one of them, she has more options.
TAPPER: All right, now to Boris Sanchez, who has our first projection of the night in the fight for the control of the U.S. Senate -- Boris.
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Jake, a major, major projection to bring you. In their quest to take control of the U.S. Senate, Republicans have their first expected pickup and it comes from West Virginia. A former two term Governor Jim Justice, the Republican in this race, is projected to defeat the mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia, Glenn Elliott.
Justice, a former Democrat, now expected to take control of the seat held by retiring Democrat turned independent Senator Joe Manchin as he now retires. Kind of gives you an idea of where West Virginia is headed politically. So this is no surprise, but it is significant for the math.
Justice, a MAGA acolyte, known for taking his 4-year-old English bulldog everywhere with him, it appears that baby dog and Justice are now headed to the U.S. Senate.
So what does this mean for the magic number? Republicans started out the night needing control of two Democratic seats to take the upper chamber. Now, that number is down to one, and they are currently leading in one race where Democrats hold a seat.
Let's get you some key race alerts now. And show you exactly where that is on the map. We start with Ohio still very early there, but Colombian-born businessman Bernie Moreno is leading Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, seeking his fourth term only by about 16,000 votes. Still, very early though 3 percent of the vote in, in the state of Ohio.
If you're a Democrat and you're looking at the map, you're looking for opportunities to pick up a Republican seat, one of their best opportunities in the Sunshine State of Florida.
Rick Scott got elected by winning only about a 10,000-vote margin over his previous opponent back in 2018. Right now, he's 715,000 votes ahead of former Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Still a lot of votes to count, but this is with 60 percent of the vote in in the state of Florida.
So stepping back, looking at the raw numbers, what does this mean for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate? Democrats hold 28 seats, Republicans 40. With that one important pickup in West Virginia, 32 seats remain up for grabs, Jake, you need 51 for control of the chamber.
TAPPER: All right. Boris, thanks so much.
Let me bring you a CNN key race alert right now. In North Carolina, Kamala Harris is in the lead with 68 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has 30.8 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris, as of this hour, has a 41,599 vote lead. That's with only an estimated 2 percent of the vote in from the big battleground of North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes.
In battleground Georgia, Donald Trump, in the lead with 60.6 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 38.9 percent of the vote. Donald Trump, as of this hour, with a 109,841-vote lead. That's with an estimated 9 percent of the vote in from that key battleground state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes.
In the commonwealth of Virginia, Kamala Harris has 59.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump, 38.8 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with 105,065-vote lead, that's with an estimated 11 percent of the vote in from the Commonwealth of Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes.
We expect more votes to come in from key battlegrounds at any time, and were going to soon get the first results from a third high stakes presidential battleground, the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Voting ends in the Commonwealth just a few minutes from now.
We're going to talk to you on the other side of the break. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:43:37]
TAPPER: It's 7:43 p.m. on the East Coast, and we're heading into one of the busiest hours of this election night.
Here's where the race to 270 electoral votes stands right now. Donald Trump has 23 electoral votes. Kamala Harris has three electoral votes. Both of them far from the 270 needed to win.
But we have some new results to share. So here's the key race alert.
In battleground Georgia, Donald Trump in the lead with 62.7 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 36.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a healthy 166,655-vote lead. That's with 13 percent of the estimated vote in, still a lot of votes to be counted in Georgia.
In battleground North Carolina, Kamala Harris is 67.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has 31.4 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 40,929 votes ahead of Donald Trump, but it's still very early. Two percent of the estimated vote is in still a lot of votes to count in North Carolina.
And the Commonwealth of Virginia, Kamala Harris has 58.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has 40.3 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with a 121,029-vote lead. It's still very early, only 15 percent of the estimated vote in from the Commonwealth of Virginia.
In Florida, Donald Trump in the lead, 54.3 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 44.7 percent, Donald Trump with a healthy 822,987-vote lead. [19:45:03]
That's with an estimated 71 percent of the estimated vote in from Florida.
In Ohio, Donald Trump, with 56.7 percent of the vote, Kamala Harris with 42.5 percent of the vote, Donald Trump has a 31,716-vote lead. It's still very early in Ohio. Only 4 percent of the estimated vote in.
In New Hampshire, Kamala Harris in the lead, 58.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has 40.8 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has a 10,020- vote lead. Still very early in New Hampshire, only 7 percent of the estimated vote in, in the Granite State.
We're only minutes away from the biggest wave of poll closings in this entire presidential race. We are counting down to the top of the hour. That's 8:00 p.m. Eastern, when a total of 171 electoral votes are on the line. That's a huge chunk of the 270 needed to win. Voting is about to end in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, the key Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.
All eyes are on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in this hour ahead. It is one of the make-or-break battlegrounds up for grabs tonight. And the polling there has been 48/48 or 50/50. Kamala Harris is hoping to pull off a win in Pennsylvania, as president Biden did four years ago.
Donald Trump aiming for a repeat of his 2016 victory there. Let's check back with our campaign correspondents, first.
Abby Phillip anchoring at Harris headquarters in Howard University here in D.C.
Abby, what is the latest from Harris campaign headquarters when it comes to watching the returns come in from Georgia and North Carolina?
PHILLIP: Jake, right now, my colleague Jeff Zeleny has some new reporting about what's happening in the state of Pennsylvania.
Jeff, what are you learning?
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESSPONDENT: Well, Abby, there is no doubt that the Harris campaign is watching Pennsylvania closer than any other state. They are looking to Philadelphia in particular, what they believe is higher turnout than the 2020 levels for Joe Biden. They are looking at a couple of key precincts in Philadelphia, but if that were to be the case if the vice president is to have a strong performance in Pennsylvania, she must do well in Philadelphia.
Abby, as you well know, she closed out her campaign last night in Philadelphia with that big rally on the Rocky steps. That's where the marathon ends. It's called the finish line. The big question for her campaign, if she reaches the finish line in
the presidential race, can she have big enough margins in Philadelphia and in Pittsburgh to carry the state?
The Harris campaign is a little worried about North Carolina and Georgia. They've always said the most straightforward path is the blue wall, but all eyes are on Philadelphia right now. That's why, as we speak, they're trying to get the rest of the voters out to the polls.
PHILLIP: Yeah, just a couple of minutes left, Jeff. Thank you for that.
Back to you, Jake.
TAPPER: Thanks, Abby.
And let's go to Kaitlan Collins at Trump headquarters in West Palm Beach -- Kaitlan.
COLLINS: Yeah. Thanks, Jake.
Were here at the convention center where Donald Trump is hosting his election night party. I'm with CNN's Kristen Holmes.
And Philadelphia and Pennsylvania overall, obviously, has been a key focus for them. But after Donald Trump and the Puerto Rican remark fallout from his rally at Madison Square Garden, they were particularly worried because there are Puerto Rican strongholds in Pennsylvania.
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There's more than 400,000 Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania. And he actually went to Allentown. There wasn't huge protests, but they were very concerned.
Now, a lot of their concern focuses around some internal drama, which was that essentially, after that comedian took the stage and made that joke, there was a lot of finger pointing as to who was to blame, who brought him on stage, who did not vet him. Now internally, I am told that they have been circulating polls about Puerto Rican voters, even showing them to the former president who has asked at multiple times, did this hurt my campaign? Is this going to hurt me with Puerto Rican voters?
COLLINS: So, worried about it. He was worried. He was watching the news as he often does, and seeing the reports that Puerto Ricans were saying that they were offended by it, that they weren't going to vote for him.
And of course, this is particularly important in Pennsylvania, given the fact that there are so many Puerto Rican voters. And one thing, Kaitlan, it's not just Pennsylvania, across all of the swing states, there are large swaths of Puerto Rican voters. So whether it's not self-preservation, because these people want to show that they didn't impact the Puerto Rican vote, or it's because they actually think it could impact him in the long term, they are watching those numbers very carefully. COLLINS: Yeah. And when the margins matter, something like that
certainly can.
Kristen Holmes, thank you for that.
Jake, obviously, something the Trump campaign is watching very closely from down here in south Florida behind the scenes.
TAPPER: All right. Kaitlan, thanks so much.
Let's go to David Chalian now who has some new exit polling.
David, what are you learning about voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania?
[19:50:03]
CHALIAN: In the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, democracy is the number one issue for voters. Take a look, 33 percent of Pennsylvania voters say democracy is the most important issue. The economy is right up there, Jake, with 30 percent. Then abortion at 15. Immigration at 12.
Speaking of abortion, we asked, do you think it should be mostly legal or illegal? Sixty-four percent of Pennsylvania voters, nearly two thirds, say it should be legal, 30 percent say illegal.
We also asked for a view on fracking in Pennsylvania. We want to understand why Kamala Harris changed her position on this 55 percent favor fracking. According to the exit polls in Pennsylvania, 36 percent oppose it, and Biden's handling of his job, a tick higher than we saw nationally, 43 percent of Pennsylvania voters in this election tell us they approve of Biden's job performance. 56 percent disapprove, Jake.
TAPPER: All right. David Chalian, thanks so much.
And Chris, at least just based on this exit poll, a slightly better terrain in Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris with democracy as the number one issue, 33 percent, as opposed to economy at 30 percent, a strong majority supporting a legal abortion. And Joe Biden's approval rating is bad, but not as bad.
WALLACE: I think it's night and day. I mean, as compared to Georgia and North Carolina, 48 percent of people in Pennsylvania said either abortion or democracy was the most important issue seems like a very different climate than North Carolina and Georgia.
And that's the point. She doesn't have to win all of the states that Joe Biden won. She just needs to win enough to get to 270, and the blue wall and the blue dot in Nebraska is enough.
BASH: Yeah. I mean, if you look at Pennsylvania, these numbers would if you would ostensibly be pretty good for Kamala Harris if democracy is the top issue. But the economy is right underneath that as they know as we know, has been a big headwind for Kamala Harris. What we don't know yet and what I'm really interested to see is what Kaitlan and Kristen were just reporting on. And that is whether or not that very large, not only Latino population, but the Puerto Rican population in places like Allentown and Reading, whether or not those are going to flip or maybe come out in a more robust way after Madison Square Garden.
CORNISH: One other thing about -- one of the things about those comments is that it draws attention to the campaign and not the way they want. Kamala Harris tried to take advantage of that. She had Fat Joe. She had Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigning in Puerto Rican areas of Pennsylvania.
It's not just about the mistake. Its about being able to draw attention to it and then use that as an opportunity to wake up maybe low propensity voters.
TAPPER: Yeah, Pennsylvania with the third biggest Puerto Rican population in the mainland, behind only Florida and New York.
Back to Erin Burnett following the action in the battleground states.
BURNETT: Right. And, of course, chief among them right now, you're talking about it, Pennsylvania.
So lets go to Kate Bolduan in Bensalem, where you have been throughout the day, Kate. And now, you know, were seeing these exit polls. Polls are going to close. This could truly become, as so many thought it would, the must win state for Kamala Harris
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, and since we last spoke to you, Erin, we have moved to Philadelphia. This is the warehouse where all of the counting is happening. This is where the action is.
And we've just learned from a source close to the counting process inside the Philadelphia will be posting when it posts its first votes at 8:01 p.m. They will be posting more just over 110,000 ballots. These are mail ballots.
This is the long awaited first batch of mail ballots to be posted. And it represents, I'm told, by the source, more than 50 percent of all mail ballots that they have received. This also for context, puts Philadelphia well ahead of the pace of their counting pace from 2020, which we've all become so familiar with.
But this is a big moment that we're learning first here on CNN. They'll be posting just over 110,000 ballots, and we'll see the results of that when it posts online.
BURNETT: It's so crucial, Kate, as you say, faster than we had seen last time. And the context that Kate just gave around that number, that that would be more than 50 percent of the mail in ballots from Philadelphia. It's a start but its a better start than we've seen before.
Pamela Brown is at the voting desk.
And, Pamela, with the spotlight on Pennsylvania right now, you know, what are you looking for in the context of those numbers that Kate just -- just shared with us?
PAMELA BROWN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So you have the early votes that are about to be reported shortly after 8:00, and then you have the overall turnout and sources I'm speaking with there in Pennsylvania and on the ground in Philly, say that turnout in Philadelphia and some other places across the commonwealth have exceeded expectations.
So let's talk about that Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia and what I'm being told there. An official there tells me at Temple University, the line was around the block today. I'm told they had to bring in extra machines to tabulate the votes, six total compared to the two that is typical for this official.
The Philly official also tells me while they don't have an exact number for voter turnout today, they just don't have that data right now.
[19:55:02]
That turnout has certainly exceeded expectations. Two sources at the state and local level in Philly tell me that ballots had to be replenished today in several polling places there. And this Democratic stronghold overall, one state source speaking to election officials in Philly said it seems the turnout there was, quote, quite high and seems through the roof.
Let's look at the swing county here of Northampton. The state official also tells me that Lehigh University, their lines were up to four hours long. I'm told this is not because of any glitches in the system or issues, just that the turnout there was stronger than they had anticipated at this university where there are a lot more younger voters.
Now I'm told right now, as it stands across the commonwealth, there 600,000 fewer mail-in ballots compared to 2020. But officials aren't done counting the total number. And they tell me it's actually more mail-in ballots than they were expecting. So we're about to get our first big look at those mail-in ballot numbers right there in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania at 8:00 p.m. A lot coming our way this hour, Erin.
BURNETT: That's right. Absolutely. As Kate said, more than 100,000 of them, could be more than 50 percent of the outstanding for Philadelphia.
John King, amazing, though, when you hear about four hours of lines and we have heard that from Pennsylvania to Nevada, that young people have turned out.
KING: Hopefully, everyone is turning out. I just want to say quickly, seeing Kate Bolduan in that spot in Philadelphia you want to trigger some Johnny 2020?
BURNETT: That's real PTSD.
That is that is the spot I remember that spot all too well from 2020. Let's look through what we have. Blank in commonwealth Pennsylvania
right now. Again, this is the biggest of the battleground prizes, 19 electoral votes. Whoever wins this state has just has a more options to get to 270 because its 19. So what are we looking for here, right?
Kate was just right here in Philadelphia. It's the biggest basket of votes. If you're the Democrat you need to run it up in Philadelphia. So she just said we'll get about 100,000 votes, right? So let's just go back in 2020.
Just as a reminder, Joe Biden wins Philadelphia with 81 percent of the vote, and over just over 600,000 in the count. So those first 100,000 will give us a clue. But it's a building block. Were going to have to wait to see what keeps coming after that, especially if those are early ballots.
And well see. Are the early ballots this year as disproportionately Democratic as they were in 2020? That's one of the things well see. But this is the building block for any Democratic victory in Pennsylvania. It has to be not only a high percentage, but you want a high turnout. You want to do some raw math there to run up your margin.
Then we get into the suburbs around Philadelphia, the collar counties bucks and Montgomery and Delaware, and then you start moving out to the excerpts. You see how it's going.
Pam, just noted two places that I'll keep an eye on tonight. Again, I said this at the beginning of the program. Maybe you weren't with us. There were 25 counties in America, only 25 counties in America that voted twice for Barack Obama, then for Donald Trump, and then switched back to Joe Biden, right?
So those are your bellwether counties. Two of them are in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. One is in its northwest corner, excuse me, little Boston came out there.
There's Erie. Look how close it was in 2020. But the winner goes on to win the White House, right?
And then you come over here, Pam just mentioned Northampton County, which is right along the Jersey border right here. Been there a few times in this campaign, part of our "All Over the Map" project, a great group of voters there. And again, look how close it was in Northampton County.
She mentioned long voting lines there I talked to one of our voters earlier today by text who said she was confident that Harris could pull it out. But that's a bellwether there. That's Pennsylvania.
Now let's come back to 2024 and see what we have on the map. At the moment, we told you this early on, the vice president is leading in battleground Ohio. Not much of a battleground anymore. This is a reliably red state.
So just take this. It's 20 percent estimated reporting. You'd rather be ahead than behind. But remember we told you, some states you're going to see a lot of early votes. First, and then you get Election Day voting. So, always good to be ahead, but it's only 20 percent. And the expectation by the end of the night is Ohio turns back to red. But we want to look at the votes.
To be fair to the former president, earlier tonight, I talked about Hamilton County, Indiana, a suburban county just north of Indianapolis where the vice president was leading when we were in the 50 percent. Were above 62 percent now, still very competitive still could be a sign that she's competitive in Republican leaning suburbs. But Donald Trump has taken the lead in Hamilton County, Indiana, which of course is a red state already in his electoral math column.
Let's just check in on the Commonwealth of Virginia and then we'll move south. Again, if you're Harris, Joe Biden had a ten point win here, right? If you want to recreate the 2020 map, you want the states to come out roughly like they did then only a 22 percent. But right now, she's in the ballpark for a ten point win. We'll keep an eye on that.
If you get that ten point win there. The question is can you carry it over? This has always been Democrats frustration. How do we get Virginia, but we can't get North Carolina? Demographically, they're very similar.
You could even say there's some more advantages for Democrats in the research triangle -- younger voters, more Black voters. Right now, the vice president has a lead. But again, we are very early on in the state of North Carolina, 59 percent.
Just want to go back and look for comparison, 126,000 votes. She has the lead. Why do we know were going to be out this a while? It's going to take about 2.7 -- 2.8 million to win the state. So we have a long way to go here.
Let's just take one more look at battleground Georgia before we get to the top of the hour. And we're going to start to see votes coming in. It's time to do some serious math at the top of the hour. Donald Trump leading at the moment 182,000 votes ahead, but only about a third of the vote counted, and not much in yet from the Atlanta.
