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CNN Live Event/Special
Trump Entering Midterm Stretch as Most Unpopular He's Been; Bipartisan Backlash to Trump's Deal with Putin for Oil; Talarico Challenges Paxton to Debate; Lindsay Graham's Sister Debates Again After Flub in First One. Aired 8-9p ET
Aired October 11, 2026 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[20:00:30]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Tonight the president enters the final midterm stretch as the most unpopular he's ever been. So where will his party get the votes outside the base?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When you stand up here, it's just like the love. I could say the stupidest things and you're clapping. Oh, I love you so much. I'm sure.
PHILLIP (voice-over): Plus, Donald Trump's deal with Vladimir Putin ticks off allies.
TRUMP: It's time for Ukraine to get a new president.
PHILLIP (voice-over): And Republicans.
SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): I do believe there's a legitimate case for saying the president is not following the law.
PHILLIP (voice-over): Also, in one of America's most important Senate races, the discourse gets dark.
TRUMP: To me, he's Muhammad. He's a radical jihadist.
SEN. JOHN KENNEDY (R-LA): They wouldn't come here if Dr. El-Sayed didn't sleep in a bin Laden church.
PHILLIP (voice-over): And the economy may be first. But is corruption also high on the ballot?
Live at the table, Scott Jennings, Van Jones, Lauren A. Wright, David Axelrod and Alyssa Farah Griffin.
This is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT, "Midterm Countdown."
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIP: Good evening. I'm Abby Phillip in New York. And this is a special two-hour debate show. Thanks for joining us. As we mark nearly three weeks until the midterm elections, tonight
President Trump preps for another week on the campaign trail with the worst approval that he's had in two presidencies. He is underwater on every major issue, especially on the economy, which voters say is their top issue.
And Trump's itinerary could just indicate how concerning November is for his party. He recently traveled to Alabama, to Oklahoma, to Iowa, and in the coming days, he'll make some stops in Ohio, Montana, Alaska. He's also foreshadowing a potential midterm loss. He says that he'll be the one who is blamed, but he's making this observation about his base, which needs to expand if they're going to have a chance.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: It's amazing, when you stand up here, it's just like the love. I could say the stupidest things and you're clapping. Oh, I love you so. I'm sure. But we don't say the stupidest things. We say things of common sense.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: Before we open it up to the table here, we invite you at home to submit your questions to the panel. Head to CNN.com/EngagePolitics. You can weigh in there, and we'll get to some of your comments as we go throughout the show.
David Axelrod, you are in some ways the ultimate tea leaf reader. And here we are two weeks before the midterms. The combination of where Trump is going, what he is saying, where Republicans are spending money, do you believe that they are truly as worried about some of these places that they shouldn't be worried about as some people say that they are?
DAVID AXELROD, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, no, he's going to some places they should be worried about, some he shouldn't. Scott and I are the only veterans of a midterm in which we got stomped. He in 2006, me in 2010.
ALYSSA FARAH GRIFFIN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I was 2018 in the Trump White House. We did pretty rough then.
AXELROD: Yes. OK. I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
(CROSSTALK)
GRIFFIN: Don't leave my losses.
AXELROD: I'm sorry. I'm sorry. You can join the club, but, you know, when you're working in the White House, there aren't -- you're not getting a lot of invitations. It's not like a lot of people are saying, hey, I'd love you to come to my district, or I'd love you to come to my state. So one of the reasons he's going to these red states is because it's safe terrain. And then he is going to some places where there are -- where there are races, but they're sending him to specific places in those states. You know, the most Republican part of Nebraska, for example, to try
and deal with their fundamental problem, which is lack of enthusiasm, even among their base, because that's really the way they hope to kind of reduce losses in this thing.
PHILLIP: And look, I mean, it's necessary. It just seems not sufficient. But, I mean, does Trump, do you get the sense that Trump recognizes that? Or maybe he's starting to recognize that there really is a problem because before this, he was saying, oh, the affordability thing is a hoax. Before this, he was saying, we're going to be fine. We're not, you know, really, it's not really as bad as they say that it is. And now he's starting to sound like he understands.
[20:05:06]
GRIFFIN: Listen, I think the president is aware that the midterms are going to be going against him from for quite some time now. But I think the reality is sinking in of what it means if the House and the Senate flip over, and the fact that he's going to be scrutinized, there's going to be subpoena power, there's going to be oversight for the first time in the second term.
And I think it brings back echoes of 2018 and then going through impeachment one and impeachment two. So he's sort of dealing with the reality of it. At this point I think the House is being treated by the White House as sort of a foregone conclusion, even though he's still trying to help some of these members.
But there are a number of paths with -- in the Senate still. And I think that what I'm hearing from folks around the president is keep fighting everywhere that you can. You know, there's the fact they apparently are very concerned about Texas. I don't know if you've heard otherwise, but they're feeling better about Maine. They're feeling better about New Hampshire than they originally were.
So -- but listen, they're buckling up that it's going to be a shellacking as David Axelrod knows about.
PHILLIP: Here's a viewer question. If the Senate flips to Democrats, how will this change the political calculus of potential '28 presidential candidates in both parties?
So, Scott, answer for the Republicans here, because, I mean, there have been some Republicans actually, who are close to some of these candidates who might run, who say they're going to have a hard time because being sort of shackled to President Trump, who's deeply unpopular, is a problem if you want to run for president.
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I mean, look, if J.D. Vance chooses to run for president, he's highly likely to be the party's nominee. I mean, he may face a challenge. It looks like Ted Cruz is gearing up. But if he runs, no matter what happens in this midterm, if he runs and he has the backing of Donald Trump, I'd be really surprised if he wasn't the party's nominee.
If he chooses not to run, which, again, I think is unlikely, then it could be more of a free-for-all. And you could have people arguing that the party needs to take a different direction. But regardless of the results here, look, Trump is still supreme in the Republican Party, OK? He still is sort of the North Star for the party. He sets the agenda for the party. He's changed the party's attitude on a number of issues.
And I don't think that's going to change based on these particular election results. Also, the fact that he's going all over the country and doing all these events, I don't remember George W. Bush doing that many events in 2006. We did a few in a couple of places and a lot of fundraising behind the scenes, but he's a lot more public than you might imagine based on his numbers, which tells you the theory behind the case.
Get Republicans engaged in the election and go out and rally some of the base, some of these -- look, there's some Republicans that are that are concerned and are disappointed or upset about this, that or the other. But he has to remind them that it's a choice. And do you want me or do you want to stick your face in the socialist woodchipper? And he can make the case.
PHILLIP: Or it could be also because he doesn't like it when he's not the center of attention, whether that's a good politics or not.
AXELROD: Well, yes.
GRIFFIN: Yes, some of these candidates do not want him showing up. Susan Collins is not picking up the phone like please come to Maine.
PHILLIP: Yes, I mean, I don't know if it's all strategy.
LAUREN A. WRIGHT, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENTIST: She's doing just fine on her own, though, because the Democrats, the only hope they have is they've made these unforced errors with these radical statewide candidates. I think Maine is a very good example of that. Trump has a couple built-in advantages. The polls, which he does not believe, are actually a mess.
They do inaccurately weight towards more progressive poll takers. A.I. is also a huge threat. Polling companies are not good at weeding out fake responses for online polls. And, you know, there is this socialist vein that we did not see in 2006, which otherwise this year is a lot like because people weren't campaigning on Medicare for All. They were campaigning on Medicare should negotiate lower drug prices for seniors, which is something even Republicans agree with now. So he's got a couple advantages. But I do, in Alyssa's parlance, agree with the shellacking largely.
VAN JONES, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Keep hugging that teddy bear, I love it, keep hugging it. You know, maybe keep you comfortable and safe and warm at night. It could be these polls are off. But when you talk --
WRIGHT: What? The socialism?
(CROSSTALK) JONES: Well, no, no, no, the teddy bear that the polls are bad and that somehow that we're going to blow this thing.
WRIGHT: I think they are. OK.
JONES: Well, it could be, but here's what I know. I'm not a pollster. I just talk to regular people. Republican voters are really disappointed in Trump.
WRIGHT: Yes.
JONES: The farmers who bet on him. And I mean, you had to argue with their woke niece that he was going to do a great job. Now they're losing their farm, the diesel prices are up. They don't feel good. You've got truckers that stuck up for him, had Trump stickers on their trucks, and now they can't fill up those trucks. They're disappointed. You got people who are isolationists, veterans didn't want any more wars, they're disappointed. So I don't know if the polls are right.
AXELROD: Hispanic voters.
JONES: Hispanic voters who are humiliated and angry.
WRIGHT: In Texas probably huge.
JONES: And so a lot of this gerrymandering that they were doing, assuming that the Latinos were going to stick with them, those Latinos are moving away. So I don't know if the polls are right or wrong, but I'm telling you, people feel very, very bad about their vote.
[20:10:01]
WRIGHT: It's reasonable.
AXELROD: It's also --
WRIGHT: He campaigned on the prices.
AXELROD: Despite, I mean, I know, I -- I'm sure that's true that he still rules supreme in his party. But you look at the polling and his numbers have sort of eroded there as well. They're still strong, but they're not nearly what they were for. A lot of the reasons that Vance said these policies, the war, the tariffs, they've cut a swath through the heartland of America that was red America, small towns and rural areas.
PHILLIP: Just to that point, CNN took a poll of Iowa and Ohio voters on economic issues. And in Iowa and in Ohio, you're looking at numbers in the 70s of voters who say that Trump's policies have increased the cost of living in their state. Majorities say that gas prices are a problem for them. They're a hardship for them. Tariffs have been bad for the state. The cost of living is the top issue for about half of voters in both of these states. That's why we're even talking about these two states. I mean, in another world, we really wouldn't be.
AXELROD: And here's the thing. Those issues, it's very rare that people can point to a specific decision of a president. They could be aggravated with a president because the economy is bad, but they are making -- they can point to the war. They can point to tariffs and they can say with certainty those things are raising my costs. And he said he was going to lower my costs.
PHILLIP: Direct cause and effect.
JENNINGS: But herein lies the debate. So if you're a Republican out there and you're disappointed about a decision or one thing or the other, valid, depending on where you live, the point he's going to make, and the point these Republican campaigns are making, OK, fine. Feel free to be disappointed about one thing or the other. What would a Democrat do?
GRIFFIN: Exactly.
JENNINGS: What has a Democrat proposed to do in this election that would change your life in any meaningful way? And don't forget, 90 percent of the cost of living that you're upset with was handed to you by Democrats anyway. And if you look at the USDA data on grocery, they have somewhat tamed food inflation right now. I know a graph is cold comfort to people who are having trouble affording things, but the real debate is, what has a Democrat done or proposed to do, even on gas prices?
PHILLIP: So, Scott, I hear that a lot.
JENNINGS: When is a Democrat going to propose --
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: I do hear that a lot from Republicans at this table and elsewhere. But do you --
AXELROD: Ending the war would help on --
PHILLIP: Scott, do you consider -- do you consider that some voters might say, actually, we want a Democratic Congress because the answer to some of these questions that you're asking is just to stop the president from doing what he's doing?
AXELROD: Yes.
JENNINGS: What would --
PHILLIP: Because just stopping --
JENNINGS: What would a Democratic Congress do?
PHILLIP: Just stopping Trump.
JENNINGS: Today, I saw on our air they're proposing to impeach the president.
PHILLIP: Stopping him, stopping him on tariffs.
JENNINGS: Is that what they will do?
PHILLIP: Kind of constraining him on the war. Voters might be saying, hey, actually, the thing that we need is just for him to stop.
AXELROD: If they believe that it's gas prices and tariffs that have raised their prices and they can use their suasion to end the war and lower tariffs and end this crazy war with Canada, they probably think that would be a tangible --
(CROSSTALK)
WRIGHT: Those are not conservative policies. Traditionally, the ones Trump has pursued.
AXELROD: Whatever. I'm just talking about how voters would --
WRIGHT: The conservative intellectual movement is gone right now.
GRIFFIN: Calling affordability a hoax and just -- he's basically fallen into the Biden trap of being like things are actually much better than you feel that they are. That hurts with voters who may even fall into this binary of like, OK, but I generally like Republicans better. They feel like they see the president getting wealthier, getting more powerful, everyone around him getting wealthier and more powerful, and they're hurting and he's not even acknowledging it.
WRIGHT: I agree, except, except with some of these Senate candidates, they want to abolish the Constitution, get rid of the Supreme Court.
AXELROD: Who wants to abolish the Constitution?
WRIGHT: The DSA candidates. The 20 DSA candidates running.
AXELROD: What Senate candidate -- what Senate candidate has said they want to abolish the Constitution?
WRIGHT: The DSA, which has endorsed El-Sayed.
AXELROD: Wait, wait, wait, wait. El-Sayed has never said --
WRIGHT: I think he should denounce them. I think he should denounce these radical ideas.
AXELROD: He said that he doesn't share those positions. He said that --
WRIGHT: I think that's very odd. I think it's very odd. Does he -- does he want Medicare for All?
PHILLIP: What's odd?
AXELROD: Yes, he does want Medicare for All.
WRIGHT: I think that's an odd policy.
AXELROD: And you know who else does? A lot of Americans.
WRIGHT: Well, how are we going to pay for that?
AXELROD: A lot of -- the "Wall Street Journal" --
WRIGHT: I mean, it's a very reasonable question how we pay for that. The only answer I've ever heard is increasing taxes on the wealthy. And I've never heard an amount. I've never heard a figure.
JONES: I'll take that. I'll take that.
GRIFFIN: Well, hold on. How much should they be?
WRIGHT: A lot of the MAGA Republicans want --
(CROSSTALK)
GRIFFIN: No, but, well, let's have debate.
JENNINGS: They're doing that out west right now. People are fleeing to other states.
WRIGHT: Let's have the debate. Let's look at the four --
PHILLIP: Well, I mean, that -- but look, Lauren, that is what the --
WRIGHT: -- that pays 60 percent, 73 percent tax rate on average.
PHILLIP: That's what these -- that's what these campaigns are about. And I think that just the fact that we are -- well, I mean, look, I agree with you. I mean that if you're -- if Republicans want to make those arguments, they ought to be making them in these races.
WRIGHT: I agree with that.
PHILLIP: But it's interesting to me that in a lot of these races, they are not making the argument.
WRIGHT: I agree with that.
PHILLIP: A lot of other things. OK, last word here.
JONES: I just want to say about health care. You may not like the Medicare for All, or you may have a better idea, but what's actually happening is with these Medicaid cuts and these hospitals closing, you know, moms are having to drive an extra hour to deliver their babies.
[20:15:09]
I mean, there's real pain happening with these --
WRIGHT: But surely --
JONES: Let me finish.
WRIGHT: Sure. JONES: There's real pain happening with the health care system that
we've got and the damage that the Republicans have done. And that's really what's on people's minds, not how much Medicare.
WRIGHT: But even Obama's second term budgets had Medicaid cuts included. Some of them are practical.
PHILLIP: OK. But -- yes, but not -- we're not talking about cuts in a vacuum. We're talking about cuts that affect people in specific ways. They're not all the same. Right? So just the idea of cuts, it's how they're done.
JONES: Hospitals closing in the red part of the country where I'm from are devastating.
PHILLIP: All right. OK.
JONES: And the Republicans --
PHILLIP: A lot more ahead for us. Next for us, the president's deal with Vladimir Putin is getting some bipartisan backlash tonight. It's even being called illegal. Plus, James Talarico is responding to conspiracies about his health tonight as he challenges Ken Paxton to a debate. We'll discuss that next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[20:20:31]
PHILLIP: Tonight, Donald Trump's diesel deal with Vladimir Putin is driving a wedge within his own ranks as more Republicans say that they are not buying it. Four Republican senators joined with Democrats today in calling on the Trump administration to immediately reverse course. Even Trump's former vice president accused the move of betraying the tougher sanctions of the late Senator Lindsey Graham and what he fought for.
And now you've got two House Republicans who vowed to introduce legislation to stop the purchase of all Russian oil. Amid all that backlash, Trump claimed this morning that Russia and Ukraine agreed to what he described as an energy ceasefire, adding, "Do not break it." Meanwhile, sources tell CNN that the announcement was news to Ukraine's president and Russia has continued attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure as recently as today.
What a mess, Scott Jennings. I'm not sure -- well, I wonder if the announcement today about the energy ceasefire is about the fact that the law seems to actually prohibit what Trump said his deal with Putin is, which is to release Russian energy onto the world stage so that it can attempt to bring down diesel prices. He seems to be grasping at things, even if it means sabotaging U.S. interests in that war.
JENNINGS: Yes, it's a -- it's a messy situation because the war has definitely driven down by maybe as much as half what Russia is able to do in terms of putting energy on the world market. That's number one. Number two, how could you trust Vladimir Putin to do anything? I mean, to say -- let's just say they all agreed they had an energy ceasefire. Well, I mean, we have Vladimir Putin come to Alaska, and that was supposed to be a good faith effort to end the war.
He's repeatedly gone back on things. He clearly wants to continue the war. So I don't know how you could ever take his word for anything. Number three, the president is clearly responding to high diesel prices. And that's a good thing except, you know, we're getting in bed with people here that obviously are bad actors and are hard to trust. I understand the impulse.
I think at the same time I was doing this, I might be making a simultaneous domestic proposal, which is to reach out to anybody who would listen, Democrats especially, and say, we need more refineries and we need more pipelines because we have to get rid of our foreign reliance here. And that's put us in a real bind. So there's a lot of things going on. But when it comes to the Russians, I don't -- if I were the president, I wouldn't trust them.
AXELROD: I think that he has -- they have announced such a thing before, and it never materialized because Putin did not abide by it. I mean, there's a bigger thing here, which is Putin -- this is a bailout. It's not going to have any real material impact on diesel prices here. It's a relatively small amount. I think the energy experts have said just a day and a half worth in the first two tranches of diesel. But it will be important for Putin because he will get revenues that he needs for his war machine. And that's what Zelenskyy was objecting to that so offended the president.
The larger issue here is the president has shown a weird affinity for Vladimir Putin and a desire and a willingness to trust him. And he's done it on intelligence issues, and he's doing it on this. And he seems always to default to the position of siding with Putin against Zelenskyy, whose country was the one that was attacked.
PHILLIP: So -- and just to that very point, I mean, let me play, this is Trump really going after Zelenskyy over the weekend, and Zelenskyy's response. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Zelenskyy could have settled this war many times. Many, many times. And he chooses not to. Very difficult. That's a war that should have never started. And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president.
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: Well, with all respect to President Trump, it's up to our society, up to our people to choose one or another leader. And if President Trump really wants to have some changes during elections, tell Putin, give us two months, 60 days of total ceasefire, 60 days, and we will organize elections.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: It is so strange, Alyssa, the president seems to have an inability to grasp the moral element of what the U.S.'s foreign policy is in this situation. [20:25:11]
Ukraine is the country that was invaded by Russia. And Trump always seems to want to blame Ukraine for the situation that it is in.
GRIFFIN: Whenever it comes to Ukraine and Russia, the president's instincts are just completely backward. And I would remind him and folks in the White House that it's been about 25 years since the Russian leadership has had a major shakeup. If anyone should be holding free and fair elections and not imprisoning political dissidents, that should be the Russians, not the Ukrainians.
And I would also remind them that we have very credible reporting that the Iranians and the Russians have been working together, and they've been providing them intelligence to target our troops in Iran right now in a war that we're in. This is a problem of the president's own making. Diesel prices, gas prices are hard -- are high right now in part because of the war that no one wants to be in in Iran.
And now we're trying to bail our way out of it ahead of the midterms by helping our adversary and their unjust war against Ukraine.
AXELROD: Can I ask you a question?
GRIFFIN: It's shameful.
AXELROD: Because you were there at the time. How much of this stems back from 2019, when he called Zelenskyy and asked for his help and --
PHILLIP: And was subsequently impeached over.
AXELROD: During Biden and Zelenskyy was not cooperative.
GRIFFIN: I think a lot springs back to that. Vice President Pence was actually supposed to attend Zelenskyy's swearing in because, remember, none of us expected Zelenskyy to win that election and was told not to attend. They sent a lower-level delegation. There's something personal there. I do think the relationship at times has improved, but --
PHILLIP: So Don Bacon today says we need a president who's up to the task of leading the free world. That's in response to what President Trump just said there.
JONES: Yes. I mean, it's not -- it's not good when the country that's being attacked gets a lecture and the country doing the attacking gets a deal. Like it's just in general, that's not a good thing. However, there is something good that could happen here if there actually is an energy ceasefire. The Ukrainians are in a tough spot right now because they don't have the interceptors to stop these ballistic missiles that are going after all their civilian infrastructure.
And as you're going into the winter, it could be a deadly winter for Ukrainians. And so Zelenskyy has said, hey, we'll stop shooting at your energy infrastructure in the winter if you stop shooting at ours. Trump came out and said, there's going to be an energy ceasefire. Now, Putin didn't agree to that and Zelenskyy didn't agree to that but if this somehow unlocks the ceasefire, that part is good.
Now, giving money to Putin is terrible. It's rewarding aggression. It's prolonging the war. So that part is terrible. But I'm very concerned -- we're not paying enough attention. I guarantee you in a couple of months, when Ukrainians are freezing in the streets, we're going to wish we paid more attention to Zelenskyy's cry for a ceasefire against energy infrastructure.
PHILLIP: Yes. The problem, though, is that the president has made this exact claim before.
JONES: Right.
PHILLIP: And there's usually nothing behind it. And sometimes that's part of the problem. It's foreign policy by Truth Social posts, which is not backed up by anything. And then here we are just wondering if it was just all made-up.
JONES: Right.
PHILLIP: For our conversation.
WRIGHT: On the policy, really quickly, I don't agree. it will lower prices. Ideologically, I'm opposed to it.
PHILLIP: It won't.
WRIGHT: But I am completely out of step, as many of us are with American public opinion on this. Less than half of Americans today have a very unfavorable opinion of Russia. That's the lowest it's been in 10 years. And they invaded a sovereign nation. They don't care where the diesel comes from. They just want the prices to lower even if they don't. And so Trump uniquely is not ideological about Iran, Ukraine, Russia, China, even when he should be.
And he's out of step with George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Reagan on that. But Americans don't care in the same way if they think it's going to achieve a result.
PHILLIP: All right. Next for us, in one of the nation's most watched races, James Talarico is addressing the conspiracies around his health and revealing why he was off the trail for more than a week. We'll discuss that next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[20:33:59]
PHILLIP: The battle for the Texas Senate seat between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is one of America's most watched races. A recent "New York Times" poll has Talarico leading the race 51 to 45. But these signs of strength for a Democrat they aren't just in Texas.
Harry Enten is going to join us from the magic wall now -- Harry.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Hey there, Abby. You know, when we think about Texas, we think about the fact that James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a United States Senate race in Texas since all the way back in 1988. But you know what? Looking at the numbers, it's just -- it's not just about James Talarico when it comes to Democratic strength. We're seeing it up and down the ballot because just take a look at the polling that we're seeing for the U.S. House of Representatives.
I mean, you never see numbers like this. I mean, they're bonkers. They're bonkers. Take a look here. Democrats versus Republicans in U.S. House elections in Texas. You know, back in 2024, Republicans won the statewide popular vote for the U.S. House by 18 points. Look at where we're polling now, though. Look at the polling now. Democrats, although there's no clear leader, they're actually polling slightly ahead of Republicans on the statewide generic ballot.
[20:35:06]
We're talking about potentially a 20-point shift, a 20-point shift to the left, away from the Republican Party. I mean, woof, and you know what? This is not just about a comparison between now and two years ago. When was the last time that Democrats actually won the popular vote statewide in Texas for the U.S. House? You got to go all the way back -- you got to go all the way back to 1992.
2026 could be the first time Texas Democrats actually win the statewide U.S. House popular vote in 34 years. I mean, woof, and you know what? This could not be coming at a worse time, a worse time for Republicans, because you know what's going on in Texas? The population, it is growing. It is growing through the roof. Indeed, according to USA Facts, if you look at the state population growth, look at all 50 states and look at the state population shifts from 2024 to 2025, you know what state grew the most?
You know what state grew the most? Texas. Texas grew the most. I mean, woof, and you know what? You know what group is really helping to drive those population gains in Texas? It's the same group that is shifting most against Republicans, Latino, Hispanic voters. I mean, you want to know why Democrats are doing so well, at least historically speaking, in the U.S. House polling as well in the Senate race? It's Hispanic voters.
Hispanic voters in Texas elections. Look at this. In the 2024 election for U.S. president, Donald Trump won Hispanic voters. He won them by 10 points. He won them by 10 points. Now look at the most recent "New York Times"-Siena University poll when it comes to the U.S. House, look at this. Democrats are winning the Hispanic vote by 31 points. That is a shift of 41 points away. Away from the Republican Party.
And, of course, the Republican Party was really hoping to hold on to those gains that Donald Trump made with Latino voters back in 2024, when they did the redistricting efforts. But it turns out they shouldn't be counting on it. And now those plans, those redistricting plans may blow up in their faces. Take a look at these numbers. OK. Texas redistricting Republican U.S. House seat gain. I mean, the GOP initially hoped that they could pick up five seats, five seats from the redistricting efforts. But now the most likely outcome for the U.S. House in the great state
of Texas is Republicans may in fact pick up zero, zero, zero, zero seats, zero seats, upwards potentially of two, but definitely not the types of gains that Republicans were hoping for from Texas. So, again, it's up and it's down the ballot in Texas, where Republicans may be seeing their dreams turn into nightmares.
And Abby, whenever I'm with you, it's a dream. And therefore I toss it back to you.
PHILLIP: Harry Enten, thank you as always.
AXELROD: When is Harry going to get a promotional contract with Starbucks?
PHILLIP: Yes, that was a blast of poll model for everyone involved. I mean, Van Jones, it is interesting that the bet that Republicans made on places like Texas may have backfired. That's the first thing. I even wonder if, you know, we talk -- Republicans talk a lot about people moving from your home state, California, to places like Texas, to places like Florida. That might even be backfiring as some of those people, they're casting their ballots and they're making Texas a much more purple state in this cycle.
JONES: Yes. And I tell you, you know, I was in California in the '90s when the Hispanic vote was up for grabs and the Republicans did something really terrible. They did something called Proposition 187, and it attacked undocumented children in our public schools. It pushed the Latino community permanently away from Republicans. The reason California is triple blue right now is because Republicans antagonize Latinos and showed an ugly face to Latinos.
I don't think people understand the pain that has ripped through the Latin community watching people -- nursing mothers being ripped away from their babies, watching a home builders being torn away from communities. So I don't think -- that 40-point swing, maybe the poll is a little bit off, but that 40-point swing, it feels right to me. And the thing is, at least in California, they never swung back.
So Trump had a historic opportunity to hold this community close based on some cultural values and based on the border. And he has wasted it with the viciousness of ICE.
AXELROD: And as to Texas, as to Texas, you know, I think Democrats misread Texas in 2024 and assumed that somehow Hispanic voters were in their camp.
JONES: Right.
AXELROD: And Hispanic voters are a culturally conservative, generally culturally conservative community or communities. They're very sensitive to economic issues. They're working class in the main, they're small business people. So they're feeling the economic pain. And then there's the issue of immigration. They supported, in Texas, they supported the strong steps on the border. They were angry at Biden for not taking steps earlier. [20:40:00]
But they did not sign up for the kind of demonization that they are now feeling because of this -- the ICE.
WRIGHT: But if you're a voter that moves from California to Texas because you want to pay lower taxes, taxes are still on the top of your economic voting list, and possibly your overall voting list. I mean, I think --
PHILLIP: Well, I would say also, you could argue that that shows a sensitivity to economic issues, which is the worst issue for the president right now.
WRIGHT: Yes.
PHILLIP: For his party.
WRIGHT: But I also think people stick to their guns on the policies that they put at the top of their chart. And when we talk about Texas, these are two awful garbage candidates. I do not envy Texas voters. You have a crook in Ken Paxton, who was impeached by a Republican-led House, and you have a liar, James Talarico, who can't even decide if he wants to dismantle oppressive capitalism or he's a proud capitalist.
I mean, these are awful, awful candidates. And it's so close because Republicans made a fatal error and not allowing John Cornyn to stick around. And we wouldn't even be talking about it because it was so lopsided.
(CROSSTALK)
JONES: Say Trump.
WRIGHT: Yes, I'm fine. Fine.
JENNINGS: Trump there was an election. And there was an election.
WRIGHT: But I mean --
PHILLIP: Yes. That Trump weighed in on.
JONES: Yes, that Trump weighed in.
(CROSSTALK)
WRIGHT: But it's just an unforced error. I can't believe it's a tossup.
PHILLIP: The issue -- where we are, where we are, I mean, yes, it's definitely a tossup. Where we are in this race is so interesting because now, rather than any of these policy issues being at issue, the Paxton campaign is going after Talarico for being out on the campaign trail. Talarico says --
AXELROD: Out from the campaign.
PHILLIP: Out from the campaign trail. Talarico says he had the flu. He was not physically out on the trail for about seven days. He also responded to what has become a massive conspiracy in conservative circles. And here's what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES TALARICO (D), TEXAS SENATE CANDIDATE: I had the flu. This is the craziest thing I've ever heard. It's wild that someone can just post something on the internet, and then the media just runs with it. You know, I've heard credible reports that Ken Paxton has a serious medical condition that causes clinical levels of cowardice. He has asked for proof of life from me. I'm asking for proof of spine from him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WRIGHT: We'll find out on Wednesday.
PHILLIP: Yes. What he's talking about is, you know, we at CNN has a town hall with Talarico on Wednesday. We extended the same invitation to Paxton. It was not accepted. There was a debate invitation also not accepted. Paxton won't debate in this.
GRIFFIN: That is right. And hasn't.
AXELROD: And hasn't in 16 years. He's not debated his opponent for 16 years.
GRIFFIN: And I remain skeptical that Texas could go blue. But if there were a perfect storm, this would be the moment. So you've got Ken Paxton, an ethically challenged person with, like, the charisma of a shoe who is known in his state and had been impeached by Republicans, as you said, in his state. And then you have Talarico, who I actually think has run smart and run hard for Democrats.
The Latino vote is going to be huge in this. I think if Texas 15, a district that went about 15 points for Hillary Clinton, narrowly went for Trump in 2020, and then went 20 points for Trump in 2024 because of the issue of border security. The Rio Grande Valley, they wanted the border secure. They don't want to see families ripped apart. They don't want to see heavy handed ICE enforcement tactics.
It is the biggest missed opportunity of the Trump administration that he got this winning coalition, an Obama-level coalition, black -- young black men, low propensity white voters, Latino voters. And he has just done nothing to actually ingratiate himself to those people.
PHILLIP: I mean, you could argue that maybe that is also because it really wasn't about building a coalition in the first place because if it was and you would see policies that were designed to actually boost those demographic groups. Instead you've seen black unemployment go up under Trump, you've seen the Trump administration specifically target Latino people in this country, explicitly saying that they're willing to do it based on factors that include what people look like. So if they really were serious about it, they would have taken a
different tactic on several of those issues. And they haven't.
JENNINGS: Well, I reject the premise of that argument that he built a coalition of people that -- I mean, I mean, they're deporting illegal aliens. He didn't build a coalition of illegal aliens that voted for him to put him in office. He built a coalition of American citizens who voted for him to put him in office. That's number one. Number two, I think this all comes down to Republicans. It's a Republican state. O balance, a generic Republican beats a generic Democrat.
The truth is, there are some Republicans who just don't like Paxton. They just have to be convinced to vote. I suspect they're going to vote for Abbott, and they have to be convinced to not leave that blank. And they may not like it. And that's the reason all this money is being spent, is to remind you that, look, you may not like him, Paxton. You may have a lot of problems with Ken Paxton, but Talarico is a nightmare when it comes to your own personal values.
And if he goes to the United States Senate, he's not going to do anything that the majority of Texans would do, so that -- the whole race, to me, comes down to whether the Republican Party can put the Republicans back in the boat.
[20:45:03]
JONES: You guys keep saying all these mean things about Talarico. He's adorable. People like him. He's -- he is adorable. And you guys can keep saying mean stuff and call him a liar, that type of stuff. Here's the reality. He is giving you guys fits because he's a great candidate. He's figured out a way to run and --
JENNINGS: Adorable?
JONES: He is adorable. And -- adorable and smart.
(CROSSTALK)
WRIGHT: What are the criteria?
PHILLIP: I was going to say, I'm not sure exactly that is the way --
JONES: I'm sorry. He is a strong Texas man.
GRIFFIN: He's a high --
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: That's what they're looking for in Texas.
JONES: He's a tall Texas man that eats a lot of meat.
PHILLIP: All right.
JENNINGS: Van Jones put him in the cradle. Cradle Talarico.
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: OK.
JONES: He's a cheeseburger eating --
PHILLIP: Very quick.
AXELROD: Those Americans who elected him that you talked about, Hispanic Americans, have turned against him because they feel like their whole community is being demonized and victimized now. So this isn't about just illegal immigrants. This is about Hispanic people across this country who now travel with their passports because they feel they're going to be targeted.
WRIGHT: Who are so mad at Democrats they put Trump in office.
PHILLIP: As we mentioned --
JONES: And now they're mad --
PHILLIP: As we mentioned this Wednesday, Senate candidate James Talarico will come face to face with Texas voters. Erin Burnett moderates the CNN and Jubilee Town Hall on Wednesday at 8:00 p.m. right here on CNN and streaming live with an "All Access" subscription.
Next, after an infamous gaffe in her first debate, Lindsey Graham's sister just finished another debate in her Senate race. We'll tell you what happened.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[20:51:16]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? And if so, why or how?
SEN. DARLINE GRAHAM (R-SC): I'm just going to be honest here. I'm not on national security, that I'm not that informed on national security. So -- but I do support the military.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: You probably remember that flub from the South Carolina Senator Darline Graham. That was back in August. Well, the GOP nominee has returned to the debate stage tonight, and she is seeking a full term to fill the seat of her late brother, Lindsey Graham. She's going to face Democratic challenger Annie Andrews in November. So here's how they both responded tonight to a question about the war in Iran.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNIE ANDREWS (D), SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE CANDIDATE: My opponent is the only one on this stage who had the opportunity to vote to end the war. But three times in a row, she voted to continue it. And several days after one of those votes, she had the audacity to walk out onto this stage and admit that national security isn't really her thing.
GRAHAM: And why in the world would we stop now, when they're still dangerous and we are close to ending the war? Again I think the president wants to end the war. I know he does. We all want the war to end, but I support a strong military. I believe in peace through strength.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: So the biggest question in this race is, is South Carolina actually competitive? That would be -- that would be an earthquake if it were.
AXELROD: Yes.
PHILLIP: Yes.
AXELROD: That would be. If you follow the money, I mean, it's obviously a concern for the Republicans because they just put $5 million into the race. But it's -- you know, that would if there is a wave of proportions that, you know, nobody has anticipated, you know, then places like South Carolina become competitive. And she's a weak candidate and Annie Andrews is a good candidate.
JONES: And the fact that -- yes, the fact that we're sitting here 23 days and talking about South Carolina at all. At all.
AXELROD: This whole midterm is being fought on -- in the red side of the field. And this is the most extreme example.
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: Well, Michigan is in play, is it not?
AXELROD: Well, we'll see.
GRIFFIN: And I think New Hampshire is arguably in play. But I would say that there are more likely bellwethers for where the sentiment is going. I think Iowa or Kansas would be most more likely to go to Democrats than South Carolina.
AXELROD: Oh, yes. Absolutely. Those had taken more --
(CROSSTALK)
JONES: But we're talking about South Dakota? I mean --
GRIFFIN: There's definitely an undercurrent and a sentiment if you're talking to voters of a just deep frustration right now. The one thing I would say is I don't think the takeaway for Democrats should be if this ends up being a shellacking for Republicans, it's an endorsement of Democrats. Democratic -- the Democratic Party's approval ratings are still incredibly low. This will be a referendum on Donald Trump. Well, on Donald Trump in this White House. That's what this is a reaction.
AXELROD: Yes. And I agree. I think one of the mistakes that was made in 2022 is that President Biden took a less bad result than was anticipated, and he read it as an affirmation of him when it was really more about the Dobbs decision than him.
PHILLIP: So the other thing, though, that makes the South Carolina race notable is that Donald Trump handpicked her.
GRIFFIN: Yes.
PHILLIP: There could have been a campaign between other candidates. He handpicked her. And now CNN's reporting is this is a Republican strategist. "The only real concern for us statewide is Darline's race. And I think she still wins. If the election were held today, though, I think she'll only win by maybe two or three points. And I think -- I don't think that will be the case come election day." A top staffer for a different statewide GOP candidate told CNN.
I -- one thing I always, at this kind of juncture right before the midterms, just remind people, you don't get points for trying in campaigns.
[20:55:08]
You either win or you lose.
WRIGHT: Right.
PHILLIP: So even if you get close, it doesn't matter. If you lose, you lose. So in this situation, though, in order to keep it, a little bit ahead of the other candidate, Republicans are having to spend time and effort and money in a state that like, we don't really talk about.
WRIGHT: Because she is a weak and inexperienced candidate, but has very high name recognition because of her beloved late brother, who had very high approval ratings in South Carolina up until the end of his life.
Annie Andrews is a very strong candidate. My concern with races like this is I think Democrats will lose this state and possibly win in states like Michigan, for instance, who do not have moderate candidates, who have extreme candidates. And they'll assume they are winning these razor-thin races with extreme candidates because of them and losing these states like South Carolina because of the moderation, when actually it's despite those things.
There are structural waves underlining this election that will help Democrats nonetheless. I hope they don't shy away from the moderates.
PHILLIP: All right, up next for us, we have another special hour of NEWSNIGHT. We're going to talk about the president thinking about firing Kimberly Guilfoyle tonight. Plus, the rhetoric is getting ugly in Michigan, as we've been discussing, as the right turns to Islamophobic attacks against Abdul El-Sayed. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
