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Smerconish

Amid Global Protests, Israel Facing Public Opinion Problem; Pressing Questions About The Israeli-Hamas War. "Handful of Americans" Among the 200 Hostages Still in Gaza; How Might Israel War Impact U.S. Presidential Race?; The History Behind the GOP's Strong Support of Israel. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired October 21, 2023 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:00:06]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: Worldwide caution. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia. That's the title of an unusual advisory released by the U.S. State Department this week warning the following, due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises us citizens overseas to exercise increased caution. The U.S. finds itself in the crosshairs of an international backlash against Israel's retaliation against Hamas, despite the fact that Hamas attacked Israel and slaughtered more than 1,400 people.

This morning in London, 1000s are participating in this pro- Palestinian demonstration urged on by Hamas leaders. This follows similar demonstrations Friday in which angry anti-Israel protesters took to the streets around the world, burning Israeli flags and portraits of President Biden even an effigy of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They assembled outside many U.S. embassies including those in Indonesia and Malaysia, also on the streets of Amman, Cairo, Paris and Islamabad, everywhere from South Korea to South Africa.

Meanwhile, the Rafah crossing into Egypt was briefly opened this morning to allow the first convoy of aid trucks to enter the besieged Gaza Strip. For the latest, I'm joined by CNN's Clarissa Ward in Cairo.

Clarissa, when all was said and done, what was actually on those trucks and what is needed but was not provided?

CLARISSA WARD, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So Michael, on those 20 trucks, you basically had food, water, medicine, all those things desperately needed. But one thing that wasn't on those trucks was fuel. The Israelis have had serious reservations about allowing fuel to go in. They're worried it could be diverted by Hamas. But the U.N. is really concerned that fuel supplies are now down to maybe two or three days.

And that fuel is so desperately needed to power generators, which are the only things that are allowing these hospitals to continue to function to the extent that they are still able to function. Also important to note, 20 trucks is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Before this latest spasm of violence, you would have 455 trucks a day according to the U.N. of aid going into Gaza. Now you've had two weeks relentless bombardment, no aid, mass displacement, humanitarian catastrophe. So 20 trucks, the WFP is saying could maybe meet the needs of 30,000 people in terms of food, and they need to reach about 900,000.

That's why you're hearing full throated calls from the U.N., other humanitarian organizations saying this needs to be a sustained, continuous humanitarian corridor and not a one off, Michael.

SMERCONISH: Clarissa, big picture, among the reasons for Rafah being such a choke point is that at this stage it's the only perimeter of Gaza not sealed by Israel. True?

WARD: That's right. The Rafah border crossing is controlled by the Egyptian side. And the Egyptians have said, they also don't want to have a massive outpouring of potentially hundreds of 1000s of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, which is where that border crossing is. Egypt has been fighting an insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula for many years now. Egypt already has huge social problems, poverty.

And so you've heard Egypt's president say, listen, the answer to this is not us taking a million refugees that we simply can't care for. The answer to this is agreeing upon a sustained continuous humanitarian corridor, establishing humanitarian zones inside of southern Gaza. We heard Secretary of State Antony Blinken talk about that, too. But the issue is getting all sides to come together and agree on the conditions that would allow for that. And in the meantime, Michael, of course, it sounds like a cliche, but it could not be more true.

Every day, every hour is so crucial for the people inside of Gaza, who are not only facing relentless bombardment, but what the U.N. is calling an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding.

SMERCONISH: Clarissa Ward, thank you so much.

Now today at that Summit for Peace in Cairo, Jordan's King Abdullah called for a, quote, "immediate end to the war on Gaza and a lasting resolution on the basis of the two state solution." Joining me now is CNN's Nada Bashir, who is in Amman.

Nada, thank you for being here. Amman has been one of the scenes and one of the many scenes of an anti-Israel, anti-west protest. It occurs to me that we're only two weeks removed from the Hamas attack on Israel that Israel was the subject of such cruelty seems to have earned it no sympathy with any of those pro-Palestinian protesters. Why?

[09:05:12]

NADA BASHIR, CNN REPORTER: Well, look, I do think that is an unfair way to characterize what we are seeing happening in Jordan and in much of the Middle East. When we speak to protesters on the ground, the vast majority of them tell us this is not about Hamas. This is not about expressing any indifference to the attacks against Israeli civilians on October 7, in fact, for the vast majority of the people that we've been speaking to here in Jordan, and indeed, people that we've been speaking to across the region, this is about a conflict and issue, a crisis, which began long before October 7. These are pro- Palestinian protesters, they are demonstrating against Israel's airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, which as we know, have had a devastating humanitarian toll, a devastating human toll, that death toll rising as Clarissa mentioned, by the day, by the hour. And of course, for many here, this is a call for an end to the siege on Gaza and end the blockade.

As I said, for many, this began long before October 7. This is about more than just what we're seeing happening now in Gaza. This is about the violence that we're seeing in the West Bank. This is about the expansion of settlements, which are considered by many in the international community to be illegal under international law. This is a crisis and issue a cause, which is central to many here in Jordan where more than half of the population are either Palestinian or of Palestinian descent, and that is felt and reflected across the Middle East.

Now, look, you mentioned King Abdullah of Jordan there condemning the violence that we are seeing. And I think that something that he said today, at the Cairo peace that really characterizes and captures what many people on the streets of Amman and across the Middle East are feeling. Let me just read you a bit of what he had to say. He said, "The relentless bombing campaign underway in Gaza as we speak is true and unconscionable on every level. It is collective punishment of a besieged and helpless people. It is a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.

It is a war crime. Anywhere else attacking civilian infrastructure and deliberately starving an entire population of food, water, electricity and basic necessities would be condemned." This is the message from King Abdullah of Jordan. This is the message that we have been hearing across the Middle East. This is the rallying cry that we have been hearing from protesters here in Amman.

And as you well know, this is the message that we have been hearing from international rights groups, aid groups, NGOs on the ground who are trying to alleviate what Clarissa just mentioned, is an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip.

SMERCONISH: I certainly understand that. I guess my point was to say that, notwithstanding the history and complexity of the issue to see 10s of 1000s of people rallying as they are, just as not seem to recognize the suffering, that only two weeks ago, the Israelis endured.

BASHIR: Again, I don't think this is an expression of indifference to those attacks. That is certainly not the message we've been hearing from protesters that we've been speaking to. The focus of these protests is on the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe that is happening in Gaza. The focus, when you hear the chant, when you speak to people on the ground here in Amman and across the Middle East, is about what we are seeing happening in Gaza. And as you know, Gaza has been under a blockade since 2007.

People cannot leave. We heard that evacuation order from the IDF telling people to move from the north to southern Gaza, where airstrikes have continued. And of course, as we've heard from many on the ground, including many medical staff that we've heard, we've spoken to on the ground, they aren't able to evacuate most of the majority of those living in the north, or rather, at least some of those living in the north. We're talking about the elderly, children, some in hospital who simply cannot leave, doctors from Doctors Without Borders have told us that they refuse to evacuate because they cannot evacuate hundreds of patients and they will remain in place in northern Gaza to provide care for them. This is a humanitarian catastrophe.

And as we know, this is a densely populated area. It's about just over twice the size of Washington, D.C., hugely crowded with civilians. And when we see these airstrikes happening, we know the IDF says it is targeting Hamas positions, Hamas targets. But these civilian death toll we are seeing that is rising is in some ways, according to rights group, inevitable because of how densely populated this area is. And we've seen that --

SMERCONISH: Thank you, Nada.

BASHIR: -- in the mounting death toll. We've seen that in the mounting death toll of children.

SMERCONISH: Nada Bashir, thank you so much for that report.

Now, if things are already at this fever pitch, how can Israel and America hope to fight back against the terrorists without international condemnation? Before Israel has even launched its threatened ground invasion, is it facing a daunting public relations battle made worse by widespread online misinformation about the Israel Hamas conflict?

Joining me now is Morgan Ortagus. She was a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department under Secretary Mike Pompeo where she was responsible for messaging on sensitive and high profile foreign policy actions from hostage negotiation to foreign malign influence campaigns.

Morgan, how can Israel, how can the U.S. reduce this global temperature?

MORGAN ORTAGUS, FOUNDER, POLARIS NATIONAL SECURITY: Well, it's certainly a David and Goliath battle. So, the -- Hamas using a lot of online social media platforms and also telegram to get their message out. Israel is taking a little bit of a different approach. They know that they're not going to be able to convince most of the Arab street that that's almost somewhat impossible, so they've really focus their efforts since October 7 on Twitter. And that's where you find a lot of western journalist, a lot of government officials in the west, which makes sense for it's more of their -- more where their audiences.

[09:10:29]

You know, Michael, the only thing that they could do really is to look at this from a rapid response communications perspective. So what does that mean? That means that Israel and the United States have to be immediately transparent whenever there is some sort of action good, bad, indifferent, and make sure that they're getting it out via social media, via things like online briefings to journalists. Israel should is starting to, but should continue to up the amount of briefings that they're giving to international media so that they can get their story out. Of course, they're always going to face things like what we saw with the hospital attack, which was unfortunately trusted western media sources believed to Hamas, including, by the way, the United Nations, including members of Congress, they irresponsibly went out with the condemnations from Hamas without having the facts on the ground.

So that's going to be Israel's challenge. If you've got trusted western media outlets, if you've got the United Nations, if you have members of the American Congress, promoting disinformation before the facts are out, then what happened, that got the Arab street riled up, that got people protesting at both Israeli and U.S. embassies.

SMERCONISH: But Morgan, if I can make this -- if I can make this point, if this is the climate today, just two weeks removed --

ORTAGUS: Yes.

SMERCONISH: -- from the events of 10/7, imagine the global picture if the ground incursion is to come. I want to put something on the screen and I'll read it aloud. Tom Friedman, as usual, in "The New York Times" as a most provocative must read column. I pulled just one paragraph out. He said this, "If people cannot talk openly and honestly about a misfired rocket, imagine what will happen when the first major Israeli invasion of Gaza begins in our wired world, linked by social networks, and polluted with misinformation amplified by artificial intelligence.

By the way, to be fair to Tom Friedman, he is advocating that an incursion in Gaza be paired with a sort of an allegiance a pledge made by Israel to a two state solution. That's the thesis of his piece. But on the point that he just made that I read aloud, what's your thought?

ORTAGUS: Well, Tom isn't exactly right. In fact, he had a column a few months ago about what the Biden administration should do when they were actively pursuing the Saudi and Israel peace initiative. And Friedman had pointed out in that column just how successful Hamas and other groups have been at getting young people riled up through Telegram, through digital games, through online games, and also through things like TikTok and other measures.

We also saw this, by the way, it's not an insurmountable challenge. We understand the challenge. Don't forget, and around 2015, ISIS were producing incredibly slick videos on social media online. They were, you know, advertising the caliphate. What a wonderful thing it was to come to the caliphate in Iraq and Syria. They were convincing, you know, young women in Britain and in the west, to go be ISIS brides through their slick propaganda. So this is not something that is new. This is something that, you know, we have dealt with. I mean, basically, if you go back to the Arab Spring, if you go back to Egypt and Tunisia, most of the Arab Spring started via Twitter. So, you know, we've got a good 12 years here, 12, 13 years of having dealt with the Arab Spring than dealing with ISIS propaganda and what you're seeing today from Hamas.

SMERCONISH: Thank you, Morgan.

ORTAGUS: It is a massive challenge.

SMERCONISH: Morgan, thank you very much. Appreciate your expertise.

ORTAGUS: Thanks, Michael.

SMERCONISH: What are your thoughts? Hit me up on social media. I'll read some responses throughout the course of the program. Catherine (ph), what do we have? I think there is no good information during wartime. Each side always promotes information allowing their audience to infer that their action is right.

Alice, I get your point. But I also think that in certain circumstances, the facts don't matter. I mean, relative to the strike on the Gaza hospital, initially, it seemed that Hamas was able to make great PR value of that, notwithstanding that Israel has released intelligence, the United States has released intelligence today, there's a pretty good Associated Press analysis, all saying the same thing that the rocket didn't come from Israel. The 10s of 1000s of people who are now coming out in protest around the globe seem undeterred by that evidentiary presentation.

Now for today's poll question, here's what I'm asking, should Israel initiate a ground action in Gaza? Interestingly, and coincidentally, a reporter asked President Biden a similar question last night as he was boarding Air Force One. Here's what happened.

[09:15:08]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Should Israel delay the ground invasion until you can get more hostages out?

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Yes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: You heard him say yes. The White House quickly sought to clarify his comment claiming the President misheard the question. An official told CNN that the President, quote, asked some hard questions about what was being planned and what the effects would be adding, "We're not directing the Israelis, the timeline is theirs, their thinking, their planning." So now I want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish.com right now and answer today's question, Should Israel initiate a ground action in Gaza?

Up ahead, we are two weeks into the Israel Hamas war, there are so many pressing questions. What's the ultimate end game? What's the objective? What's the plan for Gaza? I'm going to get some answers next from a military expert.

And Hamas released to American hostages on Friday, but an estimated 200 remain. Meanwhile, the Israeli president said that his soldiers found a copy of Hamas instruction manual about hostage taking. So, what does it say? And did they adhere to that plan on 10/7? The journalist who has a copy of that handbook is coming up.

Plus, since the war began the Republican presidential hopefuls they've been trying to one up one another about who supports Israel more. When and why did this issue become such a key GOP litmus test? And what might it mean for the 2024 election?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:20:18]

SMERCONISH: We're two weeks into the Israel war. I have a number of very basic questions. Lieutenant General David Deptula joins me now. He was the Air Force's first chief of Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance. He was the principal attack planner for Operation Desert Storms air campaign and commander of No Fly Operations over Iraq in the '90s. He's now the dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

General Deptula, thank you for coming back. Question number one, is any ground action by Israel conditioned upon whether the hostages are released? I haven't heard express linkage of the two.

LT. GEN. DAVID DEPTULA (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE/FMR. CHIEF OF AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE AND RECONNAISSANCE: Well, Michael, that may factor into the timeline of ground operations, and what form they might take, but most likely will not be the overarching driver. Remember, the Israeli Defense Forces are already committee (ph) are conducting ground operations in Gaza is just not at the scale that's ultimately expected.

SMERCONISH: OK. And if we get to the level that's expected, what is the mission? Define the mission for me.

DEPTULA: Yes, well, I'm really not the one that determines what that mission is, the Israeli Defense Minister is. And he's identified three main elements, first, the destruction of the Hamas organization by eliminating their military and governance infrastructure. Second, stabilizing the system in Gaza, and finally implementing a completely different security regime, perhaps by handing it off to the Arab countries who are willing to step in to govern the Gaza Strip.

SMERCONISH: OK. Question three, and pardon my naivete, is the expectation that Hamas will remain behind and seek to be martyrs almost as if they're being drawn into a fight in the OK Corral? Why wouldn't Hamas flee to the south with everybody else?

DEPTULA: Well, it's an interesting question. And it's difficult to answer it unless you're posing it directly to Hamas. Why did they do what they did on seventh October? But the short answer to your question is, unless Egypt lets them out, which I seriously doubt, they're going to remain in Gaza.

SMERCONISH: Is there then going to be an exodus? Now it's from north to south, OK, Israel, presumably, has a ground incursion into the north tries to dismantle Hamas. Now, what? Do we repeat this drill in the south? Does everybody have to then come north, so that a similar operation can be carried out there?

DEPTULA: Once again, I think Egypt plays a key factor here. You know, they seem to be giving a -- been given us sort of a free out card by saying, well, you know, we're concerned because, you know, it's difficult for us to handle a bunch of refugees. Well, then where's the United Nations? You know, where's the concern for the Palestinian population? So, it's an interesting question, but the Arab nations in the region, starting with Egypt, are the ones that have a potential solution here.

But make no mistake, Israel is committed to the elimination of Hamas, and rightfully so. Unfortunately, civilian casualties, unintentional, will be a consequence of these operations.

SMERCONISH: General Deptula, how do we know when it's over?

DEPTULA: It's a -- you know, when what is over, I don't mean to be difficult, but their military operations, the governance in Gaza, the Palestinian settlement issue, I think what you're getting at is military operations. And my answer to that question would be when the Israeli leadership declares the elimination of Hamas as an effective military organization.

SMERCONISH: Quick, final question. Thank you for playing along with me. If half the country is comprised of youth, how do we prevent against them growing up hating and wanting to avenge for about -- for that, which is about to unfold?

DEPTULA: Yes, it's an incredibly important question. My answer would be, depends on if they receive an honest and truthful education regarding the source of the wrath that's affecting their lives. And the fact is, this war begin with unconscionable atrocities committed by Hamas. And unfortunately, they're suffering the consequences of those actions. So if they don't want to suffer the same fate, that just as you indicated, they have to stop their hatred of the Jews and their commitment to destroy Israel.

[09:25:02]

SMERCONISH: General Deptula, thank you for being here.

I want you to go to my website this hour, vote, should Israel initiate a ground action in Gaza? That's today's poll question at

smerconish.com. I'll give you the results as they stand at the end of the hour.

Up ahead, Friday, Hamas released two American hostages, a mother and daughter, two weeks after their capture. But what will happen to the estimated 200 or so still held in Gaza? My next guest has a copy of Hamas' actual manual on what to do with hostages. What does it tell us?

And why is it President's handling of the Israel war helping him more with voters? Is it because Israel has become a GOP issue? More on what's behind the Republican Party strong pro-Israel stance how evangelical beliefs and conservative ideologies have shaped the grand old party's position.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: As we continue to follow the hostage crisis developing inside of Gaza, we know that Hamas is holding about 200 hostages, including a handful of Americans, with a majority of them still alive, according to Israeli and U.S. officials.

[09:30:00]

On Friday, a Chicago mom and her 17-year-old daughter were released by Hamas after being held captive by the terrorist organization for nearly two weeks. The ground invasion inside of Gaza is possible, but maybe delayed for many had reasons, including how delicate the hostage negotiations play out among Qatar, Egypt, Israel, and Hamas.

As we learn more details about those captured, the Israeli president told CNN that in the aftermath of October 7, the army had recovered a hostage taking handbook from Hamas. Here's more of what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ISAAC HERZOG, ISRAELI PRESIDENT: This booklet is instruction guide how to go into a civilian premises, into a kibbutz, a city, a moshav, how to break in. And first thing what do you do when you find the citizens? You torture them.

This is the booklet. It says exactly how to torture them, how to abduct them, how to kidnap them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: But perhaps the most revealing part of the manual is that the idea was that Hamas was never supposed to bring back the hostages into Gaza.

My next guest has a copy of that handbook. Joining me now is Graeme Wood. He is the author of "The Way of the Strangers: Encounters with the Islamic State." He's also a staff writer for "The Atlantic" and his latest piece is on this subject. Hamas' hostage taking handbook says to kill the difficult ones and use hostages as human shields. Graeme, if the plan was to detain the hostages in Israel, why do you think that Hamas didn't stick to that plan?

GRAEME WOOD, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC: I think they are very surprised at how successful they were. You know, this handbook, which was found in one place that Hamas had penetrated was -- it suggest that they were expecting to be there for a prolonged period in the spot that they invaded.

So, it suggests that what they really thought was going to happen was they would have a standoff situation with the hostages in place where they found them. And who knows where that would be and how many there would be. They may have planned to bring some out to Gaza but the people who had this handbook were certainly expected to hoard food, hoard flashlights, batteries, and also to prepare to kill hostages and torture them to ensure their compliance.

SMERCONISH: Graeme, that would also suggest that perhaps they weren't prepared to house those hostages in Gaza. If the expectation was, according to the manual, that they were going to carry out these acts however they ended in Israel, then maybe they weren't as prepared as perhaps we thought they were for what's unfolding now.

WOOD: Yes. Remember that Israelis were shocked. The people in these kibbutzim, you know, who were being killed, that end up being surrounded, they were shocked at how long it took the IDF to show up to save them.

So, I think Hamas was equally surprised at how well it was able to get through Israeli defenses and that they had so much time, so much extra time where they didn't just have to just camp out where they were, they could bring so many of them back to Gaza. Almost certainly way more than they expected to be able to.

So, did they have 200 dungeons, 200 cots ready for all the hostages they were going to have in their hands, that they have right now? I think almost certainly not. It suggests that they were not the expecting that at all. And they probably had, you know, embarrassment of riches in the way of human cargo to bargain with once they got back.

SMERCONISH: Why do you think the Illinois mother and daughter were released?

WOOD: That I don't know. I know that the Israelis and their loved ones, the hostages, have been working very hard to find out which of the hostages have second citizenships, which of them have protector nations that might be able to put pressure on Hamas. And if they have them, then that's good for them. Because Hamas was certainly expecting to treat Israeli citizens brutally, but it gets a little bit more complicated when you start treating other countries brutally.

Now, I don't think they have any sentimentality for Americans, but it probably isn't coincidence that two Americans were the ones who were released first. And that it could spell some -- it could give us some predictions about how the rest of the hostages would be bargained for. SMERCONISH: The mere existence of a manual, a manual that you possess and have written about for "The Atlantic," speaks to a stunning level of sophistication.

WOOD: Yes. I mean, I don't think anyone is too surprised that Hamas was willing to be extremely violent toward Israelis. But, you know, you see it written out. You see it printed out as a field manual for how conduct operations. And that reduces to zero the probability that this just happened because Hamas was -- were excited in the midst of battle.

It's -- you know, there are times when soldiers in the field, terrorists in the field are more violent than they expected to be. But this manual says it in black and white that they were expecting to use electric shocks, that they were expecting to kill people because they were troublesome.

They were expecting to be extremely violent from the start. The way that the level of success of their violence I think probably took them off guard and surprised them.

[09:35:05]

SMERCONISH: One other observation that occurred to me as I was reading your piece is that to the extent they were following this manual, we don't know for sure, but to the extent that they were following this manual and the manual suggests that they were going to hold in place until this situation resolved, however it ended, the fact that they all -- except for those who were killed, that they all returned to Gaza, doesn't that suggest a level of communication among all of those from Hamas who crossed the border on 10/7? In other words that the word spread and, hey, instead we're now all going become to Gaza.

WOOD: Yes, a big portion of the manual is actually devoted to communication. So, if they were in a standoff situation within Israeli territory, as the manual envisions, they needed to be in touch with someone and it says, here's how you should be in touch with your senior commanders. They may very well have had that moment where they were in touch and the senior commander said, the coast is clear. Why would you stay there and have your standoff as expected? Come on -- come on home. The coast is clear.

So, that type of communication that you were suggesting is planned for in the manual. It may have been the reason for the diversion from the original plan.

SMERCONISH: Quick final question, if I may. So, the ground incursion seemed like it was a matter of when, not if. And now it hasn't taken place, it's been two weeks.

You may or may not have seen what happened with the president last night, but President Biden was asked whether there should be a delay so that there could be hostage negotiation. He said yes. Then the White House said that he misheard the question. Do you -- do you associate the lack of ground incursion thus far into Gaza with the hostage issue? WOOD: There have been many thoughts about why the invasion hasn't taken place. I think most Israelis thought it would have happened starting maybe a week ago. And no one is really sure.

I think there is some doubt about whether the invasion might be accompanied by the opening of a northern front by Hezbollah, which would massively complicate the difficulty of Israel's security. And I also think that there has been discussion, as we have seen with the release of the first two hostages, about those remaining hostages. Still 200 of them.

And I don't think any of Israel's plans -- pre-existing plans that existed before the 7th of October envisioned 200 hostages in Gazan territory. So, it was not -- it would not be surprising if they decided they needed to take a big breath and make sure that they had every eventuality planned for. And that would mean taking a little more time.

SMERCONISH: Your piece is must-read. Graeme Wood, thank you so much for being here.

Let's check in on some social media comments. Catherine, what do we have from the world of X -- Twitter?

Yes, but I believe negotiating over -- this pertains to the poll question, I imagine. The poll question of whether Israel should initiate a ground incursion into Gaza. Yes, says Allen. But I believe negotiating over it first to get more hostages released should be considered strongly.

And for what it's worth, Allen, I suggest -- I suspect that that's exactly what's transpiring now. Make sure you're voting. Go to Smerconish.com and vote on today's poll question. It's the fundamental issue, I think, of the day. Should Israel initiate a ground action into Gaza?

Still to come, why isn't President Biden's strong response about Israel boosting his standing in the polls at least thus far? Is it because Israel has become more of a passionate issue for Republicans than Democrats? The history behind the GOP support of Israel is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:42:55]

SMERCONISH: So, how might the war in Israel impact the 2024 presidential election in the United States? So far, despite it being a time of war against an ally, America has not been rallying around its president.

As "Politico Playbook" put it, "Since the shocking 10/7 attacks by Hamas, there have been four national polls in the U.S. that show Biden stuck where he's been for a while now, with an approval rating averaging about 40 percent."

"Politico" adds that this has held despite -- quote -- one, "A Republican Party arguably showcasing itself at its worst in the House." And two, "Biden arguably showing himself at his best in his response to the war between Israel and Hamas."

Now, polls always lag a little and voters have generally been approving of the president's handling of both Israel and Ukraine. And this week's prime time speech and his trip to Israel, they might change his standing. But for all of Biden's experience and noble democratic intentions abroad, Americans aren't feeling directly threatened and the economy is still the overriding issue for many.

The other X factor in all of this is that for American voters, the issue of Israel, which traditionally has been more associated with Democrats has become a cause for Republicans. A big part of that shift has been evangelicals who feel a biblical link to Israel, many of them believe the current conflict part of an end of time scenario.

A CNN poll this month found Republicans are far more likely than independents or Democrats to say the Israeli response is fully justified, 68 percent compared with 45 percent of the Is and 38 percent of the Ds. And since the Hamas attack on Israel, GOP presidential candidates have been battling to prove who supports Israel the most. At a rally two days after the Hamas strike, President Trump -- former President Trump said this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can't imagine how anybody who is Jewish or anybody who loves Israel, and frankly the evangelicals love -- just love Israel, I can't imagine anybody voting Democrat.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Joining me now is Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street, that's an advocacy group for a two-state solution. He was previously deputy domestic policy adviser to President Bill Clinton.

[09:45:03]

He has worked on seven presidential campaigns. Jeremy, thank you for coming back. What explains the realignment on the right toward Israel?

JEREMY BEN-AMI, PRESIDENT, J STREET: Well, I think you have a couple of factors underlying it. One is that the power of evangelical voters within the Republican Party has grown over the last three or four decades. And a very important strand of evangelical theology has been a belief in Christian Zionism and that is rooted in end times theology.

And there are tens of millions of adherence of that -- who believe that the future of their faith and their relationship with God actually depends on the return of all the Jewish people to the land of Israel. And ultimately, a major end of times war that forces the Jews in the end, either to convert or be slaughtered.

And that's sort of their underlying theology of tens of millions of end times dispensationalist Christians. And I think that's a very root base in the Republican Party that didn't exist 30 or 40 years ago. That's one important piece of this.

SMERCONISH: OK. And meanwhile on the left among the most progressive influences, it seems that there are some fissures that have appeared relative to Israel and these political dynamics. Assess that.

BEN-AMI: Well, I think that what you're seeing on the Democratic side is a recognition that the traditional way that pollsters and politicians have looked at the Israel and Palestine issue, which is that you have to choose one side or the other, doesn't reflect their point of view. There's recognition among a large swath of Democrats that one can support the right of the Jewish people to a state and for that state to defend itself and get support and security help from the United States. And at the same time, believe that the Palestinian people have an equal set of rights and that they too have a right to freedom and self-determination.

And when forced into a situation where the United States seems to be standing only with one side, which is the case under let's say a Donald Trump or in the Bush years, the Democrats said to themselves, we need an approach that actually is more balanced, more moderate, more rational. And I think that's the fissure that you're seeing within the Democratic Party.

SMERCONISH: I know of your commitment. I know of J Street's commitment to a two-state solution. So, I've got to bring up this Tom Friedman column where Friedman is saying under the headline, "Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake," that he thinks that any military action on the part of Israel has got to be paired with a commitment to a two- state solution.

I assume you agree with that. Tell me if I'm wrong. How realistic is that idea?

BEN-AMI: Well, the only thing that is not realistic is to imagine that there will ever be peace for these millions of people who live in this land if the Palestinian people don't have an independent and free state of their own. That's the only unrealistic position.

There are some on the far right who think there could be one state from river to the sea and expel the Palestinians and the Jews will have complete control. And there are folks on the left and there's Hamas that think that the Jews are going to be expelled and it will be a fully Palestinian territory from the river to the sea.

And there's other who think that somehow these two people that are killing each other non-stop will just lay down their arms, take down the walls, and live together forever in a peaceful one-state democracy. Those are the people that live under massive illusion.

The only way that the fighting will ever stop is if both the Israeli people, the Jewish people, and the Palestinian people have states -- independent states of their own with freedom and security living in peace and with an opportunity for a better life, something to live for rather than to die for. So, it is the most realistic way out of this. And I completely agree with Tom Friedman, the part of the American policy has to be to say to Israel, we have your back in a moment like this. But you have got to shift your force -- your course going forward.

SMERCONISH: I'm limited on time. But how realistic that Bibi Netanyahu, particularly now surrounded by those who surround him, those with whom he made a deal to return to power, how realistic that at this moment in time he would embrace that idea publicly?

BEN-AMI: None. No chance of Bibi Netanyahu, but we're talking about laying the path for a future. The president and other world leaders need to set a vision. The Palestinian people and Jewish people, Israelis and Palestinians, and the Arab world broadly, that vision can be bought into.

It is a vision of Israel normalized within its region. It's an Israel at peace with its neighbor. But one of those has to be a state of Palestine. And there's no way to normalize with Arab neighbors without having a resolution of the fundamental underlying conflict that we have just seen blow up.

SMERCONISH: J Street, Jeremy Ben-Ami. Thank you, Jeremy.

[09:50:00]

BEN-AMI: Thank you, Michael. Good to see you.

SMERCONISH: Still to come, the final results at least as of this hour at Smerconish.com on today's provocative poll question. There it is. Should Israel initiate a ground action in Gaza? Go vote.

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SMERCONISH: OK, gang. That's where it stands as of now, 57-43, yes, on the question of, should Israel initiate a ground action in Gaza? More than 30,000 votes.

I'll leave it up for the rest of the day as I always do. So, continue to vote if you have not yet voted. When you're there, you might want to register for the free daily newsletter. I think you'll find it worthy.

[09:55:00]

Catherine, what do we have? Social media reaction to today's program.

Today's poll is not a binary question. Full-blown ground invasion? Probably not. Smart and focused incursions to accomplish specific goals? Probably.

One observation, I agree with you. I mean, it's complicated to distill into just one question. And, you know, the president when he was asked, it was paired with, should this be tied to the hostage negotiations and delayed for that purpose? So, yes, it's not a perfect poll question, but it's insightful, nonetheless. More social media reaction. What do we have?

I don't believe that most people in the West understand what the history is or understand how complicated that part of the world is. I think the media should give the public a 101 class.

I totally agree with you, Rick. It's complicated stuff that I wouldn't profess to even know the basics unless I've been there, and I have. And frankly, when you say, you know, we need a history lesson, I don't even know if we could agree on the history.

I think we can agree right now that we're living in a very perilous time and that, yes, these are complicated issues. They have been around for a long, long time. I just don't know how two weeks after 10/7 some already seem to have forgotten what happened on 10/7. I'll see you soon.

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