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Smerconish

Russia Accuses Wagner Group Of "Armed Rebellion"; Putin's Power Struggle In Face Of Insurrection. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired June 24, 2023 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:00:36]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: Crisis in Russia. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia.

President Vladimir Putin accusing the Wagner mercenary group of an armed rebellion and warns that those involved will be punished. This after Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner's leader, vowed retaliation against Russia's military for what he says was an attack on a Wagner camp and killing a, quote, "huge amount of his men." Prigozhin, a longtime ally of the Kremlin claimed that his troops have taken control of military facilities in the Russian cities of Voronezh and Rostov-on-Don without firing a shot.

One Russian general, Vladimir Alekseev, went so far as to call it a coup d'etat, but Prigozhin denies carrying out a military coup. The FSB, Russia's Internal Security Agency announced a criminal investigation of Prigozhin and urged the Wagner fighters to, quote, "stop the columns and detain their leader." In an address to the nation Putin said this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRES. VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIA (through translator): I repeat, any internal turmoil is a mortal threat to our stated to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia, to our people. And so our actions to defend the fatherland against such a threat will be severe. All those who deliberately chose the path of treachery, who prepared an armed mutiny, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods who will face inevitable punishment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Joining me now to discuss is Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, former Director for European Affairs on the National Security Council. Remember, he was the key impeachment witness who'd been on President Trump's call with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and then raise the alarm that Trump appeared to make us aid contingent on an investigation of Joe Biden and his son Hunter. He's also the author of the best-selling memoir "Here, Right Matters."

Colonel, many are still getting up to speed. So let's go over the basics. Who is Prigozhin? LT. COL. ALEXANDER VINDMAN (RET.), FORMER EUROPEAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: Prigozhin is a convicted criminal, and frankly, a closer associate of Vladimir Putin. He is somebody that's basically made his fortune catering to the armed forces of Ukraine, oppression, catering to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as running a private military company for more than a decade.

He also runs a probably the most kind of well known and prominent disinformation platform that was used to interfere in U.S. elections. He's a longtime, kind of a partisan for Putin, and quite effective with regards to this kind of, you know, disinformation and coups because he's been very instrumental in some of the unrest in Central Africa.

SMERCONISH: Right. And Americans might remember that in 2016, he was one of those, I think that number was 13 Russians indicted for an attempt at election interference here in the United States.

VINDMAN: Exactly right. So, what Russia has done with regards to hybrid warfare and fighting in the West, they try to kind of reduce the attribution to the state to Putin's government by outsourcing some of their conflict. They basically start to rely on oligarchs and oligarchs developing kind of tricks and tools to fight in this hybrid warfare against the West. One of them was this disinformation enterprise that's been long running. Prigozhin's been sanctioned for that. They've been playing in the internal politics of the U.S. and Europe for some time.

Prigozhin also establish this private military accompany, was funding it to run coups and mercenary activities at our Central African Republic. He was involved in Syria. When Russia doesn't want to use its own troops, when Russia wants to outsource to contractors, it relies on a Wagner, the most prominent of these kinds of institutions. So Wagner has been doing this for years and has some very trending hardened fighters coming out of Russia's elite forces, the Spetsnaz, the Special Operations Forces and the airborne forces.

It is quite a capable force during this war with Ukraine. It amplified its footprint by recruiting 1000s and 1000s of troops from prisons in Russia. And then having those troops fight and many of them practically die in the Donbass in eastern Ukraine, most notably the battle Bakhmut.

[09:05:03]

SMERCONISH: Is one of the sources of recent tension the fact that the Russian conventional military has sought to bring Wagner this witch's brew of both Special Forces and prisoners under its umbrella and Prigozhin has resisted that?

VINDMAN: You know, it's -- I would say for my perspective, Prigozhin and the PMC, all PMC Wagner in particular, were always kind of extensions of the Ministry of Defense of the security apparatus and Russia. They had some autonomy, but they relied heavily on Russian support, Russian munitions, Russian, you know, kind of transportation, assets, logistics. So they were at arm's length, but they were kind of integrated.

Over the course of this -- over the course of probably, you know, several different confrontations, they've distanced themselves and frankly, been ostracized by the Ministry of Defense as Prigozhin has been increasingly critical of Ministry of Defense Shoigu, of the Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov and other senior leaders. So, it's -- to me, I've always perceived there can be just kind of distant extensions of the state, but certainly clearly over the course of months. And this war, they've become increasingly difficult relations and they've separated, they've done their own different ways. And Prigozhin and Wagner have become increasingly radicalized.

SMERCONISH: OK. Thank you for continuing by the way to lay this out in bite sized pieces that many of us can follow. What is it that Prigozhin now wants?

VINDMAN: So, my initial thought is that he's likely -- he was likely looking to replace the Minister of Defense Shoigu and the Chief of General Staff Gerasimov for incompetence and effectively running the war. Still serving Putin's interest, still, you know, basically being the good lieutenant, going after those people in Putin's inner circle that have failed him, the folks that have been providing false reports. That to me -- there's a precedent for, you know, lieutenants going after folks that have failed the king, in this case, that being Putin. But something else something has been evolving.

I think the fact is that that Prigozhin has felt a sense of impunity with his actions. He's been given an enormous amount of rope, I think Putin felt there was some utility in Prigozhin attacking Shoigu and Gerasimov for not doing enough. But with that rope, Prigozhin became increasingly emboldened? I think that the objectives are shifting.

Now, it's clear that Putin is targeting Prigozhin directly. He's saying he's saying that Prigozhin is going to face consequences, the Wagner or folks that follow them are going to face consequences. It has now become an existential threat for Wagner to extract major concessions from the Putin regime in order to survive.

So this is now transitioning from, you know, what I defined as an insurrection for the first roughly 24 hours to a coup, where Prigozhin is going to be fighting for his survival, and he's no longer going to be serving as a good lieutenant to Vladimir Putin. Potentially, he's looking -- he might be looking to seize power. It is early days, it is shocking what's occurred. To me, this is a huge surprise, I was not surprised at all by Russia's war against Ukraine. I thought this is -- this black swan event kind of fringe possibility that something like this could happen, most likely from Prigozhin, but it's happened and things are unfolding extremely quickly.

One thing I can say is the biggest beneficiary of all this is Ukraine. Ukraine is going to have enormous opportunities. It's going to have -- it's going to be facing a completely incoherent Russian response. From the strategic standpoint, Russia has distracted with defending its own territory. It's shocking, you know, in -- Russia is losing a war and opening up a second front on its own territory, not a very, very effective strategy for winning the war in Ukraine. So, Ukraine is likely to make huge gains, probably fight unopposed. There's some early reporting that Ukraine is going to be -- is already making big games based on the absence of a coherent response from Russia. We'll see how this unfolds, but Ukraine is going to be a huge beneficiary for the unrest.

SMERCONISH: Colonel, help me understand, help us all understand the geography the lay of the land, is Rostov, the objective or is he headed for Moscow?

VINDMAN: So Rostov was certainly the operational objective. To me, it's quite clear why. When I was in government, when I was an (INAUDIBLE) in Moscow, I spent enormous amounts of time driving up and down the road from Moscow to Rostov. This was -- you know, I had a job to observe and report for the U.S. government at the beginning of this war in 2014. So I know the terrain quite well.

Rostov is the seat of Russian military power. It is the headquarters of the southern military district. It is the joint operational command for the war in Ukraine. To me, if he wanted to undermine Shoigu and Gerasimov and plant his flag, his first objective was going to be Rostov. He did that very, very quickly. Really took, you know, half a day to get there.

[09:10:24]

There are, you know, significant reports now that columns, hundreds of vehicles potentially are moving north already past Voronezh, halfway to Moscow, hours away from Moscow, and largely unopposed. Looks like some helicopters. Maybe some aviation assets have scraped and attempted to attack some of these cowboys. But Prigozhin looks like he's playing does pretty well. He has integrated air defense that is shooting down a Russian air assets that are trying to impede his movement. So he's making pretty quick progress.

What it comes down to is Russia has enormous state power. Has, even in spite of the commitments to Ukraine, it has enormous forces, that it can just grow numbers that can bring to bear, it has air power. It has, you know, paramilitary forces, it has no FSB response forces and things of that nature, but they're fighting a hardened military, a hardened mercenary that is seems to be pretty well prepared, has the logistics in place to get all the way to Moscow. So what Prigozhin has in his favor is surprise.

The Russian state is grilling from these events. It has -- Prigozhin has speed, and frankly he has experienced. Prigozhin has been involved in incision crews, on nurturing coups in Accra. He knows how to do this. He knows that speed is essential, and to get to Moscow is -- and the Kremlin is critical. And that's what are seizing on before the Russian (INAUDIBLE).

SMERCONISH: Colonel, I'm about to get a report from the White House as to the response thus far, if any from the Biden administration. A quick final question. If you were in your old job, what would you be advising the U.S. president to do now, if anything? VINDMAN: So, I would have at this point already have done contingency planning on this kind of scenario, what happens if there's an internal fracture either from elites or for the military. And I'd be looking at, you know, options off my shelf on how to respond. Mainly the biggest concern is in this territory, there is -- there are all sorts of bases, including strategic bases. That gets me very, very nervous.

Those strategic bases with strategic weapons, I would be looking very, very carefully to see if those facilities remain secure, remain in Russian hands. The worst case scenario, the fear that has played plagued decision makers for generation since the collapse of the Soviet Union is a loosening scenario. That is for me --

SMERCONISH: Understood.

VINDMAN: -- is the biggest concern.

SMERCONISH: Colonel Vindman, thank you. Travel safely. I know that you're headed to Kyiv, and we appreciate your being here.

VINDMAN: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Still to come. For months, the U.S. has been tracking the feud between the Kremlin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, which is now boiled over into what Putin is calling an insurrection. So, how will the Biden administration respond to these events? That's next.

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[09:17:10]

SMERCONISH: Continuing now, CNN's breaking news coverage of the crisis in Russia where the Wagner mercenary group has seized control of key military facilities in two Russian cities Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh. Russian President Putin calling this an insurrection, vowing to punish anyone involved in treason or armed rebellion. But Wagner's the leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, rejecting all calls to surrender, threatening Vladimir Putin's hold on power. U.S. officials are closely watching the situation.

For the latest, I want to bring in White House Reporter Priscilla Alvarez.

Priscilla, has there been any official response from the Biden administration thus far?

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, the National Security Council spokesman said that they are monitoring that situation. Let me read this statement to you. It says, "We are monitoring the situation and we'll be consulting with allies and partners on these developments." Now, as you mentioned, the White House is actively watching what is unfolding in Russia. We know as of last night that President Biden had been briefed on the situation.

But the administration is being careful and cautious as to when to weigh in here as this is a rapidly evolving situation. Now we also know that as of earlier this year, American officials had determined that there had been a power struggle between the mercenary Wagner group and the Russian government. And they believed at the time that those tensions would mount.

Now, over the course of the last few months, they have collected intelligence and I've been assessing that. And so, now we are seeing this power struggle play out in real time. But it indicated already that this was on the radar for the White House, and something that could have ramifications for the war in Ukraine.

Now, of course, a key part of that statement I just read to you is the discussions with allies and partners. And we just received a statement from the State Department that said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken has discussed the situation in a call with G7 allies and E.U. counterparts. And in that call based off the statement, the Secretary reiterated the U.S. support for Ukraine saying that will remain unchanged. So clearly there are talks that are happening behind the scenes as this situation is unfolding.

Now as far as the White House, we have asked for any additional information on what conversations the President may be having, we have not heard anything yet. But you can imagine that this president which has been in touch with allies over the course of the war in Ukraine would likely want to talk to those partners in the region as this historic power struggle unfolds.

SMERCONISH: I wonder when there's something to be said, whether it'll come from the President himself, whether it will be more from the State Department or perhaps even the Pentagon?

ALVAREZ: Well, we are in wait and see mode on all of those friends. Of course we just heard from the State Department only minutes ago that those conversations were happening with allies with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. And again, and then White House officials are cautious here as to when they weigh in because this is unfolding minute by minute. So, we'll wait to see whether we get any more today from the White House and more importantly from President Biden himself.

[09:20:18]

SMERCONISH: Priscilla, thank you for that.

Up ahead, more from the rapidly escalating crisis in Russia, where the Wagner mercenary group has seized control of key military facilities in two cities. My next guest, great granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev joins me from Moscow with her take on Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

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SMERCONISH: During Putin's regime with the Kremlin aggressively suppressing dissent, how does the Wagner group's Yevgeny Prigozhin get away with his blatant defiance? Joining me now is Nina Khrushcheva, a Professor of International Affairs at the New School as well as the great granddaughter of the former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. She wrote this piece for the Toronto Globe and Mail titled, "Could the Wagner Group chief be Russia's new Rasputin?" That's in, as in Grigori Rasputin, the mystic monk who strongly influenced Russia's last imperial family, the Romanovs, before the 1917 revolution.

[09:25:22]

Nina, thank you so much for being here. What's the view from the ground in Moscow?

NINA KHRUSHCHEVA, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, THE NEW SCHOOL: Thank you. Well, the view from the ground is very cautious is sort of quiet hope for the better and pretending that all of it is far away and not much is going on in Moscow. I actually went around the Kremlin worked -- walked for about two hours, and there's very few military vehicles, but the Red Square is closed, it's really dead shut, is if whatever is happening there is out of bounds.

SMERCONISH: What level of knowledge, what level of information to the Russian people even have about that which we're discussing today?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Oh, they have some. They have some. In fact, the news we're going on about Prigozhin statements, some of it in -- but only partially some of it about the special military preparation, how there was no reason for it, and how corruption just made it happen and so on, that part was blocked. But the part where Prigozhin says that we, the soldiers of Wagner were fighting in the war, and then we're get attacked by the ministry of defense, and the ministry of defense is out to get us and they are the most corrupt, that part was out. And that part really was broadcasts to show that, you know, our great military is being now targeted by this regrets (ph) of former of former prisoners that Prigozhin was being in charge of, so it's partial.

But also another thing you can -- you cannot get any other information, because I mean, I'm actually shocked that I have a signal to talking to you, because a lot of especially in the center, where I am at around the Kremlin, a lot of signals are being blocked all together, GPS is not working and so on.

SMERCONISH: We were eager to get you on the air. Quickly for that reason, I understand how knowledge of the situation is not widely shared, but nevertheless, I wonder how it will impact morale among the Russian troops who remain in Ukraine, surely word of the Wagner situation will reach them and have to have an impact on their thinking.

KHRUSHCHEVA: Indeed. And if Putin is able to overcome this, because obviously this kind of open mutiny just shows the weakness of his military operation, the weakness of his regime, if he's able to withstand, actually, it can help his position because you saw that the whole -- the whole slew of political politicians around him, they immediately denounced Wagner, said that it's mutiny and how dare you in the middle of the war, that the Russia is fighting for its own existence, and so on. So, in fact, if he's able to overcome this, then it will be helpful for the troops rather than not helpful.

SMERCONISH: But of course, the question that we all wonder is, what will be the impression, the opinion of the Russian people about these events? KHRUSHCHEVA: Absolutely. And I -- that's what I did. I did sort of a quick study around the Kremlin, and on the way to the Kremlin, and I asked people what they think. And you know, it was kind of a remarkable thing to see people are still getting married right next to the Red Square. And I said, well, aren't you afraid that something's happening and see those the military the vehicle right there and said, oh, whatever, we already paid for the wedding. And I'm sure Putin, they said --

SMERCONISH: Nina, I hope your signal stays strong. And we thank you for your expertise.

Is it me? Or was her signal starting to fade after the observation that she made that she was surprised she was still able to be with us?

OK. So we've got the view from Moscow. Let's get the view from Ukraine with Ben Wedeman, who is standing by now.

Ben, thank you so much for being here. What can you report in terms of President Zelenskyy to this response to these events thus far?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, President Zelensky has put out a message on social media in which he basically says Russia's weakness is obvious full scale weakness, the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later.

[09:29:59]

And certainly, what we're seeing is that this invasion that began back in February of last year, that the Russian leadership thought would last for a few days has turned into an utter catastrophe. In addition to the string of military defeats they've suffered, now we see these huge division within the various branches of the Russian military, whether it's mercenaries of Prigozhin or the troops of the ministry of defense, basically on the verge of fighting with one another.

The Ukrainians, obviously, see this as sort of Christmas in June for them. Suddenly, they are in a position where the enemy that they've been fighting for so long seems to be falling apart in terms of just their leadership. Now, what is important to keep in mind, Michael, is that Prigozhin now is in control of the southern military headquarters for Russia in Rostov-on-Don. That's the sort of command and control center for Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

Now, he says that his troops, his men are not interfering with the operations there, but it is hard to imagine how that control center can really operate in the absence of contact with the ministry of defense in Moscow. So, it's a chaotic situation for Russian forces. And for the Ukrainians it is a golden opportunity with all their troops and equipment, much of it recently supplied from the West, ready to go, to push forward their offensive.

Now, the other day, we were down near the front in the areas very small eight villages, or 44 square miles, that the Ukrainians had liberated so far. But yesterday, we were in another area where we saw there's a huge concentration of troops and equipment, essentially ready to go. And certainly, now is the time for the Ukrainians, many believe, to push ahead with this counteroffensive. Michael.

SMERCONISH: And, Ben -- Ben, to your latest point, it puts additional pressure on the United States, does it not, and our western allies to make good on the promises to the Ukrainians? I'm thinking, in particular, of the F-16s which have still not been delivered but for which training is now in progress. I've got to believe that there will want to be a push to give them everything they need to exploit and take advantage of this moment in time.

WEDEMAN: Well, Michael, I think that's their dream vision, but at the moment, they really -- it takes time to get the pilots trained, to get planes here, since nobody has actually agreed to provide Ukraine with F-16s. And really, now is the moment.

And one of the problems, of course, at the front is that the Russians do seem to have the advantage when it comes to air power. But I think what the Ukrainians have on their side, to their advantage, is the fact that the Russians are in a state of disarray. The leadership of the Kremlin is in chaos. The ministry of defense is involved in this brewing conflict with Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries.

So really the planes would be great, I think the Ukrainians would tell you, but at the moment, they don't have time to wait for that. Now is the time to strike, Michael.

SMERCONISH: Ben, thank you for that report. Still to come, dramatic video just into CNN shows a Russian defense ministry helicopter fired at from ground, adding pressure to an already volatile situation. Russian president Putin has held an iron grip on his county for 23 years, but could an insurrection led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin signal the beginning to the end? Former U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker is about to join me.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:38:03]

SMERCONISH: More now on the breaking news from Russia, where dramatic developments are raising questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power. Putin is accusing the Wagner mercenary group of an armed rebellion. The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his forces have taken control of military facilities in the city of Rostov-on-Don. He threatens to move on to Moscow if Russia's top general and defense minister don't meet with him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, HEAD OF THE WAGNER GROUP (through translator): Again, we came here. We want to receive the chief of general staff and Shoigu. Until they are here -- until they are here, we will be located here, blockading the city of Rostov, and we'll go to Moscow.

(END VIDEO CLIP) SMERCONISH: President Putin calls the actions by Prigozhin a betrayal and a stab in the back to the Russian people. And he says, those who follow him will pay the price.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): All those who deliberately chose the path of treachery, who prepared an armed mutiny, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will face inevitable punishment, and will answer both to the law and to our people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Joining me now with the latest CNN chief international security correspondent Nick Paton Walsh. Nick, what is the view from London?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes, extraordinary how fast this is indeed moving. As indeed it appears are Wagner's vehicles, we don't know how many, towards the capital Moscow. That is their stated aim, Yevgeny Prigozhin saying that they are headed in that direction.

Initially, it seemed to remove the top brass of Russia's military, but the kind of confrontational back and forth between President Putin and Prigozhin we've been hearing over the last hour suggests possibly, that essentially, they're maybe looking to entirely change the government of Russia. If they get there, unclear, but their progress is reasonably fast at this stage.

The governor of a region called Lipetsk, we should point out where this is, it is pretty much you might say half to two-thirds of the way from the Rostov-on-Don city. You're seeing pictures of -- from there as well, in which Wagner moved into last night, towards Moscow.

[09:40:05]

That suggests a very fast rate of progress of -- we don't know how big this column of vehicles is, but it is certainly moving pretty fast. The governor of that Lipetsk region goes on to say that his police, his law enforcement bodies are doing all they can to protect the local population, but he's not specific that they're trying to stop this column from moving. And frankly, if you were a local police officer, why would you put yourself between the seasoned fighters of the Wagner group and their target of Moscow?

So remarkably fast, how this is developing. The European Union has put a crisis center together to deal with this. Vladimir Putin is in the Kremlin, his spokesperson says, working, and he appears to make a series of, you might say, odd phone calls to Russia's regional allies and neighbors. Essentially, I think, trying to canvass support or remind them that he is still very much in control of Russia.

But this all began, Michael, important to remember, yesterday, with a lengthy speech from Prigozhin who has, for months, been needling at Russia's top brass for their catastrophic conduct of this war and its constant failures. But the speech essentially questioned the Russian act behind the war, the motivation and some of the key tenets of Putin's justification behind the tens of thousands of Russian lives that have been lost through the gruesome fighting we've been seeing. And also, Ukrainian civilian lives as well and troops is important to point out, as well.

That led, it seems, to some sort of response. The Wagner group saying that it's -- one of its camps inside Ukraine was hit by an air strike later that day. The Russian ministry of defense said it wasn't them, but that now appears to have sparked what seems to be a sizable and quite well-prepared group of Russian -- Wagner fighters to move toward that city, Rostov-on-Don.

It is utterly key in Russia's military infrastructure, possibly the main military city in the country, so close to all the front lines Russia has been involved in during the Putin years. And now, they are moving fast, it seems, towards the capital.

Incredible that we're even having this conversation, frankly, in a country which Putin has prided himself as restoring order and calm to even now, through launching this disastrous invasion of choice, has essentially caused one of the men, who was his bagman, a loyal henchman for so many years, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, to turn and now march on the capital. Michael.

SMERCONISH: Nick, give me 30 seconds on what you made of Putin's public address to his countrymen.

WALSH: Angry, possibly rattled, confused, unclear how in touch with reality he is. No room really to believe that he is going to offer a merciful fate to Wagner fighters who turn themselves in. And certainly, it is either him or Prigozhin at this point, I think, if you look at the way he stood there and made comparisons to 1917 for out of World War I by Russia because of the Bolshevik revolution. This, he sees, as a historic moment. And it is one, frankly, that he has been allowing to approach him fast over the past months.

SMERCONISH: Nick Paton Walsh from London, thank you for that report. Still to come, we'll have more on the latest from Russia. So, how will the rebellious actions of the Wagner group's leader impact the Ukraine war and Putin's grip on power? Former U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, joins me next to discuss.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:47:35]

SMERCONISH: Continuing now, CNN's breaking news coverage of the volatile situation in Russia in the wake of a rebellion by the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Dramatic video just into CNN shows a Russian defense ministry helicopter fired at from the ground.

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin has been forced to admit that one of his main military hubs, Rostov-on-Don, is now out of control. Putin has held an iron grip on his country for 23 years. Could this be the beginning of the end?

Joining me now to discuss is Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO who served as the special representative for Ukraine negotiations from 2017 to 2019. Mr. Ambassador, thank you for being here. Big picture, what are we looking at?

KURT VOLKER, FORMER U.S. SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS (2017-2019): Well, I think you are seeing, for one thing, the beginning of the end Russia's war in Ukraine. The Wagner forces, which has been the most potent force in Ukraine, are now in Russia, fighting against Russia. And even though Prigozhin says that he's going to keep up the war, I think the reality is his forces are going to be fighting Russian forces inside Russia. And any Russian forces remaining in Ukraine are not going to want to die in the trenches there, knowing it's a losing cause. So, I think this is beginning to unravel there.

In Russia, I think that this is really going to be a struggle of the state versus Prigozhin. I have to think the state is still going to pull it out, but I think it's the end for Putin.

SMERCONISH: What should be, what will be, two different questions, the NATO response?

VOLKER: I think NATO should stay and watch -- watch and see, see how this plays out. Keep supporting Ukraine. We ought to help the Ukrainians with some types of equipment, we have still not given them yet, like long-range artillery and cluster munitions and aircraft, because now is the time for the Ukrainians to really press forward as the Russians are going to pull back. And then NATO really needs to make clear that it is going to bring Ukraine in as a member for real this time, not like they said in 2008. It has to be real because we have to stabilize these borders again so that we don't have more wars in Europe in the future.

SMERCONISH: Is your response the same relative to Biden administration, same posture that you've just advocated for NATO? What should the president say today?

VOLKER: I think he should say that we stand by Ukraine's sovereignty and independence. Russia's war in Ukraine was a mistake.

[09:50:01]

It is time for Russian forces to stop the war and pull out. And we look forward to rebuilding peace and security in Europe.

SMERCONISH: To use the old term of Kremlinology, reading the tea leaves and so forth, one wonders what will be the response from the Russian people to all of this assuming they have full knowledge of the events?

VOLKER: Yes. Well, that -- I think that is a great assumption. Do they really have full knowledge of the events or not? A lot goes around in Russia on Telegram social media channels, but it is not always accurate. So, I'm not sure that they really do know. But I do believe that everyone in Russia knew that Putin's language about a special military operation, and that everything was going swimmingly, they knew that was a lie. They knew it was going badly for so many reasons. The attacks we saw on Belgorod a couple of weeks ago, the need to get convicts into the military to go fight on the front line, the mass conscription, the sanctions that we've seen. So, everybody knew that this is not working. The only thing we didn't know is how it is going to change, how it's going to end, and I think Prigozhin is now the one who has popped the bubble.

SMERCONISH: Mr. Ambassador, you have been paying close attention to Vladimir Putin for a long time, when you look at the video and when you assess his actions, what is it that you see today?

VOLKER: I see a little bit of disbelief and indecisiveness. I think that he doesn't quite know what to do, because he's never seen this kind of situation before, and it seems like Prigozhin has the initiative -- everyone around him, they are all suddenly quiet or maybe leaving town. And so, I think he is really perplexed now on what to do.

SMERCONISH: I guess, X the unknown, is what Prigozhin wants to do, whether this really is an attempt to change leadership at the top, meaning Putin, or among the military establishment, those that he has been fighting with, for weaponry and armaments.

VOLKER: Well, I think it is an effort to change the military establishment. That's clear. He's made that very clear. Shoigu, Gerasimov, and to say that they've done a terrible job of prosecuting the war and he will do a better job. But then think about it, if he controls the power in Russia, the military, the ministry of defense and possibly intelligence services, where does that put Putin? What is Putin's claim to power? So, I think it ultimately is an effort to change the leadership in Russia.

SMERCONISH: This comes, I guess, 16 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and amidst Zelenskyy's counter-offensives. How can Ukraine best exploit this situation?

VOLKER: Move quickly. Russian forces are going to be in a state of uncertainty. The volume of forces will be gone. The regular forces are probably beginning to feel that this is a failed campaign, and nobody wants to be the last soldier to die in a failed effort.

So, the motivation on the Russian side is to stop and get out. So, the Ukrainians should do both what they have been doing, both things they have been doing, offer the Russian shoulders a way to lay down their arms and surrender and also urge them to get out. And then at the same time press forward with the military offensive to show that there is no let-up there, that the Ukrainian forces are going to keep moving in.

SMERCONISH: You began by saying that you expect and hope, I imagine, that this is the beginning of the end, it would seem to me that getting the message to those Russian soldiers still on the battlefield in Ukraine, about what now is taking place, between the Wagner group and president Putin is of paramount importance, so as to cause, you know, mental fatigue, and a lack of morale among them. How do you do that psychologically?

VOLKER: I'm sure it's already happening. I'm sure the Wagner group is doing it. They're communicating that to the Russian military and I'm sure the Ukrainians are doing that. They have lots of meetings through Telegram channels to get things out for the Russian military as well. So, I think actually that that information is getting to them.

SMERCONISH: And a final question, is this a moment for NATO to -- including of course the United States, to push all the chips into the center of the table, in terms of that military support that we promised and have not yet delivered?

VOLKER: Yes. We should have done it before this. There was no reason not to, last week, or the week before, and we should still do that. Our objective should be to help Ukraine end the war as quickly as possible. You know, the fewer people who die, the better. So that's what we should be trying to do.

And then when Ukraine has seen that Russian forces have withdrawn, and there's some stable border again, we need to bring Ukraine into NATO quickly. Because that is the one thing that Russia seems to respect, that they know that they have never attacked a NATO country, only in the gray zones and -- so we have to close those gray zones.

[09:55:03]

SMERCONISH: The incrementalism that has marked our support thus far seems to have been guided by a declining fear of what Putin's response might be. My final question, are you concerned that Putin might do something drastic, given what he's now facing?

VOLKER: Well, what he's now facing is a fight inside Russia. So, for instance, I think what you're referring to is the possible use of nuclear weapons. Do you think Putin --

SMERCONISH: Yes.

VOLKER: -- would actually use nuclear weapons against a Russian city or a Russian military garrison? I would be very skeptical. And it is not only his decision, it is the Russian military that has to do that as well. Now, I can't imagine that there would actually be a use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and that's his real problem now, not Ukraine.

SMERCONISH: Mr. Ambassador, thank you so much for your expertise. We really appreciate it.

VOLKER: Pleasure to be with you, Michael. Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Thank you. More in a moment, on CNN's continuing coverage of the situation in Russia.

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