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The Situation Room

Economists: 40 Percent Chance Of A Recession In Next 12 Months; TSA Workers Start Receiving Pay After Trump Signs Executive Order; Christians Observe Holy Week As Pope Leo Decries "Those Who Wage War". Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired March 30, 2026 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:30:00]

DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR REPORTER: -- not only for consumers, and certainly it is very painful to fill up at the pump, but also for the broader economy. This is going to start to sting the longer this goes.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, and no one wants that, right? And you have some new reporting this morning about the U.S. falling into a recession, potentially?

GOLDMAN: Right. And this is really the same question, which is how long does this war go? I mean, if we are talking about, you know, May time frame or a June time frame, that becomes really, really expensive for people to continue to pay for $4 gas.

But imagine if it went up to $7. I mean, if you do the math and you think about, well, if every $10 that oil rises, you're going to get maybe about $450 in additional expenses for an average American family, you're looking at something close to $6,000 that people are going to have to spend over the course of a year if that's where we're headed, if we're going to $200. And so people don't have that kind of money.

This isn't something that, you know, we're talking about people have a ton of savings like they did in 2021, 2022. We've talked about this before, that people have dipped into their savings and now they're borrowing money. And a lot of folks are going, they're missing their debt payments. So how can they afford $6,000 in additional payments in -- for gas? They're just not going to be able to do it.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: As you know, David, we've all seen a lot of predictions of a possible recession for several years now. Why hasn't it happened?

GOLDMAN: Well, there are three leading theories about why we haven't gone into a recession. The first one is really interesting, and that is that we have a K-shaped economy. So we have very wealthy people who are insulating middle-income and lower-income folks from a broader economic destruction, basically. The second theory is this rolling recession theory where you have, one, part of the economy that's struggling, but another part of the economy that's doing really well. And so we've had these kind of little recessions in certain sectors. A good example of that was in 2022, we had a manufacturing boom, but a tech recession.

It's the exact opposite right now. We might be in a manufacturing recession right now, but certainly a tech boom. The last thing is really interesting too, and everyone's heard this acronym TACO, which is Trump Always Chickens Out. Well, that isn't just a Wall Street thing. Consumers know that too.

And they see President Trump making a big, bold threat saying that we're going to, you know, invade Iran, or there's going to be consequences for Europe not turning over Greenland, or there's going to be big tariffs. People front load their spending so that they get ahead of what they think are going to be price increases.

But if Trump undoes that, then you don't have the increase, and then you continue to spend. So those are three things that have been insulating us from a recession so far.

BLITZER: Good point. And I know you have a regular segment called Make It Make Sense. Give us a little bit more on that.

GOLDMAN: Yes, that's right, Wolf. So we are really excited to answer your questions. You can send them to us at makeitmakesense@cnn.com. Or if you have a video that you want to send us, you can do that as well. E-mail us your questions, send us a selfie video, makeitmakesense@cnn.com. Wolf?

BLITZER: Well, nobody's better at making it make sense. David Goldman, thank you very, very much. Pamela?

BROWN: Thanks so much, David.

[10:33:43]

And just ahead here in The Situation Room, some TSA workers are finally getting paid today. But is it too little too late for agents already two paychecks behind? We'll speak to one TSA agent at the busiest airport in the world, Hartsfield-Jackson in Atlanta.

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BLITZER: Happening now, some TSA agents are telling CNN that they're now receiving their first paychecks in five weeks. This morning, the lines appear shorter at so many airports across the country. It's not clear if that means long-term relief, though. Some 500 agents have quit since their paychecks stopped. President Trump ordered the Department of Homeland Security to pay the workers, but Congress has not yet approved long-term funding.

BROWN: All right, so let's bring in CNN aviation correspondent Pete Muntean at Baltimore, Washington International Airport. All right, Pete, how's it looking? It looks pretty good from our vantage point. PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Night and day. Night and day difference, Pamela. Look at this. I mean, this is the C-checkpoint at BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport that was filled with people on Friday. We're talking three-hour-long lines. Now to get through security here, you have to wait maybe five minutes, if I was to estimate.

We've talked to passengers here, one who told me that she brought a folding chair because she was so worried about having to wait in the lines here that were three hours long on Friday. I just want to give you a bit of perspective here. The line came in there at door eight, around the corner, and then went down the hallway here, came back down the hallway, so it went over and back on itself twice, then came over here past this Thurgood Marshall display, went down another hallway, turned around, and then ended up here.

Folks I talked to at the front of the line there, I'd say, how long have you been waiting? They'd pull out their phones and show me the stopwatch on their phone. They were timing it. It was taking people two hours at the evening rush just to get to that spot. Complete and total difference.

[10:40:13]

And I want you to listen now out of some of the passengers that we've been talking to who say they are acutely aware that Congress is not working right now and TSA agents are now getting paid, but this is not fully over. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, they just need to do their job. They're getting paid for doing absolutely nothing.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's going to be a horrible spring break if they don't get it fixed. Even though some workers are coming back, there's more and more people that are going to be traveling as we get closer to Easter.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Congress should come back from their recess and take care of this problem. This is ridiculous. How come they get paid and these poor TSA workers? These are the victims of this whole thing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MUNTEAN: Here is the good news. It seems from the TSA that so many workers are now calling out. The call-out numbers from the 28th, 33.5 percent of TSA workers called out here at BWI alone. Now ICE is here also helping with crowd control, but as you can see, Wolf and Pamela, not much in the way of crowds here anymore.

BROWN: All right. Pete Muntean, thanks for bringing us the latest there. Wolf?

BLITZER: Yes. He always does. And for more on all of this, let's bring in Aaron Barker right now. He's a TSA worker at Hartsfield-Jackson in Atlanta, the Atlanta International Airport, and he's the president of his local TSA union. Aaron, thanks for all you're doing. Thanks for joining us. Have you and your members received any of your missed paychecks yet since President Trump ordered the Department of Homeland Security to pay TSA agents?

AARON BARKER, TSA WORKER, HARTSFIELD-JACKSON ATLANTA INTL AIRPORT: Yes, this morning. And thank you for having me on. This morning, I did receive a deposit into my account, as many of my colleagues have. But unfortunately, it was not the full amount owed. So we're still waiting on to be made whole with that and really unsure about how things will move going forward with the next pay period.

BROWN: What's your understanding of when you'll get all the back pay, everything that you're owed?

BARKER: So we're trying to work through that now. It's the executive order. We're trying to figure out exactly what it means and if it will continue or if it was just for the back pay. We just don't know. The agency is sending out emails and letting officers know that the pay period that's missing, which is the half of the pay period, is supposed to be deposited this week, but we just don't know yet.

BROWN: How dire has the situation been for yourself and your fellow TSA workers? I know hundreds have already left. How critical is it to get all of your pay as soon as possible?

BARKER: It's very critical. I mean, officers have gone into debt. Credit has been shot. Evict -- officers have been evicted. Cars have been repossessed. So in order -- you know, that money is needed in order to get some sense of normalcy back to officers' everyday lives. This is terrible on all levels.

Congress should really be ashamed of themselves, especially while they receive a paycheck, and then they have the nerve to go on recess while they haven't done the business that needs to be taken care of. Shame on them.

BLITZER: Let me ask you this, Aaron. Do you suspect some of your colleagues will leave the TSA profession altogether, considering everything they've been through during this partial government shutdown?

BARKER: I do think that there's going to be a mass exodus of officers. I mean, not all at one time, but I do think that this is going to be something that pushes officers to go and seek some more stable employment where your income is going to continue to come through. And it's just unfortunate that, you know, officers are having to make that decision after investing so much time.

I've been with TSA for 17 years, and I have a lot of colleagues that have been with TSA for the duration of the agency since it's been stood up. But there is conversation about, you know, finding something else.

BROWN: And there already have been hundreds who have left because of just the instability. There was a shutdown last year, now this. What kind of an impact do you think that's going to have moving forward, just given all those who have already left?

BARKER: I think that it's going to hinder recruiting. I think it's so much media attention around this that it's going to hinder recruiting. People are not going to want to take the job. We're, what, about six months out from the end of the fiscal year, and we're going to do this fiasco all over again. So we just, you know, I think it's going to be some problems in the future.

[10:45:00]

BLITZER: And I suspect there's some college grads who maybe wanted to go work in the government and now have some second thoughts. Maybe the private sector would be a little bit more stable for them. Aaron Barker, thanks very much. Good luck to you. Good luck to all your TSA colleagues as well.

BROWN: Yes, I know we were traveling recently, Wolf.

BARKER: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you so much, Aaron. And we were thanking the TSA agents for showing up to work under these circumstances. It's so difficult, so.

All right, coming up here in The Situation Room, after a call for violence in the name of Jesus, a major rebuke from the first American pope. His message to those justifying war with religion, up next.

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BROWN: Happening now, Christians around the world are preparing for Easter this Holy Week. Pope Leo's first at the helm of the Catholic Church. The Pope raised eyebrows yesterday during his Palm Sunday Mass when he rejected attempts to co-opt God as justification for war. Many are viewing those remarks from the first U.S.-born pontiff as aimed at members of the Trump administration.

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[10:50:14]

POPE LEO (through translator): Brothers and sisters, this is our God, Jesus, Prince of Peace, who rejects war, whom no one can use to justify war. He does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them, saying, even though you make many prayers, I will not listen. Your hands are full of blood.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Joining us now to discuss this CNN religion contributor and Roman Catholic priest, Father Edward Beck. Nice to have you on, Father Beck. How do you read those comments from the Pope?

FATHER EDWARD BECK, CNN RELIGION CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I think he's quoting scripture and not playing politics. I mean, this is Isaiah Chapter 1, where the prophet is telling Israel with hands of blood that God turns away from their prayers because of their violence. So the Pope is really standing in like a 2,700-year-old tradition of religious leaders telling the powerful that your piety is hollow if your hands are bloody.

So people have accused Pope Leo of meddling in politics. He's not. He's simply being steeped in the oldest job description, really, in the Hebrew prophetic tradition.

BROWN: Let's play some sound from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has discussed religion and war in recent briefings and interviews, to give us some context around these comments from the Pope. Let's watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Snap the rod of the oppressor. Frustrate the wicked plans and break the teeth of the ungodly. By the blast of your anger, let the evil perish.

Blessed be the Lord, my rock, who trains my hands for war and my fingers for battle.

May the Lord grant unyielding strength and refuge to our warriors.

The providence of our Almighty God is there protecting those troops, and we're committed to this mission.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So talk about the significance of that language, especially when discussed in the context of this conflict with Iran.

BECK: Well, it's really significant because Pete Hegseth is praying for overwhelming violence against those who deserve no mercy at a Christian worship service. I mean, the Pope comes back with, what about Gethsemane? I mean, Jesus rebukes the disciple who draws the sword. I mean, Jesus of the gospel refused the sword even to save his own life.

So I think one of the positions here is actually rooted in the New Testament, and the other one is Christian nationalism, which, in my opinion, is a contradiction in terms. So I think it's really very interesting that the two are pitted against each other, and the Pope is kind of taking it on, you know, heads on.

BROWN: And the Pentagon has defended Secretary Hegseth invoking religion in his public statements by saying he is simply embracing his personal faith and the country's history as a Christian nation. That's what they say. But some critics argue that his language could divide what is supposed to be a secular military. What do you think, Father Beck?

BECK: Well, I think that this is Holy Week, right? So this is the worst possible moment for a Christian to justify war. This is the week when the church commemorates a state-sanctioned execution of an innocent man. I mean, the Pope said that Christians in the region may not even be able to celebrate Easter. As you know, on Palm Sunday, just yesterday, a cardinal was blocked from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulcher on Palm Sunday. So in this very week when Christians are reacting and reenacting Jesus entering Jerusalem nonviolently, like heading toward crucifixion rather than conquest, you have American political and military leaders invoking his name to justify airstrikes.

And so I just think it's really interesting that the first American pope is rebuking American power, military power. That's historic. It's never happened before.

BROWN: Yes. And he's doing it with that. And he's also been critical of the immigration crackdowns from this administration. Tell us more about just how unusual that is from a pope, let alone an American pope.

BECK: Well, it's unusual because, first of all, this first American pontiff is telling the American government that their conduct is incompatible with the gospel. So you have a pope who knows American politics, knows the ethos of the people here, maybe like roughly 20 percent of the U.S. are American Catholics.

[10:54:58]

So this is a real, I think, moment of conscience, not only for all Christians, especially for Catholics, because your pope is on one side of the question. And an unqualified defense secretary, I mean, that's just not my opinion. That's the opinion of American generals, is on the other side. So I think Christians have to ask, in particular the Catholics, who do you align yourself with? Where do you stand? Do you accept the pope saying Jesus is nonviolent, this war is immoral? Or do you look at people who really are having very difficult, I think, issues with trying to allow Christian scriptures to justify their positions?

BROWN: All right, Father Beck, thank you for coming on to offer your perspective. We appreciate it.

BECK: Thank you.

BROWN: Wolf?

BLITZER: And coming up, she was ejected more than 300 feet after that deadly collision at LaGuardia Airport. Now we're hearing from her family for the very first time. Her incredible survival story just ahead.

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